Then, across 296 plate appearances in 2020-21, Hoerner hit...zero bombs? Zero??? Zero. Yikes! He continually lowered his strikeout rate, but it was clear that power simply wouldn't be a part of his profile, but he did amass a combined walk rate of nearly 10% over that time suggesting that he'd be able to get on base with regularity.
Unfortunately, health concerns reared their head at this point. He missed two months in 2018 with an elbow injury, two more months in 2019 with a wrist injury, and almost all of 2021 with oblique injuries. Yikes! Thankfully, Hoerner has proved remarkably durable since then, including participating in 150+ games each year from 2023-25. To his credit, his health profile now looks promising.
But Hoerner is still a player who needs every bit of his athleticism because the profile only works with twitch and quickness. To his credit, it's a wonderful profile at its peak, where it has resided for the last four years: his twitchiness yields an elite glove, elite baserunning, and enough base hits (mostly singles) to get on base at an average clip. Although there's basically no power in his profile -- he has a sub-.100 ISO over the last three seasons -- the skills that he does have make him a star. Not a superstar but a star nonetheless.
So, his six-year, $141M extension should be a cause for celebration, right? WRONG! Even after deferrals make it more like $130M, this deal is an outrageous risk and a contract with a chance to torpedo the Cubs' chances as we move toward the 2030s. Maybe the Cubs didn't have a choice as next winter's free agent class looks terrible, so Hoerner figured to get a bag from someone. But the Cubs are biting off immense risk here.
Hoerner's profile is delicate. The speed? It's fueled by his elite first step and twitchiness. The defense? It's fueled by his elite first step and twitchiness. His contact tool? Hey, that's not fueled by his elite first step and twitchiness...but players with Hoerner's athleticism profile steal a lot of hits when their athleticism is at its peak but fewer as they age.
If Hoerner loses half a step, the whole profile wobbles. If he loses a whole step, the profile collapses. And there's nothing to fall back on at that point. There's no walk-fueled on-base ability and there's no power.
Yikes!
We've got plenty of players with profiles driven by speed, defense, and contact that lack walks and power. In considering comps for Hoerner's deal, four players came to mind, three of them ex-Cubs. And the results? Well, yikes!
Jason Heyward
The Heyward comp isn't the cleanest for a pair of reasons. First, Heyward had big power in his profile as a Braves prospect and showed above-average power in Atlanta and St. Louis before coming to Chicago. Second, Heyward always showed an above-average ability to draw walks. Nonetheless:
The Heyward comp isn't the cleanest for a pair of reasons. First, Heyward had big power in his profile as a Braves prospect and showed above-average power in Atlanta and St. Louis before coming to Chicago. Second, Heyward always showed an above-average ability to draw walks. Nonetheless:
- Six years Pre-Cubs: .268/.353/.431, 118 wRC+, 86 SB, .309 BABIP
- Seven years with the Cubs: .245/.323/.377, 88 wRC+, 32 SB, .277 BABIP
Heyward's elite defense and baserunning pre-Cubs slipped to merely above-average defense and baserunning in Chicago. Add it all up and Heyward pumped out 25.3 WAR in his six years spent in Atlanta and St. Louis, then slipped all the way to 7.1 WAR in his seven years with the Cubs. Heyward gets something of a free pass because the 2016 Cubs won the World Series, but his contract was a disaster and it's fair to assume that his albatross of a deal played a role in the Ricketts family electing to blow up the core of the team in 2021.
Yikes!
Juan Pierre
Pierre and Hoerner don't have the exact same profile, but once again, the similarities are obvious. Pierre had an excellent start to his career through his 2006 season with the Cubs, riding his incredible speed and strong contact skills to a World Series win and a big five-year, $44M deal from the Dodgers before the 2007 season (that was a big deal at the time). When he had his legs, Pierre was productive. When the legs went, well, uh-oh:
- First seven years with Rockies/Marlins/Cubs: .303/.350/.377, 87 wRC+, 325 SB, .319 BABIP
- Seven years with the Cubs: .285/.334/.341, 84 wRC+, 289 SB, .303 BABIP
Pierre's offense hardly cratered, but his defense began to fail later in his career. The result? He amassed 16.6 WAR before free agency -- a 3+ WAR player on average is a very good starter -- but just 7.6 in the seven seasons afterward.
