Updated Bears Thoughts Following Round One of the 2020 NFL Draft

The first round of the draft was like none that I can remember, and not just because Roger Goodell announced all of the picks from his basement. There simply weren't any surprises for a long, long time last night with the first real surprise coming when the Raiders selected Henry Ruggs III at #12 with teammate Jerry Jeudy still on the board.

Neither of those picks impacted the Bears, but plenty of later picks did. I was flabbergasted to see Damon Arnette go at #19 with the Khalil Mack pick. I was confused by the trades involving the 25th and 26th picks that landed Brandon Aiyuk in San Francisco and Jordan Love in Green Bay, respectively. Aiyuk looked like "just a guy" in my draft review. And whereas Aaron Rodgers was a possible #1 overall pick who inexplicably fell into the 20s, Love was a late-first round pick who got drafted late in the first round. He'll probably end up in the Hall of Fame anyway, but the Packers landing him wasn't a nightmare in the same mold as the Rodgers gift.

Perhaps just as surprising as some of the picks mentioned above are some of the prospects who stayed on the board entering the second round tonight. There's some genuinely good news for the Bears involving some of those names, which I'll address below. But first, a comment: the release of Trey Burton and the attempted trade of Adam Shaheen renders it increasingly likely that Ryan Pace will take a tight end in the second round tonight. I cannot state this clearly enough: doing so would be painful. Pace has already allocated an incredible amount of resources to the position between the cap space spent on Burton and Jimmy Graham and the draft capital spent on Shaheen. The results haven't been pretty, but Pace can't afford to completely neglect other position groups in favor of another tight end when he has a couple of plausible starting options already on the roster.

So, to restate the obvious: the Bears are already completely screwed in 2021/2022. While 2020 is likely to be a middling year as well, there's a sliver of hope that the team could contend for a playoff spot. With that in mind, it is unacceptable to allocate early draft resources to a quarterback, running back, tight end, nose tackle, or inside linebacker. There are too many quality players at other positions of desperate need. Besides, if Pace drafts a quarterback, he's drafting said QB for another coach/GM combination to develop. That never works.

With the above out of the way, here is a restatement of possible outcomes for tonight with drafted players struck through and a quartet of unexpectedly available players folded in with italics:

