Just like they have for the past few years, the Cubs again spent 2014 turning current Major League talent into future Major League talent in addition to making a fourth straight top-ten draft selection. Jeff Samardzija, Jason Hammel, Emilio Bonifacio, James Russell, and Darwin Barney all left town with kids sent back to replace them. With only one week (at most) remaining in the baseball season, it's time for another look at the top youngsters in the system.
I will only consider prospects for this list. Javier Baez, Arismendy Alcantara, and Kyle Hendricks all would have ranked highly on this list, but all three are ineligible based on MLB service considerations.
As always, my grades are a reflection of a multitude of sources: personal viewings at Spring Training and Minor League games, MiLB.tv viewings, published scouting reports, unpublished scouting reports, and conversations with scouts. I'll use the 20-80 scale, and include my own grades for batter discipline, pitcher stamina, player durability, and risk; as is the case with other skills, 80 is the most desirable for these characteristics as well. The parenthetical age will be the player's age in the 2015 season (as of July 1, 2015). This is a look to the future, after all.
This list was prepared in early September at the conclusion of the Minor League season with only two changes coming in the intervening period. Gleyber Torres jumped from 19th to 12th upon reviewing his body of work more closely, and Erick Leal nabbed the coveted 50th spot from former pet project Ben Wells. Some individual grades have been amended as well, although none by more than 5 scouting points.
Speaking of Wells, before getting to the prospects themselves, here's a quick list of the players no longer on this list who appeared on the April 29th installment:
Graduated
SS Javier Baez
UTIL Arismendy Alcantara
SP Kyle Hendricks
Demoted
SP Dillon Maples
RP Trey McNutt
OF John Andreoli
OF Josh Vitters
RP Alberto Cabrera
SS Marco Hernandez
SP Felix Pena
SP Ben Wells
Obviously some folks have jumped around in the rankings. Without further adieu, the top 30.
1. SS Addison Russell
Date of Birth: 1/23/94 (Age 21)
Height, Weight: 6'0", 195 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 11th overall by Oakland A's in 2012; Traded with OF Billy McKinney, SP Dan Straily, and PTBNL to Chicago Cubs for SP Jeff Samardzija and SP Jason Hammel
2014 Stats: 5 Games @ Stockton (A+), 13 Games @ Midland (AA), 50 Games @ Tennessee: 279 PA, .295/.350/.508, 6.8% BB%, 17.6% K%, 13 HR, 1 3B, 14 2B, 6 SB
Tools: 70 Hit, 60 Power, 65 Discipline, 70 Glove, 60 Arm, 55 Run, 60 Durability, 60 Risk
Offensive Profile: Russell's offensive game is beautiful. His approach is sound, helping him generate good hitter's counts on a regular basis. His hands are extremely quick. Bat speed, bat speed, and more bat speed. Coming from a very simple open stance, this enables Russell to generate hard contact on a regular basis, including with emerging power. He's going to post very strong on-base percentages with very good power. Of note, Russell does not strike out often, a particularly impressive feat for an average-sized hitter with good power.
Defensive Profile: The offensive player described above is superb, but the defensive profile makes Russell even more attractive as he's a similarly talented defender. That's mind boggling. His glove is excellent as he makes both the routine and the difficult plays consistently. He has the most range of any Cubs shortstop - that's saying something - and plenty of arm to be an asset deep in the hole.
Red Flags: Injury. Russell leaves me lacking for words and criticisms. He did miss two months in 2014 due to a torn hamstring, but he was blazing hot after his return as the injury didn't appear to have affected him. Given it's nature as a relatively freak injury, there's no major concern. The overweight Russell from high school who got bad advice about putting on size is not even on the radar.
Path to the Majors: Russell looks like he could play in Chicago right now. He's that refined. It's incredible. As of the end of 2014, he has 261 plate appearances at AA. Given his success at the level (.303/.356/.531), he's a near-lock to start 2015 at Iowa with a call to the Show not far behind, particularly given his additional experience gained in a pair of stints in the Arizona Fall League.
Overall Projection: Russell has a good claim to being the top prospect in all of baseball. Combining his star-level offensive production with even passable defense at shortstop gives him an elite ceiling; his excellent defensive ability leaves him looking like the best player among an absurdly loaded group of young Cubs. We're talking about a guy who could go .310/.375/.500 with 25 homers and 10 steals while winning Gold Gloves. That's a generational talent. As Billy Beane said, it's Barry Larkin with power. Russell might be the only player who could unseat Kris Bryant as the top prospect in baseball.
Overall Grade; Role: 75; #2 or #3-hitting Regular SS
2. 3B/COF Kris Bryant
Date of Birth: 1/4/92 (Age 23)
Height, Weight: 6'5", 215 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 2nd overall by Chicago Cubs in 2013
2014 Stats: 68 Games @ Tennessee (AA), 70 Games @ Iowa (AAA): 594 PAs, .325/.438/.661, 14.5% BB%, 27.3% K%, 43 HR, 1 3B, 34 2B, 15 SB
Tools: 65 Hit, 80 Power, 75 Discipline, 50 Glove, 65 Arm, 40 Run, 70 Durability, 70 Risk
Offensive Profile: Bryant's smooth power that made him an attractive draftee has made him the best hitter in Minor League Baseball. The power is in baseball's elite tier with Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Gallo, and 2013 Chris Davis. Yet Bryant is clearly more than just a power hitter. His approach is refined, he makes ridiculously consistent hard contact, and he draws tons of walks. He will strikeout quite a bit, something that could suppress his on-base ability a tiny bit. That's nitpicking though: Bryant's a superstar with the bat.
Defensive Profile: After four games in June, I'm more convinced than ever of two things. First, Bryant has the mobility and glove to be an average third baseman. Second, his arm is so big that it will be an asset wherever he plays. There's enough there defensively for the Cubs to have options and that's a real plus.
Red Flags: Strikeouts and expectations. The strikeouts are high, although they haven't prevented him from dominating and he has repeatedly shown an ability to control them within a month or two at a new level. At this point, Bryant's toughest hurdle may very well be the franchise savior expectations placed on him.
Path to the Majors: If Bryant accepted a seven-year contract, he'd be up on Opening Day. Instead, he'll come up either (1) the day he accepts such a deal, or (2) in mid-April 2015 once the Cubs have secured control of his rights through 2021.
Overall Projection: Bryant has changed the discussion from him as a power hitter with plus on-base skills to likely being the best offensive prospect in baseball. He still might struggle to hit .300 given the strikeouts and flyball tendencies, but something like .285/.400/.560 with 40 homers and 5 steals no longer seems outlandish. I think he'll end up in an outfield corner only out of necessity, and he could find himself back at 3B should future roster moves permit a return.
Overall Grade; Role: 70; #3 or #4-hitting Regular LF or RF
3. COF Jorge Soler
Date of Birth: 2/25/92 (Age 23)
Height, Weight: 6'4", 215 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Signed as International Free Agent by Chicago Cubs in 2012 (9 years, $30M MLB contract)
2014 Stats: 8 Games @ Arizona (Rk), 22 Games @ Tennessee (AA), 32 Games @ Iowa (AAA): 236 PAs, .340/.432/.700, 14.0% BB%, 20.3% K%, 15 HR, 2 3B, 23 2B, 0 SB
24 Games @ Chicago (MLB): 97 PAs, .292/.330/.573, 6.2% BB%, 24.7% SO%, 5 HR, 1 3B, 8 2B, 1 SB
Tools: 50 Hit, 75 Power, 55 Discipline, 50 Glove, 80 Arm, 40 Run, 30 Durability, 40 Risk
Offensive Profile: Despite having missed an incredible amount of time, Soler's bat is so impressive that he can return and dominate. He cut out the previous noise in his pre-pitch and rediscovered much of the discipline that made him such an attractive international free agent. As a result, his power has manifested itself beautifully, and Soler has been a walk machine. Solid on-base skills and massive power has been an ideal recipe. He has shown an improved aptitude to handle breaking stuff this year as well.
Defensive Profile: His arm still helps mask his mobility deficiencies. Overall, his is an average corner profile.
Red Flags: Inexperience and health. This combination is still generally devastating. The latter issue has largely sapped Soler of his average speed. He cannot be relied upon to stay healthy. That can kill careers before they get going.
Path to the Majors: Soler has a job.
Overall Projection: It's still easy to project big power, but the return of an excellent walk rate makes it much easier to see above-average on-base skills too. That combination always works. I see Soler finding his way to .265/.345/.500 batting lines with 30 home runs and 5 steals while acknowledging that needed rest will limit his usefulness. Power, power, power.
Overall Grade; Role: 60; #4 or #5-hitting Regular RF
4. SP Jen-Ho Tseng
Date of Birth: 10/3/94 (Age 20)
Height, Weight: 6'1", 210 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/R
Transactions: Signed as International Free Agent by Chicago Cubs in 2013 ($1.625M signing bonus)
2014 Stats: 19 Games/17 Starts @ Kane County (A): 105.0 IP, 76 H, 15 BB (1.29 BB/9), 85 SO (7.29 SO/9), 7 HR, 29 R, 2.40 ERA, 1.08 GO/AO
Fastball: 60. Tseng works 89-93 with good tailing action on his fastball. It's possible that he could add even more life to the pitch as he matures.
