Duck Hunting: Previewing the Penn State-Oregon Whiteout

Welcome to the Whiteout!

In two days, the Penn State Nittany Lions will welcome the Oregon Ducks to Beaver Stadium following Oregon's 2,400-mile cross-country trip to play a regular season college football game. Now there's a lot to unpack from that sentence, but we're going to focus our efforts on the football players and coaching staffs taking part in the game.

We'll start with the Ducks. They're awesome. This is no surprise to anybody that follows college football at all. While they're sort of starting a first-timer at QB, there are two massive caveats to this. First, Dante Moore did make five starts at UCLA in 2023, so even though he only attempted eight passes with the Ducks in 2024, he threw 219 balls for the Bruins in 2023. Second, Moore is a superstar prospect. He trailed only Arch Manning and Alabama DE Keon Keeley in the On3 composite recruiting rankings, coming in just ahead of WR Zachariah Branch and S Caleb Downs. Moore has size, pedigree, experience, a huge arm, and loads of production thus far in 2025. He moves around in the pocket with comfort and ease. He's been extremely productive against overmatched competition this year, completing 74.7% of his throws and averaging 10.1 yards per attempt. Sure, it's crummy competition, but that's what you're supposed to do against bad teams.

Although Moore doesn't have WR Evan Stewart available to him this year, there's still more than enough talent at the skill position spots. WR Dakorien Moore, the #1 WR in the 2025 class, is already a star. TE Kenyon Sadiq is a star, too. There's more than enough depth behind those two to field an elite pass-catching unit. The offensive line lost OTs Josh Conerly Jr. and Ajani Cornelius to the NFL, but three new transfer starters mean that the OL is strong and deep.

The defense lacks the same big-name star power as the offense, but there's incredible depth with big-time collegiate production. LB Bryce Boettcher is a tackling machine, but the three names of most renown here are a pair of DBs and an edge. The DBs, CB Brandon Finney and S Dillon Thieneman, should be familiar to Penn State fans. Finney was an elite recruit from McDonogh in Baltimore, long thought to be a Penn State lean before surprisingly locking in with the Ducks and immediately forcing his way onto the field as a true freshman, amassing 101 snaps over his first four college games. Thieneman has had a solid start to 2024, but he is best known for his starring role at Purdue over the two prior seasons. The scary edge, Matayo Uiagalelei, was largely held in check by the Nittany OL in last year's Big Ten Championship Game, but he looks noticeably improved. The Oregon defense has allowed just 37 points in four games thus far in 2025.

Add it all up and we have the nation's #1 team by SP+. Oregon boasts the nation's #2 offense and #5 defense per Bill Connelly's metric. This is a confident, loaded team -- coach Dan Lanning has signed a top-seven recruiting class in three consecutive cycles with another on the way. Lanning's squad has just two losses in their last 26 games. *Gulp*

But Penn State is no slouch, at least not on paper.

Entering the 2025 season, the Penn State rushing offense looked awesome! And, so far, they've been...fine. The offensive line is incredibly talented with a top-notch two deep. They struggled a bit against Nevada in the opener, but the rushing attack picked up in a big way against FIU and Villanova. The OT situation remains remarkable. LT Drew Shelton is in his second year as a full-time starter, but he has over 1,900 career snaps at LT. RT Nolan Rucci underwhelmed at Wisconsin before transferring and struggled to make an impact early at Penn State, but by the end of 2024, he was the team's best offensive lineman. RG Anthony Donkah was starring at RT before suffering an injury last year, but he's too good to back up Rucci, so he's now playing the role of brick wall on the interior. C Nick Dawkins has nearly 1,400 collegiate snaps. And LG Vega Ioane, in his third year as a starter, has been consistently the best member of the group.

Seniors Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton have looked quite different thus far in 2025 -- Allen looks very impressive whereas Singleton looks a bit sluggish -- there's elite talent here. The TE room is led by emerging star Luke Reynolds. Senior Khalil Dinkins has disappointed a bit, but Andrew Rappleyea is back from injury, so the room remains strong. 

Of course, you cannot discuss the Penn State offense without discussing the wide receivers. They've been good enough. USC transfer Kyron Hudson has flashed some top-end skills. Troy transfer Devonte Ross was injured in camp and appears less explosive than expected. And Syracuse transfer Trebor Pena looks like the reliable, solid citizen he was expected to be. There's no real star power here, but there is competence...so far. This trio wasn't brought in to face Nevada, FIU, or Villanova.

The offense has been extremely underwhelming thus far. There's been a lot of discussion that the PSU offense has been "working on things" in the first few weeks of the season. That's fine...but the things that they're working on aren't working. And they're primarily working on having Drew Allar push the ball down the field.

I remain extremely confident in the Penn State rushing attack to gobble up yards against the Oregon defense. But I have no confidence at this point that Allar will make plays that help win the game.

History makes it hard to be too hopeful. Allar hasn't lacked for opportunity against quality competition. In his career, he has started 10 games against AP Poll-ranked opponents. The results have been underwhelming, to put it mildly.

Those results aren't pretty. But they hide just how ugly Allar's production has been against teams with similar talent levels. Back in the summer, I took a deep dive on the "Blue Chip Ratio" of Penn State's rosters under James Franklin and looked at Franklin's results against BCR peers; the results are ugly. Updating the chart above, the BCR peers would cause us to remove Iowa, Illinois, SMU, and Boise State as teams where Penn State's roster absolutely dwarfed the talent of the opposition.

Hey, the yards per game increased -- that's good! Unfortunately, everything else looks decidedly worse with his putrid completion percentage dipping below 50%, his TD/game rate dropping, and his INT/game increasing.

I don't need to explain to anyone whether the 2025 Oregon roster aligns them with Iowa, Illinois, SMU, and Boise State...or Ohio State, Michigan, Mississippi, Notre Dame, and 2024 Oregon. 2025 Oregon is absurdly talented. Allar will need to find a way to produce a career-best game against the Ducks, right?

Maybe...but maybe not.

It's plenty conceivable that Penn State has two completely distinct paths to victory. One of them involves a shootout akin to last year's matchup in Indianapolis but with Oregon producing less with Moore at the helm than they did when Dillon Gabriel was in charge. Even though that shootout featured 82 points, the Penn State WRs totaled just six grabs for 81 yards. The rushing attack absolutely gashed the Ducks, gobbling up 297 yards on just 34 attempts. If the Penn State offense moves the ball like that on the ground again, they could outscore a potent Ducks attack. After all, Penn State features SP+'s 9th ranked offense in spite of Allar's struggles.

But it'll probably be easier to just slow Oregon down.

The Penn State defense remains loaded in ways both unexpected and surprising. The secondary has been wonderful. No surprise there. Star CB AJ Harris hasn't made an impact primarily because nobody has thrown the ball in his general direction. There's still star power in there. Across from him and in the slot, Zion Tracy, Elliot Washington, and Audavion Collins have all produced in returning roles, but the group has gotten a big boost from newcomers Jahmir Joseph and especially Daryus Dixson; I suspect we won't see any of Joseph or Dixson on Saturday, but they may have forced their way into roles. The safety rotation will likely tighten, too, but led by Zakee Wheatley and King Mack, that's OK. I'll be interested to see how much Antoine Belgrave-Shorter plays after winning a starting job in camp, then scuffling a bit.

The linebacker group lacks depth, but thankfully, both Tony Rojas and North Carolina transfer Amare Campbell have starred thus far. Dom DeLuca would be a terrible mismatch against Sadiq and neither Keon Wylie or Anthony Speca has produced enough to force their way into big reps on Saturday. If Rojas or Campbell goes down, it could be a big problem for the Nittany Lions. But so far, so good.

The DTs have struggled, largely because Zane Durant hasn't made an impact yet. Alonzo Ford has played plenty coming back from injury, Owen Wafle has contributed, and Xavier Gilliam has shown the promise Penn State saw in camp. I'm most interested to see whether Texas A&M transfer Enai White gets run in an obvious pass rush situation this week. Regardless, Durant will determine whether this group thrives or struggles on Saturday.

Or maybe the DEs will dictate the game. After spending 2024 largely in Abdul Carter's shadow, massive DE Dani Dennis-Sutton has played at an All-American level thus far in 2025. He's playing the role of game-wrecker in the PSU defense. The spot across from him appeared problematic in August, but so far, so good for two unexpected reasons. First, super senior Zuriah Fisher has stayed healthy enough to contribute. He's not playing a lot, but if he manages even 30 snaps on Saturday, the group will get a huge boost. But now we get to Chaz Coleman. Coleman was a huge scouting win as an Ohio recruit who committed to PSU just before Ohio State offered him a scholarship. He stayed with his commitment and finds himself playing starter-level reps as a true freshman. Like Finney at Oregon, Coleman looks the part and has been incredibly impressive. In previewing the season, I lamented the loss of Max Granville to injury in the offseason, hoping that either Jaylen Harvey or Mylachi Williams would step up. Neither has, but Coleman has more than made up for that.

Could the Penn State defense stifle the Oregon offense? Sure! But "stifle" is a relative term. I think that holding Oregon to anything less than 27 points would be a huge win. Something will likely have to give in a matchup of the #2 offense and the #4 defense.

I mentioned Lanning above. I can't finish this piece without addressing James Franklin's performance against elite opposition. Personally, I don't think it's fair to tag Franklin with results from the 2014 and 2015 seasons. He was playing with somebody else's players and subject to somebody else's sanctions. So, starting in 2016 seems fair...but the results against top-10 opponents are still putrid. First, the wins:

• 2016: 24-21 v. #2 Ohio State
• 2016: 38-31 v. #6 Wisconsin
• 2022: 35-21 v. #8 Utah
• 2024: 38-10 v. #10 SMU
• 2024: 31-14 v. #8 Boise State

And now, the losses:

• 2016: 10-49 @ #4 Michigan
• 2016: 49-52 @ #9 USC
• 2017: 38-39 @ #6 Ohio State
• 2018: 26-27 v. #4 Ohio State
• 2018: 7-42 @ #5 Michigan
• 2019: 17-28 @ #2 Ohio State
• 2021: 20-23 @ #3 Iowa
• 2021: 24-33 @ #5 Ohio State
• 2021: 17-21 v. #6 Michigan
• 2022: 17-41 @ #5 Michigan
• 2022: 31-44 @ #2 Ohio State
• 2023: 12-20 @ #3 Ohio State
• 2023: 15-24 v. #2 Michigan
• 2024: 13-20 v. #4 Ohio State
• 2024: 37-45 v. #1 Oregon
• 2024: 24-27 v. #3 Notre Dame

Woof. 5-16 is not good. But five wins against top-10 teams might be kinda good? Maybe. But that's not the point. It's impossible to look at these results and miss the elephant in the room: four of the five wins are against teams with considerably less roster talent than the Nittany Lions. No disrespect to Wisconsin, Utah, SMU, or Boise State -- they all had wonderful seasons in the years in question! -- but they are not talent peers. Conversely, 15 of the 16 losses came to talent-level peers with only 2021 Iowa -- the game where Taquan Roberson infamously couldn't get off a snap -- sticking out. Franklin only gets blown out by Michigan at the Big House, but he also has one win against a top-10 talent peer in the last nine-plus seasons.

