Last year, I wrote a similar post on draft night. Despite the fact that the Bears were picking third overall, the actual outcome -- trading up to #2 overall for Mitch Trubisky -- wasn't on my list of possibilities. Had it been, it would have rated in the bottom third of 15 possible outcomes.
This year, the range of possibilities is enormous. The difference from picking eighth and picking third encompasses so many additional outcomes as to make touching on all of them nearly impossible. So, instead, I'll focus on the most likely scenarios, preemptively grading them so as to avoid claims of hot-take grading.
But first, a few general rules. For every scenario listed below, trading down/adding extra picks would make each scenario move up a few spots. For example, drafting versatile Virginia Tech LB Tremaine Edmunds at #8 is currently the eighth ranked outcome (it's also the top-ranked likely scenario). But if Pace trades down a spot or three and still nabs Edmunds, that's clearly preferable. Similarly, trading up/surrendering extra picks to get a player always moves that choice down on this list.
1. A whole bunch of teams love the quarterbacks in this class, and at least three of Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield, and Lamar Jackson go in the top four picks, creating a mad scramble among teams to get into the top ten in order to secure their quarterback of the future. The Patriots find this to be an ideal time to purchase Tom Brady's successor but they want to hold onto at least one 2018 first rounder in order to help their quarterback, so Pace nabs three New England selections: #31 overall, #43 overall, and their 2019 first-round pick. The Bears would surrender 1,400 points on the Jimmy Johnson chart in exchange for 1,070 2018 points and at least 590 2019 points, before any discounting. That's a nice haul and perhaps the Patriots are willing to pay such a premium in order to keep that 23rd overall pick with which to help Brady this year. On the Chase Stuart chart, the Bears would surrender 21.4 points but acquire a staggering 35.8 at a minimum. NFL trades tend to follow the Johnson chart, more or less, while the Stuart chart conveys the actual value of extra draft picks. Teams should almost always seek to acquire extra picks. Trading a top-ten pick for three top-50 picks certainly qualifies. Pace likely only makes a deal like this one because of his extra job security by virtue of his recent extension.
2. Almost everything as set out above, except it is the Bills that make the move to #8, surrendering either #12 and #65 (1,465 JJ; 26.8 CS), or #22, #56, and #65 (1,415 JJ; 31.9 CS). At #12, the Bears still get LB Edmunds or Georgia ILB Roquan Smith. At #22, the Bears get OLB Harold Landry or OLB Marcus Davenport.
3. Almost everything as set out above, except it is the Cardinals that make the move to #8, surrendering #15 and #47 (1,480 JJ; 27.5). At #15, the Bears still get LB Edmunds, ILB Smith, OLB Landry, OLB Davenport, or Notre Dame OT Mike McGlinchy.
4. Chaos ensues at the top of the board, inexplicably landing OLB Bradley Chubb in Chicago at #8.
5. Chaos ensues at the top of the board, inexplicably landing RB Saquon Barkley in Chicago at #8. Pace then flips RB Jordan Howard for a third rounder (this scenario slides up or down depending on the Howard compensation).
6. The most chaotic scenario: Cleveland takes their new franchise quarterback at #1 overall, but after the Giants pass on a QB in favor of someone else (likely Barkley), Cleveland is berated with phone calls at #4. They make a deal with Buffalo (#12), acquiring extra picks in the process. The Browns are floored when OT McGlinchy is on the board at #8, so they send #12 and #64 (1,470 JJ; 26.9 CS) to the Bears for #8. At #12, the hope remains that LB Edmunds or ILB Smith is around.
7. Chaos ensues at the top of the board, inexplicably landing RB Barkley in Chicago at #8. Pace confusingly holds onto RB Howard, leaving the roster overloaded with Barkley, Howard, and Tarik Cohen.
8. Pace lands LB Edmunds at #8. This is still a very good outcome. Edmunds is an exceptional athlete who should be able to be a force both in coverage and run defense as he grows into his role as a pass rusher from the outside. I love his prospect status, even if I have a slight concern that he's the next Amobi Okoye (a guy who's easy to dream on as a 19-year-old in the draft, but who peaks as a solid starter and take a few years to get there).
