2016 Chicago Cubs Player Predictions - Position Players

It's time again for predictions for the 2016 Chicago Cubs. Following last year's rousing success of a season, expectations are high and hopes are higher for the 2016 club. Let's see how the players might do. For each chart listed below, the PA, UZR and WAR columns reflect the player's total for that position only whereas the remaining columns reflect the player's total for all positions.

Catcher

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Montero, Miguel	400	.240	.335	.400	15	0	10	2.3
Ross, David	125	.205	.280	.325	5	0	10	0.5
Schwarber, Kyle	100	.265	.360	.495	30	3	-5	0.5
Contreras, Willson	15	.250	.310	.380	1	0	0	0.0

The catching group has a beautifully clean transition plan in place. Of course, the odds of such a transition actually occurring as expected are remote.

As I see it, the 2016 group figures to be comprised primarily of a combination of Miguel Montero and David Ross with a sprinkling of Kyle Schwarber. After Ross retires following the 2016 season, the 2017 tandem of Montero and hot prospect Willson Contreras looks likely to handle the job. After Montero's contract expires at the end of the 2017 season, the job should be Contreras's to lose with fellow prospect Victor Caratini given the first crack to be the complementary reserve.

For 2016, this figures to be one of the weaker links on the team and that says something given Montero's league-average production in 2015 before factoring in his elite framing ability. It'll be worth keeping an eye on how much the coaching staff trusts Schwarber behind the dish. Regardless, 3.3 WAR production would be well above average.

First Base

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Rizzo, Anthony	680	.290	.395	.540	37	8	6	6.5
Zobrist, Ben	20	.275	.365	.480	21	2	0.1	0.1

Hello! It's a little bizarre to project something of a mini-breakout for an established star like Rizzo, but I'm going for it for a few reasons. First, he's 26, an age at which a bit more growth would be warranted. Second, he fixed his major flaw last year, posting a 145 wRC+ against southpaws. Third, the lineup around Rizzo was strong in 2015 but it figures to be absurdly strong in 2016: he should be surrounded by the likes of Kris Bryant, Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, and Kyle Schwarber this year. While his walk rate may take a tiny dip as a result, I expect that he'll set a new career high for home runs even after belting 32 and 31 over 2014-15. Health has been key for Rizzo, so it will be interesting to see if Joe Maddon rests his slugging first baseman over Rizzo's protests.

Regardless, 6.6 WAR from the position would likely lead the Majors.

Second Base

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Zobrist, Ben	520	.275	.365	.480	21	2	8	3.8
Baez, Javier	90	.245	.295	.430	15	10	2	0.2
La Stella, Tommy	70	.280	.320	.365	2	0	1	0.2
Kawasaki, Munenori	20	.230	.300	.280	0	0	0.2	0

Second base is one of a few spots for the 2016 Cubs that has the ability of going in numerous different ways. While Ben Zobrist is penciled in as the everyday starter at the spot, injuries in the outfield and/or to Zobrist himself could result in a multitude of other players getting time at the keystone. Here's the thing: after years of health, Zobrist's 2015 injury appears to be an outlier, so I'm betting on a return to health for him in 2016. In addition to health, I think that he's going to enjoy hitting at Wrigley Field after spending time in a plethora of pitcher's parks during his career. He's also likely to benefit from hitting near the top of a loaded lineup. Everything is coming together for Zobrist to enjoy a return to under-the-radar stardom in 2016. If anything, this pick is a bit conservative.

Third Base

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Bryant, Kris	640	.270	.385	.520	34	10	5	6.5
Baez, Javier	40	.245	.295	.430	15	10	1	0.1
La Stella, Tommy	20	.280	.320	.365	2	0	0	0.1

This is the part where I start drooling. My affection for Bryant has never been a secret, but even after last year's BABIP-fueled star-level debut, I think he's going to blow the top off of his perceived ceiling. He's that good. Some slight regression from his defense and his baserunning will offset his offensive gains in terms of WAR, but Bryant will firmly entrench himself as one of the 10 or so elite offensive forces in baseball this year. Amazing!

Shortstop

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Russell, Addison	620	.275	.345	.450	20	20	20	5.5
Baez, Javier	80	.245	.295	.430	15	10	-1	0.4

Not to be outdone, fellow sophomore Addison Russell is well on his way to reminding folks that he's a budding star as well. He certainly has an uphill climb to reach the Bryant tier, but Russell has the combined defensive acumen and offensive potential to get there, especially considering his positional value. With Starlin Castro now the Yankees' problem, Russell has a job on a platter with a chance to show folks how truly special he is. I think he's going to be the breakout player in baseball this year.

Left Field

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Schwarber, Kyle	460	.265	.360	.495	30	3	-5	3.5
Soler, Jorge	180	.275	.350	.445	20	0	-3	0.7
Zobrist, Ben	60	.275	.365	.480	21	2	0.5	0.3

Left field could go a lot of different directions in 2016, but at the outset, it appears as though Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler will man the position for the majority of the time. If you find yourself thinking, "hey wait, wouldn't that be a terrible defensive position?" just know that I'm with you. I expect that somebody will make the roster by virtue of having a strong glove with which to cover this spot in the late innings of tight games, but for now, Zobrist is the placeholder.

Center Field

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Fowler, Dexter	450	.270	.365	.420	12	15	-10	1
Heyward, Jason	220	.275	.360	.455	20	20	3	2
Szczur, Matt	30	.250	.300	.330	1	2	0	0

This position looks a whole lot different than it did at the start of Spring Training. With Dexter Fowler back in the fold, he and Jason Heyward figure to handle the vast majority of the duties up the middle. Fowler comes with a long injury history, so the bet here is that he doesn't make it through a full season. No matter: the Cubs are wonderfully equipped to handle a prolonged absence.

Right Field

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Heyward, Jason	460	.275	.360	.455	20	20	10	4.5
Soler, Jorge	220	.275	.350	.445	20	0	-3	1
Schwarber, Kyle	20	.265	.360	.495	30	3	-0.1	.2

For a while this winter, it appeared as though Soler would have this spot for the taking, giving him access to a full-time gig in which to prove his chops as an everyday player. However, with the return of Fowler to play center field and with prospect Albert Almora turning things on in the second half at Double-A last year, Soler may find himself on the trade block in the not-too-distant future unless he hits his way into a regular gig. The bet here is that a Fowler injury gives Soler that opportunity and he earns his keep...before finding himself dealt elsewhere this winter anyway. No matter: for 2016, Soler may be the most valuable reserve bat in the game.

Designated Hitter

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Soler, Jorge	50	.275	.350	.445	20	0	0	0.3

After singing Soler's praises above, it only makes sense that the fragile corner outfielder will be the primary DH in American League parks.

POSITION PLAYER TOTALS
Here's a composite list of expected output for each player on the 2016 Cubs. Disclaimer: this looks especially rosy.

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Bryant, Kris	640	.270	.385	.520	34	10	5	6.5
Rizzo, Anthony	680	.290	.395	.540	37	8	6	6.5
Heyward, Jason	680	.275	.360	.455	20	20	13	6.5
Russell, Addison	620	.275	.345	.450	20	20	20	5.5
Zobrist, Ben	600	.275	.365	.480	21	2	8.6	4.2
Schwarber, Kyle	580	.265	.360	.495	30	3	-10.1	4.2
Montero, Miguel	400	.240	.335	.400	15	0	10	2.3
Soler, Jorge	450	.275	.350	.445	20	0	-6	2.0
Fowler, Dexter	450	.270	.365	.420	12	15	-10	1.0
Ross, David	125	.205	.280	.325	5	0	10	0.5
Baez, Javier	210	.245	.295	.430	15	10	2	0.7
La Stella, Tommy	90	.280	.320	.365	2	0	1	0.3
Szczur, Matt	30	.250	.300	.330	1	2	0	0.0
Kawasaki, Munenori	20	.230	.300	.280	0	0	0.2	0.0
Contreras, Willson	15	.250	.310	.380	1	0	0	0.0

If that comes true, the Cubs will easily win 100+ games and enter October as prohibitive favorites to win the World Series.

But you have to pitch, too. Thankfully, the Cubs are really good at pitching as well. I'll tackle that in the next post.

2016 MLB Picks

As the end of March nears, Opening Day is just one week away! There will certainly be celebrations throughout the land as first pitches around the country announce the official return of summer.

As we look forward that single week, I'd like to look forward seven months instead to the end of October and envision what the standings and playoff tree will look like at the end of the season. It's time for my sure-to-be-wildly-wrong 2016 MLB picks.

American League Central
Cleveland (93-69)
Detroit (86-76)
Kansas City (84-78)
Chicago White Sox (82-80)
Minnesota (78-84)

The AL Central could be won by any of the division's five teams. The Twins have a middling rotation and some holes in the lineup, but the club's ceiling is extremely high if everything breaks right as full seasons from Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano could be a real boost while wild card pitchers like Ervin Santana and Ricky Nolasco are projected for subpar results despite having plenty of success under their belts. The Twins are on their way, but it might take another year.

The White Sox have addressed many of their largest holes and their starting rotation looks excellent, especially with Carson Fulmer inevitably arrives during the season's first half to join Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Carlos Rodon. Wow. So why won't they win? Simple: they can't play defense and there's no depth. One of those items will scuttle their postseason dreams.

The Royals just keep winning, so it feels silly to project them so close to .500. I just hate their starting rotation. It's not any good.

The Tigers filled their holes admirably this winter, but their aged offense and dearth of depth should give them trouble this year. They'll be in the hunt, however, so good on Mike Ilitch for keeping the team in the mix. Either Daniel Norris or Michael Fulmer will push them into the Wild Card Game.

