The Nail Is In the Matt Eberflus Coffin, But Outside of the Eberflus Family, Who Cares?

As my brother and I sat in Soldier Field last Sunday with the Bears' season on life support, something amazing happened: facing a 3rd and 19, budding star rookie QB Caleb Williams ad-libbed a 16-yard dart to WR Rome Odunze to set up a very manageable 4th and 3, which Williams then converted with another gorgeous throw to Odunze. One easy out to Keenan Allen later and Williams had done the unthinkable: he led a comeback against the unsurmountable force that is the Green Bay Packers, formerly the club's biggest rival. I turned to my brother, wrapped my arm around him, and told him that there was a world where this is the beginning of a wild turn in the Matt Eberflus story. Alas, it was not to be...

...but not all is lost, Bears fans! In fact, the Bears are finally in an idyllic spot with their quarterback and, just as importantly, their failure of a head coach has finally failed enough that there's no plausible way to keep him. While it was fairly obvious to numerous Bears fans that Flus should've been fired last January, there's no longer a decision to be made this January: Flus will be gone, uncoupling Williams from his floundering coach. In fact, if the Bears were a more competent organization, Flus wouldn't make it home from Detroit on Thursday afternoon. But the Halas/McCaskey family has never fired a coach during a season; it's hard to have hope that they'll start now.

The reason for keeping Flus appears to be continuity, though I struggle to see the value in continuing to fail. The reasons to fire Flus are...well, they're too voluminous to list. A few that jump out:

1. Flus hired Shane Waldron as OC. I liked the Waldron hiring seeing what I could see from the outside, but his tenure was an unmitigated disaster that got him fired two weeks. Only two NFL OCs have been fired this year: Waldron and Luke Getsy, the other OC hired by Eberflus. Good grief. Through two weeks of OC Thomas Brown, the offense in general and Williams specifically look dramatically better.
2. Flus is wildly conservative despite routinely coaching as an underdog. This was clearest last week when Flus decided to sit on the ball with 30+ seconds remaining in order to try a 46-yard field goal...in Chicago...in November...with a kicker who always kicks low line drives. It was an unforgiveable error that speaks to Flus' illogical conservatism and general approach to make decisions governed by fear of what could go wrong instead of confidence about what could go right. Add it all up and he's 5-18 in one-score games. No other current NFL head coach is under .400, but Flus is coming in strong at .217.
3. The team quit after the Washington Hail Mary. The Arizona game that followed was embarrassing. More on that below.
4. The most damning issue, even worse than those listed above: the Matt Eberflus defense stinks. There are two key injuries with budding star (and personal favorite) S Jaquan Brisker and NT Andrew Billings both presumably out for the season, but the unit is still about as healthy as an NFL defense can be at midseason. This is Flus's third season at the helm with incredible resources poured into that side of the ball. The results?
1. After forcing a pair of punts from the Cardinals to start that game, the Bears allowed three touchdown drives in the last 16 minutes of the first half to let that game get out of hand.
2. Needing to right the ship the following week back at home against the woeful Patriots, the defense allowed five scoring drives -- admittedly only one that reached the endzone -- in a game where the offense no-showed. That marked just the second time in 33 games since Thanksgiving 2022 that the New England offense generated five scores.
3. On life support the following week against the dreaded Packers, Thomas Brown's offense enjoyed a successful day of ball control, and the Flus defense responded by shutting down Green Bay once...and allowing the Packers to reach at least the Chicago 5 on their five other possessions.
4. That brings us to today, where Minnesota doubled Green Bay's output with 12 possessions. Minnesota only reached the 5 or farther four times. That's huge improvement, right? Technically, sure, but that overlooks the following possessions:
1. A field goal drive that reached the 8.
2. A field goal drive that reached the 7.
3. A field goal drive that reached the 9.
4. Two other possessions that crossed midfield.

The pass rush is non-existent, yet Flus refuses to send numbers in key spots. The results are as expected.

It seems that the defensive shortcomings started to weigh on Williams, especially in dreadful showings against Arizona and New England. It's part of what makes his explosive outings against Green Bay and Minnesota since so much more impressive.

Also speaking to the incredible nature of Williams' explosion? The complete lack of a rushing attack to take some weight off of his shoulders.

I'm surrounded by Lions fans who get to enjoy the NFL's best offensive line with a pair of plus backs. They'd probably lose their lunch if their running backs turned in these four consecutive games as has been the case for D'Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson (keep in mind that this includes a 39-yard touchdown from Swift against Green Bay):

1. 19 carries for 64 yards @ Arizona
2. 17 carries for 55 yards v. New England
3. 24 carries for 104 yards v. Green Bay
4. 15 carries for 32 yards v. Minnesota

The total tally is alarming: 75 rushes for just 255 yards. That's 3.4 yards per carry. Yuck. Williams himself is masking the dereliction of duty from the rushing attack by contributing big rushing totals himself:

1. 4 carries for 5 yards @ Arizona
2. 2 carries for 15 yards v. New England
3. 9 carries for 70 yards v. Green Bay
4. 6 carries for 33 yards v. Minnesota

Williams has added 123 yards on 21 carries, nearly half as many yards as Swift+Johnson despite the backs having 3.5x attempts. Yuck yuck yuck.

Back before the season started, I worried most about the Bears improving just a little -- to something like 8-9 or even 9-8 -- without being good. It would ensure that the club stayed in the Flus-infused purgatory for at least another year, wasting another year on the Williams rookie contract. That ship has sailed. Flus is toast. Williams is now thriving without his albatross of a coach holding him down.

While I'd still love to see management put on their big-boy pants and jettison Flus before the season is over, I'm confident that Williams can survive six more games with his overmatched head coach. The continued failure of the head man should even give GM Ryan Poles -- or, possibly, his replacement -- yet another top-10 draft pick with which to add to the roster. While there are significant needs to address before the 2025 season begins, especially in the interior of the offensive line and along the defensive front, the Bears have sufficient assets to put toward the roster to make this an eminently enticing opportunity for the 2025 head coach.

That 2025 head coach will not be Matt Eberflus. And outside of the emergence of Caleb Williams as a budding star, that's the best thing that could come out of the 2024 season at this point. For a team that struggles to get wins on the field, Bears fans will have to settle for this "win" instead. For now, anyway.