***Note: I wrote this post between the Packers loss and the Cardinals debacle, finalizing my edits only after the Arizona game. Just pretend it's last week when you're reading this.
I know that I'm not supposed to be happy or satisfied with a season-opening 31-23 loss to the Packers at home, and to be clear, I'm not. I am, however, pleasantly surprised after having imagined that the club would be completely trounced by Green Bay's powerful offense.
In the end, the Bears' defense proved no match for the Packers' attack, surrendering points on all but two possessions, and allowing Aaron Rodgers to post a sizzling QBR of 94.4, second to only explosive Titans' rookie Marcus Mariota. Only one NFL QB posted a QBR of higher than 77.4 last season (Dallas' Tony Romo at 83.6), so Rodgers' showing was truly exceptional...though it was, remarkably, a bit lower than last year's 98.2 in Green Bay's visit to Chicago. I guess that qualifies as improvement?
Anyway, the Bears' defense was truly dreadful, not even registering a single hit on Rodgers on the afternoon. It's going to be a painfully long season on that side of the ball.
On the other hand, the Chicago offense showed much of the promise that fans hoped for from the 2014 unit despite the worsened offensive line and the hobbled receiving corps. Jay Cutler played a strong game, at least until his backbreaking interception late in the fourth quarter. Still, the running of Matt Forte and the excellent run blocking of the offensive line provides reason for hope on that side of the ball.
With all of that said: the 2015 Bears aren't going anywhere. A wildly successful coaching job by John Fox, Adam Gase, and Vic Fangio will be required in order to keep the club from picking in the top ten in the 2016 draft. The 2015 team is going to lose a lot of games.
2016? The 2016 club could have some promise, but the inevitable divorce from Jay Cutler is coming, and with his dead money charge dropping from approximately $29M to $13M next year, I suspect that Cutler will be out of work in March. Cutler absolutely showed signs of growing into a top-tier starting quarterback from 2010-13, but between a slew of injuries and reversion to old, devastating habits, that dream was never fully realized. The 2016 Bears figure to have a new quarterback, and new quarterbacks almost never mean success.
So, to me, 2017 is the first time the Bears can hope to truly reach a high level of success. It will take lots and lots of work, especially from Fangio as he looks to build a defense from almost nothing, so here's a look at what general manager Ryan Pace might do in order to build that 2017 club examining each position and its relative need between now and then with the level of need indicating ranging from 1 (minimal need) to 10 (overwhelmingly desperate need).
Specialists
Current Players: Robbie Gould (K), Pat O'Donnell (P), Thomas Gafford (LS)
2017 Players: Gould (K), O'Donnell (P), UNKNOWN (LS)
Level of Need: 1
Analysis: Gould is signed through 2017 with a manageable cap hit, and he continues to be among the most productive kickers in the league. O'Donnell is also signed through 2017 on his rookie deal, and he has produced effectively. While Gafford may or may not be the long snapper who sticks around, I have no doubt that the club can find a viable long snapper to fill the role.
The specialists are locked in.
Running Back
Current Players: Matt Forte, Jeremy Langford, Jacquizz Rodgers, Ka'Deem Carey
2017 Players: Forte, Langford, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 1
Analysis: It probably seems strange to see a "1" above, but my expectation is that the Bears will give Forte a 2-3 year extension to keep him in orange and blue for the rest of his career. That may be an ill-advised choice given the aging curves of running backs, but Forte remains an elite back. Langford should have no trouble sticking around thanks to his speed and experience in a pro-style offense.
I'll be surprised if Carey lasts beyond this season; indeed, he likely only made this roster as a result of the injury to Senorise Perry at the end of the preseason. Still, with Forte and Langford likely on the roster moving forward, there's no real sense in addressing this position with assets.
If Forte leaves in free agency or unexpectedly retires, this need probably only jumps to a 4 given that Langford appears well-equipped to handle a feature back job.
Center
Current Players: Will Montgomery, Hroniss Grasu
2017 Players: Grasu
Level of Need: 1
Analysis: Grasu was undoubtedly drafted by this regime to be the 2016 center; we sure better hope he handles that job in 2017, too.
Nose Tackle
Current Players: Jeremiah Ratliff, Eddie Goldman
2017 Players: Goldman, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 2
Analysis: Much like Grasu, Goldman was drafted to fill this exact job. Here's hoping he was the right pick (he was on my short list, so I hope so, too!). He will need a backup, but that should come from a late-round draft pick or an undrafted rookie.
Wide Receiver
Current Players: Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White, Eddie Royal, Marquess Wilson, Marc Mariani, Josh Bellamy
2017 Players: Jeffery, White, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 4
Analysis: This is a similar spot to the running back position group. I fully expect that the Bears will extend Jeffery with a deal that is similar to those signed by Dez Bryant, TY Hilton, Julio Jones, and AJ Green, Jeffery's peers. Such a deal would be somewhere in the range of $70M over five years with approximately $40M guaranteed. John Fox and Adam Gase enjoyed their greatest success when pairing Demaryius Thomas with Eric Decker, so I suspect that they will seek out the opportunity to replicate that lineup in Chicago, especially considering that the Bears will have the cap space necessary to do so.
If Jeffery leaves, this need jump up to a 9 as White is the only player with a reasonable level of certainty to stick on this roster. Royal effectively has a $5M team option for 2017, and given that a different quarterback will be in town, picking it up is unlikely to make a whole lot of sense unless Royal really explodes this year or next.
Tight End
Current Players: Martellus Bennett, Zach Miller, Khari Lee, Gannon Sinclair
2017 Players: Lee, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 6
Analysis: Bennett is clearly the star of this group, but his desire for a new contract and the team's unwillingness to meet his demands suggest that a divorce is likely coming in the future, either via trade or upon the expiration of his deal following the 2016 season. There will be a number of enticing options on the free agent market following the 2016 season including Miami's Jordan Cameron, Bennett, and Cincinnati's Tyler Eifert. It's entirely possible that the Bears will in fact leverage their 2016 control of Bennett into a somewhat friendly extension. Otherwise, the club will need to find a new featured tight end between now and 2017.
Defensive End
Current Players: Ego Ferguson, Jarvis Jenkins, Cornelius Washington, Will Sutton
2017 Players: Ferguson, Sutton, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 7
Analysis: Ferguson was one of the big beneficiaries of the switch from a 4-3 base defense to a 3-4 base (though query what that actually means given that the Bears spent just three snaps on Sunday in their 3-4 formation). While Ferguson looked to be a decent 4-3 defensive tackle, he is built much more ideally to play the end spot in a 3-4. With continued growth, he could very well lock down one of these jobs.
Sutton was much better suited to play the 4-3, and though strong special teams play and a few big moments this preseason kept him on the roster, he is unlikely to fit as a 3-4 end in the long term, though he could nonetheless serve as a useful reserve throughout his rookie contract.
Washington hasn't been able to get himself on the field, though his bodily transformation this offseason at least keeps him in the conversation. Jenkins is a stopgap.
No beating around the bush, here: the Bears need at least one new starter and at least one additional reserve at defensive end.
Safety
Current Players: Antrel Rolle, Adrian Amos, Ryan Mundy, Demontre Hurst, Brock Vereen, Harold Jones-Quartey
2017 Players: Amos, Vereen, Jones-Quartey, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 8
Analysis: The presence of three names above is somewhat deceptive: only Amos figures to have a real shot at starting going forward. I never understood what the Emery regime saw in Vereen and apparently the Pace regime doesn't either as Vereen got just one defensive snap in the opener. Nevertheless, he was a core special teamer and on a rookie deal, he could stick around.
Jones-Quartey is a Division II success story for even making the active roster, but his preseason play suggests that he could play his way into a substitute job.
Regardless, a starter is needed here in addition to another depth body.
Guard
Current Players: Matt Slauson, Vladimir Ducasse, Patrick Omameh
2017 Players: Slauson, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 8
Analysis: Slauson would be in the final year of his deal in 2017 if he makes it that far, though his cap charge only escalates $100K per season so continued production makes his presence on the roster a reasonable bet.
Ducasse will be gone and Omameh never looked that good at Michigan; a legitimate NFL career from him would be a big surprise.
The "8" need above assumes that Kyle Long will be left at right tackle. If he moves back inside, this drops to a 2.
Offensive Tackle
Current Players: Jermon Bushrod, Kyle Long, Charles Leno, Jr., Tayo Fabuluje
2017 Players: Bushrod, Long, Leno, Fabuluje
Level of Need: 8
Analysis: It might seem really odd to have the same four names listed above and nonetheless list the need as an "8," but in the case of the Bears' tackles, it makes sense.
Bushrod will be a 33-year-old in the final year of his deal in 2017, and there's a very good chance he gets cut loose following the 2016 season. Long is just a single game into his experiment at right tackle, and he could find himself back at guard in a few weeks; he'll also need an extension by 2017. Leno and Fabuluje are both massive projects with very little likelihood of success.
If Bushrod is the left tackle in 2017, he's probably in the bottom quartile of starters at his position, an alarming development for a potential new quarterback.
Outside Linebacker
Current Players: Pernell McPhee, Lamarr Houston, Jared Allen, Willie Young
2017 Players: McPhee, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 9
Analysis: The 3-4 defense doesn't work without pressure from the pass rushing outside linebackers. McPhee was a monstrous rusher around the edge in Baltimore, and I suspect that the Pace regime will ride with McPhee for years as a result. Here's hoping that the results match the pay.
Houston, on the other hand, was an Emery-era acquisition and his dead money charge drops in a big way next year as he has a $6.99M cap charge if he's on the roster in 2016 but just $2.97M in dead money if he is released. It's still reasonable to have hope for Houston playing his way into a big-time role given his past success in Oakland, but he played just four snaps in the opener. It seems unlikely that the current regime is interested in having him around.
Allen will be cut immediately following the season when his contract allows for his release without any dead money, and Young will likely find his way out of town despite a $666,668 charge thanks to his awkward fit in the 3-4.
The 2017 Bears need at least two rotation outside linebackers and a third depth piece. They're really going to have to target this spot.
Cornerback
Current Players: Kyle Fuller, Alan Ball, Tracy Porter, Sherrick McManis, Terrance Mitchell, Bryce Callahan
2017 Players: Fuller, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: As badly as the club needs outside linebackers, there is seemingly no position of greater need than cornerback (seemingly because, well, there's yet another defensive position coming next!). This need rating would be a 9.9 if I used decimals. In the new NFL, the nickelback is more of a starter than the extra linebacker is, and the Bears simply don't have the necessary bodies in the defensive backfield. Fuller is a true building block on the back end, but that's it. Mitchell is the only other player in this group with any real chance of sticking around in 2017, and he is decidedly a longshot.
The Bears need two starters and three depth pieces. They're going to add a lot of cornerbacks making this a position to watch in both free agency and the draft.
Inside Linebacker
Current Players: Shea McClellin, Christian Jones, Jon Bostic, John Timu, Lamin Barrow
2017 Players: UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: It's not hard to slap a "10" on this group. McClellin was a marvelous bust from what turned out to be a spectacularly poor second half of the first round in the 2012 draft. Jones has been a success story of sorts, an undrafted free agent who played his way into the starting lineup, albeit without much success to this point. While he could continue to grow, he will be a free agent following the 2016 season. Bostic, like McClellin, has been a disastrous flop despite showcasing his tremendous athleticism at times. Timu and Barrow are both bottom-of-the-roster fodder with special teams ceilings.
As bleak as the outlook is at defensive end and cornerback, there are literally no bodies on the current roster who figure to occupy inside linebacking jobs in 2017. Wow.
Quarterback
Current Players: Jay Cutler, Jimmy Clausen
2017 Players: UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: It's obviously easiest to throw out a "10" here. Even if Jay Cutler somehow survives next March and makes his way onto the Bears roster in 2016 (his $13M in dead money versus his $17M cap charge will go a long way there), his $2M in dead money in 2017 makes him a goner. Clausen is an easily replaceable backup.
The Bears need a quarterback, in part so that they can get someone else to play under center and in part to signal the final change to a new era.
I will never speak poorly of Cutler. His toughness and his arm strength have endeared him to me in spite of his propensity for throwing backbreaking interceptions and other ill-advised tosses into heavy coverage. The 2010 season was a blast, and Jay took an absolute beating all year to get the club into January. The 2011 season looked like his finest work to date until he broke his thumb and it all came crashing down on Caleb Hanie. The 2012 year was also spectacular until a concussion derailed the campaign. Yet still, in 2013, Jay looked like an ace quarterback playing for a team with absolutely no semblance of a defense. 2014 was a nightmare.
I expect that Jay will play tough this year and that he'll post some nice numbers thanks to a strong collection of weapons and a capable, average offensive line.
But I don't expect him to be the guy in 2017 when the team has a real shot at winning big again.
Interlude
It may seem alarmist to have so many high numbers, but I think that's just the reality of being such a poor team devoid of young talent. There are tons of holes that need to be filled. On the bright side, outside of Alshon Jeffery and Kyle Long, there aren't any players on the roster who will need a big-money extension in the near future and there are some seriously big-money deals that figure to come off of the books in the upcoming seasons (Allen, Cutler, Houston). The team should have plenty of cap space with which to supplement their upcoming draft classes.
Players to Target
This list could be seemingly endless given the amount of turnover that occurs on NFL rosters every year. Accordingly, let's first start with a look at the projected roster in a simpler format.
QB: UNK, UNK
RB: Forte, Langford, UNK, UNK
TE: UNK, Lee, UNK, UNK
OT: Bushrod, Long, Leno, Fabuluje
G: Slauson, UNK, UNK
C: Grasu
DE: Ferguson, UNK, Sutton, UNK
NT: Goldman, UNK
OLB: McPhee, UNK, UNK, UNK
ILB: UNK, UNK, UNK, UNK, UNK
CB: Fuller, UNK, UNK, UNK, UNK, UNK
S: UNK, Amos, Vereen, Jones-Quartey, UNK
SP: Gould, O'Donnell, UNK
And similarly, here is a slightly more confusing list of the needs by individual roster spot. For example, QB1 is a "10" whereas QB2 is a "3," accenting the difference in need between a starting QB and a backup.
10: QB1, ILB1, CB2
9: OLB2
8: G2, ILB2, CB3, S1
7: DE2
6: TE1, CB4
5: OLB3
4: ILB3
3: QB2
2: NT2
1: RB3, RB4, TE3, TE4, G3, DE4, OLB4, ILB4, ILB5, CB5, CB6, S5, LS1
Though it wasn't my intent, the divide between the positions listed in 1-5 and 6-10 provides a nice breaking point for looking at those positions that can likely be filled late in free agency or with depth draftees versus those positions that need more meaningful assets thrown at them.
Let's take a detailed look at the following positions: QB, ILB, CB, OLB, G, S, and DE.
QB
2016 Free Agents: Sam Bradford (Philadelphia)
2016 Draft Prospects: Connor Cook (Michigan St.), Christian Hackenberg (Penn St.), Cardale Jones (Ohio St.), Jared Goff (Cal)
2017 Free Agents: Drew Brees (New Orleans), Peyton Manning (ha!) (Denver)
2017 Draft Prospects: Deshaun Watson (Clemson), Kyle Allen (Texas A&M)
Analysis: The upcoming free agent classes are littered with reserve quarterbacks like Drew Stanton, Chad Henne, Kirk Cousins, and plenty of other guys who didn't play their college ball in Michigan. However, the only true option in free agency is Brees and even he is unlikely to leave New Orleans.
Thus, the Bears' new QB1 will either come via trade (yikes) or the draft. Thankfully, the 2016 draft class figures to feature four quarterbacks worth of selection in the first round. None of the quarterbacks come without serious red flags - Cook has accuracy problems, Jones has only a handful of collegiate starts, Hackenberg has been seriously stunted by a porous offensive line, and Goff comes with the stigma of having quarterbacked a Cal team to a 1-11 season as a freshman - but any of them would qualify as viable cornerstones around which to build the next contender in Chicago.