That brings us to Cleveland. I loved them last year and they underperformed as much as any team has in years. With Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar, their top-three is as good as it gets. Trevor Bauer still comes with plenty of ceiling and their elite bullpen will finally win them bundles of games. Don't be surprised if they make a big move for an outfielder to bridge the gap from their current roster to the dynamic duo of Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier, both of whom need a bit more seasoning. But that's tinkering: the rotation, bullpen, and Kipnis-Lindor combination up the middle will have the Indians winning the Central this year.

American League East
Boston (88-74)
Toronto (86-76)
New York Yankees (78-84)
Tampa Bay (77-85)
Baltimore (70-92)

It's difficult for me to hate an offseason more than the one the Orioles had. They caught a break when Matt Wieters accepted his qualifying offer, something that should pay dividends for Baltimore. But paying top dollar to keep flash-in-the-pan slugger Chris Davis while allowing Wei-Yin Chen to walk boggles my mind. Their outfield looks poor as Adam Jones ages and their starting rotation looks really, really bad. They're going to struggle again in the East.

While the Orioles will struggle in their rotation, the Rays have a true ace in Chris Archer followed by a number of strong complementary arms. Unfortunately, they just can't hit. They won't score enough to win.

The Yankees are going to have a mind-blowing bullpen with Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, and Aroldis Chapman ending plenty of games after six innings. Unfortunately for them, the New York position players leave a lot to be desired even before their contracts are considered. It's a middling group that could yield anywhere from 72 to 92 wins, but I think that (1) distractions surrounding Chapman and (2) injuries to the old guard will keep the Yanks closer to their floor.

After finally breaking out with a wildly talented core group, the Jays are going to fall back some due to a rotation that doesn't stack up. The back of their bullpen should hold up and they're going to score a lot, but I don't like the rotation enough.

This gets us to the BoSox. I'm not under the illusion that Boston will excel in 2016, but it's difficult to add David Price and Craig Kimbrel to a roster without making it significantly better. There's plenty of depth in the upper minors to buoy the team throughout the season and their offense should score a lot of runs. This team still comes with a lot more risk that you'd regularly expect from such an expensive roster, but the ceiling is high and the floor has come up considerably. I like their chances to reach October.

American League West
Houston (95-67)
Anaheim (84-78)
Seattle (83-79)
Texas (80-82)
Oakland (68-94)

Words that I plan to eat in six months: I hate the roster that Billy Beane has built in Oakland. The starting rotation looks awful after Sonny Gray, and the only lineup regular projected for an on-base percentage above .325 is the awful Yonder Alonso. This is a bad team headed for a July fire sale. Get your Gray trade proposals ready!

In contrast to Oakland, I actually like the roster built by Texas GM Jon Daniels. Yet I think that the lack of starting pitching or bullpen depth will prevent the club from returning to the playoffs. There's nothing particularly wrong with Texas; it's just that some teams have to lose more than we might expect on the surface. I'm picking the Rangers. Their minor league system should have them back in contention by 2017, however.

The Mariners are the weirdest collection of talent with plenty of average-ish looking regulars who could be hugely disappointing (examples: Seth Smith, Ketel Marte, Leonys Martin, Hisashi Iwakuma) and a few stars coming off of bizarre 2015 seasons as Felix Hernandez collapsed in the second half after Robinson Cano did so in the first half. I could see the M's break the 90-win barrier but I could just as easily see them meander toward a 78-win year. Gross. The future looks bleak, though, as their system refuses to produce fruit.

How far can a few stars carry an otherwise subpar team? Mike Trout, Garrett Richards, Kole Calhoun, Andrelton Simmons, and perhaps Andrew Heaney are about to tell us. This is a club that figures to start Jered Weaver, Carlos Perez, Johnny Giavotella, C.J. Cron, and Daniel Nava. Yunel Escobar and/or Tyler Skaggs will need huge years to push them into the playoffs.

Strangely, I'm not impressed by the Houston rotation - lack of velocity can do that sometimes - but the roster as a whole is beautiful. You want effective starting pitching? Dallas Keuchel, Colin McHugh, Lance McCullers, and Mike Fiers are here. You want a lock-down back-of-the-bullpen duo? Look no further than Ken Giles and Luke Gregerson. Like teams that are strong up the middle? Jason Castro, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Carlos Gomez are as good as it gets. Want power in the corners? Despite their other flaws (namely lacking on-base skills), Jon Singleton, Luis Valbuena, Colby Rasmus, and George Springer fit the bill. This doesn't feel like a traditional powerhouse given the flaws of some of the players, but I believe in this team.

National League Central
Chicago Cubs (97-65)
St. Louis (90-72)
Pittsburgh (87-75)
Cincinnati (74-88)
Milwaukee (63-99)

Some teams lose because they aren't quite good enough. Other teams lose because players get injured or prospects falter. The 2016 Brewers? They're going to lose because they're trying to lose. It's going to be an ugly summer in Milwaukee. Their best hope is that guys like Matt Garza and Jonathan Lucroy recover enough trade value to return a real package at the deadline while the front office hits on their top picks.

The Reds won't be as bad as their record indicates; they're just stuck in a loaded division. Their rotation should be about average while their position players should be as well...at least until the front office unloads a few more of them this summer, causing their record to falter. This franchise will be relevant again soon.

The Pirates are going to be good. Seriously good. Their rotation looks wobbly after Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano, but their bullpen is excellent with a few wild cards who could make it even better, their outfield defense remains superb, and their infield has some upside possibilities. Will that be enough in 2016 in the haves and have-nots National League? It's going to be close.

The Cardinals always have pitching and 2016 will be no different. It's difficult to envision an elite ceiling with their roster, but their floor is extremely high. They'll be in the race all year, even before accounting for the fact that the Cardinals always win. Their attempts to nab Jason Heyward and David Price in free agency do indicate that their front office figured that the team needed a boost. Perhaps there's a crack in the armor?

There's no pretending that I'm not biased toward the Cubs, but even taking off my fan cap in favor of my analyst cap yields the same result: this team is undeniably enticing, loaded with talent at every position with contingency plans to spare. Don't love the Miguel Montero-David Ross catching duo? One of baseball's top catching prospects, Willson Contreras, awaits at Triple-A. Don't think Jason Heyward is a centerfielder? Don't worry, Dexter Fowler is back to handle the position. Don't love the infield of Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo, and Ben Zobrist? Well, first off, you're crazy. Secondly, Javier Baez and Tommy La Stella are there to soften any injury blows. And even if you don't believe in Jake Arrieta or you worry about injuries after his 2015 workload, a rotation of Jon Lester, John Lackey, Kyle Hendricks, Jason Hammel, and Adam Warren with Travis Wood as the sixth man stacks up well among Major League rotations. This team is loaded. Let's see if they can avoid the Cubness that has doomed previous rosters. The floor is extraordinarily high by virtue of the talent and depth of the roster, but with only five playoff spots available for nine clubs, good teams will miss the playoffs.

National League West
Los Angeles (94-68)
San Francisco (93-69)
Arizona (84-78)
San Diego (72-90)
Colorado (60-102)

Nolan Arenado is aweoms.e Jake McGee is too. Other than that, no player stands out as impactful for the Rockies and the likes of Ben Paulson, Chad Bettis, and Jordan Lyles all figure to play prominent roles for the club in 2015. I'm still dumbfounded that the team didn't find a new home for Carlos Gonzalez last summer, though taking on Jose Reyes' terrible deal as part of the Troy Tulowitzki swap is probably even worse, even before Reyes' domestic abuse disaster. 2016 will be a year to forget (unless you love athletic, rangy outfield prospects like David Dahl and Raimel Tapia).

The Padres will be better than a 70-92 club this year, but (1) the top three teams in their division will make this year tougher, and (2) A.J. Preller will almost certainly jump at the chance to reload his farm system if the likes of James Shields and Andrew Cashner produce this year. A healthy first half from Cashner would be a huge boon to the franchise.

The Diamondbacks are projected to receive a grand total of 2.0 WAR from their shortstop, second base, and left field positions. Combined. Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Zack Greinke, and Patrick Corbin are all really good (assuming Pollock's 2015 was real), but the holes on this roster are significant. Welington Castillo is a good fit for the ballpark as a power-first catcher, but he was available for peanuts as recently as last summer and there's nothing in the system to replace him if he falters. Despite Greinke's addition and the ridiculous overpay for Shelby Miller, Dave Stewart's club is still loaded with warts.

I went back and forth over and over again between the Giants and Dodgers. In the end, the San Francisco outfield cost them the division as the injury woes of Hunter Pence, Denard Span, Gregor Blanco, and Angel Pagan make the position group iffy. Their infield is amazing (Posey, Belt, Panik, Crawford, Duffy --> WOW!) and their pitching staff should be as good as any in the game, though they'll likely have to acquire a starting pitcher at the deadline assuming that all else is progressing smoothly. I expect that the Bumgarner-Cueto-Samardzija trio will win them a lot of games this year. Good look to whoever faces MadBum in October.

Then we have the Dodgers, aka where pitchers go to get hurt. The Dodgers weaknesses appear to be their outfield (after Yasiel Puig) and their non-Kershaw starting pitchers, but between Joc Pederson, Andre Ethier, Scott Van Slyke, and Carl Crawford in the outfield, and Scott Kazmir, Kenta Maeda, Alex Wood, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Brandon McCarthy, Brett Anderson, Zach Lee, and prospects Julio Urias and Jose De Leon in the rotation, the Dodgers should easily fill their holes adequately. I don't know if they'll be an excellent team, but they'll be really good and without holes.