1. Trade down. A few times. Pace is one-for-two trading back in the second round, ending up with OG Cody Whitehair the first time and TE Adam Shaheen the second time. In both events, trading down yielded valuable picks that turned into important contributors: ILB Nick Kwiatkoski, S Deon Bush, and, following another minor deal, S Eddie Jackson. Pace desperately needs to do that again.
2. Get a couple of day-one starters by standing pat at #43 and #50. This player cannot be a running back, inside linebacker, defensive lineman, or tight end due to extreme needs elsewhere (I know that the preceding sentence is dumb). I didn't review the top-20 or so players in the class, so they won't appear here. Obviously if somebody undergoes an insane draft slide like OT Mekhi Becton or QB Tua Tagovailoa, the Bears should pounce. But since there's a 0.00000000001% chance of players like that reaching the middle of round two, they're not addressed here. Players I like in this range: 
1. OT Robert Hunt (Louisiana-Lafayette). What can I say? I'm a sucker for Ragin' Cajuns in round two (hat tip to Peanut). Hunt is my ideal prospect for the offensive line, a true tackle prospect who can start day one at guard. Hunt is seriously athletic, overpowering interior defensive linemen and shutting down edge rushers. It's tough to evaluate the quality of his competition, but the starter kit is there for a long-time starter. (After I compiled the 43 names on this list, I saw an NFL.com mock draft that mocked Hunt to the Bears...at #196 overall!)
2. OLB Darrell Taylor (Tennessee). Wow. Taylor is remarkably explosive with the best get-off of an OLB I saw. At 6'4", 267 lbs., he has the size to play from day one. His body control and flexibility looked more like a slot receiver than an edge rusher. I couldn't believe how low to the ground he got on multiple rushes without losing his speed. If the Bears didn't have a horrible hole on the offensive line, Taylor would be my #1 player on this list.
3. CB A.J. Terrell (Clemson). Nearly my ideal get for the Bears. Terrell is lengthy (6'1") with great speed and agility. He has smooth moves. He lacks girth at 195 lbs., and at some point, Clemson DBs are going to run into issues having played against terrible competition all year. For Terrell, that meant getting toasted by Ja'Marr Chase in the National Championship Game. Nevertheless, I'd roll the dice with Terrell.
4. WR Denzel Mims (Baylor). 6'3", 207 lbs. with elite speed. His body control reminds me of Alshon's. He's hands aren't as sure, but he's much more athletic. He'd be a steal in the middle of round two in part because he's an idyllic red zone target who can both fight through coverage and get open in tight spaces. I don't understand why he isn't a top-20 prospect.
5. C/G Lloyd Cushenberry (LSU). Cushenberry checks every box. He played center for LSU, so he has carried a significant burden against elite competition and held up. He has extremely long arms, moves well, and is plenty powerful to hold up in the NFL. His film against Alabama was really impressive.
6. CB Jaylon Johnson (Utah). I'm not sure that Johnson has any elite skills, but I think he's genuinely good at everything. Good closing speed. Good but not elite size (6'0", 197 lbs.). Good hip turns. If there's one thing that appears elite, it's his football instincts. He looks like a perfect plug-and-play candidate.
7. WR KJ Hamler (Penn State). There are a lot of reasons to be wary of Hamler detailed above. But there's one reason to love the guy and it's insanely important in the modern league governed by passing attacks and illegal contact penalties: speed. And Hamler has it in spades.
8. OT Isaiah Wilson (Georgia). Wilson is absolutely enormous at 6'6", 350 lbs., but he can move well enough. He fits the bill as a big body to plug into the interior while developing his footwork for the outside.
9. WR Justin Jefferson (LSU). I'm a huge fan of his. He's got the speed to play inside or out with experience playing the slot. At 6'1", 200 lbs., he's got great size in the slot. He's more a strider than a quick-twitch option, but if he's available in the middle of round two, he has to merit serious consideration.
10. S Kyle Dugger (Lenoir-Rhyne). Dugger is big (6'1", 217 lbs), fast, and strong. He's an ideal mate for Eddie Jackson at safety. But he played at Lenoir-Rhyne. It's hard to be confident about him as a day one starter, but if he is, he might be a star.
11. S Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois). Chinn is huge, fast, and strong, running a 4.45 40 at 6'3", 221 lbs. Like Dugger before him, he's the right kind of safety to pair with Eddie Jackson. The big concern: what's his learning curve having played in the Missouri Valley Conference? That's for the scouts to determine. If he's adept enough to play right away, he'd be higher on this list. If he'll need a year or two to adjust, he'd be down in the next grouping despite the physical traits.
12. CB Jeff Gladney (TCU). Gladney's film reminds me of watching Kyle Fuller at Virginia Tech. Gladney is less fluid than Fuller was, but he's very athletic and runs well with all types of receivers. He's likely to be available in the second round due to poor size (only 5'10"), but he should be a plug-and-play draftee.
13. OT Josh Jones (Houston). Jones is an awful lot like Wanogho in terms of being a real left tackle prospect that needs some seasoning, but he sneaks in ahead of Wanogho because Jones appears to be ready to contribute as an interior lineman in 2020. He'd be a great get and I'm surprised that he's available. I think he looks a lot better as a run blocker right now, but he should be passable as a pass protector in year one.
14. OT Prince Tega Wanogho (Auburn). I like Wanogho as a left tackle prospect much more than Wilson, but Wanogho may not have a home on the interior in the NFL, making him slightly less attractive to the 2020 Bears. He's tremendously athletic, and his background as a swimmer and basketball player makes me even more confident that he'll have the unique fluidity required for elite production in the NFL. But I don't think the inside will work.
15. OLB Julian Okwara (Notre Dame). At 6'4", 252 lbs., with really long arms, and elite quickness, Okwara is an ideal complement to Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn. Okwara brings the coverage skills that Leonard Floyd took with him to Los Angeles while also possessing the kind of pass-rush burst that is required for an OLB. I really like him.
16. OLB Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State). OLB isn't a need in the same way as certain other positions, but the 3-4 defense only works with consistent edge pressure so it's always high on the list. Gross-Matos looks like a perfect 4-3 DE, but he should be a strong fit as a 3-4 OLB and he'd offer some versatility as a possible hand-in-the-dirt rusher on obvious pass rushing situations with Khalil Mack or Robert Quinn further outside.
17. WR Michael Pittman Jr. (USC). Normally I'm leery of late-bloomers like Pittman, but when said late-bloomer is 6'5" with solid speed, good hands, and the ability to high-point the ball with hits mitts, I'll make an exception. He'd be a nice long-term complement to Allen Robinson on the outside. It's also likely that Kedon Slovis didn't run the most complicated offense at USC, so a more experienced QB could help Pittman emerge quickly at the next level.
18. G/C Cesar Ruiz (Michigan). I definitely didn't want to put Ruiz in this group, but he left me no choice. He's athletic with interior offensive line flexibility, and he's a multi-year starter against elite competition. Ruiz also fared well against the likes of Ohio State and Notre Dame. He'd be expected to start the opener. He checks all of the boxes.
19. G/C Jonah Jackson (Ohio State). It's weird to see Rutgers in this zone, even via a transfer. But Jackson earned his way here. His pass blocking is impressive, and at 6'3", 306 lbs., he should be able to hold up from day one. He's never going to be a mauler in the run game, but Jackson was superb against Clemson. That says something and suggests that his skills are translatable to the NFL.
20. S Xavier McKinney (Alabama). I expected to like McKinney a lot more than I did given my expectation that he'd go in round one. He was a bit underwhelming on film. Nevertheless, he's definitely a day one plug-and-play starter, and the comfort level with Eddie Jackson should be there. He'd be an excellent complement as I was most impressed by his blitzing and run support while questioning his top-end speed. Jackson would help mask that limitation.
21. WR Tee Higgins (Clemson). Higgins is a dream player in a different offense, one that is more interested in an explicitly vertical attack. Unfortunately, that's not a great fit for the Bears who want quickness and separation. I would've loved to see whether Higgins could separate from Jeff Okudah, but Higgins so obviously suffered an early concussion in the national semifinal that it's hard to meaningfully evaluate his production against Ohio State or LSU.
22. OLB Terrell Lewis (Alabama). Lewis is the last player in this section. I really liked his film. He already has an ideal 3-4 OLB build at 6'5", 262 lbs., and he showed the ability to overpower and get around SEC offensive tackles with a seriously impressive burst. However, he comes with serious risk given a number of significant injuries in college. In this case, I think that the risk would be worth it.
3. Stay at #43 and #50, and draft players that are OK but underwhelming, or that I like but without positional value. Players that are OK for the 2020 Bears but don't knock my socks off:
1. DE Ross Blacklock (TCU). Blacklock was a lock for this spot. I love his film. He's incredibly explosive in an ideal 6'3", 290 lbs. frame. So why doesn't he get into the first group? Defensive end isn't a need in the same way as other positions are, and given that Pace will be drafting for his job, he'll need some 2020 starters from this draft. With Hicks, Robertson-Harris, and Nichols on board, DE just doesn't offer enough value to the 2020 team.
2. S Grant Delpit (LSU). Delpit looks like a solid bet to be a solid starter, and comes with very good size (6'2", 213 lbs.) and coverage skills. So why is he in this lower grouping? The Bears need a safety next to Eddie Jackson who can offer quality run support, and Delpit doesn't appear to be that guy. He's an adept blitzer and strong in coverage, but he's unlikely to be that extra body in the box.
3. CB Trevon Diggs (Alabama). Diggs has excellent size (6'1", 205 lbs.) and a rangy build. Unfortunately, he comes complete with an injury history that creates some risk. He also looks a bit more rigid than some of the other corners on this list and appears to lack elite speed.
4. OT Lucas Niang (TCU). Niang has a true tackle future and I like his athleticism with his big size, but I'm worried about a torn labrum in his hip. The Bears need a day one starter on the offensive line, and Niang's recent injury may prevent him from being that guy. If he's healthy, he'd be at the top of this section. I'd expect him to be available at the end of the second round, so he could be the guy with a trade down.
5. CB Damon Arnette (Ohio State). It's really tough to put an Ohio State defensive back in this group given the Bears' needs and the Buckeyes' history of producing elite DBs, but Arnette's fluidity was much less impressive than I expected. I have no doubt that he'll be useful in run support, but he's not fast enough to play great man coverage. Because the Bears spend so much time in zone, he should be able to mask that deficiency, but there's risk here.
6. CB Kristian Fulton (LSU). I really wanted to like Fulton more, but he looked like a mid-round gamer on film instead of an upper echelon difference maker. He's got the size to be a starter and I like his feel for routes and the game, but his speed on film doesn't match his really impressive Combine 40 (4.46). I wouldn't be upset with Fulton, but I'm not clamoring for him either.
7. DE Marlon Davidson (Auburn). Davidson's body and style of play don't line up at all. He's 6'3", 303 lbs., but he's a true powerful force off of the edge. I'd love to have him as a new age 4-3 DE, but that doesn't fit the Bears. I don't think he's a true edge setter as a 3-4 DE, but it sure would be fun to find out.
8. WR Jalen Reagor (TCU). He's plenty fast and has nice agility in tight spaces. His hands also look nice. On the whole, however, he looks a lot like Anthony Miller with good but not elite speed and lacking elite size. Reagor's agility could be the difference maker.
9. DE Justin Madubuike (Texas A&M). Madubuike isn't as unique as Davidson before him, but he does look like a solid 3-4 DE with some pass rushing upside. I liked his film rushing from the interior of the defensive line. How well that translates to the edge is an open question.
10. OT Austin Jackson (USC). He looks seriously athletic and projects as a true NFL tackle. But I'm underwhelmed by what I've seen and see a player who needs a year or two of development. That's not a plug-and-play lineman.
11. CB Noah Igbinoghene (Auburn). He doesn't have much size (5'10", 198 lbs.) and I'm underwhelmed by his ball skills. Even in his highlights, he struggled to timely turn his head. However, he's got speed to burn, he's a very willing run defender, and would bring value in the return game if his value at CB didn't force him out of that role. He'd be an OK pick.
12. WR Gabriel Davis (UCF). AAC cornerbacks couldn't handle Davis, which sadly makes evaluating him tough. He's got good-but-not-great speed and I do like his hands catching balls in traffic. Ultimately his agility or lack thereof gets him dropped into this group because I question his YAC ability.
4. Stay at #43 and #50, but draft players I don't like, either because of their skill sets or their fits with the Bears. Players I don't like for the 2020 Bears:
1. WR Chase Claypool (Notre Dame). Claypool is such an intriguing talent. I just don't think he's the right intriguing talent for the Bears offense. He's enormous, but he doesn't have the agility or the burst of the receivers that find themselves higher on this list despite his excellent 40 at the Combine.
2. OLB Zack Baun (Wisconsin). Like Claypool above him, I think Baun is going to have a very successful NFL career. In fact, I think he's an excellent prospect...but he's definitely not a fit in the 3-4. He'd be homeless in that defense. He's a 4-3 OLB that is going to make some team extremely happy. His ranginess and coverage skills are seriously impressive, as is his speed rush. Employed occasionally, his rushing should be effective. Employed as his primary role as it would be in a 3-4, he'd get engulfed by the arms of NFL offensive tackles. PFF alarmingly indicated that Baun didn't generate a single pressure in 2019 via the bull rush. That's not a problem if he's primarily engaged in coverage. But a 3-4 OLB is primarily engaged in getting to the quarterback. I don't think Baun can do that in 2020, and I don't know if he ever will. Again, Baun looks like a 4-3 stud who would be miscast in the 3-4.
3. OT Ezra Cleveland (Boise State). Cleveland excelled at the Combine, but he looks like he has a seriously long way to go as a functional football player. I was unimpressed by his power (or lack thereof), and I think he has a long way to go as a prospect. He's not a good fit on the inside in the short or long term.
4. TE Cole Kmet (Notre Dame). Kmet can really move, but it doesn't appear as though he can block much at all. Further, the 2020 Bears will likely get similar production to what Kmet can offer from Adam Shaheen. Kmet looks much better beyond 2020, but that's not likely to matter to Pace.
5. OG Shane Lemieux (Oregon). Lemieux can run, but he looks an awful lot like a player who isn't going to have enough power to hold up against NFL defensive linemen. The ceiling looks low here.
6. DE A.J. Epenesa (Iowa). He'd be a luxury pick. He's a great 4-3 DE, but he's too big and not quick enough to play OLB in a 3-4. That doesn't fit here. Could he find a home as a 3-4 DE with some additional bulk? Perhaps, but that requires projection and time while lacking current positional value.
7. OLB Josh Uche (Michigan). Uche has NFL pass rushing moves and quickness, but he doesn't look like an every-down player in the NFL. This is way too early for a situational player. He's more of a 4th/5th round pick in my eyes. At 245 lbs., I don't know how he'll be able to get big enough to make it work.
8. S Antoine Winfield Jr. (Minnesota). Winfield has name recognition, had a ton of picks in 2019, and is fast enough to stick in the NFL. However, he's undersized for a safety (5'9") and I think he lacks the quickness required to play in the slot. Plus, as a slot CB, he doesn't offer positional value to the Bears in 2020. His picks were almost entirely the result of lollipop passes that floated into his hands. That's not a repeatable skill. If he turns into Honey Badger Jr., I'll eat these words (I'm still eating my words on Mahomes).
9. WR Brandon Aiyuk (Arizona State). In a draft loaded with intriguing receivers, Aiyuk looks more like "just a guy" to me. I don't see particularly impressive body control, and I don't see a standout physical trait that scares me.
10. CB Bryce Hall (Virginia). Hall looks like a below-average starting cornerback. He has good size, but his speed looks only adequate while his ability to change direction and general explosiveness doesn't do it for me. He'd be great in the fourth round.
11. DE Neville Gallimore (Oklahoma). Gallimore has a tremendous motor. Otherwise, he looks suspiciously like Bilal Nichols. I'm not sure why he's regarded this highly as his moves look unrefined. He'd be a nice get in the 4th/5th round territory.
12. WR Laviska Shenault (Colorado). Shenault is a cool player who is a true wide receiver despite having the body and toughness of an elite running back (6'1", 227 lbs.). I should like him. So why don't I? Shenault was never open, not even in his highlights. He suffered a number of injuries in college, and simply couldn't separate from PAC-12 DBs. There's no way that's going to get easier in the NFL. No thanks.
13. CB Troy Pride (Notre Dame). Pride has enough speed, size, and experience to warrant a serious look. But his film was poor. I saw a DB who was timid, indecisive, and completely unable to get off of a block in run support. He looks like a project in the NFL, a surprising result for a Notre Dame senior.
5. Draft S Josh Metellus (Michigan) at any point in the draft. I've always been underwhelmed by him.
6. Trade up. For the love of all that is good, please don't.

