Of course, the draft comes on the heels of free agency. GM Ryan Poles has undertaken most of his team building activities already. In advance of next week's Draft, here's my thoughts on the Bears' non-minimum contracts forays into the free agency period followed by Draft scenarios evaluated from best-case to worst-case scenario.
FREE AGENCY
First, a reminder: there's no grade inflation here. A C is a solid, average move. A B is a good move. An A is a truly exceptional move. A D is bad. An F is a failure. Let's go!
Bears trade #144 to Buffalo for OG Ryan Bates
I love Ryan Bates. I love his tummy rub celebration with Trace McSorley that he did numerous times after protecting Trace's blind side for years. I love that he carved out a niche in the NFL. I even love that Poles decided to make a play for Bates as an RFA during his initial offseason as GM. I like the Bates contract in the Bears' hands with two unguaranteed years at $4M apiece.
I do not, however, love trading #144 for a player who figures to be a reserve for a team with a rookie QB. Poles needs to hoard picks...yet here he is trading away yet another pick. Bates was a cut candidate in Buffalo too, so while his contract provides good value in this market, the trade negates the net value coming to the Bears and then some.
Grade: D
Bears sign CB Jaylon Johnson to a 4-year, $76M deal
Johnson hasn't been the most consistent CB in the NFL during his four years as a pro, and he comes with a history of back injuries. That said, he possesses true top-of-the-league skills and he turned 24 this month. Keeping a guy like Johnson around is a slam dunk choice, even with a functional three-year guarantee.
Grade: B
Bears sign S Kevin Byard to a 2-year, $15M deal
This move I like, too. Functionally, this is a one-year, $8M deal for the 31-year-old former All Pro. Byard's play slipped last year, but he was still a real starter and looks like an ideal bridge candidate for the Bears. Ideally, Poles will draft a successor FS in the 3rd or 4th round of the draft, giving the rookie a chance to come along slowly while Byard holds the job.
He's no star, but he looks like a solid citizen at an affordable, market rate in the non-Xavier McKinney FS market.
Grade: B-
Bears sign RB D'Andre Swift to a 3-year, $24.5M deal
Woof. Not a good place to start the tampering period.
Pouring money into middle class free agents is a dicey proposition to begin with. Pouring money into RBs is a terrible idea. Pouring money into a middle class RB? Big yikes. A multi-year (two) guarantee to a middle class RB in free agency? There's no saving grace here.
Swift is 1.5 years younger than D'Onta Foreman. Beyond that, I can't tell the difference here, except that Swift got $15.3M guaranteed and Foreman got a veteran minimum deal.
Grade: F
Bears sign TE Gerald Everett to a 2-year, $12M deal
Love this. Everett presents an ideal TE2. The fact that he came on an extremely affordable one-year, $6.5M deal makes this move tremendous. The depth chart at TE is non-existent behind Cole Kmet, and rookie TEs are classically slow to adjust to life in the NFL. Everett should serve as a nice security blanket for Caleb Williams. He brings so much value to this roster.
Grade: A
Bears sign S Jonathan Owens to a 2-year, $4.75M deal
This kind of deal doesn't hurt in a big way...but there's no value. Owens isn't good. Owens is 28 and has never received a contract above the league minimum, yet Poles offered him a functional $2.6M guarantee. Yuck. Hopefully Owens has to fight to make the roster, which would make $1.5M of dead money left behind even worse. There's no upside and a bit of downside. Just find the street free agent instead.
Grade: F
Bears sign LB Amen Ogbongbemiga to a 1-year, $2.1M deal
It's good to sign special teamers. Cool.
Grade: C
Bears sign C Coleman Shelton to a 1-year, $3.5M deal
I'm not a big fan of Shelton. His ceiling is low and his floor is, too. That said, Shelton comes with meaningful starting experience, he's cheap, and he offers protection in case Poles can't find a starting C in the Draft.
Shelton being the starting C in September would be bad. But he'd be better than Lucas Patrick or Cody Whitehair.
Grade: C-
Bears trade QB Justin Fields to Pittsburgh for a 2025 6th round pick
Barf. Barf barf barf. Much electronic ink has been spilled on the Fields trade. I'm fine with Poles trading Fields given his desire to reset at QB and his belief that Fields can't be the guy to get the Bears over the hump. OK.
