One More Pre-Playoffs Chicago Bears Mock 2026 Offseason

Earlier, I went through a full mock offseason. But a single mock draft is always so underwhelming, so here's another mock draft with the yielded roster assuming the same free agency period with signings of S Jaquan Brisker, TE Noah Fant, and LB D'Marco Jackson (more detail here).

#29: Bears draft Clemson DE T.J. Parker
The true best-case scenario. Parker and Oregon's Matayo Uiagalelei are the most likely gets at #29. Parker is the dream, even though he isn't quite as tall and quite as long as Dennis Allen wants, he's a plug and play three-down DE given his ability to stop the run.

#61: Bears draft Oregon S Dillon Thieneman
Thieneman continually makes it into this late-2nd round territory and I just don't get it. He looks like a star. He's a complete player. If he was 6-2, I think he'd go in the top half of the 1st round. For now, I'll be ecstatic taking him here instead.

There were good DT options here and there won't be later, but Thieneman is too good to pass up here.

#93: Bears draft Florida State DT Darrell Jackson Jr.
I had to pass on Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to make this pick, but I think that's OK. Jackson is fun. His athletic profile is outrageous at 6'5, 337 lbs. with a 7-2 wingspan. I'm not certain how good Jackson is at the moment, but he's a good run defender now in a physique. It's worth the shot here.

Bears trade #124, #207, #242, and #248 to Denver for #108
This is a lot of depth to surrender. But, given the roster construction at hand, it's worthwhile to get...

#108: Bears draft Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez
Rodriguez is an incredibly fun prospect. He was an elite college player against the run and the pass, and he has enough measurables to assume that he can start in the NFL despite average speed. But the best part of the profile? He was a QB at Virginia before transferring to Texas Tech to become a LB. He reads the field exceptionally well. Oh wait; the actual best part of the profile? He's the spiritual successor to the Peanut Punch. Rodriguez must be a Bear.

Bears trade TE Cole Kmet to New York Jets for #139
Referenced in the earlier blog post, this is needed for cap space.

#139: Bears draft Texas S Michael Taaffe
Taaffe has a really interesting profile. He's way underweight at 190 lbs. But he's overcome that at Texas, brings tons of special teams value, and his primary limitation -- tackling in the box -- is the primary strength of Brisker and Thieneman. Taaffe can play off of those guys well, even serving as Kyler Gordon's backup in the slot. He'd be a nice roster fit.

#168: Bears draft Georgia TE Lawson Luckie
Luckie isn't a great prospect. He's a subpar blocking TE in an offense that definitely wants its TEs to block. But he's a strong receiving target and can serve as a quality red zone receiving option as he develops the rest of his game. I needed to give Ben Johnson something in this Draft!

Proof:

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

TE (4): Colston Loveland, Noah Fant, Lawson Luckie, FREE AGENT

WR (5): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Jahdae Walker, FREE AGENT

OT (4): Darnell Wright, Ozzy Trapilo, Theo Benedet, FREE AGENT

OG (3): Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Kiran Amegadjie

C (2):   Drew Dalman, Luke Newman

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo, Austin Booker, Daniel Hardy, T.J. Parker

DT (5): Grady Jarrett, Gervon Dexter, Shemar Turner, Darrell Jackson Jr, FREE AGENT

ILB (2): T.J. Edwards, D'Marco Jackson

OLB (4): Amen Ogbongbemiga, Noah Sewell, Ruben Hyppolite, Jacob Rodriguez

CB (6): Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Tyrique Stevenson, Josh Blackwell, Terell Smith, Zah Frazier

S (5):  Jaquan Brisker, Dillon Thieneman, Michael Taaffe, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

I never know how these mocks are going to go when I start. But this one offers a really nice contrast to the one in the prior post. That mock featured tons of depth additions across the roster, but the combination of Parker and Thieneman at the top of this class is just better. I could've gone a few different directions in the 3rd round, but I'm increasingly convinced that the Bears need to add a mid-round DT prospect to pour some extra juice into that room.

Enjoy!

Chicago Bears Mock 2026 Offseason: Looking Ahead Before the Playoffs

This blog and its writer will shift focus exclusively to the NFL playoffs next week. This is a strange feeling. At this point in the year, I'm normally locked in on free agency and digging into draft prep. But no. This year, it'll be all about the Packers, Rams, 49ers, or Seahawks.

So, before next week starts, here's my first real look to the 2026 Bears.

Internal Decisions

Thankfully, the 2026 Bears have no questions at the top: Ben Johnson will be the head coach. Nice! It's plausible that Declan Doyle and/or Dennis Allen could leave for promotions elsewhere, but for now, we'll assume that the coaching staff remains the same.

Turning to the roster, the Bears find themselves in a salary cap crunch for the first time in a long time. Spotrac shows the roster at $300.9M of spending against an adjusted cap of $309.4M, but that's before (i) a practice squad, (ii) signing the Draft class, and (iii) filling out the remaining unfilled roster spots with minimum-salary players. Functionally, the Bears are $14.4M over the 2026 cap before cutting players and/or restructuring deals; this also doesn't leave the roughly $10M of cap space that teams like to leave for in-season roster churn. Additionally, there's no Nate Davis or Gerald Everett on this roster, a floundering player with a big cap number but minimal dead cap left behind when cut.

Instead, there are a few players who offer meaningful cap savings if they are jettisoned. Namely:

• LB Tremaine Edmunds: $17.4M cap number, $2.4M dead cap
• TE Cole Kmet: $11.6M cap number, $3.2M dead cap
• RB D'Andre Swift: $8.8M cap number, $1.3M dead cap

Edmunds has had a solid season, but nothing close to a $15M net season given the market value for LBs. He figures to be cut, creating an opening next to TJ Edwards. Swift is more likely to receive an extension than be cut at this point after a very impressive season. Kmet is tricky. He's underwhelming, but an $8.4M net cap number isn't outrageous and the TE market is sparse. I wonder if Kmet might get a modest extension that lowers his cap number. TE is simply too important to the Ben Johnson offense to get thin at that spot. Unfortunately, cap needs dictate Kmet moving on. But unlike Edmunds, Kmet should have market value on a one-year, $10M deal which is what an acquiring team would obtain. We'll say Kmet gets shipped out for a 5th-round pick.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Bears feature two players from the 2023 Draft class likely to earn Proven Performance Escalator pay bumps in DT Gervon Dexter and CB Tyrique Stevenson. Dexter has underwhelmed this year after looking like an ascending player, but he's going to stick around in a starting capacity, especially given his remaining upside as a pass rusher. Stevenson has enjoyed a nice bounce-back season after a disastrous 2024, buried in the shadow of a breakout season by Nahshon Wright. Both Dexter and Stevenson will see their base salaries jump from $1.6M to $3.5M next year, adding $3.8M against the cap.

Noah Sewell was likely headed for a release, but his Achilles injury complicates the expected cap savings if he remains unable to play in 2026. For now, we'll assume that he stays on the roster even if he's only available to play on the back half of the schedule.

For now, let's assume minimal movement:

• Edmunds cut ($15M net cap savings, $2.4M dead cap)
• Swift stays on his current deal (no cap change)
• Kmet is traded for a 5th-round pick
• Dexter and Stevenson stay, receiving their PPEs ($3.8M net cap addition)
• RB Roschon Johnson cut ($1.1M net cap savings, $0.2M dead cap)
• ERFA OT Theo Benedet and RFA DE Daniel Hardy both return on minimum deals
• Yes, I know that Hardy doesn't actually need to come back on a minimum deal, but it seems awfully likely.

All we've done is generate $11.2M in cap space while creating a hole at WLB.

