Predictions for the 2015 Chicago Cubs

This may seem like the kind of thing that I should be putting up on Bleed Cubbie Blue, but the reality here is that I intend to do little/no analysis for this post.

 

As Stephen Colbert so eloquently stated, "that's where the truth lies, right down here in the gut." With that premise leading the way, these predictions come from a combination of hundreds of hours spent watching these players, hundreds more spent reading about them, personal viewings, conversations with scouts, and good ol' fashioned gut logic.

 

I did cheat a little bit: I looked at the number of plate appearances each Cubs position group utilized in 2014 to give myself some plate appearance estimates. By group, they were as follows according to Fangraphs:

 

P: 336

C: 665

1B: 747

2B: 1,243

3B: 805

SS: 798

LF: 888

CF: 1,596

RF: 1,110

 

TEAM: 6,102

 

These numbers serve as a nice reminder that, even in 2014, it is still sometimes difficult to accurately assign a player's position in each plate appearance. There should be some variety given that certain players - like Anthony Rizzo - routinely batted higher in the lineup than other players - like Welington Castillo - did. Still, the Cubs simply did not assign twice as many plate appearances to their centerfielders as opposed to the shortstops in 2014.

 

To me, it seems as though the most accurate measure is to take the team's total plate appearances, subtract out the pitchers, and then assign the other eight position groups a roughly equal amount of the 5,766 non-pitcher plate appearances adjusted upward for groups likely to hit high in the order (1B) and downward for groups likely to bat near the bottom (C). I'll use these numbers:

 

C:   675

1B: 750

2B: 725

3B: 725

SS: 725

LF: 725

CF: 800

RF: 725

 

This assigns an additional 84 plate appearances, a very conservative estimate for a team that figures to have a much-improved offense in 2015 compared to 2014. I'm throwing pinch-hitter plate appearances in here. Just live with the estimates.

 

As a disclaimer, I finished the picks for every position group except for the relief pitchers on February 22nd. Some of those picks still make plenty of sense whereas some of them look plain stupid. Such is life.

 

Without further adieu, my picks for the 2015 Chicago Cubs:

 

Catchers

I don't think that Welington Castillo will be on the team on Opening Night, even if it means that the Cubs release him and eat roughly $350,000 to do so (note: this looks dumb, too). That means we're looking at only a pair of recent acquisitions, Miguel Montero and David Ross, to handle the position with Rafael Lopez picking up a few spare plate appearances as needed.

 

Last	First	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	SB	Glove
Montero	Miguel	480	.250	.325	.390	.715	14	0	++
Ross	David	160	.240	.305	.415	.720	6	0	+
Lopez	Rafael	35	.250	.335	.370	.705	1	0	+/-

 

First Basemen

Anthony Rizzo, Anthony Rizzo, and more Anthony Rizzo. Woo-hoo!

 

Last	First	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	SB	Glove
Rizzo	Anthony	735	.275	.375	.525	.900	35	5	+
Olt	Mike	15	.220	.300	.400	.700	1	0	+

 

Second Basemen

Now we get some intrigue. After a couple of relatively-settled spots, we find the wide-open space that is the keystone. It seemed as though this would be Javier Baez's job as recently as October. However, the following months saw increased rumblings about Arismendy Alcantara finding time in the infield, the acquisition of Tommy La Stella as a direct competitor, increased winter ball strikeouts for Baez, and the acquisition of Dexter Fowler to play center field, thus forcing Alcantara squarely into the second base competition. Right?

 

Nah. My gut tells me what it has always told me with Baez: this kid can murder the ball and he's going to play as a result. Will he spend some of his time in Iowa this spring/summer? Quite possibly. But he's going to spend a lot of time on the north side of Chicago.

 

Last	First	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	SB	Glove
Baez	Javier	445	.240	.305	.460	.765	24	10	+
La Stella	Tommy	140	.270	.345	.340	.685	0	1	+/-
Alcantara	Arismendy	125	.260	.310	.445	.755	18	25	+
Russell	Addison	15	.280	.330	.450	.780	3	0	+

 

Third Basemen

Somebody who isn’t Kris Bryant is going to start the year at third base. That’s largely irrelevant as Bryant will come to Pittsburgh or Cincinnati to join the Major League club in late April. And he’s going to be a monster. Whether Mike Olt or Tommy La Stella gets the majority of the time prior to then will be interesting to watch. But this is all about Bryant, even if I think his stay at the hot corner will only last for a year until Addison Russell needs a home.

 

Last	First	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	SB	Glove
Bryant	Kris	560	.270	.380	.535	.915	30	5	-
Baez	Javier	65	.240	.305	.460	.765	24	10	+
La Stella	Tommy	60	.270	.345	.340	.685	0	1	-
Russell	Addison	20	.280	.330	.450	.780	3	0	+
Olt	Mike	20	.220	.300	.400	.700	1	0	+

 

Shortstops

2014 was a big year for Starlin Castro. His horrendous 2013 cast doubts about his future, but he silenced his critics with a rousing 2014 that ended a month early. I think Castro is going to take that next, big step this year.

 

Last	First	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	SB	Glove
Starlin	Castro	700	.305	.355	.455	.810	18	5	-
Baez	Javier	20	.240	.305	.460	.765	24	10	+/-
Russell	Addison	5	.280	.330	.450	.780	3	0	+

 

Left Fielders

I still think that this is Bryant’s long-term home, but in 2015, Chris Coghlan and Chris Denorfia figure to hold down the fort. This is the scariest spot to me, even with a strong spring from Coghlan calming my fears. His bat could be good enough to keep him in the lineup even though his defense may very well be the worst corner outfield defense in the Majors.