National League East
New York Mets (91-71)
Washington (84-78)
Miami (83-79)
Philadelphia (64-98)
Atlanta (62-100)

The battle for the cellar in the NL East is going to be a doozy. The Braves have done their darndest to get there, and when they make up an insignificant injury for Freddie Freeman that somehow keeps him out of action for two months, they'll lose just enough to get to the basement. If they trade Julio Teheran and Erick Aybar, as expected, their win total could drop into the mid-50s. They'll be much more interesting in September when their gaggle of prospects begins to arrive.

The Phillies will be terrible, make no mistake about it. But they're going to pitch just a bit too well to out-lose the Braves. Still, yuck. What an awful roster.

The Marlins outfield looks great again, especially with a healthy Giancarlo Stanton, and the rotation has a two-headed monster that should work quite well with Jose Fernandez and Wei-Yin Chen. Unfortunately, the infield underwhelms, the back of the rotation looks quite poor, and the bullpen has massive holes at the back given a wobbly elbow for A.J. Ramos and Tommy John surgery for Carter Capps. The Marlins could make some noise this year, but I don't think that they're deep enough, in part because I don't believe in Dee Gordon.

It's remarkable how quickly the Nationals went from looking like the best team in the game to looking like Angels East. Bryce Harper, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Anthony Rendon still form an idyllic core, but the supporting pieces are either raw (Joe Ross, Lucas Giolito, Trea Turner) or fragile (Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth). There's absolutely a 90+ win team in here, but there's also a sputtering .500 roster in play. If anything happens to the five players listed above, they have no shot. That's too risky. Plus, Jon Papelbon inexplicably remains on the roster and that just doesn't bode well.

The Mets position players look solid across the board and the club will have excellent depth among their 13 rostered non-pitchers. There's a lack of star power given Yoenis Cespedes's glovework in center field and David Wright's injury woes, but average or better regulars at nearly every spot put them in good position. With the rotation, Zack Wheeler and Rafael Montero are on the outside looking in. That says enough. The bullpen isn't quite that strong, but it should be a plus unit. They're going to cruise to the East crown.

Season Summary and Playoff Tree
The above picks would see the American League feature an above-average collective record of 1232-1198, primarily by virtue of avoiding the stinkbombs expected to come out of Atlanta, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and Colorado. The playoff matchups in the National League would be a dream for Commissioner Manfred whereas the American League matchups...not so much. Let's look at the playoffs:

Wild Card Games
Detroit over Toronto
San Francisco over St. Louis

Division Series
Detroit over Houston
Cleveland over Boston
Chicago Cubs over San Francisco
New York Mets over Los Angeles

Championship Series
Cleveland over Detroit
New York Mets over Chicago Cubs

World Series
New York Mets over Cleveland

The Commissioner's head might explode if he gets to pair a New York-Los Angeles matchup with a Chicago-San Francisco matchup a year after having the same pair of series with San Francisco replacing St. Louis. It's almost too much.

Awards
Finally, no season is complete with selecting the best players in each league. Accordingly, here are my predicted award winners:

MVP
AL: CF Mike Trout
NL: RF Giancarlo Stanton

Cy Young
AL: Corey Kluber
NL: SP Madison Bumgarner

Rookie of the Year
AL: CF Byron Buxton
NL: SS Corey Seager

Manager of the Year
AL: Terry Francona
NL: Bruce Bochy

Let the fun begin!

A Revised Look at the Bears 2016 Draft Following Free Agency

My last post, a pre-free agency look at a dream scenario for the 2016 offseason, stated that the Bears needed to find the following:

- a starting DE
- two starting ILBs
- a starting CB
- a starting OT/OG
- a starting-caliber TE

Well, here we are two months later and that list is markedly shorter in that it is now empty. Sweet! Here's what Pace did to address the above:

- a starting DE
---------- signed DE Akiem Hicks to a two-year, $10M contract ($5M guaranteed)

- two starting ILBs
---------- signed ILB Danny Trevathan to a four-year, $24.5M contract ($12M guaranteed)
---------- signed ILB Jerrell Freeman to a three-year, $12M contract ($6M guaranteed)

- a starting CB
---------- signed CB Tracy Porter to a three-year, $15M contract ($4.25M guaranteed)

- a starting OT/OG
---------- signed OT Bobby Massie to a three-year, $18M contract ($6.5M guaranteed)

- a starting-caliber TE
---------- signed TE Zach Miller to a two-year, $6M contract ($3M guaranteed)

As is often the case when dealing with non-elite free agents, there is very little dead money on any of these deals following year one. In fact, the crown jewel of the class, Trevathan, has more dead money on his deal as of 2017 ($5.75M) than all other free agents signed to multi-year deals by the Bears this March combined: Freeman ($2M), Hicks ($1M), Massie ($1M), Porter ($600K), Miller ($500K), and Sherrick McManis ($300K) have $5.4M in dead money combined on their deals next year.

Pace effectively signed an entire free agent class to somewhat glorified one-year deals with the exception of Trevathan. Good on you, Ryan.

At this point, despite the fact that the Bears have approximately $21,584,432 in cap space according to my calculations (after accounting for dead money, the draft class, and the practice squad), I expect that Pace is probably done shopping for free agents, at least until after the draft (even though a guy like CB Leon Hall or G/C Stefen Wisniewski would look fantastic filling out this roster).

Which points us to the draft. The best draft approach involves taking the best player available, though the ideal draft scenario involves the best player available while simultaneously filling a position of need/want on a team's roster. Such was the case with WR Kevin White and subsequently with NT Eddie Goldman last year. So what are the odds of the same thing happening this year?

Very, very good.

Following Pace's free agent barrage, my rough estimates for each position groups areas of need/improvement are as follows with "10" representing the Bears quarterback position of the early 2000s and "0" representing the Bears Hall of Fame-studded defensive line of the mid-1980s:

0: WR, G
1: ILB
2: NT
3:
4: C
5: DE
6:
7: RB
8: OT
9: QB, TE, OLB, S
10: CB, K

The team is loaded with talent - though not necessarily of the star variety - at wide receiver, guard, and inside linebacker, not even needing additional reserves. Nose tackle only makes the list because Terry Williams and D'Anthony Smith are underwhelming backups to stud Goldman.

Hroniss Grasu should be pushed at center but only by a reserve, and while the quartet of Akiem Hicks, Ego Ferguson, Will Sutton, and Cornelius Washington could use another, better body, the need isn't alarming at this point.

As for the other spots: Jeremy Langford could use a buddy. Charles Leno is hardly proven at LT. The tight end group would have seen this number drop in a big way had the Saints declined to match Josh Hill's offer sheet but since New Orleans kept Hill, the duo of Miller and Khari Lee needs more intrigue. Lamarr Houston showed enough in December to warrant another look this year, but it's entirely possible that Willie Young and Houston will be gone after this year, rendering OLB a serious need, especially with Pernell McPhee's fragility. The safety group needs an infusion of a better young athlete than Harold Jones-Quartey, but this group would be a "7" if Antrel Rolle was solid and a "10!" if Rolle was hurt again.

It's no secret that Jay Cutler doesn't figure to last forever with the Bears and, in fact, he can be cut following the 2016 season with a dead money charge of just $2M. New regimes mean new quarterbacks, so expect to see Pace and John Fox grab a new quarterback at some point in the next 14 months, either in this draft or the next one.

As for the two biggest outstanding needs: the cornerback group is quite poor. I maintain plenty of hope for Bryce Callahan as a #4 CB and Kyle Fuller still looks like a #1/#2 if things continue to work. But Tracy Porter is a fragile #3 and Sherrick McManis should only play on special teams. The Bears need a new body to top the depth chart here. And then kicker. This makes me eminently sad. Robbie Gould has lived my dream sports life: this former kicker and fan of both the Nittany Lions and Bears has always loved Robbie. However, in 2015, Gould was the NFL's worst kicker by a wide margin - primarily by virtue of his terrible kickoffs - making his $4.1M cap hit absolutely untenable. Gould figures to benefit more than any other kicker in the league from the NFL's rule change moving touchbacks from the 20 to the 25, but it's also possible that his leg is spent. If I'm advocating for his release, it's almost certainly time.

With that treatise out of the way, let's look at the draft. As a reminder, each pick's targets consider the players previously drafted. Accordingly, for example, if the team drafts two cornerbacks earlier in the draft, don't expect to see another one in the 6th round.

First Round (#11 overall)
Possibilities: DE DeForest Buckner (Oregon), DE A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama), CB Vernon Hargreaves (Florida), OT Ronnie Stanley (Notre Dame),  QB Carson Wentz (North Dakota State), QB Jared Goff (California), OT Jack Conklin (Michigan State)

Analysis: Since my last update, two major developments have rocked the draft board. First, Jaylon Smith's knee injury has proved to be much more alarming than expected, likely dropping Smith out of the first round entirely and sending him well down the draft board. Second, my personal favorite, Myles Jack, has wowed teams and prognosticators with his crazy skills, sending him flying up draft boards. While this is no surprise to me, it means that Jack is out of consideration.

Much like last time, I assume that a group of players will be gone: OT Laremy Tunsil, DE Joey Bosa, Jack, and S Jalen Ramsey. In this underwhelming class, that's it.

I'm not a fan of Georgia OLB Leonard Floyd, so I have the Bears looking at seven prospects. Either QB (Wentz or Goff) fits. Conklin or Stanley would both make plenty of sense. But the bet here is that Pace goes with one of the defenders, grabbing Robinson or Buckner to bring a pass rush from the edge-setting 3-4 DE spot or Hargreaves to man the #1 CB spot. Because I only like-but-don't-love Hargreaves, I'll state my preference for one of the DEs. If I'm choosing between those two, it's easy.