Like Heyward, that's an MLB player. But it's a backup, not a key starter.
Neifi Perez
One of my least favorite Cubs ever despite his limited run with the club. Perez isn't a story about a player whose profile fell apart as he aged. It's a story about a player whose profile throughout his career might show where Hoerner's profile is going. Perez was a truly dreadful offensive player throughout his career. In fact, his lone full season with the Cubs was the best season of his career. Ready for that offensive outburst? .274/.298/.383, good for a 72 wRC+. Woof. Perez's career line of .267/.297/.375 was good for a 58 wRC+, decidedly worse than the career figure of the explosive Ronny Cedeno and nearly identical to Carlos Zambrano (57), a pitcher with a 1.3% career BB%. So yeah, Perez was incredibly bad as a hitter. But he was an average runner and a plus-plus defender up the middle. Add it all up and you get a career WAR of -3.3 over 1,400 games. Replacement level.
One of my least favorite Cubs ever despite his limited run with the club. Perez isn't a story about a player whose profile fell apart as he aged. It's a story about a player whose profile throughout his career might show where Hoerner's profile is going. Perez was a truly dreadful offensive player throughout his career. In fact, his lone full season with the Cubs was the best season of his career. Ready for that offensive outburst? .274/.298/.383, good for a 72 wRC+. Woof. Perez's career line of .267/.297/.375 was good for a 58 wRC+, decidedly worse than the career figure of the explosive Ronny Cedeno and nearly identical to Carlos Zambrano (57), a pitcher with a 1.3% career BB%. So yeah, Perez was incredibly bad as a hitter. But he was an average runner and a plus-plus defender up the middle. Add it all up and you get a career WAR of -3.3 over 1,400 games. Replacement level.
Omar Vizquel
The only non-Cub on the list, Vizquel might offer the most appropriate comp. Vizquel began his career with an ultra-elite, historically great glove, plus baserunning, a solid hit tool, a solid ability to draw walks, and absolutely no power whatsoever. Throughout his run in Seattle and Cleveland, Vizquel was good or great every year using this profile. Then he got older and the profile collapsed as the offense vanished, even though his defense remained strong:
- With Seattle/Cleveland: .275/.341/.358, 87 wRC+, 318 SB, .296 BABIP
- Post-Cleveland: .264/.324/.335, 73 wRC+, 86 SB, .289 BABIP
Fueled by his ridiculous glove and a below-average but solid offensive profile, Vizquel proved useful if not terribly impactful, producing 36.2 WAR across his first 16 years. Then the legs went, the offense cratered, and he managed just 6.3 WAR in eight seasons after leaving Cleveland.
The saving grace with Vizquel? He left Cleveland after his age-37 season. If Hoerner remains productive through his age-37 season, the Cubs will be overjoyed. If we look to Vizquel's age-30 through age-35 seasons, we see a template for success: elite defense, plus baserunning, and a .286/.357/.383 batting line (95 wRC+) that added up to 18.0 WAR across six seasons.
Unfortunately, I worry that the six-year stretch for Vizquel above presents the dream scenario with the Cubs and Hoerner: his legs stick around just long enough to allow each part of his profile to play up and he remains highly productive while others carry the hefty offensive load.
Conclusion
It's worthwhile to put all four of the rosy stat lines next to each other -- no, there's no rosy stat line involving Neifi Perez -- so that they can be understood in concert, so here goes:
It's worthwhile to put all four of the rosy stat lines next to each other -- no, there's no rosy stat line involving Neifi Perez -- so that they can be understood in concert, so here goes:
- Jason Heyward in six years Pre-Cubs: .268/.353/.431, 118 wRC+, 86 SB, .309 BABIP, 25.3 WAR
- Juan Pierre's first seven years with Rockies/Marlins/Cubs: .303/.350/.377, 87 wRC+, 325 SB, .319 BABIP, 16.6 WAR
- Omar Vizquel in 16 seasons with Seattle/Cleveland: .275/.341/.358, 87 wRC+, 318 SB, .296 BABIP, 36.2 WAR
- Nico Hoerner to date (seven seasons): .282/.339/.383, 103 wRC+, 131 SB, 19.7 WAR
I will remain outrageously hopeful that Hoerner follows in Vizquel's footsteps and not in those of Heyward, Pierre, or Perez. If he ends up succeeding the latter group, well...
YIKES!
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