I'd like to make a final preference list for the Cubs at #9. To add some intrigue, I'll start by looking at the six players I specifically omitted from my February list, address those who were in my top 15 in February but have since slipped out, toss out some comments on other top-20 prospects who don't make my list, and then, finally, rank my top 16 options for the Cubs at #9.
The "Please No" Six
My February post linked above included six players who, for one reason or another, I didn't want the Cubs to draft. How does that list hold up now? Let's see.
Player: RHP Walker Buehler (Vanderbilt)
What I Said Then: Buehler is C.J. Edwards 2.0: big stuff, 160 lbs. body. Unfortunately for Buehler, size cannot be taught.
What I Say Now: This piece from Kiley McDaniel did a great job of portraying that the industry-wide bias against short right-handed pitchers with elite stuff is largely bogus. Unfortunately, Buehler's problem isn't really his height (he's probably 6'1"); it's still the weight as 160 pounds just doesn't ever cut it for a starter. I'm more open to Buehler now than I was in February, but I'll still be disappointed if he is the pick.
Player: LHP Nathan Kirby (Virginia)
What I Said Then: Kirby has a three-pitch mix as a college lefty. He should be in my wheelhouse. But I don't see the ceiling. I think he's Travis Wood if it all works out and that's not top-ten worthy.
What I Say Now: Kirby is way down the board for me now. With a lat injury and command woes, I'll pass.
Player: SS Dansby Swanson (Vanderbilt)
What I Said Then: He's just never going to hit enough. He's in the Deven Merrero mold of collegiate shortstops who have the glove but not nearly enough bat.
What I Say Now: Well now, this gets a little more interesting. Swanson is in the conversation for one of the top two picks and he's seen as a lock to go in the top five at this point on the heels of a college season where he just kept on hitting. I still don't see the power and I like bats more than gloves. I can still find a dozen players I'd rather have than Swanson. But I'm in a tiny minority at this point. The glove is excellent and he's a real shortstop, not just a guy with a chance to stick there. That's a real plus. And credit where credit is due: Swanson has 14 homers on the year. He's hit for tons of power in college.
Player: RHP Ashe Russell (High School (Indiana))
What I Said Then: Whippy mechanics. It's a high-stress delivery; he's going to get hurt, even if the stuff is enticing.
What I Say Now: Russell's ceiling isn't extreme enough to justify the risk, though the possibility of the Cubs rolling three Russells deep with Ashe, Addison, and the immortal James would be fun.
Player: 2B/SS Ian Happ (Cincinnati)
What I Said Then: Not nearly athletic enough for an athlete-first profile. He might hit .300 someday, but he's never going to hit for power and it's tough to see an even average up-the-middle glove profile.
What I Say Now: Happ is the poster child for the Epstein/Hoyer/McLeod regime when it comes to the amateur draft. He's a good athlete with tons of production in college. So why don't I like him? He doesn't look fast enough to me and I think he's going to end up in an outfield corner. If he's a LF, he's not going to be much of an asset without big power, something Happ just doesn't have. I'll be very disappointed if Happ is the pick, though I'm preparing for the possibility.
Player: SS Alex Bregman (LSU)
What I Said Then: I should like him a lot. His swing is really simple, something that should help him make contact as a professional. I just have such a difficult time buying that (1) he's really going to hit for power, and (2) that he's actually a shortstop.
What I Say Now: I like Bregman more now than I did in February, though he's still not among the elite to me. I think he'll be a real defensive asset at second base and he'll get on base enough to be a productive big leaguer even with only 10-homer power. Fine player, but nothing special.
Players from the February Top 15 Who Lost Their Spots
This section needs no further introduction beyond the title, so let's get right to it:
Player: RHP Riley Ferrell (TCU)
February Rank: 15th
Why He's Out: Ferrell has a couple of problems. He doesn't even throw a third pitch, much less an effective one. But the much larger problem with Ferrell is that he has walked 18 batters in just 28.1 innings thus far in 2015. Even with an absurdly high strikeout rate, that kind of problem for a college closer is a killer for me. He might be available in the second round, where I'd be plenty happy to take a shot on his big arm.
Player: RHP Kyle Funkhouser (Louisville)
February Rank: 9th
Why He's Out: As higher ceilings have emerged, Funkhouser's relatively low ceiling in my mind has kicked him down the board. To make matters worse, Funkhouser's velocity has evaporated and his
Player: LHP Justin Hooper (High School (California))
February Rank: 6th
Why He's Out: I still like Hooper plenty, probably more than most. He's a boom or bust prospect with the "bust" outcome looking much more likely. But he's probably still in the top 20 on my list. The arm is so huge.