But there has to be value. And there's no value here. This trade values Fields as less than Mac Jones. That's a joke. If this was the market rate, I would've preferred to see Poles announce that Fields was the starter for 2024, that the Bears would bring Williams along slowly, and then trade Fields only after another team (i) struck out on their search for a new QB, or (ii) had a QB suffer an injury during the season. A future 6th is basically nothing and the condition is likely to bump this pick into a 4th. If it does, the trade will look even worse as a future 4th for a starting NFL QB is a truly horrendous deal.
I appreciate the locker room dynamic disaster of keeping the very-popular Fields in house while beginning the transition to Williams.
The grade reflects Poles' aggregate handling of the Fields situation.
Grade: F (if there was a lower grade, this move would receive that)
Bears trade #110 to Los Angeles Chargers for WR Keenan Allen
Yes please! Allen is 31 and heading for free agency this offseason...which means that Poles acquired a second #1 WR entering the final contract year of his career for just $23.1M this year. Again: yes please! The free agent WR class was a disaster and the Draft is risky. Allen is not risky. This is a great acquisition, limited in value only by the fact that the Bears need to allocate $23.1M of their cap to a 31-year-old.
Grade: A-
FREE AGENCY REVIEW
The individual moves were graded above, but giving a comprehensive view of free agency requires considering moves made and unmade.
In advance of free agency, Poles had a few essential tasks to complete, as follows:
- Acquire a new, good starting C.
- Find a DE2 to start opposite Montez Sweat.
- Replace Eddie Jackson at FS.
- Find a starting-caliber WR.
Uh oh. It's clear that Connor Williams' ACL tear torpedoed his market, but quality starting C options remained. Poles passed. OK.
The Bears' current DE2 is a misplaced DT (DeMarcus Walker). The current DE3 is probably minimum-salary vet Jake Martin. Not good!
The Byard signing makes me happy enough and the Allen trade is a big win.
Unfortunately, the Bears still have a number of needs, and Poles has continued his habit of trading picks for players on expiring deals. As a result, my dreams for having a cache of picks on hand to fill in the roster around Williams are gone. The cap space is gone. The end results are good in ways but they're below expectations thus far. The grade does get boosted by the Everett signing and Allen trade.
FREE AGENCY PERIOD GRADE: D+
DRAFT
Moving on to this week's excitement, there are innumerable possibilities for how things can proceed. I infamously warned against the nightmare that was trading up for Mitchell Trubisky...but I also hoped to avoid Patrick Mahomes. Can't win 'em all!
The Bears will be drafting Caleb Williams 1st overall next week. Awesome! For all of the ways the Bears have tried to hit at QB, they've never drafted the surefire #1 overall pick who has been a superstar QB prospect since high school, produced incredibly in college, and then found himself as the unanimous 1st overall pick.
Of course, the draft continues after that. So here's a look at what could happen with the Bears' second pick at #9.
- Poles trades way down from #9, acquiring valuable additional picks (current 2nd(s) and/or 3rd(s), and/or future 1st/2nd/3rds) and then gets to draft a tasty player that slips. This is the best scenario because it always is. This most commonly means trading with a team in the #12 to #22 range, yet still coming away with one of the following players, in order of preference:
- Florida State DE Jared Verse
- UCLA DE Laiatu Latu
- Alabama DE Dallas Turner
- Illinois DT Jer'Zhan Newton
- Texas DT Byron Murphy
- Notre Dame LT Joe Alt
- Georgia TE Brock Bowers
- My current favorite scenario: the Bears trade #9 to Philadelphia for #22, #50, and #53. At #50 and #53, the Bears get two of the following:
- Penn State DE Chop Robinson
- South Carolina WR Xavier Legette
- Georgia WR Ladd McConkey
- West Virginia C Zach Frazier
- Minnesota S Tyler Nubin
- Arizona OT Jordan Morgan
- Yale OT Kiran Amegadjie
- Texas TE Ja'Tavion Sanders
- Penn State DE Adisa Isaac
- Florida WR Ricky Pearsall
- Washington State S Jaden Hicks
- Western Kentucky WR Malachi Corley
- I adore Corley, but this does feel a bit high for him.
- Washington WR Jalen McMillan
- Washington WR Ja'Lynn Polk
- Alabama DE Chris Braswell
- Florida State DT Braden Fiske
- Poles trades way down from #9, acquiring valuable additional picks (current 2nd(s) and/or 3rd(s), and/or future 1st/2nd/3rds) and then gets to draft a good player who fits in that range. This is the same as scenario #1, except that the drafted player fits in the drop zone. Players like this:
- Oregon C Jackson Powers-Johnson
- LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr.
