So, before next week starts, here's my first real look to the 2026 Bears.
Internal Decisions
Thankfully, the 2026 Bears have no questions at the top: Ben Johnson will be the head coach. Nice! It's plausible that Declan Doyle and/or Dennis Allen could leave for promotions elsewhere, but for now, we'll assume that the coaching staff remains the same.
Turning to the roster, the Bears find themselves in a salary cap crunch for the first time in a long time. Spotrac shows the roster at $300.9M of spending against an adjusted cap of $309.4M, but that's before (i) a practice squad, (ii) signing the Draft class, and (iii) filling out the remaining unfilled roster spots with minimum-salary players. Functionally, the Bears are $14.4M over the 2026 cap before cutting players and/or restructuring deals; this also doesn't leave the roughly $10M of cap space that teams like to leave for in-season roster churn. Additionally, there's no Nate Davis or Gerald Everett on this roster, a floundering player with a big cap number but minimal dead cap left behind when cut.
Instead, there are a few players who offer meaningful cap savings if they are jettisoned. Namely:
- LB Tremaine Edmunds: $17.4M cap number, $2.4M dead cap
- TE Cole Kmet: $11.6M cap number, $3.2M dead cap
- RB D'Andre Swift: $8.8M cap number, $1.3M dead cap
Edmunds has had a solid season, but nothing close to a $15M net season given the market value for LBs. He figures to be cut, creating an opening next to TJ Edwards. Swift is more likely to receive an extension than be cut at this point after a very impressive season. Kmet is tricky. He's underwhelming, but an $8.4M net cap number isn't outrageous and the TE market is sparse. I wonder if Kmet might get a modest extension that lowers his cap number. TE is simply too important to the Ben Johnson offense to get thin at that spot. Unfortunately, cap needs dictate Kmet moving on. But unlike Edmunds, Kmet should have market value on a one-year, $10M deal which is what an acquiring team would obtain. We'll say Kmet gets shipped out for a 5th-round pick.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Bears feature two players from the 2023 Draft class likely to earn Proven Performance Escalator pay bumps in DT Gervon Dexter and CB Tyrique Stevenson. Dexter has underwhelmed this year after looking like an ascending player, but he's going to stick around in a starting capacity, especially given his remaining upside as a pass rusher. Stevenson has enjoyed a nice bounce-back season after a disastrous 2024, buried in the shadow of a breakout season by Nahshon Wright. Both Dexter and Stevenson will see their base salaries jump from $1.6M to $3.5M next year, adding $3.8M against the cap.
Noah Sewell was likely headed for a release, but his Achilles injury complicates the expected cap savings if he remains unable to play in 2026. For now, we'll assume that he stays on the roster even if he's only available to play on the back half of the schedule.
For now, let's assume minimal movement:
- Edmunds cut ($15M net cap savings, $2.4M dead cap)
- Swift stays on his current deal (no cap change)
- Kmet is traded for a 5th-round pick
- Dexter and Stevenson stay, receiving their PPEs ($3.8M net cap addition)
- RB Roschon Johnson cut ($1.1M net cap savings, $0.2M dead cap)
- ERFA OT Theo Benedet and RFA DE Daniel Hardy both return on minimum deals
- Yes, I know that Hardy doesn't actually need to come back on a minimum deal, but it seems awfully likely.
All we've done is generate $11.2M in cap space while creating a hole at WLB.
Free Agency
Last year, the approach in free agency was clear: add talent in the interior offensive line and along the defensive line. Enter Drew Dalman, Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Dayo Odeyingbo, and Grady Jarrett before the Draft weekend additions of Ozzy Trapilo, Shemar Turner, and Luke Newman. The additions on the offensive line were dramatically more impactful than the defensive additions. So it goes.
This year, the goals are clear but the ability to plug them is tough. To wit:
- Safeties matter. Both Kevin Byard and Jaquan Brisker are free agents. So are Jonathan Owens, Elijah Hicks, and Jaylon Jones. That's...all of them. Gotta get some safeties.