The Pick: DE DeForest Buckner (Oregon)

Second Round (#41 overall)
Possibilities: OLB Shilique Calhoun (Michigan State), CB Mackensie Alexander (Clemson), CB Eli Apple (Ohio State), CB Kendall Fuller (Virginia Tech), OT Jason Spriggs (Indiana), OT Taylor Decker (Ohio State), TE Hunter Henry (Arkansas)

Analysis: This group is simply defined: a pass rusher, three corners, two tackles, and a tight end since the Saints kept Hill.

My favorite player in the group remains Apple, though any of these players would be a nice addition to the roster. While Fuller would be a nice story being paired with his brother, his injury concerns are significant.

The Pick: CB Eli Apple (Ohio State)

Third Round (#72 overall)
Possibilities: QB Christian Hackenberg (Penn State), QB Connor Cook (Michigan State), S Vonn Bell (Ohio State), S Jalen Mills (LSU), OT Tyler Johnstone (Oregon)

Analysis: This is definitely the toughest pick of the draft for the Bears. If both quarterbacks are on the board, the front office will be tempted to nab one given their impressive pedigrees and conceivably coachable flaws.

Unfortunately, both safeties represent even bigger needs and similar values.

I still love Mills. I'm not changing this pick until somebody makes me. Given Cook's arm and his pro-style experience, I doubt he makes it quite this far. Accordingly, I'll stick with the safety while acknowledging that I'd probably take Cook over Mills if presented with the opportunity.

The Pick: S Jalen Mills (LSU)

Fourth Round (#106 overall)
Possibilities: ILB Jaylon Smith (Notre Dame), OLB Carl Nassib (Penn State), QB Cardale Jones (Ohio State), OLB Alex McCalister (Florida)

Analysis: This is another interesting spot.

I think that the front office would jump at Smith if he dropped this far. He's an impact talent if healthy, so even if there's only a 5% chance that he's healthy, the value is simply too strong this far down in the draft. He probably doesn't fall this far. Probably.

Nassib is the definition of a one-year wonder. In 2014, he had seven tackles. In 2015, he had 15.5 sacks even though he missed a quarter of the season with a shoulder injury. He's got more of a classic 4-3 DE build, but he added nearly 60 pounds to his frame in college, so it may be worth examining whether he could shed 10-15 of those to man an OLB spot.

Jones is a flyer on a big-bodied, big-armed, inexperienced quarterback who should have turned pro 14 months ago.

McCalister jumps out at me, too. He's a little undersized and his straight-line speed isn't overwhelming. It's possible than NFL tackles will simply be too big and strong for him to use his pass rushing moves. But I like what I've seen and I think that he could work as a specialist, even as a rookie.

I'm going to assume that Smith is off the board; otherwise, he'd be the pick, risk be damned.

The Pick: OLB Alex McCalister (Florida)

Fourth Round (#127 overall)
Possibilities: S Jayron Kearse (Clemson), OT Denver Kirkland (Arkansas), OT Caleb Benenoch (UCLA), DE Anthony Zettel (Penn State)

Analysis: The pre-draft process hasn't been particularly kind to Kearse or Zettel which tells me that either player would represent solid value at this juncture: they're better football players than they are testing prospects.

Kirkland was intriguing before but I don't love him. Benenoch, on the other hand, really jumps out to me. He's a perfect reserve as a rookie given that he played both guard and tackle at UCLA. Further, the Combine revealed that while his arms aren't as long as Stanley's or Conklin's, they are comparable to those of Tunsil. That's plenty encouraging and probably worth a flyer.

The Pick: OT Caleb Benenoch (UCLA)

Fifth Round (#150 overall)
Possibilities: DE Shawn Oakman (Baylor), RB Devontae Booker (Utah), RB Kenyan Drake (Alabama), RB Kelvin Taylor (Florida), S Elijah Shumate (Notre Dame)

Analysis: Oakman might not be all that good at football, but the chance to take a shot on a 6'9", 280-lbs. DE sure is tempting.

Drake comes with serious injury red flags (multiple broken bones in college) but also the plusses of being (1) incredibly fast and (2) a backup running back from Alabama. Those guys have solid track records. Booker and Taylor are both solid enough as prospects, though neither is as enticing as Drake.

The Pick: RB Kenyan Drake (Alabama)

Sixth Round (#185 overall)
Possibilities: CB Cyrus Jones (Alabama)

Analysis: Jones would still be a great return man, but with Deonte Thompson on board and a league that continually marginalizes the value of returns, perhaps he's not worth it to the Bears. His 40 time and his tiny frame make it tough to employ him as a regular in the defensive backfield. That said, if Jones is available, he'll be a great pick here.

The Pick: CB Cyrus Jones (Alabama)

Sixth Round (#206 overall)
Possibilities: NT Antwaun Woods (USC), TE Bryce Williams (East Carolina)

Analysis: Woods would still be a nice get here to backup Goldman. Williams obviously comes with some optimism too, though his speed (or lack thereof) knocks him down a peg or two.

The Pick: NT Antwaun Woods (USC)

Seventh Round (#230 overall)
Possibilities: K Ka'imi Fairbairn (UCLA)

Analysis: If the Bears can still nab Fairbairn here, they should do it and pocket the massive cap savings.

The Pick: K Ka'imi Fairbairn (UCLA)

The complete draft class as listed above would be as follows:

1.011: DE DeForest Buckner (Oregon)
2.041: CB Eli Apple (Ohio State)
3.072: S    Jalen Mills (LSU)
4.106: OLB Alex McCalister (Florida)
4.127: OT Caleb Benenoch (UCLA)
5.150: RB Kenyan Drake (Alabama)
6.185: CB Cyrus Jones (Alabama)
6.206: NT Antwaun Woods (USC)
7.230: K   Ka'imi Fairbairn (UCLA)

FINAL ROSTER With all of that wheeling and dealing - both real and projected - the Bears would find themselves with the following approximate 53-man roster (draftees in italics, free agents in bold, re-signed free agents underlined):

SP (3): Ka'imi Fairbairn, Pat O'Donnell, Patrick Scales
QB (2): Jay Cutler, David Fales
C   (1): Hroniss Grasu
G   (2): Kyle Long, Matt Slauson
OT (5): Bobby Massie, Charles Leno, Jr., Tayo Fabuluje, Caleb Benenoch, Nick Becton
RB (4): Jeremy Langford, Ka'Deem Carey, Jacquizz Rodgers, Kenyan Drake
WR (7): Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White, Eddie Royal, Marquess Wilson, Deonte Thompson, Marc Mariani, Josh Bellamy
TE (3): Zach Miller, Khari Lee, Rob Housler
NT (2): Eddie Goldman, Antwaun Woods
DE (6): Akiem Hicks, DeForest Buckner, Ego Ferguson, Will Sutton, Mitch Unrein, Cornelius Washington
ILB (4): Danny Trevathan, Jerrell Freeman, Christian Jones, Jonathan Anderson
OLB (4): Pernell McPhee, Lamarr Houston, Willie Young, Alex McCalister
CB (6): Kyle Fuller, Tracy Porter, Eli Apple, Bryce Callahan, Cyrus Jones, Sherrick McManis
S    (4): Adrian Amos, Jalen Mills, Antrel Rolle, Harold Jones-Quartey

There's no chance of the team keeping seven receivers, with Bellamy as the most likely odd man out given that he has no guaranteed money in his contract. Still, that's not a bad team. Not bad at all.

My Dream for the 2016 Bears Offseason

Back in September, I took a look at the 2017 Bears, imaging what steps could transpire between now and then to set the club up for success. In the intervening time, we've learned a lot more about (1) the 2015 Bears, (2) the 2016 NFL draft prospects, and (3) the basic approach of John Fox and Ryan Pace.

It seems certain that Offensive Coordinator Adam Gase will be finding his way to a promotion elsewhere this week. Good for him. From the Bears' perspective, that means that the club will be looking for a new offensive head man in addition to looking to improve the roster this spring.

The team showed marked improvement after a disastrous 0-3 start that featured basically no resistance to Aaron Rodgers in the opener, a beatdown at home thanks to the Cardinals, and an absolute drubbing in Seattle at the hands of the defending conference champions. The team settled into a 6-7 run the rest of the way, losing plenty of games due to a dearth of talent and some special teams woes while winning a handful of tight games, including three nail-biters against 2015 playoff squads (Green Bay, Kansas City, and Washington).

I still don't see a way for the Bears to be a great team before 2017, but the Pace/Fox regime showed enough in 2015 to allow me to squint enough to see 10 wins in 2016 if everything breaks just right. Why am I so optimistic? Two reasons: cap space (and the necessary cash on hand to go with it) and the returns from the 2015 rookie class.

The Bears have something like $35M of cap space this spring even accounting for their draft class and Alshon Jeffery's franchise tag. They should have oodles of cash on hand as well. That's a great combination heading into free agency.

As for the 2015 rookie class, it was a truly impressive bunch. Top pick Kevin White missed the entire season with a stress fracture, and while some of the updates from his recovery were less than thrilling, there's plenty of reason to hope that he recovers in full this summer in advance of the 2016 season. I was an unabashed White fan; he was one of my favorite draft targets at wide receiver since...well, Alshon. The Jeffery-White pairing could be dominant.

Second-rounder Eddie Goldman emerged as the 3-4 NT anchor that we hoped he would be. With minimal continued improvement, he should be a foundational piece for the defense.

