*Back on August 14th, I posted my picks for the 2015 NFL season here. Unfortunately, I failed to perform my normal check to make sure that the records lined up. As a result, I gave the league a composite record of 241-271. Ouch. So below, please find a revised post that accounts for the fact that the league, as a whole, has to play .500 ball. I can't change the basic predictions - for example, no accounting for Philip Rivers having already received his extension or Kelvin Benjamin being out for the year for the Panthers - but the records and the draft order are updated as appropriate. The playoff tree is unchanged.
We're in the midst of the first week of the NFL preseason, but for me, it's still all about baseball. The Cubs are playing their best baseball in decades, with September relevance assured and a playoff odds percentage that is creeping up toward 90%.
Nevertheless, I love the Chicago Bears and I want nothing but greatness for them. With last night's preseason opener in the books, it's time to throw out my picks for this season. I'm sure that there will be a slew of injuries throughout the rest of the preseason that seriously impact these records, but the beauty of prognostication is that even the best mathematical systems miss an awful lot.
So using nothing but my gut and my brain, here goes!
NFC NORTH
Green Bay (12-4): Aaron Rodgers + Mike McCarthy + Ted Thompson = see you in January.
Minnesota (11-5): Teddy's offense and Zimmer's defense will win lots of games with this deep roster.
Detroit (8-8): With Ndamukong Suh and Dominic Raiola gone, the Lions need to find a new identity. Unfortunately for them, an 0-4 start (@ SD, @ MIN, v. DEN, @ SEA) will be too much to overcome.
Chicago (4-12): They'll be exciting on offense and brutal on defense; this record is mostly a reflection of their extremely strong division.
NFC SOUTH
Carolina (9-7): Cam Newton, gigantic slow receivers, and a defense. That's enough here.
Atlanta (8-8): This team keeps living in mediocrity, even with Julio Jones and Roddy White wreaking havoc.
New Orleans (6-10): The Brees era is heading for a screaming thud. Their cap management finally catches up to them this year.
Tampa Bay (5-11): Watch out for these guys in December and 2016 onward. A Lovie Smith defense + Jameis Winston's offense can be special. It'll just take a bit of time.
NFC WEST
Seattle (12-4): Because duh.
Arizona (10-6): Way too much defensive ability here now to not reach January.
St. Louis (9-7): Much like Detroit, the schedule makes it too tough right away. Talent is here.
San Francisco (4-12): Oh dear.
NFC EAST
Philadelphia (11-5): Chip makes his move.
Dallas (7-9): When the hype machine calms down, another flawed 'boys team will emerge.
New York (6-10): There's already no offensive line. It's only getting worse on that side of the ball.
Washington (3-13): It'll get better at some point, D.C. fans.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore (10-6): Harbaugh, Flacco, and Co. eek out just enough.
Cincinnati (9-7): They're just so consistently decent.
Pittsburgh (8-8): They're basically the same as Baltimore and Cincinnati, but somebody gets the short stick.
Cleveland (4-12): Still no direction and lots of problems.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis (13-3): A 6-0 division record is nearly locked in.
Houston (9-7): I still love Bill O'Brien, and adding Clowney makes that defense formidable.
Jacksonville (6-10): Rather quietly, GM David Caldwell has given QB Blake Bortles a bevy of weapons. Allen Robinson is about to explode onto the scene.
Tennessee (3-13): They are really, really awful.
AFC WEST
Denver (10-6): These Broncos are flawed, but so is the competition.
San Diego (10-6): Rivers got his contract, but I can't change the basic idea: tons of yards.
Kansas City (8-8): Andy Reid and the defense keep it respectable.
Oakland (5-11): Getting better, I suppose, but just barely.
AFC EAST
New England (12-4): Just because. Belichick and angry Brady? It's too obvious.
Miami (10-6): They've got their problems, but Tannehill takes another step with an improved defense.
Buffalo (8-8): Loads of weapons, no quarterback.
New York (6-10): Incredible collection of defensive talent, absolutely no quarterback play.
PLAYOFF TREE
Minnesota over Carolina
Philadelphia over Arizona
Denver over Miami
Baltimore over San Diego
Green Bay over Minnesota
Seattle over Philadelphia
New England over Denver
Indianapolis over Baltimore
Green Bay over Seattle
Indianapolis over New England
Green Bay over Indianapolis
2016 DRAFT ORDER
1. Tennessee
2. Washington
3. San Francisco
4. Cleveland
5. Chicago
6. Oakland
7. Tampa Bay
8. New York Jets
9. New Orleans
10. Jacksonville
11. New York Giants
12. Dallas
13. Atlanta
14. Pittsburgh
15. Buffalo
16. Kansas City
17. Detroit
18. St. Louis
19. Houston
20. Cincinnati
21. Carolina
22. Miami
23. San Diego
24. Arizona
25. Baltimore
26. Denver
27. Minnesota
28. Philadelphia
29. Seattle
30. Indianapolis
31. Green Bay
(*New England is currently slated to surrender their first-round pick as punishment for the Deflategate scandal.)
With those picks made, here are a handful of additional thoughts that I have about this season:
1. The Vikings are going to announce their arrival as a contender, and they'll stay there for the rest of this decade.
2. The NFC North and NFC West will be the class of the NFL this year; even the fourth-place finishers (Chicago and San Francisco, respectively) will play nearly average football.
3. Aaron Rodgers will run away with the MVP award.
4. No team in the AFC North holds a division lead of greater than one game all year; the Ravens knock off the Steelers in Week 16 prior to a Week 17 upset in Cincinnati that punches their playoff ticket.
5. Andrew Luck will make the leap from "elite young QB" to "elite QB."
6. The 2016 pre-draft offseason will be one for the ages as the Tennessee Titans will hold arguably the most highly-sought-after top pick in history with Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg the clear top choice and the next five clubs - Washington, San Francisco, Cleveland, Chicago, and Oakland - all desperately in need of a franchise signal-caller.
Friday, August 21, 2015
Thursday, August 20, 2015
Picking Penn State's 2015 Season
Anyone who has spoken with me in the past couple of months knows a few things about my thoughts on Nittany's upcoming season:
1. I'm not a huge James Franklin fan, though I'm certainly interested to see how he handles the program and the early returns are encouraging enough;
2. I think that the schedule lines up very favorably for the club to get on a roll in advance of late-season slugfests; and
3. I'm in love with Christian Hackenberg.
It's crazy. I'm 100% on board the Hacktrain, and I don't plan to get off for 20 years, following Hack from State College, PA to his inevitable home in Chicago, IL. It's going to be a fun run.
Of course, just talking about Hack misses the fact that there's an entire team of guys out there and the entire team has to win or lose games as a unit. So here are some very quick thoughts about the units on the team followed by a slightly more detailed look at my expectations for the schedule. I've organized these positions from weakest to strongest, meaning that we inevitably start with...
Specialists
Gulp. This group is ugly. After Sam Ficken's disastrous debut as a Freshman (that Virginia game was actually a nightmare and not something that really happened, right?), he turned into one of the Big Ten's best kickers. The fact that Ficken's final career play - an overtime extra point - won his final career game was a poetic bookend to his ascent.
Unfortunately, Sam left a vacancy that hasn't yet been filled. Whichever walk-on kicker wins the kicking job (probably going to be Joey Julius), it's going to be a big downgrade. Add in underwhelming Aussie punter Daniel Pasquariello, and you've got a unit in desperate need of improvement going forward. Unfortunately, the 2015 special teams units aren't pretty and they seem exceedingly likely to cost the club a game or two along the way. Franklin has already secured a verbal commitment from the top kicker in the Class of 2016 (Rockford, Michigan's Quinn Nordin) as well as a top-five punter (Atlanta-area leg Blake Gillikin). While that bodes well for the future, Nordin and Gillikin won't help the lackluster 2015 units.
Offensive Line
Before you hate me, I firmly believe that there's plenty of hope for this unit. Yes, it was abysmal last year, and yes, the top player is now protecting Jameis Winston's blind side in Tampa instead of Hack's in PA. Still, the quartet from LG to RT (Brendan Mahon, Angelo Mangiro, Brian Gaia, and Andrew Nelson) all comes with starting experience instead of exclusively question marks and concerns as was the case last year. The 44 sacks cannot be repeated - Hack won't survive the year - but this group should be better. If they can somehow comprise even an average Big Ten line, it'll go a long way toward making for a positive season.
Ah, but then there's the left tackle. Maybe Paris Palmer proves to be the JUCO angel Nittany needs him to be. Maybe Chance Sorrell proves that uncommon redshirt freshman capable of stepping in at the line's most important spot. Color me unexcited about either option.
Running Backs
Look, I've got nothing against this group. Akeel Lynch looks like a strong starter and Mark Allen looks ready to go in a part-time role. Yet, there's underwhelming depth here and Lynch looks like a plus starter instead of a star. That's fine, but not great.
Linebackers
Brandon Bell has placed a target on his back by taking on the responsibility of wearing #11, but his tape suggests that he's ready for that role. On the outside, Jason Cabinda and Nyeem Wartman-White are both plenty competent as starters. However, this unit either needs a true breakout from Cabinda or a big push from lower on the depth chart (we're looking at you, Koa Farmer) to move it's way up this list.
Defensive Line
Anthony Zettel is the second best player on this team and the most valuable member of the defense. Austin Johnson is a blossoming collegiate star next to him. This group should be ideal. Unfortunately, the group of Garrett Sickels, Carl Nassib, Curtis Cothran, and Evan Schwan needs to find a way to produce 120 plus snaps and while I have hope for Sickels, I don't see it for the group. Add in uninspiring depth on the interior, and this group only looks really good, not elite.
Wide Receivers
This group could top the list when all is said and done. The top five receivers feature just one upperclassman, redshirt junior Geno Lewis, an explosive yet inconsistent target. Three sophomores and a redshirt freshman join him among the top options. Saeed Blacknall proved capable of using his 6-3, 211-pound frame effectively last year, especially in making a game-changing touchdown catch when PSU gave Ohio State their toughest game of the year. DeAndre Thompkins put his redshirt year to use, and is poised to win a starting gig.
And then there's the big two options: true sophomore Chris Godwin and redshirt sophomore DaeSean Hamilton. Godwin showed flashes last year, and is certainly capable of playing his way into Hack's favor. Hamilton, on the other hand, is a preseason first-team All-Big Ten selection for a reason. The guy has the hands, quickness, and body to pitch-and-catch all day. This is a really strong group that can carry the team.
Secondary
The strength of the defense, this unit also lacks depth behind the starters like the defensive line, but the starters in the secondary are a glorious quartet. Senior Trevor Williams comes with a multitude of experience at cornerback while true sophomore Grant Haley brings oodles of athleticism (if not size) across from him.
The muscle comes at safety. Senior Jordan Lucas has earned and held a starting job for years, and he should competently quarterback the defense. But sophomore Marcus Allen is the star. I don't know if anybody is talking about the NFL prospects of true sophomore defensive backs, but Allen is headed for the NFL. He has the body, playing style, and football acumen to be a serious player at the next level. He's poised for a monster year.