The 2025 Penn State roster is loaded with seniors that came back for a championship run. Add that to the above and it's clear: Nittany is desperate. They have to win this game. The fans know it. The players know it. And, almost certainly, the Ducks know it, too.

Oregon? Not so much. This game is gravy for the Ducks. They'll make the Playoff as long as they get two wins among their four most challenging contests -- Saturday night, October 11th v. Indiana, November 22nd v. USC, and November 29th @ Washington -- as they'll be massive favorites in their other four remaining contests. They're not expected to win this cross-country trip. They have nothing to lose.

I expect to see a very tight Penn State team welcome a loose, carefree Oregon squad. Yikes.

Penn State has a superb defense. Penn State has an elite rushing offense that has played well against every opponent for years. Penn State has an emerging star TE in Luke Reynolds and enough talent at WR to be relevant.

But they also have Drew Allar and his dreadful record in big spots. And Oregon brings their star-studded roster featuring a plus QB in Moore and a TE who is already a star in Sadiq.

I do not like this matchup. Prior to the season, I figured that Penn State would be favored by about 7 but lose 20-27. All of the movement since then has been toward the Ducks. I'm very surprised that Penn State remains favored by 3.5 in this game, but I do think that Vegas is factoring in roughly a 3-point adjustment for the Whiteout as it should've been a pick 'em. Even factoring in the Whiteout, this looks like a double-digit Nittany loss to me. I think that the defense will hold up well enough. But you have to feature a plus passing offense to be a serious team in 2025.

Oregon 31

Penn State 20

Thankfully, this is college football. Players are allowed to get better; it happens every year! Players are allowed to surprise us with their performances. That also happens every year. If Drew Allar surprises (in a good way, of course) on Saturday, Penn State should win this game.

We Are!

Meet the New Bears...Same as the Old Bears?

Well, that stunk.

The NFL scheduling formula didn't do the Bears any favors. How bad is it? Here are the road games that the Bears will enjoy in 2025, coming off of a last-place finish in 2024:

1. @ Detroit (yikes!)
2. @ Las Vegas (1,500-mile flight against what should be a much more competent team)
3. @ Washington (yikes!)
4. @ Baltimore (YIKES!)
5. @ Cincinnati (tough)
6. @ Minnesota (yikes!)
7. @ Philadelphia (YIKES!)
8. @ Green Bay (YIKES!)
9. @ San Francisco (who knows?)

The Bears will struggle to win any of those games. It's basically impossible to envision these Bears having a chance against Detroit, Washington, Baltimore, Minnesota, Philadelphia, or Green Bay, so their peak is probably 2-7 in road games. That means they need to go 7-1 or better at home to have a chance at a winning season.

This wasn't going to be the easiest game on the home slate, but it was probably the fourth or fifth easiest game on the schedule as a whole. The Bears win expectancy peaked at 94.2% late in the third quarter. And they needed a late score to trim a multi-score deficit down to a one-score hole.

Ugh.

To have a realistic chance at playing meaningful football in January, the Bears probably have to start 4-2 or 5-1. That was a tall task before this disaster; now it's practically impossible.

As I attempt to process this, I'm struck by the following downsides:

1. Pre-Snap Penalties and Sloppiness. This wasn't some minor issue. The Bears had four false starts in the first half alone. On an early run to the left side, multiple teammates were explaining the play to Colston Loveland at the snap, who ran a pass route on a running play where his man made a TFL. The Bears burned two first half timeouts to avoid delay of game penalties. So sloppy.
2. Jonah Jackson was Dreadful. Jackson reminded me of Lucas Patrick, looking overmatched on every snap. I understood that with Patrick given his relative size limitations. With Jackson, it appears that he is bad. It seemed that the vast majority of the pressure in Caleb Williams' face came in the A gap between new center Drew Dalman, who looked alright, and Jackson, who looked terrible.
3. GM Ryan Poles Pretended that Cairo Santos Has an NFL Leg; Ben Johnson Pretended, too. I don't get it. I just don't get it. Santos is accurate on short and medium kicks, which is great. But Santos doesn't have an NFL leg. You can't just pretend that he does. The missed 50-yard field goal wasn't a surprise to anyone that has watched Santos. But Johnson deciding to have Santos kick the final kickoff deep was the nail in the coffin. Santos cannot kick the ball through the endzone. Pretending that he could cost the Bears the two-minute warning and 40 precious seconds. I don't blame Santos; he has the leg that he has. But I do blame Poles for keeping an inadequate leg and Johnson for coaching like he has a kicker that he simply doesn't have. Johnson said "the intent was for the ball to go out of the endzone." That's pretending.
4. Fake Aggressiveness. This was my least favorite part of the Matt Nagy experience. "Be You." Spare me. Nagy was aggressive...except when he was extremely cautious. Similarly, Johnson elected to go for it on 4th and 3 at the MIN 24; the play was there but Williams missed an open D.J. Moore. Bummer. But later, at the end of the first half, the Bears were facing 1st and 10 at the MIN 32 with 1:55 left...and Johnson ran the ball twice, bleeding clock before a third and long instead of pushing to reach the endzone. Kevin O'Connell took a timeout, J.J. McCarthy completed one pass, and the Bears and Vikings merely traded 3s to end the half.
5. Brutal Zebras. Just brutal. A phantom holding call on Darnell Wright turned a red zone drive into Santos' missed 50-yard field goal, flipping the game. Dayo Odeyingbo was called for roughing the passer for hitting McCarthy in the head...when he didn't hit McCarthy in the head. Odeyingbo also got called for illegal use of hands to the face of Vikings RT Brian O'Neill...when he didn't put his hands on O'Neill's face. Tyrique Stevenson got called for pass interference...because Jalen Nailor fell down. Stevenson certainly could've been called for illegal contact for early grabbing, but that wasn't the call and the call was bad.
6. Terrible Running Game. D'Andre Swift had some nice carries. I liked what he brought, on the whole. Kyle Monongai made a nice catch. But the running lanes for Jordan Mason never materialized for Swift. When the offensive line doesn't create space, the running game will stink. Football is simple that way. Williams ended the game as the team's leading rusher.
7. Inexplicable GM Extensions. I don't blame Ryan Poles for taking an extension from the McCaskey family. I do blame the McCaskey family for giving Poles a multi-year extension when his teams have always stunk. This is just like the Cubs extending GM Jed Hoyer with a losing record and no playoff appearances.
8. Missing Draft Picks. 5th rounder CB Zah Frazier has something going on off the field, so he wasn't expected to contribute in this game. 2nd rounder Ozzy Trapilo plays OT, and while its eyebrow-raising that undrafted 2024 rookie Theo Benedet was the 6th OL, Trapilo can be forgiven. 2nd rounder WR Luther Burden got one touch on offense on a blown-up screen pass. 1st rounder TE Colston Loveland had two touches on checkdowns. 2nd rounder DT Shemar Turner was inactive. This team doesn't have so many studs that these players shouldn't be pushing for roles.

It wasn't all bad. There were a few bright spots that I'll be clinging to as the Bears prepare to get walloped in Detroit on a short week.

1. The Returners. Devin Duvernay brought some juice, though fair catching the final punt was inexplicable. Burden's return at the end of the first half showed off his athleticism.
2. Caleb Williams Making Plays with his Feet. Surely Ben Johnson wants Williams to stand in the pocket and deliver the ball. Unfortunately, he couldn't with the way the OL played tonight. So, kudos to Williams for extending plays to make things happen for a team in desperate need of help.
3. The OTs. RT Wright and LT Braxton Jones held up very well against a pair to top DEs. Nice!
4. The Non-Jonah Jackson Interior Offensive Line. Every time I watched Joe Thuney, he was mesmerizing. He was helping out, moving quickly, and I never once saw him get beat. Drew Dalman's snaps were clean and the only times I saw him get beat were when he was helping out Jackson, save for one missed stunt in the second quarter.
5. Dayo Odeyingbo and Gervon Dexter. Odeyingbo was a menace, making a few highlight plays against the run and a couple of nice pass rushes. Dexter put some pressure on the Minnesota iOL, though never fully collapsed it.
6. Safeties. Kevin Byard had a solid game. Jaquan Brisker was a force and it appeared that McCarthy wanted nothing to do with Brisker. And Jonathan Owens made a stellar play to shut down a Minnesota two-point conversion attempt.
7. Nahshon Wright. Wright had a few plays where it appeared that he didn't know what he was doing. That's bad. He got beat by Justin Jefferson a few times. That's understandable. But Wright undercut a terrible throw from McCarthy for a 74-yard pick-six, making the single best play of the night for the Bears. That's worth calling out.
8. Jaquan Brisker. He appeared to get through the game healthy and is awesome when he's on the field.
9. Remembering 2024. In last year's opener, the Bears played terribly for the first three quarters against Tennessee, then rallied for a stirring comeback en route to a 4-2 start...followed immediately by a 10-game losing streak. Football seasons are long. Devastating losses only count as one loss. Blowout losses only count as one loss. There are lots of games left.

The Bears have a seven-game stretch from late-October through early-December that consists of the following:

• @ Baltimore
• @ Cincinnati
• v. New York Giants
• @ Minnesota
• v. Pittsburgh
• @ Philadelphia
• @ Green Bay

It's brutal. The schedule is unforgiving which requires capitalizing on opportunities now. The Bears whiffed by playing sloppy football and blowing a game in which they had a 94.2% win expectancy with 16 minutes to go so badly that they needed a late score to avoid a multi-score home loss.