Chicago Bears Draft Thoughts in Advance of the 2020 NFL Draft

Ryan Pace is desperate.

The thought above will dictate what the Bears do this weekend. Unsurprisingly, I am of the opinion that this will lead Pace to make another in a continuing series of draft-day mistakes. Despite that, I remain hopeful that this year will be different because, well, that's what I do.

In no particular order, here are my thoughts on the Bears and the draft.

1. I really, really want to see KJ Hamler end up on the Bears. He's the wide receiver target I'm most excited about since Alshon Jeffery. My affection for Alshon was unreasonable but turned out well. Here's hoping for the same outcome from Hamler. Hamler ended up at Penn State after an injury-ruined year at IMG Academy, but he's a product of Orchard Lake St. Mary's High School just like current Bears receiver Allen Robinson. Hamler is small -- officially just 5-8 -- but the NFL's most successful offenses these days rely on elite quarterback play and a bevy of speedy receiving options. Hamler might be small, but my goodness, the man can fly and he can juke elite defenders. Hamler's elite speed was famously etched into the minds of all Penn State fans when he ran away from Ohio State's Shaun Wade during the 2018 Whiteout. It's sensible to think that he'll struggle to stay healthy in the NFL. It's also sensible to think that he'll be a big play machine out of the slot at the next level. The Bears desperately need another explosive weapon on offense. Hamler can be that guy.

2. The Bears' salary cap table likely dictates their draft strategy. Whereas the best teams simply draft the best players, Pace's nightmarish management of the team's salary cap has left glaring holes at three spots. The interior offensive line only has two players making over the minimum in center Cody Whitehair and left guard James Daniels. The other contenders to start at right guard are former Seahawks bust Germain Ifedi and developmental prospect Alex Bars. Pace needs to draft a plug-and-play starter on the offensive line, whether that be a developmental tackle who can develop inside first (my preference) or a true interior lineman. Similarly, the only cornerbacks making above the minimum are Kyle Fuller and slot man Buster Skrine (who stinks). Steelers castoff Artie Burns, developmental prospects Kevin Toliver and Duke Shelley, and Canadian transplant Tre Roberson are currently slated to compete for the starting gig opposite Fuller. That won't cut it.

3. In order, the most significant needs for the team are a an offensive tackle (who can play guard), cornerback, safety, wide receiver, and outside linebacker. That's a whole lot of needs for a team with only two picks in the top 150. Defensive end also looks increasingly like a need given its primacy to the success of a 3-4 defense, Akiem Hicks's 2019 injury, and Roy Robertson-Harris's pending unrestricted free agency.

4. I've said for years that Pace's penchant for trading away picks in order to get "his guy" was going to come back to bite the team. That's happening now. In addition to the numerous needs above, the Bears would be well-served to draft a developmental tight end in the middle rounds of the draft this year. It sure seems like Jimmy Graham was signed to a hilariously outsized contract in order to be a one-year filler in the offense. But there aren't any mid-round picks for the Bears this year. They have selections #43 and #50, both in the second round, then they don't select again until #163. #43 was acquired from Oakland in the Khalil Mack trade, but that trade required that the Bears send Oakland their 2019 first-round pick as well as picks #19 and #81 this year. Pace sent #125 to New England as part of last year's trade for David Montgomery, another deal that saw Pace trade a significant amount of value for a chance to get "his guy." The Bears earned their first compensatory pick in over a decade this year...but Pace sent #140 to Jacksonville to acquire Nick Foles to paper over his whiff on Mitchell Trubisky. That leaves the Bears with #163, #196, #200 (from Philadelphia for Jordan Howard), #226 (from Vegas as part of the Mack trade), and #230. Those are some seriously unattractive picks with which to build out the bottom of the roster.