Breaking Ball: 60. Tseng's 11-5 curveball works 74-77 and he has shown surprising command of the pitch at his young age.
Changeup: 60. His changeup has straight vertical drop at 81-83.
Additional Pitches: Tseng supposedly works in a slider, but I cannot find the pitch anywhere.
Physical and Other Tools: 70 Command, 65 Durability, 65 Stamina, 55 Risk
Pitching Profile: Tseng's physique is plenty solid. As with most Pacific Rim hurlers, Tseng employs a delay in his windup before exploding to the plate. His motion is fluid and repeatable, suggesting that he should be healthy enough to log the innings necessary to nudge his pitches up one level further.
Red Flags: Having passed the full-season test, the primary concern with Tseng is his ability to log a heavier workload as he progresses.
Path to the Majors: While almost impossible to believe, Tseng made his professional debut just this spring. He's going to spend 2015 in Myrtle Beach with some other members of this list with the chance to accelerate his timeline if his sequencing continues to overwhelm opposing hitters. He could be looking for a job in Chicago by early 2017.
Overall Projection: Tseng has proved far too advanced for even the older hitters in the Midwest League. Given his command of a strong arsenal and his frame, he has the look of an above-average starting pitcher, possibly with a second banana ceiling.
Overall Grade; Role: 60; #2/3 Starter
5. LF/C Kyle Schwarber
Date of Birth: 3/5/93 (Age 22)
Height, Weight: 6'0", 235 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/R
Transactions: Drafted 4th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2014
2014 Stats: 5 Games @ Boise (A-), 23 Games @ Kane County (A), 44 Games @ Daytona (A+): 311 PAs, .344/.428/.634, 6.7% BB%, 20.7% K%, 18 HR, 2 3B, 18 2B, 5 SB
Tools: 55 Hit, 65 Power, 65 Discipline, 35 Glove, 45 Arm, 30 Run, 45 Durability, 50 Risk
Offensive Profile: Schwarber employs a slightly open, crouched stance that enables him to generate significant leverage whenever he desires to do so. Accordingly, there is a lot of home run power in his game. He also has a tremendous approach at the plate, something that enables him to maximize his opportunities to utilize such power. His swing is strong enough to generate good batting averages, although he doesn't run well enough to beat out the extra singles often needed to push the average around .300. No matter: power and on-base skills abound.
Defensive Profile: Well then, isn't this tricky? Schwarber appears to have the classic 1B/DH build, although he is a better athlete than he might first appear to be. At catcher, he likely peaks as a fringe defender due to a middling arm and underwhelming lateral movement. In left field, he should be below average but playable. There's no defensive value coming from Schwarber. Despite the Cubs making noise about keeping him behind the plate, Schwaber is all outfielder in my eyes.
Red Flags: Pressure on the bat. Although Schwarber's toolbox portends an impact offensive force, his one-dimensional game puts enormous pressure on his bat. That has almost certainly derailed careers in the past.
Path to the Majors: Schwarber has rocketed through the system and appears to be on the Bryant timeline, give or take a bit. He'll predominantly play at Tennessee in 2015 with a late-season trip to Iowa within the realm of possibility. An MLB debut in mid-2016 sounds about right.
Overall Projection: Due to his defensive and running limitations, Schwarber won't be a star. Due to his offensive game, Schwarber should be an above-average regular. At this point, I have him pegged for .275/.360/.490 lines with 30 homers and 0 steals from a below-average left field profile. That's still a real asset.
Overall Grade; Role: 60; #3, #4 or #5-hitting Regular LF
6. SP Duane Underwood
Date of Birth: 7/20/94 (Age 20)
Height, Weight: 6'2", 205 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 67th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2012
2014 Stats: 22 Games/21 Starts @ Kane County (A): 100.2 IP, 85 H, 36 BB (3.22 BB/9), 84 SO (7.51 SO/9), 10 HR, 37 R, 2.50 ERA, 1.30 GO/AO
Fastball: 65. Although the pitch lacks movement, Underwood's fastball is still plus as he works 92-94 with the ability for even a bit more given his strong, athletic frame.
Breaking Ball: 55. At 73-75, Underwood's 11-5 curveball can be a plus pitch with only a bit more refinement and repetition. The movement is already there.
Changeup: 50. Underwood's changeup shows some fade, but it isn't a major piece of his arsenal yet. There's room for more.
Additional Pitches: N/A
Physical and Other Tools: 50 Command, 65 Durability, 65 Stamina, 45 Risk
Pitching Profile: Underwood has used his development time to transform himself into a legitimate, projectable pitching prospect. He has kept his walks under control while upping his strikeout rate despite the jump in level. That's the right stuff, even though his delivery clearly needs additional refinement.
Red Flags: Command. While his command is significantly better, it still needs to improve a few levels to reach where Underwood needs it to go.
Path to the Majors: 2015 in Myrtle Beach, 2016 in Tennessee and Iowa, 2017 in Iowa and Chicago. That's the path.
Overall Projection: Every now and then, a breakout candidate breaks out. That's Duane Underwood in 2014. His big fastball has become the weapon that the Cubs hoped it would when they drafted him, and his ability to work in the zone with strong results suggests that his future is very bright. He'll need the improved command as he advances, but Underwood's improvement thus far make a mid-rotation projection seem doable.
Overall Grade; Role: 60; #3 Starter
7. SP Paul Blackburn
Date of Birth: 12/4/93 (Age 21)
Height, Weight: 6'2", 205 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 56th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2012
2014 Stats: 24 Games/24 Starts @ Kane County (A): 117.0 IP, 108 H, 31 BB (2.38 BB/9), 75 SO (5.77 SO/9), 6 HR, 48 R, 3.23 ERA, 1.44 GO/AO
Fastball: 60. Blackburn worked 90-94 with strong two-plane movement late last year, but he has settled more in the 88-92 range.
Breaking Ball: 55. Blackburn works with a classic 12-6 curveball at 78-81.
Changeup: 60. Although the velocity is unknown, his changeup has nice sinking action and presumably resembles his fastball well based on some ugly swings.
Additional Pitches: N/A
Physical and Other Tools: 65 Command, 70 Durability, 65 Stamina, 55 Risk
Pitching Profile: Blackburn has the classic power starter's build, having added over 50 lbs. since draft day 2012. His fastball is his money pitch and as he continues to refine its command, it should generate lots of groundball contact. He will likely never be a big strikeout pitcher, but he has the look of a 200+ inning horse.
Red Flags: The strikeouts have faded since his promotion to full-season ball. If he can't find more of them, he'll be unable to dominate, even with superb command.
Path to the Majors: Blackburn spent all of 2014 at Kane County, but with his strong results - accented with five superb playoff innings versus Cedar Rapids - he'll be off to Myrtle Beach in 2015. He still looks like a one-level-per-year kind of guy, keeping him on track for a mid-2017 arrival.
Overall Projection: I'm still interested to see if the Cubs add a cutter to his makeup, but even without it, Blackburn's command of an MLB-caliber profile sure looks like a good pairing. Pitchers who don't walk anybody and keep the ball in the ballpark tend to thrive. He looks like an average MLB starter while remaining a breakout possibility if the velocity takes the leap with his newfound size and strength or if an added offering enables him to sequence in a more commanding fashion.
Overall Grade; Role: 60; #3/#4 Starter
8. OF Billy McKinney
Date of Birth: 8/23/94 (Age 20)
Height, Weight: 6'1", 195 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Transactions: Drafted 24th overall by Oakland A's in 2013; Traded with SS Addison Russell, SP Dan Straily, and PTBNL to Chicago Cubs for SP Jeff Samardzija and SP Jason Hammel
2014 Stats: 75 Games @ Stockton (A+), 51 Games @ Daytona (A+): 543 PAs, .264/.354/.412, 11.2% BB%, 18.4% K%, 11 HR, 6 3B, 24 2B, 6 SB
Tools: 70 Hit, 50 Power, 70 Discipline, 50 Glove, 45 Arm, 45 Run, 50 Durability, 60 Risk
Offensive Profile: McKinney can flat out hit. Despite skipping full-season A-ball entirely, McKinney held his own at Stockton before erupting after his trade to the Cubs. His over-the-fence power all but vanished after the trade, although his on-base skills were superb in Daytona and some of his California League home runs turned into doubles and triples in the Florida State League. He appears to have something just beyond Mark Grace's power potential, a smooth swinger who bops a handful of home runs by virtue of consistent hard contact.
Defensive Profile: I haven't heard anything good about McKinney's defensive future with most reports suggesting he's destined for left field. The ability to stick in center would be a huge boon to his value, but it seems unlikely.
Red Flags: Glove and power. If he's stuck in a corner, he needs a more impactful offensive game in order to justify an everyday job. Unfortunately, it's unclear as to whether there will be any real power in his profile.