Other Top Prospects Not on My List
Again, a self-explanatory grouping, so away we go...
Player: CF Garrett Whitley (High School (New York))
Kiley McDaniel's Rank: 15th
Why He's Out: Whitley looks like a good athlete with the skills to be a star. But he's incredibly raw right now. Being so raw, it's difficult to put too terribly much stock in the athleticism given that he's already given away thousands of plate appearances to his more southerly compadres. He may have the highest ceiling of any position player in this class, but he probably has a less than 1% chance of reaching it. In the second round? Sign me up. But not in the top ten.
Player: LF Trenton Clark (High School (Texas))
Kiley McDaniel's Rank: 14th
Why He's Out: Clark's ideal future is as the left-handed version of Hunter Pence. He has a strange grip on the bat and a bizarre swing plane that has nonetheless produced strong results. He does appear to run reasonably well, so I could see myself being interested in Clark if someone can convince me that he could plausibly be a top-of-the-order bat with 12-15 homer pop. Still, he'd be on the top list if he profiled in center.
Player: C Tyler Stephenson (High School (Georgia))
Kiley McDaniel's Rank: 12th
Why He's Out: How to put this diplomatically? Stephenson is not a great athlete. Stephenson is a poor athlete who already looks like a catcher. He's going to be a negative runner. I actually like his swing plenty and he uses all fields well, especially for a prepster. But there's just so little athleticism that unless he's the perfect receiver/framer/thrower, he's not bringing much to the table. Too low a floor for me.
Player: 3B Cornelius Randolph (High School (Georgia))
Kiley McDaniel's Rank: 10th
Why He's Out: Randolph has good hands and it looks like he should be able to hit reasonably well. I don't like the amount of herky-jerky movement he has, but big lefties with good hands have a future. Unfortunately, I don't see the athleticism for anything other than a corner outfield profile defensively. You need a massive bat to fill that role, not a good one.
Player: OF Andrew Benintendi (Arkansas)
Kiley McDaniel's Rank: 8th
Why He's Out: Benintendi is another guy that I think I'm supposed to love who I just don't believe in. He looks plenty athletic, but it seems to me that his ascent from a second-round fourth outfielder prospect to possible top-ten pick was much too quick. I don't see much power in the swing, yet his 18 homers this year directly contracts that. He also drew 42 walks while striking out just 30 times. The numbers are marvelous and he should be able to play a solid center field. He's probably 16th on my list. I just don't buy the swing enough.
Player: OF Kyle Tucker (High School (Florida))
Kiley McDaniel's Rank: 4th
Why He's Out: Everyone loves the swing because he looks so smooth and simple with a lefty stroke, but I just don't like it. There must be some kind of stupid bias in play for me here. I've even watched his home runs and his deep doubles, but I don't like Tucker's approach at the plate. I don't see him responding well to having to change his swing patch when he faces advanced pitching. If you're drafting a guy because his current swing is pretty more so than because of his premium athleticism, you want that swing to translate. I don't think Tucker's will and that increases the risk exponentially.
The Final Top 16
Yet another section that needs no further introduction. Let's get right to it.
16. RHP James Kaprielian
Height/Weight: 6'4"/200 lbs.
Date of Birth: 3/2/94 (21)
School: UCLA
What I Like: The curveball. It's only a high-80s offering, but he showed both a 12-6 hammer and a slurvier breaker that gave hitters problems. One killer pitch is nice. The righty has a nice mix with a 90 mph fastball, a low-80s slider, and a seldom-used mid-80s changeup. The fastball velocity jumped a bit this spring as I had hoped, pushing Kaprielian up this list a bit.
What I Don't Like: Such a herky-jerky delivery. It's hard to believe that Kaprielian will ever have a truly smooth delivery, something that seriously threatens his command profile. He arches back in his windup, something that may result in command woes. But that's not even the biggest concern. The biggest concern is the fastball. Kaprielian is big enough that you'd expect more velocity than 90-91. If he's only sitting in that range, he probably drops down this list a good bit. Since he jumped up into 92-93 territory, he got a boost. But there's still concern about the legitimacy of the velocity.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 95%
15. RHP Beau Burrows
Height/Weight: 6'1"/200 lbs.