5. Now seems like as good a time as any to make this point: Pace has been continuously ripped off in making trades involving draft picks...except when he has traded down. Here's a summary of his trades using the Chase Stuart draft pick values and noting the player(s) selected when Pace has traded up. I haven't included values for player-for-pick trades with the exception of the Khalil Mack trade where Pace surrendered the picks in question and gave Mack a record-setting contract upon completing the deal.

• 2015 (NET: 0)
• Acquired #142 from New York Jets for WR Brandon Marshall and #224
• Selected S Adrian Amos
• 2016 (NET: +7.4)
• Acquired #9 (+20.6) from Tampa Bay for #11 (-19.3) and #106 (-6.4)
• Selected OLB Leonard Floyd
• NET: -5.1 (equivalent to #123 overall (mid-4th round pick))
• Acquired #49 (+13.3), #117 (+5.5), and 2017 #117 (+5.5) from Buffalo for #41 (-15.0)
• NET: +9.3 (equivalent to #75 overall (mid-3rd round pick))
• Acquired #56 (+12.0) and #124 (+5.0) from Seattle for #49 (-13.3)
• NET: +3.7 (equivalent to #145 overall (late-4th round pick))
• Acquired #113 (+5.8) from Los Angeles Rams for #117 (-5.5) and #206 (-0.8)
• Selected ILB Nick Kwiatkoski
• NET: -0.5 (equivalent to #212 overall (late-6th round pick))
• Acquired #127 from New England for #204 and TE Martellus Bennett
• Selected S Deiondre' Hall
• 2017 (NET: -9.9)
• Acquired #2 (+30.2) from San Francisco for #3 (-27.6), #67 (-7.8), #111 (-4.6), and #70 (-7.5) in 2018
• Selected QB Mitchell Trubisky
• NET: -17.3 (equivalent to #15 overall (mid-1st round pick))
• Acquired #45 (+10.4), #119 (+4.2), #197 (+1.1), and #115 (+4.4) in 2018 from Arizona for #36 (-11.8) and #221 (-0.2)
• NET: +8.1 (equivalent to #64 overall (late-2nd round pick))
• Acquired #112 (+4.6) from Los Angeles Rams for #117 (-4.3) and #197 (-1.0)
• NET: -0.7 (equivalent to #205 overall (late-6th round pick))
• Selected S Eddie Jackson
• Acquired TE Khari Lee from Houston for #188
• 2018 (NET: -4.4)
• Acquired #51 (+9.6) from New England for #105 (-5.0) and #56 in 2019 (-9.0)
• NET: -4.4 (equivalent to #114 overall (early-4th round pick))
• Selected WR Anthony Miller
• 2019 (NET: -31.7)
• Acquired OLB Khalil Mack, #43 in 2020 (+10.6), and #226 (0) in 2020 from Oakland/Las Vegas for #24 (-14.4) and #196 (-1.2) as well as #19 (-15.8) and #81 in 2020 (-6.6)
• NET: -27.4 (equivalent to #3 overall (high-1st round pick) + OLB Khalil Mack
• Acquired #73 (+7.3) and #205 (+0.7) from New England for #87 (-6.2), #162 (-2.2), and #125 in 2020 (-3.9)
• NET: -4.3 (equivalent to #116 overall (early-4th round pick)
• Selected RB David Montgomery
• Acquired #222 from Philadelphia for S Deiondre' Hall
• Selected RB Kerrith Whyte
• 2020
• Acquired QB Nick Foles from Jacksonville for #140
• Acquired #200 from Philadelphia for RB Jordan Howard

*You'll notice that I don't discount for future picks. While a pick in a later year might be less valuable to Ryan Pace or to the current year's Bears team, it's no less valuable to the franchise.

The total net value created by Pace in his draft pick trades from 2015-19: -38.6. That's equivalent to more than the #1 overall pick (34.6). It's also equivalent to the 30th overall pick three times.

There's a painful irony here. When Pace traded up in the middle rounds at a minimal cost, he found plenty of success. Further, Pace built his best team largely on the strength of mid-round picks. He found excellent value in the fourth rounds of 2016-17 with ILB Nick Kwiatkoski, S Eddie Jackson, and RB Tarik Cohen, but he has subsequently dealt away a bevy of mid-round picks, leaving the roster bereft of meaningful depth.

6. As I've done in prior years, here's a list of scenarios for Pace from most desirable to least desirable, although this year I'm operating with the caveat that Pace needs to save his job and thus will focus heavily on players that can help the 2020 roster:

