Very Late 2018 Chicago Bears Draft Grades

This post was a long time coming, so let's dispense with the rosy introduction and get right into the analysis/grades. I wrote this in mid-to-late July, spilling into the time that the Bears reported for training camp (it clearly hasn't impacted my thoughts on Anthony Miller, though!). Enjoy!

Bears Draft ILB Roquan Smith #8 Overall
Grade: C+
Analysis: I like the Smith pick, hence the slightly above-average grade. I expect that he'll be a September starter for the Bears, even if he doesn't make the Opening Day starting 11, and that the Bears will unnecessarily push Danny Trevathan out the door in February following Smith's solid debut season.

If this grade seems low, recalibrate your grading scale. A "C" is average, so this is a good grade and a solid use of a premium asset, a top-10 pick.

Bears Draft G James Daniels #39 Overall
Grade: B
Analysis: While I like the Smith pick, I love the Daniels selection. Daniels represented great value early in the second round and he serves as a strong crutch in the event that Kyle Long's myriad injuries sap his ability sooner than expected.

There were other good players to be found at this juncture, but Pace did quite well to grab a plus talent even if he didn't provide the perfect roster fit.

Bears Trade 2019 Second-Round Pick and #105 Overall to New England for #51 Overall
Grade: F-
Analysis: This is what bad/stupid teams do. They fall in love with individual players, then pay a laughable premium to land them.

Now, it's not as if it is impossible to land such good value as to justify trading up. For his faults as a general manager, Phil Emery made arguably the best Bears trade of the decade when he slid up five spots in 2012 to draft Alshon Jeffery at #45 overall. The fifth-round pick that he surrendered to climb was abundantly worth it as Jeffery blossomed into a star.

But in this trade? It is, in fact, impossible. Using the Chase Stuart draft value chart, the 51st pick is worth 9.6 draft points. The 105th pick is worth 5.0 points. Even if the Bears win the Super Bowl in 2018 and score the 64th pick in the 2019 draft, they'll send over an additional 8.1 additional points of value, making the deal a 13.1-for-9.6 trade, paying a 36% premium. More realistically, the Bears will end up with something very near the 51st pick in 2019, meaning that they gave the Patriots the 105th pick for free. Just like a dumb team would.

Many folks push back on this type of analysis, discounting the value of future picks. That makes sense for Ryan Pace: Pace has a job to keep and another bad season or two likely sees him ushered out the door. It does not, however, make sense for fans of the Chicago Bears to discount the value of future picks. The 2021 season is just as valuable to me as the 2018 season. The 2021 Bears took a huge hit with this deal.

Finally, while there is some value in getting Anthony Miller an extra year of development time with Mitch Trubisky in Matt Nagy's...but there's not this much value.

Bears Draft WR Anthony Miller #51 Overall
Grade: F
Analysis: Ugh.

This pick checks every box in "what not to do on draft day" bingo:

1. Miller was a walk-on at Memphis, not a lifelong premium athlete.
2. Miller is already 23, turning 24 in October before his fifth professional game. Miller is older than Jordan Howard and only a year younger than Allen Robinson and Jonathan Bullard. Remember: Miller has yet to play in an NFL game. Miller isn't an athlete with untapped physical upside. Who he is now, physically, is who he will be.
3. Miller is 5-foot-11, 190 pounds, lacking the premium body that generally gets receivers drafted early.
4. Miller put up his gaudy numbers in a weak American Athletic Conference.
5. Miller missed his entire redshirt freshman year with a shoulder injury, then missed the NFL Combine after suffering a dreaded Jones fracture in his foot.

None of this is to say that Miller doesn't have a chance to succeed. I like Miller's body control and physicality, two key traits for most wide receivers in the NFL. Miller's 40 time (4.48) and vertical (39 inches) were both strong. However, both were recorded at Miller's Memphis Pro Day instead of at the Combine due to his Jones fracture. The Jones fracture is, simply put, a career killer for NFL wide receivers. It's not impossible to come back from the injury -- looking at you, Sammy Watkins and Kevin Durant -- but it has derailed plenty of careers and Miller is yet to play a game on his surgically repaired foot.