ILB
2016 Free Agents: Sean Weatherspoon (Arizona), Danny Trevathan (Denver), Brandon Marshall (Denver)
2016 Draft Prospects: Jaylon Smith (Notre Dame), Reggie Ragland (Alabama), Kendell Beckwith (LSU), Terrance Smith (Florida St.)
2017 Free Agents: Kiko Alonso (Philaelphia), Lawrence Timmons (Pittsburgh), Manti Te'o (San Diego)
2017 Draft Prospects: Reggie Northrup (Florida St.), Raekwon McMillan (Ohio St.), Tre Williams (Auburn), Reuben Foster (Alabama)
Analysis: It's a strange time for linebackers. As football has turned into a much more passing oriented game, linebackers find themselves in a point of transition. Defensive linemen are primarily valued for the ability to rush the passer while defensive backs earn their keep by stopping would-be pass catchers, not helping out in run support. Linebackers have seen their need for speed explode in this new era, and 3-4 inside linebackers are certainly no exception.
While there are no stars set to hit the market in March, both Trevathan and Marshall cut their teeth playing for John Fox in Denver, and as the Broncos prepare for life after Peyton Manning, I suspect that one of them (mercifully) finds their way onto the Bears' roster. Nevertheless, the abject of failure of Jon Bostic should leave the Bears seeking out at least one additional inside 'backer in next year's draft.
CB
2016 Free Agents: Leon Hall (Cincinnati), Prince Amukamara (New York Giants)
2016 Draft Prospects: Vernon Hargreaves III (Florida), Jalen Ramsey (Florida St.), Kendall Fuller (Virginia Tech), Tre'Davious White (LSU), Cameron Sutton (Tennessee)
2017 Free Agents: Jamar Taylor (Miami), Stephon Gillmore (Buffalo), Dre Kirkpatrick (Cincinnati), D.J. Hayden (Oakland)
2017 Draft Prospects: Tony Connor (Mississippi), Jalen Tabor (Florida), Adoree Jackson (USC)
Analysis: The Bears' need in the defensive backfield is extreme, but unfortunately, the free agent pickings are relatively slim. The Bears enjoyed a decade of strong play at cornerback during the reign of Peanut Tillman as he partnered first with Nathan "The Interceptor" Vasher and later with Tim Jennings to form a strong tandem. While the hope remains that Kyle Fuller can form half of a top duo, he is doing it alone at this point. The Bears will be hard pressed to pass on any of the draft-eligible players listed above if they are available after the first round. Depending on the success of the 2015 Bears, they may even find themselves making a play for Hargreaves, Fuller, or Ramsey in May.
OLB
2016 Free Agents: Von Miller (Denver), Tamba Hali (Kansas City), Courtney Upshaw (Baltimore)
2016 Draft Prospects: Joey Bosa (Ohio St.), Scooby Wright III (Arizona), Myles Garrett (Texas A&M), Emmanuel Ogbah (Oklahoma St.), Shilique Calhoun (Michigan St.)
2017 Free Agents: Dont'a Hightower (New England), Melvin Ingram (San Diego), Quinton Coples (New York Jets)
2017 Draft Prospects: Da'Shawn Hand (Alabama), Devonte Fields (Louisville), Leonard Floyd (Georgia)
Analysis: The Bears' need in the defensive backfield is extreme, but unfortunately, the free agent pickings are relatively slim. The Bears enjoyed a decade of strong play at cornerback during the reign of Peanut Tillman as he partnered first with Nathan "The Interceptor" Vasher and later with Tim Jennings to form a strong tandem. While the hope remains that Kyle Fuller can form half of a top duo, he is doing it alone at this point. The Bears will be hard pressed to pass on any of the draft-eligible players listed above if they are available after the first round. Depending on the success of the 2015 Bears, they may even find themselves making a play for Hargreaves, Fuller, or Ramsey in May if the club is drafting outside of the top five.
G (but really T)
2016 Free Agents: Russell Okung (Seattle), Andre Smith (Cincinnati), Andrew Whitworth (Cincinnati)
2016 Draft Prospects: Ronnie Stanley (Notre Dame), Laremy Tunsil (Mississippi), Jack Conklin (Michigan St.), Taylor Decker (Ohio St.), Tyler Johnstone (Oregon)
2017 Free Agents: Matt Kalil (Minnesota), Phil Loadholt (Minnesota), Riley Reiff (Detroit), Eric Fisher (Kansas City), Luke Joeckel (Jacksonville)
2017 Draft Prospects: Cam Robinson (Alabama), Germain Ifedi (Texas A&M), Jerald Hawkins (LSU)
Analysis: While the position of need is technically guard, there's no real sense in acquiring a guard prospect instead of a tackle. Bushrod is nearing the end of the line with a back injury beginning to slow him down while Long is almost certainly best situated in the interior. Accordingly, every name listed above is that of a tackle.
Thankfully for the Bears, this is a very good time to be in the market for an offensive tackle. While the team would be hard-pressed to pass up the chance to grab a potential franchise signal caller in the top five of the 2016 draft, a slightly more successful season could leave the top quarterbacks off the board by the time the Bears draft with one of Stanley or Tunsil potentially available. Either would be a marvelous choice. With a few prominent options hitting free agency over the next couple of years and a half dozen compelling draft prospects, this could be an area that the Bears address by taking advantage of the depth in the marketplace.
S
2016 Free Agents: Eric Weddle (San Diego), Eric Berry (Kansas City), Tashaun Gipson (Cleveland)
2016 Draft Prospects: Jalen Mills (LSU), Darian Thompson (Boise St.), Nate Andrews (Florida St.), Karl Joseph (West Virginia)
2017 Free Agents: Reshad Jones (Miami), Harrison Smith (Minnesota), Malcolm Jenkins (Philadelphia), Eric Reid (San Francisco)
2017 Draft Prospects: Vonn Bell (Ohio St.), Max Redfield (Notre Dame), Jayron Kearse (Clemson), Orion Stewart (Baylor)
Analysis: There are a couple of truly excellent safeties hitting the free agent market this winter, but it remains to be seen if the new regime will commit the resources necessary to solving a decades-long problem spot instead of attempting to fix the position with band-aids. I would be particularly interested in Mills as a Day Two selection this year, appreciating fully that a big year from Mills will likely vault him into the first round. Still, he has the type of athleticism that the Bears have lacked at the position since the departure of the occasionally brilliant yet inconsistent Danieal Manning.
Regardless of the club's approach to the position, it's clear that there is a lot of pressure riding on Adrian Amos.
DE
2016 Free Agents: Muhammad Wilkerson (New York Jets), Letroy Guion (Green Bay)
2016 Draft Prospects: A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama), Adolphus Washington (Ohio St.), Chris Jones (Mississippi St.), Robert Nkemdiche (Mississippi), Shawn Oakman (Baylor), Anthony Zettel (Penn St.)
2017 Free Agents: Sheldon Richardson (New York Jets), Calais Campbell (Arizona), Fletcher Cox (Philadelphia), Datone Jones (Green Bay)
2017 Draft Prospects: Andrew Billings (Baylor), Jonathan Allen (Alabama), Jonathan Bullard (Florida), Montravious Adams (Auburn)
Analysis: As was the case at offensive tackle, there are actually a bevy of compelling options to man the all-important 3-4 DE spot reaching the marketplace in the coming years. The Bears will have plenty of flexibility in filling this spot as collegiate defensive tackles and NFL DEs can both fit the bill.
My Ideal Scenario
That was a ton of information, but the entire point of this monstrous post was to get here: my vision for crafting the 2017 Bears into a real contender.
While I'd love to trade off superfluous parts for late-round draft picks, I'm going to approach this assuming that the Bears have their full allotment of picks (excluding the 2017 sixth-rounder sent to Houston for TE Khari Lee) and that they don't acquire or lose any picks in either draft class.
2016 Offseason
Players to Cut (cap charge)
OLB Jared Allen ($0)
OLB Willie Young ($666,668)
ILB Jon Bostic ($311,509)
SS Antrel Rolle ($0)
Allen and Rolle are no-brainers are past-their-prime players due too much cash and cap space. Young is unfortunate, but it's tough to see him rebounding from such a serious injury and fitting well into a 3-4 defense. Bostic is an incredibly disappointing outcome, but for a player that can't get on the field, the $942,381 of cap space that his release would create is probably his best use to the team. Such a letdown.
And then there's Jay. He can stick around for 2016 if he plays exceptionally well in 2015 as his dead money charge drops from $13M in 2016 to $2M in 2017, but if the Bears draft a quarterback in 2016, it probably makes more sense to send Jay packing and complete the turning of the page. This will be one of the defining choices of the Ryan Pace era, and I think he'll keep Cutler around for 2016 instead of burning 2016 on a rookie or a journeyman. I just don't know.
(NOTE: watching Jimmy Clausen run the Bears' offense, it seems likely that Cutler will be back next year. The drop off from Jay to the readily available NFL QBs is massive.)
Players to Re-Sign
RB Matt Forte
WR Alshon Jeffery
Forte's contract is genuinely difficult to peg whereas Jeffery's is incredibly easy. Marshawn Lynch, who is the same age as Forte and similarly productive, secured a two-year, $24M extension. I think that such a deal would be a mostly palatable option to the Bears and Forte, though Forte will have more leverage as an impending free agent. Accordingly, I could see a three-year, $35M extension getting the job done with the following structure:
2016: $9M base, $3M roster bonus (guaranteed)
2017: $10M base (guaranteed)
2018: $10M base, $3M roster bonus (no guarantees)
The Bears give Forte a much larger guarantee ($22M) than Lynch, but they effectively just give him a two-year, $22M deal with a roster bonus early in 2018 to allow him to hit free agency, as appropriate, if he is released.
Jeffery is simple. Here are the extensions recently signed by other top young receivers:
AJ Green: 4 years, $60M ($32.75M guaranteed)
Julio Jones: 5 years, $71.3M ($47M guaranteed)
TY Hilton: 5 years, $65M ($28M guaranteed)
Jeffery isn't quite as good as Green or Jones, but he is better than Hilton, though Alshon comes with significant injury concerns. Accordingly, I expect the following deal with Alshon:
Signing Bonus: $12M
2016: $5M base, $2M roster bonus (fully guaranteed)
2017: $8M base (fully guaranteed)
2018: $5M base, $4M roster bonus (base guaranteed)
2019: $13M base (no guarantees)
2020: $14M base, $2M roster bonus (no guarantees)
The total guarantee reaches $32M and the year by year cap hit is $9.4M, $10.4M, $11.4M, $15.4M, and $18.4M. It would be reported as a 5 year, $65M deal with $32M guaranteed.
Given the number of comparables, this shouldn't be the toughest deal to execute.
Players to Sign
ILB Brandon Marshall: 5 years, $30M ($12M guaranteed)
OT Andre Smith: 4 years, $24M ($8M guaranteed)
Marshall is a tricky a player, a thrice-waiver undrafted free agent who exploded onto the scene recently. This contract essentially values him like Pernell McPhee, albeit with Marshall at a slightly less expensive position. The breakdown:
Signing Bonus: $2.5M
2016: $4M base (fully guaranteed)
2017: $5M base, $0.5M roster bonus (base guaranteed)
2018: $5M base (no guarantee)
2019: $5.5M base (no guarantee)
2020: $7M base (no guarantee)
Smith, on the other hand, is on the way down in his career with the Bengals ready to cut bait as evidenced by their drafting back-to-back tackles last May. This deal would give him a chance to reestablish himself as a viable starting tackle. The breakdown:
Signing Bonus: $2M
2016: $4M base (guaranteed)
2017: $2M base, $2M roster bonus (base guaranteed)
2018: $6M base (no guarantee)
2019: $8M base (no guarantee)
Obviously the Bears would fill out the roster with cheaper players, but I'm not going through the Terrance Mitchells and the Alan Balls of the football world here.
Draft Dream
I'm assuming that the Bears end up with the fifth overall pick, as I projected before the season began. That will almost certainly be wrong, but I'm going to roll with it.
R1: OLB Joey Bosa (Ohio St.)
R2: S Jalen Mills (LSU)
R3: DE Anthony Zettel (Penn St.)
R4: CB Eric Murray (Minnesota)
R5: ILB Terrance Smith (Florida St.)
R6: TE Johnny Mundt (Oregon)
R7: CB Blake Countess (Auburn)
Holy Toledo, that's a lot of defensive players. I promise that I didn't set out to make such a class; it just worked out like that. I think it goes without saying that I would be thrilled by such a class.
2016 Snapshot in Time
This post is already absurd and nobody will ever read it, so I might as well take a moment to provide a snapshot of the 2016 roster based on these moves:
QB: Jay Cutler, ?????
RB: Matt Forte, Jeremy Langford, Ka'Deem Carey, ?????
TE: Martellus Bennett, Khari Lee, Johnny Mundt, ?????
WR: Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal, ?????
WR: Kevin White, Marquess Wilson
LT: Jermon Bushrod, Charles Leno, Jr.
LG: Matt Slauson, ?????
C: Hroniss Grasu
RG: Kyle Long
RT: Andre Smith, Tayo Fabuluje
DE: Ego Ferguson, ?????
NT: Eddie Goldman, ?????
DE: Anthony Zettel, Will Sutton
OLB: Pernell McPhee, ?????
ILB: Christian Jones, ?????
ILB: Terrance Smith, ?????
OLB: Joey Bosa, Lamarr Houston
CB: Kyle Fuller, Blake Countess, ?????
S: Jalen Mills, Brock Vereen
S: Adrian Amos, Harold Jones-Quartey, ?????
CB: Eric Murray, ?????
2017 Offseason
Players to Cut (cap charge)
QB Jay Cutler ($2M)
RB Ka'Deem Carey ($110,845)
WR Eddie Royal ($0)
OLB Lamarr Houston ($1.98M)
Obviously it's possible that any of these four players could change our perceptions of them over the next 31 games, but it's just as possible that some of them will already be gone by the time March 2017 rolls around. Cutler's exit is clearly the marquee attraction here.
Players to Re-Sign
G Kyle Long
ILB Christian Jones
Although Martellus Bennett will be a free agent, I imagine that he will find his way off of the roster before the end of the 2016 season, though I do enjoy watching him play. Long can be extended on his fifth year option at what figures to be approximately $9M. As for Jones, he may play his way off of the roster by 2017 while he may instead play his way into a restricted free agent tender. Either way, there won't be big contractual decisions to make in early 2017 for players already on the roster.
Players to Sign
WR Emmanuel Sanders: 3 years, $18M ($7M guaranteed)
OLB Quinton Coples: 3 years, $15M ($7M guaranteed)
Sanders makes oodles of sense, and I fully suspect that veterans will be fleeing Denver by March 2017. The breakdown:
Signing Bonus: $0
2017: $5M base (guaranteed)
2018: $3M base, $3M roster bonus (base guaranteed)
2019: $7M base (no guarantee)
Here's the breakdown on Coples, a converted defensive end who feels like a fringe starter and gets paid as such to play in a strong rotation with McPhee and Bosa:
Signing Bonus: $3M
2017: $3M (guaranteed)
2018: $1M base, $3M roster bonus (base guaranteed)
2019: $5M (no guarantee)
Draft Dream
R1: QB Christian Hackenberg (Penn St.)
R2: TE O.J. Howard (Alabama)
R3: CB Jalen Tabor (Florida)
R4: ILB Raekwon McMillan (Ohio St.)
R5: NT Austin Johnson (Penn St.)
R7: WR Bralon Addison (Oregon)
I promise I'm not cheating. I think Hackenberg stands a good chance to return to school for his senior season in 2016 to reestablish his stock as an elite quarterback, making millions along the way.
2017 Snapshot in Time
This is the real meat of this entire, monstrous post. The 2017 Bears:
QB: Christian Hackenberg, ?????
RB: Matt Forte, Jeremy Langford, ?????, ?????
TE: O.J. Howard, Johnny Mundt, Khari Lee, ?????
WR: Alshon Jeffery, Bralon Addison, ?????