 

Last	First	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	SB	Glove
Coghlan	Chris	415	.230	.305	.335	.640	5	5	--
Denorfia	Chris	220	.260	.320	.400	.720	5	5	+
Bryant	Kris	50	.270	.380	.535	.915	30	5	+/-
Fowler	Dexter	40	.285	.380	.445	.825	15	15	+/-

 

Centerfielders

Dexter Fowler was a favorite of mine as a prospect: his speed and athleticism portended of plus defense, his approach was marvelous, and his body suggested that he’d hit for good power. Strangely, the power never really materialized and advanced metrics despise his defensive work in center. Nevertheless, Fowler’s on-base skills will be a welcome sight atop the Cubs lineup. His glove will be very interesting as he could find himself playing on a one-year deal in 2016 or he could find himself the recipient of a qualifying offer with a strong year. It is nice to buy a walk year. You'll notice no team for Junior Lake or Ryan Sweeney. That's not by mistake. I think Sweeney gets flipped in ST/early and Lake spends the whole year in the minors/gets flipped.

 

Last	First	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	SB	Glove
Fowler	Dexter	525	.285	.380	.445	.825	15	15	--
Alcantara	Arismendy	235	.260	.310	.445	.755	18	25	+
Denorfia	Chris	25	.260	.320	.400	.720	5	5	--
Szczur	Matt	15	.240	.300	.320	.620	0	5	+

 

Right Fielders

This is decidedly the low pick on Soler. He could be a freakin’ monster. That’s the hope and the skills are there. I’m excited to watch him.

 

Last	First	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	SB	Glove
Soler	Jorge	590	.255	.320	.440	.760	25	2	-
Alcantara	Arismendy	80	.260	.310	.445	.755	18	25	+
Denorfia	Chris	55	.260	.320	.400	.720	5	5	+

 

If you'd prefer to see the position players broken down by player with this TOTAL plate appearances listed, here you go:

 

Last	First	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	SB	Glove
Rizzo	Anthony	735	.275	.375	.525	.900	35	5	+
Starlin	Castro	700	.305	.355	.455	.810	18	5	-
Bryant	Kris	610	.270	.380	.535	.915	30	5	-
Soler	Jorge	590	.255	.320	.440	.760	25	2	-
Fowler	Dexter	565	.285	.380	.445	.825	15	15	--
Baez	Javier	530	.240	.305	.460	.765	24	10	+
Montero	Miguel	480	.250	.325	.390	.715	14	0	++
Alcantara	Arismendy	440	.260	.310	.445	.755	18	25	+
Coghlan	Chris	415	.230	.305	.335	.640	5	5	--
Denorfia	Chris	300	.260	.320	.400	.720	5	5	+
La Stella	Tommy	200	.270	.345	.340	.685	0	1	+/-
Ross	David	160	.240	.305	.415	.720	6	0	+
Russell	Addison	40	.280	.330	.450	.780	3	0	+
Lopez	Rafael	35	.250	.335	.370	.705	1	0	+/-
Olt	Mike	35	.220	.300	.400	.700	1	0	+
Szczur	Matt	15	.240	.300	.320	.620	0	5	+

 

Starting Pitchers

Well, this sure is a different group than from the one that started 2014. Hopefully two or three of these aren’t getting spun off during the 2015 season. There should be enough talent here to make about 160 good starts. These statistics are only for these pitchers in their roles as starters.

 

Last	First	Games	Starts	IP	H	BB	WHIP	SO	HR	ERA
Lester	Jon	33	33	210	190	63	1.20	182	19	3.75
Wada	Tsuyoshi	30	23	130	130	36	1.28	113	15	4.00
Arrieta	Jake	27	27	175	156	55	1.21	198	13	3.20
Hammel	Jason	25	25	150	146	47	1.29	125	20	4.15
Hendricks	Kyle	28	28	170	165	38	1.19	110	15	3.80
Jackson	Edwin	35	14	80	83	29	1.40	69	9	4.20
Turner	Jacob	30	12	65	75	22	1.49	43	7	4.40

 

Relief Pitchers

Unlike with the starters, this group features a whole lot of the same names as 2014. And that’s definitely a good thing, particularly the young right-handed power arms. The lefty reliever jobs are on much shakier territory. If the club makes an in-season deal in 2015, I suspect that it will be for a southpaw in the ‘pen. These statistics are only for these pitchers in their roles as relievers.

 

Last	First	Games	Starts	IP	H	BB	WHIP	SO	HR	ERA
Grimm	Justin	60	N/A	70	66	21	1.24	68	7	3.55
Rondon	Hector	70	N/A	65	50	15	1.00	67	3	1.85
Strop	Pedro	65	N/A	65	47	28	1.15	79	5	3.30
Motte	Jason	60	N/A	60	53	19	1.20	47	8	3.85
Ramirez	Neil	60	N/A	55	50	22	1.31	79	5	2.75
Jackson	Edwin	21	N/A	30	32	10	1.40	30	3	3.30
Turner	Jacob	18	N/A	25	22	10	1.28	21	4	3.70
Coke	Phil	35	N/A	25	28	9	1.48	18	3	4.25
Rosscup	Zac	25	N/A	20	19	11	1.50	29	2	3.10
Schlitter	Brian	20	N/A	20	26	7	1.65	11	1	5.20
Wada	Tsuyoshi	7	N/A	15	13	5	1.20	14	2	3.50
Parker	Blake	10	N/A	10	14	2	1.60	11	2	5.50
Jokisch	Eric	10	N/A	10	11	3	1.40	7	2	4.80
Beeler	Dallas	5	N/A	5	5	2	1.40	3	0	3.20
Rivero	Armando	5	N/A	5	4	2	1.20	8	1	2.25

 

2015 MLB Predictions

My picks for the Cubs roster this year are forthcoming as soon as I can get the formatting to work. In the meantime, here's my off-hand picks for the 2015 MLB season:

AL West
Oakland (88-74): They win because that's just what they do; no reason to keep picking against them.
Anaheim (86-76): These guys are old.
Seattle (85-77): I like this team fine. I just don't love them. I don't believe the hype.
Houston (74-88): The future is coming, though I question the ceiling
Texas (65-97): So many injuries already (again)

AL Central
Cleveland (92-70): I love the pitching and see plenty of positional talent.
Detroit (83-79): About to fall off a very expensive cliff.
Kansas City (81-81): Mediocre encore.
Chicago Sox (78-84): Plenty of good additions but the roster was awful beforehand.
Minnesota (77-85): There's more talent than before; lots of decent pitching.