There's a story to be written about Miller's career in which his stellar work ethic and attitude transform the Bears' receiving corps into a devastating group of big-play ability with Miller catching back-shoulder fade after back-shoulder fade en route to completing the climb from walk-on to NFL stardom. Do we live in that universe? I don't think so. Here's hoping I'm wrong.

(It'll be awfully interesting to track the careers of Miller and troubled former Florida Gator Antonio Callaway, the player selected with the 105th pick sent out in the Miller trade.)

Bears Draft ILB Joel Iyiegbuniwe #115 Overall
Grade: D-
Analysis: Huh? This pick remains the most perplexing move that Pace made this offseason.

In drafting Smith, picking 2016 fourth-round pick Nick Kwiatkoski, and signing Trevathan to a significant free agent contract, Pace has loaded up at inside linebacker. The position group is bursting with talent, also aided by run-stuffer John Timu.

Inexplicably, in a draft where the team lacked a third-round pick and where Pace traded away next year's second-round pick, he quadrupled down at inside linebacker, bloating the depth chart while neglecting the obvious needs for talent at outside linebacker and defensive end. Drafting for need is a bad idea. A similarly bad idea? Drafting based exclusively on your grades when you're apparently in love with players at one position.

I suspect that Iyiegbuniwe will succeed as a special teamer with the Bears and that he'll get a crack at playing every-down football in his third or fourth year. Just remember that he's a luxury item for a club that figures to give Sam Acho significant snaps this year.

Bears Draft DE Bilal Nichols #145 Overall
Grade: C+
Analysis: Nichols is a solid pick. He's the type of talent that scouts love to find and the type of risk that I appreciate from Pace. There's not much sense in the Bears drafting a plug-and-play, Power 5 conference defensive end who is currently below-average and projects to end up there. The club has to jump every NFC North team and will need to hit on some risky picks to do so.

Nichols certainly qualifies. He has the body and athleticism to be a plus starter in the NFL, even if he has only a one-in-five shot of reaching that ceiling. That's a good risk at a position where the Bears figure to get excellent production from Akiem Hicks and above-average production from Jonathan Bullard in 2018. I like this choice, even if there's nothing that makes me love it.

Bears Draft OLB Kylie Fitts #181 Overall
Grade: B-
Analysis: Much like Nichols before him, Fitts fits the boom-or-bust mold quite well. Between Lisfranc, shoulder, and ankle injuries, Fitts spent more of his time at Utah nursing injuries than playing football. His three-cone drill time (6.88 seconds) came in with Harold Landry and Sam Hubbard, suggesting the Fitts has the necessary athleticism to be a productive pass rusher.

Will he stay on the field? Probably not. But if he does, the ceiling is such that Fitts could help boost a group that desperately needs it as the fourth rushing option behind Leonard Floyd, Aaron Lynch, and Acho.

Bears Draft WR Javon Wims #224 Overall
Grade: C
Analysis: At 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, Wims is a huge target. He's rather raw for an experience collegiate player and it's likely that he'll spend a year or two on the practice squad while he works to run the types of routes that Nagy's offense demands. But with his body, solid hands, and likely some special teams ability, Wims should be able to find some NFL reps in the next year.

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In the end, this was a below-average draft for the Bears. I like the Smith, Nichols, and Fitts picks and understand most of the others. But the Miller trade and pick is the kind of sneaky crippling move that haunts a franchise while the Iyiegbuniwe selection will have an extremely difficult time returning value to the club.

The Jose Quintana Trade: A Live Text Chain, 11 1/2 Months Later

Last summer, in the midst of my family's July camping trip, Theo Epstein went bananas and shipped out the farm for a shot at Jose Quintana's contact (and, I suppose, his arm, too). With that deal nearly a year old, it's time to look back in the best way possible: by transcribing a text chain chronicling that day's discussion!