Third-rounder Hroniss Grasu was forced into action a year ahead of schedule, and he desperately needs to add at least 15 pounds to his frame if he's going to make it. That said, his quickness was evident and a slightly larger Grasu should be a solid starter at center.

Fourth-rounder Jeremy Langford has Bears fans talking about Matt Forte's impending departure as if it's basically nothing. That says a lot.

Fifth-rounder safety Adrian Amos grabbed a starting job and never let go, improving his angles as the year went out. I watched him pick off plenty of balls while at Penn State, and a stronger front seven should give him a chance to show his ball skills moving forward.

Sixth-rounder OT Tayo Fabuluje was the one non-contributor of the group and he even got suspended for a substance violation, but he was always going to be a project on the line. There's hope here that he can grow into a reserve role.

On top of those draftees, a quintet of undrafted free agents made some serious noise this year. From most likely to stick around long term to least likely to do so:

- TE Khari Lee: he was plenty adept as a blocker and moves well enough to suggest that he'll develop as a pass catcher, to some degree anyway
- CB Bryce Callahan: for a team with desperate needs at CB, Callahan was a find before succumbing to injury
- S   Harold Jones-Quartey: looked like a legitimate starter in late-season action; he should stick as a reserve at the least
- ILB Jonathan Anderson: looks physically overmatched but he did get on the field
- ILB John Timu: ditto Anderson, though less physically overmatched

That is a ton of rookie contributions. This draft class has the chance to be among the best that the Bears have ever had, especially if White proves to be the stud that I imagined and not an injury washout.

So how can the Bears build the roster that they'd need to get to 10 wins next year? Let's try to do it.

As always, I'll start with a look at the current roster and move on to free agency and the draft.

Specialists
Current Players: Robbie Gould (K), Pat O'Donnell (P), Patrick Scales (LS)
2016 Players: UNKNOWN (K), O'Donnell (P), Scales (LS)
Level of Need: 3
Analysis: Even though this group likely won't change unless the team finds a vastly preferable long snapper, it's time to move on from Gould, as much as it pains me to say it.

Quarterback
Current Players: Jay Cutler, David Fales
2016 Players: Cutler, Fales
Level of Need: 6
Analysis: Cutler likely gets cut following the 2016 season barring a stunning advancement, but with $10M of dead money against the 2016 cap if he is cut this spring versus just $2M of dead money against the 2017 cap if he is cut in March 2017, he should stick around. He's probably no better than an average starter right now, but the Bears could certainly do worse.

Center
Current Players: Will Montgomery, Hroniss Grasu
2016 Players: Grasu
Level of Need: 1
Analysis: This is Grasu's job to lose.

Guard
Current Players: Matt Slauson, Vladimir Ducasse, Patrick Omameh
2016 Players: Slauson, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 9
Analysis: Slauson has been great whereas Ducasse and Omameh were dreadful. The team must find new options at guard. Ideally, Kyle Long slides back inside. Unfortunately, the front office and coaching staff seem dead-set on Long playing tackle. Fabuluje could become the backup guard.

Offensive Tackle
Current Players: Jermon Bushrod, Kyle Long, Charles Leno, Jr., Tayo Fabuluje
2016 Players: Long, Leno, Fabuluje, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 8
Analysis: Bushrod is likely done with his playing career. Even if it's not time to retire, the Bears will be cutting him this spring. Accordingly, the need for a left tackle is...surprisingly not a 10? Leno acquitted himself well and may offer enough to dream on. In an ideal world, the front office will acquire a franchise-caliber tackle and slide Leno into a reserve/swing role.

Running Back
Current Players: Matt Forte, Jeremy Langford, Jacquizz Rodgers, Ka'Deem Carey, Senorise Perry (IR)
2016 Players: Langford, Carey, Perry, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 3
Analysis: I no longer expect Forte back, but in 2016, it's unlikely that the Bears will commit any major resources to finding Langford a complementary back. Nor should they. Carey has carved out a role as a special teamer and short-yardage back. Good for him.

Wide Receiver
Current Players: Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White, Eddie Royal, Marquess Wilson, Cameron Meredith, Marc Mariani, Josh Bellamy, Deonte Thompson
2016 Players: Jeffery, White, Royal, Wilson, Thompson
Level of Need: 1
Analysis: I'm just assuming that Alshon gets the franchise tag unless he agrees to a long-term deal. There's no way that the Bears will just let him walk...right?

With needs elsewhere on the roster, this position group actually looks quite strong even if every member comes with rather significant injury concerns.

Tight End
Current Players: Martellus Bennett, Zach Miller, Khari Lee, Gannon Sinclair
2016 Players: Miller, Lee, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 8
Analysis: I have a feeling that Marty will be playing elsewhere next year. I doubt that the Bears will demand any aggressive bounty in any deal, and they will probably move him for the right to recoup the sixth-round pick traded to Houston to acquire Lee last fall. In that case, the team needs bodies at this spot.

A reunion with Miller would be eminently reasonable. If Miller bolts, this need is a full-blown 10.

Nose Tackle
Current Players: Eddie Goldman, D'Anthony Smith
2016 Players: Goldman, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 2
Analysis: Goldman was discussed above. He's a huge piece of this defense. He does need a reserve, however.

Defensive End
Current Players: Ego Ferguson, Jarvis Jenkins, Cornelius Washington, Will Sutton
2016 Players: Ferguson, Sutton, Washington, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: I went back and forth on whether to list Jenkins above, but in the end, his disappearing act in the second half of the season didn't do him any favors. Both Ferguson and Sutton have shown flashes when healthy, though both now have rather lengthy injury histories. Washington converted his body to play the position...then promptly missed the entire year. He may be done with the Bears.

The 3-4 only functions with strong DE play. The Bears must find an above-average (or better) starter this spring.

Inside Linebacker
Current Players: Shea McClellin, Christian Jones, Jonathan Anderson, John Timu, Lamin Barrow
2016 Players: Jones, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: Perhaps I should turn the dial up to 11 on this one.

The Bears need two new starters in the inside. It's that simple. One of them has to be a big-time playmaker who can stay on the field for three downs.

Outside Linebacker
Current Players: Pernell McPhee, Lamarr Houston, Sam Acho, Willie Young
2016 Players: McPhee, Houston, Young, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 6
Analysis: I have almost no feel for this group. McPhee was great when healthy (about half of the year), decent when hobbled, and out when out. The Bears need him healthy to be a centerpiece player.

Houston couldn't get on the field in the first half and seemed destined to be cut, but his strong second half has me rethinking that. He counts for $6.99M against the '16 cap if he is on the roster, but he still counts $2.97M against the cap even if he is cut. He's almost certainly worth another year at those dollar figures.

Young is just a good pass rusher. If he could be traded for a sixth-round pick, I suspect that he will be. Short of that, he's a nice reserve to keep around.

There is a need at this position, especially looking to 2017, but it isn't anywhere near the need that the Bears have elsewhere.

Cornerback
Current Players: Kyle Fuller, Alan Ball, Tracy Porter, Sherrick McManis, Terrance Mitchell, Bryce Callahan
2016 Players: Fuller, Callahan, McManis, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: Just like inside linebacker, the Bears need multiple cornerbacks capable of starting. McManis may not even be back, in which case the club will need multiple reserves as well.

Fuller has been up and down. Hopefully 2016 features more up.

Porter would like good coming back.

Safety
Current Players: Antrel Rolle, Adrian Amos, Ryan Mundy, Demontre Hurst, Harold Jones-Quartey
2016 Players: Amos, Rolle, Jones-Quartey, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 4
Analysis: Now that the Brock Vereen nightmare is over, the Bears can get serious about finding another safety.

Amos looks like a keeper, and Rolle could come back as, although his deal is non-guaranteed, his cap number takes a sizable drop in 2016. Jones-Quartey actually looked pretty good. Still, the Bears should add another potential long-term starter here. And replacing Rolle with a better veteran wouldn't get any objections from this writer.

MOST IMPORTANT TARGETS
The groupings above make this clear but in a bulkier fashion. Here it is much more simply. The Bears desperately need to find:

- a starting DE
- two starting ILBs
- a starting CB
- a starting OT/OG
- a starting-caliber TE

The Bears need more than just this, but failing to fulfill any of the above objectives would leave obvious and massive holes entering 2016.

FREE AGENCY
It would be delightful if the draft occurred prior to the free agency period, but since it doesn't work that way, I suspect that the Bears will target a couple of notable players in free agency and leave the rest of the heavy lifting to the crapshoot that is the draft.

There do appear to be two franchise tackle prospects in this draft class with Ole Miss's Laremy Tunsil almost certainly heading to Tennessee and Notre Dame's Ronnie Stanley looking at a top-eight selection, but given the team's desire to solidify the offensive line, the Bears can't really afford to wait until the draft to find out if either player slips or comes available in trade. Accordingly, I'd like to see the Bears pounce on one of the big names in free agency, Seattle left tackle Russell Okung, with a big deal that accounts for Okung's injury risk, inking Okung to a six-year, $65M deal with $31M guaranteed:

Signing Bonus: $12M
2016: $5M (guaranteed)
2017: $7M (guaranteed)
2018: $7M (guaranteed - or guarantees before 2017)
2019: $9M (non-guaranteed)
2020: $11M (non-guaranteed)
2021: $14M (non-guaranteed)

In addition to Okung, I think that the Bears will add at least two new defensive starters to the mix via free agency. The first one is a rather obvious fit, though the Bears will have to pay a loser's tax to get him, signing Broncos ILB Danny Trevathan to a four-year, $22M deal with $10M guaranteed:

Signing Bonus: $0
2016: $6M (guaranteed - base salary and mid-summer roster bonus in lieu of signing bonus)
2017: $4M (guaranteed)
2018: $5M (non-guaranteed)
2019: $6M (non-guaranteed)

This is the part of the exercise where I'd love to say that the Bears will splurge, making that franchise-altering move to sign injured DE Muhammad Wilkerson away from the Jets. If the Jets don't franchise Wilkerson, I'm certain that the Bears will have interest. But I just don't see it. The draft features a number of compelling 3-4 DE targets and the risk with Wilkerson will be significant unless he is willing to take a deal similar to the one that Henry Melton signed with the Cowboys, albeit with significantly greater compensation.