Free Agency

Last year, the approach in free agency was clear: add talent in the interior offensive line and along the defensive line. Enter Drew Dalman, Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Dayo Odeyingbo, and Grady Jarrett before the Draft weekend additions of Ozzy Trapilo, Shemar Turner, and Luke Newman. The additions on the offensive line were dramatically more impactful than the defensive additions. So it goes.

This year, the goals are clear but the ability to plug them is tough. To wit:

• Safeties matter. Both Kevin Byard and Jaquan Brisker are free agents. So are Jonathan Owens, Elijah Hicks, and Jaylon Jones. That's...all of them. Gotta get some safeties.
• Who is bringing the pass rush juice? Top-level DEs are very expensive and the Bears lack the cap space to make a play for Trey Hendrickson or another free agent without engaging in the type of cap shenanigans that they have otherwise avoided.
• Who replaces Edmunds at LB? I expect a modest free agent signing.
• Is Zah Frazier going to play football again? And did Terell Smith's patellar heal appropriately? If not, and assuming that Nahshon Wright proves way too expensive to bring back, the Bears need a bit more depth at CB.
• Is Kiran Amegadjie still a developmental OL prospect? If so, great! He becomes the top backup at G, replacing Ryan Bates. If not, the Bears need to find another developmental OL.

Free agency isn't going to offer a ton of solutions. But it can help heading into the Draft. The biggest needs are at LB, TE, and S. Spotrac projects personal favorite S Jaquan Brisker to receive a three-year, $34.1M deal. Brisker isn't a star, but he's the heart and soul of the Bears defense. While I don't like the idea of engaging in cap shenanigans, I'd be very tempted to find a way to sign Brisker if the Bears can keep his Y1 cap hit in the $7M neighborhood.

• Bears sign TE Noah Fant to a one-year, $3M deal
• Fant is no star. But he's a low-end starting-caliber TE who can thrive in the TE2 or TE3 slot for the Bears and parlay a year in Ben Johnson's offense into a heftier payday next offseason.
• Bears extend C Drew Dalman via a two-year, $30M extension
• The value of this deal shows itself below. Dalman proved to be an idyllic fit in Johnson's offense and he'll be just 28 next year. After years of disastrous play at the pivot, Dalman has been a godsend for Bears fans. Dalman carries a $14M cap hit, but this extension reworks his deal by reducing his 2026 base salary from $11M to $2M with his new deal including a $10M signing bonus to give him $1M in additional 2026 money, guarantees in 2027, and more job security going forward. It also frees up $6.5M of 2026 cap space, which is great because...
• Bears sign S Jaquan Brisker to a three-year, $34.1M deal
• Here we go. Setting aside workout/roster bonuses, we'll follow the Josh Metellus deal and say that Brisker gets a $12M signing bonus on a deal that includes a $3M base salary in 2026. That keeps Brisker's 2026 cap hit right at $7M. That'll play. He'd get something like $25M guaranteed with this structure.
• If we figure that his base salaries/roster bonuses in 2027 and 2028 need to account for $19M, we'll give him $9M in 2027 and $10M in 2028, yielding cap numbers in those seasons of $13M and $14M respectively. Not ideal but not unworkable.
• Brisker is a risky extension candidate given his history of concussions, but he's a key leader on defense. Losing both Brisker and Byard would be painful.
• Bears sign LB D'Marco Jackson to a one-year, $2M deal
• Jackson has played well in limited action this year. He has also played his way into a core special teams role. Can the Bears afford to carry Amen Ogbongbemiga and Jackson? I think so, especially as a hedge against Ruben Hyppolite being unplayable at LB.

If you're underwhelmed by this free agency period, understood -- me too! Such is life up at the cap line.

Draft

Good teams make their moves at the Draft. Assuming the free agency period above, the Bears enter the Draft with a few absolutely massive needs, as follows:

• DE
• While Sweat, Odeyingbo, and Booker figure to eat most of the reps, the Bears need an infusion of talent, especially given the likelihood that Sweat and Odeyingbo aren't here in 2027.
• DT
• The only DTs on the roster would be Jarrett, Dexter, and Shemar Turner as he returns from a torn ACL.
• TE2/TE3
• S

Entering the Draft, all of the starting spots would be filled, at least nominally, except for the S job next to Brisker. So here goes:

Bears trade TE Cole Kmet to New York Jets for #139

Technically a 4th, but it's the last pick of the compensatory selections and allows the Jets to bring in a big target for their new QB.

#29: Bears draft Ohio State DT Kayden McDonald

No way McDonald makes it this far, right? Well, he has basically the same athletic profile as Tyleik Williams, another Ohio State DT who made it to #28 last year. McDonald would be an ideal fit for this roster. I gave heavy consideration to Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq and Utah OT Caleb Lomu here, too. Both represent excellent value. The DE options were less compelling.

Bears trade #61 to Kansas City for #73, #129, and a 2027 4th

USC S Kamari Ramsey would've been the pick here, but he went off the board at #60. So, this trade brings in some extra picks despite only moderate value.

#73: Bears draft Toledo S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren

I'm in deep on EMW. Deep. He's go the look of a cornerstone defender with the springiness and attitude to make big plays. Putting him next to Brisker is a great look at the back of the secondary.

#93: Bears draft Penn State S Zakee Wheatley

OK, this was really tough. I settled on Wheatley for four reasons. First, Wheatley is a turnover machine. Second, the safety depth chart is still scary until he joins the party. Third, the relative value of my other choice -- Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez -- isn't quite as high as another safety. And fourth, Dennis Allen started playing some three-safety looks. I would've preferred DE Dani Dennis-Sutton in this spot, but he didn't make it that far.

#124: Cincinnati TE Joe Royer

I took another big risk here, delaying the DE pick yet again. But ensuring that I got Royer in the building was worth it. Ben Johnson is going to have fun with Royer, a former Ohio State TE who shined as a Bearcat.

#129: Ohio State DE Kenyatta Jackson

Unfortunately, my risk at #124 hurt as Notre Dame DE Boubacar Traore came off the board at #125. Of course Philly nabbed my DE. Ugh. That yields an overdraft in this spot. Jackson looks like he'll be able to step in a run defender, but he lacks the explosiveness of an exciting pass rusher. Bummer. He does have the kind of frame that Dennis Allen wants.

#139: Louisville DE Clev Lubin

Lubin is a really interesting, riskier pick. It would be better for this roster to take a LB, RB, or even WR. But no. It's Lubin. Lubin is basically the opposite profile to Jackson. Jackson was a top-50 recruit from football factory Chaminade-Madonna in Florida who spent four years at Ohio State. Lubin, on the other hand, went to Army, then Iowa Western, then Coastal Carolina, and then finally Louisville. At both Coastal Carolina and Louisville, Lubin used his electric first step to cause havoc as a pass rusher. At 6'3", 250 lbs., he lacks the size to play 4-3 DE in anything other than an obvious passing situation. But at #139, it's worth buying his upside as a pass rusher.

#168: Houston TE Tanner Koziol

The success of the WR room opened up this option and caused me to reallocate a roster spot from a 6th WR to a 4th TE. Koziol is a polished receiver and a subpar blocker. If he develops as a blocker, great! If not, he's a nice addition as a receiving threat here.

#207: TCU WR Eric McAlister

McAlister comes with some off-field baggage, but he's got the body of an NFL WR and enjoyed a massive season this year for the Horned Frogs (72/1,190/10).

#242: Oregon RB Noah Whittington

This is guaranteed to work out as well as Monangai, right?

#248: Iowa S Xavier Nwankpa

I still love Nwankpa, even though he clearly lacks the speed to be a serious NFL safety.

