Bears Third Drive
- There's Devin Hester! That quick screen to set up a one-on-one match-up rarely works. But it has worked for Hester before and worked again there.
- A strong run by Bush is negated by a rather weak personal foul called on Rachal.
- Then a gimme pass interference call drawn by Hester.
- Michael Bush, my goodness. Another hurdle.
- Brandon Marshall just knows how to use his body. His long third-down grab was a thing of beauty.
- I imagine Cutler could have gotten past Vanden Bosch, but the quarterback slipped. Without that sack, it's possible that the Bears could have reentered field goal range on the drive. Instead they're punting again. Podlesh hit a strong punt but got an imperfect bounce.
- I have to imagine we're about to see a deliberate scoring drive from the Lions.
Lions Third Drive
- Conte got caught in no-man's-land on the Lions opening play, but Stafford still read a Conte blitz, throwing the ball away. The young safety caught a real break.
- I like that the officials didn't call pass interference on Stafford's silly bomb toward Calvin. Still, Tillman took an unnecessary risk by slowing down in Johnson's path to the ball. Had Peanut continued running, he could have made a play on the ball.
- The Lions made the perfect play call on third down, throwing a screen right over the top of a Bears blitz. But Brian Urlacher is headed for the Hall of Fame. He may not be fast. He may not be quick. But he's going to be in the right spot. Two blockers, one receiver, and only one Bear. But he's Brian Urlacher.
- Harris hit his worst punt of the night. Good thing Tillman didn't try to intercept that deep pass for Calvin.
Bears Fourth Drive
- Strong running from Michael Bush has allowed the Bears to move the ball rather consistently. Without much of a hole, he made a nice run to the left side and set up the offense to take a chance - albeit unsuccessful - on second down.
- Good coverage by the Lions forces a Cutler rollout without receivers to hit downfield.
- Logan, holy cow. I get that he wanted to save a couple of yards, but with a coverage man on his back, a muffed catch there would have ended the game. Simply not worth the risk.
Lions Fourth Drive
- Stafford has quite an arm. His dump off to Titus Young traveled about 30 aerial yards, but he made it look like a quick flick of the wrist.
- I'd love to see another replay of Stafford's deep pass on the right sideline to Titus Young. It appeared that Young stepped out of bounds prior to catching the pass.
- Nice try by Conte, but he clearly didn't get that one. He should have made a better play on that ball. Stafford got lucky there, just throwing up a prayer right at Conte.
- Too much cushion from Tillman on a second-and-15 play with Conte over the top helping out.
- The defensive line chose a terrible time to go quiet.
- Tim Jennings chose a similarly terrible time to allow Bell to bounce off a tackle and pick up three extra yards.
- Major Wright has to make that play. He did a great job reading Stafford and jumping the pass. But that could be a seven point drop.
- Stafford was so cool and collected during the drive, but really came undone on the second and third down plays. I'd love to know why in the world he decided to throw it away on fourth down. What did he have to lose?
- It feels right that the ugly red zone possession ended with an interception, even if D.J. Moore's pick merely padded his statistics.
Bears Fifth Drive
- I wish we could have skipped those three minutes of time, taken away the Detroit timeouts, and allowed the Bears to go directly to their punt.
- Again, what in the world is Logan doing? It feels like he's trying to turn the ball over again.
Lions Fifth Drive
- Before this drive, I told a friend of mine "I hate that this game will come down to an onside kick." I hope I'm wrong.
- I'm stunned that Stafford needed a full 20 seconds to run the second play after the two minute warning. He seems so comfortable running the hurry-up.
- Israel Idonije looked to have ended the game with a 15-yard sack, but Stafford's pass to Young was really, really impressive, picking up a big first down.
- Nice breakup by Urlacher, reading Pettigrew.
- Yet another tremendous throw by Stafford, hitting Broyles over Jennings and past Conte. Here comes that dreaded onside kick.
- Thank goodness for Earl Bennett. Hanson got a nice hop on his onside attempt, but he got too much depth on it, leaving Bennett 15 yards deep to read the second hop.
I'll have some final thoughts tomorrow. For now, 5-1 sure feels nice!
Monday, October 22, 2012
Bears-Lions Third Quarter Thoughts
Bears First Drive
- Was that a fake return? As Eric Weems ran up the middle, Hester ran toward the sideline. Perhaps they're just giving future opponents something to think about. Maybe Weems and Hester weren't on the same page.
- Wonderful, the return of Chris Spencer.
- Obviously Jay's ribs are going to be a problem. Kyle Adams was wide open. Jay never - never - struggles with throwing power.
- Gabe Carimi is one blown play away from being the next J'Marcus Webb. You know, the guy Cutler yells at for letting himself get killed.
- Welcome back Zack Bowman! High hanging punts allow the coverage unit to get in the return man's face. Logan took his eyes off the ball, allowing Bowman to make a diving scoop.
- Speaking of J'Marcus Webb, he just plowed out an enormous hole for Michael Bush. This defense is inexcusable for Detroit. They have to force Cutler to beat them in the air with his injured body.
- Well, maybe it's inexcusable. I guess Jay is doing alright still, even if that throw to Marshall was a bit behind him.
- Jay just missed Marshall on the slant. He had his favorite target on that play, but rushed the throw and put it in the ground.
- On the next play, when I saw the formation, I thought that a fade to Marshall was a given. there was no safety help as Detroit was sending a blitz, but the play was a stop instead. Detroit showed the same formation on the next play, but the Bears again tried a stop on the goal line, this time to Bennett. It seems that a fade would have been much more sensible.
- A nice high kick from Gould increases the lead.
Lions First Drive
- The Lions offensive line opened a beautiful hole for Leshoure on their first play of the second half. But the run was that much better because Leshoure showed excellent vision on the play, darting back and forth as the downfield space determined. He followed with another strong run before stumbling toward the hole on the next play.
- The Bears need to watch out for a downfield shot here on third-and-one. Instead, Titus Young made a nice grab on a quick slant. Tim Jennings played it well, but that play is very difficult to stop.
- Detroit is doing a great job allowing the aggressive Bears defensive ends to run upfield, past their running backs on slower developing run plays.
- Congratulations to Ryan Broyles on his first career catch. It was a beauty on a seam.
- Strangely the Lions are making hay by calling a variety of running plays. They should stick with it.
- Or Stafford could throw a slant while Young runs a fade.
- Chris Conte is too deep on third-and-two. As it turns out, it didn't particularly matter. Megatron got rather lucky allowing that bullet from Stafford to pass through his hands and into his shoulder. Johnson earned a questionable pass interference call on the next play where Stafford threw very high.
- Tremendous pass breakup by Peanut forces Detroit to run another play from the one.
- Wow! I like the Lions running up the middle there given the success of their running game. And I think Joique Bell is a great story. But why in the world isn't Mikel Leshoure carrying that ball? That's just an awful, awful choice. Bell has to know the situation. You cannot risk the ball being exposed like that on second down from the one. Major Wright did a nice job getting a hand on Bell's foot, and Henry Melton chose a great time to stand up into Bell's arms. The fumbles by Pettigrew were forced; Bell's fumble was just a poor play by the young back.
Bears Second Drive
- False start on the center, eh?
- Chilo Rachal failed to hold his block on a linebacker on Forte's nice five-yard run; a much bigger run was possible had he done so. Spaeth showed Rachal how on the next play, driving his lineman downfield, enabling Forte to dart to the second level.
- Bennett has great hands. I really like him. But there's just something about him that makes him nearly impossible to tackle. It seems that the opposition almost always needs two or three tacklers to bring him down.
- Sadly, Bennett's hand clearly isn't 100%.
- Watching Cutler miss short on passes is confusing.
- Dave Toub's coverage units should be required viewing for any high school special teams player. The coverage is spectacular.
Lions Second Drive
- Stafford's throw to Pettigrew on a dig route was perfect.
- Stafford has that look about him already.
- Of course, his next throw went almost directly to Major Wright, a few yards behind Megatron.
- Brian Urlacher frantically audibled into deep, soft coverage on third-and-three. Stafford wisely chose to deliver a quick pass, but Scheffler had no idea the ball was coming until after it had zoomed past his facemask. Urlacher definitely knew the play, Stafford adjusted, but it didn't appear that Stafford checked to see if Scheffler was on the same page.
- Why in the world did the Lions just punt? They had a fourth-and-three at the Chicago 48. There's no sense not trying to convert.
- Was that a fake return? As Eric Weems ran up the middle, Hester ran toward the sideline. Perhaps they're just giving future opponents something to think about. Maybe Weems and Hester weren't on the same page.
- Wonderful, the return of Chris Spencer.