Or, put much more simply:

Meet the new Bears: same as the old Bears, until proven otherwise.

Chicago Bears 2025 Season Preview and NFL Predictions

Oftentimes I wait until closer to the fall to write this preview. Not this year. Thanks to a 10-game losing streak fueled by incompetence by former coach Matt Eberflus, the 2024 squad ceased to be relevant much earlier than hoped despite a 4-2 start. Conversely, the 2024 Penn State season lasted into the second week of January. So, while the Nittany Lions' season feels like it just ended, the Bears' 2024 season feels like a distant memory.

Thank goodness for that. The squad got off to a hot start thanks to a sparkling defensive performance against Tennessee and by following two one-score road losses with a solid home win against the Rams and dominating victories over Carolina and Jacksonville. Then, the infamous Tyrique Stevenson Hail Mary began the 10-game skid, helped along by a slew of boneheaded choices by Flus. After the Bears ran out the clock on themselves in Detroit on Thanksgiving, the Flus era was over.

Here's a look at the new page that begins with the 2025 Bears, followed by predictions for the NFL season.

Coaching
An outrageous amount of ink has been spilled on the coaching change and with good reason. The Bears canned a buffoon and went shopping at the top of the market, ultimately landing the biggest fish available over the last two hiring cycles in Lions OC Ben Johnson. This is Johnson's first head coaching gig, so there's a chance that he goes full pumpkin. Regardless, this is the most prudent move to make.

The early returns on Johnson are extremely encouraging. He appears to have an intensity level and seriousness of demeanor that fits well in Chicago. After an era of gentle handholding with Eberflus, Johnson is a breath of fresh air. I won't pretend to have any particular confidence in Declan Doyle, a 29-year-old with all of two years experience as a position coach, but Johnson is the offensive and leadership focus.

Bringing in Dennis Allen to run the defense is a huge win. A coordinator with head coaching experience was ideal for Johnson heading into his first time at the top. Allen gives us vibes akin to guys like Vic Fangio and Rod Marinelli before him: miscast as a head coach but elite running a defense. The Bears will need this presence from Allen.

Hopefully Richard Hightower's special teams remain strong, but unless Dave Toub is walking back through the door, it's hard to be too excited about this room.

Offense
There is a lot to like here. Caleb Williams had a terrible debut game, then improved significantly before the entire team was shellshocked by the Hail Mary loss. He made a boatload of plays in three straight divisional one-score losses, suggesting that he's got the right demeanor to persevere. Williams looks at home, in his element, on the football field. Having both Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent backing him up provides a competent QB option at all times.

Normally I work through the skill players first, saving the offensive line for last, but not this year. Last year, I expected Darnell Wright and Braxton Jones to form an average-or-better OT tandem while remaining highly skeptical of the construction of the interior offensive line. The iOL collapsed before the season even had a chance to get going with Nate Davis washing out and Ryan Bates getting injured in week one. Unwilling to repeat that type of risk, GM Ryan Poles poured an absurd amount of assets into the OL this offseason, adding top-five C Drew Dalman via free agency, elite LG Joe Thuney via trade, formerly solid RG Jonah Jackson via trade, and mountain of an OT prospect Ozzy Trapilo in the second round of the draft. Adding that quartet to Wright, Jones, 2024 third rounder Kiran Amegadjie, and Bates, the line looks incredibly deep. Amegadjie was always going to need more seasoning making the jump from Yale and coming off of an injury, but it's reasonable to expect him to look much better in year two. The Bears should have a quality player at every OL spot on the roster, even creating a nice competition for the ninth spot between Doug Kramer and sixth rounder Luke Newman, an elite iOL athlete from Holy Cross via Michigan State. After many years of the Penn State offensive line undermining the offense's production, Phil Trautwein finally fixed the problem and elevated the entire offense. The Bears should have a good offensive line. OL Coach Dan Roushar is now tasked with getting the group to perform, but after years of lip service being paid to the OL, the group now has the talent to succeed.

Thankfully, that OL talent wasn't accumulated at the expense of nabbing quality pass catchers. D.J. Moore returns as a genuine #1 WR; he's probably in the 10th-15th best neighborhood. Last year's #9 overall pick, Rome Odunze flashed as a rookie but will have an opportunity to shine in 2025. I'm not sure whether Keenan Allen was the #2 or #3 in 2024, but in any event, he's gone, seemingly creating a hole in the room. Not in my eyes. I love Luther Burden III. Burden looked exactly like Moore to me in preparing for the Draft. When preparing for the Draft, I made a Bears-specific big board; of the top-20 prospects, Marshall DE Mike Green went 59th (thanks to multiple sexual assault allegations), 18 went in the first round, and, incredibly, Burden fell to the Bears at #39. He lost a lot of time in the summer and early in training camp dealing with a hamstring injury. If healthy, Burden is going to force his way into a big role. There are probably two roster spots available to split between Olamide Zaccheaus, Devin Duvernay, and Tyler Scott. Zaccheaus got half of his deal guaranteed, so he's probably safe. Between Duvernay and Scott, I'd rather be Duvernay with his special teams experience.

The top pass catching tight end battle will be interesting to watch as solid citizen Cole Kmet remains but will be pushed by 10th overall pick Colston Loveland. Although Loveland is coming off of a shoulder injury, he's expected to be 100% for the season and to figure heavily into the passing offense. Durham Smythe will make the team but probably not play a ton. I'd be surprised if a fourth TE cracks the roster, which is very good news for the ninth OL.

The RB room is underwhelming. It's a true test of the notion that the OL makes the RB. D'Andre Swift is a bottom-10 starter, Roschon Johnson is a guy, Kyle Monangai is a rookie seventh rounder, and Travis Homer is a special teamer. Yikes.

Recent Bears rosters have placed QBs in unenviable spots with fringe roster players occupying starting roles. Names like Byron Pringle, Dante Pettis, Sam Mustipher, Michael Schofield, Lucas Patrick, and Tyler Scott (man, Justin Fields really didn't get a fair shot in Chicago). Those players wouldn't be on the squad in 2025, let alone starting. Caleb Williams has the opportunity to lead the Bears to an explosive season. With a full season of starting experience, a top-notch offensive head coach, and a loaded supporting cast, I think he's going to lead the Bears to a top-10 offense.

Defense
And that's a good thing, because the defense is much more of a mixed bag. It all starts up front, more specifically on the edge. Throughout the offseason, my thinking was that the Bears desperately needed to add two DEs to the rotation after surprisingly cutting the productive and affordable DeMarcus Walker. With Walker out of the picture, the Bears could confidently write Montez Sweat into the DE1 role and Austin Booker into the DE4 spot; the DE2 and DE3 spots were glaring openings. When Poles signed Dayo Odeyingbo in free agency, the need at DE became less acute but it didn't go away. Arguably, the need at DT vanished with overpaid free agent tone setter Grady Jarrett joining Gervon Dexter and Andrew Billings to form a solid three-man rotation. Zacch Pickens has been a massive disappointment despite my meager expectations for him and Chris Williams was bad in 2024, but the need to add a DT behind Jarrett-Dexter-Billings-Pickens paled in comparison to the need for another rotation DE, especially given Odeyingbo's penchant to kick inside on obvious passing downs.

So, when the Draft rolled around, at least one DE seemed to be a foregone conclusion...until the actual number was zero. Huh? Recent signee Tanoh Kpassagnon was an interesting prospect out of Villanova when the Chiefs took him late in the second round in 2017, but he's played an entire career without offering any pass rushing production and he appears to have fallen off a cliff at age 31; he also received no guaranteed money with his camp invite. The DE3 spot is a glaring hole on this roster and sticks out as the area most ripe for an outside addition, whether via a trade or the autumn addition of an older free agent like Jadeveon Clowney, Matt Judon, Za'Darius Smith, or Carl Lawson. Sweat, Odeyingbo, and Booker need one more complementary piece to feel like a complete group.

The DT spot feels overloaded: Pickens and Williams are probably competing for the DT5 roster spot with Jarrett, Dexter, Billings, and second rounder Shemar Turner ahead of them. I really like Dexter and I like Bilings. Jarrett looks like he could go full pumpkin in a hurry and was surely overpaid, but if he proves to be the lifeblood of the defense, that can be forgiven. I wasn't particularly high on Turner among the Draft's DEs -- I would've much preferred that the Bears drafted Arkansas DE Landon Jackson late in the second -- but he offers 3-tech starter upside. He was a worthy pick. It'll be fun to watch this group grow together and a quality player should occupy the field at DT for every meaningful snap this year.

The LB room is much shorter on depth than the DL, but it does have fun bodies at the top. Tremaine Edmunds consistently underwhelms despite his outrageous athleticism and extensive experience, but he's a decent player likely heading into his final year with the Bears. TJ Edwards lacks the athleticism but makes up for it with great production; his recent extension was well-earned. Behind those two, it's thin. Ruben Hyppolite wasn't good at Maryland but he was fast. Amen Ogbongbemiga is a core special teamer not suited for a regular role on defense. And Noah Sewell has done very little as a 2023 fifth rounder. It's possible that undrafted rookie Power Echols makes the squad given his hefty bonus or that converted DE Daniel Hardy sticks around, but surely the Bears don't want either playing a meaningful role at LB this year. There is a ton of pressure on Edmunds and Edwards to both produce and stay healthy all year; an extended absence from either could expose a lack of depth at LB.

Finally, we've made it to the secondary. Nice. This group is fun. It all starts on the outside where Jaylon Johnson has turned into a true CB1. Johnson isn't in the same ultra-elite tier as Sauce Gardner or Pat Surtain II, but he's just a tick behind those guys. Opposite Johnson, the Bears have two strong options at CB2 between Hail Mary doof Tyrique Stevenson -- who otherwise has been developing nicely -- and former 5th rounder Terell Smith. Just as importantly, the slot features star Kyler Gordon and Special Teams ace Josh Blackwell, who has grown into a solid reserve defensively. I'm very excited about 2025 5th rounder Zah Frazier, though he may be headed to Injured Reserve to make spot for former failed Cowboys 3rd rounder Nahshon Wright. Regardless of exactly how it shakes out, there is star power and depth here.