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (3): D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, Noah Whittington

TE (4): Colston Loveland, Noah Fant, Joe Royer, Tanner Koziol

WR (5): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Jahdae Walker, Eric McAlister

OT (4): Darnell Wright, Ozzy Trapilo, Theo Benedet, FREE AGENT

OG (3): Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Kiran Amegadjie

C (2):   Drew Dalman, Luke Newman

DE (6): Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo, Austin Booker, Daniel Hardy, Kenyatta Jackson, Clev Lubin

DT (4): Grady Jarrett, Gervon Dexter, Shemar Turner, Kayden McDonald

ILB (2): T.J. Edwards, D'Marco Jackson

OLB (3): Amen Ogbongbemiga, Noah Sewell, Ruben Hyppolite

CB (6): Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Tyrique Stevenson, Josh Blackwell, Terell Smith, Zah Frazier

S (5):  Jaquan Brisker, Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Zakee Wheatley, Xavier Nwankpa, FREE AGENT

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

Proof from PFF below:

Not bad. But realistically, most of the improvement for this team will need to come from within. No pressure, Caleb!

Replacing James Franklin: Looking for the Next Penn State Football Head Coach

Man. This coaching search is intense. There are so many names that make sense. There are so many different ways that this could go. I don't want to consider every possibility, but I do want to address a ton of them.

As we look to possibilities, it's important to note that the next Penn State coach will inherit a generally strong program. There's this bizarre notion floating around that James Franklin inherited a nightmare; that's false. Bill O'Brien inherited a nightmare. It's true that the PSU job had significant issues in 2014 when JFF arrived due to a continuing postseason ban and scholarship reductions, but it was nothing like what BOB took over.

Moving to the job, there are two big thoughts that permeate my consideration:

1. Surely an offensive coach is the way to go in 2025...right? This is how I interpreted the Bears' head coaching search at the beginning of the year. Getting an offensive mastermind to pair with a rotating cast of defensive coordinators should be a path to success. So, while it isn't necessary, I'd lean toward an offensive coach.
2. Adam Breneman indicated that sources told him that the new PSU head coach will be the highest-paid coach in all of college football. Penn State is jumping into the deep end. So, nobody gets kept from the list for financial reasons.

With that said, let's get to the list. I decided to limit myself to a very lucky 21 names. Which is a ton. A ton. But the search is so broad at this point that it's worth at least mentioning these guys. Let's go!

21. Lane Kiffin (Mississippi head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: Kiffin has had plenty of success, specifically with quarterbacks. You'd think that his defenses would be better given that his dad was star NFL defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin, but the offensive production is there.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: So many reasons, but for now, we'll limit this to the fact that Kiffin is a terrible cultural fit at conservative Penn State.
• Plausibility: Long shot
• Rob's Excitement Level: Very low

20. Nick Saban (media personality)

• Why He Makes Sense: He's Nick Saban. Come on.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: Saban appears to have very little interest in getting back into coaching. He's 74 this week.
• Plausibility: Extreme long shot
• Rob's Excitement Level: Pretty low

19. Urban Meyer (media personality)

• Why He Makes Sense: He's Urban Meyer. Come on.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: There are some concerns about Meyer's fit in the new era of college football where players have more power. His stint with the Jacksonville Jaguars was famously disastrous.
• Plausibility: Long shot
• Rob's Excitement Level: Exceptionally low

18. Terry Smith (Penn State interim head coach and cornerbacks coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: Smith is a Penn State lifer and a top-level recruiter.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: At 56, Smith hasn't even been a coordinator. He'd be overmatched taking over the Penn State job.
• Plausibility: Extreme long shot
• Rob's Excitement Level: Very low (but I do hope that Terry Smith comes back at CB coach)

17. Lincoln Riley (USC head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: Offense, offense, and more offense. Riley has produced some of the strongest results of any college coach in recent memory...
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: ...but not recently. And Riley hasn't coached or recruited in the northeast or DMV area. He's also the head coach at USC; Penn State isn't an upgrade for him.
• Plausibility: Extreme long shot
• Rob's Excitement Level: Medium

[note: there's a massive gap in my interest level from #17 to #16 and following]

16. Manny Diaz (Duke head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: Diaz has experience in State College after a successful two-year stint as defensive coordinator. He's from recruiting-rich southeast Florida. He has P4 head coaching experience at Miami and Duke.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: That head coaching experience isn't great, especially at Miami. Despite his experience at PSU, he very much isn't a native son and he's a defensive coach. The fit with current defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is nightmare fuel; Knowles would be asked to leave.
• Plausibility: Unlikely
• Rob's Excitement Level: Modest

15. Clark Lea (Vanderbilt head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: He's winning at Vanderbilt. After winning SEC Coach of the Year in 2024 for going 7-6, he's got the Commodores at 7-1.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: He's from Nashville and went to Vanderbilt. He spent a couple of years at Syracuse, but otherwise hasn't been in the northeast. Defensive background.
• Plausibility: Unlikely
• Rob's Excitement Level: Rather low (but he's probably a better choice than Brady)

14. Pat Fitzgerald (high school volunteer)

• Why He Makes Sense: Fitzgerald won 110 games at Northwestern. Northwestern. Fitzgerald was long though to be on the short list to replace Joe Paterno whenever the time came. He's from Big Ten country (Illinois). He had three 10-win seasons at Northwestern. Respect for winning at places that traditionally stink.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: Fitzgerald hasn't coached in three years. His last two Northwestern teams combined to go 4-20. The hazing scandal that got him fired isn't the freshest, but it's not a good look.
• Plausibility: Long shot
• Rob's Excitement Level: Moderate

13. Joe Brady (Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator)

• Why He Makes Sense: Brady checks a ton of boxes. Like Diaz, he's from recruiting-rich southeast Florida. He was a graduate assistant at Penn State for two years in 2015-16. He has NFL coordinator experience. He has always coached on the offensive side of the ball. 2019 LSU: wow! He has a Broyles Award on his mantle. And it's tough to argue with what Josh Allen has become.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: Only two years as an offensive coordinator. Never a head coach. Unclear whether he actually want to be a college coach.
• Plausibility: Medium
• Rob's Excitement Level: Medium

12. Ryan Silverfield (Memphis head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: Silverfield has turned Memphis into arguably the top G5 program in the country. Memphis went 10-3 in 2023, 11-2 in 2024, and is 7-1 with a clear path to the CFP in 2025. Silverfield is on track for a P4 job this winter. He also has NFL experience. He's an offensive line coach by nature.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: Everything else. He's from Jacksonville, Florida with no experience in the northeast at all. 
• Plausibility: Not the longest of long shots...but not likely, either
• Rob's Excitement Level: Sneaky high

11. Will Stein (Oregon offensive coordinator)

• Why He Makes Sense: Stein's offenses have been very productive. It helps that he's had elite quarterback play between Dillon Gabriel and Dante Moore, but Stein's units have worked. His geographic experience isn't helpful, but could he be the offensive version of Dan Lanning? Maybe.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: He's from Louisville and has since coached in Texas and Oregon. He has only been a coordinator for three seasons.
• Plausibility: Extremely high -- if PSU offered, Stein would surely take the job
• Rob's Excitement Level: Moderate -- I'm intrigued