The text chain below involved me ("Rob"), my brother, Mike ("Mike"), my best friend, Joey ("Joey"), and our mutual friend, Zack ("Zack"). Now that you know the actors and the scene (everyone else was plugged into civilization whereas I was in a remote area along the Lake Michigan coast, hence spotty reception and no Internet), here goes (with only the lightest editing to make sentences, well, into full sentences)!

Mike: We traded Eloy and Cease for Quintana? Holy crap ChiSox. This feels like an overpay. The Cubs better get on a tear now.

Zack: Uh Wut?

Joey: Effin Quintana <inserts picture of "The Dude" shaking his head no in the bowling alley>

Rob: Out camping with terrible reception: can somebody please text me the full trade?

Mike: Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Matt Rose and Brian Flete for Jose Quintana.

Rob: At least Rose and Flete are nothing. Nevertheless: Theo has lost his damn mind. ChiSox would've taken this deal in January. Since then: Quintana much worse, Eloy and Cease much better. C'mon Theo.

Zack: I think Theo gets the benefit of the doubt, doesn't he?

Mike: I'm not sure if Cease wouldn't have bested Kopech for purposes of constructing a Chris Sale trade in the winter, but this is getting close to that level. My guess is Theo isn't done - I think we'll grab another starter and I wonder if there's truth to the Ian Happ or Kyle Schwarber to the Tigers rumors. I think Sonny Gray is worse but could've been had for less. I wonder how much more Archer would've cost. Most ppl think Eloy is one of the games top 5 hitting prospects. I can live with Cease going. While we have no other high end pitching prospects besides him, trading him is worthwhile for 3 years of control of a good MLB starter.

Rob: I honestly wonder if Theo even realizes that he just made the Jeff Samardzija trade.

Mike: Probably. Btw - perhaps he should go get Samardzija.

Rob: Except, of course, that the cost of the extra year of Quintana is apparently the cavernous gap between Cease and nothing. I'd be happy to bring Shark back, but what the hell is he gonna use for ammo? Re benefit of the doubt: Theo sure as shit knows how to sell. I'm not sure if he knows how to buy all that well. Eloy was a consensus top-10 overall prospect on every mid season list. He'll be in the Majors by this time next year. As assets, he's more valuable than Quintana, straight up. Desperate teams always pay a tax for their desperation; I get that. This seems extreme.

Mike: Shark is a rental who gives up lots of HRs. Candelario, La Stella, Zagunis, De La Cruz, Clifton, Ademan.

Rob: Shark has 3.5 years left on deal. Not a rental at all. If I could poo poo platter my way to Shark, I'd do it in a heartbeat. Ask yourself this: how much would you pay for Jake Arrieta right now if he had two club options? Jake's FIP (4.17) is a rounding error away from Quintana's (4.01). The Cubs just paid for an ace and got a guy who had been a #2 before being a #3/4 this year. They better hope that most of his struggles were the result of a general malaise for playing for a tanking team. BTW: which Chicago tam will be better in 2020? Final point: sure feels like the Cubs paid a huge talent premium to get Quintana's controlled dollars. Think about the Ricketts avoiding the luxury tax instead of assembling the most talented roster the next time you drop $11 for a beer.

Mike: Jake is still a top 40 pitcher. That guy gets a start in a playoff series. He doesn't start game 1 like Archer would.

Rob: For the Cubs, yes. For the Nats? Or Dodgers? Or even the D-Backs? Probably not.

Mike: If Hahn gets next year's draft pick right, he will have built a better prospect stable than Theo did during the Cubs rebuild. Of course, he started with more impact talent to trade away.

Rob: I'm waiting for you guys to tell me that Mike said I was going camping with spotty internet so you decided to play an elaborate prank on me. A bit more, yes. But Theo should have had an extra $50M/year to spend on talent acquisition.