AL East
Boston (92-70): They're going to hit enough to win plenty of games. Pitching will be interesting.
Toronto (90-72): I'm presuming that, at some point, they'll actually address second base.
Baltimore (82-80): Meh.
New York Yankees (80-82): Loud meh.
Tampa Bay (68-94): They're going to sell hard and it's going to get ugly.

NL West
Los Angeles (100-62): Really, really good with absurd ceilings and absurd depth.
San Francisco (84-78): Good, not great. Bumgarner can't pitch every inning.
San Diego (82-80): Despite the noisy offseason, this team still isn't that good?
Colorado (70-92): Might Tulo finally move on?
Arizona (56-106): They suck oh so badly.

NL Central
St. Louis (94-68): Just because.
Chicago Cubs (86-76): The pieces are there, but the timing might just be a bit off. Then again...
Pittsburgh (83-79): Yet another good, not great, team.
Milwaukee (76-86): I don't see a scenario where they contend, but there's real talent here.
Cincinnati (69-93): There's a massive firesale coming.

NL East
Miami (96-66): They're loaded everywhere except shortstop and have plenty of trade chips.
Washington (95-67): Also loaded everywhere, especially on the mound.
New York Mets (82-80): Killer pitching contrasted with devastating spots all over the diamond.
Atlanta (69-93): A bad team with some really excellent parts. Strange roster.
Philadelphia (66-96): Keep clawing for that 66th win, Ruben!

Wild Card Playoffs
Toronto over Anaheim
Washington over Chicago Cubs

Divisional Playoffs
Toronto over Cleveland
Boston over Oakland
Washington over Los Angeles
Miami over St. Louis

League Championship Series
Toronto over Boston
Miami over Washington

World Series
Miami over Toronto

Please excuse me while I vomit thinking about a third World Series for the Marlins.

MVP
OF Mike Trout
OF Giancarlo Stanton

Cy Young
SP David Price
SP Stephen Strasburg

Rookie of the Year
SP Andrew Heaney
3B/OF Kris Bryant

Nothing terribly surprising here. My long-term love affairs with Heaney and Bryant continue, and Heaney's league switch enables them both to take home some hardware.

It Seems Like the Bears Have More Spending to Do

It's no secret that Ryan Pace inherited a middling roster in transition. One of the unfortunate parting gifts from former general manager Phil Emery was a messy salary cap sheet for what is an admittedly mediocre roster. The Bears aren't in a disastrous situation like the Saints, yet they're just as far from having the cap space of the Jaguars.

Pace has ventured into the free agent marketplace to shore up a few massive holes, adding edge rusher Pernell McPhee, wide receiver Eddie Royal, and safety Antrel Rolle on a trio of eminently reasonable deals. Yet the roster still has holes and a handful of impact free agents remain unemployed. Might Pace have more shopping to do? If he wants to buy some more talent, what kind of resources does he have available to him?

I've got my own spreadsheet on which I track all of the cash outlays by player in addition to their cap hits, dead money, and potential cap savings. There aren't any genuinely significant opportunities for cap savings outside of $7.8M for Matt Forte. Needless to say, cutting Forte would be unwise.

Here is how the roster breaks down by position group in terms of cap allocations for 2015 with a reminder that only the top 51 cap numbers in a given year count against the cap:

Quarterbacks (3): $18,135,000 (Cutler, Clausen, Fales)
Running Backs (3): $9,930,845 (Forte, Carey, Perry)
Fullback (1): $510,000 (minimum placeholder)
Wide Receivers (5): $8,713,823 (Jeffery, Royal, Wilson, Mariani, Ross)
Tight Ends (3): $7,295,000 (Bennett, Miller, Annen)
Offensive Tackles (3): $9,197,828 (Bushrod, Mills, Leno)
Center (1): $1,450,000 (Garza)
Guards (4): $6,553,062 (Slauson, Long, Ola, Groy)
Edge Defenders (7): $33,156,876 (Allen, Houston, McPhee, Young, McClellin, Washington, Bass)
Defensive Linemen (5): $4,296,573 (Ratliff, Ferguson, Lane, Sutton, Dunn)
Linebackers (4): $2,790,119 (Bostic, Lattimore, Greene, Jones)
Cornerbacks (5): $9,071,591 (Jennings, Fuller, Hurst, Mitchell, Louis-Jean)
Safeties (4): $7,852,845 (Rolle, Mundy, Vereen, Walters)
Specialists (3): $4,646,327 (Gould, O'Donnell, minimum placeholder long snapper)

Those 51 contracts count for just $124,164,652 against the cap. However, the Bears owe $5,625,000 against the cap for Brandon Marshall's accelerated future bonus hits by virtue of his trade to the New York Jets, and they owe an additional $105,155 for other small signing bonuses for released players. When we add in the cap holds for the team's six draft picks, we get to a total of $135,628,707 across the 51 contracts above, dead money, and the draftees. However, simply adding the draftees' cap figures in without replacing a minimum-salary earner is inaccurate. As such, after subtracting the minimum salaries that are less than a particular draftee's cap figure, the cap space should be adjusted upward an additional $2,744,801. Given an adjusted cap for the club of $145,168,434, the Bears figure to have approximately $12,284,528 of cap space for 2015.