The safety room does not have the same depth, but the starting tandem of Jaquan Brisker and Kevin Byard is strong. Brisker has a history of concussions and a violent style of play, but he's also captain material when he's on the field. Byard is aging gracefully. It'd be nice to have better depth than Jonathan Owens and Elijah Hicks here. If either Brisker or Byard endures an extended absence, Dennis Allen will need to allocate time and resources to protecting the defense from his replacement.

I have confidence in Allen. I don't have confidence in the depth of his defensive room. There's a very real chance that Allen propels this unit to slightly above-average production, which would be wonderful. It's just as likely that an injury or two at DE, LB, or S creates problems that can't be fixed, and the defense stumbles to be a third quartile unit; not bad but below average.

Special Teams
Here's hoping that Tory Taylor is (i) awesome, and (ii) used infrequently. Here's hoping that Cairo Santos spent the entire offseason working on elevating his placekicks. And here's hoping that no casual fan knows the name of the Bears' long snapper by the end of the season, whether it's the currently-injured Scott Daly or somebody else.

Schedule
As always, before picking the season, here's the schedule:

1. Minnesota (Monday Night Football)
2. @ Detroit
3. Dallas
4. @ Las Vegas
5. BYE
6. @ Washington (Monday Night Football)
7. New Orleans
8. @ Baltimore
9. @ Cincinnati
10. New York Giants
11. @ Minnesota
12. Pittsburgh
13. @ Philadelphia (Black Friday)
14. @ Green Bay
15. Cleveland
16. Green Bay
17. @ San Francisco (Sunday Night Football)
18. Detroit

The schedule isn't brutal, but this is no cakewalk. I'd certainly rather trade schedules with the Miami Dolphins, for example. Anyway, here's a month-by-month examination.

September (2-2)

1. Minnesota (Monday Night Football)

2. @ Detroit

3. Dallas

4. @ Las Vegas

I'm low on Minnesota, especially in light of JJ McCarthy losing all of his game and practice reps as a rookie to a knee injury. The Bears used to have a massive coaching deficit against Kevin O'Connell and Brian Flores, but the sideline advantage is now gone. With that, it's down to talent and I think that the Bears can get this one. I don't love the road trip to Detroit, Dallas at home, or a cross-country road trip, but I think that the Bears find another win in there and get to the Bye at .500.

October (1-2)

5. BYE
6. @ Washington (Monday Night Football)
7. New Orleans
8. @ Baltimore

I sure wish that the Bears didn't follow their Bye with a road Monday Night Football game. Oh well. I feel great about the New Orleans game and terrible about the other two, especially with Laremy Tunsil now manning the blindside for Jayden Daniels. Then again, perhaps Caleb Williams will be particularly grumpy about what happened last year. Maybe Tyrique Stevenson wins the game on a walk-off pick-six...nah.

November (3-2)

9. @ Cincinnati
10. New York Giants
11. @ Minnesota
12. Pittsburgh
13. @ Philadelphia (Black Friday)

Road trips to Cincinnati, Minnesota, and Philadelphia will almost certainly yield no more than one win. The Bears should be solidly favored against the Giants in Chicago, but that likely won't be the case when Aaron Rodgers comes to town. Who cares? Give me the Bears to win both home games and enter December at 6-6 with a shot to play their way into the playoffs.

December (3-1)

14. @ Green Bay
15. Cleveland
16. Green Bay
17. @ San Francisco (Sunday Night Football)

I'm very low on San Francisco, even with the Bears traversing the nation to get to the game. I'm extremely low on Cleveland. I'm lukewarm on the Packers. The opportunity is there. The Bears can split with the Packers and head to January with a chance for a memorable season.

January (1-0)

18. Detroit

The Bears hosting the Lions with a likely playoff berth on the line? This could be a primetime or at least late afternoon contest. I think that the Lions will do well, but I love the Bears here: either this game won't matter to the Lions and they'll punt it or they'll need Jared Goff to play well in January outdoors in the north. Let's get to the playoffs, Chicago.

2025 should be exciting. Here's how I see things going for the rest of the league:

NFC East
Philadelphia (11-6) - super strong but Super Bowl seasons are very long, so some hangover here
Washington (10-7) - lots of new old guys but enough talent to win
Dallas (9-8) - defense could be quite bad; they desperately need Parsons
New York Giants (4-13) - Stars in Nabers/Carter/Burns/Thibodeaux/Lawrence/Thomas, but nothing else

NFC North
Detroit (12-5) - elite talent and Campbell is great
Green Bay (10-7) - they just never lose and there's plenty of line talent here on both sides
Chicago (10-7) - Ben Johnson brings competence to an already-talented roster that improved
Minnesota (7-10) - very good team held back by their (effectively) rookie QB

NFC South
Tampa Bay (12-5) - tough September, then easy. Oodles of line talent and elite WR room
Atlanta (7-10) - should be a fun offense but the makings of a dreadful defense, esp. up front
Carolina (7-10) - they're a bit better; a five-win team with an easy last-place schedule
New Orleans (3-14) - possibly the NFL's worst team with an OK OL and no QB

NFC West
Seattle (10-7) - don't love Darnold; love everything else, especially DL
Arizona (9-8) - they have some obvious weaknesses (OL, WR, CB) and obvious strengths (QB, DT, S)
Los Angeles Rams (8-9) - high floor with McVay but I'm concerned about Stafford and DL
San Francisco (6-11) - Purdy finally asked to do a ton; the OL looks bad to me

AFC East
Buffalo (13-4) - good everywhere with an elite QB
New England (9-8) - a lot to like here but still a few holes and two rookie OL starters
Miami (7-10) - a team with some catastrophic holes but a wildly soft schedule
New York Jets (6-11) - I love Fields, but the Jets have abysmal WRs/TEs; Fields is cursed

AFC North
Baltimore (14-3) - the NFL's best roster; Ozzie Newsome is a wizard
Pittsburgh (10-7) - Tomlin will win, whether Rodgers helps or not
Cincinnati (6-11) - Burrow/Chase/Higgins rule. OL is bad and defense is bottom-five
Cleveland (4-13) - four QBs --> no QB. Solid defense but bottom-of-the-barrel offense

AFC South
Houston (10-7) - a Super Bowl roster, except that their OL stinks now; need Ersery to star immediately
Jacksonville (8-9) - pretty good roster almost everywhere...but the NFL's worst OL scuttles things
Indianapolis (7-10) - a team with an obvious playoff roster but not at QB
Tennessee (5-12) - I really liked them last year and still like the roster enough...but it's a rookie QB

AFC West
Kansas City (13-4) - Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are both still alive
Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) - even without Rashawn Slater, Harbaugh will do what he wants here
Denver (8-9) - a great roster, but the schedule got tougher and I don't believe in Nix
Las Vegas (6-11) - Geno Smith is a huge upgrade, but this roster is underwhelming to me

NFL Playoffs
A few comments before the bracket:

1. I didn't expect to put the Patriots in the playoffs, but their roster looks quite strong and their schedule is comical. If they don't make the playoffs, it means that something went sideways with Drake Maye.
2. Both South divisions stink.
3. The NFC West is very difficult for me to read. I felt pretty good about the other divisions, but not that one.
4. For the first time ever, my initial picks needed no adjustments: I picked exactly 272 wins and 272 losses. Fun!

Winners in bold.

Wild Card

#7 Chicago @ #2 Detroit

#6 Green Bay @ #3 Philadelphia

#5 Washington @ #4 Seattle

#7 New England @ #2 Kansas City

#6 Pittsburgh @ #3 Buffalo

#5 Los Angeles Chargers @ #4 Houston

Very chalky.

Divisional

#4 Seattle @ #1 Tampa Bay

#3 Detroit @ #2 Philadelphia

#5 Los Angeles Chargers @ #1 Baltimore

#3 Buffalo @ #2 Kansas City

Yeah, I know. Picking Buffalo to knock off Kansas City in Kansas City is surely foolish, but the extended season will catch up to the Chiefs one of these years. As for the Chargers, Jim Harbaugh will get his team to play the same style of ball that his brother John plays in Baltimore; that game is a coin flip and would be fascinating.

Conference Championships

#2 Philadelphia @ #1 Tampa Bay

#5 Los Angeles Chargers @ #3 Buffalo

Super Bowl (Santa Clara, CA)

Buffalo over Philadelphia

Repeating is so dang hard. Buffalo will have had, comparably, a much easier path to reach Santa Clara than Philly, which weighed on me here. I can only imagine what the City of Buffalo will look like if the Bills manage to pull it off!

Penn State Nittany Lions Football 2025 Season Preview, Including Big Ten and CFP Picks

Here we are late in the spring with the Cubs leading the NL Central while playing an exciting brand of baseball...and I can't stop thinking about Penn State football. (Obviously I started this post a while ago!) The 2024 season was so fun with the Nittany Lions securing 13 wins and losing three extremely tight, competitive contests to top-five opponents. And the team didn't just win: they were elite according to the metrics, too, finishing the year ranked fifth in SP+ behind only Ohio State, Mississippi, Oregon, and Alabama and narrowly ahead of Georgia, Texas, and Notre Dame.

All of that is cool, but there are two diametrically opposed thoughts rattling through my brain for the last few months: (1) Drew Allar was devastatingly awful in the College Football Playoff last year, especially against the Irish, on the heels of a decent regular season and strong showing against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game (yuck), and (2) the 2025 Nittany hype train has reached runaway freight train disaster levels (cool!). The team is getting significant buzz as a potential #1 overall preseason pick, so I'm finding it impossible to stop obsessing about the squad.

Let's start with the second factor. This team is going to be good. In the vein of 2023 Michigan and 2024 Ohio State before them, the 2025 Penn State squad figures to be loaded with veteran talent that eschewed an NFL jump in favor of returning to take another shot at a collegiate championship. I'll get into specifics in a bit, but it all starts at the top.

James Franklin is a great CEO. After many years of making puzzling, game-losing decisions in key spots, Franklin enjoyed a clean 2024 season. With shiny new DC Jim Knowles coming over from Ohio State to join star young OC Andy Kotelnicki and a barrage of experienced, successful position coaches, Franklin has an elite staff. Of course, that staff only goes so far as the players on the field that they get to coach.