Path to the Majors: McKinney should spend all of 2015 at AA, and most or all of 2016 at AAA. He could even spend a bit of time repeating AA just so he can get the necessary repetitions.
Overall Projection: McKinney's hit tool should carry him to an everyday job, although the eventual power arriving largely dictates his role. I see .295/.370/.435 lines with 10 homers and 5 steals from a corner profile. He's a good player; he's just not likely headed for greatness and his defensive shortcomings limit his overall effectiveness.
Overall Grade; Role: 55; #1 or #2-hitting Regular LF
9. SP Pierce Johnson
Date of Birth: 5/10/91 (Age 24)
Height, Weight: 6'3", 170 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 43rd overall by Chicago Cubs in 2012
2013 Stats: 2 Games/2 Starts @ Kane County (A), 18 Games/17 Starts @ Tennessee (AA): 102.2 IP, 64 H, 57 BB (5.00 BB/9), 99 SO (8.68 SO/9), 9 HR, 30 R, 2.54 ERA, 1.21 GO/AO
Fastball: 55. Johnson works 90-93 with excellent tail and dive on the pitch. His fastball command is good, though it could use improvement.
Breaking Ball: 70. In my eyes, Johnson's two-plane curveball or even slurve that he throws anywhere in the 77-82 range is the best breaking ball in the system. He commands it exceptionally well, throwing the power breaker to both lefties and righties and to both sides of the plate.
Changeup: 40. Unfortunately, the changeup is almost as bad as the curveball is good. The pitch features only some straight vertical drop at 81-84, but he showed very little feel for the offering when I saw him with no command whatsoever.
Additional Pitches: N/A
Physical and Other Tools: 60 Command, 50 Durability, 45 Stamina, 60 Risk
Pitching Profile: Johnson is light for my taste and his frame doesn't look like it can handle much more weight. Still, his fastball and curveball give him two MLB-ready pitches that would enable him to handle a job adequately right now. The changeup just isn't where it needs to be at this point.
Red Flags: Health. Johnson dealt with forearm problems in college that led to a sizeable drop on draft day, and he missed a solid chunk of 2014 nursing hamstring and calf injuries. Obviously the lack of a usable third pitch is an enormous red flag for a starting pitching prospect.
Path to the Majors: Johnson had arguably the most bizarre 2014 of any pitcher in the system as he limited hits in an incredible manager - opposing hitters hit just .187 against him - while issuing so many walks such that he was merely good. Nevertheless, he corralled his walks in the second half, cutting his first half walk rate from an early 2008 Rich Hill-esque 8.10 BB/9 to an almost acceptable 4.15 BB/9 over 12 second-half starts. Johnson could start 2015 back at Tennessee, but I expect that he begins the year in Iowa, spending the full season there with some looks in Chicago in 2016.
Overall Projection: Johnson's fastball-breaking ball combination remains strong, yet his missed development time likely stunted the growth of his changeup. I still like Johnson, and I can see him pushing that changeup to a playable level. I still see plenty of Jason Hammel in him. That would be Johnson's ceiling and an admirable one at that.
Overall Grade; Role: 55; #3/4 Starter
10. CF Jacob Hannemann
Date of Birth: 4/29/91 (Age 23)
Height, Weight: 6'1", 190 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Transactions: Drafted 75th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2013
2013 Stats: 88 Games @ Kane County (A), 36 Games @ Daytona (A+): 545 PAs, .251/.315/.368, 7.7% BB%, 20.4% K%, 8 HR, 5 3B, 23 2B, 37 SB
Tools: 60 Hit, 50 Power, 60 Discipline, 65 Glove, 60 Arm, 65 Run, 70 Durability, 25 Risk
Offensive Profile: Hannemann's athleticism was on full display in 2014 as he swiped 37 bags while being caught just seven times. Unfortunately, his rawness was also on display as more advanced pitching gave him plenty of trouble. He draws enough walks to get on base if his batting average climbs into the .270 range, but his tools are currently more projection than reality. I like the power potential for this plus athlete, although it never figures to be huge.
Defensive Profile: Hannemann has the package to be a plus defensive centerfielder with a strong enough arm complemented by excellent athleticism, fluid movement, and good speed. He would make an excellent defender in an outfield corner.
Red Flags: Inexperience. Hannemann's timeline is compressed due to his advanced age on draft day 2013, so he is especially sensitive to any missteps in the developmental process. He needs a leap more than most.
Path to the Majors: He's on the Samardzija path: slow and bumpy. Despite getting a taste of High-A in 2014, I suspect he'll spend a good chunk of 2015 at Myrtle Beach, needing a big showing to earn a promotion to Tennessee before the last month or so. He could still contend for some MLB playing time in 2016, but he needs to impress quickly in order for that to be a possibility.
Overall Projection: As I've mentioned before, my evaluation of Hannemann is the least analytical of any Cubs prospect. His combination of athleticism and makeup makes me want him to be great, even if that's not in the cards. The speed is there for plus defense, steals, and a run-aided batting average. The other tools have shown some flashes, but he needs a major jump or two to have a shot. I think he can do it and be a guy with .270/.350/.430 lines in his future with 15 homers and 30 steals from a plus defensive center field. Is that any good?
Overall Grade; Role: 60; #1, #2, or #6-hitting Regular CF
11. C Victor Caratini
Date of Birth: 8/17/93 (Age 21)
Height, Weight: 6'0", 195 lbs.
Bats/Throws: B/R
Transactions: Drafted 65th overall by Atlanta Braves in 2013; Traded to Chicago Cubs for UTIL Emilio Bonifacio and RP James Russell
2014 Stats: 87 Games @ Rome (A), 14 Games @ Kane County (A): 423 PAs, ..277/.346/.402, 9.0% BB%, 16.3% K%, 5 HR, 5 3B, 22 2B, 1 SB
Tools: 55 Hit, 50 Power, 60 Discipline, 50 Glove, 55 Arm, 30 Run, 70 Durability, 50 Risk
Offensive Profile: Caratini's offensive game is driven by strong athleticism and a solid approach. He posted a ridiculous 15.9% BB% in Rookie ball in 2013, and he proved his aptitude for free passes in 2014. The body is there for some power, although it hasn't really shown up much in games yet. His only average tools should shine through thanks to his impressive approach at the plate. An added bonus: his bat flip should make him famous.
Defensive Profile: As a 3B/1B/DH, Caratini is likely minor league fodder. But as a catcher? He's got a real future. He has a way to go in perfecting the craft as a somewhat recent convert, but the tools are there for an above-average defensive profile.
Red Flags: Ceiling and experience. There's nothing about Caratini's profile that really scares me, but there's also nothing about the profile that is truly exciting except for his new position. He also lacks experience behind the plate.
Path to the Majors: Caratini will likely spend all of 2015 at Myrtle Beach, catching a veritable "who's who" among Cubs pitching prospects. Assuming he clicks with the hurlers, he should move with them: to Tennessee for 2016 and then to the Majors as is appropriate.
Overall Projection: Caratini isn't the sexiest prospect, but in a system devoid of catching talent, he was an enormously important acquisition. His offensive profile is plenty encouraging thanks to his discipline, so I can foresee a .270/.345/.430 hitter behind the dish with 15 homers and 0 steals. At catcher, that is a really nice profile.
Overall Grade; Role: 55; #2, #6, or #7-hitting Regular C
12. SS/2B Gleyber Torres
Date of Birth: 12/13/96 (Age 18)
Height, Weight: 6'1", 175 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Signed as International Free Agent by Chicago Cubs in 2013 ($1.7M bonus)
2014 Stats: 43 Games @ Arizona Cubs (Rk), 7 Games @ Boise (A-): 215 PAs, .297/.386/.440, 13.5% BB%, 18.6% K%, 2 HR, 6 3B, 8 2B, 10 SB
Tools: 60 Hit, 50 Power, 65 Discipline, 60 Glove, 55 Arm, 55 Run, 70 Durability, 50 Risk
Offensive Profile: Torres earned his grade jumps with an impressive stateside debut where he showed good hitting ability, a tremendous approach at the plate, and more speed than expected. Power still figures to be his worst tool, yet his athleticism enabled him to rack up plenty of extra-base hits. After such an impressive showing, Torres has me believing that he'll have the ability to be a real asset with the bat.
Defensive Profile: I still think Torres winds up playing second base, although he spent his early time at shortstop. Given his surprising athleticism, there may yet be a shortstop in there. Regardless, he'll be an asset with the glove at second.
Red Flags: Age. Still only 18, Torres has a lot of levels between him and Chicago where he'll have to prove his
Path to the Majors: This one got way more interesting this year as Torres jumped ahead of his classmate Jimenez in climbing to the Northwest League. I expect him to spend 2015 in South Bend where he'll likely take some lumps. Nonetheless, 2016 in Myrtle Beach and perhaps even a bit of time in Tennessee seems reasonable with a shot to play in the Show as a 20-year-old in 2017. He could do it. He's changed the conversation.
Overall Projection: That Torres still doesn't project as a star, that possibility has reentered the conversation. I previously projected .275/.350/.430 with 15 homers and 5 steals; the only adjustments I'll make to that projection are 15 steals instead of 5 and a note that he's much more likely to reach these levels than he was six months ago. He's still a really nice player.