Tight Ends
The depth here is just silly, largely thanks to Bill O'Brien's recruiting efforts and offense. Redshirt sophomore Adam Breneman flashed brilliance as a true freshman before losing last year to a knee injury. Breneman's injury red flags are flying freely, but there's still plenty of skill in there to be a pass-catching force. Senior Kyle Carter has been the go-to guy at the tight end spot for multiple stretches over the past couple of years, showing strong hands and body control. Carter is even showing up on All-Big Ten lists...yet true sophomore Mike Gesicki is listed atop the depth chart and with good reason: 6-6, 250-pound sure-handed speed targets are always attractive. Hack is going to love this group.
Speaking of...
Quarterbacks
The depth is poor with a true freshman (Tommy Stevens) and two redshirt freshmen (Trace McSorley and Billy Fessler) behind Hack. At 6-0, 196 pounds, McSorley brings a running element that Hack lacks, but he would represent a massive drop off.
The 6-4, 228-pound Hackenberg will carry the team on his shoulders in 2015 or he'll crumble behind a porous offensive line. I'm obviously visualizing the former. The arm is perfect, the footwork is strong, the acumen is solid, and with two dozen starts under his belt, Hack is ready for the leap with something like $20M at stake. He has a chance to be the best quarterback in the country this year, and Nittany's fortunes will follow his right arm and his brain.
Schedule
With that look at the players complete, here are my week-by-week picks, something that will prove completely ridiculous as players get hurt and strengths and weaknesses are revealed.
Week 1: @ Temple (Philadelphia)
Temple has given Penn State a tough time in their meetings over the past few years, and they have forced their way up near the top of the MAC standings.
However, Penn State continues come out ahead and the 2015 Nittany defense should have its way with the Owls.
Pick: Penn State 31, Temple 10
Week 2: v. Buffalo
I hate these games. They're not fun, even if you win 50-0. Let's get to Week 3.
Pick: Penn State 38, Buffalo 7
Week 3: v. Rutgers
The season gets at least a little bit more interesting in Week 3 as Rutgers comes to State College for a primetime date. Penn State's primetime visit to Piscataway in 2014 was one of the year's most frustrating games, albeit one with a marvelous payoff late in the fourth quarter. Don't expect similar results this year. Rutgers still hasn't named its quarterback, and Kyle Flood's squad appears destined for the basement of the Big Ten East.
Pick: Penn State 40, Rutgers 10
Week 4: v. San Diego State
San Diego State is certainly a more formidable opponent than Buffalo or some of the other lower-MAC fodder that has appeared on the schedule in recent years, but the Aztecs are nonetheless a tier or two below Big Ten competition. Preseason rankings have them in a similar spot to that of Temple and Rutgers. Sounds about right to me. I expect similar results.
Pick: Penn State 28, San Diego State 7
Week 5: v. Army
From everything I've been told, it's a cool experience to play an academy. Hopefully the Penn State players enjoy themselves before pummeling the opposition.
Pick: Penn State 45, Army 14
Week 6: v. Indiana
Indiana is a wonderful opponent against whom to open Big Ten play in earnest. The Hoosiers should lack both the depth and the star power to put up a true fight, yet they have given Nittany an inexplicably hard time for four straight years, including an embarrassing beatdown of Penn State in 2013.
I think Penn State will finally get some revenge this year, though not in dominating fashion.
Pick: Penn State 27, Indiana 10
Week 7: @ Ohio State
And then BOOM! At the Horseshoe in primetime, almost certainly a nationally televised showdown between undefeated and highly ranked squads. Ohio State's only marginally challenging game to that point is their Labor Day opener at Virginia Tech, and after the Hokies gave the Buckeyes their only blemish in last year's championship season, I expect Ohio State to be out for blood. They'll be 6-0 and rolling along.
That's unfortunate for Penn State. Nittany's best change is to catch Ohio State in the midst of a slate of challenging games, not as their first true focal point of the season. Joey Bosa will present a problem the likes of which hasn't been seen for the offensive line, and that Ohio State offense is a steamroller. As so often happens, this visit to Columbus will induce nightmares.
Pick: Ohio State 48, Penn State 10
Week 8: @ Maryland
After last year's stirring showing against the Buckeyes during the White Out game, Penn State followed up with the clunker of the year, a truly disheartening and depressing 20-19 loss to the Terrapins in their first-ever matchup as Big Ten foes. That loss dropped the 2014 club to 4-4 as their fourth straight loss, putting many of us in a funk.
Expect revenge in a big way this year. Maryland figures to field one of their weaker teams in recent memory and James Franklin appears uniquely poised to play off of the emotional damage inflicted by the Terps last year. I expect a rousing win following the letdown of Ohio State.
Pick: Penn State 30, Maryland 14
Week 9: v. Illinois
Trap game, anyone? Penn State somehow, rather inexplicably, lost in Champaign last season to a dreadful Illini squad in a game where Hackenberg completed just eight passes and threw for only 93 yards. Tim Beckman is on the hot seat and could very well be out of a job by Week 9, but I don't see it going down that way. Illinois should get off to a hot start against their non-conference foes, but thankfully for Penn State, Nittany catches Illinois at the end of their rough stretch, following games against Nebraska, Iowa (away), and Wisconsin. While both teams figure to be a bit beat up, I think Nittany can overpower Illinois this time.
Pick: Penn State 21, Illinois 15
Week 10: @ Northwestern
Ah, the Wildcats. Pat Fitzgerald's team almost always wins games you wouldn't expect them to win, yet oftentimes loses game they should win. Case in point: the 2014 Wildcats. The 2014 season featured loses to Cal, Northern Illinois, and Illinois, all at home. Ouch.
Yet that same club also beat Penn State, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame (on the road). What in the world?
It feels strange to pick a Northwestern game. I have no idea what's going to happen, but I do have very fond memories of sitting in Ryan Field on a chilly early evening in 2009 watching Daryll Clark's fourth quarter explosion turn a tight matchup into an easy win. Time for Hack to do that, too.
Pick: Penn State 31, Northwestern 20
Week 11: BYE
Finally!
Week 12: v. Michigan
Argh. I get a little angry thinking about this game.
Look, Michigan is going to be way better this year than they were last year simply due to Jim Harbaugh's presence. He's that good.
But how good will they be? And will Penn State be able to make it matter?
I just don't know. There's plenty of talent on both rosters and coaches new to town tasked with getting production out of them. I think that Harbaugh will be better at that...but Penn State has the better talent for their system right now.
Pick: Penn State 31, Michigan 30
Week 13: @ Michigan State
All yours, Mark Dantonio. Have fun fighting it out with Ohio State again!
Pick: Michigan State 28, Penn State 14
I fully expect Penn State to get obliterated by Ohio State this year, but both before and after the showdown in Columbus, the schedule shapes up nicely for a run at double-digit wins. I think they'll get there at 10-2. That'd be really fun.
I think Ohio State will go 12-0 because they have Urban Meyer and they're way more talented than everyone else that they'll play. I think Michigan State will go 9-3, dropping contests to Oregon, Ohio State, and one of Nebraska or Michigan (both road games). I think that Michigan will go 8-4, losing to Ohio State, Penn State, and two of Michigan State, Minnesota, BYU, and Utah.
Ohio State will face Nebraska in the Big Ten Championship Game, a game that the Buckeyes will win by 50 causing media members to wonder if Ohio State should move to the SEC.
It's going to be a fun year everyone!
1. I'm not a huge James Franklin fan, though I'm certainly interested to see how he handles the program and the early returns are encouraging enough;
2. I think that the schedule lines up very favorably for the club to get on a roll in advance of late-season slugfests; and
3. I'm in love with Christian Hackenberg.
It's crazy. I'm 100% on board the Hacktrain, and I don't plan to get off for 20 years, following Hack from State College, PA to his inevitable home in Chicago, IL. It's going to be a fun run.
Of course, just talking about Hack misses the fact that there's an entire team of guys out there and the entire team has to win or lose games as a unit. So here are some very quick thoughts about the units on the team followed by a slightly more detailed look at my expectations for the schedule. I've organized these positions from weakest to strongest, meaning that we inevitably start with...
Specialists
Gulp. This group is ugly. After Sam Ficken's disastrous debut as a Freshman (that Virginia game was actually a nightmare and not something that really happened, right?), he turned into one of the Big Ten's best kickers. The fact that Ficken's final career play - an overtime extra point - won his final career game was a poetic bookend to his ascent.
Unfortunately, Sam left a vacancy that hasn't yet been filled. Whichever walk-on kicker wins the kicking job (probably going to be Joey Julius), it's going to be a big downgrade. Add in underwhelming Aussie punter Daniel Pasquariello, and you've got a unit in desperate need of improvement going forward. Unfortunately, the 2015 special teams units aren't pretty and they seem exceedingly likely to cost the club a game or two along the way. Franklin has already secured a verbal commitment from the top kicker in the Class of 2016 (Rockford, Michigan's Quinn Nordin) as well as a top-five punter (Atlanta-area leg Blake Gillikin). While that bodes well for the future, Nordin and Gillikin won't help the lackluster 2015 units.
Offensive Line
Before you hate me, I firmly believe that there's plenty of hope for this unit. Yes, it was abysmal last year, and yes, the top player is now protecting Jameis Winston's blind side in Tampa instead of Hack's in PA. Still, the quartet from LG to RT (Brendan Mahon, Angelo Mangiro, Brian Gaia, and Andrew Nelson) all comes with starting experience instead of exclusively question marks and concerns as was the case last year. The 44 sacks cannot be repeated - Hack won't survive the year - but this group should be better. If they can somehow comprise even an average Big Ten line, it'll go a long way toward making for a positive season.
Ah, but then there's the left tackle. Maybe Paris Palmer proves to be the JUCO angel Nittany needs him to be. Maybe Chance Sorrell proves that uncommon redshirt freshman capable of stepping in at the line's most important spot. Color me unexcited about either option.
Running Backs
Look, I've got nothing against this group. Akeel Lynch looks like a strong starter and Mark Allen looks ready to go in a part-time role. Yet, there's underwhelming depth here and Lynch looks like a plus starter instead of a star. That's fine, but not great.
Linebackers
Brandon Bell has placed a target on his back by taking on the responsibility of wearing #11, but his tape suggests that he's ready for that role. On the outside, Jason Cabinda and Nyeem Wartman-White are both plenty competent as starters. However, this unit either needs a true breakout from Cabinda or a big push from lower on the depth chart (we're looking at you, Koa Farmer) to move it's way up this list.
Defensive Line
Anthony Zettel is the second best player on this team and the most valuable member of the defense. Austin Johnson is a blossoming collegiate star next to him. This group should be ideal. Unfortunately, the group of Garrett Sickels, Carl Nassib, Curtis Cothran, and Evan Schwan needs to find a way to produce 120 plus snaps and while I have hope for Sickels, I don't see it for the group. Add in uninspiring depth on the interior, and this group only looks really good, not elite.
Wide Receivers
This group could top the list when all is said and done. The top five receivers feature just one upperclassman, redshirt junior Geno Lewis, an explosive yet inconsistent target. Three sophomores and a redshirt freshman join him among the top options. Saeed Blacknall proved capable of using his 6-3, 211-pound frame effectively last year, especially in making a game-changing touchdown catch when PSU gave Ohio State their toughest game of the year. DeAndre Thompkins put his redshirt year to use, and is poised to win a starting gig.
