2018 NFL Predictions

Last year, my picks were...not good. So let's try it again!

NFC West
San Francisco (10-6) - Loaded defensive front + Jimmy G. That's plenty.
Los Angeles Rams (10-6) - Can they repeat their 2017 success? Yup. D is still insanely talented.
Seattle (6-10) - The defensive attrition over the years finally catches up to them.
Arizona (3-13) - They've bled plenty of talent and aged, then they intentionally signed Sam Bradford.

NFC South
Carolina (11-5) - I remain a big believer in Cam and see a strong defense under Ron Rivera.
Atlanta (9-7) - They're really talented, but that Super Bowl collapse will break them.
New Orleans (8-8) - Brees and a solid D give them a high floor. I don't see the ceiling.
Tampa Bay (5-11) - Things are getting ugly in Tampa. They may have to rebuild again.

NFC East
Philadelphia (13-3) - Alshon. All Alshon. And lots of other great players, too.
New York Giants (8-8) - Saquon is amazing. The rest of the roster is ho-hum.
Dallas (6-10) - There's talent on this roster, but the receivers stink and the O-Line is already hurt.
Washington (4-12) - They definitely got worse and possibly a whole lot worse.

NFC North
Green Bay (13-3) - They're due for a monster year and Rodgers is healthy.
Minnesota (10-6) - The Vikings are crazy talented. They'll survive the expectations.
Chicago (6-10) - The Bears are mostly talented, but the abject lack of pass rush dooms them.
Detroit (6-10) - This roster just doesn't do anything for me, save for Matt Stafford.

AFC West
Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) - The defensive is even better now. Plenty of skill power on offense.
Denver (8-8) - The Von Miller-Bradley Chubb combo gives them a very high floor.
Oakland (7-9) - Plenty of talent to win big. I'm not a Gruden believer in 2018 though.
Kansas City (6-10) - I don't buy Patrick Mahomes.

AFC South
Tennessee (10-6) - They're ready for a real leap, one I thought they'd take last year.
Jacksonville (10-6) - There's sooo much defensive talent. But Bortles-Moncrief? WTF?
Houston (9-7) - Watt+Clowney+Watson. They're gonna be seriously fun.
Indianapolis (4-12) - Even if Luck is healthy, they're just not good.

AFC East
New England (13-3) - The Pats might not be as great as usual, but the East stinks.
Miami (7-9) - This is probably their peak for this iteration of the team.
New York Jets (6-10) - They'll be better but also breaking in a rookie QB.
Buffalo (5-11) - They had a QB last year, then they punted him. Huh?

AFC North
Pittsburgh (11-5) - Despite a tough schedule, this is a very talented team.
Cleveland (9-7) - Seriously. Their defensive is stellar and now they're loaded with QB talent.
Baltimore (8-8) - Still not enough skill talent, but there's enough here for a solid year.
Cincinnati (4-12) - Finally, it's Marvin's last year.

NFC Playoff Tree
#5 Minnesota over #4 San Francisco
#6 Los Angeles Rams over #3 Carolina

#1 Green Bay over #6 Los Angeles Rams
#2 Philadelphia over #5 Minnesota

#1 Green Bay over #2 Philadelphia

AFC Playoff Tree
#4 Tennessee over #5 Jacksonville
#3 Pittsburgh over #6 Cleveland

#1 New England over #4 Tennessee
#3 Pittsburgh over #2 Los Angeles Chargers

#1 New England over #3 Pittsburgh

Super Bowl
#1 New England over #1 Green Bay

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Some bonus notes on the Bears in lieu of a full, separate piece:

• I'm genuinely excited for this year's team. That was tougher to come by during the John Fox era.
• The offensive skill talent is real and exciting. I'm most excited to see Allen Robinson in a Bears uniform after watching him at OLSM, Penn State, and with the Jaguars.
• The offensive line can be above-average is everyone stays healthy and James Daniels impresses from Day One. Unfortunately, the tackles are shaky and the depth is non-existent. This will likely be a problem this year.
• I love the top four on the defensive line with starting nose Eddie Goldman and three primary ends Akiem Hicks, Jonathan Bullard, and Roy Robertson-Harris. I like the Bilal Nichols pick. But if Hicks goes down, the Bears are screwed, in large part because...
• The outside linebackers are going to be bad and might be horrendous. An injury-prone, wildly undersized Leonard Floyd. An injury-prone, underwhelming Aaron Lynch. Journeyman Sam Acho. Perhaps injury-prone sixth-rounder Kylie Fitts or subpar roster fodder players Isaiah Irving or Kasim Edebali fills out the roster. It doesn't really matter. The Broncos rode the fearsome combination of Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware to the Super Bowl. They wisely added Bradley Chubb in the draft this year. They appreciate that the 3-4 only works with dominant OLB production. The Bears are going to have terrible OLB production. Comfortable quarterbacks tend to succeed a whole lot.
• I cannot believe that Marcus Cooper is on the NFL. It's idiotic that he's back on the Bears.
• The safety group, led by Adrian Amos and Eddie Jackson with Deon Bush and DeAndre Houston-Carson backing them up, might be the best looking Bears safety position group in decades.
• The lack of valuable draft picks as a result of the Trubisky trade is particularly obvious when examining the missing depth on the offensive line, at outside linebacker, and at defensive end.
• The Bears desperately need a huge breakout from a recent late draftee or undrafted youngster like Jordan Morgan, Fitts, or Kevin Toliver.