- Oregon State OT Taliese Fuaga
- Penn State OT Olu Fashanu
- Washington OT Troy Fautanu
- Alabama OT JC Latham
- Oregon WR Troy Franklin
- Either of Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. or LSU WR Malik Nabers slips to #9. The Bears should turn in their card in a heartbeat. Poles would receive an A+ for that pick.
- Washington WR Rome Odunze slips to #9. Just a tick behind the option above. Odunze would still be awesome. Poles would receive an A for that pick.
- Poles trades down from #9 but only just a bit, acquiring maybe one decent pick, and then gets to draft a stud who slipped. Getting an extra pick and a stud? Yes please!
- Poles trades down from #9 but only just a bit, acquiring maybe one decent pick, and then gets to draft a good player who fits in that range. Still better to get the extra pick than not.
- Poles trades up a tiny bit from #9 (to #7 or #6, probably) at an inexplicably small cost to get one of Harrison, Nabers, or Odunze. Trading up is a terrible idea made much worse when you only have four total picks. If Poles is able to nab one of these WRs for a dramatically lower price than expected -- say #9 and #122 to move up to #7 -- I won't lose sleep over it. Not too much, anyway.
- Poles trades down from #9, but strikes out on the Bears' best targets. The explanation here elucidates the value of trading down. If Poles trades down to the mid-teens and finds that all of Verse, Latu, Turner, Newton, and Murphy are gone, how does it look? Fine! Not ideal. But fine! This could look something like this: Poles trades #9 to Seattle for #16, #81, a 2025 2nd, and a 2025 3rd. The value is good (not elite). The depth chart gets more legs. This is a fine outcome.
- Poles freaks out, stays at #9, and drafts the fourth-best WR. I'm not sure if this is Thomas or Franklin. In either case, the value here is a bummer.
- Poles stays at #9 to draft a CB. Iowa's Cooper DeJean and Alabama's Terrion Arnold are both great prospects. But the Bears have plowed so many assets into the CB room in recent years that it would be irresponsible to allocate even more to that room. At least he wouldn't pay a premium to do so.
- Poles trades way up to get his man. This is the Pace method. Poles has already employed it with some regularity (looking at you, Chase Claypool, Sweat, Bates, Allen). Trading down from #1 last year yielded one of the best trades in NFL history. Please don't trade up, Ryan. The cost of getting to #5 or higher will surely be akin to a 1st. The Bears simply cannot afford such a move.
- Poles trades up to do something inexplicable. This means trading a juicy pick -- like a 2nd or even more -- to move up for an OT or, even worse, a CB.
There are admittedly scenarios I haven't even considered, like drafting a different QB, not drafting a QB at all, or trading 2025 picks to add another 2024 1st. My thoughts on trading lots of draft capital to get a little draft capital have been made clear over the years. No need to discuss further here.
Guys I Like in the 2nd Round if Poles is Able to Get a 2nd
This is extremely hypothetical right now. But here's the list of guys I like:
- Penn State DE Chop Robinson
- Chop could very easily come off the board in the second half of the 1st round. If so, good for him!
- South Carolina WR Xavier Legette
- I loooooove Legette. He looks exactly like DK Metcalf.
- Oregon C Jackson Powers-Johnson
- Minnesota S Tyler Nubin
- Arizona OT Jordan Morgan
- Oregon WR Troy Franklin
- West Virginia C Zach Frazier
- Minnesota S Tyler Nubin
- Yale OT Kiran Amegadjie
- Amegadjie knocked my socks off early in the Draft process and only got more attractive from there.
- Georgia WR Ladd McConkey
- Iowa State CB T.J. Tampa
- Texas TE Ja'Tavion Sanders
- Penn State DE Adisa Isaac
- Florida WR Ricky Pearsall
- Washington State S Jaden Hicks
- Western Kentucky WR Malachi Corley
- I adore Corley, but this does feel a bit high for him.
- Michigan WR Roman Wilson
- Washington WR Jalen McMillan
- Washington WR Ja'Lynn Polk
- Alabama DE Chris Braswell
- Florida State DT Braden Fiske
- Michigan DT Kris Jenkins
This list requires some explanation. Namely: I like Tampa a lot...but he's a terrible value play for the Bears. I'd way rather have the Bears draft Sanders, Isaac, Pearsall, etc. than Tampa, even though I think Tampa is better.