And then there's the big two options: true sophomore Chris Godwin and redshirt sophomore DaeSean Hamilton. Godwin showed flashes last year, and is certainly capable of playing his way into Hack's favor. Hamilton, on the other hand, is a preseason first-team All-Big Ten selection for a reason. The guy has the hands, quickness, and body to pitch-and-catch all day. This is a really strong group that can carry the team.
Secondary
The strength of the defense, this unit also lacks depth behind the starters like the defensive line, but the starters in the secondary are a glorious quartet. Senior Trevor Williams comes with a multitude of experience at cornerback while true sophomore Grant Haley brings oodles of athleticism (if not size) across from him.
The muscle comes at safety. Senior Jordan Lucas has earned and held a starting job for years, and he should competently quarterback the defense. But sophomore Marcus Allen is the star. I don't know if anybody is talking about the NFL prospects of true sophomore defensive backs, but Allen is headed for the NFL. He has the body, playing style, and football acumen to be a serious player at the next level. He's poised for a monster year.
Tight Ends
The depth here is just silly, largely thanks to Bill O'Brien's recruiting efforts and offense. Redshirt sophomore Adam Breneman flashed brilliance as a true freshman before losing last year to a knee injury. Breneman's injury red flags are flying freely, but there's still plenty of skill in there to be a pass-catching force. Senior Kyle Carter has been the go-to guy at the tight end spot for multiple stretches over the past couple of years, showing strong hands and body control. Carter is even showing up on All-Big Ten lists...yet true sophomore Mike Gesicki is listed atop the depth chart and with good reason: 6-6, 250-pound sure-handed speed targets are always attractive. Hack is going to love this group.
Speaking of...
Quarterbacks
The depth is poor with a true freshman (Tommy Stevens) and two redshirt freshmen (Trace McSorley and Billy Fessler) behind Hack. At 6-0, 196 pounds, McSorley brings a running element that Hack lacks, but he would represent a massive drop off.
The 6-4, 228-pound Hackenberg will carry the team on his shoulders in 2015 or he'll crumble behind a porous offensive line. I'm obviously visualizing the former. The arm is perfect, the footwork is strong, the acumen is solid, and with two dozen starts under his belt, Hack is ready for the leap with something like $20M at stake. He has a chance to be the best quarterback in the country this year, and Nittany's fortunes will follow his right arm and his brain.
Schedule
With that look at the players complete, here are my week-by-week picks, something that will prove completely ridiculous as players get hurt and strengths and weaknesses are revealed.
Week 1: @ Temple (Philadelphia)
Temple has given Penn State a tough time in their meetings over the past few years, and they have forced their way up near the top of the MAC standings.
However, Penn State continues come out ahead and the 2015 Nittany defense should have its way with the Owls.
Pick: Penn State 31, Temple 10
Week 2: v. Buffalo
I hate these games. They're not fun, even if you win 50-0. Let's get to Week 3.
Pick: Penn State 38, Buffalo 7
Week 3: v. Rutgers
The season gets at least a little bit more interesting in Week 3 as Rutgers comes to State College for a primetime date. Penn State's primetime visit to Piscataway in 2014 was one of the year's most frustrating games, albeit one with a marvelous payoff late in the fourth quarter. Don't expect similar results this year. Rutgers still hasn't named its quarterback, and Kyle Flood's squad appears destined for the basement of the Big Ten East.
Pick: Penn State 40, Rutgers 10
Week 4: v. San Diego State
San Diego State is certainly a more formidable opponent than Buffalo or some of the other lower-MAC fodder that has appeared on the schedule in recent years, but the Aztecs are nonetheless a tier or two below Big Ten competition. Preseason rankings have them in a similar spot to that of Temple and Rutgers. Sounds about right to me. I expect similar results.
Pick: Penn State 28, San Diego State 7
Week 5: v. Army
From everything I've been told, it's a cool experience to play an academy. Hopefully the Penn State players enjoy themselves before pummeling the opposition.
Pick: Penn State 45, Army 14
Week 6: v. Indiana
Indiana is a wonderful opponent against whom to open Big Ten play in earnest. The Hoosiers should lack both the depth and the star power to put up a true fight, yet they have given Nittany an inexplicably hard time for four straight years, including an embarrassing beatdown of Penn State in 2013.
I think Penn State will finally get some revenge this year, though not in dominating fashion.
Pick: Penn State 27, Indiana 10
Week 7: @ Ohio State
And then BOOM! At the Horseshoe in primetime, almost certainly a nationally televised showdown between undefeated and highly ranked squads. Ohio State's only marginally challenging game to that point is their Labor Day opener at Virginia Tech, and after the Hokies gave the Buckeyes their only blemish in last year's championship season, I expect Ohio State to be out for blood. They'll be 6-0 and rolling along.
That's unfortunate for Penn State. Nittany's best change is to catch Ohio State in the midst of a slate of challenging games, not as their first true focal point of the season. Joey Bosa will present a problem the likes of which hasn't been seen for the offensive line, and that Ohio State offense is a steamroller. As so often happens, this visit to Columbus will induce nightmares.
Pick: Ohio State 48, Penn State 10
Week 8: @ Maryland
After last year's stirring showing against the Buckeyes during the White Out game, Penn State followed up with the clunker of the year, a truly disheartening and depressing 20-19 loss to the Terrapins in their first-ever matchup as Big Ten foes. That loss dropped the 2014 club to 4-4 as their fourth straight loss, putting many of us in a funk.
Expect revenge in a big way this year. Maryland figures to field one of their weaker teams in recent memory and James Franklin appears uniquely poised to play off of the emotional damage inflicted by the Terps last year. I expect a rousing win following the letdown of Ohio State.
Pick: Penn State 30, Maryland 14
Week 9: v. Illinois
Trap game, anyone? Penn State somehow, rather inexplicably, lost in Champaign last season to a dreadful Illini squad in a game where Hackenberg completed just eight passes and threw for only 93 yards. Tim Beckman is on the hot seat and could very well be out of a job by Week 9, but I don't see it going down that way. Illinois should get off to a hot start against their non-conference foes, but thankfully for Penn State, Nittany catches Illinois at the end of their rough stretch, following games against Nebraska, Iowa (away), and Wisconsin. While both teams figure to be a bit beat up, I think Nittany can overpower Illinois this time.
Pick: Penn State 21, Illinois 15
Week 10: @ Northwestern
Ah, the Wildcats. Pat Fitzgerald's team almost always wins games you wouldn't expect them to win, yet oftentimes loses game they should win. Case in point: the 2014 Wildcats. The 2014 season featured loses to Cal, Northern Illinois, and Illinois, all at home. Ouch.
Yet that same club also beat Penn State, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame (on the road). What in the world?
It feels strange to pick a Northwestern game. I have no idea what's going to happen, but I do have very fond memories of sitting in Ryan Field on a chilly early evening in 2009 watching Daryll Clark's fourth quarter explosion turn a tight matchup into an easy win. Time for Hack to do that, too.
Pick: Penn State 31, Northwestern 20
Week 11: BYE
Finally!
Week 12: v. Michigan
Argh. I get a little angry thinking about this game.
Look, Michigan is going to be way better this year than they were last year simply due to Jim Harbaugh's presence. He's that good.
But how good will they be? And will Penn State be able to make it matter?
I just don't know. There's plenty of talent on both rosters and coaches new to town tasked with getting production out of them. I think that Harbaugh will be better at that...but Penn State has the better talent for their system right now.
Pick: Penn State 31, Michigan 30
Week 13: @ Michigan State
All yours, Mark Dantonio. Have fun fighting it out with Ohio State again!
Pick: Michigan State 28, Penn State 14
I fully expect Penn State to get obliterated by Ohio State this year, but both before and after the showdown in Columbus, the schedule shapes up nicely for a run at double-digit wins. I think they'll get there at 10-2. That'd be really fun.
I think Ohio State will go 12-0 because they have Urban Meyer and they're way more talented than everyone else that they'll play. I think Michigan State will go 9-3, dropping contests to Oregon, Ohio State, and one of Nebraska or Michigan (both road games). I think that Michigan will go 8-4, losing to Ohio State, Penn State, and two of Michigan State, Minnesota, BYU, and Utah.
Ohio State will face Nebraska in the Big Ten Championship Game, a game that the Buckeyes will win by 50 causing media members to wonder if Ohio State should move to the SEC.
It's going to be a fun year everyone!
Friday, August 14, 2015
2015 Chicago Bears Roster Breakdown and Projection
With the shift from the franchise's traditional 4-3 defense to new Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio's 3-4 base, the Bears have signaled the beginning of a new era under fresh GM Ryan Pace. At this point, the roster has already turned over in a big way. Looking toward the 2015 season, here's who I expect to make it on a position-by-position basis. The parentheses that follow the position group name indicate how many players I expect the Bears to keep at such position.
On the Bubble: None
On the Bubble: Ka'Deem Carey, Senorise Perry
On the Bubble: Josh Bellamy, Cameron Meredith, Marc Mariani, Rashad Lawrence
On the Bubble: Bear Pascoe, Blake Annen
On the Bubble: Michael Ola
On the Bubble: None
On the Bubble: None
On the Bubble: None
On the Bubble: Will Sutton, Brandon Dunn, Cornelius Washington
On the Bubble: Sam Acho, Willie Young, David Bass
Inside Linebackers (5)
Locks: Shea McClellin, Christian Jones, Jon Bostic, Mason Foster
On the Bubble: Matthew Wells, DeDe Lattimore
On the Bubble: Sherrick McManis, Tracy Porter, Terrance Mitchell, Al Louis-Jean
On the Bubble: Demontre Hurst
On the Bubble: None
QB: Cutler, Clausen
RB: Forte, Rodgers, Langford, Carey
TE: Bennett, Rosario, Miller, Pascoe
OT: Bushrod, Mills, Leno
OG: Slauson, Long, Ducasse
C: Montgomery, Grasu
WR: Jeffery, Royal, White, Wilson, Bellamy
DE: Ferguson, Jenkins, Sutton, Dunn, Washington
NT: Ratliff, Goldman
OLB: McPhee, Allen, Houston, Acho, Young
ILB: Jones, McClellin, Foster, Bostic, Wells
CB: Fuller, Jennings, Ball, Porter, McManis
S: Vereen, Rolle, Mundy, Amos, Hurst
SP: Gould, O'Donnell, Gafford
That roster contains 23 players on offense, 27 on defense, and 3 specialists. Should a compelling wide receiver hit the market in the coming weeks, I suspect that the Bears would gobble him up, punting on one of Dunn, Washington, Young, Wells, or Hurst. Until then, the above roster figures to be the 53-man makeup.
Quarterbacks (2)
Locks: Jay Cutler, Jimmy ClausenOn the Bubble: None
Analysis: The Bears are going to carry Cutler and Clausen. No intrigue here.