Zack: Theo brought us a World Series title and ended the curse. I trust him. Everything else is pure speculation. How many "can't miss" prospects have missed? In Theo I trust.

Rob: That's true. Also true: he also built this year's 43-45 team that has a run differential of 0 in baseball's worst division. And the "waves and waves of talent?" That was a lie. There was one wave, it was awesome, but it won't have reinforcements coming. The system is probably bottom-5 overall now. For the Cubs in the Theo era? Literally none, unless you count Arismendy (who wasn't Theo's). Everyone else was a smash hit, hence the World Series win and Happ being the third best player on this year's team.

Zack: Yeah I'm not that worried. They have had 2 very long years of exceptional baseball. A hangover is to be expected. If they can get it together, great, but I'm not going to throw in the towel.

Mike: Sahadev and Greenberg are both surprisingly positive on this one.

Rob: Let's put it this way: a top-5 hitting prospect a year from the Majors is worth something like $50-70M as an asset, maybe higher now. A back-end top-100 prospect is worth something like $20M. Factor in Quintana's salary (about $34M remaining) and the Cubs surrendered about $115M for 3.5 years of Quintana. Even in a crazy expensive marketplace, that's a laughable rate.

Mike: But you're talking value, not actual dollars. Actual dollars are what the Ricketts are spending. Watch Heyward explode next year then opt out. If not, Eloy is worth less to us than others, although I'm not really higher on this right now than you are. I didn't see a scenario where they'd trade him and I'd want an Archer type guy in return for doing so.

Rob: Rick Hahn: "Cubs offer was far and away the best offer we received." That's great if you're the Sox. Not so great if you're the Cubs. Talent resources are limited and this marks the second straight summer that Theo has used the far more precious resource - talent - to acquire players instead of using Ricketts cash. I resent the hell out of that. True, it may not be Theo's fault that his hands are tied financially, but it still sucks for fans. Yes, Eloy is worth less to Cubs than to other teams. But only about .1% less. He looks an awful lot like a middle-of-the-order bat 1.5 years from now, controllable for 6+ years. The Cubs have had the likes of Zobrist, Heyward, and Russell hitting in the 4/5 spots. And the Cubs are two games under .500. They need impact talent just like every other team, and whether it comes from an outfielder or a pitcher is irrelevant for a team that has scored and surrendered nearly an average amount of runs.

Zack: Also, Eloy is a dumb name. Can we get any trade value from Addison? Send him and Jeimer to the D for Justin Verlander (and Kate Upton).

Well, there we have it. A year later and the concerns of this deal have only been exacerbated as Quintana's velocity dropped while Eloy's OPS continued to soar. There's no certainty yet that this deal will end poorly for the Cubs...but it doesn't look good.

Best Trade Fits for the Bears at #39

This is purely an exercise in using the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, both because I'm interest in this exercise and because I'm still reeling from the con job that the Packers pulled on the Saints last night.

The Bears' best fit tonight is a deal with Carolina, pure and simple. Carolina holds their own 2nd round pick (#55) and two 3rd round picks (#85 and #88); naturally, a team with multiple 3rd rounders is likely the best best to be willing to move one. The value of #39 is 510 points. #55 is valued at 350 while #85 is 165 and #88 is 150. Accordingly, #39 for #55 and #85 would return 515 points while #55 and #88 would return 500 points. Either deal would be wonderful for the Bears and a huge win on the Chase Stuart chart (15.4 outgoing; either 20.4 or 20.1 incoming). The Bears best scenario when considering a deal with Carolina is that UTEP G Will Hernandez, Colorado CB Isaiah Oliver, Iowa CB Josh Jackson, or Alabama S Ronnie Harrison remains on the board when the Bears pick at #39. That might be an uphill battle with Cleveland picking at #33 and #35, Indianapolis picking at #36 and #37, and Tampa Bay picking at #38. All three teams have desperate needs in their secondary. Then again, a mini-run on defensive backs could kick up the sense of urgency that a team like Carolina feels to make a move to address their defensive backfield and/or could provide the value needed if Hernandez slips.