WR: Kevin White, Emmanuel Sanders
LT: Jermon Bushrod, Charles Leno, Jr.
LG: Matt Slauson, ?????
C: Hroniss Grasu
RG: Kyle Long
RT: Andre Smith, Tayo Fabuluje
DE: Ego Ferguson, ?????
NT: Eddie Goldman, Austin Johnson
DE: Anthony Zettel, Will Sutton
OLB: Pernell McPhee, Quinton Coples
ILB: Raekwon McMillan, ?????
ILB: Terrance Smith, ?????
OLB: Joey Bosa, ?????
CB: Kyle Fuller, Blake Countess, ?????
S: Jalen Mills, Brock Vereen
S: Adrian Amos, Harold Jones-Quartey, ?????
CB: Jalen Tabor, Eric Murray
Pfew. That was a lot.
Decompress and Wrap Up
Look, there's a 0.00000000000001% chance of this happening and quite honestly, I'll be surprised if any of the moves listed above come to fruition. I do know that this exercise has largely confirmed for me what I already believed: the Bears need to add a ton of talent on their defense and a lot of that is going to come through the draft.
That said, they also need to use free agency because the amount of talent required is far greater than their allotment of picks. They need another Pernell McPhee or two, a guy who the metrics love, who the scouts like, and who was otherwise blocked by a star-level player. When you can make a short-term commitment to that kind of guy but with long-term control if it works out, you can strike it rich...or get out of a mistake quickly. That worked exceptionally well for the Bears with Adewale Ogunleye: as it turned out, he was, in fact, really good and not just a Jason Taylor-created mirage. It certainly doesn't always work out like that. But that's where the Bears should live for now.
That's enough for now. The Bears need to add a ton of players, mostly defenders, to the roster before they have a real chance to be relevant and avoid embarrassing showings like they had against the Cardinals. Here's hoping Ryan Pace makes it happen.
Tuesday, September 22, 2015
Friday, August 21, 2015
Mathematically Accurate 2015 NFL Predictions
*Back on August 14th, I posted my picks for the 2015 NFL season here. Unfortunately, I failed to perform my normal check to make sure that the records lined up. As a result, I gave the league a composite record of 241-271. Ouch. So below, please find a revised post that accounts for the fact that the league, as a whole, has to play .500 ball. I can't change the basic predictions - for example, no accounting for Philip Rivers having already received his extension or Kelvin Benjamin being out for the year for the Panthers - but the records and the draft order are updated as appropriate. The playoff tree is unchanged.
We're in the midst of the first week of the NFL preseason, but for me, it's still all about baseball. The Cubs are playing their best baseball in decades, with September relevance assured and a playoff odds percentage that is creeping up toward 90%.
Nevertheless, I love the Chicago Bears and I want nothing but greatness for them. With last night's preseason opener in the books, it's time to throw out my picks for this season. I'm sure that there will be a slew of injuries throughout the rest of the preseason that seriously impact these records, but the beauty of prognostication is that even the best mathematical systems miss an awful lot.
So using nothing but my gut and my brain, here goes!
NFC NORTH
Green Bay (12-4): Aaron Rodgers + Mike McCarthy + Ted Thompson = see you in January.
Minnesota (11-5): Teddy's offense and Zimmer's defense will win lots of games with this deep roster.
Detroit (8-8): With Ndamukong Suh and Dominic Raiola gone, the Lions need to find a new identity. Unfortunately for them, an 0-4 start (@ SD, @ MIN, v. DEN, @ SEA) will be too much to overcome.
Chicago (4-12): They'll be exciting on offense and brutal on defense; this record is mostly a reflection of their extremely strong division.
NFC SOUTH
Carolina (9-7): Cam Newton, gigantic slow receivers, and a defense. That's enough here.
Atlanta (8-8): This team keeps living in mediocrity, even with Julio Jones and Roddy White wreaking havoc.
New Orleans (6-10): The Brees era is heading for a screaming thud. Their cap management finally catches up to them this year.
Tampa Bay (5-11): Watch out for these guys in December and 2016 onward. A Lovie Smith defense + Jameis Winston's offense can be special. It'll just take a bit of time.
NFC WEST
Seattle (12-4): Because duh.
Arizona (10-6): Way too much defensive ability here now to not reach January.
St. Louis (9-7): Much like Detroit, the schedule makes it too tough right away. Talent is here.
San Francisco (4-12): Oh dear.
NFC EAST
Philadelphia (11-5): Chip makes his move.
Dallas (7-9): When the hype machine calms down, another flawed 'boys team will emerge.
New York (6-10): There's already no offensive line. It's only getting worse on that side of the ball.
Washington (3-13): It'll get better at some point, D.C. fans.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore (10-6): Harbaugh, Flacco, and Co. eek out just enough.
Cincinnati (9-7): They're just so consistently decent.
Pittsburgh (8-8): They're basically the same as Baltimore and Cincinnati, but somebody gets the short stick.
Cleveland (4-12): Still no direction and lots of problems.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis (13-3): A 6-0 division record is nearly locked in.
Houston (9-7): I still love Bill O'Brien, and adding Clowney makes that defense formidable.
Jacksonville (6-10): Rather quietly, GM David Caldwell has given QB Blake Bortles a bevy of weapons. Allen Robinson is about to explode onto the scene.
Tennessee (3-13): They are really, really awful.
AFC WEST
Denver (10-6): These Broncos are flawed, but so is the competition.
San Diego (10-6): Rivers got his contract, but I can't change the basic idea: tons of yards.
Kansas City (8-8): Andy Reid and the defense keep it respectable.
Oakland (5-11): Getting better, I suppose, but just barely.
AFC EAST
New England (12-4): Just because. Belichick and angry Brady? It's too obvious.
Miami (10-6): They've got their problems, but Tannehill takes another step with an improved defense.
Buffalo (8-8): Loads of weapons, no quarterback.
New York (6-10): Incredible collection of defensive talent, absolutely no quarterback play.
PLAYOFF TREE
Minnesota over Carolina
Philadelphia over Arizona
Denver over Miami
Baltimore over San Diego
Green Bay over Minnesota
Seattle over Philadelphia
New England over Denver
Indianapolis over Baltimore
Green Bay over Seattle
Indianapolis over New England
Green Bay over Indianapolis
2016 DRAFT ORDER
1. Tennessee
2. Washington
3. San Francisco
4. Cleveland
5. Chicago
6. Oakland
7. Tampa Bay
8. New York Jets
9. New Orleans
10. Jacksonville
11. New York Giants
12. Dallas
13. Atlanta
14. Pittsburgh
15. Buffalo
16. Kansas City
17. Detroit
18. St. Louis
19. Houston
20. Cincinnati
21. Carolina
22. Miami
23. San Diego
24. Arizona
25. Baltimore
26. Denver
27. Minnesota
28. Philadelphia
29. Seattle
30. Indianapolis
31. Green Bay
(*New England is currently slated to surrender their first-round pick as punishment for the Deflategate scandal.)
With those picks made, here are a handful of additional thoughts that I have about this season:
1. The Vikings are going to announce their arrival as a contender, and they'll stay there for the rest of this decade.
2. The NFC North and NFC West will be the class of the NFL this year; even the fourth-place finishers (Chicago and San Francisco, respectively) will play nearly average football.
3. Aaron Rodgers will run away with the MVP award.
4. No team in the AFC North holds a division lead of greater than one game all year; the Ravens knock off the Steelers in Week 16 prior to a Week 17 upset in Cincinnati that punches their playoff ticket.
5. Andrew Luck will make the leap from "elite young QB" to "elite QB."
6. The 2016 pre-draft offseason will be one for the ages as the Tennessee Titans will hold arguably the most highly-sought-after top pick in history with Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg the clear top choice and the next five clubs - Washington, San Francisco, Cleveland, Chicago, and Oakland - all desperately in need of a franchise signal-caller.
We're in the midst of the first week of the NFL preseason, but for me, it's still all about baseball. The Cubs are playing their best baseball in decades, with September relevance assured and a playoff odds percentage that is creeping up toward 90%.
Nevertheless, I love the Chicago Bears and I want nothing but greatness for them. With last night's preseason opener in the books, it's time to throw out my picks for this season. I'm sure that there will be a slew of injuries throughout the rest of the preseason that seriously impact these records, but the beauty of prognostication is that even the best mathematical systems miss an awful lot.
So using nothing but my gut and my brain, here goes!
NFC NORTH
Green Bay (12-4): Aaron Rodgers + Mike McCarthy + Ted Thompson = see you in January.
Minnesota (11-5): Teddy's offense and Zimmer's defense will win lots of games with this deep roster.
Detroit (8-8): With Ndamukong Suh and Dominic Raiola gone, the Lions need to find a new identity. Unfortunately for them, an 0-4 start (@ SD, @ MIN, v. DEN, @ SEA) will be too much to overcome.
Chicago (4-12): They'll be exciting on offense and brutal on defense; this record is mostly a reflection of their extremely strong division.
NFC SOUTH
Carolina (9-7): Cam Newton, gigantic slow receivers, and a defense. That's enough here.
Atlanta (8-8): This team keeps living in mediocrity, even with Julio Jones and Roddy White wreaking havoc.
New Orleans (6-10): The Brees era is heading for a screaming thud. Their cap management finally catches up to them this year.
Tampa Bay (5-11): Watch out for these guys in December and 2016 onward. A Lovie Smith defense + Jameis Winston's offense can be special. It'll just take a bit of time.
NFC WEST
Seattle (12-4): Because duh.
Arizona (10-6): Way too much defensive ability here now to not reach January.
St. Louis (9-7): Much like Detroit, the schedule makes it too tough right away. Talent is here.
San Francisco (4-12): Oh dear.
NFC EAST
Philadelphia (11-5): Chip makes his move.
Dallas (7-9): When the hype machine calms down, another flawed 'boys team will emerge.
New York (6-10): There's already no offensive line. It's only getting worse on that side of the ball.
Washington (3-13): It'll get better at some point, D.C. fans.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore (10-6): Harbaugh, Flacco, and Co. eek out just enough.
Cincinnati (9-7): They're just so consistently decent.
Pittsburgh (8-8): They're basically the same as Baltimore and Cincinnati, but somebody gets the short stick.
Cleveland (4-12): Still no direction and lots of problems.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis (13-3): A 6-0 division record is nearly locked in.
Houston (9-7): I still love Bill O'Brien, and adding Clowney makes that defense formidable.
Jacksonville (6-10): Rather quietly, GM David Caldwell has given QB Blake Bortles a bevy of weapons. Allen Robinson is about to explode onto the scene.
Tennessee (3-13): They are really, really awful.
AFC WEST
Denver (10-6): These Broncos are flawed, but so is the competition.
San Diego (10-6): Rivers got his contract, but I can't change the basic idea: tons of yards.
Kansas City (8-8): Andy Reid and the defense keep it respectable.
Oakland (5-11): Getting better, I suppose, but just barely.
AFC EAST
New England (12-4): Just because. Belichick and angry Brady? It's too obvious.
Miami (10-6): They've got their problems, but Tannehill takes another step with an improved defense.
Buffalo (8-8): Loads of weapons, no quarterback.
New York (6-10): Incredible collection of defensive talent, absolutely no quarterback play.
PLAYOFF TREE
Minnesota over Carolina
Philadelphia over Arizona
Denver over Miami
Baltimore over San Diego
Green Bay over Minnesota
Seattle over Philadelphia
New England over Denver
Indianapolis over Baltimore
Green Bay over Seattle
Indianapolis over New England
Green Bay over Indianapolis
2016 DRAFT ORDER
1. Tennessee
2. Washington
3. San Francisco
4. Cleveland
5. Chicago
6. Oakland
7. Tampa Bay
8. New York Jets
9. New Orleans
10. Jacksonville
11. New York Giants
12. Dallas
13. Atlanta
14. Pittsburgh
15. Buffalo
16. Kansas City
17. Detroit
18. St. Louis
19. Houston
20. Cincinnati
21. Carolina
22. Miami
23. San Diego
24. Arizona
25. Baltimore
26. Denver
27. Minnesota
28. Philadelphia
29. Seattle
30. Indianapolis
31. Green Bay
(*New England is currently slated to surrender their first-round pick as punishment for the Deflategate scandal.)
With those picks made, here are a handful of additional thoughts that I have about this season:
1. The Vikings are going to announce their arrival as a contender, and they'll stay there for the rest of this decade.
2. The NFC North and NFC West will be the class of the NFL this year; even the fourth-place finishers (Chicago and San Francisco, respectively) will play nearly average football.
3. Aaron Rodgers will run away with the MVP award.
4. No team in the AFC North holds a division lead of greater than one game all year; the Ravens knock off the Steelers in Week 16 prior to a Week 17 upset in Cincinnati that punches their playoff ticket.
5. Andrew Luck will make the leap from "elite young QB" to "elite QB."
6. The 2016 pre-draft offseason will be one for the ages as the Tennessee Titans will hold arguably the most highly-sought-after top pick in history with Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg the clear top choice and the next five clubs - Washington, San Francisco, Cleveland, Chicago, and Oakland - all desperately in need of a franchise signal-caller.
Thursday, August 20, 2015
Picking Penn State's 2015 Season
Anyone who has spoken with me in the past couple of months knows a few things about my thoughts on Nittany's upcoming season:
1. I'm not a huge James Franklin fan, though I'm certainly interested to see how he handles the program and the early returns are encouraging enough;
2. I think that the schedule lines up very favorably for the club to get on a roll in advance of late-season slugfests; and
3. I'm in love with Christian Hackenberg.
It's crazy. I'm 100% on board the Hacktrain, and I don't plan to get off for 20 years, following Hack from State College, PA to his inevitable home in Chicago, IL. It's going to be a fun run.
Of course, just talking about Hack misses the fact that there's an entire team of guys out there and the entire team has to win or lose games as a unit. So here are some very quick thoughts about the units on the team followed by a slightly more detailed look at my expectations for the schedule. I've organized these positions from weakest to strongest, meaning that we inevitably start with...
Specialists
Gulp. This group is ugly. After Sam Ficken's disastrous debut as a Freshman (that Virginia game was actually a nightmare and not something that really happened, right?), he turned into one of the Big Ten's best kickers. The fact that Ficken's final career play - an overtime extra point - won his final career game was a poetic bookend to his ascent.
Unfortunately, Sam left a vacancy that hasn't yet been filled. Whichever walk-on kicker wins the kicking job (probably going to be Joey Julius), it's going to be a big downgrade. Add in underwhelming Aussie punter Daniel Pasquariello, and you've got a unit in desperate need of improvement going forward. Unfortunately, the 2015 special teams units aren't pretty and they seem exceedingly likely to cost the club a game or two along the way. Franklin has already secured a verbal commitment from the top kicker in the Class of 2016 (Rockford, Michigan's Quinn Nordin) as well as a top-five punter (Atlanta-area leg Blake Gillikin). While that bodes well for the future, Nordin and Gillikin won't help the lackluster 2015 units.
Offensive Line
Before you hate me, I firmly believe that there's plenty of hope for this unit. Yes, it was abysmal last year, and yes, the top player is now protecting Jameis Winston's blind side in Tampa instead of Hack's in PA. Still, the quartet from LG to RT (Brendan Mahon, Angelo Mangiro, Brian Gaia, and Andrew Nelson) all comes with starting experience instead of exclusively question marks and concerns as was the case last year. The 44 sacks cannot be repeated - Hack won't survive the year - but this group should be better. If they can somehow comprise even an average Big Ten line, it'll go a long way toward making for a positive season.
Ah, but then there's the left tackle. Maybe Paris Palmer proves to be the JUCO angel Nittany needs him to be. Maybe Chance Sorrell proves that uncommon redshirt freshman capable of stepping in at the line's most important spot. Color me unexcited about either option.
Running Backs
Look, I've got nothing against this group. Akeel Lynch looks like a strong starter and Mark Allen looks ready to go in a part-time role. Yet, there's underwhelming depth here and Lynch looks like a plus starter instead of a star. That's fine, but not great.