- Who is bringing the pass rush juice? Top-level DEs are very expensive and the Bears lack the cap space to make a play for Trey Hendrickson or another free agent without engaging in the type of cap shenanigans that they have otherwise avoided.
- Who replaces Edmunds at LB? I expect a modest free agent signing.
- Is Zah Frazier going to play football again? And did Terell Smith's patellar heal appropriately? If not, and assuming that Nahshon Wright proves way too expensive to bring back, the Bears need a bit more depth at CB.
- Is Kiran Amegadjie still a developmental OL prospect? If so, great! He becomes the top backup at G, replacing Ryan Bates. If not, the Bears need to find another developmental OL.
Free agency isn't going to offer a ton of solutions. But it can help heading into the Draft. The biggest needs are at LB, TE, and S. Spotrac projects personal favorite S Jaquan Brisker to receive a three-year, $34.1M deal. Brisker isn't a star, but he's the heart and soul of the Bears defense. While I don't like the idea of engaging in cap shenanigans, I'd be very tempted to find a way to sign Brisker if the Bears can keep his Y1 cap hit in the $7M neighborhood.
- Bears sign TE Noah Fant to a one-year, $3M deal
- Fant is no star. But he's a low-end starting-caliber TE who can thrive in the TE2 or TE3 slot for the Bears and parlay a year in Ben Johnson's offense into a heftier payday next offseason.
- Bears extend C Drew Dalman via a two-year, $30M extension
- The value of this deal shows itself below. Dalman proved to be an idyllic fit in Johnson's offense and he'll be just 28 next year. After years of disastrous play at the pivot, Dalman has been a godsend for Bears fans. Dalman carries a $14M cap hit, but this extension reworks his deal by reducing his 2026 base salary from $11M to $2M with his new deal including a $10M signing bonus to give him $1M in additional 2026 money, guarantees in 2027, and more job security going forward. It also frees up $6.5M of 2026 cap space, which is great because...
- Bears sign S Jaquan Brisker to a three-year, $34.1M deal
- Here we go. Setting aside workout/roster bonuses, we'll follow the Josh Metellus deal and say that Brisker gets a $12M signing bonus on a deal that includes a $3M base salary in 2026. That keeps Brisker's 2026 cap hit right at $7M. That'll play. He'd get something like $25M guaranteed with this structure.
- If we figure that his base salaries/roster bonuses in 2027 and 2028 need to account for $19M, we'll give him $9M in 2027 and $10M in 2028, yielding cap numbers in those seasons of $13M and $14M respectively. Not ideal but not unworkable.
- Brisker is a risky extension candidate given his history of concussions, but he's a key leader on defense. Losing both Brisker and Byard would be painful.
- Bears sign LB D'Marco Jackson to a one-year, $2M deal
- Jackson has played well in limited action this year. He has also played his way into a core special teams role. Can the Bears afford to carry Amen Ogbongbemiga and Jackson? I think so, especially as a hedge against Ruben Hyppolite being unplayable at LB.
If you're underwhelmed by this free agency period, understood -- me too! Such is life up at the cap line.
Draft
Good teams make their moves at the Draft. Assuming the free agency period above, the Bears enter the Draft with a few absolutely massive needs, as follows:
- DE
- While Sweat, Odeyingbo, and Booker figure to eat most of the reps, the Bears need an infusion of talent, especially given the likelihood that Sweat and Odeyingbo aren't here in 2027.
- DT
- The only DTs on the roster would be Jarrett, Dexter, and Shemar Turner as he returns from a torn ACL.
- TE2/TE3
- S
Entering the Draft, all of the starting spots would be filled, at least nominally, except for the S job next to Brisker. So here goes:
Bears trade TE Cole Kmet to New York Jets for #139
Technically a 4th, but it's the last pick of the compensatory selections and allows the Jets to bring in a big target for their new QB.
#29: Bears draft Ohio State DT Kayden McDonald
No way McDonald makes it this far, right? Well, he has basically the same athletic profile as Tyleik Williams, another Ohio State DT who made it to #28 last year. McDonald would be an ideal fit for this roster. I gave heavy consideration to Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq and Utah OT Caleb Lomu here, too. Both represent excellent value. The DE options were less compelling.