The next most likely scenario in my mind centers around the Cincinnati Bengals and their bevy of mid-round picks. The Bengals hold their own pick in the 2nd round (#46), their regular 3rd rounder (#77), a compensatory 3rd rounder (#100), their 4th rounder (#112), and three 5th rounders (#151, #158, #170). The Bears' best bet with Cincinnati is that they fall in love with South Dakota State TE Dallas Goedert and fear that the Dolphins or Patriots do too. In that case, the Bears could send #39 to Cincinnati for #46 (440, 13.9) and #112 (70, 5.9), a perfect match on the Jimmy Johnson chart that would give the Bears a 28% premium on the Stuart chart.

I think my favorite possibility, though something of a complicated deal, involves Denver. The thinking goes like this: Denver passed on their pick of non-Mayfield, non-Darnold quarterbacks last night at #5. It's probably just because Bradley Chubb was such incredible value. But what if they really believe in Case Keenum or Paxton Lynch as the guy? In that case, this may be a one-year turnaround in their minds. Could they get jealous of Cleveland and Indianapolis making two picks at the top of the 2nd round and want to get in on the fun? If so, I could see a deal where the Bears send #39 to Denver for #71 (235, 9.8), #99 (104, 6.9), #104 (86, 6.5) and next year's 3rd round pick. That's a big transaction. Pace would be trading a shot at more firepower for a shot at substantially more depth. Using the last pick of the 3rd round (112, 7.1) as the 2019 compensation, the Bears would receive 537 points for 510, using no discounting. However, that's also 30.3 points on the Stuart chart, nearly double the 15.4 of pick #39. This is a philosophical test. From a plausibility standpoint, the Broncos have two 4th and two 5th rounders in 2018 and an extra 5th in 2019, so they have a stable of picks from which to deal.

It's not impossible for me to envision a scenario in which the Colts fall in love with multiple prospects at the top of the 2nd round and decide to use some of their later-draft ammunition to move up. The Colts pick at #49 (410, 9.8), so they could use that pick and #104 (86, 6.5) to swap with the Bears (510, 15.4 outgoing; 496, 16.3 incoming).

A final possible alignment is a follow-up deal between Ryan Pace and John Lynch. Lynch found his quarterback when he acquired Jimmy Garoppolo and he protected him with Mike McGlinchy at #9. He has some nice toys in Marquise Goodwin, Pierre Garcon, and even Trent Taylor. But the 49ers' starters are 6'0", 5'9", and 5'8". They need a big body for Garoppolo to target in the red zone. Enter Courtland Sutton. If he's available at #39, it'll be awfully tough for San Francisco to pass on him. The Niners have #59 (310, 11.6), #70 (240, 10), and #74 (220, 9.4 - the Bears' pick sent over in the Trubisky deal). #59 and #74 together come awfully close to making this deal work (510, 15.4 outgoing; 530, 19.4 incoming). With Allen Robinson, Kevin White (ha!), Trey Burton, and Adam Shaheen, the Bears are brimming with big-bodied targets. They can pass on Sutton and target a smaller receiver later. With Christian Kirk, Anthony Miller, James Washington, Dante Pettis (watch out for injuries!), DaeSean Hamilton, and even Cedrick Wilson or Braxton Berrios (who seems destined for New England) on the board, the Bears can be patient. For the 49ers, it's likely Sutton or a project. If they're thinking about winning in 2018 -- and having ended 2017 on a 6-1 run, why wouldn't they be? -- Garoppolo likely needs this additional target.

Pace already flipped the script last night, choosing a safer, scheme-diverse pick with his top pick instead of choosing the athletic specimen who needs to develop. Will he flip the 2nd round script too, staying put at #39 or even trading up? Or will it be more of the same (in a good way!), trading down to accumulate picks? Clarity will come this evening.