Overall Grade; Role: 60; #2 or #7-hitting Regular 2B
13. COF Eloy Jimenez
Date of Birth: 11/27/96 (Age 18)
Height, Weight: 6'4", 205 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Signed as International Free Agent by Chicago Cubs in 2013 ($2.8M bonus)
2014 Stats: 42 Games @ Arizona Cubs (Rk): 164 PAs, .227/.268/.367, 6.1% BB%, 19.5% K%, 3 HR, 2 3B, 8 2B, 3 SB
Tools: 65 Hit, 60 Power, 50 Discipline, 50 Glove, 60 Arm, 45 Run, 50 Durability, 35 Risk
Offensive Profile: Jimenez's stateside debut got off to a very promising start as he posted a .257/.304/.419 in his first 20 games. Unfortunately the wheels fell off thereafter. No matter: Eloy has the classic power frame with a very pretty swing that should hit for plenty of average. Average, power, and a promising approach from his admittedly very limited sample portends an impact corner bat.
Defensive Profile: Jimenez's arm will be an asset, although his glove and range figure to be no better than average. That's good enough if the bat comes along.
Red Flags: Age and inexperience. Jimenez hasn't yet turned 18 and has 164 plate appearances in Rookie ball. The path is long.
Path to the Majors: This is where it gets interesting. If Eloy really impresses, he could find himself breaking camp and heading to South Bend for a year in the Midwest League. More likely, he'll spend some time in Eugene before finishing up in South Bend. If that's the case, he'll split 2016 between South Bend and Myrtle Beach, split 2017 between Myrtle Beach and Tennessee, and look to push for some Major League time by mid-to-late-2018.
Overall Projection: So of Jimenez's baseball skills showed up in his limited time this summer, so I feel even more comfortable with my previous projection of .285/.350/.475 lines with 25 homers and 5 steals annually for the big Dominican outfielder.
Overall Grade; Role: 60; #4 or #5-hitting Regular LF or RF
14. SP Rob Zastryzny
Date of Birth: 3/26/92 (Age 23)
Height, Weight: 6'3", 205 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/L
Transactions: Drafted 41st overall by Chicago Cubs in 2013
2014 Stats: 23 Games/23 Starts @ Dayonta (A+): 110.0 IP, 121 H, 33 BB (2.70 BB/9), 110 SO (9.00 SO/9), 10 HR, 58 R, 4.66 ERA, 1.19 GO/AO
Fastball: 50. Zastryzny's heater is a generally straight pitch at 87-91, although he can dial it up a bit more and will occasionally cut or dive the pitch.
Breaking Ball: 45. His 11-5 curveball is a sub-average offering at present, functioning more as a get-me-over breaker than a true weapon.
Changeup: 55. The changeup, while hardly exciting, is the best of the bunch featuring solid tumbling action.
Additional Pitches: Zastryzny also throws a slider, although I can't find it on video anywhere.
Physical and Other Tools: 50 Command, 80 Durability, 70 Stamina, 70 Risk
Pitching Profile: Zastryzny has the body to be a useful starter and his pitches have flashed plenty to justify him sticking in a rotation. Although the stuff is underwhelming, his whole appears to be greater than the sum of his parts. There's enough ability to make some noise.
Red Flags: Ceiling. Even if everything breaks right for Zastryzny, it's difficult to imagine him being an impact arm. Not exactly what you dream about at #41 overall.
Path to the Majors: After throwing just 9.2 innings at Kane County in 2013, the front office dubbed Zastryzny ready for the Florida State League. The results were mixed as his peripherals suggested that he deserved better than his 4.66 ERA (his FIP was 3.66) while his home run rate and high BABIP (.348) suggested that he got hit harder than one would like. Regardless, he's off to Tennessee for 2015 for another full year in the minors with Major League time in his future by 2016.
Overall Projection: The projection holds: though the ceiling isn't great, Zastryzny is still a big, sufficiently-athletic lefty with a low-90s fastball, plenty of polish, and some projection remaining. He needs to make a couple of jumps to project as a playoff-caliber starter, but it's easy to see him spending a few years in a big league rotation.
Overall Grade; Role: 50; #4/#5 Starter
15. CF Albert Almora
Date of Birth: 4/16/94 (Age 21)
Height, Weight: 6'2", 180 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 6th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2012
2014 Stats: 89 Games @ Daytona (A+), 36 Games @ Tennessee (AA): 530 PAs, .270/.291/.392, 2.6% BB%, 13.0% K%, 9 HR, 4 3B, 27 2B, 6 SB
Tools: 65 Hit, 50 Power, 25 Discipline, 55 Glove, 55 Arm, 50 Run, 55 Durability, 65 Risk
Offensive Profile: The encouraging Almora from this spring didn't make the trip east. The hit tool is still strong and his power still figures to live in the average zone. The discipline is just sabotaging the entire package. He can't stop swinging. His development path looks disturbingly similar to that of Josh Vitters, another smooth swinger who couldn't lay off hittable pitches that were nonetheless not hitter's pitches. That's Almora right now. He's getting passed by oodles of prospects in this system.
Defensive Profile: I still don't get the hype. Almora looks like an average center fielder, if that.
Red Flags: Swinging. For a few years now, it's been about the approach and discipline with Almora. It doesn't do him any good to make consistent contact if it is often weak. He needs to stop swinging, and until he does so, he's going to stunt his own growth.
Path to the Majors: It's unfortunately long for a guy with his pedigree and a month at AA under his belt. He figures to split 2015 between Tennessee and Iowa, but he'll likely need significant time at AAA. I wouldn't expect him much before the 2016 All-Star Break. The offensive development is more important anyway and could slow him way down. His completely undeserved promotion in 2014 likely didn't do him any favors as he posted a heinous .232/.248/.352 line at Tennessee, drawing just two walks over 145 PAs.
Overall Projection: I'm back to thinking that there isn't much ceiling with Almora and that the floor might even be lower than previously anticipated. I have faith that his game will mature enough to get him on base more than he has in the minors thus far, but we're not talking about an impact guy here. Perhaps something like .265/.315/.400 with 10 homers and 10 steals from a solid centerfielder if everything clicks. That's not sexy, but it plays. I suppose.
Overall Grade; Role: 50; #6 or #7-hitting Regular CF
16. RP C.J. Edwards
Date of Birth: 9/3/91 (Age 23)
Height, Weight: 6'2", 155 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 1,464th overall by Texas Rangers in 2011; Traded with 3B Mike Olt, RP Justin Grimm, and PTBNL (RP Neil Ramirez) to Chicago Cubs for SP Matt Garza
2014 Stats: 2 Games/2 Starts @ Arizona Cubs (Rk), 10 Games/10 Starts @ Tennessee (AA): 53.2 IP, 32 H, 25 BB (4.19 BB/9), 54 SO (9.06 SO/9), 1 HR, 15 R, 2.35 ERA, 1.19 GO/AO
Fastball: 70. Despite only slight tail, Edwards commands his heater well and works at 92-95. It's hard to argue with that.
Breaking Ball: 55. His 11-5 curveball at 75-80 gets the job done, but it could use some improvement.
Changeup: 60. Edwards' changeup is an excellent complement to his fastball, coming in at 82-86 and featuring similar tail with good diving action.
Additional Pitches: N/A
Physical and Other Tools: 60 Command, 30 Durability, 35 Stamina, 75 Risk
Pitching Profile: There's no debating the quality of Edwards' arsenal: he has the three-pitch mix that makes up most strong careers. Unfortunately, his frame is overwhelmingly unlikely to carry the load of 200 innings and if tasked with a starting role, I fear that he would break down. As a reliever, I am confident that he would be a true weapon.
Red Flags: The body. Edwards has the pitches and he has progressed nicely. But 155 lbs. is 155 lbs.
Path to the Majors: I left the above commentary untouched from my April 2014 rankings because it proved (and proves) accurate. Edwards has an elite arm with excellent pitches...but that body just never makes it as a starter. His body finally caught up to him in 2014 as shoulder inflammation cost him three solid months of a five month season. I expect that his inevitable move to the bullpen will occur at some point in 2015, and given that he needs to be rostered, don't be surprised if Edwards the reliever reaches Chicago in August.
Overall Projection: Elite arm + terrible body = excellent reliever. Very simple. Unfortunately for Edwards, all but the very elite relievers rarely eclipse the 1.0 WAR level, hence the low ranking compared to that of many others.
Overall Grade; Role: 65; Closer
17. SP Dylan Cease
Date of Birth: 12/28/95 (Age 19)
Height, Weight: 6'1", 175 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 169th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2014
2014 Stats: Did Not Pitch
Fastball: 70. Cease throws gas, working in the 92-94 range with the ability to hit 97 or even 98. Location was spotty this year, but that's likely an effect of his elbow troubles.
Breaking Ball: 60. There's a power curve to be found there, although it was also wildly inconsistent this year. This grade reflects more of its future ability when he learns to stay on top of the pitch.
