2014 MLB Predictions

My two-year-old daughter Lilly has a new love in this world: baseball song. Many times each day, she asks her mom "Daddy, baseball game?" to find out when we can go to our first game of the year. She knows that Daddy cheated and went to the Phoenix area for a weekend of baseball with her Baba, Grandma, and Uncle Mike, but that hasn't tempered her enthusiasm. She finishes my lines on "Go Cubs Go," "Take Me Out to the Ballgame," and "Hey Hey Holy Mackerel;" she regularly asks for "Mackerel" by name and it's basically the sweetest thing in the world.

She has only ever known truly dreadful Cubs teams in her short life. Thankfully, there's reason for hope around the corner, and she is regularly told of the brighter days in 2015 and beyond.

Unfortunately, 2014 has to happen first. With that in mind, here's a look at what I foresee happening this year with full appreciation for the fact that these predictions will be senseless by next week (just think about those poor souls who thought Oakland or Atlanta's pitching would carry them to the promised land a few weeks ago).

AL West
1. Texas Rangers (88-74). There's enough talent here for them to hang on for one more year, but the pitching behind Yu Darvish does look shaky to me.
2. Anaheim Angels (84-78). Trout, Pujols, and Hamilton. They've got to score at some point, right? I think the offense explodes as Pujols has at least one more big year in him, but the pitching keeps them from the postseason picture.
3. Seattle Mariners (79-83). The Cano signing pushes them to respectability, but they needed Taijuan Walker to grab a job from the get-go to make noise in 2014. There are lots of bats without speed or defense. Still, I'm one of the few who genuinely likes the Cano contract for Seattle while acknowledging the dead weight on the back end.
4. Oakland Athletics (77-85). The pitching injuries already hit, and every now and then even Billy Beane can't pull a rabbit out of a hat.
5. Houston Astros (63-99). They are still dreadful, but the arrival of George Springer, Jon Singleton, Dexter Fowler, and even Scott Feldman should make the club solidly better than in 2013. The pitching is still really awful.

AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers (89-73). The Tigers are lucky that their division is so weak. With an aging core and no depth on offense or in the rotation, a strong debut from Nick Castellanos is the only thing that props them up for one more year. That and the fact that there rest of the division just isn't good.
2. Cleveland Indians (87-75). I like Cleveland quite a bit. They have a pair of centerpiece bats in Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana - hopefully third base doesn't affect Santana at the plate - to go along with a deep rotation with a contract year near-ace (Justin Masterson) and a rising star (Danny Salazar). If Lonnie Chisenhall gives them anything, they could unseat Detroit.
3.Kansas City Royals (83-79). The Royals may be baseball's most interesting team to watch this year. The lineup includes Eric Hosmer's attempt to breakout, solid veterans in Billy Butler and Alex Gordon, and massive breakout candidates/wild cards in Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain. Much like Cleveland, the rotation has a contract year ace (James Shields) and young fireballer Yordano Ventura who looks like a real pitcher with an electric arm. The other rotation arms - Jason Vargas, Jeremy Guthrie, and Bruce Chen - keep the Royals afloat but also keep them from taking the next step. If Kyle Zimmer can force his way to Kansas City after the All-Star Break, they could have a run in them.
4. Chicago White Sox (72-90). The White Sox at least have some interesting pieces with Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton, Matt Davidson, and Erik Johnson all showing up to complement Chris Sale. There's still not nearly enough talent to contend however. At least this is Adam Dunn's swan song.
5. Minnesota Twins (70-92). While signing Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes should help this year, the rest of the team is very poor with replacement-level talent occupying a plethora of starting spots.