Given the number of holes on the team, the following free agents all make some amount of sense as Pace targets the remaining free agents:

RB C.J. Spiller
WR Michael Crabtree
OT Joe Barksdale
C   Stefen Wisniewski
EDGE Brian Orakpo
EDGE Derrick Morgan
EDGE Greg Hardy (domestic violence concerns)
DL Nick Fairley
DL B.J. Raji
LB Rolando McClain
LG Mason Foster
CB Chris Culliver
CB Rashean Mathis

Obviously the Bears will look to fill holes with draft picks as well, but to me, the most pressing needs for the club as constructed are at nose tackle, inside linebacker, offensive tackle, center, cornerback, and safety. Given the available talent and the positions of need, I'd like to see the club consider, in order, Wisniewski (Nittany bias), McClain, Culliver, Orakpo, Barksdale, and Orakpo. Orakpo may not fit the bill; I just recall early-career Orakpo as an edge force. I'd love to see the Bears take a shot on Crabtree, particularly if the former top pick is willing to settle for a one year "prove it" deal.

The basic point here is obvious: Ryan Pace has plenty of cap space in which to squeeze a couple of starting caliber players. Here's hoping he makes good choices with his spending.

2015 Chicago Bears Roster Breakdown

With the bombshell trade of WR Brandon Marshall to the New York Jets in exchange for a fifth-round draft choice, new Bears General Manager Ryan Pace has begun the heavy-lifting of rebuilding former coach Marc Trestman's extremely disappointing roster. With new head coach John Fox on board and with new coordinators – offensive coordinator Adam Gase and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio – the roster figures to turn over in a significant way over the coming week. With the dominoes already starting to fall, let's take a look at the current roster, projecting players who are locks, those who are more likely than not to stick around, and those who are more likely than not to leave. Each player's 2015 salary cap charge is included in parentheses while "Need" ratings cover the spectrum of none-low-medium-high-extreme.

Quarterbacks (2)

Locks: N/A
Likely to Stay: Jay Cutler ($16.500M), Jimmy Clausen (unknown)
Likely to Go: David Fales ($0.510M)
Need: Medium

Analysis: Trading Brandon Marshall was like lighting a sparkler in your front yard on July 4^th; trading/cutting Jay Cutler would be like a full-fledged Disney World fireworks extravaganza. I'll be stunned if it happens, even though most regimes like to start over at the quarterback spot. It's hard to see ownership eating so much cash and cap space for Cutler to play somewhere else. Clausen and Fales are backup types who might fight each other for a job.

Running Backs (3)

Locks: Matt Forte ($9.200M), Ka'Deem Carey ($0.621M)
Likely to Stay: Senorise Perry ($0.510M)
Likely to Go: N/A
Need: Low

Analysis: It's unclear how exactly Gase's arrival will impact Forte's role with the club, but it's clear that Forte can thrive in basically any offensive system. Carey was a mild disappointment in his rookie campaign, but he figures to get another shot at earning his keep. Perry has the inside track to a job primarily due to special teams familiarity and the roster being light on backs.

Wide Receivers (6)

Locks: Alshon Jeffery ($1.447M), Marquess Wilson ($0.597M)
Likely to Stay: N/A
Likely to Go: Josh Bellamy ($0.660M), Marc Mariani ($0.660M), John Chiles ($0.435M), Rashad Lawrence ($0.435M)
Need: Extreme

Analysis: Alshon has established himself as a legitimate ace receiver and Wilson has shown some flashes in his brief career thus far. Nevertheless, this is an extremely high priority for the club this offseason. Pace must add at least one genuine target through free agency with at least one more likely coming in the draft.

The last four names are all roster fodder.

Free agent targets could include Randall Cobb, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Torrey Smith, Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks, Harry Douglas, Brian Hartline, or Cecil Shorts, depending on how aggressively the club pursues a starting-caliber option.

Tight Ends (4)

Locks: N/A
Likely to Stay: Martellus Bennett ($6.125M), Zach Miller (unknown)
Likely to Go: Blake Annen ($0.510M), Jacob Maxwell ($0.435M)
Need: Medium

Analysis: This need could be much higher depending on how the new regime feels about Martellus Bennett. If he's a quirky contributor, they merely need to add a complementary, blocking-oriented piece. If he's on the Marshall path, a big-time addition is likely needed. The free agent class could certainly influence this decision with marquee names in Julius Thomas and Jordan Cameron available while former top prospect Jermaine Gresham is also an attractive option.

Offensive Tackle (4)

Locks: Jermon Bushrod ($8.050M)
Likely to Stay: Jordan Mills ($0.626M), Charles Leno ($0.522M)
Likely to Go: Jason Weaver ($0.435M)
Need: High

Analysis: Bushrod will stick around, in part due to the $6.6M of dead money on his deal. Mills will also likely hang around due to his starting experience. Leno has a decent change to hang around given his developmental pedigree.

That said, I expect that the Bears will pursue a tackle, be he a prospect or a mediocre veteran. The free agent class has a couple of gems in Bryan Bulaga and Doug Free, but after that pair it's just a mess.

Guard (6)

Locks: Matt Slauson ($3.268M), Kyle Long ($2.264M)
Likely to Stay: N/A
Likely to Go: Michael Ola ($0.512M), Ryan Groy ($0.510M), Conor Bofeli ($0.435M)
Need: Medium

Analysis: Long and Slauson form one of the better starting tandems in the NFL, yet the depth options are quite poor. Ola and Groy both largely flopped in their starting auditions last year. Given the age of center Roberto Garza and the lack of a developmental prospect in the middle, the Bears figure to add either a center or a guard this offseason. Mike Iupati and James Carpenter would both be impact free agent additions, but neither makes tons of sense given the current construction of the interior offensive line.

Center (1)

Locks: N/A
Likely to Stay: Roberto Garza ($1.450M)
Likely to Go: N/A
Need: High

Analysis: Garza most likely got some kind of assurance that he would have a job when he agreed to stick around in December. Nevertheless, in his mid-30s, Garza is likely sweating out the fates of Rodney Hudson, Samson Satele, and personal favorite Stefen Wisniewski. It will be a stunner if no interior additions are made before the 2015 season.