Instead, I'd like to see the Bears add a different impact defensive end, one who may not jump off the page in the way that Wilkerson does.

The Broncos are headed for a salary cap nightmare with Von Miller earning a massive deal and Brock Osweiler all of a sudden looking like a possible franchise quarterback. Unfortunately for Denver, if they allow Osweiler to walk, teams like the Jets and Texans may be ready to pounce. Denver cannot afford to lose its quarterback of the future (and quite possibly the present). Accordingly, in addition to losing Trevathan to John Fox's new team, the hope here is that the Bears make their big move by nabbing DE Malik Jackson from the Broncos to be this year's Pernell McPhee, a former part-time player who excels in a limited role before exploding in his new, full-time gig. Jackson wreaks havoc from the end spot in a way that no Bear did in 2015. There may yet again be a rather significant loser's tax to pay, but the Bears basically have to pay it as part of a five-year, $50M deal with $23M guaranteed:

Signing Bonus: $7M
2016: $5M (guaranteed)
2017: $7M (guaranteed)
2018: $8M ($4M guaranteed before 2017)
2019: $10M (non-guaranteed)
2020: $13M (non-guaranteed)

Finally, the club will close out free agency by inking Cardinals tight end Jermaine Gresham to a one-year, $3.5M deal and bringing back Porter for $3M on a one-year pact.

The five signings proposed above -- Okung, Trevathan, Jackson, Gresham, and Porter -- would feature cap hits totaling $25.9M, so it's entirely possible that the Bears (1) go after another big target, (2) put more of each player's projected 2017-18 money against the 2016 cap, or (3) decide to hold on to excess cap space in the event that a bargain somehow emerges later in the offseason.

Regardless, these five moves would go a long way toward shoring up some seriously problematic areas of the roster.

2016 DRAFT
I'm going to approach this section as if the above free agent moves took place while simultaneously noting the other players who would be relevant for the Bears at each draft spot as if free agent additions didn't fill the voids as listed above.

First Round (#11 overall)
Possibilities: DE A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama), ILB Myles Jack (UCLA), DE DeForest Buckner (Oregon), LB Jaylon Smith (Notre Dame), ILB Reggie Ragland (Alabama), CB Vernon Hargreaves (Florida), OT Jack Conklin (Michigan State)

Analysis: For these purposes, I'm assuming OT Laremy Tunsil, OT Ronnie Stanely, QB Jared Goff, WR Laquon Treadwell, and DE Joey Bosa are squarely off the board. Makes sense.

At that point, the Bears find themselves looking at seven prospects, though only five really jump out to me. Conklin would be a reach at this point while Ragland seems like the kind of good, not great addition that the Bears could be happy with were they picking 21st instead of 11th.

Hargreaves is an attractive option for a secondary looking for playmakers. At 5'11", 192 lbs., he has enough size to play on an island. While he can be a bit aggressive at times, he has exactly the type of ball skills and big-play explosiveness that should be attractive to any regime.

Smith likely wouldn't have been available were it not for a gruesome injury suffered in the Fiesta Bowl with the linebacker tearing both the ACL and LCL in his left knee. His teammates were clearly devastated and Ohio State's Ezekiel Elliott offered support and lingered while Smith was tended to by trainers. When healthy, he is a star linebacker with tremendous leadership skills. However, after wasting one of Kevin White's five control years, I imagine that GM Ryan Pace will shy away from Smith, at least in the first round.

Robinson is a force at defensive end, though his pass rushing leaves a little something to be desired. He'd be a strong choice nonetheless.

Buckner offers more pass rushing prowess and his addition would immediately beef up the defensive front, especially if paired with Malik Jackson as proposed here. At 6'7", 287 lbs., he's an NFL-ready 3-4 DE with plus rushing skills.

Despite the appeal of those final four, the pick here is an easy one for me: Myles Jack is the type of athlete and leader that the Bears defense has missed since Brian Urlacher's heyday. To be clear: Jack wouldn't be Urlacher. To be clear again: Jack's playmaking ability is off the charts and his coverage skills are immensely valuable in the current NFL, rendering him a true three-down force. His minor knee injury is of only minimal concern. I think that Jack will be the best defensive player in this draft class, so getting him at #11 would be a monumental leap forward for the rebuilding process.

The Pick: ILB Myles Jack (UCLA)

Second Round (#39 overall)
Possibilities: OLB Shilique Calhoun (Michigan State), CB Mackensie Alexander (Clemson), DE Austin Johnson (Penn State), TE O.J. Howard (Alabama), CB Eli Apple (Ohio State), S Jayron Kearse (Clemson)

Analysis: Johnson is the only member of this group who didn't participate in the College Football Playoff, so it may seem like there is some cherry picking in play here. That couldn't be further from the truth.

Starting with Johnson, he looks an awful lot like a poor man's A'Shawn Robinson to me. Stout against the run, below-average but competent rushing the passer.

Calhoun is more of the pure pass rusher coming off of the edge and he'd be a strong choice.

Howard may not make it this far. If he does, his athleticism and extensive blocking experience make him a player who could contribute from day one.

Alexander may have played his way into the first round by shutting down Notre Dame WR Will Fuller this year and playing well at the end of the season before leaving the Alabama game with an injury. Alexander looks like he will be spectacular in run support and he has a huge personality. I'd shy away from him given the size of his ego, but it most certainly works for him. He'd be a fine addition as a man-coverage corner.

Kearse has strong ball skills and appears to position himself well, though I don't love how stiff he seems to play at times.

For me, the pick is Apple. Apple excelled in his two years at Ohio State, and he will be just 21 as a rookie in 2016. He has the size (6'1", 200 lbs.) to thrive on an island. And like so many other top corners, Apple has a knack for positioning himself for interceptions. He would be a much-needed addition, even if I do wonder just a bit about his ultimate speed.

The Pick: CB Eli Apple (Ohio State)

Third Round (#72 overall)
Possibilities: QB Christian Hackenberg (Penn State), S Vonn Bell (Ohio State), S Jalen Mills (LSU), DE Anthony Zettel (Penn State), OT Tyler Johnstone (Oregon), ILB Tyler Matakevich (Temple)

Analysis: Hackenberg would be the high-risk quarterback play that I definitely don't expect to see. I hope he ends up in Houston, for all parties involved.

Bell could certainly grow into a starting job, though he seems a bit raw to me.

Zettel would be a solid citizen on the end, though I don't see much impact there.

Johnstone could be a tackle prospect given his skills, but he has been unable to kick up his weight to a level that would enable him to stick outside. Nevertheless, he'd make a nice guard and backup tackle despite coming with injury concerns.

Matakevich may not be the most physically impressive linebacker out there, but as a two-down linebacker, he'd bring the best motor on the squad.

None of this really matters, though: I love Mills and would be ecstatic to see him here. I can't exactly put my finger on why I love watching him so much. Mills is a little stiff and he lacks elite speed. Yet I see shades of Peanut Tillman in his style of play, and he comes with the added benefit of being a four-year starter who has played every position in the defensive backfield. For a unit in search of playmakers, Mills is an ideal fit.

The Pick: S Jalen Mills (LSU)

Fourth Round (#108 overall (approx.))
Possibilities: ILB Scooby Wright III (Arizona), CB Cyrus Jones (Alabama), ILB Eric Striker (Oklahoma), OT Denver Kirkland (Arkansas)

Analysis: Wright is all about violence. He plays with a tenacity that could be the heart-and-soul of a defense, even if I suspect him to be much more of a factor against the run.

Jones likely won't last quite this far, but if he is here, he will be an awfully tempting addition. Quite simply, the Bears have had no semblance of a return game until Deonte Thompson breathed some life into the kick return unit late in the season. Jones offers dynamism as a returner of both kickoffs and punts in addition to having grown into a strong defensive back.

Striker has no home in the NFL as a 6'0", 220 lbs. linebacker. He's much to small to rush around the edge at that size, yet his only collegiate experience is as an edge rusher. I could see this regime drafting him and deploying him as a situational pass rush specialist, rushing from numerous locations without playing a standard position. There's definitely plenty of athleticism to work with should the team attempt to make Striker into an every down ILB.

Kirkland comes with plentiful appeal as a massive 6'5", 343 lbs. guard prospect who comes with LT experience in college and the possibility of manning RT in the future.

In the end, it comes down to Wright and Jones for me. I'll take Jones with his punt return skills pushing him over the top.

The Pick: CB Cyrus Jones (Alabama)

Fifth Round (#147 overall (approx.))
Possibilities: TE Bryce Williams (East Carolina), OLB Yannick Ngakoue (Maryland), RB Kelvin Taylor (Florida)

Analysis: Williams looks advanced as a receiver on film, finding open space and flashing consistent hands. He does not appear tremendously athletic, though he wouldn't be a liability in that department either.

Ngakoue is extremely difficult to evaluate as he has great tape against the likes of Brandon Scherff and Jack Conklin whereas he is conspicuously absent in other games. It does appear as though his 2015 sack numbers were inflated by some coverage sacks. Still, there's a skillset to work with in Ngakoue.