AL East
1. Tampa Bay Rays (93-69). They're going to have 162 games started by good, competent MLB starting pitchers with David Price, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, Chris Archer, Erik Bedard, Jake Odorizzi, Nate Karns, and Jeremy Hellickson all on board. Wow. The offense isn't deep, but a 2-3-4 of Ben Zobrist, Evan Longoria, and Wil Myers will score enough.
2. Boston Red Sox (91-71). I have never understood the Jackie Bradley Jr. hype, but it doesn't matter with Grady Sizemore apparently "back," at least until he's gone again. The lineup has a deep core, and there is enough pitching for a good start every time out. It's hard to pick against that bullpen.
3. New York Yankees (88-74). They made a lot of loud moves this winter, but there are still too many holes to overtake Tampa Bay and Boston. I think that they're just better than a .500 team that will pull off another big move or two in a push for October that barely proves successful. Fox is salivating at the possibility of a Yankees-Red Sox playoff game.
4. Toronto Blue Jays (75-87). The roster plays to its potential. Unfortunately, they're stuck in the AL East, so it doesn't mean much as they're only on track for something like 82 wins at the All-Star break. They could win about eight more games if they keep the team together, but GM Alex Anthopolous is fired and the new regime decides to blow it up and start over, leading to lots of late season losses.
5. Baltimore Orioles (75-87). I genuinely like what the Orioles did this offseason, but there still just isn't enough pitching. If Chris Davis returns to earth, it's going to be the first ho-hum summer in Baltimore in a few years. It's about time for the Matt Wieters trade rumors to heat up, and he is going to command a pretty penny if they decide to move him.

NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (99-63). Anything less than 95 wins should be seen as a massive disappointment. Money can't buy happiness, but it can buy a sterling pitching rotation with depth. The cost of such a rotation is mind-numbing: Clayton Kershaw ($22M - he's at $30M+ for the following six years), Zack Greinke ($24M), Hyun-Jin Ryu ($3.5M), Dan Haren ($10M), Paul Maholm ($6.5M assuming he meets likely incentives), Josh Beckett ($15.75M), and Chad Billingsley ($12M) combine to cost $93.75M in 2014, making their top seven starters the 17th highest team payroll in MLB. The offense has oodles of star power with the likes of Matt Kemp on the outside looking in.
2. San Francisco Giants (88-74). There's not much pitching depth beyond the top five, but the lineup is as strong as it has been in years with Pablo Sandoval's contract year propelling the unit.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (85-77). The loss of Patrick Corbin is the loss of a playoff spot. The very strong Arizona lineup is complemented well by a very solid, league-average pitching staff that just needs another big arm. Archie Bradley could be that arm, as could Jeff Samardzija. If the Cubs deal Samardzija in 2014, Arizona still makes more sense than anyone else as the Snakes stand so much to gain from such an acquisition.
4. Colorado Rockies (78-84). One way to be an average team is with a strong offense and weak pitching. That has been Colorado's preferred method for basically their entire existence and it will rear its head again in 2014.
5. San Diego Padres (77-85). Average pitching and a below-average lineup does not a contender make.

NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals (97-65). Duh. Even though I'm not much of a Peter Bourjos fan, the lineup is incredibly deep with above-average players at every spot. But it's always about the pitching with St. Louis, and 2014 will be yet another confirmation that piles of pitching always win in baseball. Gross.
2. Cincinnati Reds (85-77). The health red flags were everywhere with this team even before Aroldis Chapman's horrific injury. Although the pitching looks good and the offense has some really big bats, I just have a feeling that this is the year Cincinnati struggles.
3. Milwaukee Brewers (82-80). The Brewers are going to surprise a lot of folks with some really good baseball in 2014. Few offenses can match the quartet of Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, and Jean Segura given their across-the-board contributions. First base has been a massive hole since Prince Fielder left (pun intended), and it will keep them from October.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates (81-81). At least it's another year without being under .500. Gregory Polanco can't get there fast enough as Andrew McCutchen needs another star to help carry the load. The pitching looks good and the lineup looks good too, but outside of McCutchen, there's no greatness to bump them back among the contenders.
5. Chicago Cubs (58-104). It's all part of the plan. Starlin Castro will quiet at least some of his critics with his offensive showing and Javier Baez will inject some much-needed excitement into the fan base in the second half. But the offense is horrendous and the pitching is below-average. When the annual sell off ships out the likes of Nate Schierholtz, Luis Valbuena, Jason Hammel, Carlos Villanueva, and, most importantly, Jeff Samardzija, the club will seriously resemble the above-average AAA squad that they are. By 2016, fans will have a very hard time remembering the 2014 Opening Day lineup.