Linebackers
Brandon Bell has placed a target on his back by taking on the responsibility of wearing #11, but his tape suggests that he's ready for that role. On the outside, Jason Cabinda and Nyeem Wartman-White are both plenty competent as starters. However, this unit either needs a true breakout from Cabinda or a big push from lower on the depth chart (we're looking at you, Koa Farmer) to move it's way up this list.
Defensive Line
Anthony Zettel is the second best player on this team and the most valuable member of the defense. Austin Johnson is a blossoming collegiate star next to him. This group should be ideal. Unfortunately, the group of Garrett Sickels, Carl Nassib, Curtis Cothran, and Evan Schwan needs to find a way to produce 120 plus snaps and while I have hope for Sickels, I don't see it for the group. Add in uninspiring depth on the interior, and this group only looks really good, not elite.
Wide Receivers
This group could top the list when all is said and done. The top five receivers feature just one upperclassman, redshirt junior Geno Lewis, an explosive yet inconsistent target. Three sophomores and a redshirt freshman join him among the top options. Saeed Blacknall proved capable of using his 6-3, 211-pound frame effectively last year, especially in making a game-changing touchdown catch when PSU gave Ohio State their toughest game of the year. DeAndre Thompkins put his redshirt year to use, and is poised to win a starting gig.
And then there's the big two options: true sophomore Chris Godwin and redshirt sophomore DaeSean Hamilton. Godwin showed flashes last year, and is certainly capable of playing his way into Hack's favor. Hamilton, on the other hand, is a preseason first-team All-Big Ten selection for a reason. The guy has the hands, quickness, and body to pitch-and-catch all day. This is a really strong group that can carry the team.
Secondary
The strength of the defense, this unit also lacks depth behind the starters like the defensive line, but the starters in the secondary are a glorious quartet. Senior Trevor Williams comes with a multitude of experience at cornerback while true sophomore Grant Haley brings oodles of athleticism (if not size) across from him.
The muscle comes at safety. Senior Jordan Lucas has earned and held a starting job for years, and he should competently quarterback the defense. But sophomore Marcus Allen is the star. I don't know if anybody is talking about the NFL prospects of true sophomore defensive backs, but Allen is headed for the NFL. He has the body, playing style, and football acumen to be a serious player at the next level. He's poised for a monster year.
Tight Ends
The depth here is just silly, largely thanks to Bill O'Brien's recruiting efforts and offense. Redshirt sophomore Adam Breneman flashed brilliance as a true freshman before losing last year to a knee injury. Breneman's injury red flags are flying freely, but there's still plenty of skill in there to be a pass-catching force. Senior Kyle Carter has been the go-to guy at the tight end spot for multiple stretches over the past couple of years, showing strong hands and body control. Carter is even showing up on All-Big Ten lists...yet true sophomore Mike Gesicki is listed atop the depth chart and with good reason: 6-6, 250-pound sure-handed speed targets are always attractive. Hack is going to love this group.
Speaking of...
Quarterbacks
The depth is poor with a true freshman (Tommy Stevens) and two redshirt freshmen (Trace McSorley and Billy Fessler) behind Hack. At 6-0, 196 pounds, McSorley brings a running element that Hack lacks, but he would represent a massive drop off.
The 6-4, 228-pound Hackenberg will carry the team on his shoulders in 2015 or he'll crumble behind a porous offensive line. I'm obviously visualizing the former. The arm is perfect, the footwork is strong, the acumen is solid, and with two dozen starts under his belt, Hack is ready for the leap with something like $20M at stake. He has a chance to be the best quarterback in the country this year, and Nittany's fortunes will follow his right arm and his brain.
Schedule
With that look at the players complete, here are my week-by-week picks, something that will prove completely ridiculous as players get hurt and strengths and weaknesses are revealed.
Week 1: @ Temple (Philadelphia)
Temple has given Penn State a tough time in their meetings over the past few years, and they have forced their way up near the top of the MAC standings.
However, Penn State continues come out ahead and the 2015 Nittany defense should have its way with the Owls.
Pick: Penn State 31, Temple 10
Week 2: v. Buffalo
I hate these games. They're not fun, even if you win 50-0. Let's get to Week 3.
Pick: Penn State 38, Buffalo 7
Week 3: v. Rutgers
The season gets at least a little bit more interesting in Week 3 as Rutgers comes to State College for a primetime date. Penn State's primetime visit to Piscataway in 2014 was one of the year's most frustrating games, albeit one with a marvelous payoff late in the fourth quarter. Don't expect similar results this year. Rutgers still hasn't named its quarterback, and Kyle Flood's squad appears destined for the basement of the Big Ten East.
Pick: Penn State 40, Rutgers 10
Week 4: v. San Diego State
San Diego State is certainly a more formidable opponent than Buffalo or some of the other lower-MAC fodder that has appeared on the schedule in recent years, but the Aztecs are nonetheless a tier or two below Big Ten competition. Preseason rankings have them in a similar spot to that of Temple and Rutgers. Sounds about right to me. I expect similar results.
Pick: Penn State 28, San Diego State 7
Week 5: v. Army
From everything I've been told, it's a cool experience to play an academy. Hopefully the Penn State players enjoy themselves before pummeling the opposition.
Pick: Penn State 45, Army 14
Week 6: v. Indiana
Indiana is a wonderful opponent against whom to open Big Ten play in earnest. The Hoosiers should lack both the depth and the star power to put up a true fight, yet they have given Nittany an inexplicably hard time for four straight years, including an embarrassing beatdown of Penn State in 2013.
I think Penn State will finally get some revenge this year, though not in dominating fashion.
Pick: Penn State 27, Indiana 10
Week 7: @ Ohio State
And then BOOM! At the Horseshoe in primetime, almost certainly a nationally televised showdown between undefeated and highly ranked squads. Ohio State's only marginally challenging game to that point is their Labor Day opener at Virginia Tech, and after the Hokies gave the Buckeyes their only blemish in last year's championship season, I expect Ohio State to be out for blood. They'll be 6-0 and rolling along.
That's unfortunate for Penn State. Nittany's best change is to catch Ohio State in the midst of a slate of challenging games, not as their first true focal point of the season. Joey Bosa will present a problem the likes of which hasn't been seen for the offensive line, and that Ohio State offense is a steamroller. As so often happens, this visit to Columbus will induce nightmares.
Pick: Ohio State 48, Penn State 10
Week 8: @ Maryland
After last year's stirring showing against the Buckeyes during the White Out game, Penn State followed up with the clunker of the year, a truly disheartening and depressing 20-19 loss to the Terrapins in their first-ever matchup as Big Ten foes. That loss dropped the 2014 club to 4-4 as their fourth straight loss, putting many of us in a funk.
Expect revenge in a big way this year. Maryland figures to field one of their weaker teams in recent memory and James Franklin appears uniquely poised to play off of the emotional damage inflicted by the Terps last year. I expect a rousing win following the letdown of Ohio State.
Pick: Penn State 30, Maryland 14
Week 9: v. Illinois
Trap game, anyone? Penn State somehow, rather inexplicably, lost in Champaign last season to a dreadful Illini squad in a game where Hackenberg completed just eight passes and threw for only 93 yards. Tim Beckman is on the hot seat and could very well be out of a job by Week 9, but I don't see it going down that way. Illinois should get off to a hot start against their non-conference foes, but thankfully for Penn State, Nittany catches Illinois at the end of their rough stretch, following games against Nebraska, Iowa (away), and Wisconsin. While both teams figure to be a bit beat up, I think Nittany can overpower Illinois this time.
Pick: Penn State 21, Illinois 15
Week 10: @ Northwestern
Ah, the Wildcats. Pat Fitzgerald's team almost always wins games you wouldn't expect them to win, yet oftentimes loses game they should win. Case in point: the 2014 Wildcats. The 2014 season featured loses to Cal, Northern Illinois, and Illinois, all at home. Ouch.
Yet that same club also beat Penn State, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame (on the road). What in the world?
It feels strange to pick a Northwestern game. I have no idea what's going to happen, but I do have very fond memories of sitting in Ryan Field on a chilly early evening in 2009 watching Daryll Clark's fourth quarter explosion turn a tight matchup into an easy win. Time for Hack to do that, too.
Pick: Penn State 31, Northwestern 20
Week 11: BYE
Finally!
Week 12: v. Michigan
Argh. I get a little angry thinking about this game.
Look, Michigan is going to be way better this year than they were last year simply due to Jim Harbaugh's presence. He's that good.
But how good will they be? And will Penn State be able to make it matter?
I just don't know. There's plenty of talent on both rosters and coaches new to town tasked with getting production out of them. I think that Harbaugh will be better at that...but Penn State has the better talent for their system right now.
Pick: Penn State 31, Michigan 30
Week 13: @ Michigan State
All yours, Mark Dantonio. Have fun fighting it out with Ohio State again!
Pick: Michigan State 28, Penn State 14
I fully expect Penn State to get obliterated by Ohio State this year, but both before and after the showdown in Columbus, the schedule shapes up nicely for a run at double-digit wins. I think they'll get there at 10-2. That'd be really fun.
I think Ohio State will go 12-0 because they have Urban Meyer and they're way more talented than everyone else that they'll play. I think Michigan State will go 9-3, dropping contests to Oregon, Ohio State, and one of Nebraska or Michigan (both road games). I think that Michigan will go 8-4, losing to Ohio State, Penn State, and two of Michigan State, Minnesota, BYU, and Utah.
Ohio State will face Nebraska in the Big Ten Championship Game, a game that the Buckeyes will win by 50 causing media members to wonder if Ohio State should move to the SEC.
It's going to be a fun year everyone!
1. I'm not a huge James Franklin fan, though I'm certainly interested to see how he handles the program and the early returns are encouraging enough;
2. I think that the schedule lines up very favorably for the club to get on a roll in advance of late-season slugfests; and
3. I'm in love with Christian Hackenberg.
It's crazy. I'm 100% on board the Hacktrain, and I don't plan to get off for 20 years, following Hack from State College, PA to his inevitable home in Chicago, IL. It's going to be a fun run.
Of course, just talking about Hack misses the fact that there's an entire team of guys out there and the entire team has to win or lose games as a unit. So here are some very quick thoughts about the units on the team followed by a slightly more detailed look at my expectations for the schedule. I've organized these positions from weakest to strongest, meaning that we inevitably start with...
Specialists
Gulp. This group is ugly. After Sam Ficken's disastrous debut as a Freshman (that Virginia game was actually a nightmare and not something that really happened, right?), he turned into one of the Big Ten's best kickers. The fact that Ficken's final career play - an overtime extra point - won his final career game was a poetic bookend to his ascent.
Unfortunately, Sam left a vacancy that hasn't yet been filled. Whichever walk-on kicker wins the kicking job (probably going to be Joey Julius), it's going to be a big downgrade. Add in underwhelming Aussie punter Daniel Pasquariello, and you've got a unit in desperate need of improvement going forward. Unfortunately, the 2015 special teams units aren't pretty and they seem exceedingly likely to cost the club a game or two along the way. Franklin has already secured a verbal commitment from the top kicker in the Class of 2016 (Rockford, Michigan's Quinn Nordin) as well as a top-five punter (Atlanta-area leg Blake Gillikin). While that bodes well for the future, Nordin and Gillikin won't help the lackluster 2015 units.
Offensive Line
Before you hate me, I firmly believe that there's plenty of hope for this unit. Yes, it was abysmal last year, and yes, the top player is now protecting Jameis Winston's blind side in Tampa instead of Hack's in PA. Still, the quartet from LG to RT (Brendan Mahon, Angelo Mangiro, Brian Gaia, and Andrew Nelson) all comes with starting experience instead of exclusively question marks and concerns as was the case last year. The 44 sacks cannot be repeated - Hack won't survive the year - but this group should be better. If they can somehow comprise even an average Big Ten line, it'll go a long way toward making for a positive season.
Ah, but then there's the left tackle. Maybe Paris Palmer proves to be the JUCO angel Nittany needs him to be. Maybe Chance Sorrell proves that uncommon redshirt freshman capable of stepping in at the line's most important spot. Color me unexcited about either option.
Running Backs
Look, I've got nothing against this group. Akeel Lynch looks like a strong starter and Mark Allen looks ready to go in a part-time role. Yet, there's underwhelming depth here and Lynch looks like a plus starter instead of a star. That's fine, but not great.
Linebackers
Brandon Bell has placed a target on his back by taking on the responsibility of wearing #11, but his tape suggests that he's ready for that role. On the outside, Jason Cabinda and Nyeem Wartman-White are both plenty competent as starters. However, this unit either needs a true breakout from Cabinda or a big push from lower on the depth chart (we're looking at you, Koa Farmer) to move it's way up this list.
Defensive Line
Anthony Zettel is the second best player on this team and the most valuable member of the defense. Austin Johnson is a blossoming collegiate star next to him. This group should be ideal. Unfortunately, the group of Garrett Sickels, Carl Nassib, Curtis Cothran, and Evan Schwan needs to find a way to produce 120 plus snaps and while I have hope for Sickels, I don't see it for the group. Add in uninspiring depth on the interior, and this group only looks really good, not elite.
Wide Receivers
This group could top the list when all is said and done. The top five receivers feature just one upperclassman, redshirt junior Geno Lewis, an explosive yet inconsistent target. Three sophomores and a redshirt freshman join him among the top options. Saeed Blacknall proved capable of using his 6-3, 211-pound frame effectively last year, especially in making a game-changing touchdown catch when PSU gave Ohio State their toughest game of the year. DeAndre Thompkins put his redshirt year to use, and is poised to win a starting gig.
And then there's the big two options: true sophomore Chris Godwin and redshirt sophomore DaeSean Hamilton. Godwin showed flashes last year, and is certainly capable of playing his way into Hack's favor. Hamilton, on the other hand, is a preseason first-team All-Big Ten selection for a reason. The guy has the hands, quickness, and body to pitch-and-catch all day. This is a really strong group that can carry the team.
Secondary
The strength of the defense, this unit also lacks depth behind the starters like the defensive line, but the starters in the secondary are a glorious quartet. Senior Trevor Williams comes with a multitude of experience at cornerback while true sophomore Grant Haley brings oodles of athleticism (if not size) across from him.
The muscle comes at safety. Senior Jordan Lucas has earned and held a starting job for years, and he should competently quarterback the defense. But sophomore Marcus Allen is the star. I don't know if anybody is talking about the NFL prospects of true sophomore defensive backs, but Allen is headed for the NFL. He has the body, playing style, and football acumen to be a serious player at the next level. He's poised for a monster year.
Tight Ends
The depth here is just silly, largely thanks to Bill O'Brien's recruiting efforts and offense. Redshirt sophomore Adam Breneman flashed brilliance as a true freshman before losing last year to a knee injury. Breneman's injury red flags are flying freely, but there's still plenty of skill in there to be a pass-catching force. Senior Kyle Carter has been the go-to guy at the tight end spot for multiple stretches over the past couple of years, showing strong hands and body control. Carter is even showing up on All-Big Ten lists...yet true sophomore Mike Gesicki is listed atop the depth chart and with good reason: 6-6, 250-pound sure-handed speed targets are always attractive. Hack is going to love this group.
Speaking of...
Quarterbacks
The depth is poor with a true freshman (Tommy Stevens) and two redshirt freshmen (Trace McSorley and Billy Fessler) behind Hack. At 6-0, 196 pounds, McSorley brings a running element that Hack lacks, but he would represent a massive drop off.
The 6-4, 228-pound Hackenberg will carry the team on his shoulders in 2015 or he'll crumble behind a porous offensive line. I'm obviously visualizing the former. The arm is perfect, the footwork is strong, the acumen is solid, and with two dozen starts under his belt, Hack is ready for the leap with something like $20M at stake. He has a chance to be the best quarterback in the country this year, and Nittany's fortunes will follow his right arm and his brain.
Schedule
With that look at the players complete, here are my week-by-week picks, something that will prove completely ridiculous as players get hurt and strengths and weaknesses are revealed.