Running Backs (4)
Locks: Matt Forte, Jacquizz Rodgers, Jeremy LangfordOn the Bubble: Ka'Deem Carey, Senorise Perry
Analysis: Forte, Rodgers, and Langford will suit up on Opening Day. The fourth spot is a whole lot trickier. Despite being drafted in the fourth round in 2014, Carey finds himself squarely on the bubble already. His uninspiring rookie season has been followed by Langford passing Carey on the depth chart in camp. It's possible that Carey's impressive showing in the preseason opener will sway the coaches; on the other hand, Perry comes with experience and is a plus on special teams. In the end, I suspect that the club will attempt to trade Carey before resigning itself to keep the sophomore in lieu of paying both his cap dead money charge (approximately $333K) and Perry's salary. Regardless, this is probably the battle to watch in camp.
Wide Receivers (5)
Locks: Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal, Kevin White, Marquess WilsonOn the Bubble: Josh Bellamy, Cameron Meredith, Marc Mariani, Rashad Lawrence
Analysis: This is obviously another big camp battle, though the reality remains that the winner of the competition for the fifth receiver job will likely be the guy who contributes most on special teams, giving Mariani a leg up in the competition. I'd be surprised to see a sixth receiver make the club, especially with the number of depth options on defense.
Tight Ends (3)
Locks: Martellus Bennett, Dante Rosario, Zach MillerOn the Bubble: Bear Pascoe, Blake Annen
Analysis: The Bears traditionally carry four tight ends, and with no traditional fullback on the roster, they could carry a fourth tight end this year despite the lack of a compelling option. Furthermore, Miller needs to come with an asterisk as he has lost multiple seasons to injury in his career.
Offensive Tackles (3)
Locks: Jermon Bushrod, Jordan Mills, Charles Leno, Jr.On the Bubble: Michael Ola
Analysis: Mills and Leno may very well be headed for a battle for the right tackle job with Bushrod locked in on the blind side. Ola is something of a long shot to make the club. Sixth-round pick Tayo Fabuluje seems destined for the Practice Squad.
Guards (3)
Locks: Matt Slauson, Kyle Long, Vladimir DucasseOn the Bubble: None
Analysis: Much like last season, Slauson and Long will man the starting positions. There are a few names in consideration for the reserve job, but Ducasse comes with experience and starts under his belt without a truly compelling prospect to push him. He'll get the job.
Centers (2)
Locks: Will Montgomery, Hroniss GrasuOn the Bubble: None
Analysis: Speaking of lacking intrigue. Montgomery is slated to start on a one-year deal whereas Grasu was just drafted with a third-round pick. They'll both make it.
Nose Tackles (2)
Locks: Jeremiah Ratliff, Eddie GoldmanOn the Bubble: None
Analysis: Just like it was at center, there's nothing interesting here. Ratliff will start, and Goldman was drafted in the second round to be the long-term answer in the interior. Terry Williams isn't in serious consideration for a spot.
Defensive Ends (5)
Locks: Ego Ferguson, Jarvis JenkinsOn the Bubble: Will Sutton, Brandon Dunn, Cornelius Washington
Analysis: This is another compelling position group. Washington proved too small as a 260-pound 4-3 defensive end, yet he put on 25 pounds in an effort to stick as an end in the 3-4. If he maintained his trademark quickness in spite of the added weight, he should make it. Sutton comes from the opposite position, a 4-3 defensive tackle kicking outside in the new alignment. Ditto Dunn. In the end, with only two nose tackles, I think the Bears will end up keeping all five defensive ends. If one guy doesn't make it, I suspect that Dunn will be left holding the short straw.
Outside Linebackers (5)
Locks: Pernell McPhee, Jared Allen, Lamarr HoustonOn the Bubble: Sam Acho, Willie Young, David Bass
Analysis: The Bears desperately needed to add an impact piece at the new 3-4 outside linebacker spot, and McPhee fit the bill perfectly. Though there's always risk taking a situational player and giving him a full-time job, McPhee's contract was largely risk-free (if cut, his cap hit for 2016 would be just $2M) and his upside is immense. Allen sticks around as a guy with a hefty guaranteed salary. This will be his final year with the Bears.
Houston flopped in his debut season with the Bears and embarrassingly tore his ACL celebrating his only sack, a garbage-time takedown against New England. Acho comes with some pass rushing success, Young is coming off of a ten-sack season, and Bass has shown some aptitude for pass rushing over the last two years. In the end, Acho, Young, and Bass may very well be competing for two spots. Young's marvelous 2014 campaign - his torn Achilles notwithstanding - should give him the upper hand while Acho's experience in the 3-4 helps his cause. Bass' speed could keep him on the roster, however, so this is the toughest spot for me to pick. In the end, I'll say that Acho and Young stick around while noting that an offer of a sixth-round pick from an opposing general manager would probably get Young, especially if such a deal moved him back into a 4-3 scheme.
Houston flopped in his debut season with the Bears and embarrassingly tore his ACL celebrating his only sack, a garbage-time takedown against New England. Acho comes with some pass rushing success, Young is coming off of a ten-sack season, and Bass has shown some aptitude for pass rushing over the last two years. In the end, Acho, Young, and Bass may very well be competing for two spots. Young's marvelous 2014 campaign - his torn Achilles notwithstanding - should give him the upper hand while Acho's experience in the 3-4 helps his cause. Bass' speed could keep him on the roster, however, so this is the toughest spot for me to pick. In the end, I'll say that Acho and Young stick around while noting that an offer of a sixth-round pick from an opposing general manager would probably get Young, especially if such a deal moved him back into a 4-3 scheme.
Inside Linebackers (5)
Locks: Shea McClellin, Christian Jones, Jon Bostic, Mason Foster
On the Bubble: Matthew Wells, DeDe Lattimore
Analysis: The top four inside 'backers are all effectively assured of their jobs. Jones is penciled in as the starter next to McClellin whereas Bostic comes with huge upside and Foster comes with years of solid, if uninspiring, tape. Wells came over from New England in a rare preseason trade for guard Ryan Groy; it would be strange if the Bears acquired the 2015 sixth-round pick and then cut him a few weeks later, though perhaps he'll head to the Practice Squad. Lattimore proved competent in limited use in 2014, but he's not moving the needle much.
Cornerbacks (5)
Locks: Kyle Fuller, Tim Jennings, Alan BallOn the Bubble: Sherrick McManis, Tracy Porter, Terrance Mitchell, Al Louis-Jean
Analysis: The top four will all stick around, and I had McManis on that top line for a bit before dropping him down. He should still make it. Ditto Porter. Mitchell and Louis-Jean are longshots. Despite seven names for five spots, there's little intrigue here.
Safeties (4)
Locks: Ryan Mundy, Antrel Rolle, Brock Vereen, Adrian AmosOn the Bubble: Demontre Hurst
Analysis: I have been consistently impressed by Hurst's production in games, both live and on television. Unfortunately for him, this roster is not well-shaped to provide him with a window to playing time. I suspect that Ryan Pace will keep him on speed dial in the event of an injury in the secondary.
Specialists (2)
Locks: Robbie Gould, Pat O'Donnell, Thomas GaffordOn the Bubble: None
Analysis: Three guys with jobs as secure as possible.
Cap Situation
It's mostly worthless to look at the club's roster without at least some idea of the team's salary cap situation. The Bears currently stand about $8.5M under the cap for 2015, placing them very near the median figure among NFL clubs. A couple of major numbers will come off of the books in 2016 (Jared Allen, Brandon Marshall) though nearly all of those savings figure to be reinvested into a new, long-term deal for Alshon Jeffery. Regardless, the cap sheet is relatively healthy.
Final Projection
Given everything listed above, here is my projection for the Opening Day 2015 roster:QB: Cutler, Clausen
RB: Forte, Rodgers, Langford, Carey
TE: Bennett, Rosario, Miller, Pascoe
OT: Bushrod, Mills, Leno
OG: Slauson, Long, Ducasse
C: Montgomery, Grasu
WR: Jeffery, Royal, White, Wilson, Bellamy
DE: Ferguson, Jenkins, Sutton, Dunn, Washington
NT: Ratliff, Goldman
OLB: McPhee, Allen, Houston, Acho, Young
ILB: Jones, McClellin, Foster, Bostic, Wells
CB: Fuller, Jennings, Ball, Porter, McManis
S: Vereen, Rolle, Mundy, Amos, Hurst
SP: Gould, O'Donnell, Gafford
That roster contains 23 players on offense, 27 on defense, and 3 specialists. Should a compelling wide receiver hit the market in the coming weeks, I suspect that the Bears would gobble him up, punting on one of Dunn, Washington, Young, Wells, or Hurst. Until then, the above roster figures to be the 53-man makeup.
2015 NFL Predictions
We're in the midst of the first week of the NFL preseason, but for me, it's still all about baseball. The Cubs are playing their best baseball in decades, with September relevance assured and a playoff odds percentage that is creeping up toward 90%.
Nevertheless, I love the Chicago Bears and I want nothing but greatness for them. With last night's preseason opener in the books, it's time to throw out my picks for this season. I'm sure that there will be a slew of injuries throughout the rest of the preseason that seriously impact these records, but the beauty of prognostication is that even the best mathematical systems miss an awful lot.
So using nothing but my gut and my brain, here goes!
NFC NORTH
Green Bay (12-4): Aaron Rodgers + Mike McCarthy + Ted Thompson = see you in January.
Minnesota (10-6): Teddy's offense and Zimmer's defense will win lots of games with this deep roster.
Detroit (8-8): With Ndamukong Suh and Dominic Raiola gone, the Lions need to find a new identity. Unfortunately for them, an 0-4 start (@ SD, @ MIN, v. DEN, @ SEA) will be too much to overcome.
Chicago (4-12): They'll be exciting on offense and brutal on defense; this record is mostly a reflection of their extremely strong division.
NFC SOUTH
Carolina (9-7): Cam Newton, gigantic slow receivers, and a defense. That's enough here.
Atlanta (7-9): This team keeps living in mediocrity, even with Julio Jones and Roddy White wreaking havoc.
New Orleans (5-11): The Brees era is heading for a screaming thud. Their cap management finally catches up to them this year.
Tampa Bay (5-11): Watch out for these guys in December and 2016 onward. A Lovie Smith defense + Jameis Winston's offense can be special. It'll just take a bit of time.
NFC WEST
Seattle (12-4): Because duh.
Arizona (10-6): Way too much defensive ability here now to reach January.
St. Louis (8-8): Much like Detroit, the schedule makes it too tough right away. Talent is here.
San Francisco (3-13): Oh dear.
NFC EAST
Philadelphia (11-5): Chip makes his move.
Dallas (7-9): When the hype machine calms down, another flawed 'boys team will emerge.
New York (6-10): There's already no offensive line. It's only getting worse on that side of the ball.
Washington (2-14): It'll get better at some point, D.C. fans.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore (9-7): Harbaugh, Flacco, and Co. eek out just enough.
Cincinnati (9-7): They're just so consistently decent.
Pittsburgh (7-9): They're basically the same as Baltimore and Cincinnati, but somebody gets the short stick.
Cleveland (4-12): Still no direction and lots of problems.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis (13-3): A 6-0 division record is nearly locked in.
Houston (9-7): I still love Bill O'Brien, and adding Clowney makes that defense formidable.