Bears trade #61 to Kansas City for #73, #129, and a 2027 4th
USC S Kamari Ramsey would've been the pick here, but he went off the board at #60. So, this trade brings in some extra picks despite only moderate value.
#73: Bears draft Toledo S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
I'm in deep on EMW. Deep. He's go the look of a cornerstone defender with the springiness and attitude to make big plays. Putting him next to Brisker is a great look at the back of the secondary.
#93: Bears draft Penn State S Zakee Wheatley
OK, this was really tough. I settled on Wheatley for four reasons. First, Wheatley is a turnover machine. Second, the safety depth chart is still scary until he joins the party. Third, the relative value of my other choice -- Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez -- isn't quite as high as another safety. And fourth, Dennis Allen started playing some three-safety looks. I would've preferred DE Dani Dennis-Sutton in this spot, but he didn't make it that far.
#124: Cincinnati TE Joe Royer
I took another big risk here, delaying the DE pick yet again. But ensuring that I got Royer in the building was worth it. Ben Johnson is going to have fun with Royer, a former Ohio State TE who shined as a Bearcat.
#129: Ohio State DE Kenyatta Jackson
Unfortunately, my risk at #124 hurt as Notre Dame DE Boubacar Traore came off the board at #125. Of course Philly nabbed my DE. Ugh. That yields an overdraft in this spot. Jackson looks like he'll be able to step in a run defender, but he lacks the explosiveness of an exciting pass rusher. Bummer. He does have the kind of frame that Dennis Allen wants.
#139: Louisville DE Clev Lubin
Lubin is a really interesting, riskier pick. It would be better for this roster to take a LB, RB, or even WR. But no. It's Lubin. Lubin is basically the opposite profile to Jackson. Jackson was a top-50 recruit from football factory Chaminade-Madonna in Florida who spent four years at Ohio State. Lubin, on the other hand, went to Army, then Iowa Western, then Coastal Carolina, and then finally Louisville. At both Coastal Carolina and Louisville, Lubin used his electric first step to cause havoc as a pass rusher. At 6'3", 250 lbs., he lacks the size to play 4-3 DE in anything other than an obvious passing situation. But at #139, it's worth buying his upside as a pass rusher.
#168: Houston TE Tanner Koziol
The success of the WR room opened up this option and caused me to reallocate a roster spot from a 6th WR to a 4th TE. Koziol is a polished receiver and a subpar blocker. If he develops as a blocker, great! If not, he's a nice addition as a receiving threat here.
#207: TCU WR Eric McAlister
McAlister comes with some off-field baggage, but he's got the body of an NFL WR and enjoyed a massive season this year for the Horned Frogs (72/1,190/10).
#242: Oregon RB Noah Whittington
This is guaranteed to work out as well as Monangai, right?
#248: Iowa S Xavier Nwankpa
I still love Nwankpa, even though he clearly lacks the speed to be a serious NFL safety.
QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT
RB (3): D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, Noah Whittington
TE (4): Colston Loveland, Noah Fant, Joe Royer, Tanner Koziol
WR (5): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Jahdae Walker, Eric McAlister
OT (4): Darnell Wright, Ozzy Trapilo, Theo Benedet, FREE AGENT
OG (3): Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Kiran Amegadjie
C (2): Drew Dalman, Luke Newman
DE (6): Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo, Austin Booker, Daniel Hardy, Kenyatta Jackson, Clev Lubin
DT (4): Grady Jarrett, Gervon Dexter, Shemar Turner, Kayden McDonald
ILB (2): T.J. Edwards, D'Marco Jackson
OLB (3): Amen Ogbongbemiga, Noah Sewell, Ruben Hyppolite
CB (6): Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Tyrique Stevenson, Josh Blackwell, Terell Smith, Zah Frazier
S (5): Jaquan Brisker, Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Zakee Wheatley, Xavier Nwankpa, FREE AGENT
SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT
Proof from PFF below:
Not bad. But realistically, most of the improvement for this team will need to come from within. No pressure, Caleb!
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