Taylor resembles his dad, Fred Taylor, though without the same burst. I'd prefer to see the Bears find Langford's complement without using a pick, but it's not my choice to make.

The Pick: TE Bryce Williams (East Carolina)

Sixth Round (#184 overall (approx.))
Possibilities: OT Alex Lewis (Nebraska), OT Adam Bisnowaty (Pittsburgh)

Analysis: Lewis was a captain at Nebraska and has ideal size for a guard, though he would have the added benefit of a decent amount of tackle experience. He was arrested and served a short jail sentence for getting in a 2014 fight with an Air Force Academy cadet, so there is a red flag.

Bisnowaty comes without Lewis's run blocking prowess, but he looks to be a slightly better pass blocker with more of a chance to stick at tackle.

The Pick: OT Adam Bisnowaty (Pittsburgh)

Sixth Round (#207 overall (approx.))
Possibilities: NT Antwaun Woods (USC), ILB James Burgess (Louisville)

Analysis: Woods would be the needed backup for Goldman, a massive run plugger with enough quick-twitch skills to grow into a bit of pass rushing if it all came together.

Burgess is a really attractive option to me. He runs extremely well, and while he may need to add additional size to be a factor against the run in the NFL, his speed and especially his quickness should enable him to contribute on special teams while he works to grow into a defensive role.

The Pick: NT Antwaun Woods (USC)

Sixth Round (#208 overall (approx.))
Possibilities: See above.

Analysis: See above.

The Pick: ILB James Burgess (Louisville)

Seventh Round (#226 overall (approx.))
Possibilities: K Ka'imi Fairbairn (UCLA)

Analysis: Sadly, the end is nigh for Robbie Gould, one of my favorite Bears ever. He was, far and away, the worst kicker in the NFL in 2015 largely due to the fact that he can't get his kickoffs into the endzone despite kickoffs now being from the 35 yard line. A few missed field goals may have sealed his ticket out of town.

Fairbairn is the best collegiate kicker. He is extremely accurate and just as importantly, he has a superb touchback percentage. He would be a great addition.

The Pick: K Ka'imi Fairbairn (UCLA)

The complete draft class as listed above would be as follows:

1.011: ILB Myles Jack (UCLA)
2.039: CB Eli Apple (Ohio State)
3.072: S    Jalen Mills (LSU)
4.108: CB Cyrus Jones (Alabama)
5.147: TE Bryce Williams (East Carolina)
6.184: OT Adam Bisnowaty (Pittsburgh)
6.207: NT Antwaun Woods (USC)
6.208: ILB James Burgess (Louisville)
7.226: K   Ka'imi Fairbairn (UCLA)

FINAL ROSTER
With all of that wheeling and dealing, the Bears would find themselves with the following approximate 53-man roster:

SP (3): Ka'imi Fairbairn, Pat O'Donnell, Patrick Scales
QB (2): Jay Cutler, David Fales
C   (1): Hroniss Grasu
OG (3): Matt Slauson, Tayo Fabuluje, UNKNOWN
OT (4): Russell Okung, Kyle Long, Charles Leno, Jr., Adam Bisnowaty
RB (4): Jeremy Langford, Ka'Deem Carey, Senorise Perry, UNKNOWN
WR (6): Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White, Eddie Royal, Marquess Wilson, Deonte Thompson, UNKNOWN
TE (4): Zach Miller, Jermaine Gresham, Khari Lee, Bryce Williams
NT (2): Eddie Goldman, Antwaun Woods
DE (5): Malik Jackson, Ego Ferguson, Will Sutton, Cornelius Washington, UNKNOWN
ILB (4): Myles Jack, Danny Trevathan, Christian Jones, James Burgess
OLB (5): Pernell McPhee, Lamarr Houston, Willie Young, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
CB (6): Kyle Fuller, Tracy Porter, Bryce Callahan, Eli Apple, Cyrus Jones, Sherrick McManis
S    (4): Adrian Amos, Jalen Mills, Antrel Rolle, Harold Jones-Quartey

In my eyes, that's a massive upgrade, although it certainly doesn't come without risk, particularly at QB, RB, and OLB. That defense, on the whole, would be expected to present a massive upgrade in terms of raw talent over the 2015 group. The front seven would receive a much-needed boost of both youth and experience while the defensive backfield is filled in largely with prospects.

I'd love to see this roster, recognizing full well that it won't happen. Here's to the offseason.

Predicting the Contracts and Landing Spots for Major League Baseball Free Agents

These articles are fun. They're based primarily on analysis of player fit and team budgets, but in the end, it tends to come down to hunches. That's just fun.

So here we go. Here are my guesstimates for the top free agent landing spots, ranked in order of how good I think the players are and nothing else. The first dollar figure is only for guaranteed years; that is, any option buyout is not included in that figure.

1. SP David Price
Signing Team: Chicago Cubs
Contract Terms: 8 years, $216M
Notes: For quite some time, I have assumed that Price would land a 7-year deal worth either $182M or $189M. Max Scherzer effectively got a 7-year deal worth $170.4M last year, so that would be a big, market-setting jump for Price.

But now I think that I'm low, not necessarily on the AAV but on the total commitment. This deal lets Price secure the largest guarantee ever and it basically gives the Cubs a free year in the process. They could even structure the deal to give Price $210M over the first seven years of the deal with an extremely cheap eighth year tacked on.

It'll be a real fight between the Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Yankees, but in the end, I think Price rejoins Joe Maddon in pursuit of a ring.

2. SP Zack Greinke
Signing Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
Contract Terms: 6 years, $168M plus mutual option for $30M ($7M buyout)
Notes: Greinke used his opt-out to create leverage, but it's darn-near impossible to envision the Dodgers letting him escape, especially not up the coast to San Francisco.

3. RF Jason Heyward
Signing Team: New York Yankees
Contract Terms: 10 years, $200M (with opt-out after year 5)
Notes: My least favorite contract of the offseason exclusively because of the opt out. I love Heyward and I'd love to see him join the Cubs. A 10-year, $200M deal would even be palatable. But not with the opt out. The opt out kills the deal, placing all of the risk on the signing club. Still, he makes sense for the Yankees with Carlos Beltran in his final year and Brett Gardner on the trade block. While the Yankees would prefer to spend next year to this year, this year's free agent class is overwhelmingly superior to next year's, so they'll have to pay a little extra tax in 2016 to get their man.

4. LF Alex Gordon
Signing Team: Kansas City Royals
Contract Terms: 5 years, $85M plus club option for $20M ($5M buyout)
Notes: In the end, Gordon gets a big guarantee but still gives the Royals a substantial discount in the range of 15-20%. It's still a good deal for him and the club.

5. SP Jordan Zimmermann
Signing Team: San Francisco Giants
Contract Terms: 6 years, $126M
Notes: The Giants have an incredible amount of money coming off of the books this year and next, so they use some of that cash to replenish their rotation. Zimmermann should add some surprisingly-needed stability to their rotation.

6. SP Johnny Cueto
Signing Team: Boston Red Sox
Contract Terms: 6 years, $140M
Notes: Cueto had a strange year, simultaneously solidifying his status as an ace and struggling mightily in Kansas City in a way that challenges his market. In the end, I think that he'll do just fine.

7. LF Yoenis Cespedes
Signing Team: San Francisco Giants
Contract Terms: 7 years, $150M
Notes: Remember that thing I said above about the Giants and all of their payroll space? Here goes the rest of it. Their lineup is deep and strong, but they don't have a monster power bat. Cespedes is a marvelous fit with Posey, Crawford, Belt, and Duffy. And perhaps a healthy Hunter Pence, too.

8. 1B Chris Davis
Signing Team: Baltimore Orioles
Contract Terms: 6 years, $135M
Notes: Davis is the premier power bat on the market, but his other limitations will keep him from pushing this contract higher. The Orioles have tons of free agents, but they also have a nice pile of cash with which to replenish their roster. Keeping Davis just makes sense.

9. SP Jeff Samardzija
Signing Team: Anaheim Angels
Contract Terms: 5 years, $90M
Notes: The Angels are a sneaky crappy team with Mike Trout propping them up for years. They desperately need to fill out their roster, and it's about time for Arte Moreno to throw piles of cash at his problems again. So here's a risky, high-upside pitcher.

10. LF Justin Upton
Signing Team: Chicago White Sox
Contract Terms: 7 years, $119M
Notes: I originally had Upton slated to the Cardinals, but the White Sox are desperate for offense and he's the best bat left.

11. 2B/LF Ben Zobrist
Signing Team: St. Louis Cardinals
Contract Terms: 4 years, $55M
Notes: Zobrist is perfect for the Cardinals, and this way they get to take a chance that he ages better than we might expect without sacrificing a boatload of cash to find out. I'm sure that they'll adore his flexibility.

12. SS Ian Desmond
Signing Team: San Diego Padres
Contract Terms: 6 years, $100M
Notes: The Padres desperately need to address their middle infield and taking a shot that Desmond's first half was a fluke is probably their best option. There's plenty of risk, but the reward is massive.

13. SP Yovani Gallardo
Signing Team: Baltimore Orioles
Contract Terms: 5 years, $80M
Notes: Gallardo is no ace, but he is extremely durable and extremely consistently good. That's going to get him paid.

14. CF Dexter Fowler
Signing Team: Texas Rangers
Contract Terms: 5 years, $70M
Notes: Cleveland is a bit of a dark horse here, but in the end, I think that the Rangers decide that they're ready to try having some offense in centerfield.