Looking at Pick #39

With Roquan Smith on board, the Bears' draft picture has cleared up in a major way...in that they won't draft another inside linebacker. Huh, that's it? Actually, I suppose that the forecast wasn't cleared up all that much.

The team's biggest positional needs remain at outside linebacker, wide receiver, cornerback, offensive line (the exact position is flexible), and defensive end. The team's biggest overall needs remain starting-caliber bodies and depth. It likely goes without saying that I'd love to see the Bears trade down from #39 tomorrow night. Unlike my pipe dream of Ryan Pace trading back in the 1st round, there's a reasonably good chance that he'll trade down tomorrow night: last year, Pace dropped from #36 to #45, picking up two 4th rounders in the process and improving his 7th into a 6th a year after picking up two 4th rounders for dropping from #41 to #49 before dropping again to #56, picking up an additional 4th rounder in the process. For a team that remains light on depth, such a move would be ideal, especially given the lack of a 3rd round pick tomorrow thanks to last year's Trubisky trade.

For this exercise, however, I'm going to presume that Pace stays put at #39.

Thankfully, the board has broken as well as could be hoped for the Bears.

The two positions of most glaring need are outside linebacker and wide receiver. Leonard Floyd, Aaron Lynch, and Sam Acho project as the rotation outside. Floyd is extremely injury prone, Lynch has 2.5 sacks total over the past two years, and Acho played each of the last three seasons on minimum salary deals. This need is glaring. Wide receiver isn't all that much prettier where the unplayable Josh Bellamy is 4th on the depth chart with two of the three wideouts ahead of him having missed nearly all of 2017 due to injury. Gulp. The defensive backfield needs another playable body or two while the offensive line need can be filled flexibly with a tackle prospect sliding in at guard or a center pushing Cody Whitehair back to guard.

There are some seriously strong options at #39, many of whom would have the opportunity to challenge for playing time on opening day. Here's my preference list for the pick:

1. OLB Arden Key (LSU)
----- This presumes that the front office is comfortable with Key. They're almost certainly not, so this is mostly a dream for another world.

2. OLB Harold Landry (Boston College)
----- Landry doesn't have Key's immense athleticism, but he's quick and insanely flexible. It might take him some time to grow into an every day role, but the Bears would be able to utilize his pass rushing skills immediately while he does that growing.

3. G Will Hernandez (UTEP)
----- I like him just as much as Quenton Nelson. So sue me.

4. C James Daniels (Iowa)
----- He should be a great fit for the interior of the line in Matt Nagy's offense given his impressive quickness.

5. OLB Rasheem Green (USC)
----- Crazy athletic, quite raw.

6. CB Holton Hill (Texas)
----- He's got that Tillman-esque build that I love.

7. WR Christian Kirk (Texas A&M)
----- He's grown on me over the past few months. He's got the quick-twitch movements to be a stud.

8. WR Courtland Sutton (SMU)
----- He's got the big frame and strong hands to be a plus receiver. He didn't have to play much in traffic or even regularly high-point the ball, but there's a dead homeless man's Alshon in there somewhere.

9. CB Isaiah Oliver (Colorado)
----- He might need a year or two to get outside, but he can help in the slot in the interim while developing his technique. The size/speed combo is there and it's tough to find.

10. G/C Austin Corbett (Nevada)
----- He's like Cody Whitehair 2.0.

11. CB Josh Jackson (Iowa)
----- I still don't know if he's fast enough to make it work.

11 is enough prospects for tonight. I do love Maurice Hurst and think that he'll make a fine pro. I just don't think he'll do it in a 3-4.

Predictions for the Top Eight Picks Tonight

There are seemingly endless mock drafts and draft thoughts floating around the internet right now, but with the first round just a few hours away, it's time to make a specific pick for what happens. So here goes:

1. Cleveland Browns: QB Sam Darnold (USC)
----- I don't buy all the hubbub about Baker Mayfield.

2. New York Giants: QB Josh Allen (Wyoming)
----- They can't pick this high and not take a quarterback...right? With Eli getting another year or two, they can wait for Allen to develop to see if that helps him reach his ceiling.