10. Matt Rhule (Nebraska head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: This has been covered plenty. Rhule is a Penn State letterman from State College Area High School. Tons of experience in the northeast. He secured consecutive 10-win seasons at Temple. He won 11 games at Baylor. He has improved each year at Nebraska and has them in line for a meaningfully successful year in 2025. Rhule also has NFL experience as a head coach, record notwithstanding. He has longstanding connections with Penn State Athletic Director Pat Kraft.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: Franklin was fired when the 2025 season fell apart against UCLA and Northwestern, but he has on thin ice because of his inability to beat top-level competition. Rhule's Temple teams beat #21 East Carolina in 2014, #21 Memphis in 2015, and #20 Navy in 2016. That's it for ranked wins. Rhule could plausibly go 10-2 this year...and 0-1 against ranked opponents. He has brought Nebraska back to respectability, but can that really be enough?
• Plausibility: High
• Rob's Excitement Level: Medium-low

9. Matt Campbell (Iowa State head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: He's from eastern Ohio and spent all of his coaching career in Ohio until taking the Iowa State job in 2016. Campbell has been good at Iowa State. Not great, but good. In the decade before Campbell arrived, Iowa State has one winning season, going 7-6 in 2009. Campbell has seven winning seasons in nine years. Winning at a bad program is impressive.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: What's the ceiling here? It probably isn't that high. Campbell isn't going to energize the program.
• Plausibility: Reasonably high
• Rob's Excitement Level: Pretty low 

8. Eliah Drinkwitz (Missouri head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: Drinkwitz has built Missouri into a legitimate contender and his recruiting has really picked up. He has an offensive background.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: Drinkwitz hasn't lived or worked in the northeast at all. But he's a highly successful coach in the SEC; this isn't the biggest concern.
• Plausibility: Medium
• Rob's Excitement Level: Medium-plus

7. Kalen DeBoer (Alabama head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: DeBoer has won everywhere. He's 120-17 as a head coach! He went 25-3 at Washington! He's an offensive coach with big success at every stop. As a South Dakota native whose entire pre-Alabama career was spent as Sioux Falls, Southern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, Fresno State, Indiana, and Washington. He has lived in smaller-caliber gigs and thrived there.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: No experience in the northeast. That's the only blemish.
• Plausibility: Low...but not zero. There are murmurs that DeBoer and Alabama aren't a match made in heaven.
• Rob's Excitement Level: Extreme

6. Marcus Freeman (Notre Dame head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: Freeman has succeeded at Notre Dame and is highly desired by NFL and elite college programs alike. Freeman grew up in Ohio, played at Ohio State, and has coached at Ohio State, Kent State, Purdue, and Cincinnati; his whole career has been spent in quality Penn State recruiting territory. Surely he'd recruit linebackers at an elite level.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: He's a poor match with Knowles. There will be concerns about him jumping to the NFL or to Ohio State if that job comes open.
• Plausibility: Long shot
• Rob's Excitement Level: Extreme

5. Mike Elko (Texas A&M head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: Elko is absolutely killing it. He's from New Jersey. He played at Penn. He spent much of his career in the northeast. He has succeeded at Duke and at Texas A&M. A&M figures to win at least 11 regular season games this year. Wow.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: A&M has oil money. Elko would want to put his stamp on the Penn State defense, too...but at this point, who cares? You let him do it.
• Plausibility: Long shot
• Rob's Excitement Level: Very high

4. Curt Cignetti (Indiana head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: If you've paid any attention in the past couple of years, this is obvious. Cignetti is 19-2 at Indiana. He's from Pittsburgh. He has coached all over the place. He's 138-37 as a head coach, which is good...but when we update that to 71-11 between James Madison and Indiana, it gets considerably more impressive. He played quarterback at West Virginia and his offenses have been unbelievably successful.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: Cignetti signed an eight-year extension at $11.6M per year this month. He's got a great thing going at Indiana. He won't leave Indiana unless he doesn't think he can WIN there...and the Hoosiers are ranked #2. He's also old (64), but that doesn't matter if he can win for a decade.
• Plausibility: Extremely unlikely, especially after his second extension
• Rob's Excitement Level: Tippy top of the list

3. Brian Hartline (Ohio State offensive coordinator)

• Why He Makes Sense: Hartline is a unicorn. He only has three years of offensive coordinator experience...but it's really only this year as he shared the co-OC designation with Chip Kelly previously. Hartline has only ever coached at Ohio State. But my God, the wide receiver production has been absurd. The Ohio State offense has continued to roll with Hartline taking over and the ability to attract elite WR talent might be the single biggest gap for Penn State's next coaching staff to fill. Hartline is from Ohio, too.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: Every other reason? Hartline hasn't been a head coach. He hasn't coached in the NFL. He has really only been a co-coordinator before this year. He is exclusively associated with a rival school. If the Ohio State job comes open, surely he'd take it in a heartbeat.
• Plausibility: Honestly, I don't know but I lean toward more unlikely than likely given Hartline's OSU connections
• Rob's Excitement Level: Very high

2. Dan Mullen (UNLV head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: I haven't heard a peep about Mullen, but I don't know why. He checks a lot of boxes. He was born in southeast Pennsylvania, grew up in New Hampshire, and came back to Pennsylvania to play college football. Then, he hopped aboard the Urban Meyer coaching train and following Meyer from Bowling Green to Utah to Florida before taking the head coaching job at Mississippi State. Mullen had seven winning seasons in nine years at Mississippi State, an incredible performance, before he left to take the Florida job. Perception is that Mullen struggled at Florida; perception is dumb. Mullen's teams finished ranked 7th, 6th, and 13th in his first three years; he was fired after going 5-6 in year four. Since Mullen left, Florida has three losing seasons and a high-water mark of 8-5 in 2024. Mullen now has UNLV on track for a double-digit victory season at a school that had one winning season from 2001-22. Very impressive stuff. Mullen has exclusively coached quarterbacks and wide receivers. Some of his quarterbacks: Alex Smith, Tim Tebow, Dak Prescott, and Kyle Trask. Wow.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: Maybe things got weird at Florida? Maybe Mullen doesn't want to come back to the northeast? Maybe he really enjoys being a big fish in a small pond in the Mountain West? I don't know. Mullen just makes sense.
• Plausibility: Extremely high
• Rob's Excitement Level: Pretty high

1. Jedd Fisch (Washington head coach)

• Why He Makes Sense: Fisch is very similar to his predecessor at Washington. Like DeBoer, Fisch has won all over the place. He's from New Jersey. He has always been an offensive coach, working with quarterbacks and wide receivers. He has coached in the NFL at numerous stops, in college at numerous stops, in the northeast, the midwest, the southeast, and the west coast. He has been on staffs with Steve Spurrier, Pete Carroll, Jim Harbaugh, and Sean McVay. He took Arizona from one win to 10 wins in two years; Arizona! He has Washington looking very strong. And at just 49, he has plenty of runway left. Eagles GM Howie Roseman was his college roommate.
• Why He Doesn't Make Sense: Honestly, I can't think of a reason. He's already making $7.75M at Washington, but Penn State surely has the financial resources to top that in a meaningful way.
• Plausibility: Very high
• Rob's Excitement Level: Extreme

There we have it. So many options. I'm going to hold out hope for one of the top three.

Thoughts on the End of James Franklin's Tenure at Penn State

When the Chicago Bears fired Lovie Smith following a 10-6, non-playoff season in 2012, I was ready for the Bears to try something different. Smith's players always loved him and always played hard, but Smith was entirely unable to find even a league-average offense during his tenure. After nine years, it was time. Of course, the 12 seasons that followed were...underwhelming. Marc Trestman got off to a good start before imploding; he lasted just two season. John Fox apparently retired by taking the Bears job; he muddled through three crummy years. Matt Nagy got off to a scorching hot start in 2018 after GM Ryan Poles mortgaged the 2020s for that roster, but one missed field goal (preceded by many other missed field goals and extra points) torpedoed his tenure. Then Matt Eberflus happened. Yuck. Thankfully, Ben Johnson is here to save the day. The Bears wandered in the coaching wilderness for 12 years after Smith left. But it was still the right move. Smith's tenure had run its course and it was time to try someone new, risk be damned.