Over at CBS, Bud Elliott developed a concept known as the Blue-Chip Ratio ("BCR"). It's an unsophisticated shorthand way to evaluate the most talented rosters. BCR tracks the percentage of four- and five-star recruits for each team over their prior four recruiting classes. Elliott started tracking this in 2013, so it conveniently covers the entirety of James Franklin's tenure at Penn State.

On its own, BCR isn't a requirement for having a successful season...not officially, anyway. But it sure does help! And it is unofficially a requirement for winning a national championship. From 2011-24, the national champion has had a BCR of at least 52%. More to the point, the only schools below 64% were 2013 Florida State, 2016 Clemson, and 2023 Michigan, all of whom were lead by QBs drafted in the top half of the first round. Each preseason, Elliott has taken to listing the 15 or so squads with a sufficient BCR to have a chance to win a national championship, using 50% as the cutoff.

We're going to look at two different components involving BCR. The first will be quite favorable to Coach Franklin: Penn State's own BCR over the course of his time recruiting in State College.

Wow! Astute Penn State fans will surely recall that the cupboard was awfully bare when JFF arrived in town. Nevertheless, it's striking to have a visual instruction of just how little talent Franklin inherited. He truly did an incredible job growing the talent base for this roster.

The 2025 BCR will likely hold steady in light of a strong and deep class being factored into the rankings. While the Transfer Portal looms large over the college football world these days, the overwhelming majority of elite rosters are built via elite recruiting. Penn State's BCR keeps the Nittany Lions in the conversation every year. Yes!

Sidebar: in looking into BCR, I evaluated some of the other classes in the country and...wtf, Oregon? The Ducks took one three-star recruit in 2025; everyone else was a Blue Chip addition. My God.

Nittany's strong BCR plays out on its strong roster. Despite his background as a wide receivers coach, Franklin's offensive roster is driven by an elite offensive line, a superstar running back tandem, and an absurdly deep tight end room. Phil Trautwein's OL enjoyed a wonderful 2024 season, yet the 2025 group figures to be better and perhaps considerably so. There are three top-notch, experienced OTs, an oddity in the modern game. For the first half of last season, RT Anthony Donkoh was the best OL on the roster. LT Drew Shelton enjoyed a strong season as a steady LT, albeit without the ceiling of his predecessor Olu Fashanu. Then, following Donkoh's injury, former five-star Wisconsin transfer and Nittany legacy Nolan Rucci stepped in and showed a new gear, culminating in a stellar Playoff run. All three are back. On the inside, RG Saleem Wormley is off to the NFL, but super-senior C Nick Dawkins is back at the pivot between two studs at G. LG Vega Ioane was a stud in 2024 and RG Cooper Cousins was so impressive pushing for a starting job that senior JB Nelson transferred. Interior depth took a hit when Nelson left, but between former fringe five-star recruit J'Ven Williams taking a big step and former Texas A&M RG TJ Shanahan transferring in having played in all ten games last year for which he was healthy, the two-deep is the healthiest it has been during my time as a Penn State fan.

Speaking of a strong two-deep: Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen form the top RB tandem in the nation. Losing longtime RB Coach and ace Florida recruiter Ja'Juan Seider to Notre Dame hurt, but former Temple head coach Stan Drayton is a nice fallback option and the RB train appears set to continue rolling. There will be lots of jockeying between Quinton Martin, Corey Smith, and Cam Wallace for RB3 reps with no redshirt shenanigans to worry about, though hopefully whoever that is lands in a distant third spot.

Despite the health of the foregoing rooms, Ty Howle's tight end group remains the gold standard on the roster. Senior Khalil Dinkins gets his chance to shine after serving mostly as a red zone/fourth down passing option who focused on his run blocking assignments, but the intrigue is really behind him among a group of guys that all figure to play a ton. Entering last season, Andrew Rappleyea was clearly behind Dinkins (and obviously Tyler Warren) in the pecking order, but a September injury ended his season and opened the door for true freshman top-100 recruit Luke Reynolds, who ran through and made himself a key part of the rotation with 266 offensive snaps. Dinkins, Rappleyea, and Reynolds would be plenty, but that's hardly where things end. Former four-star recruit Joey Schlaffer is at a career inflection point, but he'll have to hold off true freshman top-100 recruit Andrew Olesh to get snaps. Olesh needs to add weight in order to get in-line reps, but he figures to be a weapon from the jump. This room lost a 2024 All-American and it doesn't matter: it is loaded.

Now, we can't finish this part of the discussion about the offense without addressing the wide receivers. Coming off of a zero-catch performance for minus-three yards in the Orange Bowl, there's nowhere to go but up. Losing Trey Wallace to Ole Miss in the Portal was a blow, but the rest of the WR room getting a complete revamp is a win. Nittany brought in three new senior transfers, all of whom figure to start: steady USC possession receiver Kyron Hudson, All-ACC Syracuse Alum Trebor Pena, and slight Troy speedster Devonte Ross. Hudson and Pena figure to be solid citizens, with Pena's numbers inflated by Kyle McCord's monster year with the Orange, but Ross is the one that has me excited. He has the look of a guy that gets open a lot in college. Liam Clifford is back as a #5 for his final season, but the excitement for the group centers on the transfers and redshirt freshman Tyseer Denmark. Nevertheless, there will be opportunities for former top recruits like Kaden Saunders and Anthony Ivey to carve out a role, or for youngsters like Peter Gonzalez and even true freshman Koby Howard to make a move. There's no Jeremiah Smith or Ryan Williams in this room, but even having a Jordan Norwood or two last season likely would've pushed Nittany into the National Championship game. WR Coach Marques Hagans is getting a lot of love from the Nittany media; it's time for him to earn his keep.

Defensively, the story is similarly rosy at most spots. Despite losing the best defensive end from the 2024 season with Abdul Carter going #3 in the NFL Draft, the defensive end group is in great shape. Coming off of an outrageous performance in the Orange Bowl himself, Dani Dennis-Sutton elected to return for his final season. He'll be among the best DEs in the nation. The starting job opposite DDS is less clear, but there are three quality options. Zuriah Fisher has spent of his career injured, but he's on track to get a shot to play a big role. A trio of redshirt freshmen will got a shot, too: Jaylen Harvey, Mylachi Williams, and especially Max Granville. Granville is the hope for someone that could pop this year after reclassifying last year and earning meaningful snaps. Max Granville's injury really took a bite out of the DE room, although there's hope that new freshman Yvan Kemajou can step into Granville's role from 2024.

The linebacker room looks good enough. Tony Rojas is a borderline star. Dom DeLuca is fine, though his physical limitations remain. The group looked thin a few months ago, but the arrival of North Carolina transfer Amare Campbell resolved that issue. There's excitement for the return of Keon Wylie and the emergence of Anthony Speca, but now there's no pressure for those guys to have to play big roles.

The secondary is, once again, in tremendous shape. The safety room is headed by senior Zakee Wheatley, himself also coming off of a stellar Orange Bowl performance. While Jaylen Reed will be missed, Dejuan Lane, Vaboue Toure, and perhaps Alabama transfer and former Nittany Lion King Mack could factor in next to him. None of this is the most important thing in the secondary; that's the absurd star power in the cornerback room. The top four is awesome, led by A.J. Harris and Elliot Washington, both of whom played huge roles in 2024. By all accounts, Audavion Collins has improved dramatically and is well equipped to handle the CB3 role. In the slot, Zion Tracy was really good in 2024 and looks like he has a chance to make a star turn, with Mack likely backing him up. There's a lot to like here. Nittany tends to play a lot of depth DBs in key roles -- just ask Notre Dame's Jaden Greathouse how much time he got against Cam Miller instead of one of Nittany's best DBs last year -- so it's important to have significant depth here.

The special teams look solid, too, in part thanks to Riley Thompson getting extra eligibility at punter.

This all sounds great. So, what's the problem? Unfortunately, we turn to the second data set involving BCR: Nittany's record against teams with a BCR of 50%+ during Franklin's time at the helm. Yikes!

5-20. Ugh. And it's not just that: Nittany is also 1-9 in their last 10 games against BCR squads. They aren't getting any better at beating top teams.

Much was made of the path that Penn State enjoyed to the Orange Bowl in 2024, needing only to handle SMU at home and Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. Needless to say, neither SMU nor Boise State features a BCR comparable to the top teams in the land. Whether the CFP format remains as is or moves to the proposed 5+11 format, any champion will need to work through multiple BCR squads in order to hoist a trophy.

Penn State has become an extremely high-floor team at this point, and there's a lot to be said for reaching this level. It wasn't always the case under Franklin, and it definitely wasn't the case for the last decade of Joe Paterno's run. For example, Michigan State's Mark Dantonio spent years coaching circles around Franklin, yielding especially devastating losses to the 2017 and 2018 squads. The 2017 team, in particular, surely would've made the four-team playoff if its only blemish was a one-point loss in Columbus. In recent years, Franklin's squads have been winning those types of games, handling the likes of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Iowa, Purdue, and Illinois with relative ease, notwithstanding a few nailbiters. In fact, Penn State gets blown out in Ann Arbor and nowhere else. 

I haven't counted the COVID year for any purpose for years, so if we set that season aside, Penn State's three most recent losses of 15+ points are:

• 2022 @ Michigan
• 2018 @ Michigan
• 2016 @ Michigan

The Wolverines are not on the regular season schedule in 2025. Great!