Jacksonville (6-10): Rather quietly, GM David Caldwell has given QB Blake Bortles a bevy of weapons. Allen Robinson is about to explode onto the scene.
Tennessee (2-14): They are really, really awful.
AFC WEST
Denver (10-6): These Broncos are flawed, but so is the competition.
San Diego (10-6): Rivers in a contract year: get ready for lots and lots of yards.
Kansas City (7-9): Andy Reid and the defense keep it respectable.
Oakland (4-12): Getting better, I suppose, but just barely.
AFC EAST
New England (12-4): Just because. Belichick and angry Brady? It's too obvious.
Miami (9-7): They've got their problems, but Tannehill takes another step with an improved defense.
Buffalo (7-9): Loads of weapons, no quarterback.
New York (4-12): Incredible collection of defensive talent, absolutely no quarterback play.
PLAYOFF TREE
Minnesota over Carolina
Philadelphia over Arizona
Denver over Miami
Baltimore over San Diego
Green Bay over Minnesota
Seattle over Philadelphia
New England over Denver
Indianapolis over Baltimore
Green Bay over Seattle
Indianapolis over New England
Green Bay over Indianapolis
2016 DRAFT ORDER
1. Tennessee
2. Washington
3. San Francisco
4. Oakland
5. Cleveland
6. Chicago
7. New York Jets
8. Tampa Bay
9. New Orleans
10. Jacksonville
11. New York Giants
12. Atlanta
13. Dallas
14. Pittsburgh
15. Buffalo
16. Kansas City
17. St. Louis
18. Detroit
19. Houston
20. Cincinnati
21. Carolina
22. Miami
23. San Diego
24. Arizona
25. Baltimore
26. Denver
27. Minnesota
28. Philadelphia
29. Seattle
30. Indianapolis
31. Green Bay
(*New England is currently slated to surrender their first-round pick as punishment for the Deflategate scandal.)
With those picks made, here are a handful of additional thoughts that I have about this season:
1. The Vikings are going to announce their arrival as a contender, and they'll stay there for the rest of this decade.
2. The NFC North and NFC West will be the class of the NFL this year; even the fourth-place finishers (Chicago and San Francisco, respectively) will play nearly average football.
3. Aaron Rodgers will run away with the MVP award.
4. No team in the AFC North holds a division lead of greater than one game all year; the Ravens knock off the Steelers in Week 16 prior to a Week 17 upset in Cincinnati that punches their playoff ticket.
5. Andrew Luck will make the leap from "elite young QB" to "elite QB."
6. The 2016 pre-draft offseason will be one for the ages as the Tennessee Titans will hold arguably the most highly-sought-after top pick in history with Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg the clear top choice and the next six clubs - Washington, San Francisco, Oakland, Cleveland, Chicago, and the New York Jets - all desperately in need of a franchise signal-caller.
Nevertheless, I love the Chicago Bears and I want nothing but greatness for them. With last night's preseason opener in the books, it's time to throw out my picks for this season. I'm sure that there will be a slew of injuries throughout the rest of the preseason that seriously impact these records, but the beauty of prognostication is that even the best mathematical systems miss an awful lot.
So using nothing but my gut and my brain, here goes!
NFC NORTH
Green Bay (12-4): Aaron Rodgers + Mike McCarthy + Ted Thompson = see you in January.
Minnesota (10-6): Teddy's offense and Zimmer's defense will win lots of games with this deep roster.
Detroit (8-8): With Ndamukong Suh and Dominic Raiola gone, the Lions need to find a new identity. Unfortunately for them, an 0-4 start (@ SD, @ MIN, v. DEN, @ SEA) will be too much to overcome.
Chicago (4-12): They'll be exciting on offense and brutal on defense; this record is mostly a reflection of their extremely strong division.
NFC SOUTH
Carolina (9-7): Cam Newton, gigantic slow receivers, and a defense. That's enough here.
Atlanta (7-9): This team keeps living in mediocrity, even with Julio Jones and Roddy White wreaking havoc.
New Orleans (5-11): The Brees era is heading for a screaming thud. Their cap management finally catches up to them this year.
Tampa Bay (5-11): Watch out for these guys in December and 2016 onward. A Lovie Smith defense + Jameis Winston's offense can be special. It'll just take a bit of time.
NFC WEST
Seattle (12-4): Because duh.
Arizona (10-6): Way too much defensive ability here now to reach January.
St. Louis (8-8): Much like Detroit, the schedule makes it too tough right away. Talent is here.
San Francisco (3-13): Oh dear.
NFC EAST
Philadelphia (11-5): Chip makes his move.
Dallas (7-9): When the hype machine calms down, another flawed 'boys team will emerge.
New York (6-10): There's already no offensive line. It's only getting worse on that side of the ball.
Washington (2-14): It'll get better at some point, D.C. fans.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore (9-7): Harbaugh, Flacco, and Co. eek out just enough.
Cincinnati (9-7): They're just so consistently decent.
Pittsburgh (7-9): They're basically the same as Baltimore and Cincinnati, but somebody gets the short stick.
Cleveland (4-12): Still no direction and lots of problems.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis (13-3): A 6-0 division record is nearly locked in.
Houston (9-7): I still love Bill O'Brien, and adding Clowney makes that defense formidable.
Jacksonville (6-10): Rather quietly, GM David Caldwell has given QB Blake Bortles a bevy of weapons. Allen Robinson is about to explode onto the scene.
Tennessee (2-14): They are really, really awful.
AFC WEST
Denver (10-6): These Broncos are flawed, but so is the competition.
San Diego (10-6): Rivers in a contract year: get ready for lots and lots of yards.
Kansas City (7-9): Andy Reid and the defense keep it respectable.
Oakland (4-12): Getting better, I suppose, but just barely.
AFC EAST
New England (12-4): Just because. Belichick and angry Brady? It's too obvious.
Miami (9-7): They've got their problems, but Tannehill takes another step with an improved defense.
Buffalo (7-9): Loads of weapons, no quarterback.
New York (4-12): Incredible collection of defensive talent, absolutely no quarterback play.
PLAYOFF TREE
Minnesota over Carolina
Philadelphia over Arizona
Denver over Miami
Baltimore over San Diego
Green Bay over Minnesota
Seattle over Philadelphia
New England over Denver
Indianapolis over Baltimore
Green Bay over Seattle
Indianapolis over New England
Green Bay over Indianapolis
2016 DRAFT ORDER
1. Tennessee
2. Washington
3. San Francisco
4. Oakland
5. Cleveland
6. Chicago
7. New York Jets
8. Tampa Bay
9. New Orleans
10. Jacksonville
11. New York Giants
12. Atlanta
13. Dallas
14. Pittsburgh
15. Buffalo
16. Kansas City
17. St. Louis
18. Detroit
19. Houston
20. Cincinnati
21. Carolina
22. Miami
23. San Diego
24. Arizona
25. Baltimore
26. Denver
27. Minnesota
28. Philadelphia
29. Seattle
30. Indianapolis
31. Green Bay
(*New England is currently slated to surrender their first-round pick as punishment for the Deflategate scandal.)
With those picks made, here are a handful of additional thoughts that I have about this season:
1. The Vikings are going to announce their arrival as a contender, and they'll stay there for the rest of this decade.
2. The NFC North and NFC West will be the class of the NFL this year; even the fourth-place finishers (Chicago and San Francisco, respectively) will play nearly average football.
3. Aaron Rodgers will run away with the MVP award.
4. No team in the AFC North holds a division lead of greater than one game all year; the Ravens knock off the Steelers in Week 16 prior to a Week 17 upset in Cincinnati that punches their playoff ticket.
5. Andrew Luck will make the leap from "elite young QB" to "elite QB."
6. The 2016 pre-draft offseason will be one for the ages as the Tennessee Titans will hold arguably the most highly-sought-after top pick in history with Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg the clear top choice and the next six clubs - Washington, San Francisco, Oakland, Cleveland, Chicago, and the New York Jets - all desperately in need of a franchise signal-caller.
Friday, June 19, 2015
I'm Done with Starlin Castro
No examination of his statistics. No advanced scouting analysis. No calm plea for sanity and reason.
Castro needs to lose his job, whether that means he gets plopped on the bench or the Cubs try to force him to the minors through waivers. He needs to be out of the lineup and, preferably, off the team. These games matter and he's a disaster on a team full of bright spots.
I'm done with him.
Thursday, June 18, 2015
A Midseason Look at the Chicago Cubs Top 50 Prospects
In the
interest of full disclosure, I began drafting this piece immediately after the
draft concluded, but I didn't want to post it until we actually knew which 2015
draftees signed with the club, hence the gap between drafting and posting.
Nevertheless, I didn't want to wait until mid-July, so I've made some
assumptions regarding the draftees and posted anyway.
As I have
every time I've posted a prospect ranking, I've altered the format just a bit
to provide more relevant information. For example, I've copied the
"risk" rating from national publications, with 1
representing Bryce Harper and 5 representing Brady Aiken. Expect a
fully detailed listing in October or November. Until then, let this whet your
appetite.
As an
extremely important note before beginning, neither Arismendy Alcantara nor
Javier Baez is eligible for this list. Were they eligible, they'd both push for
the top spot.
1. C/LF
Kyle Schwarber
Current
Level:
MLB Chicago (heading to Triple-A Iowa)
MLB ETA: April 2016
Grade: 65
Risk: 3
Tools: 60 hit, 70
power, 75 discipline, 40 glove, 50 arm, 40 run, 60 durability
Analysis: The risk
on Schwarber's offensive game is a 1: he's going to hit for power and he's
going to draw so many walks with so relatively few strikeouts that the on-base
skills will be constant. But the defensive risk is a 5 as he may be a terrible
catcher and he may not have the skillset to play an effective left field. If
he's defensively homeless, the overall package takes a massive hit. I think he
ends up playing a poor - but passable - left field and hits in the middle of
the order as part of the 21st century's murderer's row with Rizzo, Bryant, and
Soler.
2. SP
Duane Underwood
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: June 2017
Grade: 60
Risk: 4
Tools: 65 FB, 55
CB, 50 CH, 55 command, 60 durability
Analysis: Underwood
has cemented himself as the top pitching prospect in the organization through a
combination of stuff and performance. Rather strangely, Underwood has really
struggled to rack up strikeouts, yet his walk rate has dropped for the fourth
straight year and High-A hitters absolutely cannot square up the 20-year-old.
As each month passes, Underwood looks more and more like the legitimate
starting option that his big arm portends.
3. RF
Eloy Jimenez
Current
Level:
Extended Spring Training (off to Short-Season Eugene soon)
MLB ETA: August
2018
Grade: 60
Risk: 4
Tools: 65 hit, 60
power, 50 discipline, 50 glove, 60 arm, 50 run, 50 durability
Analysis: Eloy had
been exclusively about projection until he got stateside this year and
posted a huge .323/.363/.548 unofficial batting line in Extended Spring
Training. In addition to showing notable power and better-than-expected speed,
Jimenez struck out just 16.7% of his plate appearances, suggesting that his
approach may be even more advanced than was initially thought. With a smooth
swing and plenty of strength, Jimenez could be the rare hit-first right fielder
who produces plenty of extra-base power simply by virtue of hitting a boatload
of line drives instead of generating loft on the ball.
