As I'm writing this, it remains largely a toss-up as to whether Sanchez will accept the five-year, $75M offer from the Cubs that it was reported he had already accepted a couple of hours ago. Poor reporting by Bog Nightengale and Jim Bowden gave Cubs fans a premature feeling of hope. But as it appears as though the bidding for Sanchez's services is down to the Cubs and Detroit Tigers, I think it's appropriate to take a look at what a Sanchez signing would mean for the franchise. I recognize that this breaks form with my methodical position-by-position tour of the organization; for that, I hope you will forgive me.
The History
Sanchez was signed by the Boston Red Sox out of Venezuela in 2001. In 2002 he injured his elbow and subsequent Tommy John surgery forced him to miss the entire 2003 season. He responded in a big way, bursting onto the prospect scene in 2004. By the end of the year, he trailed only Hanley Ramirez, Brandon Moss, Jonathan Papelbon, and Jon Lester on Boston's top prospect lists. After a similarly excellent 2005 campaign in the minor leagues, Sanchez co-headlined the trade with the Florida Marlins that sent Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to Boston.
Sanchez finally reached the major leagues in mid-2006. He punctuated his strong rookie season with a September no-hitter. Unfortunately, his 2007 year ended in June with surgery to repair a torn labrum. He returned on deadline day in 2008, struggling with his command the rest of the way (4.7 BB/9) but racking up plenty of strikeouts (8.7 K/9). He struggled through another half-season in 2009 with his command still a problem.
Then 2010 began. Sanchez turned in the finest season of his career, cutting his BB/9 from 4.81 in 2009 all the way down to 3.23 BB/9. He maintained a solid strikeout rate (7.25 K/9) and rode an incredibly lucky lack of home runs allowed to a career-best 4.4 WAR, a tally that tied him for 19th in all of baseball.
Sanchez proved 2010 was no fluke by turning in a strong encore in 2011. He further cut down on his walks (2.93 BB/9) while enjoying a strong uptick in strikeouts (9.26 K/9). A return to his normal home run rate led to a 3.8 WAR season, 28th in MLB. For comparison, the five pitchers ranked immediately ahead of him were Tim Hudson, Edwin Jackson, Zack Greinke, Tim Lincecum, and Josh Beckett.
In a contract year, Sanchez submitted yet another good season. His strikeout rate returned to be more in line with his career rate (7.68 K/9 in 2012) while he further sliced his walk rate (2.21 BB/9). With another 3.8 WAR, Sanchez tied for 20th in baseball with Matt Harrison, teammate Josh Johnson, and Matt Cain.
Just before the trade deadline, he was part of another blockbuster deal. The Marlins dealt Sanchez and second baseman Omar Infante to the Detroit Tigers for a competitive balance draft pick and a trio of minor league players headlined by starting pitcher Jacob Turner, Detroit's top prospect and baseball's 15th best overall prospect. Sanchez struggled to adjust in his first four starts. But after allowing five runs in five innings in Minneapolis in mid-August, Sanchez was electric over his final eight outings, throwing 54.1 innings, allowing 46 hits with just seven walks and 44 strikeouts as the Tigers rolled toward the post-season. In the playoffs, Sanchez continued his strong pitching, going 20.1 innings over three starts, allowing 14 hits with six walks and striking out 18.
To synthesize his past past and to show where he is right now, Sanchez dealt with a pair of injuries (elbow, shoulder) early on in his major league career. But over the last three seasons, he has been durable and incredibly steady. His ERA and FIP have been remarkably consistent, as has his strikeout rate save for the surprising upswing in 2011. His walk rate has trended steadily downward.
2010: 32 starts, 195 IP, 3.55 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 7.25 K/9, 3.23 BB/9
2011: 32 starts, 196.1 IP, 3.67 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 9.26 K/9, 2.93 BB/9
2012: 31 starts, 195.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 7.68 K/9, 2.21 BB/9
The Pitcher
Let's get something out of the way: Anibal Sanchez is not an ace. And that's okay.
Anibal Sanchez is a very, very good pitcher. He turns 29 this February and just completed his third consecutive season of at least 31 big league starts; from 2006-2009, he made an additional 49 starts bringing his total to 144 thus far. Over that time, he has harnessed his arsenal and seriously improved his command. At this stage of his career, he throws four pitches at roughly the same rates each season.
Like most pitchers, Sanchez relies on his fastball. He threw it just 47.6% of the time in 2012, the first time in his career that the total dropped below 52%. He has been throwing his fastball less and less as a major leaguer, likely a result of his improved command of his secondary offerings. The average speed - 91.8 mph - is basically average among qualified starters. During the playoffs, he routinely dialed it up to 94 and occasionally hit 95. His slider remained his main secondary pitch in 2012 at 23.2%, almost exactly his career average. It is a hard, downward breaking pitch that he throws in the 85-87 range. He also throws a curveball, although he has not thrown it more than 10% of the time since 2008. On the other hand, while he seldom used his changeup early in his career, he began to rely on the pitch rather heavily in 2009 and he now throws the pitch almost as frequently as his slider and twice as frequently as the curveball. The changeup is in the low-to-mid 80s with downward movement somewhat similar to the slider.
