Here we are late in the spring with the Cubs leading the NL Central while playing an exciting brand of baseball...and I can't stop thinking about Penn State football. (Obviously I started this post a while ago!) The 2024 season was so fun with the Nittany Lions securing 13 wins and losing three extremely tight, competitive contests to top-five opponents. And the team didn't just win: they were elite according to the metrics, too, finishing the year ranked fifth in SP+ behind only Ohio State, Mississippi, Oregon, and Alabama and narrowly ahead of Georgia, Texas, and Notre Dame.
All of that is cool, but there are two diametrically opposed thoughts rattling through my brain for the last few months: (1) Drew Allar was devastatingly awful in the College Football Playoff last year, especially against the Irish, on the heels of a decent regular season and strong showing against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game (yuck), and (2) the 2025 Nittany hype train has reached runaway freight train disaster levels (cool!). The team is getting significant buzz as a potential #1 overall preseason pick, so I'm finding it impossible to stop obsessing about the squad.
Let's start with the second factor. This team is going to be good. In the vein of 2023 Michigan and 2024 Ohio State before them, the 2025 Penn State squad figures to be loaded with veteran talent that eschewed an NFL jump in favor of returning to take another shot at a collegiate championship. I'll get into specifics in a bit, but it all starts at the top.
James Franklin is a great CEO. After many years of making puzzling, game-losing decisions in key spots, Franklin enjoyed a clean 2024 season. With shiny new DC Jim Knowles coming over from Ohio State to join star young OC Andy Kotelnicki and a barrage of experienced, successful position coaches, Franklin has an elite staff. Of course, that staff only goes so far as the players on the field that they get to coach.
Over at CBS, Bud Elliott developed a concept known as the Blue-Chip Ratio ("BCR"). It's an unsophisticated shorthand way to evaluate the most talented rosters. BCR tracks the percentage of four- and five-star recruits for each team over their prior four recruiting classes. Elliott started tracking this in 2013, so it conveniently covers the entirety of James Franklin's tenure at Penn State.
On its own, BCR isn't a requirement for having a successful season...not officially, anyway. But it sure does help! And it is unofficially a requirement for winning a national championship. From 2011-24, the national champion has had a BCR of at least 52%. More to the point, the only schools below 64% were 2013 Florida State, 2016 Clemson, and 2023 Michigan, all of whom were lead by QBs drafted in the top half of the first round. Each preseason, Elliott has taken to listing the 15 or so squads with a sufficient BCR to have a chance to win a national championship, using 50% as the cutoff.
We're going to look at two different components involving BCR. The first will be quite favorable to Coach Franklin: Penn State's own BCR over the course of his time recruiting in State College.
Wow! Astute Penn State fans will surely recall that the cupboard was awfully bare when JFF arrived in town. Nevertheless, it's striking to have a visual instruction of just how little talent Franklin inherited. He truly did an incredible job growing the talent base for this roster.
The 2025 BCR will likely hold steady in light of a strong and deep class being factored into the rankings. While the Transfer Portal looms large over the college football world these days, the overwhelming majority of elite rosters are built via elite recruiting. Penn State's BCR keeps the Nittany Lions in the conversation every year. Yes!
Sidebar: in looking into BCR, I evaluated some of the other classes in the country and...wtf, Oregon? The Ducks took one three-star recruit in 2025; everyone else was a Blue Chip addition. My God.
Nittany's strong BCR plays out on its strong roster. Despite his background as a wide receivers coach, Franklin's offensive roster is driven by an elite offensive line, a superstar running back tandem, and an absurdly deep tight end room. Phil Trautwein's OL enjoyed a wonderful 2024 season, yet the 2025 group figures to be better and perhaps considerably so. There are three top-notch, experienced OTs, an oddity in the modern game. For the first half of last season, RT Anthony Donkoh was the best OL on the roster. LT Drew Shelton enjoyed a strong season as a steady LT, albeit without the ceiling of his predecessor Olu Fashanu. Then, following Donkoh's injury, former five-star Wisconsin transfer and Nittany legacy Nolan Rucci stepped in and showed a new gear, culminating in a stellar Playoff run. All three are back. On the inside, RG Saleem Wormley is off to the NFL, but super-senior C Nick Dawkins is back at the pivot between two studs at G. LG Vega Ioane was a stud in 2024 and RG Cooper Cousins was so impressive pushing for a starting job that senior JB Nelson transferred. Interior depth took a hit when Nelson left, but between former fringe five-star recruit J'Ven Williams taking a big step and former Texas A&M RG TJ Shanahan transferring in having played in all ten games last year for which he was healthy, the two-deep is the healthiest it has been during my time as a Penn State fan.