1. Trade down. A few times. Pace is one-for-two trading back in the second round, ending up with OG Cody Whitehair the first time and TE Adam Shaheen the second time. In both events, trading down yielded valuable picks that turned into important contributors: ILB Nick Kwiatkoski, S Deon Bush, and, following another minor deal, S Eddie Jackson. Pace desperately needs to do that again.
2. Get a couple of day-one starters by standing pat at #43 and #50. This player cannot be a running back, inside linebacker, defensive lineman, or tight end due to extreme needs elsewhere (I know that the preceding sentence is dumb). I didn't review the top-20 or so players in the class, so they won't appear here. Obviously if somebody undergoes an insane draft slide like OT Mekhi Becton or QB Tua Tagovailoa, the Bears should pounce. But since there's a 0.00000000001% chance of players like that reaching the middle of round two, they're not addressed here. Players I like in this range: 
1. OT Robert Hunt (Louisiana-Lafayette). What can I say? I'm a sucker for Ragin' Cajuns in round two (hat tip to Peanut). Hunt is my ideal prospect for the offensive line, a true tackle prospect who can start day one at guard. Hunt is seriously athletic, overpowering interior defensive linemen and shutting down edge rushers. It's tough to evaluate the quality of his competition, but the starter kit is there for a long-time starter. (After I compiled the 43 names on this list, I saw an NFL.com mock draft that mocked Hunt to the Bears...at #196 overall!)
2. OLB Darrell Taylor (Tennessee). Wow. Taylor is remarkably explosive with the best get-off of an OLB I saw. At 6'4", 267 lbs., he has the size to play from day one. His body control and flexibility looked more like a slot receiver than an edge rusher. I couldn't believe how low to the ground he got on multiple rushes without losing his speed. If the Bears didn't have a horrible hole on the offensive line, Taylor would be my #1 player on this list.
3. CB A.J. Terrell (Clemson). Nearly my ideal get for the Bears. Terrell is lengthy (6'1") with great speed and agility. He has smooth moves. He lacks girth at 195 lbs., and at some point, Clemson DBs are going to run into issues having played against terrible competition all year. For Terrell, that meant getting toasted by Ja'Marr Chase in the National Championship Game. Nevertheless, I'd roll the dice with Terrell.
4. WR Denzel Mims (Baylor). 6'3", 207 lbs. with elite speed. His body control reminds me of Alshon's. He's hands aren't as sure, but he's much more athletic. He'd be a steal in the middle of round two in part because he's an idyllic red zone target who can both fight through coverage and get open in tight spaces. I don't understand why he isn't a top-20 prospect.
5. C/G Lloyd Cushenberry (LSU). Cushenberry checks every box. He played center for LSU, so he has carried a significant burden against elite competition and held up. He has extremely long arms, moves well, and is plenty powerful to hold up in the NFL. His film against Alabama was really impressive.
6. CB Jaylon Johnson (Utah). I'm not sure that Johnson has any elite skills, but I think he's genuinely good at everything. Good closing speed. Good but not elite size (6'0", 197 lbs.). Good hip turns. If there's one thing that appears elite, it's his football instincts. He looks like a perfect plug-and-play candidate.
7. WR KJ Hamler (Penn State). There are a lot of reasons to be wary of Hamler detailed above. But there's one reason to love the guy and it's insanely important in the modern league governed by passing attacks and illegal contact penalties: speed. And Hamler has it in spades.
8. OT Isaiah Wilson (Georgia). Wilson is absolutely enormous at 6'6", 350 lbs., but he can move well enough. He fits the bill as a big body to plug into the interior while developing his footwork for the outside.
9. WR Justin Jefferson (LSU). I'm a huge fan of his. He's got the speed to play inside or out with experience playing the slot. At 6'1", 200 lbs., he's got great size in the slot. He's more a strider than a quick-twitch option, but if he's available in the middle of round two, he has to merit serious consideration.
10. S Kyle Dugger (Lenoir-Rhyne). Dugger is big (6'1", 217 lbs), fast, and strong. He's an ideal mate for Eddie Jackson at safety. But he played at Lenoir-Rhyne. It's hard to be confident about him as a day one starter, but if he is, he might be a star.
11. S Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois). Chinn is huge, fast, and strong, running a 4.45 40 at 6'3", 221 lbs. Like Dugger before him, he's the right kind of safety to pair with Eddie Jackson. The big concern: what's his learning curve having played in the Missouri Valley Conference? That's for the scouts to determine. If he's adept enough to play right away, he'd be higher on this list. If he'll need a year or two to adjust, he'd be down in the next grouping despite the physical traits.
12. CB Jeff Gladney (TCU). Gladney's film reminds me of watching Kyle Fuller at Virginia Tech. Gladney is less fluid than Fuller was, but he's very athletic and runs well with all types of receivers. He's likely to be available in the second round due to poor size (only 5'10"), but he should be a plug-and-play draftee.
13. OT Prince Tega Wanogho (Auburn). I like Wanogho as a left tackle prospect much more than Wilson, but Wanogho may not have a home on the interior in the NFL, making him slightly less attractive to the 2020 Bears. He's tremendously athletic, and his background as a swimmer and basketball player makes me even more confident that he'll have the unique fluidity required for elite production in the NFL. But I don't think the inside will work.
14. OLB Julian Okwara (Notre Dame). At 6'4", 252 lbs., with really long arms, and elite quickness, Okwara is an ideal complement to Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn. Okwara brings the coverage skills that Leonard Floyd took with him to Los Angeles while also possessing the kind of pass-rush burst that is required for an OLB. I really like him.
15. OLB Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State). OLB isn't a need in the same way as certain other positions, but the 3-4 defense only works with consistent edge pressure so it's always high on the list. Gross-Matos looks like a perfect 4-3 DE, but he should be a strong fit as a 3-4 OLB and he'd offer some versatility as a possible hand-in-the-dirt rusher on obvious pass rushing situations with Khalil Mack or Robert Quinn further outside.
16. WR Michael Pittman Jr. (USC). Normally I'm leery of late-bloomers like Pittman, but when said late-bloomer is 6'5" with solid speed, good hands, and the ability to high-point the ball with hits mitts, I'll make an exception. He'd be a nice long-term complement to Allen Robinson on the outside. It's also likely that Kedon Slovis didn't run the most complicated offense at USC, so a more experienced QB could help Pittman emerge quickly at the next level.
17. G/C Cesar Ruiz (Michigan). I definitely didn't want to put Ruiz in this group, but he left me no choice. He's athletic with interior offensive line flexibility, and he's a multi-year starter against elite competition. Ruiz also fared well against the likes of Ohio State and Notre Dame. He'd be expected to start the opener. He checks all of the boxes.
18. G/C Jonah Jackson (Ohio State). It's weird to see Rutgers in this zone, even via a transfer. But Jackson earned his way here. His pass blocking is impressive, and at 6'3", 306 lbs., he should be able to hold up from day one. He's never going to be a mauler in the run game, but Jackson was superb against Clemson. That says something and suggests that his skills are translatable to the NFL.
19. WR Tee Higgins (Clemson). Higgins is a dream player in a different offense, one that is more interested in an explicitly vertical attack. Unfortunately, that's not a great fit for the Bears who want quickness and separation. I would've loved to see whether Higgins could separate from Jeff Okudah, but Higgins so obviously suffered an early concussion in the national semifinal that it's hard to meaningfully evaluate his production against Ohio State or LSU.
20. OLB Terrell Lewis (Alabama). Lewis is the last player in this section. I really liked his film. He already has an ideal 3-4 OLB build at 6'5", 262 lbs., and he showed the ability to overpower and get around SEC offensive tackles with a seriously impressive burst. However, he comes with serious risk given a number of significant injuries in college. In this case, I think that the risk would be worth it.
3. Stay at #43 and #50, and draft players that are OK but underwhelming, or that I like but without positional value. Players that are OK for the 2020 Bears but don't knock my socks off:
1. DE Ross Blacklock (TCU). Blacklock was a lock for this spot. I love his film. He's incredibly explosive in an ideal 6'3", 290 lbs. frame. So why doesn't he get into the first group? Defensive end isn't a need in the same way as other positions are, and given that Pace will be drafting for his job, he'll need some 2020 starters from this draft. With Hicks, Robertson-Harris, and Nichols on board, DE just doesn't offer enough value to the 2020 team.
2. S Grant Delpit (LSU). Delpit looks like a solid bet to be a solid starter, and comes with very good size (6'2", 213 lbs.) and coverage skills. So why is he in this lower grouping? The Bears need a safety next to Eddie Jackson who can offer quality run support, and Delpit doesn't appear to be that guy. He's an adept blitzer and strong in coverage, but he's unlikely to be that extra body in the box.
3. CB Trevon Diggs (Alabama). Diggs has excellent size (6'1", 205 lbs.) and a rangy build. Unfortunately, he comes complete with an injury history that creates some risk. He also looks a bit more rigid than some of the other corners on this list and appears to lack elite speed.
4. OT Lucas Niang (TCU). Niang has a true tackle future and I like his athleticism with his big size, but I'm worried about a torn labrum in his hip. The Bears need a day one starter on the offensive line, and Niang's recent injury may prevent him from being that guy. If he's healthy, he'd be at the top of this section. I'd expect him to be available at the end of the second round, so he could be the guy with a trade down.
5. CB Damon Arnette (Ohio State). It's really tough to put an Ohio State defensive back in this group given the Bears' needs and the Buckeyes' history of producing elite DBs, but Arnette's fluidity was much less impressive than I expected. I have no doubt that he'll be useful in run support, but he's not fast enough to play great man coverage. Because the Bears spend so much time in zone, he should be able to mask that deficiency, but there's risk here.
6. DE Marlon Davidson (Auburn). Davidson's body and style of play don't line up at all. He's 6'3", 303 lbs., but he's a true powerful force off of the edge. I'd love to have him as a new age 4-3 DE, but that doesn't fit the Bears. I don't think he's a true edge setter as a 3-4 DE, but it sure would be fun to find out.
7. WR Jalen Reagor (TCU). He's plenty fast and has nice agility in tight spaces. His hands also look nice. On the whole, however, he looks a lot like Anthony Miller with good but not elite speed and lacking elite size. Reagor's agility could be the difference maker.
8. DE Justin Madubuike (Texas A&M). Madubuike isn't as unique as Davidson before him, but he does look like a solid 3-4 DE with some pass rushing upside. I liked his film rushing from the interior of the defensive line. How well that translates to the edge is an open question.
9. OT Austin Jackson (USC). He looks seriously athletic and projects as a true NFL tackle. But I'm underwhelmed by what I've seen and see a player who needs a year or two of development. That's not a plug-and-play lineman.
10. CB Noah Igbinoghene (Auburn). He doesn't have much size (5'10", 198 lbs.) and I'm underwhelmed by his ball skills. Even in his highlights, he struggled to timely turn his head. However, he's got speed to burn, he's a very willing run defender, and would bring value in the return game if his value at CB didn't force him out of that role. He'd be an OK pick.
11. WR Gabriel Davis (UCF). AAC cornerbacks couldn't handle Davis, which sadly makes evaluating him tough. He's got good-but-not-great speed and I do like his hands catching balls in traffic. Ultimately his agility or lack thereof gets him dropped into this group because I question his YAC ability.
4. Stay at #43 and #50, but draft players I don't like, either because of their skill sets or their fits with the Bears. Players I don't like for the 2020 Bears:
1. WR Chase Claypool (Notre Dame). Claypool is such an intriguing talent. I just don't think he's the right intriguing talent for the Bears offense. He's enormous, but he doesn't have the agility or the burst of the receivers that find themselves higher on this list despite his excellent 40 at the Combine.
2. OT Ezra Cleveland (Boise State). Cleveland excelled at the Combine, but he looks like he has a seriously long way to go as a functional football player. I was unimpressed by his power (or lack thereof), and I think he has a long way to go as a prospect. He's not a good fit on the inside in the short or long term.
3. TE Cole Kmet (Notre Dame). Kmet can really move, but it doesn't appear as though he can block much at all. Further, the 2020 Bears will likely get similar production to what Kmet can offer from Adam Shaheen. Kmet looks much better beyond 2020, but that's not likely to matter to Pace.
4. OG Shane Lemieux (Oregon). Lemieux can run, but he looks an awful lot like a player who isn't going to have enough power to hold up against NFL defensive linemen. The ceiling looks low here.
5. DE A.J. Epenesa (Iowa). He'd be a luxury pick. He's a great 4-3 DE, but he's too big and not quick enough to play OLB in a 3-4. That doesn't fit here. Could he find a home as a 3-4 DE with some additional bulk? Perhaps, but that requires projection and time while lacking current positional value.
6. OLB Josh Uche (Michigan). Uche has NFL pass rushing moves and quickness, but he doesn't look like an every-down player in the NFL. This is way too early for a situational player. He's more of a 4th/5th round pick in my eyes. At 245 lbs., I don't know how he'll be able to get big enough to make it work.
7. S Antoine Winfield Jr. (Minnesota). Winfield has name recognition, had a ton of picks in 2019, and is fast enough to stick in the NFL. However, he's undersized for a safety (5'9") and I think he lacks the quickness required to play in the slot. Plus, as a slot CB, he doesn't offer positional value to the Bears in 2020. His picks were almost entirely the result of lollipop passes that floated into his hands. That's not a repeatable skill. If he turns into Honey Badger Jr., I'll eat these words (I'm still eating my words on Mahomes).
8. WR Brandon Aiyuk (Arizona State). In a draft loaded with intriguing receivers, Aiyuk looks more like "just a guy" to me. I don't see particularly impressive body control, and I don't see a standout physical trait that scares me.
9. CB Bryce Hall (Virginia). Hall looks like a below-average starting cornerback. He has good size, but his speed looks only adequate while his ability to change direction and general explosiveness doesn't do it for me. He'd be great in the fourth round.
10. DE Neville Gallimore (Oklahoma). Gallimore has a tremendous motor. Otherwise, he looks suspiciously like Bilal Nichols. I'm not sure why he's regarded this highly as his moves look unrefined. He'd be a nice get in the 4th/5th round territory.
11. WR Laviska Shenault (Colorado). Shenault is a cool player who is a true wide receiver despite having the body and toughness of an elite running back (6'1", 227 lbs.). I should like him. So why don't I? Shenault was never open, not even in his highlights. He suffered a number of injuries in college, and simply couldn't separate from PAC-12 DBs. There's no way that's going to get easier in the NFL. No thanks.
12. CB Troy Pride (Notre Dame). Pride has enough speed, size, and experience to warrant a serious look. But his film was poor. I saw a DB who was timid, indecisive, and completely unable to get off of a block in run support. He looks like a project in the NFL, a surprising result for a Notre Dame senior.
5. Draft S Josh Metellus (Michigan) at any point in the draft. I've always been underwhelmed by him.
6. Trade up. For the love of all that is good, please don't.