Changeup: 30. Easily Cease's worst pitch, the changeup will likely be scrapped so that the Cubs can start fresh with the offspeed offering.
Additional Pitches: N/A
Physical and Other Tools: 40 Command, 30 Durability, 60 Stamina, 20 Risk
Pitching Profile: Cease has a herky-jerky delivery, but he uses it to deliver some impressive heat. Even in a smaller body, there's plenty of projection to see him filling out and developing into a starting asset.
Red Flags: Health and age. Cease is a teenager, so the path is long. More alarmingly, he's almost certainly headed for Tommy John surgery - I cannot find any confirmation that he has undergone the procedure as of yet - something that will cost him a year of development and calls into question the impact of his mechanics on his health. Cease's red flags are enormous.
Path to the Majors: This is hard. He hasn't thrown a professional pitch yet and will likely lose all of 2015 to injury. With that, don't expect to see Cease in Chicago before 2019, even if everything comes together.
Overall Projection: Even though he'll move very slowly even if things come together, Cease has the kind of electricity in his arm that portends future impact. It's far too soon to write him off as a starter while acknowledging that he would likely thrive in a relief role. He could be a mid-rotation arm with the chance to reach #2 status, but the likelihood of such a result is probably somewhere in the range of 10% to 0%. Undeniably worth the risk for a sixth round pick.
Overall Grade; Role: 60; #3 Starter
18. SP Carson Sands
Date of Birth: 3/28/95 (Age 20)
Height, Weight: 6'3", 205 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Transactions: Drafted 109th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2014
2014 Stats: 9 Games/4 Starts @ Arizona Cubs (Rk): 19.0 IP, 15 H, 7 BB (3.32 BB/9), 20 SO (9.47 SO/9), 0 HR, 7 R, 1.89 ERA, 1.00 GO/AO
Fastball: 50. Sands has an eminently average lefty fastball, working in the high-80s with minimal movement.
Breaking Ball: 40. His mid-70s slurvy breaker is hardly exciting and it will need to make a jump to play in the pros.
Changeup: 60. The changeup is there, a mid-70s tumbler that has the look of a changeup that makes a career.
Additional Pitches: N/A
Physical and Other Tools: 50 Command, 35 Durability, 60 Stamina, 30 Risk
Pitching Profile: Sands' delivery is tough to watch as he appears to put a tremendous amount of strain on his shoulder. Nevertheless, the big-bodied lefty creates a bit of plane leverage, and his mechanics are largely repeatable even if I think the Cubs will scrap them and start anew.
Red Flags: Age and mechanics. Sands is also a teenager for now, although age is a red flag with him because he was such an old high school player, turning 20 before Opening Day 2015. His mechanics concern me as well, although I'm not a scout.
Path to the Majors: If the Cubs are ok with his delivery, Sands is a sneaky candidate to head to South Bend to start the 2015 season. He'll likely end it there regardless. Myrtle Beach for a full year in 2016, then to Tennessee in 2017. Major League starts could come as soon as the end of 2017 with 2018 a more realistic target. If they hate his mechanics, expect another year in Arizona followed by a slower path.
Overall Projection: Sands has a decidedly lower ceiling than Cease, but as a big lefty he'll be given every chance to reach it. He has a classic back-of-the-rotation profile.
Overall Grade; Role: 55; #4 Starter
19. SP Erling Moreno
Date of Birth: 1/13/97 (Age 18)
Height, Weight: 6'3", 200 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Signed as International Free Agent by Chicago Cubs in 2013 ($650K signing bonus)
2014 Stats: 4 Games/4 Starts @ Dominican Summer League Cubs (Rk), 1 Game/1 Start @ Venezuelan Summer League Cubs (Rk): 11.1 IP, 10 H, 3 BB (2.38 BB/9), 9 SO (7.15 SO/9), 0 HR, 2 R, 0.79 ERA, 1.75 GO/AO
Fastball: 60. Moreno still finds himself in the high-80s with plenty of projection to see a consistent low-90s heater even though the pitch is very straight.
Breaking Ball: 35. His slurve needs lots of work but he does command the slow breaker well.
Changeup: 60. Probably his best pitch with big downward movement; it falls off the table with clean arm action.
Additional Pitches: N/A
Physical and Other Tools: 60 Command, 50 Durability, 60 Stamina, 30 Risk
Pitching Profile: Moreno has plenty of current size and a frame that should hold an additional 20-30 lbs. of good weight. His delivery is methodical and very easy making his current velocity all the more impressive.
Red Flags: Age. He turns 18 soon and hasn't pitched stateside. What could go wrong?
Path to the Majors: Moreno needs to pitch in the U.S. first. He should do so in Arizona this year followed by a trip to Eugene in 2016 with full season ball ready for him at 20. That puts him on track for a shot at the top level in 2020.
Overall Projection: Moreno strikes me as a kid who could move quickly but with a lower ceiling. His pitches show signs of being useful top level offerings, but he still needs tons of refinement and will likely never work in the mid-90s to cover up any other flaws. Nonetheless, he's going to have the build of a workhorse starter and the pitches to justify the role.
Overall Grade; Role: 55; #4 Starter
20. SP Dallas Beeler
Date of Birth: 6/12/89 (Age 26)
Height, Weight: 6'5", 210 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 1,240th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2010
2014 Stats: 20 Games/20 Starts @ Iowa (AAA): 124.1 IP, 112 H, 32 BB (2.32 BB/9), 83 SO (6.01 SO/9), 8 HR, 48 R, 3.40 ERA, 1.68 GO/AO
2 Games/2 Starts @ Chicago (MLB): 11.0 IP, 10 H, 7 BB (5.73 BB/9), 6 SO (4.91 SO/9), 0 HR, 5 R, 3.27 ERA, 1.56 GO/AO
Fastball: 60. Not the traditional power heater, Beeler's high-80s/low-90s hard-biting sinker gets him ground balls and even some whiffs. It's a really excellent platform pitch.
Breaking Ball: 40. His slider is more of a cutter and it doesn't move much. Hard to be too exited about what is basically a "get me over" offering.
Changeup: 55. Featuring nearly identical action to his fastball, Beeler's mid-80s sinking changeup works just fine.
Additional Pitches: N/A
Physical and Other Tools: 60 Command, 60 Durability, 65 Stamina, 70 Risk
Pitching Profile: Beeler is big-bodied with adequate stuff and a clean delivery. It's not special, but it's plenty good.
Red Flags: Ceiling. Beeler has already achieved the Major League level and his AAA results have been very strong. He's just not a special arm.
Path to the Majors: Already there, although he'll make some trips to Iowa.
Overall Projection: Beeler is the kind of organizational arm that sticks around because the stuff is just good enough and the results have been just consistent enough. It's not a special package, but it's certainly one that would leave the club quite content in one of the fifth starter/long man jobs. Not bad for a 41st round pick.
Overall Grade; Role: 50; #5 Starter
21. 1B Dan Vogelbach
Date of Birth: 12/17/92 (Age 22)
Height, Weight: 6'0", 220 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/R
Transactions: Drafted 68th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2011
2013 Stats: 132 Games @ Daytona (A+): 560 PAs, .268/.357/.429, 11.8% BB%, 16.3% K%, 16 HR, 1 3B, 28 2B, 4 SB
Tools: 60 Hit, 60 Power, 65 Discipline, 25 Glove, 40 Arm, 20 Run, 35 Durability, 50 Risk
Offensive Profile: Vogelbach still has the 1990s-era 1B pedigree even if his body has changed. He still possesses excellent raw power and strong on-base skills. I thought less of Vogelbach's power than most enter last season, and he produced another good, not great, power season. Vogelbach still makes lots of good contact and draws plenty of walks, but he'll need the power to show up more forcefully to have an impact future given no speed.
Defensive Profile: Even with his physical improvements, Vogelbach is strictly a first baseman and likely a very poor one at that.
Red Flags: Development and body. Vogelbach's power just isn't showing up in games in the way that many hoped. His body will always be a concern.
Path to the Majors: Vogelbach is getting closer. While he figures to spend the vast majority of 2015 at Tennessee, his bat could have him in the Majors by the first part of 2016 or even at the very end of 2015 in the right situation.
Overall Projection: I still like Dan; I still don't see a terribly high ceiling due to no speed and no glove. The projected batting line remains .260/.340/.455 at maturity with 25 homers and 0 steals, but the whole package remains only average. He's still a candidate for an offensive explosion, but it needs to happen at some point.
Overall Grade; Role: 50; #4 or #5-hitting Regular 1B
22. SP Jake Stinnett
Date of Birth: 4/25/92 (Age 23)
Height, Weight: 6'4", 205 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 45th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2014
2014 Stats: 3 Games/2 Starts @ Arizona Cubs (Rk), 2 Games/2 Starts @ Boise (A-): 11.0 IP, 12 H, 2 BB (1.64 BB/9), 10 SO (8.18 SO/9), 1 HR, 6 R, 4.91 ERA, 1.56 GO/AO
Fastball: 60. Stinnett uses a low-90s two-seamer with big tailing action although there is not much dive to the pitch.