Week 1: @ Temple (Philadelphia)
Temple has given Penn State a tough time in their meetings over the past few years, and they have forced their way up near the top of the MAC standings.
However, Penn State continues come out ahead and the 2015 Nittany defense should have its way with the Owls.
Pick: Penn State 31, Temple 10
Week 2: v. Buffalo
I hate these games. They're not fun, even if you win 50-0. Let's get to Week 3.
Pick: Penn State 38, Buffalo 7
Week 3: v. Rutgers
The season gets at least a little bit more interesting in Week 3 as Rutgers comes to State College for a primetime date. Penn State's primetime visit to Piscataway in 2014 was one of the year's most frustrating games, albeit one with a marvelous payoff late in the fourth quarter. Don't expect similar results this year. Rutgers still hasn't named its quarterback, and Kyle Flood's squad appears destined for the basement of the Big Ten East.
Pick: Penn State 40, Rutgers 10
Week 4: v. San Diego State
San Diego State is certainly a more formidable opponent than Buffalo or some of the other lower-MAC fodder that has appeared on the schedule in recent years, but the Aztecs are nonetheless a tier or two below Big Ten competition. Preseason rankings have them in a similar spot to that of Temple and Rutgers. Sounds about right to me. I expect similar results.
Pick: Penn State 28, San Diego State 7
Week 5: v. Army
From everything I've been told, it's a cool experience to play an academy. Hopefully the Penn State players enjoy themselves before pummeling the opposition.
Pick: Penn State 45, Army 14
Week 6: v. Indiana
Indiana is a wonderful opponent against whom to open Big Ten play in earnest. The Hoosiers should lack both the depth and the star power to put up a true fight, yet they have given Nittany an inexplicably hard time for four straight years, including an embarrassing beatdown of Penn State in 2013.
I think Penn State will finally get some revenge this year, though not in dominating fashion.
Pick: Penn State 27, Indiana 10
Week 7: @ Ohio State
And then BOOM! At the Horseshoe in primetime, almost certainly a nationally televised showdown between undefeated and highly ranked squads. Ohio State's only marginally challenging game to that point is their Labor Day opener at Virginia Tech, and after the Hokies gave the Buckeyes their only blemish in last year's championship season, I expect Ohio State to be out for blood. They'll be 6-0 and rolling along.
That's unfortunate for Penn State. Nittany's best change is to catch Ohio State in the midst of a slate of challenging games, not as their first true focal point of the season. Joey Bosa will present a problem the likes of which hasn't been seen for the offensive line, and that Ohio State offense is a steamroller. As so often happens, this visit to Columbus will induce nightmares.
Pick: Ohio State 48, Penn State 10
Week 8: @ Maryland
After last year's stirring showing against the Buckeyes during the White Out game, Penn State followed up with the clunker of the year, a truly disheartening and depressing 20-19 loss to the Terrapins in their first-ever matchup as Big Ten foes. That loss dropped the 2014 club to 4-4 as their fourth straight loss, putting many of us in a funk.
Expect revenge in a big way this year. Maryland figures to field one of their weaker teams in recent memory and James Franklin appears uniquely poised to play off of the emotional damage inflicted by the Terps last year. I expect a rousing win following the letdown of Ohio State.
Pick: Penn State 30, Maryland 14
Week 9: v. Illinois
Trap game, anyone? Penn State somehow, rather inexplicably, lost in Champaign last season to a dreadful Illini squad in a game where Hackenberg completed just eight passes and threw for only 93 yards. Tim Beckman is on the hot seat and could very well be out of a job by Week 9, but I don't see it going down that way. Illinois should get off to a hot start against their non-conference foes, but thankfully for Penn State, Nittany catches Illinois at the end of their rough stretch, following games against Nebraska, Iowa (away), and Wisconsin. While both teams figure to be a bit beat up, I think Nittany can overpower Illinois this time.
Pick: Penn State 21, Illinois 15
Week 10: @ Northwestern
Ah, the Wildcats. Pat Fitzgerald's team almost always wins games you wouldn't expect them to win, yet oftentimes loses game they should win. Case in point: the 2014 Wildcats. The 2014 season featured loses to Cal, Northern Illinois, and Illinois, all at home. Ouch.
Yet that same club also beat Penn State, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame (on the road). What in the world?
It feels strange to pick a Northwestern game. I have no idea what's going to happen, but I do have very fond memories of sitting in Ryan Field on a chilly early evening in 2009 watching Daryll Clark's fourth quarter explosion turn a tight matchup into an easy win. Time for Hack to do that, too.
Pick: Penn State 31, Northwestern 20
Week 11: BYE
Finally!
Week 12: v. Michigan
Argh. I get a little angry thinking about this game.
Look, Michigan is going to be way better this year than they were last year simply due to Jim Harbaugh's presence. He's that good.
But how good will they be? And will Penn State be able to make it matter?
I just don't know. There's plenty of talent on both rosters and coaches new to town tasked with getting production out of them. I think that Harbaugh will be better at that...but Penn State has the better talent for their system right now.
Pick: Penn State 31, Michigan 30
Week 13: @ Michigan State
All yours, Mark Dantonio. Have fun fighting it out with Ohio State again!
Pick: Michigan State 28, Penn State 14
I fully expect Penn State to get obliterated by Ohio State this year, but both before and after the showdown in Columbus, the schedule shapes up nicely for a run at double-digit wins. I think they'll get there at 10-2. That'd be really fun.
I think Ohio State will go 12-0 because they have Urban Meyer and they're way more talented than everyone else that they'll play. I think Michigan State will go 9-3, dropping contests to Oregon, Ohio State, and one of Nebraska or Michigan (both road games). I think that Michigan will go 8-4, losing to Ohio State, Penn State, and two of Michigan State, Minnesota, BYU, and Utah.
Ohio State will face Nebraska in the Big Ten Championship Game, a game that the Buckeyes will win by 50 causing media members to wonder if Ohio State should move to the SEC.
It's going to be a fun year everyone!
Friday, August 14, 2015
2015 Chicago Bears Roster Breakdown and Projection
With the shift from the franchise's traditional 4-3 defense to new Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio's 3-4 base, the Bears have signaled the beginning of a new era under fresh GM Ryan Pace. At this point, the roster has already turned over in a big way. Looking toward the 2015 season, here's who I expect to make it on a position-by-position basis. The parentheses that follow the position group name indicate how many players I expect the Bears to keep at such position.
On the Bubble: None
On the Bubble: Ka'Deem Carey, Senorise Perry
On the Bubble: Josh Bellamy, Cameron Meredith, Marc Mariani, Rashad Lawrence
On the Bubble: Bear Pascoe, Blake Annen
On the Bubble: Michael Ola
On the Bubble: None
On the Bubble: None
On the Bubble: None
On the Bubble: Will Sutton, Brandon Dunn, Cornelius Washington
On the Bubble: Sam Acho, Willie Young, David Bass
Inside Linebackers (5)
Locks: Shea McClellin, Christian Jones, Jon Bostic, Mason Foster
On the Bubble: Matthew Wells, DeDe Lattimore
On the Bubble: Sherrick McManis, Tracy Porter, Terrance Mitchell, Al Louis-Jean
On the Bubble: Demontre Hurst
On the Bubble: None
QB: Cutler, Clausen
RB: Forte, Rodgers, Langford, Carey
TE: Bennett, Rosario, Miller, Pascoe
OT: Bushrod, Mills, Leno
OG: Slauson, Long, Ducasse
C: Montgomery, Grasu
WR: Jeffery, Royal, White, Wilson, Bellamy
DE: Ferguson, Jenkins, Sutton, Dunn, Washington
NT: Ratliff, Goldman
OLB: McPhee, Allen, Houston, Acho, Young
ILB: Jones, McClellin, Foster, Bostic, Wells
CB: Fuller, Jennings, Ball, Porter, McManis
S: Vereen, Rolle, Mundy, Amos, Hurst
SP: Gould, O'Donnell, Gafford
That roster contains 23 players on offense, 27 on defense, and 3 specialists. Should a compelling wide receiver hit the market in the coming weeks, I suspect that the Bears would gobble him up, punting on one of Dunn, Washington, Young, Wells, or Hurst. Until then, the above roster figures to be the 53-man makeup.
Quarterbacks (2)
Locks: Jay Cutler, Jimmy ClausenOn the Bubble: None
Analysis: The Bears are going to carry Cutler and Clausen. No intrigue here.
Running Backs (4)
Locks: Matt Forte, Jacquizz Rodgers, Jeremy LangfordOn the Bubble: Ka'Deem Carey, Senorise Perry
Analysis: Forte, Rodgers, and Langford will suit up on Opening Day. The fourth spot is a whole lot trickier. Despite being drafted in the fourth round in 2014, Carey finds himself squarely on the bubble already. His uninspiring rookie season has been followed by Langford passing Carey on the depth chart in camp. It's possible that Carey's impressive showing in the preseason opener will sway the coaches; on the other hand, Perry comes with experience and is a plus on special teams. In the end, I suspect that the club will attempt to trade Carey before resigning itself to keep the sophomore in lieu of paying both his cap dead money charge (approximately $333K) and Perry's salary. Regardless, this is probably the battle to watch in camp.
Wide Receivers (5)
Locks: Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal, Kevin White, Marquess WilsonOn the Bubble: Josh Bellamy, Cameron Meredith, Marc Mariani, Rashad Lawrence
Analysis: This is obviously another big camp battle, though the reality remains that the winner of the competition for the fifth receiver job will likely be the guy who contributes most on special teams, giving Mariani a leg up in the competition. I'd be surprised to see a sixth receiver make the club, especially with the number of depth options on defense.
Tight Ends (3)
Locks: Martellus Bennett, Dante Rosario, Zach MillerOn the Bubble: Bear Pascoe, Blake Annen
Analysis: The Bears traditionally carry four tight ends, and with no traditional fullback on the roster, they could carry a fourth tight end this year despite the lack of a compelling option. Furthermore, Miller needs to come with an asterisk as he has lost multiple seasons to injury in his career.
Offensive Tackles (3)
Locks: Jermon Bushrod, Jordan Mills, Charles Leno, Jr.On the Bubble: Michael Ola
Analysis: Mills and Leno may very well be headed for a battle for the right tackle job with Bushrod locked in on the blind side. Ola is something of a long shot to make the club. Sixth-round pick Tayo Fabuluje seems destined for the Practice Squad.
Guards (3)
Locks: Matt Slauson, Kyle Long, Vladimir DucasseOn the Bubble: None
Analysis: Much like last season, Slauson and Long will man the starting positions. There are a few names in consideration for the reserve job, but Ducasse comes with experience and starts under his belt without a truly compelling prospect to push him. He'll get the job.
Centers (2)
Locks: Will Montgomery, Hroniss GrasuOn the Bubble: None
Analysis: Speaking of lacking intrigue. Montgomery is slated to start on a one-year deal whereas Grasu was just drafted with a third-round pick. They'll both make it.
Nose Tackles (2)
Locks: Jeremiah Ratliff, Eddie GoldmanOn the Bubble: None
Analysis: Just like it was at center, there's nothing interesting here. Ratliff will start, and Goldman was drafted in the second round to be the long-term answer in the interior. Terry Williams isn't in serious consideration for a spot.
Defensive Ends (5)
Locks: Ego Ferguson, Jarvis JenkinsOn the Bubble: Will Sutton, Brandon Dunn, Cornelius Washington
Analysis: This is another compelling position group. Washington proved too small as a 260-pound 4-3 defensive end, yet he put on 25 pounds in an effort to stick as an end in the 3-4. If he maintained his trademark quickness in spite of the added weight, he should make it. Sutton comes from the opposite position, a 4-3 defensive tackle kicking outside in the new alignment. Ditto Dunn. In the end, with only two nose tackles, I think the Bears will end up keeping all five defensive ends. If one guy doesn't make it, I suspect that Dunn will be left holding the short straw.
Outside Linebackers (5)
Locks: Pernell McPhee, Jared Allen, Lamarr HoustonOn the Bubble: Sam Acho, Willie Young, David Bass
Analysis: The Bears desperately needed to add an impact piece at the new 3-4 outside linebacker spot, and McPhee fit the bill perfectly. Though there's always risk taking a situational player and giving him a full-time job, McPhee's contract was largely risk-free (if cut, his cap hit for 2016 would be just $2M) and his upside is immense. Allen sticks around as a guy with a hefty guaranteed salary. This will be his final year with the Bears.
Houston flopped in his debut season with the Bears and embarrassingly tore his ACL celebrating his only sack, a garbage-time takedown against New England. Acho comes with some pass rushing success, Young is coming off of a ten-sack season, and Bass has shown some aptitude for pass rushing over the last two years. In the end, Acho, Young, and Bass may very well be competing for two spots. Young's marvelous 2014 campaign - his torn Achilles notwithstanding - should give him the upper hand while Acho's experience in the 3-4 helps his cause. Bass' speed could keep him on the roster, however, so this is the toughest spot for me to pick. In the end, I'll say that Acho and Young stick around while noting that an offer of a sixth-round pick from an opposing general manager would probably get Young, especially if such a deal moved him back into a 4-3 scheme.
Houston flopped in his debut season with the Bears and embarrassingly tore his ACL celebrating his only sack, a garbage-time takedown against New England. Acho comes with some pass rushing success, Young is coming off of a ten-sack season, and Bass has shown some aptitude for pass rushing over the last two years. In the end, Acho, Young, and Bass may very well be competing for two spots. Young's marvelous 2014 campaign - his torn Achilles notwithstanding - should give him the upper hand while Acho's experience in the 3-4 helps his cause. Bass' speed could keep him on the roster, however, so this is the toughest spot for me to pick. In the end, I'll say that Acho and Young stick around while noting that an offer of a sixth-round pick from an opposing general manager would probably get Young, especially if such a deal moved him back into a 4-3 scheme.
Inside Linebackers (5)
Locks: Shea McClellin, Christian Jones, Jon Bostic, Mason Foster
On the Bubble: Matthew Wells, DeDe Lattimore
Analysis: The top four inside 'backers are all effectively assured of their jobs. Jones is penciled in as the starter next to McClellin whereas Bostic comes with huge upside and Foster comes with years of solid, if uninspiring, tape. Wells came over from New England in a rare preseason trade for guard Ryan Groy; it would be strange if the Bears acquired the 2015 sixth-round pick and then cut him a few weeks later, though perhaps he'll head to the Practice Squad. Lattimore proved competent in limited use in 2014, but he's not moving the needle much.
Cornerbacks (5)
Locks: Kyle Fuller, Tim Jennings, Alan BallOn the Bubble: Sherrick McManis, Tracy Porter, Terrance Mitchell, Al Louis-Jean
Analysis: The top four will all stick around, and I had McManis on that top line for a bit before dropping him down. He should still make it. Ditto Porter. Mitchell and Louis-Jean are longshots. Despite seven names for five spots, there's little intrigue here.
Safeties (4)
Locks: Ryan Mundy, Antrel Rolle, Brock Vereen, Adrian AmosOn the Bubble: Demontre Hurst
Analysis: I have been consistently impressed by Hurst's production in games, both live and on television. Unfortunately for him, this roster is not well-shaped to provide him with a window to playing time. I suspect that Ryan Pace will keep him on speed dial in the event of an injury in the secondary.
Specialists (2)
Locks: Robbie Gould, Pat O'Donnell, Thomas GaffordOn the Bubble: None
Analysis: Three guys with jobs as secure as possible.
Cap Situation
It's mostly worthless to look at the club's roster without at least some idea of the team's salary cap situation. The Bears currently stand about $8.5M under the cap for 2015, placing them very near the median figure among NFL clubs. A couple of major numbers will come off of the books in 2016 (Jared Allen, Brandon Marshall) though nearly all of those savings figure to be reinvested into a new, long-term deal for Alshon Jeffery. Regardless, the cap sheet is relatively healthy.