9. Pace lands ILB Smith at #8. This is still a good outcome even though I prefer Edmunds to Smith.
10. The most chaotic scenario, part deux: Cleveland takes their new franchise quarterback at #1 overall, but after the Giants pass on a QB in favor of someone else (likely Barkley), Cleveland is berated with phone calls at #4. They make a deal with Baltimore (#16), acquiring extra picks in the process. The Browns are floored when OT McGlinchy is on the board at #8, so they send #16 and #35 (1,550 JJ; 28.9 CS) to the Bears for #8 and #105 (1,484 JJ; 26.4 CS). I don't love wheeling and dealing without adding at least one extra pick in the first four rounds, but there's value in this deal. At #16, the hopes are probably OLB Landry, OLB Davenport, WR Calvin Ridley, CB Denzel Ward, or DB Minkah Fitzpatrick.
11. Pace lands Ohio State CB Ward at #8. This is an OK outcome. Ward is a good corner prospect. He's not huge (5'11", 183 lbs.) but he runs like a NFL corner and has strong ball skills with the footwork to pull it all together. I wouldn't love this pick but I'd like it.
12. Pace lands Alabama DB Fitzpatrick at #8. This is also an OK outcome, which surprises me. Some of Fitzpatrick's value comes from his ability to play in the slot, a spot where he'd figure to get most of his early time with the Bears. I don't like the idea of drafting a safety so highly given the presence of strong young duo Adrian Amos and Eddie Jackson, but Fitzpatrick has enough versatility to play 800+ snaps. That makes his selection OK, even if it isn't tremendous value. Side note: I'm squeamish about Alabama defensive backs thanks to Dee Milliner. I thought he'd be a star, he tested wonderfully, and he flamed out of the league in three years anyway. Man, the draft is tough.
13. Pace lands Florida State S Derwin James at #8. I like James better as a prospect than Fitzpatrick, but I sense that James is a true safety, despite his apparent scheme versatility in college. This is both high for a safety and doesn't fill a need. I wouldn't like this outcome all that much.
14. Pace lands Iowa CB Joshua Jackson at #8. This is much too high for Jackson, who has good size but failed to quiet concerns about his speed at the Combine (though his Pro Day was better). Big bodies who don't run that well --> second day picks, not top-ten picks.
15. Pace picks Alabama WR Ridley, SMU WR Courtland Sutton, or Maryland WR D.J. Moore at #8. This would sting. Letting Cam Meredith walk is over and done with, though the move gnaws at me even though I don't have access to Meredith's medicals. Drafting the solid-but-unspectacular looking Ridley in the top-ten would pour salt in the wound; ditto Sutton and Moore.
16. Pace lands seemingly everybody's favorite fit as G Quenton Nelson falls to #8. I dislike this move in general: the Bears had an above-average starter in-house, let him go to clear cap space (presumably) that they didn't use, then invest a premium pick in his replacement. Gross. Sure, Harry Hiestand is happy, but the team isn't much better off, if at all. This is much too high for a guard anyway. The supposed "can't miss" guard prospects of the last 20 years have all overwhelmingly disappointed.
17. Pace panics in his desire for a linebacker with Edmunds and Smith both surprisingly off the board and reaches in a big way for Boise State ILB Leighton Vander Esch. Vander Esch shouldn't have to carry the burden of Shea McClellin, but he does, at least a little bit in my mind. Vander Esch plays faster than he tested, has a good build, and looks like he'll be a plus pass defender in the NFL. I'm not sure about his run defense, but he'd be a viable target in a trade down scenario.
18. Pace settles on Nelson...who gets snapped up from under his nose at #6/#7. Pace panics. Like, really panics, and drafts Georgia G Isaiah Wynn after 15 spots too soon. Ugh.
19. Pace falls in love with somebody other than G Nelson, trading up to #6 or #7 to get his man. This likely means Edmunds, Fitzpatrick, James, or Ward.
20. Pace falls in love with Chubb or Barkley, trading up into the top-five to get his man.
21. Pace falls in love with G Nelson, trading up to #6 or #7 to get his man.
22. Pace falls in love with G Nelson, trading up into the top-five to get his man.
***The above doesn't include the true top scenario for the Bears, which is obviously that Notre Dame WR Equanimeous St. Brown slips to the fourth round where Pace gobbles him up, adding a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver at a muted draft cost, simply because Brandon Wimbush couldn't throw.
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