Somebody good.
That's the hope anyway, as it always is.
The new front office's shift in organizational focus from the MLB Cubs to the ranks of the minor leagues coincided well with my growing interest in prospecting a few years back. As such, I find that the kids of the system tend to be far more compelling studies than the fodder making up most of the big club.
This means that I have spent many nights trying to figure out exactly what piece should be added to the organizational puzzle with the team's top pick this June. Here are many of those thoughts.
Best Player Available v. Need
A general issue that must be addressed: should the team draft the best player available ("BPA") or draft for need? This is always an interesting hypothetical debate, but it seems especially pertinent here. The emerging consensus is that the top of the 2014 draft is arm-heavy while the Cubs system is arm-weak. This appears to be a match made in heaven.
But in baseball, even more so than in basketball, football, or hockey, the team should draft the BPA. Drafting based on need is generally a good way to limit the value of the pick. In football, there are situations in which this may make sense. Consider a team with a glaring need at safety but a stout defensive tackle rotation drafting with the top two players on their board a safety and a defensive tackle. In that limited situation, the safety makes sense, particularly if the team can plug said safety into the lineup from Day One and field a contender.
Of course, baseball doesn't work that way with draftees spending somewhere in the range of 2-5 years in the minor leagues before reaching The Show. It's BPA or bust...
Then again, as with all rules, there is an exception to the above: when the BPA has an extremely specific, limited skill set. In the case of the Cubs, I would advise against them drafting a bat-only first baseman what with Anthony Rizzo and Dan Vogelbach both controllable through 2021. With Rizzo, Bryant, and Vogelbach all projecting as playable first basemen and the limited defensive value and defensive home of bat-only, first base-only prospects, I wouldn't draft a first baseman at the top of the draft. Once you reach the third or fourth round of the MLB draft, basically every rule goes out the window and teams should be drafting the BPA even if the result is positional stacking.
The Draft Prospects
With that out of the way, here's my preference, in order, for the Cubs at #4. Only four prospects make this list, though I'll briefly address my issues with those not making the cut at the end.
1. LHP Brady Aiken
School: Cathedral Catholic HS, Cardiff by the Sea, CA
Date of Birth: 8/16/96 (draft day age: 17 years, 9 months)
Height, Weight: 6'4", 205 lbs.
Bat/Throw: L/L
Analysis: Of all the prospects I have seen on video and read about over the past four years, Aiken is my favorite. The California lefty features a mid-70s 12-6 curveball that profiles as a 60 pitch. He also throws a low-80s changeup that already has the look of an average offering and should be in the 65 range at maturity. The secondary stuff alone is enough to get him drafted in the first round.
But three factors get him to my top spot: age, mechanics and the fastball. I'll address them in reverse order. The fastball is a beast. He was consistently throwing it in the high-80s and low-90s until the beginning of the 2014 prep season when he unleashed 92-95 consistently while repeatedly hitting 97. Even if the pitch had no movement, it would be a 70 grade pitch. Given it's slight tail, I'm comfortable slapping a future 80 on it as his command develops. It is a monstrous pitch from a lefty.
Aiken's delivery is extremely smooth. He has a fluid windup with little-to-no unnecessary movement. His delivery is closer to 3/4 than a true over-the-top motion, but the fluidity of the complete motion suggests that he stands a good chance of maintaining his health as he progresses. Excellent physical conditioning has certainly helped him keep his delivery clean, something that should also help him move rather quickly through an MLB system even as a high school draftee.
His timeline brings us to the final factor. Aiken will be 17 years, 9 months old on draft day. The good folks at Fangraphs ran a piece a few years ago detailing the impact of prospect age, unsurprisingly finding that 17-year-olds who projected at a high level produced better than their 18-year-old competitors from the same drat class given that they were a full year less developed yet already possessed similar talent.
Aiken already has possibly the best stuff in this draft class, he has clean mechanics, a clean bill of health, excellent physical conditioning, and he is among the youngest players eligible for selection. If he is on the board at #4, I sure hope that the Cubs snatch him up, adding a potential 80 grade starter to the organization who looks like a 60 grade starter even if it doesn't quite come together for him as planned.
2. LHP Carlos Rodon
School: NC State
Date of Birth: 12/10/92 (draft day age: 21 years, 5 months)
Height, Weight: 6'3", 234 lbs.
Bat/Throw: L/L
Analysis: Long-presumed to be the top pick in the draft class, Rodon saw his perch waiver a bit during the early portion of the college season. More recently, his velocity returned and he showed the ability to dominate hitters that scouts had been looking to see.