15. SP Wei-Yin Chen
Signing Team: Seattle Mariners
Contract Terms: 5 years, $65M
Notes: Chen has been very consistent in his time in the Majors. Given that the Mariners need a starter (or two) and consistently find themselves with Japanese pitchers on the roster, this union makes sense.

16. SP Scott Kazmir
Signing Team: Anaheim Angels
Contract Terms: 4 years, $55M
Notes: Kazmir is normally very good, but his second half with Houston was very poor in 2015. That hurts his earning power a bit. Joining the Angels' staff is a good fit for him.

17. SP John Lackey
Signing Team: Detroit Tigers
Contract Terms: 3 years, $42M
Notes: The Tigers need some starters. The steady Lackey would be a nice addition to their staff, particularly as some useful young arms bring their volatility to the staff.

18. SP Mike Leake
Signing Team: Toronto Blue Jays
Contract Terms: 6 years, $105M
Notes: Leake gets the Homer Bailey contract even though he's not as good. The Jays desperately need an arm, and if they strike out on the bigger names above, Leake is a decent enough fit.

19. 2B Howie Kendrick
Signing Team: Chicago White Sox
Contract Terms: 5 years, $70M
Notes: Kendrick would be a great solution to the second base position that has been an ongoing disaster for the ChiSox. He just hits.

20. OF Colby Rasmus
Signing Team: Cleveland Indians
Contract Terms: 4 years, $50M
Notes: Rasmus makes tons of sense for the Indians as they could use help in either center or right, and they even need help in left given the recent news of Michael Brantley's injury.

21. 2B Daniel Murphy
Signing Team: Anaheim Angels
Contract Terms: 5 years, $60M
Notes: Murphy is a solid, unspectacular guy. Given the Angels' recent production at the keystone, he would be a welcome addition.

22. C Matt Wieters
Signing Team: Atlanta Braves
Contract Terms: 5 years, $75M
Notes: This is an extremely risky contract, but it does make a good bit of sense. The Braves are clearing payroll space in anticipation of their move to a new stadium in 2017, but adding Wieters gives them a centerpiece, homegrown talent to sell to their fans. It also addresses a shaky catching spot. Wieters would likely command a lot more than this if he was healthy, but health issues have plagued him as of late. He's a tough free agent to peg.

23. SP Hisashi Iwakuma
Signing Team: Seattle Mariners
Contract Terms: 3 years, $40M
Notes: It's just tough to see him leaving.

24. RP Darren O'Day
Signing Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
Contract Terms: 4 years, $30M
Notes: The Dodgers have boatloads of money and they sure seem like a good bet to spend some more of it. O'Day is a nice piece.

25. RP Tyler Clippard
Signing Team: Boston Red Sox
Contract Terms: 3 years, $21M
Notes: The Red Sox really need to find a strong arm or two for the back of their bullpen. Clippard doesn't overpower hitters, but his superb changeup has rendered him an extremely formidable reliever.

26. SP J.A. Happ
Signing Team: Pittsburgh Pirates
Contract Terms: 3 years, $33M
Notes: Happ had the best run of his career in Pittsburgh this summer and the Bucs need to add at least one starter. It makes a lot of sense.

27. 3B David Freese
Signing Team: Milwaukee Brewers
Contract Terms: 3 years, $36M
Notes: Outside of a disastrous 2013 with the Cardinals, Freese has been consistently productive, basically an average third baseman, throughout his time in the Majors. Unfortunately for him, he didn't grab an everyday job until he was 28, so he's entering his age-33 season. He should get a nice deal and the Brewers have a gaping hole at third base. Just don't expect him to finish this deal in Milwaukee.

28. SP Marco Estrada
Signing Team: Toronto Blue Jays
Contract Terms: 4 years, $60M
Notes: Estrada was a scrap heap acquisition by the Blue Jays, but after his strong 2015, he's going to command a pretty penny. He's always struggled with home runs and his strikeouts have dissipated. This is the leading contender for worst contract of the offseason.

29. SS Asdrubal Cabrera
Signing Team: Oakland Athletics
Contract Terms: 1 year, $8M
Notes: The A's need to add another potential starter to their infield mix and Cabrera makes enough sense. He's not moving the needle much, however.

30. RP Joakim Soria
Signing Team: Detroit Tigers
Contract Terms: 3 years, $20M
Notes: The Tigers badly need Soria's relief production back. I've gotta think that they'll get him.

31. CF Denard Span
Signing Team: Seattle Mariners
Contract Terms: 3 years, $30M
Notes: The Mainers had a gaping hole in center field, so I think they'll take the plunge on Span's balky body.

32. SP Brett Anderson
Signing Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
Contract Terms: 4 years, $60M
Notes: The D-Backs have oodles of cash to spend and a continuing need in the rotation. They'll spend it here.

33. SP Ian Kennedy
Signing Team: San Diego Padres
Contract Terms: 1 year, $15.8M
Notes: If there's any sanity in the world, Kennedy is accepting his qualifying offer and trying to reenter the market next year poised to make double what he'd make this year.

34. OF Gerardo Parra
Signing Team: Colorado Rockies
Contract Terms: 4 years, $44M
Notes: The Rockies need to add a complementary piece or two this winter to make it look like they're doing something. Enter Parra.

35. OF Nori Aoki
Signing Team: Tampa Bay Rays
Contract Terms: 2 years, $12M
Notes: The Rays have to be alarmed by Steven Souza's strikeout woes. Aoki's defense-first profile is a great fit for their club as he is likely to provide good value on this meager deal.

36. C Chris Iannetta
Signing Team: Miami Marlins
Contract Terms: 1 year, $7M
Notes: The Marlins make it look like they're kinda, sorta doing something.

37. CF Chris Young
Signing Team: Washington Nationals
Contract Terms: 2 years, $15M
Notes: The Nats need to add something to the mix, so taking a shot on Young's remaining upside is as good of an idea as any at this point.

38. SP Chris Young
Signing Team: Kansas City Royals
Contract Terms: 1 year, $5M plus $7M club option with $1M buyout
Notes: Young has pitched his way into a guaranteed deal and he might leave a tiny bit of cash on the table to keep the band together in Kansas City.

39. OF Rajai Davis
Signing Team: Houston Astros
Contract Terms: 2 years, $10M
Notes: This is a great deal for Davis in his mid-30s. The Astros need to add this security blanket to their extremely young, volatile outfield mix.

40. SP Bartolo Colon
Signing Team: Houston Astros
Contract Terms: 1 year, $6M
Notes: Speaking of adding veteran security blankets...

41. SS Jimmy Rollins
Signing Team: New York Yankees
Contract Terms: 1 year, $5M
Notes: The Yankees likely want to add some insurance to Didi Gregorious and Rollins has the glove and cost that makes sense...if he's willing to accept a reduced role.

42. CF Austin Jackson
Signing Team: Cleveland Indians
Contract Terms: 1 year, $5M
Notes: I don't understand why so many writers think Jackson is getting a multi-year deal worth $10M+ per year. Yes, he's a strong defender in center field. But he hasn't hit for a year and a half. Non-hitting outfielders rarely get paid. He's a good fit in Cleveland.

43. SP Doug Fister
Signing Team: Pittsburgh Pirates
Contract Terms: 1 year, $8M
Notes: Fister's velocity evaporated and he may very well be done. On the off chance that he isn't, heading to spacious PNC Park would be a great way to resurrect his career and hit the market again next winter.

44. SS Alexei Ramirez
Signing Team: Philadelphia Phillies
Contract Terms: 1 year, $5M
Notes: The perfect rebound-and-flip candidate. And the Phillies can give him full-time plate appearances.

45. OF Steve Pearce
Signing Team: Colorado Rockies
Contract Terms: 1 year, $7M
Notes: Look, I'm not saying that Pearce has to go to the Rockies. I am saying that a bat-first player needing to rebuild value coming off of a miserable campaign should definitely call Coors home, even if he has to play first base.

46. SP Tim Lincecum
Signing Team: San Diego Padres
Contract Terms: 1 year, $3M (with boatloads of incentives)
Notes: Lincecum has struggled mightily for years now. Heading to PETCO to join a team in need of a cheap lottery ticket makes plenty of sense.

47. OF Alex Rios
Signing Team: Minnesota Twins
Contract Terms: 1 year, $5M
Notes: The Twins spent most of their cash on Byung-Ho Park (assuming that they agree to a deal with him), so Rios on a one-year deal is a fine addition. He buys them a few months while Byron Buxton continues to percolate, at which time Rios can be kicked to the bench or, if he produces, flipped for a helpful part.

48. OF David Murphy
Signing Team: Detroit Tigers
Contract Terms: 1 year, $4M
Notes: Murphy needs to find some plate appearances and the Tigers need to find some cheap options.

49. RP Ryan Madson
Signing Team: Chicago White Sox
Contract Terms: 3 years, $15M
Notes: The White Sox love paying for relievers and they need to find some this winter. Enter Madson, the formerly-great rehabilitation project from Kansas City.

50. 1B Mike Napoli
Signing Team: Pittsburgh Pirates
Contract Terms: 1 year, $7M
Notes: Assuming that the Pirates non-tender Pedro Alvarez, they'll need a bat to throw at first base. Napoli would fit the bill assuming he isn't completely washed up.

*** SP Kenta Maeda
Signing Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
Contract Terms: 6 years, $95M (plus $20M posting fee)
Notes: Though Maeda isn't technically a free agent, he is widely expected to be posted. In that event, the Diamondbacks have been connected to him for so long that it's truly difficult to imagine them not signing Maeda at this point.

There we have it. Some completely worthless guesses. But they were fun to make.

Incredibly, only two teams ended up without a top-50 free agent: the Reds (duh) and the Mets (huh?). It should be a fun winter!