- Obviously Jay's ribs are going to be a problem. Kyle Adams was wide open. Jay never - never - struggles with throwing power.
- Gabe Carimi is one blown play away from being the next J'Marcus Webb. You know, the guy Cutler yells at for letting himself get killed.
- Welcome back Zack Bowman! High hanging punts allow the coverage unit to get in the return man's face. Logan took his eyes off the ball, allowing Bowman to make a diving scoop.
- Speaking of J'Marcus Webb, he just plowed out an enormous hole for Michael Bush. This defense is inexcusable for Detroit. They have to force Cutler to beat them in the air with his injured body.
- Well, maybe it's inexcusable. I guess Jay is doing alright still, even if that throw to Marshall was a bit behind him.
- Jay just missed Marshall on the slant. He had his favorite target on that play, but rushed the throw and put it in the ground.
- On the next play, when I saw the formation, I thought that a fade to Marshall was a given. there was no safety help as Detroit was sending a blitz, but the play was a stop instead. Detroit showed the same formation on the next play, but the Bears again tried a stop on the goal line, this time to Bennett. It seems that a fade would have been much more sensible.
- A nice high kick from Gould increases the lead.
Lions First Drive
- The Lions offensive line opened a beautiful hole for Leshoure on their first play of the second half. But the run was that much better because Leshoure showed excellent vision on the play, darting back and forth as the downfield space determined. He followed with another strong run before stumbling toward the hole on the next play.
- The Bears need to watch out for a downfield shot here on third-and-one. Instead, Titus Young made a nice grab on a quick slant. Tim Jennings played it well, but that play is very difficult to stop.
- Detroit is doing a great job allowing the aggressive Bears defensive ends to run upfield, past their running backs on slower developing run plays.
- Congratulations to Ryan Broyles on his first career catch. It was a beauty on a seam.
- Strangely the Lions are making hay by calling a variety of running plays. They should stick with it.
- Or Stafford could throw a slant while Young runs a fade.
- Chris Conte is too deep on third-and-two. As it turns out, it didn't particularly matter. Megatron got rather lucky allowing that bullet from Stafford to pass through his hands and into his shoulder. Johnson earned a questionable pass interference call on the next play where Stafford threw very high.
- Tremendous pass breakup by Peanut forces Detroit to run another play from the one.
- Wow! I like the Lions running up the middle there given the success of their running game. And I think Joique Bell is a great story. But why in the world isn't Mikel Leshoure carrying that ball? That's just an awful, awful choice. Bell has to know the situation. You cannot risk the ball being exposed like that on second down from the one. Major Wright did a nice job getting a hand on Bell's foot, and Henry Melton chose a great time to stand up into Bell's arms. The fumbles by Pettigrew were forced; Bell's fumble was just a poor play by the young back.
Bears Second Drive
- False start on the center, eh?
- Chilo Rachal failed to hold his block on a linebacker on Forte's nice five-yard run; a much bigger run was possible had he done so. Spaeth showed Rachal how on the next play, driving his lineman downfield, enabling Forte to dart to the second level.
- Bennett has great hands. I really like him. But there's just something about him that makes him nearly impossible to tackle. It seems that the opposition almost always needs two or three tacklers to bring him down.
- Sadly, Bennett's hand clearly isn't 100%.
- Watching Cutler miss short on passes is confusing.
- Dave Toub's coverage units should be required viewing for any high school special teams player. The coverage is spectacular.
Lions Second Drive
- Stafford's throw to Pettigrew on a dig route was perfect.
- Stafford has that look about him already.
- Of course, his next throw went almost directly to Major Wright, a few yards behind Megatron.
- Brian Urlacher frantically audibled into deep, soft coverage on third-and-three. Stafford wisely chose to deliver a quick pass, but Scheffler had no idea the ball was coming until after it had zoomed past his facemask. Urlacher definitely knew the play, Stafford adjusted, but it didn't appear that Stafford checked to see if Scheffler was on the same page.
- Why in the world did the Lions just punt? They had a fourth-and-three at the Chicago 48. There's no sense not trying to convert.
Bears-Lions Second Quarter Thoughts
Bears Fourth Drive (Continued)
- My brother and I often discuss that the inconsistency of Kellen Davis will likely force the Bears into drafting a tight end this off-season. It seems that Davis still has at least one step backward for every positive step. His physical ability is undeniable, but his production is maddening.
- Cutler was very fortunate not to be intercepted on a risky third-down dump off.
- Podlesh's decent punt was punished by a strange penalty on an unknown Bear.
Lions Fifth Drive
- Taking over at midfield, Detroit needed some yards. A zero yard run on first down obviously doesn't work.
- McClellin and Wootton are just too fast for the Detroit tackles. They rapidly compressed the pocket, enabling the double-teamed Stephen Paea to gobble up an unearned sack.
- The Lions have roughly an average amount of talent for an NFL team. Because of that, they need Matthew Stafford to be an elite quarterback to be an above-average team. I certainly wouldn't suggest that the Lions give up on Stafford who is still just 24 and is currently a slightly above-average signal caller. But misses like that pass to Titus Young cost his team points. He had space with another receiver having drawn Conte out of the middle of the field, but he missed him badly.
Bears Fifth Drive
- Great choice by the Bears going with the hard count on first down. Unfortunately, Lance Louis jumped, but it only cost the team a foot or so.
- I would have considered a quick kick on third-and-10 from inside the one.
- The Lions knew the Bears were going with a quick pass on third down. The Bears didn't disguise it. How Brandon Marshall has that much space I'll never know. Great throw, great run after the catch, great conversion.
- Forte hasn't had much space after the first drive. The Lions safeties and linebackers are doing a nice job pursuing the back.
- That horse collar call was a poor one. It doesn't address another strong run-and-catch from Marshall.
- It's clear that Devin Hester is not Alshon Jeffery. Cutler misses the big-bodied receiver.
- Strong vision from Forte turned a one or two yard run into an eight-yard gain.
- The Lions may have the worst secondary in the NFL. Alphonso Smith is going to be overmatched by many NFL receivers. Against Brandon Marshall, Smith has virtually no chance.
- Gabe Carimi appeared to get beat terribly, but it's acceptable to get beat by a rusher who leaves before the snap.
- Kyle Adams and Lance Louis did a nice job getting out in front of Forte to provide some space. But Matt Spaeth made that five-yard run, taking Kyle Vanden Bosch all the way across the formation and away from Forte. Tremendous block by Spaeth.
- Unfortunately the next play was run right into a blitz. That tends not to work.
- Jay had one chance to make a play on the third down blitz. The blitz pickup was strong, but the coverage was excellent. Cutler was lucky to avoid a fumble there.
- Unfortunately, it didn't matter. Adam Podlesh had a tough time getting the hold down, but Gould's pretty clean kick was nonetheless rejected at the line by Lawrence Jackson. There goes his perfect season. An unprosperous end to an otherwise great drive.
Lions Sixth Drive
- A nice throw by Stafford on first down sets up an easily convertible second-and-one. Stafford made a nice, safe throw to get things going.
- But the linebackers and left defensive line made a wall that enabled the truly fast McClellin to make a great play from the backside.
- Lance Briggs did his best Peanut Tillman breaking up a third-down pass to Nate Burleson by punching out the recently caught ball.
- Love Smith got away with one there. The officials absolutely should have charged him with a timeout or a challenge for delaying the snap of the Lions punt while checking to see if Burleson's drop was really a fumble.
- It's strange to see any non-Hester Bear return a punt. While I'm generally plenty happy with Bennett getting a handful of return chances, I'd rather not expose him to big hits in his first game back from a hand injury.
Bears Sixth Drive
- And there goes the season. Suh is so powerful that every play he makes looks brutally violent. I'm reminded of Suh's shouldn't-have-been-penalized hit on Cutler in Detroit in 2010 where Suh took Cutler down with his forearm. Suh is just a great talent, the kind of player who can ruin a season.
- Seeing Cutler return is immediately the best play of this game for the Bears. And the most surprising.
- What a punt from Podlesh. Perfectly angled, high, deep. Just a great kick. I do wonder if Suh's big play can inspire the Detroit offense to a few big plays here.
Lions Seventh Drive
- The Lions have now put the ball on the ground twice in two possessions, though both went out of bounds. It seems likely that one fumble will stay on the pitch at some point.
- Stafford made a great, aware, athletic play to make a nice run.
- Then Pettigrew loses it again. Sheesh. Twice in three plays for Peanut.
- Then a great play call gashed a cleared out middle of the Bears defense.
- Stafford wisely held onto the ball on a quick screen call, running quickly for a five-yard gain. It was another very smart play by the quarterback who has his offense in a dangerous rhythm for the Chicago defense.