4. SP
Dylan Cease
Current
Level:
Extended Spring Training (off to Short-Season Eugene soon)
MLB ETA: June 2019
Grade: 60
Risk: 5
Tools: 70
FB, 60 CB, 30 CH, 40 command, 30 durability
Analysis: Cease is
the poster child for projection. He underwent Tommy John surgery almost
immediately after signing with the Cubs last summer, yet he returned throwing
in the upper 90s a few weeks ago. Cease is going to have command issues, both
by virtue of his raw but unharnessed arm and due to his recovery from surgery,
but the stuff is there to push for a job near the top of a Major League
rotation. He's the kind of massive risk that I like to take. Hopefully he'll
throw for a couple of months at Eugene to get his delivery heading in the right
post-operation direction.
5. SP
Carson Sands
Current
Level:
Extended Spring Training (off to Short-Season Eugene soon)
MLB ETA: April 2018
Grade: 60
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
FB, 40 CB, 60 CH, 50 command, 50 durability
Analysis: Sands has
the one thing I look for in a lefty above all else: the diving, tumbling
changeup that gives right-handed hitters fits. He struggled with walks in
Extended Spring Training, issuing 11 free passes over 14 innings, but he had
plenty of strikeouts and limited the hits against him, both encouraging
realities for the southpaw. Sands needs repetitions just like any other recent
draftee, but he has the look of a pitcher that could move more quickly than the
standard prep draftee given the changeup's advanced status. I'm excited to see
what Sands can do over the next year.
6. SS
Gleyber Torres
Current
Level:
Low-A South Bend
MLB ETA: May 2018
Grade: 60
Risk: 3
Tools: 65 hit, 45
power, 70 discipline, 60 glove, 55 arm, 55 run, 70 durability
Analysis: Slapping a
"3" risk grade on an 18-year-old in Low-A sounds absurd, but Torres
has earned such a marker. The shortstop with a clean, quick stroke has proved
stunningly adept at managing the strike zone against full-season competition.
Although he has struck out nearly 25% of the time, his 10%+ walk rate is an
astounding accomplishment, especially when considering that Torres has hit for
almost no power thus far. His slight stature may cause some issues down the
road, yet as his power emerges, he should be able to maintain high on-base
percentages thanks to an excellent hit tool that his him sitting comfortably
north of .300 on the year. It remains to be seen if he'll need to shift to the
other side of second base, but legitimate middle infield gloves with high-.300
on-base skills have been in high demand forever and for good reason.
7. SP
Trevor Clifton
Current
Level:
Low-A South Bend
MLB ETA: June 2018
Grade: 60
Risk: 5
Tools: 60
FB, 55 CB, 40 CH, 50 command, 60 durability
Analysis: Almost
impossibly, Clifton was the only prep pitcher drafted band signed y Jason
McLeod in the 2013 draft, the first draft under the current regime. Clifton's
mechanics were truly painful to watch coming out of high school, suggesting
that a future injury was a foregone conclusion. Thankfully, the minor league
staff has smoothed out his delivery in a major way, resulting in a clean
delivery from both the windup and the stretch. His fastball hasn't skipped a
beat, running up there in the 90s as it did before. The real growth - beyond
the mechanical improvement - has come in his 11-5 curveball that he throws with
regularity and confidence. I haven't seen enough of his changeup to grade it
confidently, but two above-average offerings and clean mechanics is a tremendous
jumping-off point for the 6'4" 20-year-old. I really like what I see.
Clifton sure looks like $375,000 well spent, even if there's plenty of
development between him and big-time prospect status.
8. RP
C.J. Edwards
Current
Level:
Triple-A Iowa
MLB ETA: June 2015
Grade: 60
Risk: 1
Tools: 70
FB, 55 CB, 60 CH, 60 command, 30 durability
Analysis: It may
seem strange to see a "1" risk grade in cahoots with a "30"
durability rating, but that's Edwards for you. The stuff is undeniably superb
with three above-average pitches including two true plus offerings and plenty
of command thereof. Unfortunately, Edwards doesn't ever figure to eclipse about
170 pounds, something that will keep him in the bullpen short- and long-term,
regardless of what the front office might suggest. No matter: Edwards can close
and he'll be a big addition to the roster this summer after he gets a few more
weeks at Triple-A under his belt.
9. SP
Jake Stinnett
Current
Level:
Low-A South Bend
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 55
Risk: 5
Tools: 60
FB, 50 CB, 30 CH, 30 command, 70 durability
Analysis: Stinnett
is already 23, but he may as well be 19 in terms of his development. That's not
a knock on him; it's a reality of his not having turned to pitching full-time
until late in college. Stinnett has the benefit of having a low-mileage arm,
yet he looks incredibly raw, like a hurler with a desperate need to throw a few
hundred more innings before having the chance to really develop a good feel for
his stuff. But having seen him throw a few games on video, I like this risk,
too. Stinnett is a strong athlete who is going through growing pains.
10.
CF Donnie Dewees
Current
Level:
Draftee
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 50
Risk: 3
Tools: 55 hit, 45
power, 45 discipline, 55 glove, 25 arm, 65 run, 70 durability
Analysis: Dewees is
something of a strange pick, a player discussed as a mid-first rounder with
absolutely incredible production in college who nonetheless has some holes in
his game. Let's start with the bad: Dewees has a Juan Pierre-esque arm, his
swing doesn't appear to generate the bat speed that suggests he'll hit for
power, and his competition in the Atlantic-Sun Conference was likely subpar.
Now for the good: Dewees absolutely destroyed opposing pitchers, hit for
excellent power with a compact stroke, should hit for plenty of
average, and he runs very well. I could see Dewees flaming out in two
years as the level of competition overwhelms him while I could simultaneously
see him manning center field at Wrigley in about two year's time if the bat
plays up. He's a great pick at #47 overall: lots of upside and enough present
production to justify the pick.
11. SP
Erling Moreno
Current
Level:
Extended Spring Training (off to Short-Season Eugene soon)
MLB ETA: July 2019
Grade: 55
Risk: 5
Tools: 60 FB, 35
CB, 60 CH, 60 command, 40 durability
Analysis: Moreno is
still just 18 and he enjoyed a strong, albeit brief, Extended Spring Training
Run this year. He should get plenty of additional innings to work his way back
into form at Eugene. I say that because 2014 Tommy John surgery certainly
derailed his development. Fortunately for the Cubs, 6'7" righties with
advanced changeups are extremely, so even having gone under the knife, Moreno
is a good prospect. He needs lots of time but plenty of pieces are in place.
12.
LF Billy McKinney
Current Level: Double-A Tennessee
Current Level: Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: July 2016
Grade: 50
Risk: 2
Tools: 70
hit, 40 power, 60 discipline, 45 glove, 45 arm, 45 run, 60
durability
Analysis: McKinney
is a polarizing prospect. Some evaluators see a 20-year-old posting a decent
line at Double-A, having completely obliterated High-A, with a great hit tool,
incredibly contact ability, and strong discipline with enough athleticism to
play a number of outfield positions. Others see a left fielder with little
power and a subpar defensive profile. Scouts are uniform in their belief that
McKinney lacks any kind of useful speed. I fall in the second camp with
McKinney, seeing a really nice swing with a good hit tool, but poor power and
an underwhelming glove. That profile doesn't play in left, though it might play
as a second-division starter in center if McKinney can maintain his career walk
rate. Unfortunately for McKinney, pitchers are going to challenge him unless he
can show the aptitude to hit for power, something that could curtail his on
base rates. He's an interesting prospect thanks to the bat, but his concerns
are very concerning.
13. SP
Jen-Ho Tseng
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: June 2017
Grade: 50
Risk: 3
Tools: 55
FB, 55 CB, 55 CH, 60 command, 50 durability
Analysis: I was the
high man on Tseng last fall. Unfortunately, the command-dependent righty has
pitched only to decent results at Myrtle Beach thus far. Tseng lacks strikeout
stuff and although he maintains a strong walk rate in the low 2s, he needs to
have his arsenal take a jump or two to project as anything more than a back-end
arm. I still love the command profile and think that Tseng will be a useful
contributor at the top level. It's just tougher to see an impact arm given his
dearth of strikeouts.
14. RP
Pierce Johnson
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: May
2016
Grade: 50
Risk: 2
Tools: 60
FB, 70 CB, 40 CH, 45 command, 40 durability
Analysis: Another
year, another injury for Johnson as a lat strain has cost the righty the first
two months of the season. Despite my consistent concerns about his changeup to
date, I was willing to stick with Johnson as a starter through the winter, but
now, with additional developmental time lost, I think he has to be moved to the
bullpen. His stuff should play extremely well there as his curveball is a
dominant offering, good enough to retire hitters of both handedness, and his
fastball is already a plus offering. His changeup remains subpar and he likely
won't feature it much at all out of the bullpen.
15. SP
Bryan Hudson
Current
Level:
Draftee
MLB ETA: 2020
Grade: 55
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
FB, 65 CB, 40 CH, 50 command, 45 durability
Analysis: I very
much like the Hudson pick. He's the right type of talent to add to the system
in the third round of this June's draft: a tall, lanky prep lefty with a
dynamite curveball, enough fastball, and the need to add 20-30 pounds of leg
strength to his frame. The Cubs will give him the years needed to do so, and I
for one will very much enjoy the journey. I said on draft night that he reminds
me of Sean Marshall, delivery and all. That's a fine piece for the system.
16. 2B/LF
Ian Happ
Current
Level:
Draftee
MLB ETA: June 2017
Grade: 50
Risk: 2
Tools: 55
hit, 50 power, 55 discipline, 40 glove, 50 arm, 50 run, 60
durability
Analysis: As I noted
in my draft recap, Happ was decidedly on my "Do Not Draft" list at #9
for one simple reason: he's defensively homeless. Happ doesn't look like he'll
have the chops to handle an infield job to me, something that torpedoes his
value. There's no denying that his bat was extremely impressive at Cincinnati,
and I really like his swing from the left side. I don't think he'll run too
terribly well, but he should move just fine. His offensive game would play
really well at second base...but if his glove pushes him to an outfield corner,
he'll have a helluva time being even an average regular at his peak. I listed
eight names I would have preferred from the Cubs at #9, but Happ is the guy, so
I'll slot him here.
17. 1B
Dan Vogelbach
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: July 2016
Grade: 50
Risk: 2
Tools: 60
hit, 60 power, 70 discipline, 30 glove, 40 arm, 20
run, 60 durability
Analysis: Somewhat
remarkably, Vogelbach has kept himself on the field every day throughout his
career, despite arriving with a body that carried a ton of excess fat.
Vogelbach has played four full seasons now and the data only somewhat matches
the scouting report. Vogelbach has hit for a much better average than might
have been expected as his all-fields approach has worked wondrously well.
However, his game power just hasn't materialized, almost surely in some part
because minor league pitchers refuse to throw him strikes. Nevertheless,
Vogelbach will be a negative defensively and on the basepaths regardless of how
well the bat develops, so he really needs his power to show up to have anything
other than a role 50 future. He's certainly not bad; it's just that he's not a
needle-mover when considering the full package.