This video, from perhaps the most important regular season start of his career, does a nice job showcasing his arsenal (strange banner ads aside). The fastball is a rather straight delivery, but the slider and changeup both fool hitters pretty badly.
In addition to his stuff, Sanchez enjoys some success because of his delivery itself. He rotates just past 90 degrees in his windup and reaches the ball back just behind his back. However, the ball disappears from view again as it passes by his torso. His mechanics are deliberate and their fluidity seems to cause his pitches to jump on batters.
As a final note, the Venezuelan is unafraid to show his emotions while pitching, although Cubs fans need not worry about the emotional outbursts of former ace Carlos Zambrano. Overall, Sanchez appears rather levelheaded.
The Contract
As it was first reported, the deal was for five years and $75M. Obviously a lot can change between that report and the actual contract being signed, including the team with whom he agrees. In addition to the Tigers and Cubs, the Angels appear to be a natural fit given their need for starting pitching and win-now approach with the signing of Josh Hamilton to complement Albert Pujols and MVP runner up Mike Trout. Regardless, we'll work with the five year, $75M framework.
It's a good contract. It's not exactly a steal for the Cubs. It's also not a fleecing by Sanchez. It's a fair deal given the market, even if I'm surprised Sanchez didn't obtain $80M or even $85M over five years. There are two different methods I'll use to evaluate the terms: the value of a marginal win above replacement level and the market forces in baseball's free agency.
First, given player salaries in baseball, the value of a marginal win is roughly $5M. Thus, a player who produces $15M worth of wins would be a roughly 3 WAR player. Sanchez has been better than that. He has been worth $17.5M, $17.1M, and $17M over the last three seasons according to Fangraphs' dollars conversion. Given Sanchez's production thus far, the Cubs are paying slightly less than would be expected. But it's close enough to be nearly a wash.
However, Sanchez isn't simply a player producing wins: he's a free agent being signed on the open market to produce those wins. Teams obtain marginal wins from players making insanely different amounts of money. For example, Starlin Castro produced 3.3 WAR for the Cubs last year while Alfonso Soriano produced 4 WAR. Because he was in the final year of his pre-arbitration eligibility, Castro made $567K. Conversely, because he was in the sixth year of his eight year free agent deal, Soriano made $19M. Needless to say, cheap talented players are the most efficient resource in the game.
For a free agent like Sanchez (and like Soriano before him), they get the advantage of having teams compete for their services, driving up the price (this is likely happening for Sanchez as we speak). The Cubs would be paying $15M annually for Sanchez's age 29-33 seasons. This and the past couple of off-seasons only present a couple of comparable pitchers to Sanchez. Let's look at each:
Zack Greinke. Greinke signed with the free-spending Dodgers for six years, $147M ($24.5M average annual value (AAV)). Greinke is just four months older than Sanchez, so they're good comparisons by age, but not as much by reputation. Greinke's super-elite 2009 Cy Young campaign largely set the market for the player and he has been extremely durable since 2008. However, over the past three seasons, Greinke has produced 14.2 WAR compared to 12 for Sanchez. Despite Greinke's higher ceiling, the production gap will not match the pay gap.
Edwin Jackson. After signing a one year, $10M deal last off-season, Jackson struggled a bit for the Nationals, but still produced a solid year. Coming off of a three year span where he tallied 11.4 WAR, Jackson was worth 2.7 last season. His peripheral numbers remain similar to Sanchez's and it remains to be seen what type of contract the righty nets this winter. Regardless, as Jackson just finished playing for his seventh team, it's clear that something is scaring franchises away.
Mark Buehrle. Buehrle may actually be the strongest comparison on the market. After spending 12 seasons with the White Sox, Buehrle bolted for what turned out to be a one-year stay in Miami. He signed a four year, $56M ($14M AAV) deal with the Marlins. Buehrle is a different type of pitcher than Sanchez with low strikeout totals but he has also shown incredibly low walk rates and amazing durability. In the three seasons before free agency, Buehrle was worth 10.9 WAR. He signed for his age 33-36 seasons.
Brandon McCarthy is a poor comparable: he is coming off of skull surgery and has been much less consistent. Last winter, C.J. Wilson obtained a five year, $77.5M contract, but he is older than Sanchez and has only been a starting pitcher for two years.
Given the similar pitchers, $15M per year is about right for an arm like Sanchez. And give his age, Sanchez represents a safer bet than someone like Buehrle.
What It Means for the Cubs
It means (and doesn't mean) a number of things.