- I have no idea why Urlacher wasn't called for unsportsmanlike conduct after holding Tony Scheffler down for a few seconds after the tight end's first down grab before the two minute warning. Had that been any other player, I imagine a flag would have been thrown.
- Stafford wisely dumped off to Leshoure on first down in the teeth of good pressure.
- I don't understand calling for a run on the next play. Stafford's short passes had been carving up the Bears defense. Stafford was in a groove. Even had Leshoure not fumbled, it was a poor call.
- But credit where credit is due. Briggs had no business recovering that fumble, but he fought for the ball while laying on the ground with Leshoure on top of him. I'd like to think that my earlier comment about the Lions leaving a fumble on the playing surface was particularly prescient, but the combination of poor ball security by Detroit and turnover-seeking defense by the Bears made that inevitable.
Bears Seventh Drive
- Strange to see Cutler come back for one play, then head to the locker room. Hopefully he isn't seriously injured.
- I absolutely hate the Bears running a lazy hurry-up. What's the purpose of running the second down play with 25 seconds left on the play clock if you're going to run a draw on second-and-11? That's horrendous clock management by Lovie that I hope doesn't hurt the team.
- Thankfully Matt Forte completely bailed out Smith.
FIRST HALF THOUGHTS
The Bears defense looks every bit as good as they have all year. The front four has gotten solid pressure on Stafford, only allowing him to sit in a secure pocket on two or three occasions thus far. Detroit gave away a scoring chance with the Leshoure fumble, as did the Bears by allowing penetration on Gould's second field goal attempt.
I don't understand why the Lions haven't been running a no huddle offense. Stafford runs it beautifully and he did so at the end of the first half. Then they made a terrible choice to run up the gut but got punished much more severely than they deserved. The Detroit defensive front has been strong, but their defensive backfield has been terrible. If Jay Cutler or even Jason Campbell can continue to attack the Detroit secondary, the Bears should be able to maintain their lead.
Here's the thing about playing the Lions: once the fourth quarter shows up, Detroit will absolutely run their two minute offense and move the ball effectively. Therefore, it is imperative to build a sizable lead so the Bears defensive backs can take some chances on intercepting passes. If it's a tight game, the fourth quarter still favors Detroit given their experience with comebacks, big-armed quarterback, and monster receiver.
- My brother and I often discuss that the inconsistency of Kellen Davis will likely force the Bears into drafting a tight end this off-season. It seems that Davis still has at least one step backward for every positive step. His physical ability is undeniable, but his production is maddening.
- Cutler was very fortunate not to be intercepted on a risky third-down dump off.
- Podlesh's decent punt was punished by a strange penalty on an unknown Bear.
Lions Fifth Drive
- Taking over at midfield, Detroit needed some yards. A zero yard run on first down obviously doesn't work.
- McClellin and Wootton are just too fast for the Detroit tackles. They rapidly compressed the pocket, enabling the double-teamed Stephen Paea to gobble up an unearned sack.
- The Lions have roughly an average amount of talent for an NFL team. Because of that, they need Matthew Stafford to be an elite quarterback to be an above-average team. I certainly wouldn't suggest that the Lions give up on Stafford who is still just 24 and is currently a slightly above-average signal caller. But misses like that pass to Titus Young cost his team points. He had space with another receiver having drawn Conte out of the middle of the field, but he missed him badly.
Bears Fifth Drive
- Great choice by the Bears going with the hard count on first down. Unfortunately, Lance Louis jumped, but it only cost the team a foot or so.
- I would have considered a quick kick on third-and-10 from inside the one.
- The Lions knew the Bears were going with a quick pass on third down. The Bears didn't disguise it. How Brandon Marshall has that much space I'll never know. Great throw, great run after the catch, great conversion.
- Forte hasn't had much space after the first drive. The Lions safeties and linebackers are doing a nice job pursuing the back.
- That horse collar call was a poor one. It doesn't address another strong run-and-catch from Marshall.
- It's clear that Devin Hester is not Alshon Jeffery. Cutler misses the big-bodied receiver.
- Strong vision from Forte turned a one or two yard run into an eight-yard gain.
- The Lions may have the worst secondary in the NFL. Alphonso Smith is going to be overmatched by many NFL receivers. Against Brandon Marshall, Smith has virtually no chance.
- Gabe Carimi appeared to get beat terribly, but it's acceptable to get beat by a rusher who leaves before the snap.
- Kyle Adams and Lance Louis did a nice job getting out in front of Forte to provide some space. But Matt Spaeth made that five-yard run, taking Kyle Vanden Bosch all the way across the formation and away from Forte. Tremendous block by Spaeth.
- Unfortunately the next play was run right into a blitz. That tends not to work.
- Jay had one chance to make a play on the third down blitz. The blitz pickup was strong, but the coverage was excellent. Cutler was lucky to avoid a fumble there.
- Unfortunately, it didn't matter. Adam Podlesh had a tough time getting the hold down, but Gould's pretty clean kick was nonetheless rejected at the line by Lawrence Jackson. There goes his perfect season. An unprosperous end to an otherwise great drive.
Lions Sixth Drive
- A nice throw by Stafford on first down sets up an easily convertible second-and-one. Stafford made a nice, safe throw to get things going.
- But the linebackers and left defensive line made a wall that enabled the truly fast McClellin to make a great play from the backside.
- Lance Briggs did his best Peanut Tillman breaking up a third-down pass to Nate Burleson by punching out the recently caught ball.
- Love Smith got away with one there. The officials absolutely should have charged him with a timeout or a challenge for delaying the snap of the Lions punt while checking to see if Burleson's drop was really a fumble.
- It's strange to see any non-Hester Bear return a punt. While I'm generally plenty happy with Bennett getting a handful of return chances, I'd rather not expose him to big hits in his first game back from a hand injury.
Bears Sixth Drive
- And there goes the season. Suh is so powerful that every play he makes looks brutally violent. I'm reminded of Suh's shouldn't-have-been-penalized hit on Cutler in Detroit in 2010 where Suh took Cutler down with his forearm. Suh is just a great talent, the kind of player who can ruin a season.
- Seeing Cutler return is immediately the best play of this game for the Bears. And the most surprising.
- What a punt from Podlesh. Perfectly angled, high, deep. Just a great kick. I do wonder if Suh's big play can inspire the Detroit offense to a few big plays here.
Lions Seventh Drive
- The Lions have now put the ball on the ground twice in two possessions, though both went out of bounds. It seems likely that one fumble will stay on the pitch at some point.
- Stafford made a great, aware, athletic play to make a nice run.
- Then Pettigrew loses it again. Sheesh. Twice in three plays for Peanut.
- Then a great play call gashed a cleared out middle of the Bears defense.
- Stafford wisely held onto the ball on a quick screen call, running quickly for a five-yard gain. It was another very smart play by the quarterback who has his offense in a dangerous rhythm for the Chicago defense.
- I have no idea why Urlacher wasn't called for unsportsmanlike conduct after holding Tony Scheffler down for a few seconds after the tight end's first down grab before the two minute warning. Had that been any other player, I imagine a flag would have been thrown.
- Stafford wisely dumped off to Leshoure on first down in the teeth of good pressure.
- I don't understand calling for a run on the next play. Stafford's short passes had been carving up the Bears defense. Stafford was in a groove. Even had Leshoure not fumbled, it was a poor call.
- But credit where credit is due. Briggs had no business recovering that fumble, but he fought for the ball while laying on the ground with Leshoure on top of him. I'd like to think that my earlier comment about the Lions leaving a fumble on the playing surface was particularly prescient, but the combination of poor ball security by Detroit and turnover-seeking defense by the Bears made that inevitable.
Bears Seventh Drive
- Strange to see Cutler come back for one play, then head to the locker room. Hopefully he isn't seriously injured.
- I absolutely hate the Bears running a lazy hurry-up. What's the purpose of running the second down play with 25 seconds left on the play clock if you're going to run a draw on second-and-11? That's horrendous clock management by Lovie that I hope doesn't hurt the team.
- Thankfully Matt Forte completely bailed out Smith.
FIRST HALF THOUGHTS
The Bears defense looks every bit as good as they have all year. The front four has gotten solid pressure on Stafford, only allowing him to sit in a secure pocket on two or three occasions thus far. Detroit gave away a scoring chance with the Leshoure fumble, as did the Bears by allowing penetration on Gould's second field goal attempt.