Date of Birth: Unknown
School: High School (Texas)
What I Like: His fastball/curveball combination is excellent. The fastball sits 93-94, though it is relatively straight. The curveball is the more impressive offering, a 12-6 hammer at 78-80 that he threw confidently to both righties and lefties. He occasionally threw a third pitch that I couldn't quite decipher, sitting between 83 and 86 with some downward movement. I'd believe that it was a two-seam fastball, a splitter, or a changeup. Regardless, the pitch moved well.
What I Don't Like: If I had more confidence in Burrows' frame, he'd rank higher on this list as well. He's big enough to pitch, but I'm not sure that he's big enough to stick as a starter. Fueling this concern is that Burrows generates a lot of his velocity from a rock-back in the same manner as Kaprielian. As a result, with a runner on first, Burrows loses a few tickes on his fastball. There's plenty to work with here, though the package is still pretty raw.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 95%
14. RHP Phil Bickford
Height/Weight: 6'4"/200 lbs.
Date of Birth: 7/10/95 (19)
School: Southern Nevada Junior College
What I Like: Bickford's fastball sits in a good spot, comfortably at 93 and routinely at 95. The pitch doesn't move much, but that's the right kind of velocity. I like his 79-81 slurve: the pitch has tight rotation and solid deceptiveness.
What I Don't Like: I'm not sure if Bickford even throws a changeup. I don't think that passing on the Blue Jays to attend Cal-State Fullerton and now SNJC will hurt him all that much, though it's possible that his development will be at least somewhat stunted as a result. Bickford isn't my favorite, but the red flags are relatively minor...except for that mysteriously failed physical with Toronto.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 95%
13. C Chris Betts
Height/Weight: 6'2"/220 lbs.
Date of Birth: 3/10/97 (18)
School: High School (California)
What I Like: In order to really like Betts, you have to believe that he's a catcher. Fortunately, while that is often difficult with premium bats that have played catcher up the pipeline - as was the case with Kyle Schwarber and Alex Jackson at the top of the 2014 first round - Betts is a true catcher with a huge arm. It remains to be seen how well he develops the non-throwing portion of his game, but framing, receiving, and game-calling all require experience. Betts has an offensive game that figures to be plenty adequate with a compact stroke that should yield double-digit home runs and at least an average hit tool. He has a strong, all-around profile. He's a baseball mutt by all accounts, something that doesn't hurt.
What I Don't Like: If Betts can't stick at catcher, he's a first baseman. If he's a first baseman, he's much less exciting given the 5+ projection of his power and hit tools. The defensive projection is essential and I just don't have enough information to slap a surefire plus defensive catcher tag on him.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 99%
12. RHP Dillon Tate
Height/Weight: 6'2"/185 lbs.
Date of Birth: 5/11/94 (21)
School: UC Santa Barbara
What I Like: A huge sinking fastball and a similarly huge devastating slider. Yum. His body should be able to hold a full workload despite having never pitched more than 100 innings before.
What I Don't Like: The changeup isn't close and the curveball is a throwaway offering. He needs a third pitch to make it. The floor should be that of a high-leverage reliever. I don't like how much Tate reaches back in his delivery as I worry about the impact on his command.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 25%
11. LHP Tyler Jay
Height/Weight: 6'1"/175 lbs.
Date of Birth: 4/19/94 (21)
School: Illinois
What I Like: A strong fastball, an excellent curveball, and a useful slider. I have absolutely no doubt that Jay could be an excellent closer in about two years. The fastball-curveball combination is that strong. I like the mechanics plenty.
What I Don't Like: If you're a lefty, there's one pitch you absolutely have to have to survive in the rotation and that's the changeup. Unfortunately, the changeup is Jay's weakest offering. That's a devastating development for me.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 25%
10. RHP Cody Ponce
Height/Weight: 6'5"/235 lbs.
Date of Birth: 4/25/94 (21)
School: Cal Poly Pomona
What I Like: Big body, big stuff, great delivery. His consistently mid-90s tailing fastball is going to keep him employed for a while, and his slider is a big mover in the mid-to-high-80s, similar to Jake Arrieta's slider/cutter. He toys around with a high-70s curveball that's primarily a get-me-over pitch but can show some devastating break, and I really like what I saw from his low-80s power curveball as he threw it all over the place to lefties. Perhaps this sequence provides the best indication of what Ponce can be. Ponce also enjoyed a tremendous summer in the Cape Cod League, suggesting that his stuff plays well even against elite competition.