The firing of James Franklin has some similarities. Franklin spent 11.5 years at the helm in State College and oversaw a slew of elite defenses with some reasonably strong offenses. We'll go through Franklin's tenure in much more detail below, but suffice it to say, his five top-10 finishes are nothing to sneeze at! Unfortunately, Franklin built his reputation as a coach who consistently handled teams with lesser talent but couldn't beat peers or more talented squads. That approach will get a coach a lot of runway. Lovie Smith avoided bottoming out with the Bears...but he also proved unable to push the Bears over the top. At some point, a team needs to try something new.

Unlike Lovie Smith, Franklin bottomed out. True, Penn State is only 3-3, which is a mediocre record on its face. But things look much worse with just a bit of investigation. Penn State struggled to put away Nevada, FIU, and Villanova, then infamously mustered just 109 yards and three points through three quarters against Oregon. Still, Franklin was in fine shape...until losing outright as a 25.5-point favorite at UCLA and as a 21-point favorite at home to Northwestern. It's going to get worse. Penn State's problems -- subpar DT and LB play combined with a non-functioning passing offense -- will be exploited by the more talented opponents on their roster in the coming weeks. If interim coach Terry Smith can get the team to six wins, it will be a tremendous accomplishment. This is the reality that got Franklin fired.

Franklin politicked for years to get his preferred "alignment" with a university president and athletic director. He got it in Neeli Bendapudi and Pat Kraft. Franklin asked for increased financial investment. He got it, primarily in the form of his hand-picked coordinators in Andy Kotelnicki and Jim Knowles. And the results? Disastrous.

Add it all up and it was time for Franklin to go. He put his eggs into the 2025 basket and then failed spectacularly. Kudos to Kraft and the athletic department for deciding to eat the $50M left on Franklin's deal in an effort to reorient the ship.

The Penn State Football Paradigm Has Shifted

The first two years of the James Franklin era at Penn State were rough. The Nittany Lions, mired in the post-Sandusky sanctions that stunted the program's roster, shuffled through a couple of years of wildly unimpressive 7-6 records. The wins in 2014? UCF, Akron, Rutgers, UMass, Indiana, Temple, and Boston College. Four of those were one-score wins. The wins in 2015? Buffalo, Rutgers, San Diego State, Army, Indiana, Maryland, and Illinois. Just two of those were one-score wins, so that was improvement I guess? None of that matters. After a rough September in 2016, everything changed. Penn State showed the ability to play with the big boys in 2016 and, most notably, immediately stopped losing to mediocre teams. For a team that lost to Temple and Northwestern in 2015 after losing to Northwestern, Maryland, and Illinois in 2014, Penn State ceased succumbing to scrubs. To wit:

From 2016 through yesterday and excluding the 2020 season (which I always exclude because what in the world was 2020?), Penn State's record is 86-26. Of those 26 losses, only four have come to teams that managed only single-digit wins:

• 2016 Pitt went 8-5. Nittany lost 42-39 in Pittsburgh. 2016 Pitt played a brutal schedule and also took down 14-1 national champion Clemson.
• 2018 Michigan State went 7-6. That 21-17 loss was a terrible loss.
• 2021 Illinois went 5-7. Do I need to delve into the 9OT loss? Sean Clifford, clearly injured still following his exit from the Iowa game the week before, played his worst game. Illinois QB Art Sitkowski threw for 38 yards in the win.
• 2021 Arkansas went 9-4. I'm not sure what to do with bowl games littered with opt-outs.

So, to be clear, 22 of those 26 losses came to teams with 10+ wins. As of this morning, Penn State hadn't lost to a team that ended the year with fewer than 11 wins since 2021 Arkansas.

Over Franklin's tenure, some teams have moved into the elite tier. After largely living in the same tier as Penn State for decades, Kirby Smart arrived and moved Georgia into the tippy top. Oregon was great a decade ago, then wandered in the wilderness before Dan Lanning showed up and reestablished the championship pedigree. Other teams have moved into the elite tier and then back out of it. Here's looking at you, Clemson and Michigan.

Franklin never took that step into the elite tier. His now infamous "great to elite" speech following the second straight one-point loss to Ohio State in 2018 has proved prescient in unintended ways. Still, in an effort to get over the hump, Franklin has facilitated the employment of:

• A football-friendly university president (Neeli Bendapudi)
• A football-focused athletic director (Pat Kraft)
• A rising-star offensive coordinator with a top-dollar contract (Andy Kotelnicki)
• The highest-paid defensive coordinator in the country (Jim Knowles)

Penn State was, arguably, doing everything it took to get on the path to elite production. But even if that didn't work, the floor was insanely high.

Until today. Everything changed today.

We start with Knowles. After handling the overmatched preseason opposition, the PSU defense held Oregon to relative meager production in the first half, allowing just three points. And then...

• Oregon: 10 plays, 80 yards, TD
• Oregon: 10 plays, 75 yards, TD
• Oregon: 6 plays, 7 yards, punt
• Oregon: 7 plays, 25 yards, TD
• Oregon: 1 play, 25 yards, TD
• UCLA: 11 plays, 75 yards, TD
• UCLA: 7 plays, 40 yards, FG
• UCLA: 17 plays, 75 yards, TD
• UCLA: 6 plays, 68 yards, TD
• UCLA: 3 plays, 17 yards, FG (stopped by clock)
• UCLA: 6 plays, 8 yards, punt
• UCLA: 8 plays, 75 yards, TD

Ummm, wut? Over those 12 possessions (excluding Oregon's end-of-half kneel down), that's eight TDs, two FGs, and two punts. Unforgiveable. That's unacceptable for an Arena League defense. Sure, Knowles had to deal with the loss of athletic LB Tony Rojas this week, but he's supposed to be the top defensive mind in the country. Surely he can survive against UCLA without one LB. But no. Knowles was either unwilling to play a spy against UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava or, when he did play a spy, failed to have a player ready to go with sufficient athleticism to hang with Nico. Dani Dennis-Sutton was spying on the last UCLA TD which, well, isn't going to work.

When Sean Clifford got hurt at Iowa in 2021, it cratered the season because Ta'Quan Roberson was completely incapable of operating the offense. Clifford played hurt, the offense scuffled, and the season went off the rails. Surely the 2025 defense isn't unworkable now with Rojas out...right? Much like Jan Johnson before him, Dom DeLuca tries hard, but he's wildly overmatched athletically and completely abandoned his zone responsibilities on multiple occasions today, creating massive running lanes for Iamaleava. There must be another option, not like it matters at this point.

Obviously it's unfair to put everything on Knowles, even with how poorly his defense has performed lately. There's plenty of blame for Kotelnick's offense. It starts with the coach. Why...in the world...is Nick Singleton...playing so much over Kaytron Allen? Singleton was playing great at the end of the 2024 season. Allen has wildly outplayed his backfield buddy this year. Singleton continues to get the majority of the touches. It's just bizarre.

Beyond the RBs, Drew Allar continues to to underwhelm. Some of that is unfair to Allar; Kotelnicki wants Allar to be Beau Pribula or Trace McSorley and he isn't. Allar's numbers look fine enough today at the end of the game. But much like last week against the Ducks, Allar and his offense struggled early. After a 75-yard touchdown drive, the offense sputtered to a three-and-punt and followed with a turnover on downs, giving the ball back to UCLA to push the halftime lead to 20. I won't blame Allar for the next drive...