Nose Tackles (1)

Locks: Ego Ferguson ($0.935M)
Likely to Stay: N/A
Likely to Go: N/A
Need: Extreme

Analysis: Ego Ferguson showed plenty of promise in his rookie season. He likely has the athleticism and size to play either tackle or end in a 3-4 scheme. The Bears will almost certainly give him a role and ask him to contour his body accordingly.

Regardless, the 3-4 doesn't work without a true nose. Thankfully for the Bears, B.J. Rai, Terrance Knighton, and Letroy Guion all fit as plausible additions. This is likely the club's top priority in free agency, something that will be shored up on the first day or two.

Defensive Ends (4)

Locks: Lamarr Houston ($6.990M), Jeremiah Ratliff ($1.859M)
Likely to Stay: N/A
Likely to Go: Will Sutton ($0.672M), Brandon Dunn ($0.510M)
Need: High

Analysis: Now it gets a little tricky as big 4-3 defensive ends can sometimes hack it as ends in a 3-4 while oftentimes 4-3 defensive tackles kick outside to play the end spot in a 3-4. As such, assigning some of the current Bears to a particular spot was tricky.

Houston has always been big for a 4-3 end, so leaving him at end in a 3-4 is more of a natural fit. Ratliff was excellent in 2014 on the interior, so given his relatively meager salary cap figure, I expect that the Bears will keep him around to try him on the outside. The club will likely add a player here, though whether they see any future at all for Sutton likely has a big impact on how aggressively they pursue a rotation player in free agency in addition to adding a draftee.

Outside Linebackers (9)

Locks: N/A
Likely to Stay: Cornelius Washington ($0.611M), Shea McClellin ($2.629M), Christian Jones ($0.512M), Jared Allen ($12.500M)
Likely to Go: Jamil Merrell ($0.435M), David Bass ($0.585M), Austen Lane ($0.745M), Khaseem Greene ($0.693M), Jonathan Brown ($0.435M)
Need: Extreme

Analysis: It seems absurd to place Jared Allen and his fully guaranteed salary in the "Likely to Stay" camp, but given that his salary is already guaranteed, the Bears get to make a purely football-related decision on whether to keep him. There were simply too many times when he was pushed off the ball and out of the play last year. However, Allen likely sticks around as a situational pass rusher, enabling him to focus on his primary skill.

Regardless, the 3-4 defense requires a fierce pass rusher coming off of the edge in order to thrive. Such a player is not on the current roster, though McClellin and Washington both received a shot of life with the scheme switch. Jerry Hughes, Brian Orakpo, and Pernell McPhee all fit the bill in free agency.

Inside Linebackers (2)
Locks: Jon Bostic ($1.075M)
Likely to Stay: DeDe Lattimore ($0.510M)
Likely to Go: N/A
Need: Extreme

Analysis: Bostic still looks like he should be an every-down player, even if the Bears are still trying to figure out which position fits him best. Lattimore figures to fit as a special teamer.

It is darn-near impossible to run a 3-4 with only two interior linebackers on the roster. Free agency is extremely underwhelming, suggesting that the Bears will target at least one draftee in the middle.

Cornerbacks (5)

Locks: Kyle Fuller ($2.202M)
Likely to Stay: Demontre Hurst (unknown), Tim Jennings ($5.250M)
Likely to Go: Terrance Mitchell ($0.510M), Al Louis-Jean ($0.510M)
Need: High

Analysis: Fuller still has an extremely bright future and Hurst enjoyed a promising 2014 campaign playing primarily in the slot. Jennings will be a full-time starter…unless the front office gets cold feet in the wake of his DUI arrest and wants to clean house. Even if Jennings sticks around, a slot/fringe starter will be added. There are dozens of competent options in free agency including Byron Maxwell, Brandon Flowers and, of course, Darrelle Revis.

Safeties (3)

Locks: Ryan Mundy ($1.500M), Brock Vereen ($0.608M)
Likely to Stay: N/A
Likely to Go: Anthony Walters ($0.745M)
Need: High

Analysis: For a team with so many issues, the Bears are actually relatively settled at the safety spot heading in 2015. The club figures to seek out a rotation option to join Mundy and Vereen, but the need is hardly as dire as it has been in years past. Don't expect to see Devin McCourty walk through the doors at Halas Hall.

Specialists (2)

Locks: Robbie Gould ($3.600M), Pat O'Donnell ($0.536M)
Likely to Stay: N/A
Likely to Go: N/A
Need: None

Analysis: Gould suffered through a frustrating 2014 season, but he remains among the steadiest kickers in the game's history. O'Donnell flashed his big leg in 2014, though consistency will be the determining factor in his career. A new long snapper is needed, though the club will almost certainly devote only a minimum salary commitment to such player.

Cap Situation

It's mostly worthless to look at the club's roster without at least some idea of the team's salary cap situation. As for March 6, 2015, the Bears have $5.730M in dead money against their cap while their top 51 contracts count for $107.039M. Adding in a draft pool of $6.185M (presuming that the fifth-round choice acquired in exchange for Brandon Marshall will in fact be a 2015 selection), the team has approximately $115.909M (figuring that the draftees will replace the seven lowest earners among the top-51). The team's adjusted cap figure is $145.168M, leaving approximately $29.259M of cap space.

Needs

Here is a breakdown of the needs as listed above:

Extreme: Wide Receiver, Nose Tackle, Outside Linebacker, Inside Linebacker

High: Offensive Tackle, Center, Defensive End, Cornerback, Safety
Medium: Quarterback, Tight End, Guard
Low: Running Back
None: Specialists

This list reflects a few realities of the current state of the Bears. In no particular order, they are:

1.      Phil Emery's 2014 shopping spree was a colossal failure. Though Willie Young proved to be a good find, the fact that the club is starting over on the defensive side of the ball means that Emery's overhaul failed to bring about the desired improvement.

