Friday, April 3, 2015

Predictions for the 2015 Chicago Cubs

15 Picks (00096891).DOC

This may seem like the kind of thing that I should be putting up on Bleed Cubbie Blue, but the reality here is that I intend to do little/no analysis for this post.

 

As Stephen Colbert so eloquently stated, "that's where the truth lies, right down here in the gut." With that premise leading the way, these predictions come from a combination of hundreds of hours spent watching these players, hundreds more spent reading about them, personal viewings, conversations with scouts, and good ol' fashioned gut logic.

 

I did cheat a little bit: I looked at the number of plate appearances each Cubs position group utilized in 2014 to give myself some plate appearance estimates. By group, they were as follows according to Fangraphs:

 

P: 336

C: 665

1B: 747

2B: 1,243

3B: 805

SS: 798

LF: 888

CF: 1,596

RF: 1,110

 

TEAM: 6,102

 

These numbers serve as a nice reminder that, even in 2014, it is still sometimes difficult to accurately assign a player's position in each plate appearance. There should be some variety given that certain players - like Anthony Rizzo - routinely batted higher in the lineup than other players - like Welington Castillo - did. Still, the Cubs simply did not assign twice as many plate appearances to their centerfielders as opposed to the shortstops in 2014.

 

To me, it seems as though the most accurate measure is to take the team's total plate appearances, subtract out the pitchers, and then assign the other eight position groups a roughly equal amount of the 5,766 non-pitcher plate appearances adjusted upward for groups likely to hit high in the order (1B) and downward for groups likely to bat near the bottom (C). I'll use these numbers:

 

C:   675

1B: 750

2B: 725

3B: 725

SS: 725

LF: 725

CF: 800

RF: 725

 

This assigns an additional 84 plate appearances, a very conservative estimate for a team that figures to have a much-improved offense in 2015 compared to 2014. I'm throwing pinch-hitter plate appearances in here. Just live with the estimates.

 

As a disclaimer, I finished the picks for every position group except for the relief pitchers on February 22nd. Some of those picks still make plenty of sense whereas some of them look plain stupid. Such is life.

 

Without further adieu, my picks for the 2015 Chicago Cubs:

 

Catchers

I don't think that Welington Castillo will be on the team on Opening Night, even if it means that the Cubs release him and eat roughly $350,000 to do so (note: this looks dumb, too). That means we're looking at only a pair of recent acquisitions, Miguel Montero and David Ross, to handle the position with Rafael Lopez picking up a few spare plate appearances as needed.

 

Last

First

PA

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

HR

SB

Glove

Montero

Miguel

480

.250

.325

.390

.715

14

0

++

Ross

David

160

.240

.305

.415

.720

6

0

+

Lopez

Rafael

35

.250

.335

.370

.705

1

0

+/-

 

First Basemen

Anthony Rizzo, Anthony Rizzo, and more Anthony Rizzo. Woo-hoo!

 

Last

First

PA

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

HR

SB

Glove

Rizzo

Anthony

735

.275

.375

.525

.900

35

5

+

Olt

Mike

15

.220

.300

.400

.700

1

0

+

 

Second Basemen

Now we get some intrigue. After a couple of relatively-settled spots, we find the wide-open space that is the keystone. It seemed as though this would be Javier Baez's job as recently as October. However, the following months saw increased rumblings about Arismendy Alcantara finding time in the infield, the acquisition of Tommy La Stella as a direct competitor, increased winter ball strikeouts for Baez, and the acquisition of Dexter Fowler to play center field, thus forcing Alcantara squarely into the second base competition. Right?

 

Nah. My gut tells me what it has always told me with Baez: this kid can murder the ball and he's going to play as a result. Will he spend some of his time in Iowa this spring/summer? Quite possibly. But he's going to spend a lot of time on the north side of Chicago.