NL East
1. Washington Nationals (91-71). Anyone else winning this division will be a massive upset. The pitching is strong up top and throughout while the lineup doesn't have a poor bat to be found. It's a strong roster.
2. Atlanta Braves (87-75). Even at 87 wins, this number is a "what could have been?" tally as Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy will both be sorely missed. The Atlanta offense has a chance to be special, but that requires the reemergence of Dan Uggla and/or B.J. Upton. I wouldn't bet on it.
3. New York Mets (75-87). I think Curtis Granderson will have a good year and David Wright will love having him around. It's a good thing too because little else excites me about this team.
4. Philadelphia Phillies (71-91). The Phillies take a lot of heat in the blogosphere, and they are most likely the worst team in baseball that is actively trying to win. Still, with Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and A.J. Burnett, a strong season is possible if....never mind. It's still an offense of Chase Utley - assuming his knees are alright - and nothing else exciting.
5. Miami Marlins (62-100). The Miami offense outside of Giancarlo Stanton is truly dreadful. But the pitching is a different story with a true ace in Jose Fernandez, a young top-of-the-rotation arm in Henderson Alvarez, a solid mid-rotation guy in Nate Eovaldi, a few back-end options in Jacob Turner, Brad Hand, and Tom Koehler all in front of a barrage of pitching prospects headlined by Andrew Heaney. They'll pitch too well to be the league's worst team, even if the offense will be a punishment to the eyes.

Playoffs
Compared to the 2013 postseason, this would see the Yankees and Rangers enter the AL picture at the expense of the Athletics and Indians. In the NL, the Nationals and Giants would kick out the Pirates and Reds. Based on the above records, the playoff tree is as follows:

AL Wild Card: New York Yankees @ Boston. I'll take the Sawks.
NL Wild Card: Atlanta @ San Francisco. Again, I'll go with the home team.

AL Divisional: Boston @ Tampa Bay. I like the Rays in a season, but I'll take Boston in a short series.
Texas @ Detroit. Tigers in a sweep.
NL Divisional: San Francisco @ Los Angeles. The Giants win in the playoffs and there's so much pressure on the Dodgers. Too much.
Washington @ St. Louis. I'll be contrarian and take the Nats.

AL Championship: Boston @ Detroit. The Tigers may be nearing the end, but they'll make the Fall Classic anyway.
NL Championship: San Francisco @ Washington. Nats Nats Nats.

World Series: Detroit v. Washington (home field determined by silly exhibition). The Nats just have the right stuff.

Awards
AL MVP: Mike Trout. Obviously. No projection necessary.
NL MVP: Bryce Harper. It's time and if the Nats are excellent, it'll be due to Harper's excellence. Something like a .290/.385/.540 line with 30+ homers and 15+ steals should do it.
AL Cy Young: David Price. He's healthy and this maybe a contract year with a trade at some point in the next 12 months followed by an extension.
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw. The best of his generation.
AL Rookie of the Year: Masahiro Tanaka. I don't like that Tanaka will be eligible for the award as a professional veteran, but he'll win it anyway.
NL Rookie of the Year: Kolten Wong. He'll narrowly beat out Arizona shortstop Chris Owings thanks to hitting in an excellent lineup and playing the full season.


Draft Order
Based on these results, the top ten draft picks in 2015 will be:

1. Chicago Cubs (58-104)
2. Miami Marlins (62-100)
3. Houston Astros (63-99)
4. Minnesota Twins (70-92)
5. Philadelphia Phillies (71-91)
6. Chicago White Sox (72-90)
7. New York Mets (75-87)
8. Toronto Blue Jays (75-87)
9. Baltimore Orioles (75-87)
10. San Diego Padres (77-85)

Compared to the 2014 draft, only Seattle and Colorado would drop out of the top ten picks with the Padres and Orioles jumping in to take their places.