Predictions for the 2015 Chicago Cubs

This may seem like the kind of thing that I should be putting up on Bleed Cubbie Blue, but the reality here is that I intend to do little/no analysis for this post.

 

As Stephen Colbert so eloquently stated, "that's where the truth lies, right down here in the gut." With that premise leading the way, these predictions come from a combination of hundreds of hours spent watching these players, hundreds more spent reading about them, personal viewings, conversations with scouts, and good ol' fashioned gut logic.

 

I did cheat a little bit: I looked at the number of plate appearances each Cubs position group utilized in 2014 to give myself some plate appearance estimates. By group, they were as follows according to Fangraphs:

 

P: 336

C: 665

1B: 747

2B: 1,243

3B: 805

SS: 798

LF: 888

CF: 1,596

RF: 1,110

 

TEAM: 6,102

 

These numbers serve as a nice reminder that, even in 2014, it is still sometimes difficult to accurately assign a player's position in each plate appearance. There should be some variety given that certain players - like Anthony Rizzo - routinely batted higher in the lineup than other players - like Welington Castillo - did. Still, the Cubs simply did not assign twice as many plate appearances to their centerfielders as opposed to the shortstops in 2014.

 

To me, it seems as though the most accurate measure is to take the team's total plate appearances, subtract out the pitchers, and then assign the other eight position groups a roughly equal amount of the 5,766 non-pitcher plate appearances adjusted upward for groups likely to hit high in the order (1B) and downward for groups likely to bat near the bottom (C). I'll use these numbers:

 

C:   675

1B: 750

2B: 725

3B: 725

SS: 725

LF: 725

CF: 800

RF: 725

 

This assigns an additional 84 plate appearances, a very conservative estimate for a team that figures to have a much-improved offense in 2015 compared to 2014. I'm throwing pinch-hitter plate appearances in here. Just live with the estimates.

 

As a disclaimer, I finished the picks for every position group except for the relief pitchers on February 22nd. Some of those picks still make plenty of sense whereas some of them look plain stupid. Such is life.

 

Without further adieu, my picks for the 2015 Chicago Cubs:

 

Catchers

I don't think that Welington Castillo will be on the team on Opening Night, even if it means that the Cubs release him and eat roughly $350,000 to do so (note: this looks dumb, too). That means we're looking at only a pair of recent acquisitions, Miguel Montero and David Ross, to handle the position with Rafael Lopez picking up a few spare plate appearances as needed.

 

Last	First	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	SB	Glove
Montero	Miguel	480	.250	.325	.390	.715	14	0	++
Ross	David	160	.240	.305	.415	.720	6	0	+
Lopez	Rafael	35	.250	.335	.370	.705	1	0	+/-

 

First Basemen

Anthony Rizzo, Anthony Rizzo, and more Anthony Rizzo. Woo-hoo!

 

Last	First	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	SB	Glove
Rizzo	Anthony	735	.275	.375	.525	.900	35	5	+
Olt	Mike	15	.220	.300	.400	.700	1	0	+

 

Second Basemen

Now we get some intrigue. After a couple of relatively-settled spots, we find the wide-open space that is the keystone. It seemed as though this would be Javier Baez's job as recently as October. However, the following months saw increased rumblings about Arismendy Alcantara finding time in the infield, the acquisition of Tommy La Stella as a direct competitor, increased winter ball strikeouts for Baez, and the acquisition of Dexter Fowler to play center field, thus forcing Alcantara squarely into the second base competition. Right?

 

Nah. My gut tells me what it has always told me with Baez: this kid can murder the ball and he's going to play as a result. Will he spend some of his time in Iowa this spring/summer? Quite possibly. But he's going to spend a lot of time on the north side of Chicago.

 

Last	First	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	SB	Glove
Baez	Javier	445	.240	.305	.460	.765	24	10	+
La Stella	Tommy	140	.270	.345	.340	.685	0	1	+/-
Alcantara	Arismendy	125	.260	.310	.445	.755	18	25	+
Russell	Addison	15	.280	.330	.450	.780	3	0	+

 

Third Basemen

Somebody who isn’t Kris Bryant is going to start the year at third base. That’s largely irrelevant as Bryant will come to Pittsburgh or Cincinnati to join the Major League club in late April. And he’s going to be a monster. Whether Mike Olt or Tommy La Stella gets the majority of the time prior to then will be interesting to watch. But this is all about Bryant, even if I think his stay at the hot corner will only last for a year until Addison Russell needs a home.

 

Last	First	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	SB	Glove
Bryant	Kris	560	.270	.380	.535	.915	30	5	-
Baez	Javier	65	.240	.305	.460	.765	24	10	+
La Stella	Tommy	60	.270	.345	.340	.685	0	1	-
Russell	Addison	20	.280	.330	.450	.780	3	0	+
Olt	Mike	20	.220	.300	.400	.700	1	0	+

 

Shortstops

2014 was a big year for Starlin Castro. His horrendous 2013 cast doubts about his future, but he silenced his critics with a rousing 2014 that ended a month early. I think Castro is going to take that next, big step this year.

 

Last	First	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	SB	Glove
Starlin	Castro	700	.305	.355	.455	.810	18	5	-
Baez	Javier	20	.240	.305	.460	.765	24	10	+/-
Russell	Addison	5	.280	.330	.450	.780	3	0	+

 

Left Fielders

I still think that this is Bryant’s long-term home, but in 2015, Chris Coghlan and Chris Denorfia figure to hold down the fort. This is the scariest spot to me, even with a strong spring from Coghlan calming my fears. His bat could be good enough to keep him in the lineup even though his defense may very well be the worst corner outfield defense in the Majors.