That "honor" goes to Luke Reynolds. There was always going to be a drop off from Tyler Warren to whoever took over his job; that was inevitable. Unfortunately, the guy tasked with the primary responsibility there, Reynolds has been terrible. Reynolds has been missing blocks all over the place to kill running plays and has dropped a few catchable throws through five games. But he hit a new low point, handing the ball back to the Bruins on the second snap of the second half with a fumble, too.

So where does Penn State go from here?

Honestly, bowl eligibility is now the concern for me. Oh boy. The energy form the Penn State sideline was non-existent throughout the game, even as the season slipped away. Both coordinators seem intent on pretending that objective reality isn't the case. Knowles wants to play with a six-man box even though his DL can't generate pressure and his LBs now lack athleticism to operate with all of the space they need to cover. Kotelnicki pretends that his QB is mobile, and while Allar tries to run when necessary, it isn't pretty or explosive.

I thought Penn State needed to beat Oregon last week, even though I didn't think they'd win. Everything came together on paper in advance of that game. Oregon had to travel across the country. Penn State got a night Whiteout. Penn State featured their best roster in many years. And yet, Nittany still found a way to lose.

I figured that they'd suffer their normal post-1st-loss hangover this week. Franklin has done that many times, but (i) UCLA is terrible, (ii) this Penn State team was supposed to be better, and (iii) in the 12-team Playoff era, everything was still in front of this squad. And it didn't matter. The hangover lasted into the 2nd half.

Is there a world where Penn State runs the table and heads into the Playoff at 10-2? I mean, yeah, sure, I guess. But it's much more likely that we live in a world where this Penn State team completely unravels and misses a bowl game than it is that we live in that 10-2 world.

Today is a gut punch on the level of the 2017 Michigan State loss that killed Nittany's path to the Playoff ...but 2017 MSU was very good! 2025 UCLA is not. Losing to a bad team has the chance to torpedo this season, spilling over into recruiting losses. Honestly, it's hard to imagine that not being the case at this point.

Duck Hunting: Previewing the Penn State-Oregon Whiteout

Welcome to the Whiteout!

In two days, the Penn State Nittany Lions will welcome the Oregon Ducks to Beaver Stadium following Oregon's 2,400-mile cross-country trip to play a regular season college football game. Now there's a lot to unpack from that sentence, but we're going to focus our efforts on the football players and coaching staffs taking part in the game.

We'll start with the Ducks. They're awesome. This is no surprise to anybody that follows college football at all. While they're sort of starting a first-timer at QB, there are two massive caveats to this. First, Dante Moore did make five starts at UCLA in 2023, so even though he only attempted eight passes with the Ducks in 2024, he threw 219 balls for the Bruins in 2023. Second, Moore is a superstar prospect. He trailed only Arch Manning and Alabama DE Keon Keeley in the On3 composite recruiting rankings, coming in just ahead of WR Zachariah Branch and S Caleb Downs. Moore has size, pedigree, experience, a huge arm, and loads of production thus far in 2025. He moves around in the pocket with comfort and ease. He's been extremely productive against overmatched competition this year, completing 74.7% of his throws and averaging 10.1 yards per attempt. Sure, it's crummy competition, but that's what you're supposed to do against bad teams.

Although Moore doesn't have WR Evan Stewart available to him this year, there's still more than enough talent at the skill position spots. WR Dakorien Moore, the #1 WR in the 2025 class, is already a star. TE Kenyon Sadiq is a star, too. There's more than enough depth behind those two to field an elite pass-catching unit. The offensive line lost OTs Josh Conerly Jr. and Ajani Cornelius to the NFL, but three new transfer starters mean that the OL is strong and deep.

The defense lacks the same big-name star power as the offense, but there's incredible depth with big-time collegiate production. LB Bryce Boettcher is a tackling machine, but the three names of most renown here are a pair of DBs and an edge. The DBs, CB Brandon Finney and S Dillon Thieneman, should be familiar to Penn State fans. Finney was an elite recruit from McDonogh in Baltimore, long thought to be a Penn State lean before surprisingly locking in with the Ducks and immediately forcing his way onto the field as a true freshman, amassing 101 snaps over his first four college games. Thieneman has had a solid start to 2024, but he is best known for his starring role at Purdue over the two prior seasons. The scary edge, Matayo Uiagalelei, was largely held in check by the Nittany OL in last year's Big Ten Championship Game, but he looks noticeably improved. The Oregon defense has allowed just 37 points in four games thus far in 2025.

Add it all up and we have the nation's #1 team by SP+. Oregon boasts the nation's #2 offense and #5 defense per Bill Connelly's metric. This is a confident, loaded team -- coach Dan Lanning has signed a top-seven recruiting class in three consecutive cycles with another on the way. Lanning's squad has just two losses in their last 26 games. *Gulp*

But Penn State is no slouch, at least not on paper.

Entering the 2025 season, the Penn State rushing offense looked awesome! And, so far, they've been...fine. The offensive line is incredibly talented with a top-notch two deep. They struggled a bit against Nevada in the opener, but the rushing attack picked up in a big way against FIU and Villanova. The OT situation remains remarkable. LT Drew Shelton is in his second year as a full-time starter, but he has over 1,900 career snaps at LT. RT Nolan Rucci underwhelmed at Wisconsin before transferring and struggled to make an impact early at Penn State, but by the end of 2024, he was the team's best offensive lineman. RG Anthony Donkah was starring at RT before suffering an injury last year, but he's too good to back up Rucci, so he's now playing the role of brick wall on the interior. C Nick Dawkins has nearly 1,400 collegiate snaps. And LG Vega Ioane, in his third year as a starter, has been consistently the best member of the group.

Seniors Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton have looked quite different thus far in 2025 -- Allen looks very impressive whereas Singleton looks a bit sluggish -- there's elite talent here. The TE room is led by emerging star Luke Reynolds. Senior Khalil Dinkins has disappointed a bit, but Andrew Rappleyea is back from injury, so the room remains strong. 

Of course, you cannot discuss the Penn State offense without discussing the wide receivers. They've been good enough. USC transfer Kyron Hudson has flashed some top-end skills. Troy transfer Devonte Ross was injured in camp and appears less explosive than expected. And Syracuse transfer Trebor Pena looks like the reliable, solid citizen he was expected to be. There's no real star power here, but there is competence...so far. This trio wasn't brought in to face Nevada, FIU, or Villanova.

The offense has been extremely underwhelming thus far. There's been a lot of discussion that the PSU offense has been "working on things" in the first few weeks of the season. That's fine...but the things that they're working on aren't working. And they're primarily working on having Drew Allar push the ball down the field.

I remain extremely confident in the Penn State rushing attack to gobble up yards against the Oregon defense. But I have no confidence at this point that Allar will make plays that help win the game.

History makes it hard to be too hopeful. Allar hasn't lacked for opportunity against quality competition. In his career, he has started 10 games against AP Poll-ranked opponents. The results have been underwhelming, to put it mildly.

Those results aren't pretty. But they hide just how ugly Allar's production has been against teams with similar talent levels. Back in the summer, I took a deep dive on the "Blue Chip Ratio" of Penn State's rosters under James Franklin and looked at Franklin's results against BCR peers; the results are ugly. Updating the chart above, the BCR peers would cause us to remove Iowa, Illinois, SMU, and Boise State as teams where Penn State's roster absolutely dwarfed the talent of the opposition.

Hey, the yards per game increased -- that's good! Unfortunately, everything else looks decidedly worse with his putrid completion percentage dipping below 50%, his TD/game rate dropping, and his INT/game increasing.