 

Last

First

PA

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

HR

SB

Glove

Baez

Javier

445

.240

.305

.460

.765

24

10

+

La Stella

Tommy

140

.270

.345

.340

.685

0

1

+/-

Alcantara

Arismendy

125

.260

.310

.445

.755

18

25

+

Russell

Addison

15

.280

.330

.450

.780

3

0

+

 

Third Basemen

Somebody who isn’t Kris Bryant is going to start the year at third base. That’s largely irrelevant as Bryant will come to Pittsburgh or Cincinnati to join the Major League club in late April. And he’s going to be a monster. Whether Mike Olt or Tommy La Stella gets the majority of the time prior to then will be interesting to watch. But this is all about Bryant, even if I think his stay at the hot corner will only last for a year until Addison Russell needs a home.

 

Last

First

PA

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

HR

SB

Glove

Bryant

Kris

560

.270

.380

.535

.915

30

5

-

Baez

Javier

65

.240

.305

.460

.765

24

10

+

La Stella

Tommy

60

.270

.345

.340

.685

0

1

-

Russell

Addison

20

.280

.330

.450

.780

3

0

+

Olt

Mike

20

.220

.300

.400

.700

1

0

+

 

Shortstops

2014 was a big year for Starlin Castro. His horrendous 2013 cast doubts about his future, but he silenced his critics with a rousing 2014 that ended a month early. I think Castro is going to take that next, big step this year.

 

Last

First

PA

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

HR

SB

Glove

Starlin

Castro

700

.305

.355

.455

.810

18

5

-

Baez

Javier

20

.240

.305

.460

.765

24

10

+/-

Russell

Addison

5

.280

.330

.450

.780

3

0

+

 

Left Fielders

I still think that this is Bryant’s long-term home, but in 2015, Chris Coghlan and Chris Denorfia figure to hold down the fort. This is the scariest spot to me, even with a strong spring from Coghlan calming my fears. His bat could be good enough to keep him in the lineup even though his defense may very well be the worst corner outfield defense in the Majors.

 

Last

First

PA

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

HR

SB

Glove

Coghlan

Chris

415

.230

.305

.335

.640

5

5

--

Denorfia

Chris

220

.260

.320

.400

.720

5

5

+

Bryant

Kris

50

.270

.380

.535

.915

30

5

+/-

Fowler

Dexter

40

.285

.380

.445

.825

15

15

+/-


 

Centerfielders

Dexter Fowler was a favorite of mine as a prospect: his speed and athleticism portended of plus defense, his approach was marvelous, and his body suggested that he’d hit for good power. Strangely, the power never really materialized and advanced metrics despise his defensive work in center. Nevertheless, Fowler’s on-base skills will be a welcome sight atop the Cubs lineup. His glove will be very interesting as he could find himself playing on a one-year deal in 2016 or he could find himself the recipient of a qualifying offer with a strong year. It is nice to buy a walk year. You'll notice no team for Junior Lake or Ryan Sweeney. That's not by mistake. I think Sweeney gets flipped in ST/early and Lake spends the whole year in the minors/gets flipped.

 

Last

First

PA

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

HR

SB

Glove

Fowler

Dexter

525

.285

.380

.445

.825

15

15

--

Alcantara

Arismendy

235

.260

.310

.445

.755

18

25

+

Denorfia

Chris

25

.260

.320

.400

.720

5

5

--

Szczur

Matt

15

.240

.300

.320

.620

0

5

+

 

Right Fielders

This is decidedly the low pick on Soler. He could be a freakin’ monster. That’s the hope and the skills are there. I’m excited to watch him.