Final Projection
Given everything listed above, here is my projection for the Opening Day 2015 roster:QB: Cutler, Clausen
RB: Forte, Rodgers, Langford, Carey
TE: Bennett, Rosario, Miller, Pascoe
OT: Bushrod, Mills, Leno
OG: Slauson, Long, Ducasse
C: Montgomery, Grasu
WR: Jeffery, Royal, White, Wilson, Bellamy
DE: Ferguson, Jenkins, Sutton, Dunn, Washington
NT: Ratliff, Goldman
OLB: McPhee, Allen, Houston, Acho, Young
ILB: Jones, McClellin, Foster, Bostic, Wells
CB: Fuller, Jennings, Ball, Porter, McManis
S: Vereen, Rolle, Mundy, Amos, Hurst
SP: Gould, O'Donnell, Gafford
That roster contains 23 players on offense, 27 on defense, and 3 specialists. Should a compelling wide receiver hit the market in the coming weeks, I suspect that the Bears would gobble him up, punting on one of Dunn, Washington, Young, Wells, or Hurst. Until then, the above roster figures to be the 53-man makeup.
2015 NFL Predictions
We're in the midst of the first week of the NFL preseason, but for me, it's still all about baseball. The Cubs are playing their best baseball in decades, with September relevance assured and a playoff odds percentage that is creeping up toward 90%.
Nevertheless, I love the Chicago Bears and I want nothing but greatness for them. With last night's preseason opener in the books, it's time to throw out my picks for this season. I'm sure that there will be a slew of injuries throughout the rest of the preseason that seriously impact these records, but the beauty of prognostication is that even the best mathematical systems miss an awful lot.
So using nothing but my gut and my brain, here goes!
NFC NORTH
Green Bay (12-4): Aaron Rodgers + Mike McCarthy + Ted Thompson = see you in January.
Minnesota (10-6): Teddy's offense and Zimmer's defense will win lots of games with this deep roster.
Detroit (8-8): With Ndamukong Suh and Dominic Raiola gone, the Lions need to find a new identity. Unfortunately for them, an 0-4 start (@ SD, @ MIN, v. DEN, @ SEA) will be too much to overcome.
Chicago (4-12): They'll be exciting on offense and brutal on defense; this record is mostly a reflection of their extremely strong division.
NFC SOUTH
Carolina (9-7): Cam Newton, gigantic slow receivers, and a defense. That's enough here.
Atlanta (7-9): This team keeps living in mediocrity, even with Julio Jones and Roddy White wreaking havoc.
New Orleans (5-11): The Brees era is heading for a screaming thud. Their cap management finally catches up to them this year.
Tampa Bay (5-11): Watch out for these guys in December and 2016 onward. A Lovie Smith defense + Jameis Winston's offense can be special. It'll just take a bit of time.
NFC WEST
Seattle (12-4): Because duh.
Arizona (10-6): Way too much defensive ability here now to reach January.
St. Louis (8-8): Much like Detroit, the schedule makes it too tough right away. Talent is here.
San Francisco (3-13): Oh dear.
NFC EAST
Philadelphia (11-5): Chip makes his move.
Dallas (7-9): When the hype machine calms down, another flawed 'boys team will emerge.
New York (6-10): There's already no offensive line. It's only getting worse on that side of the ball.
Washington (2-14): It'll get better at some point, D.C. fans.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore (9-7): Harbaugh, Flacco, and Co. eek out just enough.
Cincinnati (9-7): They're just so consistently decent.
Pittsburgh (7-9): They're basically the same as Baltimore and Cincinnati, but somebody gets the short stick.
Cleveland (4-12): Still no direction and lots of problems.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis (13-3): A 6-0 division record is nearly locked in.
Houston (9-7): I still love Bill O'Brien, and adding Clowney makes that defense formidable.
Jacksonville (6-10): Rather quietly, GM David Caldwell has given QB Blake Bortles a bevy of weapons. Allen Robinson is about to explode onto the scene.
Tennessee (2-14): They are really, really awful.
AFC WEST
Denver (10-6): These Broncos are flawed, but so is the competition.
San Diego (10-6): Rivers in a contract year: get ready for lots and lots of yards.
Kansas City (7-9): Andy Reid and the defense keep it respectable.
Oakland (4-12): Getting better, I suppose, but just barely.
AFC EAST
New England (12-4): Just because. Belichick and angry Brady? It's too obvious.
Miami (9-7): They've got their problems, but Tannehill takes another step with an improved defense.
Buffalo (7-9): Loads of weapons, no quarterback.
New York (4-12): Incredible collection of defensive talent, absolutely no quarterback play.
PLAYOFF TREE
Minnesota over Carolina
Philadelphia over Arizona
Denver over Miami
Baltimore over San Diego
Green Bay over Minnesota
Seattle over Philadelphia
New England over Denver
Indianapolis over Baltimore
Green Bay over Seattle
Indianapolis over New England
Green Bay over Indianapolis
2016 DRAFT ORDER
1. Tennessee
2. Washington
3. San Francisco
4. Oakland
5. Cleveland
6. Chicago
7. New York Jets
8. Tampa Bay
9. New Orleans
10. Jacksonville
11. New York Giants
12. Atlanta
13. Dallas
14. Pittsburgh
15. Buffalo
16. Kansas City
17. St. Louis
18. Detroit
19. Houston
20. Cincinnati
21. Carolina
22. Miami
23. San Diego
24. Arizona
25. Baltimore
26. Denver
27. Minnesota
28. Philadelphia
29. Seattle
30. Indianapolis
31. Green Bay
(*New England is currently slated to surrender their first-round pick as punishment for the Deflategate scandal.)
With those picks made, here are a handful of additional thoughts that I have about this season:
1. The Vikings are going to announce their arrival as a contender, and they'll stay there for the rest of this decade.
2. The NFC North and NFC West will be the class of the NFL this year; even the fourth-place finishers (Chicago and San Francisco, respectively) will play nearly average football.
3. Aaron Rodgers will run away with the MVP award.
4. No team in the AFC North holds a division lead of greater than one game all year; the Ravens knock off the Steelers in Week 16 prior to a Week 17 upset in Cincinnati that punches their playoff ticket.
5. Andrew Luck will make the leap from "elite young QB" to "elite QB."
6. The 2016 pre-draft offseason will be one for the ages as the Tennessee Titans will hold arguably the most highly-sought-after top pick in history with Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg the clear top choice and the next six clubs - Washington, San Francisco, Oakland, Cleveland, Chicago, and the New York Jets - all desperately in need of a franchise signal-caller.
Nevertheless, I love the Chicago Bears and I want nothing but greatness for them. With last night's preseason opener in the books, it's time to throw out my picks for this season. I'm sure that there will be a slew of injuries throughout the rest of the preseason that seriously impact these records, but the beauty of prognostication is that even the best mathematical systems miss an awful lot.
So using nothing but my gut and my brain, here goes!
NFC NORTH
Green Bay (12-4): Aaron Rodgers + Mike McCarthy + Ted Thompson = see you in January.
Minnesota (10-6): Teddy's offense and Zimmer's defense will win lots of games with this deep roster.
Detroit (8-8): With Ndamukong Suh and Dominic Raiola gone, the Lions need to find a new identity. Unfortunately for them, an 0-4 start (@ SD, @ MIN, v. DEN, @ SEA) will be too much to overcome.
Chicago (4-12): They'll be exciting on offense and brutal on defense; this record is mostly a reflection of their extremely strong division.
NFC SOUTH
Carolina (9-7): Cam Newton, gigantic slow receivers, and a defense. That's enough here.
Atlanta (7-9): This team keeps living in mediocrity, even with Julio Jones and Roddy White wreaking havoc.
New Orleans (5-11): The Brees era is heading for a screaming thud. Their cap management finally catches up to them this year.
Tampa Bay (5-11): Watch out for these guys in December and 2016 onward. A Lovie Smith defense + Jameis Winston's offense can be special. It'll just take a bit of time.
NFC WEST
Seattle (12-4): Because duh.
Arizona (10-6): Way too much defensive ability here now to reach January.
St. Louis (8-8): Much like Detroit, the schedule makes it too tough right away. Talent is here.
San Francisco (3-13): Oh dear.
NFC EAST
Philadelphia (11-5): Chip makes his move.
Dallas (7-9): When the hype machine calms down, another flawed 'boys team will emerge.
New York (6-10): There's already no offensive line. It's only getting worse on that side of the ball.
Washington (2-14): It'll get better at some point, D.C. fans.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore (9-7): Harbaugh, Flacco, and Co. eek out just enough.
Cincinnati (9-7): They're just so consistently decent.
Pittsburgh (7-9): They're basically the same as Baltimore and Cincinnati, but somebody gets the short stick.
Cleveland (4-12): Still no direction and lots of problems.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis (13-3): A 6-0 division record is nearly locked in.
Houston (9-7): I still love Bill O'Brien, and adding Clowney makes that defense formidable.
Jacksonville (6-10): Rather quietly, GM David Caldwell has given QB Blake Bortles a bevy of weapons. Allen Robinson is about to explode onto the scene.
Tennessee (2-14): They are really, really awful.
AFC WEST
Denver (10-6): These Broncos are flawed, but so is the competition.
San Diego (10-6): Rivers in a contract year: get ready for lots and lots of yards.
Kansas City (7-9): Andy Reid and the defense keep it respectable.
Oakland (4-12): Getting better, I suppose, but just barely.
AFC EAST
New England (12-4): Just because. Belichick and angry Brady? It's too obvious.
Miami (9-7): They've got their problems, but Tannehill takes another step with an improved defense.
Buffalo (7-9): Loads of weapons, no quarterback.
New York (4-12): Incredible collection of defensive talent, absolutely no quarterback play.
PLAYOFF TREE
Minnesota over Carolina
Philadelphia over Arizona
Denver over Miami
Baltimore over San Diego
Green Bay over Minnesota
Seattle over Philadelphia
New England over Denver
Indianapolis over Baltimore
Green Bay over Seattle
Indianapolis over New England
Green Bay over Indianapolis
2016 DRAFT ORDER
1. Tennessee
2. Washington
3. San Francisco
4. Oakland
5. Cleveland
6. Chicago
7. New York Jets
8. Tampa Bay
9. New Orleans
10. Jacksonville
11. New York Giants
12. Atlanta
13. Dallas
14. Pittsburgh
15. Buffalo
16. Kansas City
17. St. Louis
18. Detroit
19. Houston
20. Cincinnati
21. Carolina
22. Miami
23. San Diego
24. Arizona
25. Baltimore
26. Denver
27. Minnesota
28. Philadelphia
29. Seattle
30. Indianapolis
31. Green Bay
(*New England is currently slated to surrender their first-round pick as punishment for the Deflategate scandal.)
With those picks made, here are a handful of additional thoughts that I have about this season:
1. The Vikings are going to announce their arrival as a contender, and they'll stay there for the rest of this decade.
2. The NFC North and NFC West will be the class of the NFL this year; even the fourth-place finishers (Chicago and San Francisco, respectively) will play nearly average football.
3. Aaron Rodgers will run away with the MVP award.
4. No team in the AFC North holds a division lead of greater than one game all year; the Ravens knock off the Steelers in Week 16 prior to a Week 17 upset in Cincinnati that punches their playoff ticket.
5. Andrew Luck will make the leap from "elite young QB" to "elite QB."
6. The 2016 pre-draft offseason will be one for the ages as the Tennessee Titans will hold arguably the most highly-sought-after top pick in history with Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg the clear top choice and the next six clubs - Washington, San Francisco, Oakland, Cleveland, Chicago, and the New York Jets - all desperately in need of a franchise signal-caller.
Friday, June 19, 2015
I'm Done with Starlin Castro
No examination of his statistics. No advanced scouting analysis. No calm plea for sanity and reason.
Castro needs to lose his job, whether that means he gets plopped on the bench or the Cubs try to force him to the minors through waivers. He needs to be out of the lineup and, preferably, off the team. These games matter and he's a disaster on a team full of bright spots.
I'm done with him.
Thursday, June 18, 2015
A Midseason Look at the Chicago Cubs Top 50 Prospects
In the
interest of full disclosure, I began drafting this piece immediately after the
draft concluded, but I didn't want to post it until we actually knew which 2015
draftees signed with the club, hence the gap between drafting and posting.
Nevertheless, I didn't want to wait until mid-July, so I've made some
assumptions regarding the draftees and posted anyway.
As I have
every time I've posted a prospect ranking, I've altered the format just a bit
to provide more relevant information. For example, I've copied the
"risk" rating from national publications, with 1
representing Bryce Harper and 5 representing Brady Aiken. Expect a
fully detailed listing in October or November. Until then, let this whet your
appetite.
As an
extremely important note before beginning, neither Arismendy Alcantara nor
Javier Baez is eligible for this list. Were they eligible, they'd both push for
the top spot.
1. C/LF
Kyle Schwarber
Current
Level:
MLB Chicago (heading to Triple-A Iowa)
MLB ETA: April 2016
Grade: 65
Risk: 3
Tools: 60 hit, 70
power, 75 discipline, 40 glove, 50 arm, 40 run, 60 durability
Analysis: The risk
on Schwarber's offensive game is a 1: he's going to hit for power and he's
going to draw so many walks with so relatively few strikeouts that the on-base
skills will be constant. But the defensive risk is a 5 as he may be a terrible
catcher and he may not have the skillset to play an effective left field. If
he's defensively homeless, the overall package takes a massive hit. I think he
ends up playing a poor - but passable - left field and hits in the middle of
the order as part of the 21st century's murderer's row with Rizzo, Bryant, and
Soler.
2. SP
Duane Underwood
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: June 2017
Grade: 60
Risk: 4
Tools: 65 FB, 55
CB, 50 CH, 55 command, 60 durability
Analysis: Underwood
has cemented himself as the top pitching prospect in the organization through a
combination of stuff and performance. Rather strangely, Underwood has really
struggled to rack up strikeouts, yet his walk rate has dropped for the fourth
straight year and High-A hitters absolutely cannot square up the 20-year-old.
As each month passes, Underwood looks more and more like the legitimate
starting option that his big arm portends.
3. RF
Eloy Jimenez
Current
Level:
Extended Spring Training (off to Short-Season Eugene soon)
MLB ETA: August
2018
Grade: 60
Risk: 4
Tools: 65 hit, 60
power, 50 discipline, 50 glove, 60 arm, 50 run, 50 durability
Analysis: Eloy had
been exclusively about projection until he got stateside this year and
posted a huge .323/.363/.548 unofficial batting line in Extended Spring
Training. In addition to showing notable power and better-than-expected speed,
Jimenez struck out just 16.7% of his plate appearances, suggesting that his
approach may be even more advanced than was initially thought. With a smooth
swing and plenty of strength, Jimenez could be the rare hit-first right fielder
who produces plenty of extra-base power simply by virtue of hitting a boatload
of line drives instead of generating loft on the ball.
4. SP
Dylan Cease
Current
Level:
Extended Spring Training (off to Short-Season Eugene soon)
MLB ETA: June 2019
Grade: 60
Risk: 5
Tools: 70
FB, 60 CB, 30 CH, 40 command, 30 durability
Analysis: Cease is
the poster child for projection. He underwent Tommy John surgery almost
immediately after signing with the Cubs last summer, yet he returned throwing
in the upper 90s a few weeks ago. Cease is going to have command issues, both
by virtue of his raw but unharnessed arm and due to his recovery from surgery,
but the stuff is there to push for a job near the top of a Major League
rotation. He's the kind of massive risk that I like to take. Hopefully he'll
throw for a couple of months at Eugene to get his delivery heading in the right
post-operation direction.
5. SP
Carson Sands
Current
Level:
Extended Spring Training (off to Short-Season Eugene soon)
MLB ETA: April 2018
Grade: 60
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
FB, 40 CB, 60 CH, 50 command, 50 durability
Analysis: Sands has
the one thing I look for in a lefty above all else: the diving, tumbling
changeup that gives right-handed hitters fits. He struggled with walks in
Extended Spring Training, issuing 11 free passes over 14 innings, but he had
plenty of strikeouts and limited the hits against him, both encouraging
realities for the southpaw. Sands needs repetitions just like any other recent
draftee, but he has the look of a pitcher that could move more quickly than the
standard prep draftee given the changeup's advanced status. I'm excited to see
what Sands can do over the next year.