It goes without saying that I'd be quite happy to see any of the above players land with the Bears in the fourth round or later (assuming they acquire additional picks). Even a player like Pride or Winfield Jr. who comes with serious warts would be a fine addition late in the draft.

Here's hoping for some fireworks this weekend!

Penn State's 2020 Recruiting Class Shows Disagreement Between Peer Institutions and Recruiting Services

Two years ago, I dug into the Nittany recruiting class, remarking at how strong the offers were for the prospects that eventually comprised the Nittany class: the spurned offers were littered with the likes of Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, and even Alabama.

After commending head coach James Franklin for signing one of the school's best classes ever, I examined all of Penn State's classes for the prior decade in depth. Go read that piece for a full summary. For this piece, a brief primer will suffice:

Paterno's Last Five Classes
2007: 39th (14 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 4 ★★★★, 9 ★★★)
2008: 40th (15 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 5 ★★★★, 9 ★★★)
2009: 19th (24 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 7 ★★★★, 16 ★★★)
2010: 13th (18 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 13 ★★★★, 5 ★★★)

2011: 31st (16 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 5 ★★★★, 10 ★★★)

The 2012 Class (Paterno, an exodus, then O'Brien)
2012: 47th (20 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 3 ★★★★, 16 ★★★)

O'Brien's Class
2013: 33rd (16 recruits, 1 ★★★★★, 3 ★★★★, 11 ★★★)

The 2014 Class (O'Brien, then Franklin)
2014: 24th (25 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 5 ★★★★, 20 ★★★)

Franklin's First Five Classes
2015: 14th (25 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 13 ★★★★, 12 ★★★)

2016: 20th (20 recruits, 1 ★★★★★, 7 ★★★★, 11 ★★★)

2017: 15th (22 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 11 ★★★★, 10 ★★★)

2018: 6th (23 recruits, 3 ★★★★★, 12 ★★★★, 8 ★★★)

2019: 13th (23 recruits, 1 ★★★★★, 17 ★★★★, 5 ★★★)

The path to signing the 2020 class was bumpy, to say the least. In the span of a week in early June, the class lost four four-star recruits: OLB Derek Wingo to Florida, CB Joshuah Moten to Texas A&M, OT Grant Toutant to Ohio State (though Toutant subsequently dipped to three-star status), and G Aaryn Parks to Oklahoma. That stretch was surely discouraging.

But the class didn't stay down for long as the coaching staff somehow secured a stunning 14 recruits between June 3rd and July 5th. In the 15 or so years that I've followed recruiting, I don't remember a stretch of anything even close to this.