18. 3B
Christian Villanueva
Current
Level:
Triple-A Iowa
MLB ETA: July 2015
Grade: 45
Risk: 2
Tools: 45
hit, 45 power, 50 discipline, 60 glove, 55 arm, 40 run, 60
durability
Analysis: Kudos to Villanueva for working his way back onto the
prospect map. A disastrous 2014 season at the plate had Villanueva fading into
obscurity, but a nice recovery both in terms of his on-base ability and
particularly with some rediscovered game power in 2015 has him looking like a
second-division third baseman thanks to his plus glove and solid arm.
Villanueva will never be a star, but he has the defensive chops to be a
glove-first regular for a short time and a solid bench option in the longer
term, particularly as his game power proves increasingly usable.
19. RP
Armando Rivero
Current
Level:
Triple-A Iowa
MLB ETA: July 2015
Grade: 55
Risk: 3
Tools: 70
FB, 40 CB, 40 CH, 45 command, 50 durability
Analysis: Rivero
appeared ready to jump into a late-inning role in Chicago this year, but a
terrible start to the season has severely lowered his ceiling. Rivero simply
cannot stop walking opposing hitters and he has found strikeouts much tougher
to come by. That combination has proved unsurprisingly devastating. Although
Rivero has rebounded somewhat from a truly dreadful start, he is still
struggling mightily with walks, so he'll likely need more seasoning than
expected in order to find the same.
20.
C Victor Caratini
Current Level: High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: April 2018
Grade: 50
Risk: 5
Tools: 55
hit, 45 power, 60 discipline, 50 glove, 55 arm, 30 run, 70
durability
Analysis: Bat flips
aside, Caratini still has plenty of Major League caliber tools and as he continues
to hold his own against tougher competition, he maintains his status as an
interesting prospect. Caratini's game power has continually lagged behind his
raw power, yet his game power has even tailed off further as a Cub as the
switch-hitter has just one home run during his tenure with the organization.
Fortunately, Caratini has continually cut his strikeout rate and his walk rate
has taken a big jump this year. He remains raw, but the reports on his
defensive work are strong enough to keep this converted infielder on the
catching depth chart with the possibility of a breakout remaining reasonable in
the future.
21. SP
Paul Blackburn
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 50
Risk: 4
Tools: 50 FB, 50 CB, 55 CH, 60
command, 60 durability
Analysis: Blackburn's stuff still hasn't taken the leap that the Cubs hoped for when they drafted him, but his pitchability has consistently helped him produce strong results. He has improved his command at each level while continually limiting the long ball. Progress has been methodical, but there may yet be a back-end starting pitcher in here.
22. SP
Tyler Skulina
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: August
2016
Grade: 55
Risk: 5(!)
Tools: 60
FB, 60 SL, 45 CH, 40 CB, 45 command, 70 durability
Analysis: Skulina is
massive, and I've often assumed that his frame would cause command problems
that would push him to the bullpen. Instead, Skulina has somehow maintained a
relatively consistent walk rate as he has climbed through the minors. His big
fastball-slider combination stands a good chance to get him to the Majors even
if his command falters, albeit in a relief role, but I'm back to thinking that
there's a real chance his big stuff gets enough of a command boost to be a
viable starting pitching candidate. If the command doesn't improve, he's a role
45 reliever. Not an unreasonable floor.
23. OF
Mark Zagunis
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: April 2017
Grade: 45
Risk: 2
Tools: 55
hit, 40 power, 70 discipline, 50 glove, 45 arm, 55 run, 70
durability
Analysis: Zagunis
has shifted completely away from his college role as a part-time
catcher/part-time outfielder in favor of a full-time outfield role. While that
certainly chops down his value in a big way, he continues to display elite
on-base skills, a bit of pop, and solid speed. Zagunis will never be a star,
but a plus athlete with elite on-base ability will always have a job, likely as
a fourth outfielder or perhaps even in a platoon role, especially if the power
continues to grow into game form.
24. RP
Corey Black
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: July 2015
Grade: 50
Risk: 1
Tools: 60
FB, 45 SL, 55 CH, 45 command, 55 durability
Analysis: I've had
Black listed as a reliever for the past few years and the Cubs finally made the
switch official recently. It only makes sense as Black's undersized frame
simply wouldn't hold up over the course of minor league starts, let alone for
full Major League seasons in the rotation. But that's not a knock on Black: in
his new role, he should flourish, especially given that he has curbed his
previously disastrously climbing walk rate. He's got a chance to pitch in the
7th or 8th inning later this year.
25. CF
Jacob Hannemann
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: April 2017
Grade: 55
Risk: 5
Tools: 60
hit, 50 power, 60 discipline, 65 glove, 50 arm, 65 run, 70 durability
Analysis: I continue
to occupy my spot as the high man on Hannemann, and that's just fine with
me. He runs extremely well, if a bit aggressively at times. He's a great
athlete as he has maintained plenty of his football physique in a good way. And
his plate approach continues to look better than I would have expected given
his missed development time in college. His results are still terrible: if the
risk scale went from 1-100 instead of 1-5, Hannemann would be at 95+. There's
oodles of projection to do here to see a valuable player, but I still see
plenty of it.
26. 3B
Jeimer Canderlario
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 50
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
hit, 50 power, 50 discipline, 45 glove, 60 arm, 35 run, 45 durability
Analysis: After a
complete collapse at Daytona in 2014 and a needed return to the Midwest League,
Candelario has enjoyed a surprising resurgence this year with a well-rounded
game emerging that features average defense and encouraging offense. He's
officially back on the map, even if he'll have a tough time reaching his 2013
high given that the body - while vastly improved - still needs more work.
27. SP
Justin Steele
Current
Level:
Extended Spring Training (off to Short-Season Eugene soon)
MLB ETA: July 2019
Grade: 50
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
FB, 45 CB, 35 CH, 40 command, 50 durability
Analysis: Of the
three mid-round bonus babies drafted in 2014, Steele is absolutely the least
exciting to me. I just don't see the ceiling. He seems like a relatively
polished swingman. Perhaps he'll move a bit more quickly than Cease or Sands,
but it's tough for me to see Steele ever growing into a solid rotation member.
It'll help to get a look at him in short-season ball.
28. 2B
Frandy Delarosa
Current
Level:
Extended Spring Training (off to Short-Season Eugene soon)
MLB ETA: April 2019
Grade: 50
Risk: 5
Tools: 55
hit, 50 power, 45 discipline, 50 glove, 50 arm, 55 run, 50 durability
Analysis: Delarosa
struggled through arguably the worst professional debut I've ever seen in 2013,
managing just 3 hits in 39 at bats with a stunning 20 strikeouts in the
Dominican Summer League. He turned things around in a big way as an 18-year-old
back in the DSL last summer and made his way stateside this spring where he
played well in Extended Spring Training. His calling cards are diverse with
plus athleticism giving him useful speed, a strong defensive profile up the
middle, and plenty to believe in with his bat...at least from the left side. I
won't be surprised if the Cubs scrap his switch hitting, forcing him to hit
lefty full time. His right-handed swing is unimpressive. Still, there's plenty
of talent here in the former $700,000 signee. He also happens to physically
look an awful lot like Arismendy Alcantara, for whatever that's worth.
29. SP
Daury Torrez
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 45
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
FB, 50 SL, 40 CH, 50 command, 60 durability
Analysis: Torrez has
continued to minimize walks in 2015, but Carolina League hitters have posed a
real challenge to him as their collective batting average against him is nearly
100 points higher than was the average of Midwest League hitters. It's not that
Torrez has gotten worse: there's just an appreciation now of how important it
is for him to locate his sinking fastball. I still see enough here for a fringe
starter, but Torrez will need to make a jump to get there.
30. RP
Juan Paniagua
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 50
Risk: 4
Tools: 60
FB, 50 CB, 50 command, 50 durability
Analysis: I worried
that Paniagua could slip into irrelevance without an impressive showing to
start 2015, but impress he has. Paniagua has used his huge fastball to throw
enough strikes to overwhelm an overmatched league. There are still things to
clean up, but two usable pitches can make a useful middle reliever.
31. C
Willson Contreras
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: April 2017
Grade: 45
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
hit, 50 power, 50 discipline, 50 glove, 55 arm, 45 run, 60 durability
Analysis: Despite
receiving a Cub-high $850,000 signing bonus in 2009, Contreras has largely
stayed under the radar during his climb up the system. A BABIP-fueled
first-half breakout this year has eroded that anonymity. But looking past the
BABIP jump, Contreras has maintained a solid walk rate while chopping his
strikeouts and adding power. That's the ideal recipe. A converted third
baseman, Contreras is plenty athletic. He has a chance to benefit from Kyle
Schwarber's promotion in a major way as a full-time gig in the second half
should give him the opportunity to confirm that his improvements are
legitimate.
32. SP
Rob Zastryzny
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: April
2017
Grade: 40
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
FB, 45 CB, 55 CH, 50 command, 60 durability
Analysis: Zastryzny
is tumbling down this list as he has been hit too hard at each level and a foot
injury will cost him at least two months of the 2015 season. Without tons of
stuff, Zastryzny needs tremendous command, yet without pitching regularly, his
arsenal can't get the needed boost to play up. Here's hoping he recovers in a
big way in the second half.
33. RP
Dave Berg
Current
Level:
Extended Spring Training (off to Short-Season Eugene soon)
MLB ETA: July 2016
Grade: 45
Risk: 2
Tools: 55
FB, 40 SL, 70 command, 80 durability
Analysis: It seems a
bit absurd, but I've come to appreciate Berg a bit more over the past couple of
weeks. While his fastball wouldn't overwhelm coming in at 83 from a traditional
delivery, it's actually impressive velocity from a submariner. I still don't
like his slider at all, but he doesn't walk anybody and can throw every day.
It'll be good for Berg to get into games as he could climb very quickly.
There's a chance for something here.
34. SP
Jonathan Martinez
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 40
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
FB, 50 SL, 60 CH, 60 command, 40 durability
Analysis: I've got a
real thing for three kinds of pitchers: (i) guys with huge fastballs, (ii) guys
with killer changeups, and (iii) guys who don't walk anybody. Martinez is
decidedly not the first guy, but he fulfills the latter two criteria
beautifully. It's tough to get a great read on him because the stuff is solid
but not special and he's not striking out anybody at the High-A level. Still,
as a return for Darwin Barney, Martinez is an absolute coup.
35. CF
Albert Almora
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 40
Risk: 5(!)
Tools: 60
hit, 55 power, 20 discipline, 60 glove, 55 arm, 55 run, 40 durability
Analysis: It's
basically unthinkable that Almora could be so far down this list given his
toolbox, but I put him here without questioning it. I've seen Almora put a
number of really impressive swings on balls from professional pitchers,
including Major League arms. There's no questioning his swing, his defense, or
his athleticism. It's all there. But an inability to lay off pitches can sabotage
the entire package, and it's getting to the point where it's tough to see any
other outcome with Almora. He still swings at every pitch he can touch with his
bat, resulting in piles and piles of weak groundouts. Almora rather
consistently looks like Bad Castro, the 2015 version of Starlin Castro who
chases every pitch off the plate away. If Almora couldn't improve this facet of
his game while watching the approaches of Kyle Schwarber and Dan Vogelbach, I
don't have a lot of hope for him. I'm sure that the industry values Almora
significantly more highly than I do and he's a Role 60 player if the discipline
even reaches a 40 grade. But that's years of improvement away from where he is
right now.