So, why isn't Penn State heading for glory in 2025? There are three reasons, all of which are sufficient to limit the squad:

1. We didn't touch on the defensive tackle room above. That wasn't a mistake. Last year, the DT room featured an old, experienced five-man rotation, headed by seniors D'von J-Thomas, Coziah Izzard, and Hakeem Beamon. Transfer Alonzo Ford proved to be a nice depth piece. And the star, junior Zane Durant, emerged as the quick interior force Penn State dreamed he would be. When Ford got hurt and Beamon surprisingly retired in November, the 2024 squad tightened to a three-man rotation, far from ideal at the punishing DT spot. Penn State has struggled mightily against traditional, power-based Big Ten rushing attacks given its preference for smaller, quicker DTs. J-Thomas and Izzard were equipped to combat that in 2024. Heading into 2025, things look dicey again. Durant is awesome, but he remains undersized and is only one man. Ford will be expected to carry a heavy load despite having suffered a November knee injury. *Gulp* There's a huge amount of pressure on redshirt freshman Xaiver Gilliam, who is expected to step into a full-time gig. Top recruit redshirt freshman Liam Andrews could play his way into a key job while DeAndre Cook and Michigan transfer Owen Walfe (older brother of key target Luke Wafle) might get onto the field. There's basically no noise about Kaleb Artis or Ty Blanding playing meaningful snaps; that's two lost classes in a row. It would've been ideal for Artis to step into the 1-technique role given his experience, but that ship appears to have sailed. Add it all up and things look underwhelming at DT. That's very bad.
2. Penn State basically never beats teams with a better BCR. They've only done so once since Saquon Barkley left in the memorable Whiteout win over Michigan in 2019. In order to win a national championship, they'd absolutely need to do so at least twice, most likely three times, and quite possibly four times. Winning at that level requires a massive program shift that otherwise hasn't had any indication of occurring.
3. Drew Allar. Saving the biggest item for last. Allar is...good? Yeah, sometimes! Allar is...bad? Yeah, sometimes :( Allar had some wonderful performances in 2024, carrying a heavy load in the road win at USC and playing arguably his best game against Oregon in Indianapolis in spite of a pair of picks. Unfortunately, the Playoff then happened. Yikes. Penn State roasted SMU at Beaver Stadium, but a pair of pick-sixes by Rojas and DeLuca paired with Singleton and Allen combining for three scores and 160 yards on just 25 carries masked an underwhelming day for Allar; he produced a 13/22 day for 127 yards. Allar made two "WOW" throws in the Fiesta Bowl against Boise State on a bomb to Omari Evans and a third quarter strike to Tyler Warren in the back of the endzone, but on the whole, the Penn State performance was once again paced by a defense that nabbed a trio of interceptions and a rushing attack where Singleton and Allen amassed 221 yards across 29 carries. Then the Orange Bowl happened. The defense did its job with two more INTs and a stifling performance against Notre Dame's rushing attack. The Nittany RBs did their job, contributing 166 yards over 34 carries with a trio of scores. But Allar laid an absolute egg. His final stat line -- 12/23 for 135 yards and a season-ending interception -- really undersells just how badly he struggled. He was the difference in the game, especially on a pair of brutal misses to Singleton: he badly overthrew Singleton streaking down the sideline on an open wheel route and underthrew him horribly on an arrow route on the first play of the second quarter, turning a gimme touchdown into a field goal. The Penn State offense took a huge hit when Beau Pribula (rightly) elected to transfer to Missouri in December in search of a starting job and life-changing payday. Pribula was huge for Penn State in 2024, playing 173 QB snaps and at least three QB snaps in all 13 games for which he was on the roster. Pribula would've been a much better fit for what Nittany wanted to do in Miami. Decent Allar would've been a much better fit, too. Unfortunately, bad Allar showed up and threw three terrible interceptions: the first two were wiped out by pass interference penalties, but the throws were awful, especially the badly-underthrown ball into triple coverage where Warren was actually open running toward the back pylon. The Orange Bowl continued Allar's trend of laying eggs against top competition following a 12/20 for 146 yards and an interception showing against Ohio State at home and miserable performances against both Ohio State and Michigan in 2023. College football players routinely get a lot better over the course of their careers. Penn State needs Allar to get a ton better in 2025 to have a realistic chance to win some of the close games that have ended their hopes in recent seasons.

With all of the above said, here's my pick for the Penn State season, followed by CFP picks.

• WIN v. Nevada: 52-7
• WIN v. FIU: 59-10
• WIN v. Villanova: 73-0
• LOSS v. Oregon: 20-27
• This would be a reasonably significant upset for the Ducks. They have to travel three time zones and Nittany averages outperforming the spread by just over three points during the Whiteout; with PSU currently a 4.5-point favorite, that would make them a 7.5-point adjusted favorite. An outright loss would be tough to stomach for Penn State. Conversely, getting a win over Dan Lanning's Ducks -- even as they break in new QB Dante Moore -- would be absolutely massive for James Franklin.
• WIN @ UCLA: 31-24
• WIN v. Northwestern: 45-13
• WIN @ Iowa: 24-17
• LOSS @ Ohio State: 24-30
• WIN v. Indiana: 31-17
• WIN @ Michigan State: 30-27
• WIN v. Nebraska: 28-7
• WIN @ Rutgers: 40-14

Big Ten Standings

1. Ohio State (13-0, 10-0)
2. Oregon (11-2, 8-2)
3. Michigan (10-2, 7-2)
4. Penn State (10-2, 7-2)
5. Iowa (9-3, 6-3)
6. USC (8-4, 6-3)
7. Illinois (8-4, 5-4)
8. Nebraska (7-5, 4-5)
9. Wisconsin (7-5, 5-4)
10. Washington (7-5, 4-5)
11. Minnesota (6-6, 4-5)
12. UCLA (6-6, 4-5)
13. Indiana (6-6, 3-6)
14. Michigan State (5-7, 3-6)
15. Maryland (5-7, 2-7)
16. Rutgers (5-7, 2-7)
17. Northwestern (4-8, 2-7)
18. Purdue (2-10, 0-9)

CFP Bracket

Seeds

#1 Ohio State (13-0) (Big Ten champion)

#2 Clemson (13-0) (ACC champion)

#3 Alabama (12-1) (SEC champion)

#4 Notre Dame (12-0)

#5 Georgia (11-2)

#6 Oregon (11-2)

#7 Texas (10-2)

#8 Michigan (10-2)

#9 Miami (10-3)

#10 Penn State (10-2)

#11 Utah (11-2) (Big 12 champion)

#12 Memphis (13-0) (American champion)

First Round

#12 Memphis @ #5 Georgia

#11 Utah @ #6 Oregon

#10 Penn State @ #7 Texas

#9 Miami @ #8 Michigan

Quarterfinals

Rose Bowl: #1 Ohio State v. #8 Michigan

Orange Bowl: #2 Clemson v. #7 Texas

Sugar Bowl: #3 Alabama v. #6 Oregon

Cotton Bowl: #4 Notre Dame v. #5 Georgia

Semifinals

Peach Bowl: #1 Ohio State v. #5 Georgia

Fiesta Bowl: #3 Alabama v. #7 Texas

Championship

@ Miami: #3 Alabama v. #5 Georgia

Chicago Bears NFL Draft Day Three Grades and Full Draft Grade

After adding TE Colston Loveland, WR Luther Burden III, OT Ozzy Trapilo, and DT Shemar Turner over the first two days of the NFL Draft, GM Ryan Poles and his staff put the finishing touches on their Draft class on Saturday with a flurry of moves. There's a lot of ground to cover, so off we go.

Bears trade #109 to Buffalo for #132 and #169

I was excited for a whole boatload of players in the top quarter of the fourth round. Then Poles made this deal to move down 23 spots and pick up a 5th, and, as it turns out, a gaggle of those players made it to #132 anyone. Cool! Here's the evaluation of this deal on the various charts:

• Jimmy Johnson Chart
• Bears Send: 76
• Bears Get: 63.8 (40 + 23.8)
• NET: BILLS +12.2 (equivalent to pick #197 (mid-6th))
• Chase Stuart Chart
• Bears Send: 4.7
• Bears Get: 5.4 (3.5 + 1.9)
• NET: BEARS +0.7 (equivalent to pick #205 (late-6th))
• Spielberger-Fitzgerald Chart
• Bears Send: 623
• Bears Get: 926 (526 + 400)
• NET: BEARS +303 (equivalent to pick #205 (late-6th))

This pick went on quite the journey. It originally belonged to the Bears, who sent it to Buffalo for pick #144 in the 2024 Draft to select Kansas DE Austin Booker. Buffalo sent it back to the Bears on Friday night, then the Bears sent it to Buffalo again in this deal.

Buffalo took Kentucky DT Deone Walker. I loved South Carolina DT T.J. Sanders, Arkansas DE Landon Jackson, and Walker in this class, and those are the three players that landed with Buffalo on picks that the Bears controlled originally (#41 and #72) and via an earlier trade (#109). I'll look back on this with great interest in four years.

For this deal itself, it looks an awful lot like the deal from Friday night. It's clear that the Bills and Bears are using different pick value charts. As a general rule, when the value is close, give me the extra pick.

Grade: C+

#132: Bears Draft Maryland LB Ruben Hyppolite II

What in the world? I remember Hyppolite as a prospect out of Florida when he was a hot recruit who ended up at Maryland. Hyppolite then spent the next four years playing...forgettable football. Finally, in 2024, he played...fine. Hyppolite wasn't invited to the Combine. Then, he ran a blazing 4.45 second 40-yar dash at Maryland's Pro Day and showed above-average explosion and agility. This should have been necessary to get him a compelling UDFA offer in light of his 5'11.5", 236 lbs. frame and paltry 18 reps on the bench. Instead, the Bears took him at #132.

I immediately assumed that Hyppolite was targeted to be a core special teamer. That's great. Hyppolite playing on defense would be bad news for the Bears because (i) he's not big enough to play LB in the NFL, and -- this is very important -- (ii) he was never good as a college LB at Maryland.

This pick is baffling. Hyppolite can turn into a useful member of the Bears roster, and if he does, that'll be great. But it won't change the reality that he appears to have been overdrafted by 100 spots. The opportunity cost of this pick was acute. Here are a few of the players drafted between #132 and #169, when the Bears picked next:

• #133: Utah State WR Jalen Royals
• Did the Bears need another WR? No. But they didn't need Hyppolite either and Royals is way better.
• #136: Stanford WR Elic Ayomanor
• Ditto Royals.
• #139: Georgia DE Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins
• My top player for the Bears on Day Three. If he becomes a real player in Minnesota, this one will really hurt in light of the Bears lacking depth at DE.
• #144: Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders
• No way they were taking him...but just imagine.
• #146: LSU DE Bradyn Swinson
• Right behind Ingram-Dawkins for me.
• #149: Texas RB Jaydon Blue
• An undersized, explosive RB. The Bears still need this.
• #151: Kansas State RB DJ Giddens
• An exceptional athlete (9.78 RAS) with exceptional speed (4.43 40) and explosion.
• #154: Purdue G Marcus Mbow
• I didn't think that the Bears would consider another iOL...but then they did in the 6th.
• #156: Oregon LB Jeffrey Bassa
• The most direct comparable. Bassa is a better athlete than Hyppolite, albeit a slower one (4.63 40, which is still great).