2.      The draft class figures to be defense-heavy yet again. While drafting for need gets teams in trouble when they select a lesser player because he plays the right position, the Bears have such voluminous needs that the best available player is overwhelmingly likely to fit a major position of need. Every cloud has a silver lining.

3.      The roster is going to turn over. A lot.

4.      Previous drafts have been about as poor as possible. Thankfully, Emery routinely hit on his top pick as Jeffery, Long, and Fuller all look like plus contributors. However, the pieces that fill in a roster are largely absent. Only McClellin and Jeffery remain from the 2012 class, and McClellin has been a huge disappointment. It's a bit early to judge the 2013 class, but only Long and possibly Wilson figure to be at least average players. The 2014 class looks encouraging as of now following productive debuts from Fuller, Ferguson, and O'Donnell, though poor auditions from Sutton, Carey, and Vereen are problematic.

5.      On the bright side, the only players on the roster who are genuinely deserving of extensions are Jeffery and Forte. There should be plenty of cash to throw around in free agency given that the club doesn't need to hold much back to extend their own players.

A Ridiculously Early Look at the Cubs' Options at #9 in the 2015 MLB Draft

I've been wondering for the last few months whether the Cubs might consider taking a ultra-aggressive overspending approach to this summer's draft. It makes sense given that (1) the team seems to have a good bit of excess cash to throw around, (2) no other team has utilized this strategy yet in the Rule IV Draft, and (3) the future picks that would be sacrificed in 2016 and 2017 don't figure to be all that valuable for a couple of reasons.

But this post is not here to address that. This post is all about the options at #9 overall.

Every draft season, dozens of prognosticators and publications come out with the their top-X list, be it 100, 200, or 500 prospects. I'm not a prognosticator or a publication. I'm just a guy who likes baseball and spends lots of time watching it, reading about it, and thinking about it.

I have access to some scouting reports, but the overwhelming majority of my information comes from the growing collection of online videos showing these prospects in games. I have plenty of biases that influence my thoughts - I don't like short pitchers, I have a hard time with raw high school bats, and lefty velocity always jumps out to me - so take all of these thoughts with a grain of salt.

With all of that said, here are the 15 players I'm interested in the Cubs pursuing at #9 with a brief description of each including the player's draft-day age in parentheses, a video link, and an explanation of what I like and don't like.

1. LHP Brady Aiken
Height/Weight: 6'3"/210 lbs.
Date of Birth: 8/16/96 (18)
School: None (currently)

What I Like: Everything I liked about Aiken leading up to the 2014 draft. He's got the body, the arsenal, the mindset, and the pedigree to be a lefty ace. Those are valued about as highly as any asset in the game (consider that Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Jon Lester, Clayton Kershaw, and C.C. Sabathia all enjoy average annual values of at least $23M on their contracts). Aiken's value is through the roof, even with the Astros debacle in his rearview mirror.

Aiken's mechanics have only the tiniest amount of unnecessary movement. Accordingly, he commands a mid-70s 12-6 curveball, a very good low-80s changeup, and a massive, mid-90s fastball with a hair of tail. Aiken's heater could be the best single pitch of any starting pitcher in the Majors in 2020.

Additionally, even with a lost year, Aiken is reasonably young as he was drafted by Houston in 2014 as a 17-year-old. He's still on the proper developmental timeline.

What I Don't Like: While he's still on the right timeline, nobody gets better by going through the ordeal that the Astros put Aiken through last year and spending the subsequent year in purgatory. I don't like that he's essentially going to waste a developmental year, even if he's got the approach to put 2015 to good use.

Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: <1%

2. RHP Michael Matuella
Height/Weight: 6'7"/220 lbs.
Date of Birth: 6/3/94 (21)
School: Duke

What I Like: Matuella is a monster, yet despite his huge frame, he commands his pitches well. That's a rare skill from such a big-bodied hurler.

Those pitches? Mid-90s heater, mid-80s changeup, high-70s curveball, and mid-80s slider. Boom. That's it. The fastball has the kind of tail and dive that everyone loves.

What I Don't Like: Given the above description, Matuella would figure to be right there with Aiken atop this list. Unfortunately, there's a dreaded drawback: injury. A back injury cost Matuella a month in 2014, exacerbating fears over the durability of his large body.

Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: <1%

3. LHP Kolby Allard
Height/Weight: 6'0"/170 lbs.
Date of Birth: 8/13/97 (17)
School: High School (California)

What I Like: Low-90s heat with command, a low-80s curve with plenty of polish, and the room to grow another inch or two before he maxes out his frame. Allard is the closest thing to Aiken that I have seen in roughly nine years of following the draft.

What I Don't Like: While he resembles Aiken in many ways, Allard lacks (1) the changeup, and (2) the size to fully own the comparison. His mechanics are a bit choppier as well.

Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 5%

4. SS Brendan Rodgers
Height/Weight: 6'0"/195 lbs.
Date of Birth: Unknown
School: High School (Florida)

What I Like: Rodgers has plenty of skills that function in much the same way as Addison Russell's. Though he doesn't figure to run particularly well, the bat, power, arm, and glove are all plus from a shortstop profile. That's still about as desirable as it gets.

What I Don't Like: I don't love what Rodgers does with his hands to generate his power. I'm worried that the length of his pre-pitch load and the moving pieces in his swing will lead to strikeout problems down the road. Yes, I still like Javier Baez and Russell. Perhaps this makes me a hypocrite and I should just get over myself, embrace Rodgers, and be done with it. I'm just not there yet.

Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: <1%

5. RHP Cody Ponce
Height/Weight: 6'5"/235 lbs.
Date of Birth: 4/25/94 (21)
School: Cal Poly Pomona

What I Like: Big body, big stuff, great delivery. His consistently mid-90s tailing fastball is going to keep him employed for a while, his slider is a big mover in the mid-to-high-80s, similar to Jake Arrieta's slider/cutter. He toys around with a high-70s curveball that's primarily a get-me-over pitch but can show some devastating break, and I really like what I saw from his low-80s power curveball as he threw it all over the place to lefties. Perhaps this sequence provides the best indication of what Ponce can be. Ponce also enjoyed a tremendous summer in the Cape Cod League, suggesting that his stuff plays well even against elite competition.