Rodon's bread and butter is a low-to-mid-90s four-seam fastball that generates a bit of tail thanks to some whip in his delivery. He complements the four seamer with a two-seam heater in the low-90s with more dive and tail. Presumably the fastballs may be used in conjunction with each other to generate weak contact. Especially from a lefty, we're looking at a 70 grade fastball given his ability to change speeds and movement.
Rodon's go-to offspeed pitch is a slider/cutter hybrid that works in the high-80s, though he can add a bit of velocity or subtract a bit to get more movement. The pitch doesn't generate the two-plane movement of most great sliders, but the velocity and horizontal movement should still give him a 65 grade pitch.
His slower offspeed pitches require more projection. He does throw a mid-70s curveball and a low-80s changeup, but neither pitch projects as a plus offering, nor has either pitch functioned as a major part of his arsenal.
Rodon is generally regarded as having average command, although he could use to improve in that area. Of greater concern to met are his mechanics. Unlike Aiken, Rodon has some jerkiness to his delivery. It appears though he loses some of his lower half prior to release, causing excess stress on his shoulder to generate velocity. His windup and delivery is certainly not as fluid as Aiken's.
Nonetheless, Rodon features an elite fastball and a possibly elite slider/cutter with the ability to alter those pitches in a way that suggests advanced pitchability. Although he currently lacks an MLB-caliber third pitch, it's not hard to imagine him refining his changeup, fixing his curveball, or even learning a splitter. With a third offering in hand, Rodon could be among the top five lefty starters in baseball within a couple of years with a 65 grade profile. That's certainly worth a top-four pick, even with the mechanical concerns.
3. RHP Tyler Kolek
School: Shepherd High School, Shepherd, Texas
Date of Birth: 12/15/95 (draft day age: 18 years, 5 months)
Height, Weight: 6'5", 250 lbs.
Bat/Throw: R/R
Analysis: Power, power, and more power. Kolek's fastball velocity is a pure 80 as he works in the mid-90s and has repeatedly hit triple digits with the offering. Unfortunately, the pitch lacks movement and Kolek has a long way to go in truly commanding the offering. Even if the command lingers behind the velocity at maturity, it's still a 70 or 75 grade pitch.
It gets a lot messier after that. His most promising secondary offering is a low-80s slider that has sharp, two-plane break to it, though command is still an issue. His mid-70s curveball and low-80s slider lag significantly behind the slider, let alone the fastball.
From what I have seen, command is currently a weak spot. Kolek gets good marks for his effort and this could be a coachable area for him as a professional. Similarly, while his massive athletic frame garnered interest from Texas A&M as a defensive lineman, Kolek likely needs to lose a bit of weight as he matures. This shouldn't be a major concern and converting some baby fat to muscle will leave him with an ideal workhorse physique.
His delivery is fluid and he uses his large body well to generate velocity without appearing to put excess stress on his arm. The arm will take a beating at that velocity level regardless of mechanics, but the body and delivery should keep him healthy.
Selecting Kolek would represent a serious vote of confidence in the minor league coaching staffs. He's got a long ways to go in refining his arsenal, unlike Aiken, but if he reaches his potential he's an 80 grade ace. The stuff is good enough that he should make the majors regardless, but if his command falters, he may end up as a back-of-the-rotation starter or even at the back of the bullpen.
4. OF/C Alex Jackson
School: Rancho Bernardo High School, Escondido, CA
Date of Birth: 12/25/95 (draft day age: 18 years, 5 months)
Height, Weight: 6'2", 210 lbs.
Bat/Throw: R/R
Analysis: To me, Jackson is the one bat worthy of selection at #4. Alarmingly, he is even more "boom or bust" than Javier Baez was in 2011.
Jackson is all about the bat. He has a big, athletic physique that can likely hold plenty of additional muscle, although he is already plenty developed currently. He has a swing with a lot of moving parts, featuring a sizable load and leg kick, and I suspect that this will be easily quieted as he develops.
He is athletic enough and has a pretty enough swing to generate significant power. He projects offensively in a manner very similar to Kris Bryant as a 50-55 hitter with 70-75 grade power. Bryant's discipline and patience figure to allow the power to play in spite of only an average hit tool; I can't speak to Jackson's discipline but that's part of the nature of drafting a high school bat. The risk is higher.