6. SS
Gleyber Torres
Current
Level:
Low-A South Bend
MLB ETA: May 2018
Grade: 60
Risk: 3
Tools: 65 hit, 45
power, 70 discipline, 60 glove, 55 arm, 55 run, 70 durability
Analysis: Slapping a
"3" risk grade on an 18-year-old in Low-A sounds absurd, but Torres
has earned such a marker. The shortstop with a clean, quick stroke has proved
stunningly adept at managing the strike zone against full-season competition.
Although he has struck out nearly 25% of the time, his 10%+ walk rate is an
astounding accomplishment, especially when considering that Torres has hit for
almost no power thus far. His slight stature may cause some issues down the
road, yet as his power emerges, he should be able to maintain high on-base
percentages thanks to an excellent hit tool that his him sitting comfortably
north of .300 on the year. It remains to be seen if he'll need to shift to the
other side of second base, but legitimate middle infield gloves with high-.300
on-base skills have been in high demand forever and for good reason.
7. SP
Trevor Clifton
Current
Level:
Low-A South Bend
MLB ETA: June 2018
Grade: 60
Risk: 5
Tools: 60
FB, 55 CB, 40 CH, 50 command, 60 durability
Analysis: Almost
impossibly, Clifton was the only prep pitcher drafted band signed y Jason
McLeod in the 2013 draft, the first draft under the current regime. Clifton's
mechanics were truly painful to watch coming out of high school, suggesting
that a future injury was a foregone conclusion. Thankfully, the minor league
staff has smoothed out his delivery in a major way, resulting in a clean
delivery from both the windup and the stretch. His fastball hasn't skipped a
beat, running up there in the 90s as it did before. The real growth - beyond
the mechanical improvement - has come in his 11-5 curveball that he throws with
regularity and confidence. I haven't seen enough of his changeup to grade it
confidently, but two above-average offerings and clean mechanics is a tremendous
jumping-off point for the 6'4" 20-year-old. I really like what I see.
Clifton sure looks like $375,000 well spent, even if there's plenty of
development between him and big-time prospect status.
8. RP
C.J. Edwards
Current
Level:
Triple-A Iowa
MLB ETA: June 2015
Grade: 60
Risk: 1
Tools: 70
FB, 55 CB, 60 CH, 60 command, 30 durability
Analysis: It may
seem strange to see a "1" risk grade in cahoots with a "30"
durability rating, but that's Edwards for you. The stuff is undeniably superb
with three above-average pitches including two true plus offerings and plenty
of command thereof. Unfortunately, Edwards doesn't ever figure to eclipse about
170 pounds, something that will keep him in the bullpen short- and long-term,
regardless of what the front office might suggest. No matter: Edwards can close
and he'll be a big addition to the roster this summer after he gets a few more
weeks at Triple-A under his belt.
9. SP
Jake Stinnett
Current
Level:
Low-A South Bend
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 55
Risk: 5
Tools: 60
FB, 50 CB, 30 CH, 30 command, 70 durability
Analysis: Stinnett
is already 23, but he may as well be 19 in terms of his development. That's not
a knock on him; it's a reality of his not having turned to pitching full-time
until late in college. Stinnett has the benefit of having a low-mileage arm,
yet he looks incredibly raw, like a hurler with a desperate need to throw a few
hundred more innings before having the chance to really develop a good feel for
his stuff. But having seen him throw a few games on video, I like this risk,
too. Stinnett is a strong athlete who is going through growing pains.
10.
CF Donnie Dewees
Current
Level:
Draftee
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 50
Risk: 3
Tools: 55 hit, 45
power, 45 discipline, 55 glove, 25 arm, 65 run, 70 durability
Analysis: Dewees is
something of a strange pick, a player discussed as a mid-first rounder with
absolutely incredible production in college who nonetheless has some holes in
his game. Let's start with the bad: Dewees has a Juan Pierre-esque arm, his
swing doesn't appear to generate the bat speed that suggests he'll hit for
power, and his competition in the Atlantic-Sun Conference was likely subpar.
Now for the good: Dewees absolutely destroyed opposing pitchers, hit for
excellent power with a compact stroke, should hit for plenty of
average, and he runs very well. I could see Dewees flaming out in two
years as the level of competition overwhelms him while I could simultaneously
see him manning center field at Wrigley in about two year's time if the bat
plays up. He's a great pick at #47 overall: lots of upside and enough present
production to justify the pick.
11. SP
Erling Moreno
Current
Level:
Extended Spring Training (off to Short-Season Eugene soon)
MLB ETA: July 2019
Grade: 55
Risk: 5
Tools: 60 FB, 35
CB, 60 CH, 60 command, 40 durability
Analysis: Moreno is
still just 18 and he enjoyed a strong, albeit brief, Extended Spring Training
Run this year. He should get plenty of additional innings to work his way back
into form at Eugene. I say that because 2014 Tommy John surgery certainly
derailed his development. Fortunately for the Cubs, 6'7" righties with
advanced changeups are extremely, so even having gone under the knife, Moreno
is a good prospect. He needs lots of time but plenty of pieces are in place.
12.
LF Billy McKinney
Current Level: Double-A Tennessee
Current Level: Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: July 2016
Grade: 50
Risk: 2
Tools: 70
hit, 40 power, 60 discipline, 45 glove, 45 arm, 45 run, 60
durability
Analysis: McKinney
is a polarizing prospect. Some evaluators see a 20-year-old posting a decent
line at Double-A, having completely obliterated High-A, with a great hit tool,
incredibly contact ability, and strong discipline with enough athleticism to
play a number of outfield positions. Others see a left fielder with little
power and a subpar defensive profile. Scouts are uniform in their belief that
McKinney lacks any kind of useful speed. I fall in the second camp with
McKinney, seeing a really nice swing with a good hit tool, but poor power and
an underwhelming glove. That profile doesn't play in left, though it might play
as a second-division starter in center if McKinney can maintain his career walk
rate. Unfortunately for McKinney, pitchers are going to challenge him unless he
can show the aptitude to hit for power, something that could curtail his on
base rates. He's an interesting prospect thanks to the bat, but his concerns
are very concerning.
13. SP
Jen-Ho Tseng
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: June 2017
Grade: 50
Risk: 3
Tools: 55
FB, 55 CB, 55 CH, 60 command, 50 durability
Analysis: I was the
high man on Tseng last fall. Unfortunately, the command-dependent righty has
pitched only to decent results at Myrtle Beach thus far. Tseng lacks strikeout
stuff and although he maintains a strong walk rate in the low 2s, he needs to
have his arsenal take a jump or two to project as anything more than a back-end
arm. I still love the command profile and think that Tseng will be a useful
contributor at the top level. It's just tougher to see an impact arm given his
dearth of strikeouts.
14. RP
Pierce Johnson
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: May
2016
Grade: 50
Risk: 2
Tools: 60
FB, 70 CB, 40 CH, 45 command, 40 durability
Analysis: Another
year, another injury for Johnson as a lat strain has cost the righty the first
two months of the season. Despite my consistent concerns about his changeup to
date, I was willing to stick with Johnson as a starter through the winter, but
now, with additional developmental time lost, I think he has to be moved to the
bullpen. His stuff should play extremely well there as his curveball is a
dominant offering, good enough to retire hitters of both handedness, and his
fastball is already a plus offering. His changeup remains subpar and he likely
won't feature it much at all out of the bullpen.
15. SP
Bryan Hudson
Current
Level:
Draftee
MLB ETA: 2020
Grade: 55
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
FB, 65 CB, 40 CH, 50 command, 45 durability
Analysis: I very
much like the Hudson pick. He's the right type of talent to add to the system
in the third round of this June's draft: a tall, lanky prep lefty with a
dynamite curveball, enough fastball, and the need to add 20-30 pounds of leg
strength to his frame. The Cubs will give him the years needed to do so, and I
for one will very much enjoy the journey. I said on draft night that he reminds
me of Sean Marshall, delivery and all. That's a fine piece for the system.
16. 2B/LF
Ian Happ
Current
Level:
Draftee
MLB ETA: June 2017
Grade: 50
Risk: 2
Tools: 55
hit, 50 power, 55 discipline, 40 glove, 50 arm, 50 run, 60
durability
Analysis: As I noted
in my draft recap, Happ was decidedly on my "Do Not Draft" list at #9
for one simple reason: he's defensively homeless. Happ doesn't look like he'll
have the chops to handle an infield job to me, something that torpedoes his
value. There's no denying that his bat was extremely impressive at Cincinnati,
and I really like his swing from the left side. I don't think he'll run too
terribly well, but he should move just fine. His offensive game would play
really well at second base...but if his glove pushes him to an outfield corner,
he'll have a helluva time being even an average regular at his peak. I listed
eight names I would have preferred from the Cubs at #9, but Happ is the guy, so
I'll slot him here.
17. 1B
Dan Vogelbach
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: July 2016
Grade: 50
Risk: 2
Tools: 60
hit, 60 power, 70 discipline, 30 glove, 40 arm, 20
run, 60 durability
Analysis: Somewhat
remarkably, Vogelbach has kept himself on the field every day throughout his
career, despite arriving with a body that carried a ton of excess fat.
Vogelbach has played four full seasons now and the data only somewhat matches
the scouting report. Vogelbach has hit for a much better average than might
have been expected as his all-fields approach has worked wondrously well.
However, his game power just hasn't materialized, almost surely in some part
because minor league pitchers refuse to throw him strikes. Nevertheless,
Vogelbach will be a negative defensively and on the basepaths regardless of how
well the bat develops, so he really needs his power to show up to have anything
other than a role 50 future. He's certainly not bad; it's just that he's not a
needle-mover when considering the full package.
18. 3B
Christian Villanueva
Current
Level:
Triple-A Iowa
MLB ETA: July 2015
Grade: 45
Risk: 2
Tools: 45
hit, 45 power, 50 discipline, 60 glove, 55 arm, 40 run, 60
durability
Analysis: Kudos to Villanueva for working his way back onto the
prospect map. A disastrous 2014 season at the plate had Villanueva fading into
obscurity, but a nice recovery both in terms of his on-base ability and
particularly with some rediscovered game power in 2015 has him looking like a
second-division third baseman thanks to his plus glove and solid arm.
Villanueva will never be a star, but he has the defensive chops to be a
glove-first regular for a short time and a solid bench option in the longer
term, particularly as his game power proves increasingly usable.
19. RP
Armando Rivero
Current
Level:
Triple-A Iowa
MLB ETA: July 2015
Grade: 55
Risk: 3
Tools: 70
FB, 40 CB, 40 CH, 45 command, 50 durability
Analysis: Rivero
appeared ready to jump into a late-inning role in Chicago this year, but a
terrible start to the season has severely lowered his ceiling. Rivero simply
cannot stop walking opposing hitters and he has found strikeouts much tougher
to come by. That combination has proved unsurprisingly devastating. Although
Rivero has rebounded somewhat from a truly dreadful start, he is still
struggling mightily with walks, so he'll likely need more seasoning than
expected in order to find the same.
20.
C Victor Caratini
Current Level: High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: April 2018
Grade: 50
Risk: 5
Tools: 55
hit, 45 power, 60 discipline, 50 glove, 55 arm, 30 run, 70
durability
Analysis: Bat flips
aside, Caratini still has plenty of Major League caliber tools and as he continues
to hold his own against tougher competition, he maintains his status as an
interesting prospect. Caratini's game power has continually lagged behind his
raw power, yet his game power has even tailed off further as a Cub as the
switch-hitter has just one home run during his tenure with the organization.
Fortunately, Caratini has continually cut his strikeout rate and his walk rate
has taken a big jump this year. He remains raw, but the reports on his
defensive work are strong enough to keep this converted infielder on the
catching depth chart with the possibility of a breakout remaining reasonable in
the future.
21. SP
Paul Blackburn
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 50
Risk: 4
Tools: 50 FB, 50 CB, 55 CH, 60
command, 60 durability
Analysis: Blackburn's stuff still hasn't taken the leap that the Cubs hoped for when they drafted him, but his pitchability has consistently helped him produce strong results. He has improved his command at each level while continually limiting the long ball. Progress has been methodical, but there may yet be a back-end starting pitcher in here.
22. SP
Tyler Skulina
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: August
2016
Grade: 55
Risk: 5(!)
Tools: 60
FB, 60 SL, 45 CH, 40 CB, 45 command, 70 durability
Analysis: Skulina is
massive, and I've often assumed that his frame would cause command problems
that would push him to the bullpen. Instead, Skulina has somehow maintained a
relatively consistent walk rate as he has climbed through the minors. His big
fastball-slider combination stands a good chance to get him to the Majors even
if his command falters, albeit in a relief role, but I'm back to thinking that
there's a real chance his big stuff gets enough of a command boost to be a
viable starting pitching candidate. If the command doesn't improve, he's a role
45 reliever. Not an unreasonable floor.
23. OF
Mark Zagunis
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: April 2017
Grade: 45
Risk: 2
Tools: 55
hit, 40 power, 70 discipline, 50 glove, 45 arm, 55 run, 70
durability
Analysis: Zagunis
has shifted completely away from his college role as a part-time
catcher/part-time outfielder in favor of a full-time outfield role. While that
certainly chops down his value in a big way, he continues to display elite
on-base skills, a bit of pop, and solid speed. Zagunis will never be a star,
but a plus athlete with elite on-base ability will always have a job, likely as
a fourth outfielder or perhaps even in a platoon role, especially if the power
continues to grow into game form.
24. RP
Corey Black
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: July 2015
Grade: 50
Risk: 1
Tools: 60
FB, 45 SL, 55 CH, 45 command, 55 durability
Analysis: I've had
Black listed as a reliever for the past few years and the Cubs finally made the
switch official recently. It only makes sense as Black's undersized frame
simply wouldn't hold up over the course of minor league starts, let alone for
full Major League seasons in the rotation. But that's not a knock on Black: in
his new role, he should flourish, especially given that he has curbed his
previously disastrously climbing walk rate. He's got a chance to pitch in the
7th or 8th inning later this year.
25. CF
Jacob Hannemann
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: April 2017
Grade: 55
Risk: 5
Tools: 60
hit, 50 power, 60 discipline, 65 glove, 50 arm, 65 run, 70 durability
Analysis: I continue
to occupy my spot as the high man on Hannemann, and that's just fine with
me. He runs extremely well, if a bit aggressively at times. He's a great
athlete as he has maintained plenty of his football physique in a good way. And
his plate approach continues to look better than I would have expected given
his missed development time in college. His results are still terrible: if the
risk scale went from 1-100 instead of 1-5, Hannemann would be at 95+. There's
oodles of projection to do here to see a valuable player, but I still see
plenty of it.
26. 3B
Jeimer Canderlario
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 50
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
hit, 50 power, 50 discipline, 45 glove, 60 arm, 35 run, 45 durability
Analysis: After a
complete collapse at Daytona in 2014 and a needed return to the Midwest League,
Candelario has enjoyed a surprising resurgence this year with a well-rounded
game emerging that features average defense and encouraging offense. He's
officially back on the map, even if he'll have a tough time reaching his 2013
high given that the body - while vastly improved - still needs more work.
27. SP
Justin Steele
Current
Level:
Extended Spring Training (off to Short-Season Eugene soon)
MLB ETA: July 2019
Grade: 50
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
FB, 45 CB, 35 CH, 40 command, 50 durability
Analysis: Of the
three mid-round bonus babies drafted in 2014, Steele is absolutely the least
exciting to me. I just don't see the ceiling. He seems like a relatively
polished swingman. Perhaps he'll move a bit more quickly than Cease or Sands,
but it's tough for me to see Steele ever growing into a solid rotation member.
It'll help to get a look at him in short-season ball.