I don't need to explain to anyone whether the 2025 Oregon roster aligns them with Iowa, Illinois, SMU, and Boise State...or Ohio State, Michigan, Mississippi, Notre Dame, and 2024 Oregon. 2025 Oregon is absurdly talented. Allar will need to find a way to produce a career-best game against the Ducks, right?

Maybe...but maybe not.

It's plenty conceivable that Penn State has two completely distinct paths to victory. One of them involves a shootout akin to last year's matchup in Indianapolis but with Oregon producing less with Moore at the helm than they did when Dillon Gabriel was in charge. Even though that shootout featured 82 points, the Penn State WRs totaled just six grabs for 81 yards. The rushing attack absolutely gashed the Ducks, gobbling up 297 yards on just 34 attempts. If the Penn State offense moves the ball like that on the ground again, they could outscore a potent Ducks attack. After all, Penn State features SP+'s 9th ranked offense in spite of Allar's struggles.

But it'll probably be easier to just slow Oregon down.

The Penn State defense remains loaded in ways both unexpected and surprising. The secondary has been wonderful. No surprise there. Star CB AJ Harris hasn't made an impact primarily because nobody has thrown the ball in his general direction. There's still star power in there. Across from him and in the slot, Zion Tracy, Elliot Washington, and Audavion Collins have all produced in returning roles, but the group has gotten a big boost from newcomers Jahmir Joseph and especially Daryus Dixson; I suspect we won't see any of Joseph or Dixson on Saturday, but they may have forced their way into roles. The safety rotation will likely tighten, too, but led by Zakee Wheatley and King Mack, that's OK. I'll be interested to see how much Antoine Belgrave-Shorter plays after winning a starting job in camp, then scuffling a bit.

The linebacker group lacks depth, but thankfully, both Tony Rojas and North Carolina transfer Amare Campbell have starred thus far. Dom DeLuca would be a terrible mismatch against Sadiq and neither Keon Wylie or Anthony Speca has produced enough to force their way into big reps on Saturday. If Rojas or Campbell goes down, it could be a big problem for the Nittany Lions. But so far, so good.

The DTs have struggled, largely because Zane Durant hasn't made an impact yet. Alonzo Ford has played plenty coming back from injury, Owen Wafle has contributed, and Xavier Gilliam has shown the promise Penn State saw in camp. I'm most interested to see whether Texas A&M transfer Enai White gets run in an obvious pass rush situation this week. Regardless, Durant will determine whether this group thrives or struggles on Saturday.

Or maybe the DEs will dictate the game. After spending 2024 largely in Abdul Carter's shadow, massive DE Dani Dennis-Sutton has played at an All-American level thus far in 2025. He's playing the role of game-wrecker in the PSU defense. The spot across from him appeared problematic in August, but so far, so good for two unexpected reasons. First, super senior Zuriah Fisher has stayed healthy enough to contribute. He's not playing a lot, but if he manages even 30 snaps on Saturday, the group will get a huge boost. But now we get to Chaz Coleman. Coleman was a huge scouting win as an Ohio recruit who committed to PSU just before Ohio State offered him a scholarship. He stayed with his commitment and finds himself playing starter-level reps as a true freshman. Like Finney at Oregon, Coleman looks the part and has been incredibly impressive. In previewing the season, I lamented the loss of Max Granville to injury in the offseason, hoping that either Jaylen Harvey or Mylachi Williams would step up. Neither has, but Coleman has more than made up for that.

Could the Penn State defense stifle the Oregon offense? Sure! But "stifle" is a relative term. I think that holding Oregon to anything less than 27 points would be a huge win. Something will likely have to give in a matchup of the #2 offense and the #4 defense.

I mentioned Lanning above. I can't finish this piece without addressing James Franklin's performance against elite opposition. Personally, I don't think it's fair to tag Franklin with results from the 2014 and 2015 seasons. He was playing with somebody else's players and subject to somebody else's sanctions. So, starting in 2016 seems fair...but the results against top-10 opponents are still putrid. First, the wins:

• 2016: 24-21 v. #2 Ohio State
• 2016: 38-31 v. #6 Wisconsin
• 2022: 35-21 v. #8 Utah
• 2024: 38-10 v. #10 SMU
• 2024: 31-14 v. #8 Boise State

And now, the losses:

• 2016: 10-49 @ #4 Michigan
• 2016: 49-52 @ #9 USC
• 2017: 38-39 @ #6 Ohio State
• 2018: 26-27 v. #4 Ohio State
• 2018: 7-42 @ #5 Michigan
• 2019: 17-28 @ #2 Ohio State
• 2021: 20-23 @ #3 Iowa
• 2021: 24-33 @ #5 Ohio State
• 2021: 17-21 v. #6 Michigan
• 2022: 17-41 @ #5 Michigan
• 2022: 31-44 @ #2 Ohio State
• 2023: 12-20 @ #3 Ohio State
• 2023: 15-24 v. #2 Michigan
• 2024: 13-20 v. #4 Ohio State
• 2024: 37-45 v. #1 Oregon
• 2024: 24-27 v. #3 Notre Dame

Woof. 5-16 is not good. But five wins against top-10 teams might be kinda good? Maybe. But that's not the point. It's impossible to look at these results and miss the elephant in the room: four of the five wins are against teams with considerably less roster talent than the Nittany Lions. No disrespect to Wisconsin, Utah, SMU, or Boise State -- they all had wonderful seasons in the years in question! -- but they are not talent peers. Conversely, 15 of the 16 losses came to talent-level peers with only 2021 Iowa -- the game where Taquan Roberson infamously couldn't get off a snap -- sticking out. Franklin only gets blown out by Michigan at the Big House, but he also has one win against a top-10 talent peer in the last nine-plus seasons.

The 2025 Penn State roster is loaded with seniors that came back for a championship run. Add that to the above and it's clear: Nittany is desperate. They have to win this game. The fans know it. The players know it. And, almost certainly, the Ducks know it, too.

Oregon? Not so much. This game is gravy for the Ducks. They'll make the Playoff as long as they get two wins among their four most challenging contests -- Saturday night, October 11th v. Indiana, November 22nd v. USC, and November 29th @ Washington -- as they'll be massive favorites in their other four remaining contests. They're not expected to win this cross-country trip. They have nothing to lose.

I expect to see a very tight Penn State team welcome a loose, carefree Oregon squad. Yikes.

Penn State has a superb defense. Penn State has an elite rushing offense that has played well against every opponent for years. Penn State has an emerging star TE in Luke Reynolds and enough talent at WR to be relevant.

But they also have Drew Allar and his dreadful record in big spots. And Oregon brings their star-studded roster featuring a plus QB in Moore and a TE who is already a star in Sadiq.

I do not like this matchup. Prior to the season, I figured that Penn State would be favored by about 7 but lose 20-27. All of the movement since then has been toward the Ducks. I'm very surprised that Penn State remains favored by 3.5 in this game, but I do think that Vegas is factoring in roughly a 3-point adjustment for the Whiteout as it should've been a pick 'em. Even factoring in the Whiteout, this looks like a double-digit Nittany loss to me. I think that the defense will hold up well enough. But you have to feature a plus passing offense to be a serious team in 2025.

Oregon 31

Penn State 20

Thankfully, this is college football. Players are allowed to get better; it happens every year! Players are allowed to surprise us with their performances. That also happens every year. If Drew Allar surprises (in a good way, of course) on Saturday, Penn State should win this game.

We Are!

Meet the New Bears...Same as the Old Bears?

Well, that stunk.