I don't understand why the Lions haven't been running a no huddle offense. Stafford runs it beautifully and he did so at the end of the first half. Then they made a terrible choice to run up the gut but got punished much more severely than they deserved. The Detroit defensive front has been strong, but their defensive backfield has been terrible. If Jay Cutler or even Jason Campbell can continue to attack the Detroit secondary, the Bears should be able to maintain their lead.
Here's the thing about playing the Lions: once the fourth quarter shows up, Detroit will absolutely run their two minute offense and move the ball effectively. Therefore, it is imperative to build a sizable lead so the Bears defensive backs can take some chances on intercepting passes. If it's a tight game, the fourth quarter still favors Detroit given their experience with comebacks, big-armed quarterback, and monster receiver.
Bears-Lions First Quarter Thoughts
Lions First Drive
- Three-and-out. That's how we do it. Nice start for Peanut.
- But we're fortunate that Calvin Johnson couldn't make that third down play.
- When the Lions last played the Bears in November 2011, Devin Hester followed a 29-yard punt return with an 80-yard punt return touchdown. If the first punt is any indication, Nick Harris isn't going to give Hester a chance to beat his team. If that's the case, the Bears need to take advantage of favorable field position.
Bears First Drive
- I love that Cutler can audible, but clearly the Lions showed him a formation that confused Jay on the first two running plays.
- Excellent scramble by Jay on third-and-long to pick up the Bears initial first down.
- Another excellent job by Jay to evade Cliff Avril on the next play-action play. Jay's ability to get back to the line enabled the offense to have more flexibility on second down.
- Taking advantage of that flexibility, Mike Tice was able to call for a run on second-and-10. Lance Louis cleared out an enormous hole for Matt Forte, spinning his man out of the way, giving Forte the ability to hit the hole in a dead sprint. Kyle Vanden Bosch overpursued on the outside, giving Forte daylight. For as good a back as Matt Forte, that's just too easy.
- Then that touchdown. Just beautiful. An excellent play by Cutler and a good release by Marshall. The Bears ran only five plays on that 59-yard scoring drive. Five of those plays included running action to the left side of the formation with play action twice and actual runs three times, although Forte cut back two of the runs to the right side. Of those 59 yards, only seven came through the air on the touchdown to Marshall.
Lions Second Drive
- Reilly Reiff's cut block on Julius Peppers hurt my knees. Great block that sprang Mikel Leshoure.
- An excellent tackle by Tillman on the next play, setting up second-and-10 after a completion on a swing pass.
- After an unfortunate timeout call by the Bears offset a blown up run, Urlacher makes a perfect play on a blitz, swatting down a dump off.
- When the Bears defense forces third-and-long, it generally won't go well for the offense. While Urlacher and Briggs both showed a blitz in Stafford's face, Chris Conte's blitz destroyed the play, forcing Stafford into a risky soft toss in the flat to Joique Bell. Bell did a nice job securing the ball and getting a few yards. But that position won't work for Detroit.
Bears Second Drive
- Cutler's second down pass to Earl Bennett nearly hit the ground. The delayed timing killed the play.
- Then Cutler goes back to an open Bennett on third down, making an excellent read and delivering a beautiful ball. The protection was strong with only Cliff Avril coming around the end of the formation toward Cutler. Avril wasn't close to making a play on the quarterback.
- Even though Cutler wasn't close to connecting with Brandon Marshall on a downfield through on second down, the protection was again excellent. Lance Louis lost a step to Ndamukong Suh at the snap, but moved his feet well to force Suh off of his path to Cutler, giving Jay a pocket in which to step up.
- Cutler can't blame Tice for that third down timeout. Seems pretty clear that Jay didn't like something he saw. Hopefully burning the timeout results in a conversion.
- Unfortunately the Detroit defensive line collapsed the pocket quickly, forcing a quick dump off to Forte.
- Punter Adam Podlesh hit a clunker of a punt. He needed a better effort there punting from his own 46.
Lions Third Drive
- Corey Wootton made an important stop on Leshoure's first down run. The Detroit offensive line opened a huge hole for the back; had Wootton missed the tackle, Leshoure had space.
- ESPN had a nice angle of Major Wright blowing up the second down run, sealing the corner and forcing Leshoure back inside.
- Detroit inexplicably decided not to even chip Shea McClellin on third down. McClellin cannot overpower NFL offensive tackles and he likely can't even overpower most NFL tight ends yet. I wonder if there was miscommunication between the left tackle and tight end. McClellin is quick and he forced Stafford into the grasp of Julius Peppers.
Bears Third Drive
- Weak call on Gabe Carimi.
- Cutler's athleticism shines again. However, that was a bogus penalty call on Corey Williams. I must have missed the rule where a defensive player cannot hit a blocker in between that defensive player and the ball carrier. The hit didn't appear to be late. It did follow a decleater by Bennett.
- DeAndre Levy saved a big play on third down. Levy was too quick for Chilo Rachal on a screen and forced a field goal try.
- No kicker is automatic, not even Robbie Gould. His kick was sound, but Suh nearly swatted the ball.
Lions Fourth Drive
- Great protection by the Lions on first and second down. Major Wright absolutely has to make a better play on Stafford's second-down overthrow.
- Absolutely superb effort from Peanut Tillman manning up Megatron on a slow-developing third down play.
- Nice punt from Harris. But Hester really messed up on that punt, failing to catch a punt he should have rather easily handled. It cost him 10 yards.
Bears Fourth Drive
- Nice contain by Chris Houston.
- Three-and-out. That's how we do it. Nice start for Peanut.
- But we're fortunate that Calvin Johnson couldn't make that third down play.
- When the Lions last played the Bears in November 2011, Devin Hester followed a 29-yard punt return with an 80-yard punt return touchdown. If the first punt is any indication, Nick Harris isn't going to give Hester a chance to beat his team. If that's the case, the Bears need to take advantage of favorable field position.
Bears First Drive
- I love that Cutler can audible, but clearly the Lions showed him a formation that confused Jay on the first two running plays.
- Excellent scramble by Jay on third-and-long to pick up the Bears initial first down.
- Another excellent job by Jay to evade Cliff Avril on the next play-action play. Jay's ability to get back to the line enabled the offense to have more flexibility on second down.
- Taking advantage of that flexibility, Mike Tice was able to call for a run on second-and-10. Lance Louis cleared out an enormous hole for Matt Forte, spinning his man out of the way, giving Forte the ability to hit the hole in a dead sprint. Kyle Vanden Bosch overpursued on the outside, giving Forte daylight. For as good a back as Matt Forte, that's just too easy.
- Then that touchdown. Just beautiful. An excellent play by Cutler and a good release by Marshall. The Bears ran only five plays on that 59-yard scoring drive. Five of those plays included running action to the left side of the formation with play action twice and actual runs three times, although Forte cut back two of the runs to the right side. Of those 59 yards, only seven came through the air on the touchdown to Marshall.
Lions Second Drive
- Reilly Reiff's cut block on Julius Peppers hurt my knees. Great block that sprang Mikel Leshoure.
- An excellent tackle by Tillman on the next play, setting up second-and-10 after a completion on a swing pass.
- After an unfortunate timeout call by the Bears offset a blown up run, Urlacher makes a perfect play on a blitz, swatting down a dump off.
- When the Bears defense forces third-and-long, it generally won't go well for the offense. While Urlacher and Briggs both showed a blitz in Stafford's face, Chris Conte's blitz destroyed the play, forcing Stafford into a risky soft toss in the flat to Joique Bell. Bell did a nice job securing the ball and getting a few yards. But that position won't work for Detroit.
Bears Second Drive
- Cutler's second down pass to Earl Bennett nearly hit the ground. The delayed timing killed the play.
- Then Cutler goes back to an open Bennett on third down, making an excellent read and delivering a beautiful ball. The protection was strong with only Cliff Avril coming around the end of the formation toward Cutler. Avril wasn't close to making a play on the quarterback.
- Even though Cutler wasn't close to connecting with Brandon Marshall on a downfield through on second down, the protection was again excellent. Lance Louis lost a step to Ndamukong Suh at the snap, but moved his feet well to force Suh off of his path to Cutler, giving Jay a pocket in which to step up.
- Cutler can't blame Tice for that third down timeout. Seems pretty clear that Jay didn't like something he saw. Hopefully burning the timeout results in a conversion.
- Unfortunately the Detroit defensive line collapsed the pocket quickly, forcing a quick dump off to Forte.
- Punter Adam Podlesh hit a clunker of a punt. He needed a better effort there punting from his own 46.
Lions Third Drive
- Corey Wootton made an important stop on Leshoure's first down run. The Detroit offensive line opened a huge hole for the back; had Wootton missed the tackle, Leshoure had space.
- ESPN had a nice angle of Major Wright blowing up the second down run, sealing the corner and forcing Leshoure back inside.