 

Last	First	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	SB	Glove
Coghlan	Chris	415	.230	.305	.335	.640	5	5	--
Denorfia	Chris	220	.260	.320	.400	.720	5	5	+
Bryant	Kris	50	.270	.380	.535	.915	30	5	+/-
Fowler	Dexter	40	.285	.380	.445	.825	15	15	+/-

 

Centerfielders

Dexter Fowler was a favorite of mine as a prospect: his speed and athleticism portended of plus defense, his approach was marvelous, and his body suggested that he’d hit for good power. Strangely, the power never really materialized and advanced metrics despise his defensive work in center. Nevertheless, Fowler’s on-base skills will be a welcome sight atop the Cubs lineup. His glove will be very interesting as he could find himself playing on a one-year deal in 2016 or he could find himself the recipient of a qualifying offer with a strong year. It is nice to buy a walk year. You'll notice no team for Junior Lake or Ryan Sweeney. That's not by mistake. I think Sweeney gets flipped in ST/early and Lake spends the whole year in the minors/gets flipped.

 

Last	First	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	SB	Glove
Fowler	Dexter	525	.285	.380	.445	.825	15	15	--
Alcantara	Arismendy	235	.260	.310	.445	.755	18	25	+
Denorfia	Chris	25	.260	.320	.400	.720	5	5	--
Szczur	Matt	15	.240	.300	.320	.620	0	5	+

 

Right Fielders

This is decidedly the low pick on Soler. He could be a freakin’ monster. That’s the hope and the skills are there. I’m excited to watch him.

 

Last	First	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	SB	Glove
Soler	Jorge	590	.255	.320	.440	.760	25	2	-
Alcantara	Arismendy	80	.260	.310	.445	.755	18	25	+
Denorfia	Chris	55	.260	.320	.400	.720	5	5	+

 

If you'd prefer to see the position players broken down by player with this TOTAL plate appearances listed, here you go:

 

Last	First	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	SB	Glove
Rizzo	Anthony	735	.275	.375	.525	.900	35	5	+
Starlin	Castro	700	.305	.355	.455	.810	18	5	-
Bryant	Kris	610	.270	.380	.535	.915	30	5	-
Soler	Jorge	590	.255	.320	.440	.760	25	2	-
Fowler	Dexter	565	.285	.380	.445	.825	15	15	--
Baez	Javier	530	.240	.305	.460	.765	24	10	+
Montero	Miguel	480	.250	.325	.390	.715	14	0	++
Alcantara	Arismendy	440	.260	.310	.445	.755	18	25	+
Coghlan	Chris	415	.230	.305	.335	.640	5	5	--
Denorfia	Chris	300	.260	.320	.400	.720	5	5	+
La Stella	Tommy	200	.270	.345	.340	.685	0	1	+/-
Ross	David	160	.240	.305	.415	.720	6	0	+
Russell	Addison	40	.280	.330	.450	.780	3	0	+
Lopez	Rafael	35	.250	.335	.370	.705	1	0	+/-
Olt	Mike	35	.220	.300	.400	.700	1	0	+
Szczur	Matt	15	.240	.300	.320	.620	0	5	+

 

Starting Pitchers

Well, this sure is a different group than from the one that started 2014. Hopefully two or three of these aren’t getting spun off during the 2015 season. There should be enough talent here to make about 160 good starts. These statistics are only for these pitchers in their roles as starters.

 

Last	First	Games	Starts	IP	H	BB	WHIP	SO	HR	ERA
Lester	Jon	33	33	210	190	63	1.20	182	19	3.75
Wada	Tsuyoshi	30	23	130	130	36	1.28	113	15	4.00
Arrieta	Jake	27	27	175	156	55	1.21	198	13	3.20
Hammel	Jason	25	25	150	146	47	1.29	125	20	4.15
Hendricks	Kyle	28	28	170	165	38	1.19	110	15	3.80
Jackson	Edwin	35	14	80	83	29	1.40	69	9	4.20
Turner	Jacob	30	12	65	75	22	1.49	43	7	4.40

 

Relief Pitchers

Unlike with the starters, this group features a whole lot of the same names as 2014. And that’s definitely a good thing, particularly the young right-handed power arms. The lefty reliever jobs are on much shakier territory. If the club makes an in-season deal in 2015, I suspect that it will be for a southpaw in the ‘pen. These statistics are only for these pitchers in their roles as relievers.

 

Last	First	Games	Starts	IP	H	BB	WHIP	SO	HR	ERA
Grimm	Justin	60	N/A	70	66	21	1.24	68	7	3.55
Rondon	Hector	70	N/A	65	50	15	1.00	67	3	1.85
Strop	Pedro	65	N/A	65	47	28	1.15	79	5	3.30
Motte	Jason	60	N/A	60	53	19	1.20	47	8	3.85
Ramirez	Neil	60	N/A	55	50	22	1.31	79	5	2.75
Jackson	Edwin	21	N/A	30	32	10	1.40	30	3	3.30
Turner	Jacob	18	N/A	25	22	10	1.28	21	4	3.70
Coke	Phil	35	N/A	25	28	9	1.48	18	3	4.25
Rosscup	Zac	25	N/A	20	19	11	1.50	29	2	3.10
Schlitter	Brian	20	N/A	20	26	7	1.65	11	1	5.20
Wada	Tsuyoshi	7	N/A	15	13	5	1.20	14	2	3.50
Parker	Blake	10	N/A	10	14	2	1.60	11	2	5.50
Jokisch	Eric	10	N/A	10	11	3	1.40	7	2	4.80
Beeler	Dallas	5	N/A	5	5	2	1.40	3	0	3.20
Rivero	Armando	5	N/A	5	4	2	1.20	8	1	2.25