As was the case last year, the point of this post is simple: the players that comprise the class are largely players targeted by elite peer institutions. While the 2020 class will always come with a twinge of disappointment as it doesn't include either DE Bryan Bresee or WR Julian Fleming despite both of those elite 2020 prospects being in Nittany's own backyard, it does present an intriguing case study in the gaps between player evaluation by other top-notch college coaching staffs and those of the professional recruiting sites. Here's the top five offers for each player in the Penn State class (using my own highly unofficial prestige rankings).

• ★★★★ OLB Curtis Jacobs
• Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Florida, Nebraska, Wisconsin
• ★★★★ TE Theo Johnson
• Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, LSU, Michigan
• ★★★★ CB Enzo Jennings
• Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, Notre Dame
• ★★★★ WR KeAndre Lambert
• Clemson, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Michigan, Florida
• ★★★★ RB Caziah Holmes
• Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, Auburn, Florida State
• ★★★★ DT Cole Brevard
• Clemson, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Michigan, Florida State
• ★★★★ DT Coziah Izzard
• Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Notre Dame, Texas A&M
• ★★★★ RB Keyvone Lee
• Alabama, Florida, LSU, Florida State, Tennessee
• ★★★★ WR Parker Washington
• Wisconsin, Nebraska, Duke, Kentucky, Utah
• ★★★★ WR Jaden Dottin
• Michigan, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Duke
• ★★★★ OLB Zuriah Fisher
• Texas A&M, Nebraska, Michigan State, Kentucky, Minnesota
• ★★★ OT Jimmy Christ
• Clemson, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Michigan, Florida
• ★★★ CB Joseph Johnson
• Ohio State, Florida State, Florida, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh
• ★★★ OT Olu Fashanu
• Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan, Oregon

• ★★★ G Golden Israel-Achumba
• LSU, Michigan, Oklahoma, Florida, Ole Miss
• ★★★ QB Micah Bowens
• Oregon, Nebraska, Ole Miss, Brigham Young, Arizona
• ★★★ S Ji'Ayir Brown (JUCO)
• Kent State (Brown also committed immediately upon receiving his early offer)
• ★★★ DE Amin Vanover
• Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, Oregon
• ★★★ ILB Tyler Elsdon
• West Virginia, Louisville, Maryland, Virginia, Vanderbilt (Ivys, too)
• ★★★ DE Brandon Taylor
• Michigan, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia
• ★★★ DE Bryce Mostella
• Ohio State, Michigan, Miami, Nebraska, Kentucky
• ★★★ WR Malick Meiga
• South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia, Baylor, Louisville
• ★★★ WR Norval Black (JUCO)
• N/A (Black committed immediately upon receiving his first offer)
• ★★★ TE Tyler Warren
• Michigan, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Virginia
• ★★★ DT Fatorma Mulbah
• Temple, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Navy, Army
• ★★★ OT Ibrahim Traore
• Miami, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Minnesota, West Virginia
• ★★★ G Nick Dawkins

• Tennessee, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Northwestern, Louisville (Ivys, too)

The transfer portal has yet to wield its full influence on the Penn State roster, but even with a handful of players off to the NFL, Penn State figures to lose half a dozen players or more to the portal in addition to former five-star recruit WR Justin Shorter. Shorter leaving surely hurts from an optics standpoint, but his inability to catch the ball derailed his career at Penn State more than anything else could. Such is life now in major college football.

Of course, there could also be an incoming transfer or two even though the depth chart doesn't feature an obvious hole outside of perhaps an experienced cornerback, especially if Tariq Castro-Fields opts for the NFL draft.

In the end, the 2020 recruiting class surely wasn't as impressive as the 2018 haul and there's a case to be made that the 2019 group was stronger despite its similar overall ranking. Nevertheless, the 2020 group turned out to be another strong one:

Franklin's Most Recent Class

2020: 13th (likely 14th/15th in the end) (27 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 11 ★★★★, 16 ★★★)

Before offering final thoughts on the class, all of my standard Franklin-centric disclaimers apply, especially this one: it's a good thing that Franklin continues to bring in strong classes because his gameday coaching continues to lag horribly behind his peers, especially those in the Big Ten East, and he'll need a number of young players to step into key roles this year.

At first glance, that annual requirement looks like a taller order in future years given the lack of ultra elite talent in this year's class. And in two senses, I agree: (1) the ratings are objectively a bit lower than in prior years, and (2) the class features a disproportionately high number of projects on the line, players who notoriously develop more slowly than players at skill positions. In another sense, however, there are some real reasons for optimism. In particular, I'm encouraged by the other offers received by many of Nittany's three-star recruits. OT Fashanu stands out with offers from most elite schools as does DE Vanover as a defensive lineman offered by each of Clemson, Alabama, and Ohio State. I'm also hopeful due to the relatively high ratings of a handful of the three-star players: there are 368 players comprising the five- and four-star ranks of the 247 Composite. Of Penn State's three-star recruits, Christ is 369th, Johnson is 379th, Fashanu is 394th, Israel-Achumba is 422nd, Bowens is 423rd, and even Vanover is 441st with Brown landing somewhere between Bowens and Vanover (albeit as a JUCO). This surely isn't quite as fun as having a class with 15+ four-star recruits, but it's something.

For now, after compiling just one top-15 class from 2007-14, Penn State can celebrate their fifth such class in six full years under Franklin.

2019 NFL Picks (including detail on the Bears)

I've made some crummy picks in prior years. Some really crummy picks. But nothing even remotely approaches the prescience of the sentence "I don't buy Patrick Mahomes." Yikes.

Not much else to say, so let's get right to it! I've done very little research and these rumblings are primarily the result of my gut, not any deep thoughts.

NFC West
Los Angeles Rams (10-6) - Lots of talent across the board, but a step back nonetheless.
San Francisco (8-8) - I don't love Jimmy. But the defensive front is incredible. Their floor is high.
Seattle (8-8) - The Clowney fleecing should stop the defensive bleeding.
Arizona (3-13) - Hopefully Murray is fun because the talent is seriously lacking here.

NFC South
New Orleans (10-6) - I finally won't pick against these guys. Brees gets it done in a tight division.
Carolina (9-7) - This schedule is easy. If Cam is healthy, could be another big year.
Atlanta (9-7) - Lots of talent still. O-Line improvements should help a lot.
Tampa Bay (7-9) - I really like the offense, especially the pass catchers. Pressure on Jameis.

NFC East
Philadelphia (11-5) - The defense underwhelms, but the schedule is too easy and Wentz grows.
Dallas (8-8) - This roster has a good ceiling, but I don't trust them; the floor is low. Should be 3-0.
New York Giants (7-9) - Saquon is amazing. Roster is better around him, but needs more pieces.
Washington (2-14) - They got worse last year; they should be horrendous this year.

NFC North
Green Bay (13-3) - Rodgers + way more talented + five of first seven at home --> Super Bowl.
Chicago (10-6) - The Bears have little depth, but their top-line talent is great. Much tougher sked.
Minnesota (10-6) - They're not quite as talented as 2017, but there's enough here for a good year.
Detroit (4-12) - They moved the pieces around and improved some. Wrong division though.

AFC West
Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) - With Derwin James, they'd be the #2 in the NFL. So good.
Kansas City (11-5) - I now buy Mahomes. Opening schedule couldn't be easier.
Denver (8-8) - Elite defense + stinkbomb offense. Fangio needs some real help to figure out O.
Oakland (6-10) - Better talent, but wrong division yields crummy results in Oakland finale.