First, it means that Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer recognize the complete lack of pitching the in Cubs system. The 30 starts Sanchez would make wouldn't just be starts made by a good starter; they'd also be starts not made by a poor starter. 30 Sanchez starts would represent starts not made by the likes of Chris Volstad, Justin Germano, and Jason Berken. There aren't any big arms in the minor leagues coming to help in the next year or two, so help from the outside is a necessity for competing.
Second, it does not mean that the plan is any different. As I see the system, the plan is to be bad in 2013, better in 2014, and competitive in 2015 and beyond. While the offense has a combination of players who could form the core of a contender by 2015, the pitching does not. Between the tandem of Jeff Samardzija and Matt Garza and the raw arms in rookie ball, only Trey McNutt, Rob Whitenack, and Nick Struck seem even remotely capable of playing a role in the major leagues, but all three have major flaws. McNutt has stalled out with command problems in AA, Whitenack is recovering from Tommy John surgery, and Struck lacks any impact pitches although he has been a steady producer. In order to compete in 2015, the starting pitching needs to add at least two reliable arms in addition to Samardzija and Garza assuming the unlikely event that both are still Cubs in 2015. Sanchez would be one of those arms and he would still be just 31 in 2015.
Third, it speaks volumes about the 2014 free agent class. This year, there were supposed to be three big pitching prizes in free agency: Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, and Matt Cain. Both Hamels and Cain re-signed with their respective teams mid-season, leaving only Greinke to the market. In 2014, the Cubs' own Garza, Josh Johnson, Tim Lincecum, and Johan Santana make up the under-35 impact group. There are some other interesting names like Dan Haren (33), Phil Hughes (28), Colby Lewis (34), and Ricky Nolasco (31). However, beyond Garza and Johnson, the free agent market figures to offer no arms that are even the same quality as Sanchez, much less better alternatives. If the Cubs are seeking 2015 rotation pieces, this off-season is the time to do it.
Fourth, Epstein appreciates the value of adding talent via free agency. All things being equal, it's infinitely better for a team with the Cubs' financial resources to obtain talent via free agency than to do so via trade. There were some comments this morning that the Cubs could be well positioned to make a trade for Rays ace David Price next off-season. While I would celebrate David Price's arrival in Chicago, if the cost is Javier Baez, Dan Vogelbach, and Jorge Soler, what offense is going to produce runs behind Price? For some teams, the scarce resource is cash. For others, the scarce resource is talent. For the November 2012 Cubs, the scarce resource is undeniably the latter.
Fifth and finally, I think Epstein appreciates the impact of the new collective bargaining agreement on the baseball draft. Under the previous CBA, teams like the Yankees and Epstein's Red Sox would load up on old talent at the trade deadline, offer those players arbitration, then stock up on compensation draft picks that fell between the first and second rounds. This method became so pervasive that the compensation round last almost as long as a regular round. Last year, the Cubs first round pick was #6 overall; however, their second round selection came at #68! With the new CBA in place, fewer free agents require compensation picks, thus improving the overall positioning of later picks. This year, a team that signs a player requiring compensation loses their own first round pick with the team that lost the player obtaining a compensatory selection after the first round. The top ten picks are protected, but a team with a top ten pick (like the Cubs) that signs a player requiring compensation loses their second round pick. The current draft order is:
First Round: 1-29 (Pittsburgh receives #9 overall for failure to sign 2012 #8 overall Mark Appel; the Angels (Josh Hamilton) and Braves (BJ Upton) lose their picks for signing qualified free agents)
Competitive Balance Round A: 30-35 (new selections added for small market teams by lottery: KC, PIT, ARZ, BAL, CIN, MIA)
Compensation Round: 36-37 (Tampa Bay (Upton), Texas (Hamilton))
Second Round: 38-67
If the four remaining qualified free agents re-sign with their current teams, the Cubs second round pick would be #39 overall, a full 23 spots higher than the second pick of last year's second round. While Adam LaRoche may find himself back in Washington, it seems unlikely that Kyle Lohse, Rafael Soriano, or Nick Swisher return to their current teams, and completely implausible that Michael Bourn joins Upton in the Atlanta outfield. Still, the Cubs pick is likely to be in the early 40s in a spot that was formerly Epstein's favorite location: the early portion of the compensation round. With draft picks no more valuable, the cost of signing a qualified free agent has increased even for a team with a protected top ten pick. Unlike Josh Johnson next off-season, Anibal Sanchez does not cost the Cubs a draft pick. When stockpiling talent, early draft picks are essential.
Final Thought
Anibal Sanchez is a good pitcher. The Cubs need good pitchers but don't have very many of them. The Cubs do, however, have lots of money. Anibal Sanchez costs only money, not talent. Signing Anibal Sanchez is an excellent idea. I sure hope the Cubs are just a pawn in his master plan to scratch a few more million dollars out of Tigers owner Mike Illitch. Here's hoping.
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