What I Don't Like: I just don't like that he's at Cal Poly Pomona. It makes no sense. There may be some lingering ill-will toward Division II prospects from the Hayden Simpson experience - be that fair or not. Ponce apparently worked in the mid-80s coming out of high school, so that likely played a big role in his college choice. Ponce is the kind of guy where the advanced scouts make their money. If he's just a late-blooming monster, gobble him up. If there's some terrifying red flag, stay away. (I'm going with the late-blooming monster option.) His shoulder injury this spring combined with disappointing stuff this year suggests that it may be the former, unfortunately.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 99%
9. RHP Michael Matuella
Height/Weight: 6'7"/220 lbs.
Date of Birth: 6/3/94 (21)
School: Duke
What I Like: Matuella is a monster, yet despite his huge frame, he commands his pitches well. That's a rare skill from such a big-bodied hurler. Those pitches? Mid-90s heater, mid-80s changeup, high-70s curveball, and mid-80s slider. Boom. That's it. The fastball has the kind of tail and dive that everyone loves.
What I Don't Like: Given the above description, Matuella would figure to be right there at the top of this list Unfortunately, there's a dreaded drawback: injury. A back injury cost Matuella a month in 2014, exacerbating fears over the durability of his large body and then the butcher arrived with devastating news this spring as Matuella underwent Tommy John surgery. I'd still be ecstatic if the Cubs nabbed him. The arm is that good.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 99%
8. OF Nick Plummer
Height/Weight: 5'11"/190 lbs.
Date of Birth: Unknown
School: High School (Michigan)
What I Like: Michigan! I like that he's from Michigan. OK, beyond just his hometown, I love that Plummer generates big lefty power with a simple, smooth stroke. His swing and finish remind me a lot of Chase Utley's. He's got a bat that should hit for good average and great power. It's tougher for me to know about his discipline and approach, though guys who spend time on the summer and prospect circuits tend to be at least passable here.
What I Don't Like: The defensive profile. It's tough to get a good read on Plummer's athleticism in videos showcasing his swing, but given the body type and his stride, it seems like he's most likely a corner outfielder. That puts a ton of pressure on the bat to play up. Perhaps there's enough athleticism there for him to spend some time in centerfield, but if his defensive profile is as uninspiring as it seems like it might be - Billy McKinney, anyone? - Plummer will have a tough time being an impact player. I also don't like that I can't find more information about his defensive profile.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 75%
7. RHP Mike Nikorak
Height/Weight: 6'5"/205 lbs.
Date of Birth: 9/16/96 (18)
School: High School (Pennsylvania)
What I Like: Nikorak has a quality fastball. He works comfortably in the low-90s with the ability to pump out plenty of offerings in the 93-94 territory while sometimes slipping to 89. Still, the fastball moves well and has enough command right now to grade out as a plus pitch. I wasn't much of a fan of his curveball, a mid-70s slurvy breaker. However, his high-70s changeup fell off of the table in extremely encouraging fashion. I'd much rather have a high schooler with a strong changeup as that offering tends to be more difficult to learn. His delivery is plenty smooth.
What I Don't Like: The breaking ball just didn't do it for me. I think he'll need to scrap it as a professional and start from scratch. That's not encouraging. Nevertheless, on the whole, the blemishes are relatively minor for a player with such a good ceiling. Nikorak had a chance to climb this spring, but his velocity fluctuations instead caused him to drop a bit. That's not great.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 99%
6. LHP Kolby Allard
Height/Weight: 6'0"/170 lbs.
Date of Birth: 8/13/97 (17)
School: High School (California)
What I Like: Low-90s heat with command, a low-80s curve with plenty of polish, and the room to grow another inch or two before he maxes out his frame. Allard is the closest thing to Aiken that I have seen in roughly nine years of following the draft. I absolutely adore the ceiling.
What I Don't Like: While he resembles Aiken in many ways, Allard lacks (1) the changeup, and (2) the size to fully own the comparison. His mechanics are a bit choppier as well. Unfortunately, the much bigger issue is his back. Allard didn't just miss the entire spring with a back injury: he missed the entire spring with the same back injury he had suffered earlier in high school. That's terrifying. Without access to the medicals, I had to drop Allard a bit.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 99%
5. OF Daz Cameron
Height/Weight: 6'1"/190 lbs.
Date of Birth: 1/15/97 (18)
School: High School (Georgia)
What I Like: The pedigree (Dazmon is Mike Cameron's son), the body, and the all-around game. Cameron should be a plus glove man like his dad, but his offensive profile offers even a bit more to dream on with a smooth stroke. Currently it looks like Cameron would be a 10-15 home run player, but he physique offers enough to see 20-25 homer power at his peak. If he mirrors his dad that well, he's an extremely useful player.