28. 2B
Frandy Delarosa
Current
Level:
Extended Spring Training (off to Short-Season Eugene soon)
MLB ETA: April 2019
Grade: 50
Risk: 5
Tools: 55
hit, 50 power, 45 discipline, 50 glove, 50 arm, 55 run, 50 durability
Analysis: Delarosa
struggled through arguably the worst professional debut I've ever seen in 2013,
managing just 3 hits in 39 at bats with a stunning 20 strikeouts in the
Dominican Summer League. He turned things around in a big way as an 18-year-old
back in the DSL last summer and made his way stateside this spring where he
played well in Extended Spring Training. His calling cards are diverse with
plus athleticism giving him useful speed, a strong defensive profile up the
middle, and plenty to believe in with his bat...at least from the left side. I
won't be surprised if the Cubs scrap his switch hitting, forcing him to hit
lefty full time. His right-handed swing is unimpressive. Still, there's plenty
of talent here in the former $700,000 signee. He also happens to physically
look an awful lot like Arismendy Alcantara, for whatever that's worth.
29. SP
Daury Torrez
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 45
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
FB, 50 SL, 40 CH, 50 command, 60 durability
Analysis: Torrez has
continued to minimize walks in 2015, but Carolina League hitters have posed a
real challenge to him as their collective batting average against him is nearly
100 points higher than was the average of Midwest League hitters. It's not that
Torrez has gotten worse: there's just an appreciation now of how important it
is for him to locate his sinking fastball. I still see enough here for a fringe
starter, but Torrez will need to make a jump to get there.
30. RP
Juan Paniagua
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 50
Risk: 4
Tools: 60
FB, 50 CB, 50 command, 50 durability
Analysis: I worried
that Paniagua could slip into irrelevance without an impressive showing to
start 2015, but impress he has. Paniagua has used his huge fastball to throw
enough strikes to overwhelm an overmatched league. There are still things to
clean up, but two usable pitches can make a useful middle reliever.
31. C
Willson Contreras
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: April 2017
Grade: 45
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
hit, 50 power, 50 discipline, 50 glove, 55 arm, 45 run, 60 durability
Analysis: Despite
receiving a Cub-high $850,000 signing bonus in 2009, Contreras has largely
stayed under the radar during his climb up the system. A BABIP-fueled
first-half breakout this year has eroded that anonymity. But looking past the
BABIP jump, Contreras has maintained a solid walk rate while chopping his
strikeouts and adding power. That's the ideal recipe. A converted third
baseman, Contreras is plenty athletic. He has a chance to benefit from Kyle
Schwarber's promotion in a major way as a full-time gig in the second half
should give him the opportunity to confirm that his improvements are
legitimate.
32. SP
Rob Zastryzny
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: April
2017
Grade: 40
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
FB, 45 CB, 55 CH, 50 command, 60 durability
Analysis: Zastryzny
is tumbling down this list as he has been hit too hard at each level and a foot
injury will cost him at least two months of the 2015 season. Without tons of
stuff, Zastryzny needs tremendous command, yet without pitching regularly, his
arsenal can't get the needed boost to play up. Here's hoping he recovers in a
big way in the second half.
33. RP
Dave Berg
Current
Level:
Extended Spring Training (off to Short-Season Eugene soon)
MLB ETA: July 2016
Grade: 45
Risk: 2
Tools: 55
FB, 40 SL, 70 command, 80 durability
Analysis: It seems a
bit absurd, but I've come to appreciate Berg a bit more over the past couple of
weeks. While his fastball wouldn't overwhelm coming in at 83 from a traditional
delivery, it's actually impressive velocity from a submariner. I still don't
like his slider at all, but he doesn't walk anybody and can throw every day.
It'll be good for Berg to get into games as he could climb very quickly.
There's a chance for something here.
34. SP
Jonathan Martinez
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 40
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
FB, 50 SL, 60 CH, 60 command, 40 durability
Analysis: I've got a
real thing for three kinds of pitchers: (i) guys with huge fastballs, (ii) guys
with killer changeups, and (iii) guys who don't walk anybody. Martinez is
decidedly not the first guy, but he fulfills the latter two criteria
beautifully. It's tough to get a great read on him because the stuff is solid
but not special and he's not striking out anybody at the High-A level. Still,
as a return for Darwin Barney, Martinez is an absolute coup.
35. CF
Albert Almora
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 40
Risk: 5(!)
Tools: 60
hit, 55 power, 20 discipline, 60 glove, 55 arm, 55 run, 40 durability
Analysis: It's
basically unthinkable that Almora could be so far down this list given his
toolbox, but I put him here without questioning it. I've seen Almora put a
number of really impressive swings on balls from professional pitchers,
including Major League arms. There's no questioning his swing, his defense, or
his athleticism. It's all there. But an inability to lay off pitches can sabotage
the entire package, and it's getting to the point where it's tough to see any
other outcome with Almora. He still swings at every pitch he can touch with his
bat, resulting in piles and piles of weak groundouts. Almora rather
consistently looks like Bad Castro, the 2015 version of Starlin Castro who
chases every pitch off the plate away. If Almora couldn't improve this facet of
his game while watching the approaches of Kyle Schwarber and Dan Vogelbach, I
don't have a lot of hope for him. I'm sure that the industry values Almora
significantly more highly than I do and he's a Role 60 player if the discipline
even reaches a 40 grade. But that's years of improvement away from where he is
right now.
36. SP
Ivan Pineyro
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: April 2016
Grade: 45
Risk: 3
Tools: 50
FB, 40 CB, 60 CH, 50 command, 40 durability
Analysis: After
nearly falling off the prospect map entirely as a result of an injury-plagued,
ineffective 2014, Pineryo has reestablished himself with authority, cutting his
walks, kicking up his strikeouts, and working deeper into games without giving
up many homers. I still think that his breaking pitch is of the get-me-over
variety, but there's enough here that he should find himself on the 40-man
roster this winter with a spot on the Iowa-to-Chicago shuttle permanently
reserved for him.
37. RP
Starling Peralta
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 45
Risk: 4
Tools: 60
FB, 50 SL, 45 command, 60 durability
Analysis: Peralta is
a big guy with a big, mid-90s fastball. Unfortunately, the command is middling
and his slider hasn't yet taken the step forward that some predicted.
Nevertheless, the Diamondbacks saw enough to take a shot on him in the Rule 5
Draft a couple of years ago, and I think there's enough here for a 7th/8th
inning guy, although Peralta does need to take a couple of steps to get there
in his mid-20s.
38. RP
James Norwood
Current
Level:
Low-A South Bend
MLB ETA: April 2018
Grade: 40
Risk: 4
Tools: 60
FB, 45 CB, 35 SL, 45 CH, 45 command, 50 durability
Analysis: Norwood
has already lost over a month to injury this year, though the type and extent
of such injury is not immediately clear. Regardless, I liked his stuff a lot at
draft time last year and I'm still plenty bullish on Norwood. But he has had
command issues, so he needs to pitch.
39. CF
Kevonte Mitchell
Current
Level:
Extended Spring Training (off to Short-Season Eugene soon)
MLB ETA: July 2019
Grade: 50
Risk: 5
Tools: 55
hit, 60 power, 45 discipline, 50 glove, 60 arm, 60 run, 70 durability
Analysis: Drafted as
a third baseman, Mitchell is a great athlete who runs well. Unfortunately, he's
a basketball player playing baseball, so he's extremely raw. Fortunately,
the athleticism is so good that he's looked pretty good during the transition.
The body is there to be a superstar, but there's probably a 1-in-1,000 chance
of that actually happening. Still, if he can continue converting bits of his
athleticism into useful baseball skills, he'll be a great get. Pitch
recognition will be the big concern here.
40. RF
Jeffrey Baez
Current
Level:
Low-A South Bend
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 40
Risk: 4
Tools: 50
hit, 55 power, 45 discipline, 55 glove, 55 arm, 50 run, 70
durability
Analysis: The other
Baez still has plenty of skills and looks the part, but the wheels have come
off thus far in 2015. Baez is striking out far less, but the has completely
stopped hitting for any power in addition to poor on-base ability thus far.
It's a bad time for a lost year.
41. CF
Darryl "DJ" Wilson
Current
Level:
Draftee
MLB ETA: April 2020
Grade: 40
Risk: 5
Tools: 50
hit, 30 power, 50 discipline, 50 glove, 45 arm, 60 run, 45 durability
Analysis: As I noted
in my draft recap post, Wilson will always be "Not Alonzo Jones" to
me. His swing is smooth enough and he appears to be a good, if undersized,
athlete. While he runs well, I'm not sure there's enough speed to be a real
force on the basepaths. Overall, Wilson is a rather ho-hum prospect to me and
he's extremely far from relevance.
42. SP
Ryan Kellogg
Current
Level:
Draftee
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 40
Risk: 4
Tools: 40
FB, 40 SL, 40 CB, 55 CH, 60 command, 60 durability
Analysis: Had
Kellogg been eligible for the draft after his freshman season at Arizona State,
he may very well have found himself drafted in the first two rounds. Instead,
he was a slot bonus draftee in the fifth. There's some possibility that a
mechanical adjustment enables his stuff to play up, but it's a longshot.
43. 2B
Chesny Young
Current
Level:
High-A Myrtle Beach
MLB ETA: July 2017
Grade: 40
Risk: 4
Tools: 60
hit, 20 power, 65 discipline, 50 glove, 40 arm, 55 run, 50 durability
Analysis: It's hard
not to notice Young. After batting .374 in college, Young carries a composite
professional batting average of .336 thus far. On top of his batting average,
he has a 9.2% BB% and just a 12.8% K%. Defensively there's not much, but he
moves well enough to handle second base...probably. But about that bat: there's
no power in it at all. He has yet to homer professionally and he hit just 11
bombs in three years at Mercer. If he keeps hitting in the mid-.300s, he'll
find himself a job. He's a name to watch for that reason alone.
44. RP PJ
Francescon
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: July 2015
Grade: 40
Risk: 2
Tools: 50 FB, 50 SL, 50 command, 65
durability
Analysis: I say the
same thing every time I do one of these updates: there's absolutely nothing
special about Francescon's stuff. There's no particular reason to think that
he's going to make it any higher than he already has. Except, thing is, I love
watching him pitch. His fastball is in the low-90s with good tail and his
slider works just fine. He's been getting people out in a swingman capacity for
years, despite not having tremendous stuff or a third pitch. I'll keep rooting
for him.
45. RP
Donn Roach
Current
Level:
Triple-A Iowa
MLB ETA: June 2015
Grade: 40
Risk: 1
Tools: 55 FB, 45 SL, 55 command, 60
durability
Analysis: Roach is
never going to strike anybody out. Not ever. But if he avoids walking people
like he has so far in 2015, he's plenty useful thanks to extreme
groundball tendencies. Roach just throws his sinker all the time and gets
opposing hitters to pound it into the zone. He doesn't have a secondary pitch
to make him anything more than a long man, but there's value in a cheap long
man nonetheless.
46. CF
Charcer Burks
Current
Level:
Low-A South Bend
MLB ETA: April 2019
Grade: 40
Risk: 5
Tools: 45 hit, 30 power, 50 discipline, 55 glove, 40 arm, 65
run, 45 durability
Analysis: The rare ninth-round pick to sign for an overslot bonus,
Burks has proven that he can run in a useful way on a baseball diamond. His
hitting has a long way to go and he absolutely must stay in center given his
arm, but Burks has the ability to grow into something more over the coming
years. For now, simply holding his own in full-season ball is enough.
47. C Rafael
Lopez
Current
Level:
Triple-A Iowa
MLB ETA: June 2015
Grade: 40
Risk: 1
Tools: 45 hit, 30 power, 55 discipline, 50 glove, 50 arm, 30
run, 50 durability
Analysis: I debated whether or not Lopez should even go on this
list: he reached the Majors last year, and the disappearance of his power
really limits his ceiling. But there's something to having an MLB-ready backup
catcher at Triple-A, so he gets a mention. There was a time where I could have
squinted and seen Lopez as a platoon-type. No longer, as his power has
completely vanished.
48. RP
Matt Brazis
Current
Level:
Double-A Tennessee
MLB ETA: June 2016
Grade: 50
Risk: 5
Tools: 60 FB, 50 SL, 45 CB, 60
command, 20 durability
Analysis: Given that the Mariners designated Justin Ruggiano for
assignment earlier this month, it's tough to see Brazis as anything other than
gravy. Brazis also comes with plenty of stuff as two usable breaking pitches
complement a big fastball with good command. But, as always, there's a catch:
Brazis simply cannot stay healthy as he missed a big chunk of college with
injuries and he's missed almost all of this year as well. Plenty of arm, but
he's not healthy enough to use it.
49. RP
Ryan McNeil
Current
Level:
Low-A South Bend
MLB ETA: April 2019
Grade: 50
Risk: 5
Tools: 50 FB, 50 SL, 40 CH, 40
command, 30 durability
Analysis: McNeil injured his elbow in Extended Spring Training in
2013, underwent Tommy John surgery, missed the entire season, and returned for
only a dozen or so inning last year in the Northwest League. Needless to say,
the former prep third-round-pick desperately needs to pitch. His risk is
through the roof - much like Brazis's - but McNeil has the benefit of time on
his side as he's still just 21. He does need to pick up the pace as his results
have underwhelmed.
50. SP
Jeremy Null
Current
Level:
Low-A South Bend
MLB ETA: July 2018
Grade: 45
Risk: 5
Tools: 50 FB, 50 SL, 45 CH, 60
command, 30 durability
Analysis: Null has pitched his way into mention on this list by
posting an absurd walk rate of 0.57 BB/9. That's just crazy. Baseball America
had listed Null as the 441st best prospect for the 2014 draft, so it's not as
though he came completely out of nowhere. That said, he'll need to prove that his
command and body can both hold up despite his massive frame.
A trio of
players just missed this list and get their own paragraph. SS Carlos Penalver
has never hit, but, by all accounts, he has the chops to handle shortstop well.
That kind of glove always hangs around. OF Bijan Rademacher has
consistently produced good numbers until hitting a wall at Double-A
this year. If he adjusts, he could make himself relevant in a reserve
outfielder capacity. And SP Kyle Twomey, a former third round pick, hasn't
officially signed as a draftee and he may elect to return to USC for his senior
year. However, if he doesn't, there's still plenty of stuff for the former
top-100 player in the class of 2012 to make some noise with a much needed
developmental step or two. SP Ryan Williams may have earned a mention had I not
seen him in person, but he has absolutely no stuff with a slider that would be
positively obliterated in the Majors.
The final
prospects to get their own mention are a quintet of draftees who appear unlikely
to sign. 3B John Cresto has a projectable body with a good-looking bat, but
he'll need five years to make it; obviously that's enough time for plenty to go
wrong. SP John Kilichowski has enough stuff, but he also can return to
Vanderbilt for his junior season, so he's loaded with leverage. SP Jared
Padgett is a big lefty with a decent arsenal likely headed for Mississippi
State. SP Fitz Stadler is a Chicago-area kid who might be bought out of a
college commitment who comes with a huge frame. And my personal favorite, 36th
rounder CF Alonzo Jones, is an absolute burner with true 80-grade power and a
good enough swing from the left side for 50+ hit and 40+ power if it works out.
He's stronger than Billy Hamilton, though obviously he'd need to develop a lot in
order for his game speed to be as useful. Any of these five would make this list.
There we
have it. The longest snapshot in history.
In closing, just to make sure everyone is drooling, here's a Top Ten Under 25 list:
1. SS Addison Russell
2. 1B Anthony Rizzo
3. 3B Kris Bryant
4. SS Javier Baez
5. SP Kyle Hendricks
6. C/OF Kyle Schwarber
7. RF Jorge Soler
8. SP Duane Underwood
9. 2B/CF Arismendy Alcantara
10. RF Eloy Jimenez
3. 3B Kris Bryant
4. SS Javier Baez
5. SP Kyle Hendricks
6. C/OF Kyle Schwarber
7. RF Jorge Soler
8. SP Duane Underwood
9. 2B/CF Arismendy Alcantara
10. RF Eloy Jimenez
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