- Detroit inexplicably decided not to even chip Shea McClellin on third down. McClellin cannot overpower NFL offensive tackles and he likely can't even overpower most NFL tight ends yet. I wonder if there was miscommunication between the left tackle and tight end. McClellin is quick and he forced Stafford into the grasp of Julius Peppers.
Bears Third Drive
- Weak call on Gabe Carimi.
- Cutler's athleticism shines again. However, that was a bogus penalty call on Corey Williams. I must have missed the rule where a defensive player cannot hit a blocker in between that defensive player and the ball carrier. The hit didn't appear to be late. It did follow a decleater by Bennett.
- DeAndre Levy saved a big play on third down. Levy was too quick for Chilo Rachal on a screen and forced a field goal try.
- No kicker is automatic, not even Robbie Gould. His kick was sound, but Suh nearly swatted the ball.
Lions Fourth Drive
- Great protection by the Lions on first and second down. Major Wright absolutely has to make a better play on Stafford's second-down overthrow.
- Absolutely superb effort from Peanut Tillman manning up Megatron on a slow-developing third down play.
- Nice punt from Harris. But Hester really messed up on that punt, failing to catch a punt he should have rather easily handled. It cost him 10 yards.
Bears Fourth Drive
- Nice contain by Chris Houston.
Sunday, October 21, 2012
The Bizarre Ending in Tampa
For anyone who has not heard about the ending of the Saints-Buccaneers clash today, you missed a thrilling conclusion. Taking over in his own end with just under two minutes remaining and trailing 35-28, Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman led an impressive drive down the field, eventually finding his team at the New Orleans nine with six seconds left. On the game's final play, Freeman hung in the pocket, bought himself some time by rolling out left, then fired a dart to an open Mike Williams in the back of the endzone for the game-tying touchdown (PAT pending).
But it was not to be.
So as to make this as useful as possible, here's a quick rundown of what happened on the game's final play. WR Williams was lined up on the left side of the formation. At the snap, he ran up the sideline on the left side of the field, reaching the back corner of the endzone. Freeman took the snap, hanging in the pocket for between two and three seconds before rolling out to the left side. After Freeman had left the pocket on his way toward the left sideline, Williams was pushed out of bounds in the back of the endzone by the New Orleans cornerback. Williams gathered himself, immediately reentered the endzone, and took roughly four steps in the endzone prior to catching the pass from Freeman.
The officials flagged Williams for going out of bounds, then being the first player to touch the pass. Because the play ended with an offensive penalty and no time remained on the clock after its completion, the game ended.
Was the result correct? Yes. Let's take a look at the rules just to make sure.
First, as we saw in our look at pass interference on a tipped pass under Rule 8, Section 5, Article 1, the window for defensive pass interference opens when the quarterback releases a pass and closes when the ball is touched. Here, pass interference did not apply as the New Orleans cornerback contacted Williams well before Freeman threw the pass.
Next, we look to the penalty that was actually called. Rule 8, Section 1, Article 6 addresses ineligible receivers. Subsection (d) explains that an eligible receiver who has been out of bounds prior to or during a pass is ineligible, regardless of whether he has reestablished himself in bounds. There is an exception to the rule: if the player is forced out by a foul by a defender, reestablishing himself inbounds makes the receiver eligible again. Then, Article 8 explains that there is a five-yard penalty for illegal touching of a forward pass. Subsection (b) tells that it is an illegal touch when a pass is first touched by an eligible receiver who has gone out of bounds, either of his own volition or by being legally forced out of bounds, and has reestablished himself inbounds. Here, Williams decidedly was forced out of bounds by a defensive player. However, the rule is clear that he is only eligible to catch the pass if he was forced out because of a defensive penalty. As mentioned above, pass interference is not an option.
What about illegal contact? Let's examine the relatively new illegal contact penalty and its possible application here. Rule 8, Section 4 discusses a variety of regimes in terms of what contact is legal depending on how close the contact occurs to the line of scrimmage. Here, we are only concerned with Article 3 which addresses illegal contact beyond the five-yard zone (contact within that zone is commonly known as a "chuck"). Article 3 explains that, if the player who receives the snap remains in the pocket with the ball, a defender may use his hands only to defend himself against impending contact caused by a receiver. It's clear that the New Orleans defender initiated contact with Williams. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, Article 7 unequivocally conveys that "if the quarterback leaves the pocket area with the ball in his possession, the restrictions on illegal contact...end, but the restriction on defensive holding remains in effect." While Williams was forced out with contact, he was not held. Thus, Freeman's leaving the pocket rendered the illegal contact violation null. Williams was legally forced out of bounds and illegally touched the ball when he caught the apparent game-tying score.
It's an unfortunate result for the Buccaneers, a squad that still has trips to Minnesota, Denver, and New Orleans in addition to two dates with the undefeated Falcons. To remain relevant, they absolutely needed a win today. An intelligent application of the rules by the officials effectively snuffed out any hope they had left.
But it was not to be.
So as to make this as useful as possible, here's a quick rundown of what happened on the game's final play. WR Williams was lined up on the left side of the formation. At the snap, he ran up the sideline on the left side of the field, reaching the back corner of the endzone. Freeman took the snap, hanging in the pocket for between two and three seconds before rolling out to the left side. After Freeman had left the pocket on his way toward the left sideline, Williams was pushed out of bounds in the back of the endzone by the New Orleans cornerback. Williams gathered himself, immediately reentered the endzone, and took roughly four steps in the endzone prior to catching the pass from Freeman.
The officials flagged Williams for going out of bounds, then being the first player to touch the pass. Because the play ended with an offensive penalty and no time remained on the clock after its completion, the game ended.
Was the result correct? Yes. Let's take a look at the rules just to make sure.
First, as we saw in our look at pass interference on a tipped pass under Rule 8, Section 5, Article 1, the window for defensive pass interference opens when the quarterback releases a pass and closes when the ball is touched. Here, pass interference did not apply as the New Orleans cornerback contacted Williams well before Freeman threw the pass.
Next, we look to the penalty that was actually called. Rule 8, Section 1, Article 6 addresses ineligible receivers. Subsection (d) explains that an eligible receiver who has been out of bounds prior to or during a pass is ineligible, regardless of whether he has reestablished himself in bounds. There is an exception to the rule: if the player is forced out by a foul by a defender, reestablishing himself inbounds makes the receiver eligible again. Then, Article 8 explains that there is a five-yard penalty for illegal touching of a forward pass. Subsection (b) tells that it is an illegal touch when a pass is first touched by an eligible receiver who has gone out of bounds, either of his own volition or by being legally forced out of bounds, and has reestablished himself inbounds. Here, Williams decidedly was forced out of bounds by a defensive player. However, the rule is clear that he is only eligible to catch the pass if he was forced out because of a defensive penalty. As mentioned above, pass interference is not an option.
What about illegal contact? Let's examine the relatively new illegal contact penalty and its possible application here. Rule 8, Section 4 discusses a variety of regimes in terms of what contact is legal depending on how close the contact occurs to the line of scrimmage. Here, we are only concerned with Article 3 which addresses illegal contact beyond the five-yard zone (contact within that zone is commonly known as a "chuck"). Article 3 explains that, if the player who receives the snap remains in the pocket with the ball, a defender may use his hands only to defend himself against impending contact caused by a receiver. It's clear that the New Orleans defender initiated contact with Williams. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, Article 7 unequivocally conveys that "if the quarterback leaves the pocket area with the ball in his possession, the restrictions on illegal contact...end, but the restriction on defensive holding remains in effect." While Williams was forced out with contact, he was not held. Thus, Freeman's leaving the pocket rendered the illegal contact violation null. Williams was legally forced out of bounds and illegally touched the ball when he caught the apparent game-tying score.
It's an unfortunate result for the Buccaneers, a squad that still has trips to Minnesota, Denver, and New Orleans in addition to two dates with the undefeated Falcons. To remain relevant, they absolutely needed a win today. An intelligent application of the rules by the officials effectively snuffed out any hope they had left.
Friday, October 19, 2012
Big Ten Power Rankings - Mid-Season
I gave my basic understanding of power rankings in the NFL post. A very brief recap: power rankings should give you a sense for how well a team should do in a given contest, not what their record is so far in a given season. For example, through two games, Indiana was 2-0 while Penn State was 0-2. Given only their records, one would assume that Indiana would handle Penn State head-to-head. Power rankings tell a different story, one that gives us a sense of how good a team actually is. Here's my take on the Big Ten teams at the approximate midpoint of the college football season.