3. New York Jets: QB Josh Rosen (UCLA)
----- Of all the teams to be afraid of a big personality, I think the Jets embrace Rosen just fine.

4. Cleveland Browns: RB Saquon Barkley (Penn State)
----- This pick has a great chance to be traded, but in the end, I think that the Browns make the play for the elite back to help carry the load while Darnold develops.

5. Denver Broncos: QB Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)
----- Elway wouldn't immediately seem to be a natural fit for Mayfield, but I suspect that Mayfield's big personality will be a plus for Elway, not a deterrent.

6. Indianapolis Colts: DE Bradley Chubb (NC State)
----- I'm sure that the Colts would prefer to trade this pick, but if Chubb or Barkley makes it to #6, they'll hold the pick and do a jig.

7. TRADE: San Francisco 49ers: G Quenton Nelson (Notre Dame)
----- The 2015 draft, where the first traded pick was #15, was an anomaly. Accordingly, I expect the trade action to pick up with a vengeance at this juncture. The 49ers give Indianapolis the fourth rounder they got in the Vance McDonald trade to jump the Bears and nab Nelson. Tampa Bay has huge needs in the secondary and at offensive tackle, so they can move down a few spots and still get a great player at a position of maximum need.

8. Chicago Bears: DB Minkah Fitzpatrick (Alabama)
----- I really, really, really want Pace to trade down. But I don't think he'll do it here (wait for round two on that front). Instead, he adds a dynamic piece to his secondary in the mold of Jalen Ramsey, a plus athlete who played all over the defensive backfield in college. Will I love this pick? Meh. After pouring huge assets into the cornerback position in free agency, with two average-or-better starting safeties in house, and with a gaggle of bottom-of-the-roster recent draftees to fill up the defensive back depth chart, this wouldn't be my pick. But in a passing league, it's tough to hate this kind of move.

Major takeaway: I don't think you'll see any trades among the top six picks because the teams drafting at the top all need quarterbacks and the teams drafting immediately behind them will have too hard of a time passing up on the draft's best talents sitting on the board. The real action starts with Tampa Bay, from where the draft could come completely unhinged. I hope so: that'd be fun!

A Dream Scenario for the Bears Tomorrow Night

Last week, I wrote a post covering the likely scenarios for the Bears with the 8th overall pick, ranking them from most preferable (like drafting Charles Tillman and Lance Briggs in the same 2003 class) to least (like drafting Cedric Benson 4th overall).

Today, I'm doing something that is more fun for me: putting together the dream scenario for tomorrow night. It's rare that the Bears have been in such an obvious trade down situation, but that's where they find themselves tomorrow. The seven picks prior to Chicago's figure to be littered with quarterbacks, which means two things: first, quarterback-needy squads later in the draft figure to get restless, and second, the teams immediately ahead of the Bears figure to nab elite talents -- like Penn State RB Saquon Barkley, North Carolina State DE/OLB Bradley Chubb, and Notre Dame G Quenton Nelson -- later than they might in a draft that featured fewer upper-echelon quarterbacks. With that in mind, here's my dream scenario:

1. Cleveland: QB Josh Allen (Wyoming)
----- Allen is the top QB with the best chance of slipping in the draft. That's impossible if he goes #1.

2. New York Giants: QB Sam Darnold (USC)
----- Another QB.

3. New York Jets: QB Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)
----- Teams drafting in the teens are now terrified that there won't be any quarterbacks left!

4. Cleveland: RB Saquon Barkley (Penn State)
----- I adore Saquon and I genuinely believe that he can be a catalyst that helps turn things around in Cleveland. Thus, I'm either prescient or a chump. It'll be tough for Cleveland to pass on Chubb if he's still here, but in this dream scenario, the Browns passing on Chubb is essential. If he goes to Cleveland, the dream scenarios become much less likely.