Breaking Ball: 40. His slider moves quite a bit, but Stinnett has no command of the offering whatsoever.
Changeup: 30. Stinnett technically throws one, but it is likely the be scrapped with a new changeup in its place as he matures.
Additional Pitches: 60 four-seam fastball
Physical and Other Tools: 35 Command, 60 Durability, 50 Stamina, 30 Risk
Pitching Profile: Stinnett has only pitched for two years, and he has only started for one, as a senior at Maryland. He has the size to be an impact pitcher as well as the arm to do so. However, his extreme inexperience makes him as raw as top-50 picks get.
Red Flags: Experience. Stinnett has barely pitched. He has a lot to learn.
Path to the Majors: Stinnett impressively made it to Boise in 2014, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him start 2015 in Extended Spring Training before pitching in Eugene and finishing the season in South Bend. If that's the case, he'll start 2015 in South Bend before jumping to Myrtle Beach, 2016 in Myrtle Beach and Tennessee, and 2017 between Tennessee and Iowa with mid-2017 the earliest possible arrival date.
Overall Projection: Stinnett has the makings of a starting pitcher; however, at this point, he has none of the refinement thereof, making a true projection extremely difficult. Given that, I'll just say that Stinnett has the raw tools to grow into a starting pitcher while recognizing that the odds are that he won't.
Overall Grade; Role: 50; #4/#5 Starter
23. SP Daury Torrez (no video)
Date of Birth: 6/11/93 (Age 22)
Height, Weight: 6'3", 200 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Signed as International Free Agent by Chicago Cubs in 2010 ($25K signing bonus)
2014 Stats: 23 Games/23 Starts @ Kane County (A): 131.1 IP, 110 H, 21 BB (1.44 BB/9), 81 SO (5.55 SO/9), 8 HR, 50 R, 2.74 ERA, 1.15 GO/AO
Fastball: 60. Torrez works with a low-90s biting two-seamer that both sinks and runs well. He has excellent command of the offering.
Breaking Ball: 55. His low-80s slider is a tick behind the fastball in terms of effectiveness, but he uses the pitch well even though it isn't a whiff offering.
Changeup: 40. By all accounts, Torrez needs to work on his changeup. However, the pitch has become much more usable than it was when he left the Dominican Republic.
Additional Pitches: N/A
Physical and Other Tools: 70 Command, 60 Durability, 70 Stamina, 60 Risk
Pitching Profile: Torrez has a big pitcher's frame, something that enabled him to skip short-season ball and thrive in the Midwest League to the tune of 5.7 innings per start. His fastball command is the calling card as the hard-moving two-plane delivery generated plenty of weak contact and avoided walks. Torrez immediately brings Carlos Silva to mind (the younger one from Minnesota, not the end-of-career Silva we saw in Chicago), living in the bottom of the zone with movement while minimizing free passes.
Red Flags: Ceiling. Torrez is big, strong, and consistent, but 5 1/2 strikeouts per nine in A ball portends trouble. Major League hitters make much better contact than their Minor League counterparts, so Torrez will need either a grade jump from his slider or a massively improved changeup to generate some more whiffs.
Path to the Majors: Torrez will start 2015 in Myrtle Beach, and after an extremely impressive run in 2014, he could find himself in Tennessee before the year is through. Don't be shocked if he makes a few MLB appearances in mid-2016.
Overall Projection: Torrez has the body, fastball, slider, and command to make it as a starter. He is durable and his ability to limit walks while also keeping his H/9 at a low rate is excellent. However, that 60 Risk rating reflects a relatively modest ceiling, a #5 starter or long reliever. The rating is more like a 40 if projecting Torrez as a #3 starter or better. More likely, Torrez continues climbing with his fastball/slider command profile, and lives a life similar to that of Carlos Villanueva. That would make Torrez quite valuable; the chance for more makes him even more attractive.
Overall Grade; Role: 50; #5 starter
24. COF Jeffrey Baez
Date of Birth: 10/30/93 (Age 21)
Height, Weight: 6'0", 180 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Signed as International Free Agent by Chicago Cubs in 2010 ($350K signing bonus)
2014 Stats: 38 Games @ Boise (A-), 31 Games @ Kane County (A): 298 PA, .255/.324/.472, 8.1% BB%, 26.2% K%, 13 HR, 3 3B, 13 2B, 17 SB
Tools: 50 Hit, 55 Power, 45 Discipline, 60 Glove, 60 Arm, 55 Run, 70 Durability, 30 Risk
Offensive Profile: The "other Baez" is a tremendous athlete, having significantly filled out his frame over the past few years. His physicality contributes to his above-average raw power that could grow to be even more. Baez enjoyed a nice year in 2014 where he showed that his offensive skills can play against stiffer competition, but his 32.2% K% at Kane County calls his contact ability into question. He's young enough that there is plenty of time to show increased aptitude with the bat and for a solid corner profile to emerge.
Defensive Profile: Baez is strong and fast. It's an excellent corner outfield profile although he won't find himself in center.
Red Flags: Experience and strikeouts. Baez is young and yet to play a full Minor League season. More alarmingly, his strikeout rate could cause stunt his growth before his prospect star has a chance to fully emerge.
Path to the Majors: Baez will start 2015 in full season ball, and while there's a chance he could begin at Myrtle Beach, I suspect that he will debut back in the Midwest League at South Bend. Mid-2015 should find a promotion to Myrtle Beach. If he limits strikeouts, he's at Tennessee in 2016 and looking toward Chicago in 2017. If the strikeouts continue, he's a one-level-per-year prospect.
Overall Projection: Baez has a really big ceiling with average on-base skills, above-average power, a plus defensive profile, and a plus health profile. Presumably his speed and his power are mutually exclusive, but even if that is true, he should have an adequate amount of the lesser resource. If everything progresses - a big if - Baez should find himself in an everyday corner gig with .260/.325/.430 lines with 20 homers and 10 steals to go along with strong defense. That's certainly starter material if not impact stuff.
Overall Grade; Role: 55; #5 or #6-hitting Regular LF or RF
25. SP Jefferson Mejia
Date of Birth: 8/2/94 (Age 20)
Height, Weight: 6'7", 195 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Signed as International Free Agent by Chicago Cubs in 2013 ($850K signing bonus)
2014 Stats: 12 Games/2 Starts @ Arizona Cubs (Rk): 40.0 IP, 30 H, 17 BB (3.83 BB/9), 45 SO (10.13 SO/9), 1 HR, 25 R, 2.48 ERA, 1.53 GO/AO
Fastball: 60. Mejia already has a big fastball working at 90-93 with some tail.
Breaking Ball: 45. His mid-70s 12-6 curveball has improved a bit, although I still wouldn't be surprised to see the organization push him into a slider.
Changeup: 60. Mejia's changeup is similar to Erling Moreno's as it is an advanced tumbling offering given his age, even though Mejia is two years older.
Additional Pitches: N/A
Physical and Other Tools: 50 Command, 50 Durability, 55 Stamina, 30 Risk
Pitching Profile: Mejia's mechanics are choppy and wasteful as he appears to get only very poor weight transfer from his load to his release. This comes with the caveat that I don't have any video of him pitching in affiliated ball. Still, he may have the largest gap in the system between his current ability and his future ceiling given the messiness of his game at present.
Red Flags: Age and mechanics. Mejia's mechanics likely need an overhaul and he's yet to reach even short season ball.
Path to the Majors: I previously anticipated Mejia not reaching full season ball until 2016, but that plan may have changed. He received the needed visa to pitch in the U.S. this year and showed the type of stuff that yielded such a large bonus. He could spend 2015 at South Bend, although even a summer at Eugene would keep him on track. He likely won't reach Tennessee until some time in 2017 suggesting that 2018 would be the earliest arrival date in Chicago.
Overall Projection: Mejia's large frame and diving fastball give him the ability to generate lots of groundouts if he harnesses his arsenal. If he does manage to do so, he'll get plenty of strikeouts too. Strikeouts and groundballs are the calling card of a mid-rotation starter. The overall grade hasn't shifted, but his risk rating has improved as he reached the States and seemingly put any identity issues behind him.
Overall Grade; Role: 55; #4 Starter
26. C/COF Mark Zagunis
Date of Birth: 2/5/93 (Age 22)
Height, Weight: 6'0", 205 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 78th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2014
2013 Stats: 2 Games @ Arizona Cubs (Rk), 41 Games @ Boise (A-), 14 Games @ Kane County (A): 262 PAs, .288/.420/.420, 16.0% BB%, 16.0% K%, 2 HR, 3 3B, 16 2B, 16 SB
Tools: 55 Hit, 40 Power, 65 Discipline, 50 Glove, 45 Arm, 65 Run, 70 Durability, 40 Risk
Offensive Profile: Zagunis is a solid athlete. Although he doesn't look to regularly hit for power, he has a good swing that should generate plenty of contact, tremendous discipline, and plus-plus speed. After walking more than he struck out during his last to years in college, he complemented his first 42 professional strikeouts with 42 walks. If the bat is as advertised, he's going to get on base plenty.