1. Ohio State (7-0, 3-0). The Buckeyes have made it clear: even if they're the class of the Big Ten this year, they're simply not going to win pretty. Since obliterating Miami (OH) in their opener, Ohio State struggled to put away Central Florida, needed a horribly botched coverage by Cal on a late-game third-and-long to escape, got past Alabama-Birmingham, won in East Lansing by one, allowed an embarrassing 38 points at home versus Nebraska, and then turned in their worst performance versus Indiana - a 52-49 victory - since the schools tied....in 1990. Still, winning matters and Ohio State has the conference's best two conference wins so far this year over Michigan State and Nebraska. Braxton Miller has proved to be the explosive force many envisioned when he committed to the program, and the rushing attack has been explosive. The defense needs a ton of work, but with the kind of offensive firepower the club has exhibited, they can get away with allowing some points.
Ohio State should have no trouble handling Purdue this weekend. However, the Ineligibowl at Penn State the following weekend could be the (albeit very confusing) game of the year in the conference. If Ohio State beats Penn State, they should head to Madison at 10-0 before hosting Michigan in the finale.
2. Penn State (4-2, 2-0). When Sam Ficken missed his fourth field goal in a devastating one-point loss to Virginia in Week Two, many observers punted on the Nittany Lions season. Since that contest, the club has turned in a run of spirited performances that have turned the season around. Led by All-American-caliber linebacking duo Michael Mauti and Gerald Hodges, the Penn State defense has weathered a miserable off-season to produce excellent results. The loss to Ohio looks better every week (the Bobcats are 7-0), and senior quarterback Matt McGloin has turned from Big Ten laughing stock to respectable starter. It has been a truly incredible turn of events that has new boss Bill O'Brien neck and neck with Urban Meyer for Coach of the Year honors. At this juncture, I wonder if Silas Redd, Justin Brown, and Anthony Fera would be interested in coming back to Happy Valley.
The schedule the rest of the way includes plenty of winnable games. After a trip to the nightmare that is Kinnick Stadium, Penn State hosts Ohio State, enjoys back-to-back trips to Purdue and Nebraska, then closes the season returning home for Indiana and Wisconsin. Any win total between six and nine makes sense. For now, the defense looks good enough to carry the team.
3. Michigan (4-2, 2-0). At this point, I still feel like we don't know too terribly much about this Michigan team. They were unsurprisingly obliterated by an elite Alabama team. They struggled to beat Air Force at home, hardly an embarrassing result against a solid Falcons squad. They crushed Massachusetts. Then they played a turnover-filled contest in South Bend, ultimately losing an ugly 13-6 game to a strong Irish team. Since then, they have outscored Purdue and Illinois 89-13. It's clear that Michigan has the ability to produce a great season; it's also clear that they're not an elite squad. It's also clear that the losing records of the Rich Rodriguez regime are a thing of the past. Denard Robinson has produced a number of beautiful plays, but was completely overmatched against Alabama and turned the ball over five times versus Notre Dame.
We'll know how to rate this Michigan team 10 days from now, after they host Michigan State and travel to Lincoln. If they win both of those games, they should head to Columbus with a top-10 ranking. We'll also know where to rate Robinson in Michigan lore after the next month and a half.
4. Nebraska (4-2, 1-1). Nebraska played a patsy non-conference schedule. Their only decent opponent - UCLA - beat the Huskers. Since then, they enjoyed a tremendous comeback versus Wisconsin, then were blasted for 63 in Columbus. Nebraska has the look of a good team that is truly volatile. Because they miss Illinois, Indiana, and Purdue, they play easily the Big Ten's toughest conference schedule with only a date against a vastly improved Minnesota squad as a reliably likely win. The Nebraska offense has not struggled in the slightest. But the defense just does not resemble the blackshirt defenses of old.
5. Wisconsin (5-2, 2-1). Wisconsin's dreadful start to the season look a whole lot different in mid-October. Squeaking past Northern Iowa is still poor, but losing in Corvalis to Oregon State by three looks just fine as the Beavers are undefeated. Even Utah State looks strong with only a two-point loss to Wisconsin and a three-point loss at Brigham Young. Wisconsin has taken care of business versus Illinois and Purdue and positioned themselves nicely to turn in a solid season. Their lack of a quarterback - both Danny O'Brien and Joel Stave have thrown at least 75 passes - could cripple them however.
6. Michigan State (4-3, 1-2). Easily the conference's most disappointing team. They opened the year with a solid, conservative win over Boise State. Unfortunately, that set the tone for the season more than many expected. The passing offense is yet to click and there is plenty of blame to spread around. New quarterback Andrew Maxwell has left Spartan fans pining for Kirk Cousins. Established, reliable receivers like BJ Cunningham, Keshawn Martin and even Keith Nichol are nowhere to be found. The new batch of receivers has been terribly inconsistent, save for big tight end Dion Sims. Le'Veon Bell has produced in a way that reminds many of former workhorse back Javon Ringer, but the lack of a passing attack has allowed opposing defenses to focus on Bell.
Michigan State absolutely must find a way to win at least one of their next three contests at Michigan, at Wisconsin, and home for Nebraska. Thankfully, their defense has produced a strong season and should keep them in every game going forward.
7. Northwestern (6-1, 2-1). Despite an inconsistent aerial attack, Northwestern's ability to run the ball has propelled the team to an excellent start. Although their BCS-conference slate features the worst of those conference (Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Boston College), Northwestern nonetheless swept their non-conference foes. They handled Big Ten cellar-dwellers Indiana and Minnesota behind versatile leader Kain Colter and stud runner Venric Mark. Thei only loss required three fourth quarter touchdowns from Penn State. They are unlikely to be favored in their next four games ahead of the season-ending clash with Illinois, but Northwestern has finally done exactly what they needed to in advance of the conference schedule.
Thing is, for the first time in many, many years, Northwestern is winning because of their defense, not in spite of it. If the defense continues to perform, the Wildcats could reach eight or nine wins.
8. Iowa (4-2, 2-0). The Hawkeyes would be much, much higher on this list had they not crumbled at home in the final minute versus Central Michigan. Excepting that game, they beat Northern Illinois at a neutral site, lost a tough rivalry game versus Iowa State, beat Northern Iowa and Minnesota at home by multiple scores, and enjoyed a road win at Michigan State.
But choking at home against Central Michigan simply cannot happen. Iowa is definitely good enough to compete in every remaining game they have. Then again, they are shaky enough that bowl eligibility is still a serious question.
9. Purdue (3-3, 0-2). The Boilermakers were a trendy pick before the season to make some serious noise this year. In their non-conference games, Purdue looked strong. They crushed their sub-par competition and played Notre Dame tight to the final gun. However, their first two Big Ten contests have been miserable home flops versus Michigan and Wisconsin. Their defense was strong before their bye week, but they have given up 41 points per game since then. Robert Marve deserves kudos for his toughness in playing through a torn ACL, but the quarterback play of Marve and Caleb TerBush has been only adequate. The offense seems to lack an identity, something that is crippling an otherwise promising season.
They only have two home games remaining; while they should handle Indiana in their finale, Penn State will be tough for them. They're a near-lock to lose this weekend in Columbus, and while they could win any of their other three road contests (Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois), it would hardly be stunning to see them at home in December.
10. Minnesota (4-2, 0-2). Despite needing triple overtime at UNLV, Minnesota took care of business, running the table in the non-conference portion of their schedule. Marqueis Gray has played strong football, both running and passing effectively. And Max Shortell has filled in nicely for Gray at quarterback. Although they lost in Iowa City and home versus Northwestern, there's still a chance that they can find two more wins and prolong their season. Even if they don't win another game, they'll have their best record since 2009. Here's hoping Jerry Kill's seizure issues don't prevent him from coaching the rest of the way and the team responds to his inspirational leadership.
11. Indiana (2-4, 0-3). Indiana is most likely on its way to another dreadful record. But this record just won't feel the same as some of those in the past. They lost by two versus Ball State and 15 at Northwestern. However, they played two of their best games in many years with both Michigan State and Ohio State needing big second halves to escape with tight victories. If they can play with that type of enthusiasm the rest of the way, the Hoosiers could get to four or fine wins. They will continue to have to overcome a talent gap in their remaining contests, but they should be commended for playing with such resilience.
12. Illinois (2-5, 0-3). Illinois has basically been the antithesis of Indiana. Their only wins are home games over Western Michigan and Charleston Southern. They were crushed by non-conference foes Arizona State and Louisiana Tech. Continuing that trend, they have been outscored 111-21 in three Big Ten match-ups against Penn State, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Should they continue along this path, first-year coach Tim Beckman may need to start worrying about whether he will survive his new contract.