Speaking of a strong two-deep: Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen form the top RB tandem in the nation. Losing longtime RB Coach and ace Florida recruiter Ja'Juan Seider to Notre Dame hurt, but former Temple head coach Stan Drayton is a nice fallback option and the RB train appears set to continue rolling. There will be lots of jockeying between Quinton Martin, Corey Smith, and Cam Wallace for RB3 reps with no redshirt shenanigans to worry about, though hopefully whoever that is lands in a distant third spot.
Despite the health of the foregoing rooms, Ty Howle's tight end group remains the gold standard on the roster. Senior Khalil Dinkins gets his chance to shine after serving mostly as a red zone/fourth down passing option who focused on his run blocking assignments, but the intrigue is really behind him among a group of guys that all figure to play a ton. Entering last season, Andrew Rappleyea was clearly behind Dinkins (and obviously Tyler Warren) in the pecking order, but a September injury ended his season and opened the door for true freshman top-100 recruit Luke Reynolds, who ran through and made himself a key part of the rotation with 266 offensive snaps. Dinkins, Rappleyea, and Reynolds would be plenty, but that's hardly where things end. Former four-star recruit Joey Schlaffer is at a career inflection point, but he'll have to hold off true freshman top-100 recruit Andrew Olesh to get snaps. Olesh needs to add weight in order to get in-line reps, but he figures to be a weapon from the jump. This room lost a 2024 All-American and it doesn't matter: it is loaded.
Now, we can't finish this part of the discussion about the offense without addressing the wide receivers. Coming off of a zero-catch performance for minus-three yards in the Orange Bowl, there's nowhere to go but up. Losing Trey Wallace to Ole Miss in the Portal was a blow, but the rest of the WR room getting a complete revamp is a win. Nittany brought in three new senior transfers, all of whom figure to start: steady USC possession receiver Kyron Hudson, All-ACC Syracuse Alum Trebor Pena, and slight Troy speedster Devonte Ross. Hudson and Pena figure to be solid citizens, with Pena's numbers inflated by Kyle McCord's monster year with the Orange, but Ross is the one that has me excited. He has the look of a guy that gets open a lot in college. Liam Clifford is back as a #5 for his final season, but the excitement for the group centers on the transfers and redshirt freshman Tyseer Denmark. Nevertheless, there will be opportunities for former top recruits like Kaden Saunders and Anthony Ivey to carve out a role, or for youngsters like Peter Gonzalez and even true freshman Koby Howard to make a move. There's no Jeremiah Smith or Ryan Williams in this room, but even having a Jordan Norwood or two last season likely would've pushed Nittany into the National Championship game. WR Coach Marques Hagans is getting a lot of love from the Nittany media; it's time for him to earn his keep.
Defensively, the story is similarly rosy at most spots. Despite losing the best defensive end from the 2024 season with Abdul Carter going #3 in the NFL Draft, the defensive end group is in great shape. Coming off of an outrageous performance in the Orange Bowl himself, Dani Dennis-Sutton elected to return for his final season. He'll be among the best DEs in the nation. The starting job opposite DDS is less clear, but there are three quality options. Zuriah Fisher has spent of his career injured, but he's on track to get a shot to play a big role. A trio of redshirt freshmen will got a shot, too: Jaylen Harvey, Mylachi Williams, and especially Max Granville. Granville is the hope for someone that could pop this year after reclassifying last year and earning meaningful snaps. Max Granville's injury really took a bite out of the DE room, although there's hope that new freshman Yvan Kemajou can step into Granville's role from 2024.
The linebacker room looks good enough. Tony Rojas is a borderline star. Dom DeLuca is fine, though his physical limitations remain. The group looked thin a few months ago, but the arrival of North Carolina transfer Amare Campbell resolved that issue. There's excitement for the return of Keon Wylie and the emergence of Anthony Speca, but now there's no pressure for those guys to have to play big roles.
The secondary is, once again, in tremendous shape. The safety room is headed by senior Zakee Wheatley, himself also coming off of a stellar Orange Bowl performance. While Jaylen Reed will be missed, Dejuan Lane, Vaboue Toure, and perhaps Alabama transfer and former Nittany Lion King Mack could factor in next to him. None of this is the most important thing in the secondary; that's the absurd star power in the cornerback room. The top four is awesome, led by A.J. Harris and Elliot Washington, both of whom played huge roles in 2024. By all accounts, Audavion Collins has improved dramatically and is well equipped to handle the CB3 role. In the slot, Zion Tracy was really good in 2024 and looks like he has a chance to make a star turn, with Mack likely backing him up. There's a lot to like here. Nittany tends to play a lot of depth DBs in key roles -- just ask Notre Dame's Jaden Greathouse how much time he got against Cam Miller instead of one of Nittany's best DBs last year -- so it's important to have significant depth here.