Defensive Profile: Zagunis should be a fine outfielder, though nothing special, but the real question here is about his ability to catch. From what I've seen, the arm isn't there. If it is, he's going to climb these rankings in a hurry.
Red Flags: Defensive home. If Zagunis is a corner outfielder, his speed/walks approach almost certainly won't be enough to earn an everyday job. If he's a catcher, he's a seriously hot commodity. It's pretty simple.
Path to the Majors: With Kyle Schwarber slated to return to Myrtle Beach to being 2015, Zagunis figures to have an everyday job in South Bend. He should spend the summer in Myrtle Beach with an eye on Tennessee in 2016. If he's a developing catcher, he'll go one level per year. If he's an outfielder/supersub/emergency catcher, his skill set could have him competing for bench plate appearances by the end of 2016 and certainly during 2017.
Overall Projection: As noted above, I don't believe in the arm, so I think that Zagunis is a utility guy/pinch runner/bench bat/fringe outfield starter. In that capacity, he's a fine player but nothing special. We're probably talking about .280/.360/.390 lines from a fringe starter with 5 homers and 20 steals. He has a tough hurdle to leap in search of playing time.
Overall Grade; Role: 45; Reserve outfielder/utility player
27. SP Justin Steele
Date of Birth: 7/11/95 (Age 19)
Height, Weight: 6'1", 180 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Transactions: Drafted 139th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2014
2014 Stats: 9 Games/4 Starts @ Arizona Cubs (Rk): 18.2 IP, 15 H, 8 BB (3.86 BB/9), 25 SO (12.05 SO/9), 0 HR, 6 R, 2.89 ERA, 1.31 GO/AO
Fastball: 50. Like fellow draftee Carson Sands, Steele has an average lefty fastball, working in the high-80s with minimal movement.
Breaking Ball: 45. His 11-5 curveball gets the job done, but the pitch is nothing special.
Changeup: 35. You have to squint really hard to see a usable pitch here. Regardless, it needs a ton of work. Some call it a cutter; it needs significant improvement no matter the name.
Additional Pitches: N/A
Physical and Other Tools: 40 Command, 50 Durability, 50 Stamina, 30 Risk
Pitching Profile: Steele has a small, compact delivery, something that should help his command improve as he gets the necessary repetitions with his delivery. Nothing jumps out about his profile, although the rookie level strikeout rate is a nice plus.
Red Flags: Age and ceiling. He's young and it's hard to see what exactly will push him into consideration for a serious role down the road.
Path to the Majors: Steele will likely spend 2015 between extended spring training and Eugene with full season ball coming in 2016. That would have him pushing for Chicago in 2019.
Overall Projection: Steele has enough size to stick as a starter provided that he puts on an additional 15-20 pounds over the next few years, but to me there's nothing special about the arsenal. His delivery to the plate could leave him well positioned for a role as a LOOGY if starting doesn't work, but as of now, the projection is that of a #5 starter.
Overall Grade; Role: 50; #5 Starter
28. RP Armando Rivero
Date of Birth: 2/1/88 (Age 27)
Height, Weight: 6'4", 190 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Signed as International Free Agent by Chicago Cubs in 2013 ($3.1M signing bonus)
2013 Stats: 26 Games/0 Starts @ Tennessee (AA), 23 Games/0 Starts @ Iowa (AAA): 65.0 IP, 43 H, 28 BB (3.88 BB/9), 100 SO (13.85 SO/9), 6 HR, 17 R, 2.22 ERA, 0.86 GO/AO
Fastball: 70. Rivero's heater is really impressive in person as he cranks it up in the mid-90s with good movement. One of the organization's best.
Breaking Ball: 40. His slurve was even less impressive in person. It's basically worthless, even though it sweeps through the zone. It's very easy to pick up out of his hand.
Changeup: 40. I've only seen a few of the tumbler, but it appears as though he's competent with the offering.
Additional Pitches: N/A
Physical and Other Tools: 60 Command, 50 Durability, 40 Stamina, 70 Risk
Pitching Profile: Rivero's ratings are tricky. His fastball is just superb: big heat, good movement, strong command. His secondary pitches are underwhelming, but the heater is so good that he'll play. If either secondary offering takes a step, this is a serious reliever even with a high-stress delivery.
Red Flags: Secondary pitches. The secondary stuff lagged behind at this time last year; now it lags way behind.
Path to the Majors: He'll compete for a job in spring training although he likely won't arrive until mid-2015.
Overall Projection: Rivero has an excellent floor as his fastball alone gives him the inside track on a 7th inning gig. His strikeout rates are eye-popping as he incredibly topped 2013's 13.35 SO/9 by half a strikeout per nine this year. If the breaker does manage to take a step, he can enter good Marmol territory. Unfortunately, at 27, that's highly unlikely.
Overall Grade; Role: 55; Setup Reliever
29. RP Arodys Vizcaino
Date of Birth: 11/13/90 (Age 24)
Height, Weight: 6'0", 190 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Signed as International Free Agent by New York Yankees in 2007 ($800K signing bonus); Traded with OF Melky Cabrera, RP Mike Dunn, and cash to Atlanta Braves for RP Boone Logan and SP Javier Vazquez in 2009; Traded with RP Jaye Chapman to Chicago Cubs for SP Paul Maholm, OF Reed Johnson, and cash
2014 Stats: 9 Games/0 Starts @ Daytona (A+), 14 Games/0 Starts @ Tennessee (AA), 17 Games/0 Starts @ Iowa (AAA): 41.0 IP, 38 H, 18 BB (3.95 BB/9), 42 SO (9.22 SO/9), 2 HR, 16 R, 3.51 ERA, 1.17 GO/AO
5 Games/0 Starts @ Chicago (MLB): 5.0 IP, 5 H, 3 BB (5.40 BB/9), 4 SO (7.20 SO/9), 1 HR, 3 R, 5.40 ERA, 0.67 GO/AO
Fastball: 65. After his return from injury, Vizcaino's fastball still zooms, but it does so with basically no tail whatsoever. Still, 95-98 is gas.
Breaking Ball: 50. Vizcaino threw a biting, mid-80s slider before his elbow injuries, but it appears as though he has replaced this with a high-70s curveball. The curveball has plenty of movement, but it's not nearly as impressive of a pitch.
Changeup: N/A. From what I can tell and what I saw this spring and summer, Vizcaino is now a two-pitch pitcher.
Additional Pitches: N/A
Physical and Other Tools: 40 Command, 25 Durability, 30 Stamina, 60 Risk
Pitching Profile: Although on the smaller side at just 6'0", Vizcaino's power arsenal can play at the back of any bullpen. Add in years of successful starting experience with low walk rates and plenty of strikeouts, and you've got an overqualified reliever forced there out of health necessity. Unfortunately, his profile has had some of the electricity sapped out of it due to the years of injuries.
Red Flags: Injury and ceiling. It feels bizarre to question Arodys' ceiling, but I have to wonder how high it actually is at this point. He was basically a fastball-only pitcher for a few months last year and the team used him in back-to-back games sparingly, refusing to do so entirely for months. Add in the loss of his changeup, a significantly worse breaking ball, and some command woes and you've got a solid middle reliever who could have been much more.
Path to the Majors: Vizcaino has already made it back, so he'll be fighting for a job this spring. If he doesn't make the roster, he'll be the first man up from Iowa.
Overall Projection: I previously saw Vizcaino as a possible elite closer. That ability is still there, but now it requires some dreaming that it didn't in the past. More likely, he's an 8th inning guy with a few more walks than you'd like and not as many strikeouts as you'd expect given the heat. It's a humbling reminder that surefire careers sometimes get chopped off by injuries.
Overall Grade; Role: 55; 8th inning Reliever
30. RP Corey Black
Date of Birth: 8/4/91 (Age 23)
Height, Weight: 5'11", 175 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Transactions: Drafted 157th overall by New York Yankees in 2012; Traded to Chicago Cubs for OF Alfonso Soriano and cash in 2013
2013 Stats: 26 Games/25 Starts @ Tennessee (AA): 124.1 IP, 100 H, 71 BB (5.14 BB/9), 119 SO (8.61 SO/9), 13 HR, 55 R, 3.47 ERA, 1.13 GO/AO
Fastball: 70. Black's heater is among the best in the system, working 92-96 and featuring big two-plane movement, particularly the tail.
Breaking Ball: 45. It's a slurvy two-plane slider at 84-87 that is relatively easy to spot coming out of this hand.
Changeup: 55. A low-80s pitch with good darting action, his changeup complements his fastball very nicely.
Additional Pitches: Black also features a 55-grade high-70s 12-6 curveball.
Physical and Other Tools: 35 Command, 55 Durability, 35 Stamina, 50 Risk
Pitching Profile: Black's delivery is rather violent, although this is unsurprising given his mid-90s heat from his relatively small frame. His command comes and goes in a style reminiscent of Edwin Jackson: when Black is on, he's a money pitcher. When he's off, a moderately patient hitter can wait for his pitch to drive or saunter down to first after a walk. The latter was alarmingly common in 2014. His fastball is electric though and this will keep him climbing, as well it should. If he sticks in a rotation, he becomes substantially riskier and I'll have greater durability concerns given the frame. As it is, the loss of command this year threatens his ability to even make it in the 'pen.