To be fair, the schedule does get much more forgiving the rest of the way. All five losses so far have come to teams ranked in the top 40 of Jeff Sagarin's college football ratings. Conversely, only one remaining opponent - Ohio State - is inside the top 40.
1. Ohio State (7-0, 3-0). The Buckeyes have made it clear: even if they're the class of the Big Ten this year, they're simply not going to win pretty. Since obliterating Miami (OH) in their opener, Ohio State struggled to put away Central Florida, needed a horribly botched coverage by Cal on a late-game third-and-long to escape, got past Alabama-Birmingham, won in East Lansing by one, allowed an embarrassing 38 points at home versus Nebraska, and then turned in their worst performance versus Indiana - a 52-49 victory - since the schools tied....in 1990. Still, winning matters and Ohio State has the conference's best two conference wins so far this year over Michigan State and Nebraska. Braxton Miller has proved to be the explosive force many envisioned when he committed to the program, and the rushing attack has been explosive. The defense needs a ton of work, but with the kind of offensive firepower the club has exhibited, they can get away with allowing some points.
Ohio State should have no trouble handling Purdue this weekend. However, the Ineligibowl at Penn State the following weekend could be the (albeit very confusing) game of the year in the conference. If Ohio State beats Penn State, they should head to Madison at 10-0 before hosting Michigan in the finale.
2. Penn State (4-2, 2-0). When Sam Ficken missed his fourth field goal in a devastating one-point loss to Virginia in Week Two, many observers punted on the Nittany Lions season. Since that contest, the club has turned in a run of spirited performances that have turned the season around. Led by All-American-caliber linebacking duo Michael Mauti and Gerald Hodges, the Penn State defense has weathered a miserable off-season to produce excellent results. The loss to Ohio looks better every week (the Bobcats are 7-0), and senior quarterback Matt McGloin has turned from Big Ten laughing stock to respectable starter. It has been a truly incredible turn of events that has new boss Bill O'Brien neck and neck with Urban Meyer for Coach of the Year honors. At this juncture, I wonder if Silas Redd, Justin Brown, and Anthony Fera would be interested in coming back to Happy Valley.
The schedule the rest of the way includes plenty of winnable games. After a trip to the nightmare that is Kinnick Stadium, Penn State hosts Ohio State, enjoys back-to-back trips to Purdue and Nebraska, then closes the season returning home for Indiana and Wisconsin. Any win total between six and nine makes sense. For now, the defense looks good enough to carry the team.
3. Michigan (4-2, 2-0). At this point, I still feel like we don't know too terribly much about this Michigan team. They were unsurprisingly obliterated by an elite Alabama team. They struggled to beat Air Force at home, hardly an embarrassing result against a solid Falcons squad. They crushed Massachusetts. Then they played a turnover-filled contest in South Bend, ultimately losing an ugly 13-6 game to a strong Irish team. Since then, they have outscored Purdue and Illinois 89-13. It's clear that Michigan has the ability to produce a great season; it's also clear that they're not an elite squad. It's also clear that the losing records of the Rich Rodriguez regime are a thing of the past. Denard Robinson has produced a number of beautiful plays, but was completely overmatched against Alabama and turned the ball over five times versus Notre Dame.
We'll know how to rate this Michigan team 10 days from now, after they host Michigan State and travel to Lincoln. If they win both of those games, they should head to Columbus with a top-10 ranking. We'll also know where to rate Robinson in Michigan lore after the next month and a half.
4. Nebraska (4-2, 1-1). Nebraska played a patsy non-conference schedule. Their only decent opponent - UCLA - beat the Huskers. Since then, they enjoyed a tremendous comeback versus Wisconsin, then were blasted for 63 in Columbus. Nebraska has the look of a good team that is truly volatile. Because they miss Illinois, Indiana, and Purdue, they play easily the Big Ten's toughest conference schedule with only a date against a vastly improved Minnesota squad as a reliably likely win. The Nebraska offense has not struggled in the slightest. But the defense just does not resemble the blackshirt defenses of old.
5. Wisconsin (5-2, 2-1). Wisconsin's dreadful start to the season look a whole lot different in mid-October. Squeaking past Northern Iowa is still poor, but losing in Corvalis to Oregon State by three looks just fine as the Beavers are undefeated. Even Utah State looks strong with only a two-point loss to Wisconsin and a three-point loss at Brigham Young. Wisconsin has taken care of business versus Illinois and Purdue and positioned themselves nicely to turn in a solid season. Their lack of a quarterback - both Danny O'Brien and Joel Stave have thrown at least 75 passes - could cripple them however.
6. Michigan State (4-3, 1-2). Easily the conference's most disappointing team. They opened the year with a solid, conservative win over Boise State. Unfortunately, that set the tone for the season more than many expected. The passing offense is yet to click and there is plenty of blame to spread around. New quarterback Andrew Maxwell has left Spartan fans pining for Kirk Cousins. Established, reliable receivers like BJ Cunningham, Keshawn Martin and even Keith Nichol are nowhere to be found. The new batch of receivers has been terribly inconsistent, save for big tight end Dion Sims. Le'Veon Bell has produced in a way that reminds many of former workhorse back Javon Ringer, but the lack of a passing attack has allowed opposing defenses to focus on Bell.
Michigan State absolutely must find a way to win at least one of their next three contests at Michigan, at Wisconsin, and home for Nebraska. Thankfully, their defense has produced a strong season and should keep them in every game going forward.
7. Northwestern (6-1, 2-1). Despite an inconsistent aerial attack, Northwestern's ability to run the ball has propelled the team to an excellent start. Although their BCS-conference slate features the worst of those conference (Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Boston College), Northwestern nonetheless swept their non-conference foes. They handled Big Ten cellar-dwellers Indiana and Minnesota behind versatile leader Kain Colter and stud runner Venric Mark. Thei only loss required three fourth quarter touchdowns from Penn State. They are unlikely to be favored in their next four games ahead of the season-ending clash with Illinois, but Northwestern has finally done exactly what they needed to in advance of the conference schedule.
Thing is, for the first time in many, many years, Northwestern is winning because of their defense, not in spite of it. If the defense continues to perform, the Wildcats could reach eight or nine wins.
8. Iowa (4-2, 2-0). The Hawkeyes would be much, much higher on this list had they not crumbled at home in the final minute versus Central Michigan. Excepting that game, they beat Northern Illinois at a neutral site, lost a tough rivalry game versus Iowa State, beat Northern Iowa and Minnesota at home by multiple scores, and enjoyed a road win at Michigan State.
But choking at home against Central Michigan simply cannot happen. Iowa is definitely good enough to compete in every remaining game they have. Then again, they are shaky enough that bowl eligibility is still a serious question.
9. Purdue (3-3, 0-2). The Boilermakers were a trendy pick before the season to make some serious noise this year. In their non-conference games, Purdue looked strong. They crushed their sub-par competition and played Notre Dame tight to the final gun. However, their first two Big Ten contests have been miserable home flops versus Michigan and Wisconsin. Their defense was strong before their bye week, but they have given up 41 points per game since then. Robert Marve deserves kudos for his toughness in playing through a torn ACL, but the quarterback play of Marve and Caleb TerBush has been only adequate. The offense seems to lack an identity, something that is crippling an otherwise promising season.
They only have two home games remaining; while they should handle Indiana in their finale, Penn State will be tough for them. They're a near-lock to lose this weekend in Columbus, and while they could win any of their other three road contests (Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois), it would hardly be stunning to see them at home in December.
10. Minnesota (4-2, 0-2). Despite needing triple overtime at UNLV, Minnesota took care of business, running the table in the non-conference portion of their schedule. Marqueis Gray has played strong football, both running and passing effectively. And Max Shortell has filled in nicely for Gray at quarterback. Although they lost in Iowa City and home versus Northwestern, there's still a chance that they can find two more wins and prolong their season. Even if they don't win another game, they'll have their best record since 2009. Here's hoping Jerry Kill's seizure issues don't prevent him from coaching the rest of the way and the team responds to his inspirational leadership.
11. Indiana (2-4, 0-3). Indiana is most likely on its way to another dreadful record. But this record just won't feel the same as some of those in the past. They lost by two versus Ball State and 15 at Northwestern. However, they played two of their best games in many years with both Michigan State and Ohio State needing big second halves to escape with tight victories. If they can play with that type of enthusiasm the rest of the way, the Hoosiers could get to four or fine wins. They will continue to have to overcome a talent gap in their remaining contests, but they should be commended for playing with such resilience.