36. SP
Ivan Pineyro
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: April 2016
Grade: 45
Risk: 3
Tools: 50
FB, 40 CB, 60 CH, 50 command, 40 durability
Analysis: After
nearly falling off the prospect map entirely as a result of an injury-plagued,
ineffective 2014, Pineryo has reestablished himself with authority, cutting his
walks, kicking up his strikeouts, and working deeper into games without giving
up many homers. I still think that his breaking pitch is of the get-me-over
variety, but there's enough here that he should find himself on the 40-man
roster this winter with a spot on the Iowa-to-Chicago shuttle permanently
reserved for him.
37. RP
Starling Peralta
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 45
Risk: 4
Tools: 60
FB, 50 SL, 45 command, 60 durability
Analysis: Peralta is
a big guy with a big, mid-90s fastball. Unfortunately, the command is middling
and his slider hasn't yet taken the step forward that some predicted.
Nevertheless, the Diamondbacks saw enough to take a shot on him in the Rule 5
Draft a couple of years ago, and I think there's enough here for a 7th/8th
inning guy, although Peralta does need to take a couple of steps to get there
in his mid-20s.
38. RP
James Norwood
Current
Level:
Low-A South Bend
MLB ETA: April 2018
Grade: 40
Risk: 4
Tools: 60
FB, 45 CB, 35 SL, 45 CH, 45 command, 50 durability
Analysis: Norwood
has already lost over a month to injury this year, though the type and extent
of such injury is not immediately clear. Regardless, I liked his stuff a lot at
draft time last year and I'm still plenty bullish on Norwood. But he has had
command issues, so he needs to pitch.
39. CF
Kevonte Mitchell
Current
Level:
Extended Spring Training (off to Short-Season Eugene soon)
MLB ETA: July 2019
Grade: 50
Risk: 5
Tools: 55
hit, 60 power, 45 discipline, 50 glove, 60 arm, 60 run, 70 durability
Analysis: Drafted as
a third baseman, Mitchell is a great athlete who runs well. Unfortunately, he's
a basketball player playing baseball, so he's extremely raw. Fortunately,
the athleticism is so good that he's looked pretty good during the transition.
The body is there to be a superstar, but there's probably a 1-in-1,000 chance
of that actually happening. Still, if he can continue converting bits of his
athleticism into useful baseball skills, he'll be a great get. Pitch
recognition will be the big concern here.
40. RF
Jeffrey Baez
Current
Level:
Low-A South Bend
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 40
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
hit, 55 power, 45 discipline, 55 glove, 55 arm, 50 run, 70
durability
Analysis: The other
Baez still has plenty of skills and looks the part, but the wheels have come
off thus far in 2015. Baez is striking out far less, but the has completely
stopped hitting for any power in addition to poor on-base ability thus far.
It's a bad time for a lost year.
41. CF
Darryl "DJ" Wilson
Current
Level:
Draftee
MLB ETA: April 2020
Grade: 40
Risk: 5
Tools: 50
hit, 30 power, 50 discipline, 50 glove, 45 arm, 60 run, 45 durability
Analysis: As I noted
in my draft recap post, Wilson will always be "Not Alonzo Jones" to
me. His swing is smooth enough and he appears to be a good, if undersized,
athlete. While he runs well, I'm not sure there's enough speed to be a real
force on the basepaths. Overall, Wilson is a rather ho-hum prospect to me and
he's extremely far from relevance.
42. SP
Ryan Kellogg
Current
Level:
Draftee
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 40
Risk: 4
Tools: 40
FB, 40 SL, 40 CB, 55 CH, 60 command, 60 durability
Analysis: Had
Kellogg been eligible for the draft after his freshman season at Arizona State,
he may very well have found himself drafted in the first two rounds. Instead,
he was a slot bonus draftee in the fifth. There's some possibility that a
mechanical adjustment enables his stuff to play up, but it's a longshot.
43. 2B
Chesny Young
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 40
Risk: 4
Tools: 60
hit, 20 power, 65 discipline, 50 glove, 40 arm, 55 run, 50 durability
Analysis: It's hard
not to notice Young. After batting .374 in college, Young carries a composite
professional batting average of .336 thus far. On top of his batting average,
he has a 9.2% BB% and just a 12.8% K%. Defensively there's not much, but he
moves well enough to handle second base...probably. But about that bat: there's
no power in it at all. He has yet to homer professionally and he hit just 11
bombs in three years at Mercer. If he keeps hitting in the mid-.300s, he'll
find himself a job. He's a name to watch for that reason alone.
44. RP PJ
Francescon
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: July 2015
Grade: 40
Risk: 2
Tools: 50 FB, 50 SL, 50 command, 65
durability
Analysis: I say the
same thing every time I do one of these updates: there's absolutely nothing
special about Francescon's stuff. There's no particular reason to think that
he's going to make it any higher than he already has. Except, thing is, I love
watching him pitch. His fastball is in the low-90s with good tail and his
slider works just fine. He's been getting people out in a swingman capacity for
years, despite not having tremendous stuff or a third pitch. I'll keep rooting
for him.
45. RP
Donn Roach
Current
Level:
Triple-A Iowa
MLB ETA: June 2015
Grade: 40
Risk: 1
Tools: 55 FB, 45 SL, 55 command, 60
durability
Analysis: Roach is
never going to strike anybody out. Not ever. But if he avoids walking people
like he has so far in 2015, he's plenty useful thanks to extreme
groundball tendencies. Roach just throws his sinker all the time and gets
opposing hitters to pound it into the zone. He doesn't have a secondary pitch
to make him anything more than a long man, but there's value in a cheap long
man nonetheless.
46. CF
Charcer Burks
Current
Level:
Low-A South Bend
MLB ETA: April 2019
Grade: 40
Risk: 5
Tools: 45 hit, 30 power, 50 discipline, 55 glove, 40 arm, 65
run, 45 durability
Analysis: The rare ninth-round pick to sign for an overslot bonus,
Burks has proven that he can run in a useful way on a baseball diamond. His
hitting has a long way to go and he absolutely must stay in center given his
arm, but Burks has the ability to grow into something more over the coming
years. For now, simply holding his own in full-season ball is enough.
47. C Rafael
Lopez
Current
Level:
Triple-A Iowa
MLB ETA: June 2015
Grade: 40
Risk: 1
Tools: 45 hit, 30 power, 55 discipline, 50 glove, 50 arm, 30
run, 50 durability
Analysis: I debated whether or not Lopez should even go on this
list: he reached the Majors last year, and the disappearance of his power
really limits his ceiling. But there's something to having an MLB-ready backup
catcher at Triple-A, so he gets a mention. There was a time where I could have
squinted and seen Lopez as a platoon-type. No longer, as his power has
completely vanished.
48. RP
Matt Brazis
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: June 2016
Grade: 50
Risk: 5
Tools: 60 FB, 50 SL, 45 CB, 60
command, 20 durability
Analysis: Given that the Mariners designated Justin Ruggiano for
assignment earlier this month, it's tough to see Brazis as anything other than
gravy. Brazis also comes with plenty of stuff as two usable breaking pitches
complement a big fastball with good command. But, as always, there's a catch:
Brazis simply cannot stay healthy as he missed a big chunk of college with
injuries and he's missed almost all of this year as well. Plenty of arm, but
he's not healthy enough to use it.
49. RP
Ryan McNeil
Current
Level:
Low-A South Bend
MLB ETA: April 2019
Grade: 50
Risk: 5
Tools: 50 FB, 50 SL, 40 CH, 40
command, 30 durability
Analysis: McNeil injured his elbow in Extended Spring Training in
2013, underwent Tommy John surgery, missed the entire season, and returned for
only a dozen or so inning last year in the Northwest League. Needless to say,
the former prep third-round-pick desperately needs to pitch. His risk is
through the roof - much like Brazis's - but McNeil has the benefit of time on
his side as he's still just 21. He does need to pick up the pace as his results
have underwhelmed.
50. SP
Jeremy Null
Current
Level:
Low-A South Bend
MLB ETA: July 2018
Grade: 45
Risk: 5
Tools: 50 FB, 50 SL, 45 CH, 60
command, 30 durability
Analysis: Null has pitched his way into mention on this list by
posting an absurd walk rate of 0.57 BB/9. That's just crazy. Baseball America
had listed Null as the 441st best prospect for the 2014 draft, so it's not as
though he came completely out of nowhere. That said, he'll need to prove that his
command and body can both hold up despite his massive frame.
A trio of
players just missed this list and get their own paragraph. SS Carlos Penalver
has never hit, but, by all accounts, he has the chops to handle shortstop well.
That kind of glove always hangs around. OF Bijan Rademacher has
consistently produced good numbers until hitting a wall at Double-A
this year. If he adjusts, he could make himself relevant in a reserve
outfielder capacity. And SP Kyle Twomey, a former third round pick, hasn't
officially signed as a draftee and he may elect to return to USC for his senior
year. However, if he doesn't, there's still plenty of stuff for the former
top-100 player in the class of 2012 to make some noise with a much needed
developmental step or two. SP Ryan Williams may have earned a mention had I not
seen him in person, but he has absolutely no stuff with a slider that would be
positively obliterated in the Majors.
The final
prospects to get their own mention are a quintet of draftees who appear unlikely
to sign. 3B John Cresto has a projectable body with a good-looking bat, but
he'll need five years to make it; obviously that's enough time for plenty to go
wrong. SP John Kilichowski has enough stuff, but he also can return to
Vanderbilt for his junior season, so he's loaded with leverage. SP Jared
Padgett is a big lefty with a decent arsenal likely headed for Mississippi
State. SP Fitz Stadler is a Chicago-area kid who might be bought out of a
college commitment who comes with a huge frame. And my personal favorite, 36th
rounder CF Alonzo Jones, is an absolute burner with true 80-grade power and a
good enough swing from the left side for 50+ hit and 40+ power if it works out.
He's stronger than Billy Hamilton, though obviously he'd need to develop a lot in
order for his game speed to be as useful. Any of these five would make this list.
There we
have it. The longest snapshot in history.
In closing, just to make sure everyone is drooling, here's a Top Ten Under 25 list:
1. SS Addison Russell
2. 1B Anthony Rizzo
3. 3B Kris Bryant
4. SS Javier Baez
5. SP Kyle Hendricks
6. C/OF Kyle Schwarber
7. RF Jorge Soler
8. SP Duane Underwood
9. 2B/CF Arismendy Alcantara
10. RF Eloy Jimenez
3. 3B Kris Bryant
4. SS Javier Baez
5. SP Kyle Hendricks
6. C/OF Kyle Schwarber
7. RF Jorge Soler
8. SP Duane Underwood
9. 2B/CF Arismendy Alcantara
10. RF Eloy Jimenez
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)