What I Don't Like: I like the swing; I don't love the swing. It's a bit hitchy and a bit long for my taste. If the swing stays long and Cameron strikes out a lot, the profile moves from impact to useful. While it's still nice to get useful players in the top ten, I have a feeling that I'd be left wanting more. While it matters a ton that he should absolutely stick in center, I wish there was more ceiling realization to this point.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 50%
4. RHP Jon Harris
Height/Weight: 6'4"/190 lbs.
Date of Birth: 10/15/93 (21)
School: Missouri St.
What I Like: A legitimate four-pitch mix. Harris has a solid, low-90s fastball with some sink, two breaking pitches (slider, curveball) that should be average offerings, and my favorite pitch: a genuine tumbling changeup. He's got the build to last. I initially had him 12th on this list, but I moved him way up after writing about him.
What I Don't Like: The breaking pitches don't do much for me at present. He won't need both, but I'd like to see the slider either kick up in velocity from 83 to 85+ or add some bite.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 75%
3. RHP Carson Fulmer
Height/Weight: 5'11"/195 lbs.
Date of Birth: 10/15/93 (21)
School: Vanderbilt
What I Like: The stuff is huge, particularly the fastball. Fulmer sits at 94-95, even out of the stretch. His power curveball is devastating on right-handed hitters and he uses a two-seam diving fastball at 87-88 to keep lefties off balance. There's plenty of arsenal and a full season of starting to show that he can repeat his delivery just fine.
What I Don't Like: Despite the article linked above from Kiley McDaniel, Fulmer's size is still a bit alarming. On top of that, his mechanics are terrifying and unsurprisingly resulted in a bevy of walks this year. There's tons of ceiling, but there are plenty of areas where Fulmer could go wrong.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 15%
2. LHP Brady Aiken
Height/Weight: 6'3"/210 lbs.
Date of Birth: 8/16/96 (18)
School: Prep School (Florida)
What I Like: Everything I liked about Aiken leading up to the 2014 draft. He's got the body, the arsenal, the mindset, and the pedigree to be a lefty ace. Those are valued about as highly as any asset in the game (consider that Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Jon Lester, Clayton Kershaw, and C.C. Sabathia all enjoy average annual values of at least $23M on their contracts). Aiken's value is through the roof, even with the Astros debacle in his rearview mirror. Aiken's mechanics have only the tiniest amount of unnecessary movement. Accordingly, he commands a mid-70s 12-6 curveball, a very good low-80s changeup, and a massive, mid-90s fastball with a hair of tail. Aiken's heater could be the best single pitch of any starting pitcher in the Majors in 2020. Additionally, even with a lost year, Aiken is reasonably young as he was drafted by Houston in 2014 as a 17-year-old. He's still on the proper developmental timeline.
What I Don't Like: While he's still on the right timeline, nobody gets better by going through the ordeal that the Astros put Aiken through last year and spending the subsequent year in purgatory. I don't like that he's essentially going to waste a developmental year, even if he's got the approach to put 2015 to good use. And obviously all of that was before Aiken actually had to undergo Tommy John surgery. Aiken's medicals are slowly making the rounds and while it's encouraging that nothing truly awful has leaked as of yet, it's tough not to be concerned about his UCL. All of that said: I'd take Aiken in a heartbeat. I still think that he's the best talent in this class, even though he's downgraded a hair for his injury history.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 95%
1. SS Brendan Rodgers
Height/Weight: 6'0"/195 lbs.
Date of Birth: 8/9/96 (18)
School: High School (Florida)
What I Like: Rodgers has plenty of skills that function in much the same way as Addison Russell's. Though he doesn't figure to run particularly well, the bat, power, arm, and glove are all plus from a shortstop profile. That's still about as desirable as it gets.
What I Don't Like: I don't love what Rodgers does with his hands to generate his power. I'm worried that the length of his pre-pitch load and the moving pieces in his swing will lead to strikeout problems down the road. Yes, I still like Javier Baez and Russell. Perhaps this makes me a hypocrite and I should just get over myself, embrace Rodgers, and be done with it. And guess what? I'm finally there.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: <1%
Parting Thoughts
Even in a down year for the draft, there's oodles of talent to be had. As the above shows, I have a strong preference for the arms in this class though Rodgers, Cameron, and Plummer would all leave me feeling plenty happy. No matter what, good scouting and development should add another impact level talent to the system.
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