AFC South
Jacksonville (12-4) - Dripping with defensive talent and O-Line looks good. No pressure, Foles...
Houston (10-6) - Baffling move to give away Clowney and future is now mortgaged. But still good.
Tennessee (6-10) - I bought them twice. No longer. Time for a rebuild.
Indianapolis (4-12) - Talent has improved dramatically, but Luck's retirement is a death knell.

AFC East
New England (13-3) - This division is still poor. Too easy for New England.
Buffalo (8-8) - I actually really like the talent on this roster...just not at QB. Front seven is elite.
New York Jets (6-10) - They're progressing, but slowly. Perhaps by 2020?
Miami (1-15) - The tank is ON. It's going to be a brutally ugly year in Miami.

AFC North
Cleveland (11-5) - Can they get to November intact? If so, there are a lot of wins to be had.
Pittsburgh (9-7) - Tough early schedule, but they'll go on a run late.
Baltimore (8-8) - A lot to like on defense. But how does Lamar/the rest of the league adjust to him?
Cincinnati (3-13) - This is an ugly looking roster. It's going to be a long year.

NFC Playoff Tree
#5 Chicago over #4 New Orleans
#3 Los Angeles Rams over #6 Minnesota

#1 Green Bay over #5 Chicago (barf)
#2 Philadelphia over #3 Los Angeles Rams

#1 Green Bay over #2 Philadelphia

AFC Playoff Tree
#4 Cleveland over #5 Kansas City
#3 Los Angeles Chargers over #6 Houston

#1 New England over #4 Cleveland
#2 Jacksonville over #3 Los Angeles Chargers

#1 New England over #2 Jacksonville

Super Bowl
#1 New England over #1 Green Bay

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Some bonus notes on the Bears in lieu of a full, separate piece:

• I had no expectations for last year's team. I was just excited to see a real team play football again. This year, my expectations are that an extremely talented team will play a really tough schedule. Lots of possible outcomes here.
• The schedule is bizarre. The Bears play in DC on September 23rd, then they don't play a true road game again until November 3rd. The roadies in the season's final two months are all brutal: Philly, the Rams, Detroit (on Thanksgiving), Green Bay, and Minnesota. They desperately need to win their first three road games (Denver, Washington, and in London versus the Raiders). That's a tall order.
• I'm again most excited to see Allen Robinson in a Bears uniform after watching him at OLSM, Penn State, and with the Jaguars. Another year removed from surgery, I'm hoping for more explosiveness.
• The depth at wide receiver is tremendous: Robinson, Anthony Miller, and Taylor Gabriel are a solid starting crew, but the reserves of Cordarrelle Patterson, Riley Ridley, and Javon Wims should ensure that the Bears always have starting-caliber receivers on the field, regardless of what occurs on the injury and substitution fronts. It's a far cry from the top three of Dontrelle Inman, Kendall Wright, and Deonte Thompson from 2017. Inman and Thompson both got cut last month while Wright is out of the league.
• The offensive line is a true plus unit from left to right with Charles Leno - Cody Whitehair - James Daniels - Kyle Long - Bobby Massie. The depth, however, is non-existent outside of adequate interior reserve Ted Larsen. I think that the Bears are better equipped to absorb a Mitch Trubisky injury than one to Leno or Massie.
• The backs that will run behind that line look like an excellent collection of complementary talent. David Montgomery sure better justify his draft slot (and the trade haul Pace surrendered to get there). Even if he doesn't, however, Tarik Cohen and Mike Davis will be more than sufficient to support the rushing attack.
• The tight end group has a greater variance in possible outcomes than any other position. Trey Burton was great last year...when he was healthy. His groin is already balky this year. Adam Shaheen was a Combine star...who kept getting hurt. He missed most of the preseason. Ben Braunecker has looked good as a #3 tight end, but he's probably nothing more than that. And Bradley Sowell is a blocker.
• I love the top four on the defensive line with starting nose Eddie Goldman and three primary ends Akiem Hicks, Bilal Nichols, and Roy Robertson-Harris. Hicks remains essential, but Nichols and Robertson-Harris were both so good that they rendered Jonathan Bullard superfluous.
• Khalil Mack simply cannot get hurt. The outside linebacker position remains dreadful behind him with only the subpar Leonard Floyd, regularly-injured Aaron Lynch, and 2017 undrafted rookie Isaiah Irving behind him. That's it. Mack is the single most essential player to the success of the 2019 Bears.
• Thank God Pace hasn't signed Marcus Cooper again this year...at least not yet.
• I don't like HaHa Clinton-Dix as much as Adrian Amos, but the efficiency of the Bears-Packers safety "trade" is tough to question. With Eddie Jackson, Deon Bush and DeAndre Houston-Carson, the safety group remains very strong.
• The cornerback group isn't as attractive as it was last year after swapping out Bryce Callahan and replacing him with Buster Skrine. Here's hoping that (1) Skrine's deficiencies were the result of playing in a poor Jets defense, and/or (2) Sherrick McManis can carry the load in the slot if Skrine isn't up to the task.
• Eddy Pineiro, please make your kicks. I don't like his approaching and leg swing, but I also thought that Chris Sale would never stick as a starter in the Majors thanks to his delivery. There's no one way to do your job well. The Bears are going to be in a lot of close games. Pineiro needs to get the job done.
• Now, we get to Mitch. He's a weird quarterback: he's sneaky athletic and a truly plus runner, but I can't tell if he's actually any good when it comes time to throw the football. With another year in Matt Nagy's offense, in his third year as a pro, and with an offense full of weapons around him, this is arguably the best shot Trubisky will have at making a Super Bowl run for the foreseeable future. No pressure, kid.
• Finally, the depth issues on the roster remain noticeable at a few spots. The lack of valuable draft picks as a result of the Trubisky, Mack, Miller, and Montgomery trades is particularly obvious when examining the missing depth on the offensive line, at outside linebacker, and at cornerback. Health will likely determine the success of the 2019 campaign more than coaching or scheme.

I picked the Bears for 10-6 above. Here's how I got there:

Green Bay: 60%

@ Denver: 70%

@ Washington: 90%

Minnesota: 65%

Oakland (London): 80%

BYE

New Orleans: 60%

Los Angeles Chargers: 55%

@ Philadelphia: 30%

Detroit: 85%

@ Los Angeles Rams: 35%

New York Giants: 75%

@ Detroit: 50%

Dallas: 70%

@ Green Bay: 35%

Kansas City: 60%

@ Minnesota: 40%

That yields 9.2 wins if we take a strict view of the odds, but I've come to appreciate the deviations above or below 8 yield wins at a more significant level than that of a one-to-one ratio. Accordingly, 10-6 it is.

To close, I'm adding one additional feature this year: a list of the Bears' 10 most indispensable players. Here goes:

1. OLB Khalil Mack
2. LT Charles Leno Jr.
3. QB Mitch Trubisky
4. OLB Leonard Floyd (even though he's not all that good)
5. CB Kyle Fuller
6. RT Bobby Massie
7. S   Eddie Jackson
8. CB Prince Amukamara
9. NT Eddie Goldman
10. WR Allen Robinson

Clearly that isn't a list of the Bears' top-10 players in order; for example, Akiem Hicks would rate very near the top of a list of the club's best players, but with both Roy Robertson-Harris and Bilal Nichols around to pick up the load if Hicks goes out, he's far less indispensable than Mack, whose absence would alarmingly force Aaron Lynch into a full-time gig. Seen in that light, the list above is relatively self-explanatory.

I suspect that the Bears will have a great season if the listed players above prove to be paragons of health in 2019. If, instead, that group is littered with injured stars, 2019 could be a long, unpleasant season.