Red Flags: Size and command. Both are handled above. His size is fine for a reliever, but his command woes are really jeopardizing the whole thing.
Path to the Majors: Black will likely get to start at Iowa in 2015, but I expect that his move to the bullpen will happen during the year. As such, Chicago is on the radar this summer.
Overall Projection: I'm even more convinced now that Black won't be a starter; he's got the raw stuff, but he hasn't harnessed it well enough and the physical concerns are big. He'll spend at least a few years in a big league bullpen, and there's enough stuff here for an important role.
Overall Grade; Role: 45; Middle Reliever
20 More Quick Hits (2014 Age and Final 2013 Level in Parentheses)
31. SP Trevor Clifton (20 - A-): Clifton still has the frame and arm strength to mature into a serious starting pitching prospect, and he completed a decent short season in 2014. There are some injury concerns with his arm and needed jumps with his secondary arsenal, but there's plenty to be excited about here, particularly if Clifton earns a jump to South Bend for 2015. He's a name to watch.
32. 3B Jeimer Candelario (21 - A): I bashed his body last year, questioning his prospect star. It fell apart in 2014. He was completely overwhelmed at Daytona, and actually a bit worse at Kane County than he had been in 2013. There's still enough in the bat that he can make it with good progression, but it got a lot harder to believe in thanks to 2014 with his terrible defense still threatening to destroy the package.
33. SP Tyler Skulina (23 - A+): Skulina did nothing wrong in 2014, overwhelming Midwest League hitters in a strong first full professional season. His trip to Daytona was a disaster, but he's still on track. His massive body (6'5", 255 lbs.) beget command woes that could cause him to fizzle out in the middle levels of the minor leagues, but it's not too difficult to see Skulina growing into a middle relief future given a big fastball/slider combination.
34. CF Matt Szczur (25 - MLB): Szczur is what he is at this point: a speed-focused plus defender with an anemic stick. If he finds the ability to somehow work his way on base, he could have a future something more than a fifth outfielder. More likely, he'll find himself shuttling between Iowa and Chicago for a couple of years when the Cubs need a late-inning sub. The ceiling has dropped to nearly replacement level.
35. C Mark Malave (20 - A-): Malave keeps getting on base (he posted a .348 mark at Boise), but he's also yet to hit a professional home run, something that is quite alarming for such a big-bodied prospect. Perhaps more concerning for Malave, the Cubs poured big resources into new catching prospects in 2014, and he finds himself a distant third behind Schwarber and Caratini on the prospect chart. Malave is reportedly quite raw still, so this is hardly devastating at this point. We'll see if he can fully develop the glove.
36. 2B/OF Logan Watkins (25 - MLB): Watkins, like Szczur, has a very low ceiling, but he's also quite close to it at this point. He has shown a general aptitude for on-base ability in the minors while also displaying enough speed and wherewithal to swipe a good numbers of bags in an efficient manner. The sledding has proved tough in limited action at the MLB level and Watkins faces an extraordinarily difficult path to plate appearances at 2B, but the skills are here for a short utility career.
37. SP Jonathan Martinez (21 - A): Slightly undersized at 6'1", 205 lbs., Martinez was superb after coming over from the Dodgers for Darwin Barney, posting a superb 1.03 WHIP in six starts. Although his strikeout totals have never been particularly impressive, they did improve in 2014, and Martinez finds himself on his way to Myrtle Beach at a young age - he won't turn 21 until the end of June. He's got a chance to rank much higher next year. Regardless, he's an unreal trade haul for Barney.
38. RP Juan Paniagua (25 - A+): Paniagua pitched well enough at Kane County to earn a promotion in 2014, but the wheels really came off at Daytona: over eight appearances, he posted a nearly unfathomable 1.94 WHIP with a decreased strikeout rate and very high home run rate. He was always going to be on a different timeline thanks to his visa issues, but if things don't improve quickly, Paniagua could slip into irrelevance.
39. 3B Christian Villanueva (24 - AA): After beginning the year at AAA, Villanueva got booted back to Tennessee when Kris Bryant's explosion dictated a promotion. Villanueva, like Penalver, features as good of a glove as you'll find. Unfortunately, his bat is comparably weak for a third baseman, and he needs to take another step or two offensively to even hope for a Matt Dominguez-esque future.
40. RP Zoc Rosscup (27 - MLB): Rosscup made 18 mostly dreadful appearances in Chicago last year, as he issued a ton of walks (par for the course) and gave up a hit per inning (abnormal for him). However, the strikeouts remained (14.18 SO/9) and his propensity for them has the ability to keep him relevant for a few years.
41. 2B Gioskar Amaya (22 - A+): The diminutive second sacker continues to get himself on base as his superb .369 OBP at Daytona confirmed. It's unclear just how well he projects defensively and whether he'll ever add any meaningful power to his game at the higher levels, but his walk rates portend a decent future.
42. SP Ryan McNeil (21 - A-): McNeil's road back from Tommy John surgery included eight appearances in Boise where he was absolutely shelled to the tune of a 1.88 WHIP and an 8.44 ERA. No matter, as getting back on the mound was the big accomplishment. McNeil also has a chance to climb this list in a big way in 2015 if he can pitch a full year while he could also fall off completely if he proves the move slowly in his rehabilitation.
43. SP Ivan Pineyro (23 - AA): After a brilliant 2013, 2014 was a disaster for Pineyro as injuries and ineffectiveness combined to make it a terrible year for the 6'1" righty. He is pitching in the Arizona Fall League with the hope of springboarding himself to a productive 2015, but lost years are tough, especially when the prospect status was middling to begin.
44. RP Gerardo Concepcion (23 - A+): Although he's still known primarily for his five-year, $6 million guaranteed contract, Concepcion morphed into a valuable relief option in 2014. He put the exclamation point on his strong season with a great eight-appearance stretch at Daytona to end the year. He still needs more time to refine his arsenal, but it's no longer impossible to imagine him climbing the ladder en route to a real career, even if he becomes a LOOGY.
45. SP Eric Jokisch (25 - MLB): Jokisch was (somewhat) quietly excellent for Iowa this year: 1.76 BB/9, a 3.58 ERA, and a very solid 8.13 SO/9. His initial run in Chicago was also strong, although the home runs emerged a bit more as the batters improved. It's difficult to peg Jokisch's exact role, but it appears likely that he'll find himself as a swing man in the Glendon Rusch mold.
46. SP James Norwood (21 - A-): Norwood had one of the better fastballs in the entire 2014 draft class, and his mechanics are smooth enough that he should command the pitch well going forward. He's a very young collegiate draftee, but his curveball is underwhelming as is his changeup. When there's a fastball to work with, there's always a chance - just ask Brian Schlitter.
47. SS Carlos Penalver (21 - A): Penalver has absolutely no bat at all as his .211/.263/.270 line will likely be the worst to ever appear in this type of article. However, he got on base reasonably well in short-season ball in 2013, so there's a bit of hope for the stick. More importantly, the glove is superb. A glove-only shortstop has very little chance of getting play in north Chicago over the next 15 or so years, but such players do carry some value.
48. RP Tony Zych (24 - AA): Zych was a widely respected fourth round pick in 2011 as a relief-only option that could move quickly. He reached Tennessee in 2012, yet he has now made 112 appearances in AA without reaching Iowa. Despite a solid 2013, the Cubs asked him to repeat the level in 2014, and he struggled mightily. Zych still has a huge, running fastball, but his strikeouts have disappeared and opposing hitters hit .329 off of him this year. He limits walks reasonably well, but he's on very thin ice.
49. RP P.J. Francescon (26 - AA): Francescon is a non-prospect, a 5'11" soon-to-be-26-year-old swingman. Regardless, I've liked what I see every time I've seen him in person, and I continue to feel that way. The stuff is mediocre, but it's not bad. He's a great organizational arm with no ceiling, but he has kept his rates relatively steady even as he has climbed the organizational ladder.
50. SP Erick Leal (20 - A-): Leal has a starter's frame and his arsenal has developed nicely from extremely raw to pretty raw. He has likely earned his way to full-season ball in 2015 where his development will be seriously tested.
Finally, with a handful of graduations impacting the makeup of this list and offering serious hope in Chicago, I'm taking a page out of the Baseball Prospectus book and listing a ranking of the top Cubs personnel 25 and under to provide context for where the top prospects rank compared to the top Major Leaguers.
Top 25 and Under Players
1. 1B Anthony Rizzo (25)
2. SS Addison Russell (21)
3. 3B/COF Kris Bryant (23)
4. SS Javier Baez (22)
5. COF Jorge Soler (23)
6. SS Starlin Castro (25)
7. UTIL Arismendy Alcantara (23)
8. SP Jacob Turner (24)
9. SP Kyle Hendricks (25)
10. SP Jen-Ho Tseng (20)
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