This one hurts. It's the new worst pick of the Poles tenure.

Grade: F

Bears Trade #148 to Rams for #195 and a 2026 4th

Yes! Finally! The new best move of the Poles tenure! I've long despised this style of trade, where a pick in one round is traded for a pick a round earlier in the following year's Draft. The Bears made this exact type of move last year in the aforementioned Booker deal. The net result? The Bears acquired pick #144 in 2024 for pick #109 in 2025. Ouch.

But here we are, running it back the other way...but even better! Poles got #195 this year in addition to next year's 4th. Truly incredible. The worst-case result of this trade is that Poles traded #148 for #134 and #195, and that's only if the Rams win the Super Bowl. The worse things go for the Rams, the better things go for the Bears.

Grade: A+

#169: Bears Draft UTSA CB Zah Frazier

Hell yeah! This is a wonderful pick. I really liked Frazier, regularly taking him late in the Draft in my mocks. As we got closer to the Draft, it became clear that Frazier's athletic profile and immense production at UTSA wouldn't permit taking him in the seventh round. So, getting him late in the fifth after trading down is one helluva strong outcome.

Frazier is a tremendous athlete in an idyllic frame. He's just under 6'3", ran a 4.36 40, and tested above-average on everything. He's just light at 186 lbs. In the fifth? Yes!

Grade: A-

#195: Bears Draft Michigan State C Luke Newman

Hyppolite was a massive reach at #132. Newman also appears to be quite a reach at #195 given that he didn't appear with a profile for any of the major Draft services. There's a comment to be made about overdrafting here, too.

However, I don't see Newman the same way for a few key reasons. First, Newman was good in college! After a strong turn as LT at Holy Cross, he moved on to MSU and produced a nice season at LG against significantly stronger competition. Second, the opportunity cost at #195 is dramatically lower than at #132. Consider the relative value of those picks by the three charts referenced above:

• Jimmy Johnson Chart
• #132: 40
• #195: 13
• Relative value of #132: 3.1x
• Chase Stuart Chart
• #132: 3.5
• #195: 1
• Relative value of #132: 3.5x
• Spielberger-Fitzgerald Chart
• #132: 526
• #195: 328
• Relative value of #132: 1.6x

Third, Newman figures to kick further inside to C in the NFL, and, as a C, he has nearly average NFL size at 6'3.5", 308 lbs. and otherwise elite athleticism, posting a marvelous 9.69 RAS. His 31" arms are wholly inadequate at LT, but at C? There could be something here. This is a sensible risk, making this a perfectly average pick and one that is likely bad news for Doug Kramer.

Grade: C

#233: Bears Draft Rutgers RB Kyle Monangai

Well, hey, it's a running back, right? 

Miami's Damien Martinez and SMU's Brashard Smith very nearly made it here, both coming off the board in the 10 picks before the Bears took Monangai. It's unlikely that any of these backs become stars, but both Martinez (9.35 RAS, 4.51 40) and Smith (7.21 RAS, 4.39 40) are considerably more interesting athletes than Monangai (4.39 RAS, 4.62 40). And anyone making an Isaih Pacheco comparison needs to pump the breaks: Pacheco tested exceptionally well (8.86 RAS, 4.37 40).

Monongai will be easy to root for and I suspect he'll do a great job of helping folks understand what "contact balance" really means. He's got a sufficiently powerful, compact frame, but my expectations for him are low: compared to Roschon Johnson coming out of Texas, Monongai is four inches shorter, 14 lbs. lighter, featured a vertical that was 3" higher, a broad jump that was a tick shorter, a 40 time that was 0.04 slower, and a 10-yard split that was even slower (0.07 seconds). Contact balance has some serious work to do.

Grade: C

That's it for the picks. Final thoughts before recapping the individual grades and issuing a final grade:

• This is the kind of wheeling and dealing that I often dream about: the Bears made their own pick only once in this Draft, at #10 overall. Every other pick originally belonged to another team.
• This was a really good Draft for QB Caleb Williams that followed a tremendous free agency period for the young QB. With WRs D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, and Olamide Zaccheus complementing TEs Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland, Williams figures to have at least three high-quality targets on the field for every snap.
• Offensive line depth is now the best that it has been in recent memory. There are four quality starting-caliber options at OT (Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Kiran Amegadjie, and Ozzy Trapilo) and four quality starting options in the interior (Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, Jonah Jackson, and Ryan Bates). The ninth roster spot for OL -- if there is one -- figures to be an interesting battle between Newman, Kramer, and G Bill Murray. Most importantly, the floor was been raised dramatically.
• The DT room looks dramatically better when newcomers Turner and Grady Jarrett joining Gervon Dexter and Andrew Billings. The fifth DT battle between Chris Williams and Zacch Pickens will be interesting. Here's hoping that Pickens grows into the job.
• The CB room is in perfect shape with Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson leading the way outside, Kyler Gordon starring in the slot, and Terell Smith, Josh Blackwell, and Frazier backing them up. Frazier, in particular, shouldn't be thrust into uncomfortable spots as a rookie thanks to the talent in front of him.
• Depth, on the other hand, is a real concern at S, LB, and especially DE. For a team with playoff aspirations, the Bears figure to count on both Austin Booker and Daniel Hardy to play meaningful reps at DE. Yikes! Despite Jaquan Brisker having suffered at least three concussions, the S reserves as Jonathan Owens and Elijah Hicks. Yikes! And while T.J. Edwards figures to serve as Tremaine Edmunds' top backup in the middle, the top true reserve is...Hyppolite? Special teamer Amen Ogbongbemiga? This is a serious concern. The Bears guaranteed $130,000 of 2025 money to UDFA and North Carolian alum Power Echols, so it's possible that they see the explosive, reasonably fast but undersized LB as a roster fit.
• Dennis Allen doesn't have the same depth available to him as Declan Doyle, but there's enough talent for an above-average NFL defense.
• Jonathan Kim made a 58-yd field goal at Kinnick Stadium last year along with a 54-yard hit at the Horseshoe. The career-long for for Cairo Santos? 55. Just saying.

It was quite the eventful Draft weekend for the Bears. Things around the organization feel different, though, to be fair, they felt great last April too coming off of a positive finish to the 2023 season and the acquisition of Williams. Still, this is an exciting time.

Before the final grade, here's a recap of the grades above and before:

• #10: Michigan TE Colston Loveland: D+
• #39: Missouri WR Luther Burden III: A
• Trade #41, #72, and #240 to Buffalo for #56, #62, and #109: C+
• #56: Boston College OT Ozzy Trapilo: C-
• #62: Texas A&M DT Shemar Turner: C-
• Trade #109 to Buffalo for #132 and #169: C+
• #132: Maryland LB Ruben Hyppolite: F
• Trade #148 to Rams for #195 and a 2026 4th: A+
• #169: UTSA CB Zah Frazier: A-
• #195: Michigan State C Luke Newman: C
• #233: Rutgers RB Kyle Monongai: C

There are a lot of average grades in here and then there are a couple of outliers: excellent moves for Burden, Frazier, and the Rams' 2026 4th, and a dreadful move for Hyppolite with a reach for Loveland. The Loveland reach is damaging.

And a recap of the free agency grades:

• Trade #198 to Rams for G Jonah Jackson: F-
• Trade 2026 4th to Kansas City for G Joe Thuney: B
• DT Chris Williams (original-round tender): D-
• C Drew Dalman: A-
• DE Dayo Odeyingbo: C-

In the end, the 2024 and 2025 results are flip-flopped. In 2024, I loved the work the Poles did in the Draft (A-) following a rough free agency period (D+). This year, on the other hand, the most meaningful moves -- for Thuney and Dalman -- were massive wins, leading to strong work in the aggregate for free agency. The Draft, on the other hand, feels much more average. So here we are:

Free Agency Grade: B

Draft Grade: C-

Offseason Grade: C+

A tick above average in the aggregate. That'll play.

Chicago Bears NFL Draft Day Three: Grading Day Two and Looking to Day Three

The last post was easy: it involved grading the TE Colston Loveland selection and looking to a whole bunch of players I had evaluated for months. Looking to Day Three is a little different with a massive pool of available players and tons of variance, plus more Day Two moves to evaluate. So, let's get right to it.

#39: Bears Draft Missouri WR Luther Burden III

Hell. Yes. This will be my favorite pick of this Draft. No questions asked.

Burden is a star. Due primarily to injury, his QB, Brady Cook, regressed in 2025 and Burden's production took a huge hit. His target share dropped from 120 to 81, so it was rather impressive that he still produced 61 grabs and six scores. Following that big drop, Burden slipped a bit in the eyes of draftniks despite his 5-star pedigree and incredible sophomore year production. Murmurs about practice concerns and possible interference from his mom may have impacted his Draft position, too, and the phone call from GM Ryan Poles and Head Coach Ben Johnson hinted to that.

My take? Burden slipping this far was very dumb. Burden is a star. And many Draft evaluators agree, with CBS, NFL.com, and PFN all giving him top-10 overall grades; PFF, Draft Buzz, and Todd McShay all graded him as a first-round pick, and only ESPN had him ranked lower than 39th, where he ended up being selected.

So why do I like him so much? Because he's awesome. Burden looks exactly like D.J. Moore to me. I finally compared their testing scores after Burden became a Bear and I chuckled:

• Height: They're both 6'0".
• Weight: Moore weighed in at 210 whereas Burden weighed in at 206.
• 40 Time: Moore ran 4.42, then Burden ran a 4.42.
• Agility and explosion testing: Burden didn't complete this testing.

But I can guess how that testing would've gone: Burden's explosion and twitchiness jump off the screen. He primarily lived in the slot. Assuming he continues to live there, he's going to get open a ton and punish defenses with the ball in his hands after the catch, just like Moore does at his best. Burden absolutely has got that dawg in him. And he could even end up returning punts.