 

Last

First

PA

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

HR

SB

Glove

Soler

Jorge

590

.255

.320

.440

.760

25

2

-

Alcantara

Arismendy

80

.260

.310

.445

.755

18

25

+

Denorfia

Chris

55

.260

.320

.400

.720

5

5

+

 

If you'd prefer to see the position players broken down by player with this TOTAL plate appearances listed, here you go:

 

Last

First

PA

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

HR

SB

Glove

Rizzo

Anthony

735

.275

.375

.525

.900

35

5

+

Starlin

Castro

700

.305

.355

.455

.810

18

5

-

Bryant

Kris

610

.270

.380

.535

.915

30

5

-

Soler

Jorge

590

.255

.320

.440

.760

25

2

-

Fowler

Dexter

565

.285

.380

.445

.825

15

15

--

Baez

Javier

530

.240

.305

.460

.765

24

10

+

Montero

Miguel

480

.250

.325

.390

.715

14

0

++

Alcantara

Arismendy

440

.260

.310

.445

.755

18

25

+

Coghlan

Chris

415

.230

.305

.335

.640

5

5

--

Denorfia

Chris

300

.260

.320

.400

.720

5

5

+

La Stella

Tommy

200

.270

.345

.340

.685

0

1

+/-

Ross

David

160

.240

.305

.415

.720

6

0

+

Russell

Addison

40

.280

.330

.450

.780

3

0

+

Lopez

Rafael

35

.250

.335

.370

.705

1

0

+/-

Olt

Mike

35

.220

.300

.400

.700

1

0

+

Szczur

Matt

15

.240

.300

.320

.620

0

5

+

 

Starting Pitchers

Well, this sure is a different group than from the one that started 2014. Hopefully two or three of these aren’t getting spun off during the 2015 season. There should be enough talent here to make about 160 good starts. These statistics are only for these pitchers in their roles as starters.

 

Last

First

Games

Starts

IP

H

BB

WHIP

SO

HR

ERA

Lester

Jon

33

33

210

190

63

1.20

182

19

3.75

Wada

Tsuyoshi

30

23

130

130

36

1.28

113

15

4.00

Arrieta

Jake

27

27

175

156

55

1.21

198

13

3.20

Hammel

Jason

25

25

150

146

47

1.29

125

20

4.15

Hendricks

Kyle

28

28

170

165

38

1.19

110

15

3.80

Jackson

Edwin

35

14

80

83

29

1.40

69

9

4.20

Turner

Jacob

30

12

65

75

22

1.49

43

7

4.40

 

Relief Pitchers

Unlike with the starters, this group features a whole lot of the same names as 2014. And that’s definitely a good thing, particularly the young right-handed power arms. The lefty reliever jobs are on much shakier territory. If the club makes an in-season deal in 2015, I suspect that it will be for a southpaw in the ‘pen. These statistics are only for these pitchers in their roles as relievers.

 

Last

First

Games

Starts

IP

H

BB

WHIP

SO

HR

ERA

Grimm

Justin

60

N/A

70

66

21

1.24

68

7

3.55

Rondon

Hector

70

N/A

65

50

15

1.00

67

3

1.85

Strop

Pedro

65

N/A

65

47

28

1.15

79

5

3.30

Motte

Jason

60

N/A

60

53

19

1.20

47

8

3.85

Ramirez

Neil

60

N/A

55

50

22

1.31

79

5

2.75

Jackson

Edwin

21

N/A

30

32

10

1.40

30

3

3.30

Turner

Jacob

18

N/A

25

22

10

1.28

21

4

3.70

Coke

Phil

35

N/A

25

28

9

1.48

18

3

4.25

Rosscup

Zac

25

N/A

20

19

11

1.50

29

2

3.10

Schlitter

Brian

20

N/A

20

26

7

1.65

11

1

5.20

Wada

Tsuyoshi

7

N/A

15

13

5

1.20

14

2

3.50

Parker

Blake

10

N/A

10

14

2

1.60

11

2

5.50

Jokisch

Eric

10

N/A

10

11

3

1.40

7

2

4.80

Beeler

Dallas

5

N/A

5

5

2

1.40

3

0

3.20

Rivero

Armando

5

N/A

5

4

2

1.20

8

1

2.25

 

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