What I Don't Like: I just don't like that he's at Cal Poly Pomona. It makes no sense. There may be some lingering ill-will toward Division II prospects from the Hayden Simpson experience - be that fair or not. Ponce apparently worked in the mid-80s coming out of high school, so that likely played a big role in his college choice. Ponce is the kind of guy where the advanced scouts make their money. If he's just a late-blooming monster, gobble him up. If there's some terrifying red flag, stay away. (I'm going with the late-blooming monster option.)

Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 60%

6. LHP Justin Hooper
Height/Weight: 6'7"/230 lbs.
Date of Birth: Unknown
School: High School (California)

What I Like: Upside, upside, and more upside. Hooper is 2015's Tyler Kolek, the biggest arm in the draft class with a chasm between his present self and a future Major League starter.

His fastball sits in the mid-90s and the command is solid. Huge lefties with massive fastballs tend to do really well. He also flashes a solid low-80s slider.

What I Don't Like: Hooper looks like he has basically no idea how to use his enormous teenage body at this point. He looks plenty athletic, but the mechanics suggest that he's really just trying to reign in his explosive stuff. He doesn't have the look of somebody who has harnessed his stuff yet. Hooper's floor is as a guy who doesn't make it to Double-A despite being converted to the bullpen. His curveball also leaves a lot to be desired. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the drafting team scraps the curveball in favor of the slider. The developmental path is going to be long.

Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 40%

7. OF Nick Plummer
Height/Weight: 5'11"/190 lbs.
Date of Birth: Unknown
School: High School (Michigan)

What I Like: Michigan! I like that he's from Michigan. OK, beyond just his hometown, I love that Plummer generates big lefty power with a simple, smooth stroke. His swing and finish remind me a lot of Chase Utley's. He's got a bat that should hit for good average and great power. It's tougher for me to know about his discipline and approach, though guys who spend time on the summer and prospect circuits tend to be at least passable here.

What I Don't Like: The defensive profile. It's tough to get a good read on Plummer's athleticism in videos showcasing his swing, but given the body type and his stride, it seems like he's most likely a corner outfielder. That puts a ton of pressure on the bat to play up. Perhaps there's enough athleticism there for him to spend some time in centerfield, but if his defensive profile is as uninspiring as it seems like it might be - Billy McKinney, anyone? - Plummer will have a tough time being an impact player. I also don't like that I can't find more information about his defensive profile.

Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 75%

8. OF Daz Cameron
Height/Weight: 6'1"/190 lbs.
Date of Birth: 1/15/97 (18)
School: High School (Georgia)

What I Like: The pedigree (Dazmon is Mike Cameron's son), the body, and the all-around game. Cameron should be a plus glove man like his dad, but his offensive profile offers even a bit more to dream on with a smooth stroke. Currently it looks like Cameron would be a 10-15 home run player, but he physique offers enough to see 20-25 homer power at his peak. If he mirrors his dad that well, he's an extremely useful player.

What I Don't Like: I like the swing; I don't love the swing. It's a bit hitchy and a bit long for my taste. If the swing stays long and Cameron strikes out a lot, the profile moves from impact to useful. While it's still nice to get useful players in the top ten, I have a feeling that I'd be left wanting more.

Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 25%

9. RHP Kyle Funkhouser
Height/Weight: 6'2"/215 lbs.
Date of Birth: 3/16/94 (21)
School: Louisville

What I Like: I like basically everything about Funkhouser. Smooth mechanics, four-pitch mix with a big fastball leading the way, and a plus slider ready to complement the heater. On paper, Funkhouser is as clean as they come.

What I Don't Like: I can't quite put my finger on it. Some of what I don't like about Funkhouser is that I don't see a huge ceiling. I see a good, polished pitcher who is what he is. He's got a great floor - it will be a major upset if he doesn't spend a few years in a Major League rotation - yet he has a low ceiling in my mind. He's probably no better than a #3 option. There's still that part of me that wants to find an ace when drafting this high, and I don't think that Funkhouser has that ability in him.

Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 25%

10. C   Chris Betts
Height/Weight: 6'2"/220 lbs.
Date of Birth: 3/10/97 (18)
School: High School (California)

What I Like: In order to really like Betts, you have to believe that he's a catcher. Fortunately, while that is often difficult with premium bats that have played catcher up the pipeline - as was the case with Kyle Schwarber and Alex Jackson at the top of the 2014 first round - Betts is a true catcher with a huge arm. It remains to be seen how well he develops the non-throwing portion of his game, but framing, receiving, and game-calling all require experience.

Betts has an offensive game that figures to be similar to that of Plummer with a compact stroke that should yield double-digit home runs and at least an average hit tool. He has a strong, all-around profile.

What I Don't Like: If Betts can't stick at catcher, he's a first baseman. If he's a first baseman, he's much less exciting given the 5+ projection of his power and hit tools. The defensive projection is essential and I just don't have enough information to slap a surefire catcher tag on him. If I was 90%+ confident that he was going to stick behind the plate, he'd slot in sixth between Ponce and Hooper.

11. RHP Phil Bickford
Height/Weight: 6'4"/200 lbs.
Date of Birth: 7/10/95 (19)
School: Southern Nevada Junior College

What I Like: Bickford's fastball sits in a good spot, comfortably at 93 and routinely at 95. The pitch doesn't move much, but that's the right kind of velocity. I like his 79-81 slurve: the pitch has tight rotation and solid deceptiveness.

What I Don't Like: I'm not sure if Bickford even throws a changeup. I don't think that passing on the Blue Jays to attend Cal-State Fullerton and now SNJC will hurt him all that much, though it's possible that his development will be at least somewhat stunted as a result. Bickford isn't my favorite, but the red flags are relatively minor.

Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 60%

12. RHP James Kaprielian
Height/Weight: 6'4"/200 lbs.
Date of Birth: 3/2/94 (21)
School: UCLA

What I Like: The curveball. It's only a high-80s offering, but he showed both a 12-6 hammer and a slurvier breaker that gave hitters problems. One killer pitch is nice. The righty has a nice mix with a 90 mph fastball, a low-80s slider, and a seldom-used mid-80s changeup.

What I Don't Like: Such a herky-jerky delivery. It's hard to believe that Kaprielian will ever have a truly smooth delivery, something that seriously threatens his command profile. He arches back in his windup, something that may result in command woes.

But that's not even the biggest concern. The biggest concern is the fastball. Kaprielian is big enough that you'd expect more velocity than 90-91. If he's only sitting in that range, he probably drops down this list a good bit. He likely needs to be in the 92-93 territory on a consistent basis to enter top-ten consideration.

Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 85%

13. RHP Beau Burrows
Height/Weight: 6'1"/200 lbs.
Date of Birth: Unknown
School: High School (Texas)

What I Like: His fastball/curveball combination is excellent. The fastball sits 93-94, though it is relatively straight. The curveball is the more impressive offering, a 12-6 hammer at 78-80 that he threw confidently to both righties and lefties. He occasionally threw a third pitch that I couldn't quite decipher, sitting between 83 and 86 with some downward movement. I'd believe that it was a two-seam fastball, a splitter, or a changeup. Regardless, the pitch moved well.

What I Don't Like: If I had more confidence in Burrows' frame, he'd rank higher on this list as well. He's big enough to pitch, but I'm not sure that he's big enough to stick as a starter. Fueling this concern is that Burrows generates a lot of his velocity from a rock-back in the same manner as Kaprielian. As a result, with a runner on first, Burrows loses a few tickes on his fastball. There's plenty to work with here, though the package is still pretty raw.

Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 90%

14. RHP Mike Nikorak
Height/Weight: 6'5"/205 lbs.
Date of Birth: Unknown
School: High School (Pennsylvania)

What I Like: Nikorak has a quality fastball. He works comfortably in the low-90s with the ability to pump out plenty of offerings in the 93-94 territory while sometimes slipping to 89. Still, the fastball moves well and has enough command right now to grade out as a plus pitch.

I wasn't much of a fun of his curveball, a mid-70s slurvy breaker. However, his high-70s changeup fell off of the table in extremely encouraging fashion. I'd much rather have a high schooler with a strong changeup as that offering tends to be more difficult to learn.

His delivery is plenty smooth.

What I Don't Like: The breaking ball just didn't do it for me. I think he'll need to scrap it as a professional and start from scratch. That's not encouraging. Nevertheless, on the whole, the blemishes are relatively minor for a player with such a good ceiling. Nikorak could climb this spring.

Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 95%

15. RHP Riley Ferrell
Height/Weight: 6'1"/200 lbs.
Date of Birth: Unknown
School: TCU

What I Like: Mid-90s fastball, mid-80s slider, and great command of both offerings. If you ever wanted to put together an ideal closer, just look at Ferrell.

What I Don't Like: I don't like it when a pitcher can't even stick in his collegiate rotation. It doesn't bode well for his changes of making it into a professional one. Some pitchers have bucked the trend, including recent Cubs draftee and fellow TCU alum Andrew Cashner, but when betting on a ceiling it's tough to choose an already-limited arm. I also don't love Ferrell's body as he appears a bit soft. Finally, I'm not sure that he's even been trying to throw a third pitch in games. It's nearly impossible to envision him as a starter, yet I'd only be interested in him at #9 if the Cubs thought that he could add the changeup/cutter/curveball necessary to make it as a rotation horse.

Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 99%

Overall, there are plenty of tantalizing options for the Cubs who will be available at #9.

There will also be a handful of names bandied about who I just don't want to see in Chicago. Six in particular probably deserve special mention, including the reason that I'm not enticed by them. They are:

1. RHP Walker Buehler (Vanderbilt): Buehler is C.J. Edwards 2.0: big stuff, 160 lbs. body. Unfortunately for Buehler, size cannot be taught.

2. LHP Nathan Kirby (Virginia): Kirby has a three-pitch mix as a college lefty. He should be in my wheelhouse. But I don't see the ceiling. I think he's Travis Wood if it all works out and that's not top-ten worthy.

3. SS Dansby Swanson (Vanderbilt): He's just never going to hit enough. He's in the Deven Merrero mold of collegiate shortstops who have the glove but not nearly enough bat.

4. RHP Ashe Russell (High School (Indiana)): Whippy mechanics. It's a high-stress delivery; he's going to get hurt, even if the stuff is enticing.

5. 2B/SS Ian Happ (Cincinnati): Not nearly athletic enough for an athlete-first profile. He might hit .300 someday, but he's never going to hit for power and it's tough to see an even average up-the-middle glove profile.

6. SS Alex Bregman (LSU): I should like him a lot. His swing is really simple, something that should help him make contact as a professional. I just have such a difficult time buying that (1) he's really going to hit for power, and (2) that he's actually a shortstop.

With the list complete, three things jump out to me.

First, there are very few field players. Of the 15 prospects listed, 11 are pitchers. For a team that loves to go after position players in the first round, the Cubs will either be grabbing a prospect of little excitement to me or they'll likely be breaking the mold to go for an arm.

Second, while there are few bats, there are no college bats on my top-15. None. Barring an unforeseen change, the club's streak of college bats will stop at Bryant-Schwarber.

Third, there are relatively few collegians overall. Of the 15 players listed, only five are college juniors. That's a bit deceptive given that two of the other prospects - Aiken and Bickford - will come with at least some college experience. Regardless, the crop of top prospects figures to have less polish in 2015 than it has in years past.

So there we have it. An altogether way too early look at the 2015 draft. This list may change a bit from now until early June. I'm excited to see the process unfold.