The big wild card with Jackson is his defensive home. He will certainly be athletic enough to man a corner outfield spot. He doesn't project to be better than a 40 grade runner, but his big arm and generally athleticism should render him playable in the outfield. However, Jackson is currently a catcher and I suspect that whatever team drafts him will give him every opportunity to stick behind the dish. If he can be even a below average but playable defender, his bat would enable Jackson to be among the most valuable players in the game. His physique may not allow for it. But if it does, he could be a monster in the Buster Posey mold with less on base ability but more power.
The Not-Quite-Good-Enough Prospects
According to Patrick Mooney on CSN Chicago, the Cubs are considering eight prospects in addition to the four listed above. Here are the prospects and why I think the Cubs should pass:
RHP Tyler Beede, Vanderbilt: Despite Beede's connection to Cubs Minor League Pitching Coordinator Derek Johnson, Beede doesn't have the upside to warrant such a high selection. He profiles as a #4 starter to me with decent but unspectacular stuff and some command issues.
RHP Jeff Hoffman, East Carolina: The big, powerful righty could develop the arsenal to pitch atop a strong rotation, but he looks a bit out of control in his delivery for my taste. I'm concerned about his ability to command any of his arsenal, not just the secondary stuff. He'd present good value in the middle of the first round but not in the top five.
SS Jacob Gatewood, CA High School: Gatewood is similar to Jackson in that he is a big, strong, and athletic high school power hitter. But where Jackson's swing is smooth, Gatewood's is choppy and awkward with an extreme uppercut. If he needs that uppercut to generate power, he's never going to hit much.
SS Trea Turner, NC State: Easily my least favorite of the supposed contenders for a top-ten selection, Turner simply can't hit. He's never going to hit for any power. It's hard to justify a top-five pick on a player who will never have the ability to hit for power, and even with good speed and defense, I'd be despondent if we chose him.
C/1B Kyle Schwarber, Indiana: Schwarber is a beefy prospect with a good looking swing and an advanced approach. His bat should carry him to the majors and the possibility of him sticking at catcher in enticing. However, to me, he isn't much of an athlete, all but ruling out staying at catcher. The value of a bat-only first baseman better be off the charts to justify a top-five pick and Schwarber looks like a good, not great, prospect.
RHP Aaron Nola, LSU: It's all about the release point for me with Nola. His very low release point leads to a relatively flat fastball. Flat fastballs don't work at the highest level; the pitcher either needs downward trajectory from a high release point or downward movement from spin. Nola has neither. Drafting a pitcher at #4 with a middling fastball? No thanks.
SS Nick Gordon, FL High School: Much like his older brother Dee, Nick is a beanpole. He certainly projects to have more power than Dee as he fills out a bit more, but his game is currently too sloppy for me to see a star. Some team will draft him highly based on his overall ceiling given contributions in multiple facets of the game.
OF Michael Conforto, Oregon State: Conforto has no defensive value as a below-average left fielder or possible first baseman at the highest level. His bat is pretty with a compact lefty power stroke and excellent discipline at the plate. Still, his defensive, running, and athletic shortcomings make a top-five pick a reach.
LHP Brandon Finnegan, TCU: A diminutive (5'11") lefty, Finnegan nonetheless generates big velocity, working in the 90s with the ability to ratchet things up to the high-90s. His command is solid, but the secondary pitches, while projectable, lag behind at this point with his breaker a bit too slurvy and his changeup a bit too straight.
Conclusion
I am, rather obviously, less enthused with Alex Jackson than I am with the three pitchers that proceed him. But I think his power bat warrants top-five selection.
I really like Tyler Kolek. While acknowledging that his command appears lacking at this point, the fireballing teenager is too reminiscent of Kerry Wood to ignore. Plus, he's got the body to stick in a rotation even if the command never perfects.
Carlos Rodon would be a gift at #4, although his NC State coaches allowing him to throw 134 pitches in a recent start suggests that the box may have a few dents and dings in it. Regardless, he would immediately be among the best pitching prospects in the game upon selection and would figure into the Cubs' plans as soon as 2016.
But I'd pass on all three of those guys and every other player in the draft for the chance to select Brady Aiken. He is the complete prospect package: physique, velocity, movement, repeatability, mechanical soundness, conditioning, and diversity of arsenal.
So that's it. In my perfect world, the Cubs get Brady Aiken at #4, he flies through the system, and makes David Price look like Shawn Estes. Of course, he could just as easily turn out like Mark Pawelek. Such is life in the draft.
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