The special teams look solid, too, in part thanks to Riley Thompson getting extra eligibility at punter.
This all sounds great. So, what's the problem? Unfortunately, we turn to the second data set involving BCR: Nittany's record against teams with a BCR of 50%+ during Franklin's time at the helm. Yikes!
5-20. Ugh. And it's not just that: Nittany is also 1-9 in their last 10 games against BCR squads. They aren't getting any better at beating top teams.
Much was made of the path that Penn State enjoyed to the Orange Bowl in 2024, needing only to handle SMU at home and Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. Needless to say, neither SMU nor Boise State features a BCR comparable to the top teams in the land. Whether the CFP format remains as is or moves to the proposed 5+11 format, any champion will need to work through multiple BCR squads in order to hoist a trophy.
Penn State has become an extremely high-floor team at this point, and there's a lot to be said for reaching this level. It wasn't always the case under Franklin, and it definitely wasn't the case for the last decade of Joe Paterno's run. For example, Michigan State's Mark Dantonio spent years coaching circles around Franklin, yielding especially devastating losses to the 2017 and 2018 squads. The 2017 team, in particular, surely would've made the four-team playoff if its only blemish was a one-point loss in Columbus. In recent years, Franklin's squads have been winning those types of games, handling the likes of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Iowa, Purdue, and Illinois with relative ease, notwithstanding a few nailbiters. In fact, Penn State gets blown out in Ann Arbor and nowhere else.
I haven't counted the COVID year for any purpose for years, so if we set that season aside, Penn State's three most recent losses of 15+ points are:
- 2022 @ Michigan
- 2018 @ Michigan
- 2016 @ Michigan
The Wolverines are not on the regular season schedule in 2025. Great!
So, why isn't Penn State heading for glory in 2025? There are three reasons, all of which are sufficient to limit the squad:
- We didn't touch on the defensive tackle room above. That wasn't a mistake. Last year, the DT room featured an old, experienced five-man rotation, headed by seniors D'von J-Thomas, Coziah Izzard, and Hakeem Beamon. Transfer Alonzo Ford proved to be a nice depth piece. And the star, junior Zane Durant, emerged as the quick interior force Penn State dreamed he would be. When Ford got hurt and Beamon surprisingly retired in November, the 2024 squad tightened to a three-man rotation, far from ideal at the punishing DT spot. Penn State has struggled mightily against traditional, power-based Big Ten rushing attacks given its preference for smaller, quicker DTs. J-Thomas and Izzard were equipped to combat that in 2024. Heading into 2025, things look dicey again. Durant is awesome, but he remains undersized and is only one man. Ford will be expected to carry a heavy load despite having suffered a November knee injury. *Gulp* There's a huge amount of pressure on redshirt freshman Xaiver Gilliam, who is expected to step into a full-time gig. Top recruit redshirt freshman Liam Andrews could play his way into a key job while DeAndre Cook and Michigan transfer Owen Walfe (older brother of key target Luke Wafle) might get onto the field. There's basically no noise about Kaleb Artis or Ty Blanding playing meaningful snaps; that's two lost classes in a row. It would've been ideal for Artis to step into the 1-technique role given his experience, but that ship appears to have sailed. Add it all up and things look underwhelming at DT. That's very bad.
- Penn State basically never beats teams with a better BCR. They've only done so once since Saquon Barkley left in the memorable Whiteout win over Michigan in 2019. In order to win a national championship, they'd absolutely need to do so at least twice, most likely three times, and quite possibly four times. Winning at that level requires a massive program shift that otherwise hasn't had any indication of occurring.