Guys I DON'T Like in the 2nd Round if Poles is Able to Get a 2nd
Of course, I don't like everyone. In fact, there are some guys that would drive me nuts in the 2nd. Here's my least of guys to avoid, starting with my least favorite targets:
- Any QB or LB
- Michigan CB Mike Sainristil
- Texas WR Xavier Worthy
- Texas WR Adonai Mitchell
- Georgia S Javon Bullard
- Alabama CB Kool-Aid McKinstry
Guys I Like at #75
Lots of good targets here. Here we go:
- Western Kentucky WR Malachi Corley
- Kansas DE Austin Booker
- South Dakota State G Mason McCormick
- North Carolina WR Devontez Walker
- UConn G Christian Haynes
- Clemson DE Xavier Thomas
- Western Michigan DE Marshawn Kneeland
- Houston OT Patrick Paul
- Georgia C Sedrick Van Pran
- Alabama WR Jermaine Burton
- Florida State WR Johnny Wilson
- USC S Calen Bullock
- He's very slight, but if he can add 10 lbs., he can be a star given his speed.
- Oregon DT Brandon Dorlus
- Clemson DT Ruke Orhorhoro
- Tennessee RB Jaylen Wright
- Florida State RB Trey Benson
- Houston Christian DE Jalyx Hunt
- Kansas State G Cooper Beebe
Guys I Like at #122
Finally, targets in the 4th:
- Kansas State TE Ben Sinnott
- Kansas G Dominick Puni
- Utah S Cole Bishop
- Ohio State DT Michael Hall Jr.
- USC WR Brenden Rice
- Wisconsin C Tanor Bortolini
- Miami DT Leonard Taylor
- Penn State TE Theo Johnson
If I wasn't a Penn State fan, Theo Johnson would surely be much higher on this list...but I am a Penn State fan, so I've seen Theo play a ton of football. His athleticism is amazing. His production is mediocre. Despite his athletic profile, he struggles to make anyone miss and his hands are a tick below where they should be.
With all of the above in mind, I ran my last mock draft that will make it into this space and yielded a marvelous outcome. Enjoy!
Would I have preferred at DT, FS, another DE, another WR, or a TE at #112? Yes, yes I would have. But I'm not passing on Trey Benson if he makes it that far. Benson will kick D'Andre Swift to the bench within a year and a half, and that's a good outcome. Trading Benson also enables the Bears to move on from now #4 RB Khalil Herbert, recouping the 4th round pick used on Benson for 2025.
While this draft isn't perfect, it's difficult to argue with the talent infusion despite only five new players joining the squad. The 2025 draft class has a chance to be special with the following picks:
1st (CHI)
2nd (CAR)
2nd (PIT)
2nd (CHI)
3rd (LV)
3rd (CHI)
4th (TEN)
4th (CHI)
5th (LV)
5th (CHI)
6th (PIT)
6th (CHI)
The 53-man roster is as follows:
QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, Brett Rypien
RB (5): D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, Trey Benson, Travis Homer, Khari Blasingame
WR (6): DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Xavier Legette, Tyler Scott, Velus Jones, Collin Johnson
TE (4): Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett, Stephen Carlson, ____________
OT (3): Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Kiran Amegadjie
OG (4): Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, Ryan Bates, Matt Pryor
C (1): Coleman Shelton
DE (5): Montez Sweat, Jared Verse, DeMarcus Walker, Jacob Martin, Dominique Robinson
DT (4): Gervon Dexter, Andrew Billings, Zacch Pickens, Byron Cowart
ILB (2): Tremaine Edmunds, Noah Sewell
OLB (3): T.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Amen Ogbongbemiga
CB (6): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Kyler Gordon, Terrell Smith, Jaylon Jones, Greg Stroman
S (4): Jaquan Brisker, Kevin Byard, Jonathan Owens, Elijah Hicks
SP (3): Cairo Santos, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales
That teams still has some holes. The DT rotation would look a lot better with one more body. The S room feels like it has a band aid but no real solution next to Brisker. The WR group is a body short unless Velus develops out of nowhere.
And yet...what an improvement! This draft represents a concerted effort to give Matt Eberflus the thing he most desperately needs on defense -- a strong option at DE2 opposite Sweat -- while otherwise allocating all of the club's assets to surrounding Williams and putting him on a path to success.
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EDIT (11:05am on 4/25/2024): I can't believe I missed this scenario in the drafts. In between #8 and #9, we should have this: Poles stays at #9 and drafts one of the players listed in scenario #1. Done.
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