12. Illinois (2-5, 0-3). Illinois has basically been the antithesis of Indiana. Their only wins are home games over Western Michigan and Charleston Southern. They were crushed by non-conference foes Arizona State and Louisiana Tech. Continuing that trend, they have been outscored 111-21 in three Big Ten match-ups against Penn State, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Should they continue along this path, first-year coach Tim Beckman may need to start worrying about whether he will survive his new contract.
To be fair, the schedule does get much more forgiving the rest of the way. All five losses so far have come to teams ranked in the top 40 of Jeff Sagarin's college football ratings. Conversely, only one remaining opponent - Ohio State - is inside the top 40.
Thursday, October 18, 2012
A Look Back: NFL Power Rankings After Week 4
Before I started the blog, I sent the following email to my friends on October 2nd. It's fun to look at this now. I'll have more comments about the post at the bottom. Without further adieu....
ESPN power rankings just organize teams by record. That's what the standings do. Power rankings should function to tell you who the best teams are, regardless of record. For example, by record, the Arizona Cardinals are infinitely better than the New Orleans Saints. If the Bears had to play one game to make the playoffs, who would you rather face? It's a real question, right? Well, to me that means those teams should be close in power rankings even if they're far apart in the standings. So without further adieu, here goes:
ESPN power rankings just organize teams by record. That's what the standings do. Power rankings should function to tell you who the best teams are, regardless of record. For example, by record, the Arizona Cardinals are infinitely better than the New Orleans Saints. If the Bears had to play one game to make the playoffs, who would you rather face? It's a real question, right? Well, to me that means those teams should be close in power rankings even if they're far apart in the standings. So without further adieu, here goes:
1. Atlanta (4-0). The most complete team in the league. High-powered offense that can score at will.
2. Houston (4-0). They've only had one test, a 6-point road win at Denver. But they've obliterated their other crappy competition and look to have the complete package, mostly because they have Danieal Manning.
3. San Francisco (3-1). Their defense is that good.
4. Green Bay (2-2). The record deceives. A loss to SF and another "loss" to Seattle don't change the fact that their offense is still excellent. The scheme is perfect. They could still get to 12 wins.
5. Chicago (3-1). Elite defense, elite special teams, strong passing offense, still a weak O-Line.
6. Baltimore (3-1). Flacco is good, but no better. He still holds them from the top echelon.
7. New York Giants (2-2). Still a good defense, and Eli will keep them going.
8. New England (2-2). That loss to ARZ is still weird. But they're .500 with a +42 point differential. They've still got Brady.
9. Pittsburgh (1-2). Road losses in Denver and Oakland. They could easily be 5-2 in a month and still have Cleveland twice after that.
10. Denver (2-2). Peyton's arm is....less. Plenty of defense and Peyton won't lose them games. Their division is uninspiring.
11. San Diego (3-1). Wins over Oakland, Tennessee, and Kansas City. Obliterated by Atlanta. Let's see them play someone else (like New Orleans and Denver back-to-back). I still don't believe in Philip Rivers.
12. Dallas (2-2). Last night was awesome for us, horrifying for Dallas. They're not nearly as bad as they looked last night.
13. New Orleans (0-4). Four losses. Outscored by 20 points. The schedule is brutal, so they're not going to the playoffs. But I still don't want to play them.
14. Arizona (4-0). Great defense and Patrick Peterson is a score waiting to happen at all times. But they still don't have an offense.
15. Cincinnati (3-1). The hardest team for me to peg. They've beaten crappy teams, but on the road. They were annihilated by Baltimore. I just don't know what they'll look like in a month.
16. Minnesota (3-1). Good defense and special teams paired with an excellent rushing attack. Worked for the QB-less '05 Bears. Won't last for Minny, but Ponder looks better than some other young QBs (Bradford, Gabbert).
17. Seattle (2-2). A seriously lucky win over GB. But a similarly close loss in Arizona. They're extremely unspectacular, but the young defense looks useful.
18. Carolina (1-3). Inflated because of Cam Newton. Ron Rivera the head coach looks like a disaster. But with Cam, they appear competitive at all times.
19. Philadelphia (3-1). Could very easily be 0-4 after 1-point wins over Cleveland and Baltimore and a 2-point win over the banged-up Giants on a missed FG. This team could go 4-12. They look worse than I expected, even if their record is much better.
20. Washington (2-2). I didn't buy RGIII before the year. I was wrong. The rest of the offense has a ways to go though. Defense has been much worse that expected, particularly that showing in St. Louis.
21. Buffalo (2-2). Trade out Ryan Fitzpatrick for an average QB and they jump 10 spots.
22. Detroit (1-3). Their good things are great (D-Line, QB, Megatron). Their bad things are horrendous (DBs, OL). Last year was a bit of a farce, but they're genuinely improving and could contend next year.
23. Indianapolis (1-2). Luck looks legitimate. They need another WR (or two), but the offense could be good in a year. Defense lagging behind.
24. Oakland (1-3). Carson will help them compete in games and McFadden still impresses me. Crap defense.
25. St. Louis (2-2). Better defense, but Bradford can't survive behind their awful line. Years away still as the offense is really in shambles.
26. New York Jets (2-2). Defense isn't as good as offense is bad. Without Revis to steal some games, they're a mess. Sanchez is bad.
27. Kansas City (1-3). Matt Cassel killing this team. I think Kyle Orton could get them to .500.
28. Tampa Bay (1-3). They don't do anything particularly well. Feels like a random collection of players on a team with no identity.
29. Miami (1-3). Defense is alright and Bush has impressed. Tannehill doing better than I expected, but years away from being good.
30. Jacksonville (1-3). Gabbert is easily the second worst starter in the league. He was an awful pick and sets the team back a couple of years. It's hard to get a good read on the rest of the core because of how bad he is.
31. Tennessee (1-3). Much worse than I expected. QB mess. CJ2K terrible. Missing Finnegan badly. They could pick in the top-3 next year. A big drop from Jacksonville.
32. Cleveland (0-4). They might jump 10 spots when they draft Matt Barkley. Until then, with Brandon Weeden running the show, they've got a stranglehold on this spot. Joe Thomas is a franchise OT and Trent Richardson looks great. That's about it.
How bad are things for the Browns? Remember when they traded #6 overall to the Falcons in 2011 when Atlanta drafted stud WR Julio Jones? Cleveland got #27, #59, and #124 in 2011 as well as #22 and #118 in 2012. Here's what they did with each pick:
#27 in 2011: Traded to KC along with Cleveland's own 3rd-rounder (#70) for #21. Cleveland chose DT Phil Taylor, an All-Rookie player.
#59 in 2011: Cleveland chose WR Greg Little. Little has been constantly criticized for numerous drops.
#124 in 2011: Cleveland chose FB Owen Marecic, the only FB drafted in the first four rounds. While Marecic is admittedly awesome (started at FB AND LB for Stanford), he's hardly an impact player.
#22 in 2012: Cleveland chose QB Brandon Weeden, a rookie who turns 29 next weekend.
#118 in 2012: Included in the mind-numbing deal whereby Cleveland traded #4 overall for #3 overall. To make that huge leap over Minnesota to draft RB Trent Richardson (I'm sure MIN was going to draft him), Cleveland surrendered #4, #118, #139, and #211.
The Julio Jones trade in itself wasn't a terrible idea for a Browns team that desperately needed to add depth and multiple starters. But their subsequent actions left me with plenty of questions.
1. If they wanted a WR out of the 2011 draft, why not draft elite-level talent Jones, then find a DT in the second round? Taylor himself may have slipped thanks to off-field issues.
2. Drafting a FB in the 4th round when your team has tons of holes is irresponsible. Not a question, just an admonishment.
3. Weeden? Why? Does anyone anywhere think he's going to be a top-20 QB at any point in his career? He's 4.5 years older than Matthew Stafford: of course he looked great in the Big XII last year! Any of the next 8 picks would have worked exponentially better.
4. You can't get fleeced moving up from 4 to 3. The only time you should pay a lot to move up in that manner is in a draft with 3 HOF caliber QBs and a team holding the #3 pick that puts it up for sale. What happens if someone else trades with Minny to move up to #3? Nothing! In fact, Cleveland does even better. Instead of drafting luxury skill player RB Richardson, they take OT Kalil or luxury skill position player WR Blackmon without giving up those extra picks.
There's a reason some teams suck a lot. For the Cleveland Browns, just look at their last two drafts.
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Looking at the above, I still feel reasonably good about it, especially my diatribe against Cleveland. Congratulations to the Browns for a strong showing against the Bengals; unfortunately, they're still #32 in my mind right now. Cincinnati is moving down toward them. Were I to do a full blown new list, Cincinnati and San Diego would be the big fallers (shocking) while Seattle would enjoy a nice rise. But that's about all for the big movers.
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