- Drew Allar. Saving the biggest item for last. Allar is...good? Yeah, sometimes! Allar is...bad? Yeah, sometimes :( Allar had some wonderful performances in 2024, carrying a heavy load in the road win at USC and playing arguably his best game against Oregon in Indianapolis in spite of a pair of picks. Unfortunately, the Playoff then happened. Yikes. Penn State roasted SMU at Beaver Stadium, but a pair of pick-sixes by Rojas and DeLuca paired with Singleton and Allen combining for three scores and 160 yards on just 25 carries masked an underwhelming day for Allar; he produced a 13/22 day for 127 yards. Allar made two "WOW" throws in the Fiesta Bowl against Boise State on a bomb to Omari Evans and a third quarter strike to Tyler Warren in the back of the endzone, but on the whole, the Penn State performance was once again paced by a defense that nabbed a trio of interceptions and a rushing attack where Singleton and Allen amassed 221 yards across 29 carries. Then the Orange Bowl happened. The defense did its job with two more INTs and a stifling performance against Notre Dame's rushing attack. The Nittany RBs did their job, contributing 166 yards over 34 carries with a trio of scores. But Allar laid an absolute egg. His final stat line -- 12/23 for 135 yards and a season-ending interception -- really undersells just how badly he struggled. He was the difference in the game, especially on a pair of brutal misses to Singleton: he badly overthrew Singleton streaking down the sideline on an open wheel route and underthrew him horribly on an arrow route on the first play of the second quarter, turning a gimme touchdown into a field goal. The Penn State offense took a huge hit when Beau Pribula (rightly) elected to transfer to Missouri in December in search of a starting job and life-changing payday. Pribula was huge for Penn State in 2024, playing 173 QB snaps and at least three QB snaps in all 13 games for which he was on the roster. Pribula would've been a much better fit for what Nittany wanted to do in Miami. Decent Allar would've been a much better fit, too. Unfortunately, bad Allar showed up and threw three terrible interceptions: the first two were wiped out by pass interference penalties, but the throws were awful, especially the badly-underthrown ball into triple coverage where Warren was actually open running toward the back pylon. The Orange Bowl continued Allar's trend of laying eggs against top competition following a 12/20 for 146 yards and an interception showing against Ohio State at home and miserable performances against both Ohio State and Michigan in 2023. College football players routinely get a lot better over the course of their careers. Penn State needs Allar to get a ton better in 2025 to have a realistic chance to win some of the close games that have ended their hopes in recent seasons.
With all of the above said, here's my pick for the Penn State season, followed by CFP picks.
- WIN v. Nevada: 52-7
- WIN v. FIU: 59-10
- WIN v. Villanova: 73-0
- LOSS v. Oregon: 20-27
- This would be a reasonably significant upset for the Ducks. They have to travel three time zones and Nittany averages outperforming the spread by just over three points during the Whiteout; with PSU currently a 4.5-point favorite, that would make them a 7.5-point adjusted favorite. An outright loss would be tough to stomach for Penn State. Conversely, getting a win over Dan Lanning's Ducks -- even as they break in new QB Dante Moore -- would be absolutely massive for James Franklin.
- WIN @ UCLA: 31-24
- WIN v. Northwestern: 45-13
- WIN @ Iowa: 24-17
- LOSS @ Ohio State: 24-30
- WIN v. Indiana: 31-17
- WIN @ Michigan State: 30-27
- WIN v. Nebraska: 28-7
- WIN @ Rutgers: 40-14
Big Ten Standings
- Ohio State (13-0, 10-0)
- Oregon (11-2, 8-2)
- Michigan (10-2, 7-2)
- Penn State (10-2, 7-2)
- Iowa (9-3, 6-3)
- USC (8-4, 6-3)
- Illinois (8-4, 5-4)
- Nebraska (7-5, 4-5)
- Wisconsin (7-5, 5-4)
- Washington (7-5, 4-5)
- Minnesota (6-6, 4-5)
- UCLA (6-6, 4-5)
- Indiana (6-6, 3-6)
- Michigan State (5-7, 3-6)
- Maryland (5-7, 2-7)
- Rutgers (5-7, 2-7)
- Northwestern (4-8, 2-7)
- Purdue (2-10, 0-9)
CFP Bracket
Seeds
#1 Ohio State (13-0) (Big Ten champion)
#2 Clemson (13-0) (ACC champion)
#3 Alabama (12-1) (SEC champion)
#4 Notre Dame (12-0)
#5 Georgia (11-2)
#6 Oregon (11-2)
#7 Texas (10-2)
#8 Michigan (10-2)
#9 Miami (10-3)
#10 Penn State (10-2)
#11 Utah (11-2) (Big 12 champion)
#12 Memphis (13-0) (American champion)
First Round
#12 Memphis @ #5 Georgia
#11 Utah @ #6 Oregon
#10 Penn State @ #7 Texas
#9 Miami @ #8 Michigan
Quarterfinals
Rose Bowl: #1 Ohio State v. #8 Michigan
Orange Bowl: #2 Clemson v. #7 Texas
Sugar Bowl: #3 Alabama v. #6 Oregon
Cotton Bowl: #4 Notre Dame v. #5 Georgia
Semifinals
Peach Bowl: #1 Ohio State v. #5 Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: #3 Alabama v. #7 Texas
Championship
@ Miami: #3 Alabama v. #5 Georgia