Plus, he's remarkable value at #39. This is a testament to sticking with your board and taking the best player available, even though WR wasn't the biggest need at this point. Burden is a perfect fit for this roster, a plug-and-play firecracker at a starting spot with immense playmaking ability. Let's. Go.

Grade: A

Bears Trade #41, #72, and #240 to Buffalo for #56, #62, and #109

There are some serious moving pieces here. At first blush, it seemed a little light, but not outrageously so. Obviously #240 is basically worthless whereas #109 is an important addition to the roster, so trading two roster players for three is a good idea. Let's look at the trade using three different pick value charts:

• Jimmy Johnson Chart
• Bears Send: 721 (490 + 230 + 1)
• Bears Get: 700 (340 + 284 + 76)
• NET: BILLS +21 (equivalent to pick #176 (equivalent to last pick in the 5th))
• Chase Stuart Chart
• Bears Send: 18.5 (11 + 7.4 + 0.1)
• Bears Get: 22 (9 + 8.3 + 4.7)
• NET: BEARS +3.5 (equivalent to pick #132 (late-4th))
• Spielberger-Fitzgerald Chart
• Bears Send: 2,184 (1,118 + 833 + 233)
• Bears Get: 2,492 (960 + 909 + 623)
• NET: BEARS +308 (equivalent to pick #203 (mid-6th))

So, it depends where you look. Seeing that the value charts render a close outcome and the Bears get a crack at a third meaningful member of the roster, I'll take it and enjoy this slightly above-average move.

Grade: C+

#56: Bears Draft Boston College OT Ozzy Trapilo

Huh? This one has me scratching my head. I largely eschewed Trapilo in mock drafts for two key reasons: (i) he doesn't appear to have the athletic traits that Poles desires, and (ii) he is, by all accounts, a pure RT.

Trapilo played LT in 2022 and struggled. So, he flipped to the right side and was considerably better over the next two seasons. Does that mean he can't play LT? Probably not, but it does mean that there will be a learning curve. He surely won't be expected to step in at LT to start the 2025 season, which is a tricky proposition for such an experienced, older (23.5) prospect.

His athletic profile ends up being quite good in the aggregate, but that's more because he avoids having athletic flaws instead of having any elite traits, save for his 6'8" height. His arms are much shorter at 33" than those of the OTs that Poles has drafted in RT Darnell Wright (33.75") and OL Kiran Amegadjie (36.1"). Trapilo also has less impressive speed and explosion across the board when compared to Braxton Jones; this is a problem in a zone blocking scheme.

So, once again: huh.

There's no mistaking that the Bears' best offensive line combination in 2025 is as follows:

• LT Braxton Jones
• LG Joe Thuney
• C    Drew Dalman
• RG Jonah Jackson
• RT Darnell Wright

This leaves Amegadjie and Trapilo in swing bench roles, likely with Trapilo as the top backup OT and Amegadjie as the top G backup (remember that Amegadjie is allowed to get better, especially another year removed from injury).

Drafting Trapilo puts a lot of pressure on pick #109 to become a dude in light of Minnesota LT Aireontae Ersery going at #48, after #41 and before #56. Surely the Bears were lukewarm on Ersery and, if that's the case, the trade looks better.

This pick appears to say a lot more about the 2026 offensive line. With Amegadjie at #75 in 2024 and now Trapilo at #56 in 2025, there's almost no chance that the Bears entertain paying Jones the $20M+ he figures to command on the open market. But it also raises a big question for 2025: is there really a chance that the Bears flip Wright to LT this year? My goodness, I hope not. This pick will get a failing grade if the Bears truly elect not to bring back anyone in their 2024 spots on the line. If the approach, instead, is to throw Jones, Amegadjie, and Trapilo into a blender to see who emerges...great! That's what smart teams do.

This feels a little high for Trapilo and he's not my favorite guy, but this is a fine choice in the end.

Grade: C-

#62: Bears Draft Texas A&M DT Shemar Turner

Let's start with the plusses. Turner is a true 3-technique DT, an essential position in this defense. He can serve as Grady Jarrett's understudy in 2025 while playing in the rotation alongside Jarrett, Gervon Dexter, and Andrew Billings, then he can push Jarrett to the bench in 2026 if things go well. That's a great plan. Acquiring Turner also likely pushes Chris Williams off of the roster, freeing up some valuable cap space.

Turner has an impressive first step. When he pins his ears back and rushes up the middle, there's a good bit to like. Turner is a good athlete on the inside, having played 2023 at 270 lbs.

But it's impossible to evaluate Turner without considering a few big risks:

1. Opportunity Cost. There's an expectation that DE Dayo Odeyingbo will kick inside occasionally on third downs, meaning that the depth chart at DE is much more desperate for a new body than DT. This pick means that the Bears won't take a DE in the top 100 picks. Yikes. No pressure, Austin Booker.
2. Attitude. Turner's attitude is simultaneously exciting and concerning. He's intense and the Bears need some edge. On the other hand, he has committed seven personal foul penalties and been ejected from games in the past two years. That doesn't sound like intensity; that sounds like a lack of discipline.
3. Injury History. Trapilo has a rod in his foot. Turner had a rod inserted into his foot in January to repair a stress fracture that didn't heal before the 2024 season. And he had shoulder labrum surgery before the 2024 season. Yikes!

There are two other big thoughts for when when evaluating Turner. First, the value isn't great. Turner was routinely mocked about 20 spots lower, so this is a reach for a risky player. Second, and conversely, taking players from Texas A&M is a great path to success. A&M's coaching staff consistently underwhelms when developing players, so there's a good chance that there's untapped potential here.

Much like Trapilo, Turner is going to be compared to South Carolina DT T.J. Sanders, who Buffalo chose at pick #41 that they acquired from the Bears. He'll also be compared to Arkansas DE Landon Jackson, selected at #72 with the other pick that the Bears sent to Buffalo.

Turner is a sensible enough risk, I think, but not at #62; this feels like too rich of a spot for him.

Grade: C-

In the end, Day Two went...fine. The start was miraculous, but things slipped a bit from there. Credit where it's due, though: I'm ecstatic that Poles drafted multiple linemen this year and traded down and got Burden in the 2nd. Wild.

Now, the Bears have two key picks remaining at #109 and #148. Here is my hot list for those spots on Saturday as Poles goes to fill out the Draft class. I actually like some of the RBs more than I like the DEs, but DEs are much more valuable, hence the flavor of this list.

1. Georgia DE Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins
1. Crazy athlete who got buried behind Georgia's star-studded cast up front. He's a tremendous athlete with the big frame that Allen wants.
2. LSU DE Bradyn Swinson
1. Swinson isn't as long as Dennis Allen wants, but the speed and violence is too good to pass up outside of the top-100 picks.
3. Tennessee RB Dylan Sampson
1. Imagine if Tarik Cohen was a few inches and 30 lbs. bigger. He's undersized, but there's an explosive play waiting to happen here.
4. Arizona State RB Cam Skattebo
1. Skattebo is slow for an NFL RB. But he's outrageously explosive. I'm not sure what to do with that. But I think he'd be fun!
5. Texas DE Barryn Sorrell
1. Sorrell is similar to Swinson, only even smaller with slightly less impressive athleticism.
6. Kansas RB Devin Neal
1. I like Neal a lot. Nothing looks elite, but everything looks good.
7. SMU RB Brashard Smith
1. Smith is really fast, having recently converted to RB from WR. He's shifty and can make big plays, but he'll never form the long side of a backfield rotation.
8. Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders
1. WHAT??? The Bears actually offer Sanders a decent landing spot at this point, where he'll arrive as a clear backup who needs to practice his way into potential starter elsewhere. The value is here.
9. Oklahoma LB Danny Stutsman
1. Stutsman is no star, but he's got NFL athleticism. He needs to put things together.
10. Penn State S Jaylen Reed
1. Reed ran exceptionally well in pre-Draft testing, which allowed his otherwise strong tape to move him into this early Day Three territory. Good for him!
11. Ohio State S Lathan Ransom
1. Ransom is good. He's not great at anything in particular, but he's good at everything.
12. Virginia Tech RB Bhayshul Tuten
1. Fast. Crazy fast. Explosive. Crazy explosive. But small.
13. Georgia RB Trevor Etienne
1. He's a bit undersized, but there's big-play ability here.
14. Texas RB Jaydon Blue
1. Blue looks really little, but he's very fast and a bit slippery.
15. Clemson S R.J. Mickens
1. Mickens is a reasonably good athlete who coms with lots of experience and production.
16. Utah State WR Jalen Royals
1. I love Royals and have loved him throughout the Draft process. Unfortunately, it's nearly impossible to justify taking another WR high.
17. UTSA CB Zah Frazier
1. Frazier is extremely and seriously fast. With his rangy frame, he'd be a fund Cover-2 defender.
18. Nevada S Kitan Crawford
1. Crawford looks like a good player with strong instincts.
19. Oklahoma S Billy Bowman Jr.
1. Bowman is really small. But he's also really fast and flies around at the back of the defense.
20. Kentucky DT Deone Walker
1. Walker has really tumbled down the board throughout the Draft process. I think there's still plenty of intrigue here, but it's tough to justify another DT.
21. Wisconsin S Hunter Wohler
1. Productive for a long time, Wohler's athleticism was stunningly good. Cool!
22. South Carolina DE Kyle Kennard
1. I'm not sure how Kennard was so productive. He looks stiff. But he might be big enough and plays at a key spot.
23. Syracuse DE Fadil Diggs
1. Diggs is expected to go really late. He'd be a fine flyer in my eyes.
24. Ohio State DE Jack Sawyer
1. At some point, Sawyer's immense collegiate production will be enough to overcome his otherworldly small arm length (4th percentile) and wingspan (8th percentile). It's Day Three. We're there. But he's a terrible fit for Allen's defense.
25. Ole Miss DE Jared Ivey
1. Ivey is big, strong, and long. But my God, his Combine was an abomination. You'll never see an uglier RAS card.

Lots of good prospects here. All of them flawed. Here's what I'd like to see:

#109: Tennessee RB Dylan Sampson (Arizona State RB Cam Skattebo would also be very fun)

#148: Georgia DE Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins

#233: Nevada S Kitan Crawford

Final thought: Ben Johnson, it's time to produce. The new head man has seen Poles add a ludicrous haul to this offense. Johnson gets to run the show now!