MLB Draft: Scouting Services v. Actual Results

As many sports fans know, there are endless draft prospect rankings released each year in advance of the NBA and NFL drafts. Those drafts have been a big part of the sporting landscape for years.

However, roughly six years ago, Major League Baseball began a big push to publicize its own draft, particularly via the broadcast of the draft. The MLB draft varies from its counterparts in foundational ways, namely the length (40 rounds as opposed to two and seven, respectively), proximity of draftees to the top league, and pre-draft popularity of prospects.

One additional way in which the drafts differ: the ability of prognosticators to align pre-draft prospect rankings with actual draft results. In the NFL and NBA contexts, experts are very good at pegging roughly where picks will land. However, in the MLB arena, this ability tends to last only into the mid-to-late first round.

There are a number of reasons for this, although two jump out to me in addition to those affecting popularity discussed above.. First, the pool-based slotting system leads to some better players with high bonus demands slipping way down or even off of draft boards, leading to a significant gap between selection and talent. Second, the breadth of MLB draft prospects makes evaluating all of them nearly impossible.

With that out of the way, here is a look at the 2013 Chicago Cubs draft picks with their Baseball America pre-draft rankings, the recommended bonus value of their draft slot, and the amount for which the player has signed, if applicable.

Name, Position	BA Ranking	Draft Slot	MLB Slot Bonus	Actual Bonus
Kris Bryant, 3B	3	2	$6,708,400	N/A
Rob Zastryzny, LHP	77	41	$1,361,900	Unofficial
Jacob Hannemann, CF	209	75	$736,200	Unofficial
Tyler Skulina, RHP	74	108	$477,300	N/A
Trey Masek, RHP	48	138	$357,400	N/A
Scott Frazier, RHP	159	168	$267,600	Unofficial
David Garner, RHP	245	198	$200,400	Unofficial
Sam Wilson, LHP	N/A	228	$159,400	N/A
Charcer Burks, CF	N/A	258	$148,900	$170,000
Zack Godley, RHP	N/A	288	$139,000	Unofficial
Trevor Clifton, RHP	146	348	<$100,000	Unofficial (“3rd $”)
Michael Wagner, RHP	188	438	<$100,000	Unofficial

Note that I have not included C Jeremy Martinez, the 226th ranked prospect selected by the Cubs in the 37th round. Martinez is a 99.999%+ bet to attend USC. Also note that 12th round pick, RHP Trevor Clifton, has reportedly signed with the team for "third round money;" given the slot amounts for third round picks, that could be anywhere from $486,600 to $747,700. As stated in a prior post, any amount in excess of $100,000 for a pick in the 11th round or later will count against a team's pool, so Clifton's bonus has to be coming from some of the earlier picks, likely Hannemann and Zastryzny.

Clifton's situation is unimaginable in the NFL. It is not unheard of for a third-fifth round prospect to go undrafted; in fact, it happens every year. However, it is unheard of for an undrafted player - here, a post-10th round choice - to receive a higher bonus amount than a fourth round choice. Given the strangeness of the MLB draft, superior prospects like Clifton end up in bizarre draft locations, even if much less so than before bonus pooling.

Perhaps publications will get better over time as the MLB draft continues to increase in popularity. Perhaps the Cubs were being clever by drafting less prospects much too high so that they can be signed for lower amounts to be distributed to later-drafted prospects. Perhaps this is just the natural disconnect between rating services in baseball and front offices. Regardless, it's a fun quirk.