The NFL scheduling formula didn't do the Bears any favors. How bad is it? Here are the road games that the Bears will enjoy in 2025, coming off of a last-place finish in 2024:

1. @ Detroit (yikes!)
2. @ Las Vegas (1,500-mile flight against what should be a much more competent team)
3. @ Washington (yikes!)
4. @ Baltimore (YIKES!)
5. @ Cincinnati (tough)
6. @ Minnesota (yikes!)
7. @ Philadelphia (YIKES!)
8. @ Green Bay (YIKES!)
9. @ San Francisco (who knows?)

The Bears will struggle to win any of those games. It's basically impossible to envision these Bears having a chance against Detroit, Washington, Baltimore, Minnesota, Philadelphia, or Green Bay, so their peak is probably 2-7 in road games. That means they need to go 7-1 or better at home to have a chance at a winning season.

This wasn't going to be the easiest game on the home slate, but it was probably the fourth or fifth easiest game on the schedule as a whole. The Bears win expectancy peaked at 94.2% late in the third quarter. And they needed a late score to trim a multi-score deficit down to a one-score hole.

Ugh.

To have a realistic chance at playing meaningful football in January, the Bears probably have to start 4-2 or 5-1. That was a tall task before this disaster; now it's practically impossible.

As I attempt to process this, I'm struck by the following downsides:

1. Pre-Snap Penalties and Sloppiness. This wasn't some minor issue. The Bears had four false starts in the first half alone. On an early run to the left side, multiple teammates were explaining the play to Colston Loveland at the snap, who ran a pass route on a running play where his man made a TFL. The Bears burned two first half timeouts to avoid delay of game penalties. So sloppy.
2. Jonah Jackson was Dreadful. Jackson reminded me of Lucas Patrick, looking overmatched on every snap. I understood that with Patrick given his relative size limitations. With Jackson, it appears that he is bad. It seemed that the vast majority of the pressure in Caleb Williams' face came in the A gap between new center Drew Dalman, who looked alright, and Jackson, who looked terrible.
3. GM Ryan Poles Pretended that Cairo Santos Has an NFL Leg; Ben Johnson Pretended, too. I don't get it. I just don't get it. Santos is accurate on short and medium kicks, which is great. But Santos doesn't have an NFL leg. You can't just pretend that he does. The missed 50-yard field goal wasn't a surprise to anyone that has watched Santos. But Johnson deciding to have Santos kick the final kickoff deep was the nail in the coffin. Santos cannot kick the ball through the endzone. Pretending that he could cost the Bears the two-minute warning and 40 precious seconds. I don't blame Santos; he has the leg that he has. But I do blame Poles for keeping an inadequate leg and Johnson for coaching like he has a kicker that he simply doesn't have. Johnson said "the intent was for the ball to go out of the endzone." That's pretending.
4. Fake Aggressiveness. This was my least favorite part of the Matt Nagy experience. "Be You." Spare me. Nagy was aggressive...except when he was extremely cautious. Similarly, Johnson elected to go for it on 4th and 3 at the MIN 24; the play was there but Williams missed an open D.J. Moore. Bummer. But later, at the end of the first half, the Bears were facing 1st and 10 at the MIN 32 with 1:55 left...and Johnson ran the ball twice, bleeding clock before a third and long instead of pushing to reach the endzone. Kevin O'Connell took a timeout, J.J. McCarthy completed one pass, and the Bears and Vikings merely traded 3s to end the half.
5. Brutal Zebras. Just brutal. A phantom holding call on Darnell Wright turned a red zone drive into Santos' missed 50-yard field goal, flipping the game. Dayo Odeyingbo was called for roughing the passer for hitting McCarthy in the head...when he didn't hit McCarthy in the head. Odeyingbo also got called for illegal use of hands to the face of Vikings RT Brian O'Neill...when he didn't put his hands on O'Neill's face. Tyrique Stevenson got called for pass interference...because Jalen Nailor fell down. Stevenson certainly could've been called for illegal contact for early grabbing, but that wasn't the call and the call was bad.
6. Terrible Running Game. D'Andre Swift had some nice carries. I liked what he brought, on the whole. Kyle Monongai made a nice catch. But the running lanes for Jordan Mason never materialized for Swift. When the offensive line doesn't create space, the running game will stink. Football is simple that way. Williams ended the game as the team's leading rusher.
7. Inexplicable GM Extensions. I don't blame Ryan Poles for taking an extension from the McCaskey family. I do blame the McCaskey family for giving Poles a multi-year extension when his teams have always stunk. This is just like the Cubs extending GM Jed Hoyer with a losing record and no playoff appearances.
8. Missing Draft Picks. 5th rounder CB Zah Frazier has something going on off the field, so he wasn't expected to contribute in this game. 2nd rounder Ozzy Trapilo plays OT, and while its eyebrow-raising that undrafted 2024 rookie Theo Benedet was the 6th OL, Trapilo can be forgiven. 2nd rounder WR Luther Burden got one touch on offense on a blown-up screen pass. 1st rounder TE Colston Loveland had two touches on checkdowns. 2nd rounder DT Shemar Turner was inactive. This team doesn't have so many studs that these players shouldn't be pushing for roles.

It wasn't all bad. There were a few bright spots that I'll be clinging to as the Bears prepare to get walloped in Detroit on a short week.

1. The Returners. Devin Duvernay brought some juice, though fair catching the final punt was inexplicable. Burden's return at the end of the first half showed off his athleticism.
2. Caleb Williams Making Plays with his Feet. Surely Ben Johnson wants Williams to stand in the pocket and deliver the ball. Unfortunately, he couldn't with the way the OL played tonight. So, kudos to Williams for extending plays to make things happen for a team in desperate need of help.
3. The OTs. RT Wright and LT Braxton Jones held up very well against a pair to top DEs. Nice!
4. The Non-Jonah Jackson Interior Offensive Line. Every time I watched Joe Thuney, he was mesmerizing. He was helping out, moving quickly, and I never once saw him get beat. Drew Dalman's snaps were clean and the only times I saw him get beat were when he was helping out Jackson, save for one missed stunt in the second quarter.
5. Dayo Odeyingbo and Gervon Dexter. Odeyingbo was a menace, making a few highlight plays against the run and a couple of nice pass rushes. Dexter put some pressure on the Minnesota iOL, though never fully collapsed it.
6. Safeties. Kevin Byard had a solid game. Jaquan Brisker was a force and it appeared that McCarthy wanted nothing to do with Brisker. And Jonathan Owens made a stellar play to shut down a Minnesota two-point conversion attempt.
7. Nahshon Wright. Wright had a few plays where it appeared that he didn't know what he was doing. That's bad. He got beat by Justin Jefferson a few times. That's understandable. But Wright undercut a terrible throw from McCarthy for a 74-yard pick-six, making the single best play of the night for the Bears. That's worth calling out.
8. Jaquan Brisker. He appeared to get through the game healthy and is awesome when he's on the field.
9. Remembering 2024. In last year's opener, the Bears played terribly for the first three quarters against Tennessee, then rallied for a stirring comeback en route to a 4-2 start...followed immediately by a 10-game losing streak. Football seasons are long. Devastating losses only count as one loss. Blowout losses only count as one loss. There are lots of games left.

The Bears have a seven-game stretch from late-October through early-December that consists of the following:

• @ Baltimore
• @ Cincinnati
• v. New York Giants
• @ Minnesota
• v. Pittsburgh
• @ Philadelphia
• @ Green Bay

It's brutal. The schedule is unforgiving which requires capitalizing on opportunities now. The Bears whiffed by playing sloppy football and blowing a game in which they had a 94.2% win expectancy with 16 minutes to go so badly that they needed a late score to avoid a multi-score home loss.

Or, put much more simply:

Meet the new Bears: same as the old Bears, until proven otherwise.