5. Denver: G Quenton Nelson (Notre Dame)
----- This is a key pick: if Denver loves Nelson, they're disinclined to trade back. I don't want the Bears drafting a pure guard this high. It's been generations since a college guard drafted this highly worked out.

6. Indianapolis: DE Bradley Chubb (NC State)
----- Chubb is a top-3 talent in just about every draft. He's too good to pass up on here for Indy, preventing another trade.

7. Tampa Bay: LT Mike McGlinchy (Notre Dame)
----- This one requires three factors working together in unison. First, Tampa has to have given up on former Penn State stalwart LT Donovan Smith. Second, Tampa has to love McGlinchy. Third, Tampa requires solid intel that Chicago, San Francisco, or Oakland will pick McGlinchy is he's on the board. In that perfect storm scenario, Tampa has to stay at #7 to get their man in order to keep Jameis Winston upright.

The above scenario is almost too good to be true for the Bears, though it's hardly far-fetched. It results in only Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson remaining on the board at quarterback. At that point, the Bears need more than one of Miami, Buffalo, Arizona, Baltimore, New England, or New Orleans to be head over heels for one of these guys. Every team in the league knows that the Bears (at #8), 49ers (at #9), and Raiders (at #10) aren't taking a quarterback, so leverage will have to come in the form of external competition. Miami makes plenty of sense -- Ryan Tannehill has only been OK, is coming off of a knee injury, and was drafted three GMs ago. Buffalo and Arizona both had recent success with older QBs but are looking to reset at the position. New England and New Orleans both need succession plans, though ponying up for the move to #8 may prove too rich for those clubs.

Unfortunately for the Bears, potential trade partners will be able to use San Francisco and Oakland as leverage against Chicago. Fortunately for the Bears, if there are enough teams involved, that issue should be mitigated.

Buffalo is my top choice in a trade partner. At #12, Buffalo's pick is close enough to the Bears' to move down and plausibly maintain a shot at a top target. Accordingly, the Bears swing the following deal:

Chicago trades #8 overall (21.4 CS, 1400 JJ) to Buffalo for #12 overall (18.8, 1200) and #65 overall (8, 265)

The Bears only pick up a hair of extra value on the Johnson chart, but this is a big boost on the Chase Stuart chart, a 25% increase in value. That matters a lot for the Bears.

From here, I'd be plenty content with the Bears picking LB Tremaine Edmunds (intentionally listed as merely "LB" given his versatile ability to play inside on early downs before shifting into a pass rushing role on later downs, if necessary), ILB Roquan Smith, CB Denzel Ward, DB Minkah Fitzpatrick, OLB Marcus Davenport, or WR Calvin Ridley at #12. Each pick makes tons of sense.

But do you know what makes even more sense? Leveraging access to Washington NT Vita Vea and trading down again.

Washington (NFL edition) is likely to make a play for Vea at #13, so any team desiring to draft the behemoth lineman will need to get to #12. The Chargers, Dallas, Detroit, and Atlanta all make sense for such a move as teams in win-now mode that would love a plug-and-play talent like Vea in their interior. As a result, Ryan Pace really changes his draft by making the following deal:

Chicago trades #12 overall (18.8, 1200) to Atlanta for #26 overall (13.9, 700), #200 overall (1, 11.4), and Atlanta's 2019 1st round pick

Woah. Atlanta struck out in free agency when it came time to replace Dontari Poe, so they're looking for a big piece in the middle of their defense. I'm not certain as to where Atlanta thinks they are on the win curve -- they could be headed for a mini-rebuild -- but if they're pushing for the Super Bowl again, this kind of move makes some sense. For the Bears, it's a no-brainer as the chance to get another 1st round pick is simply too enticing, especially since NFL front offices apply such hefty discounts to future picks given the likelihood that some other general manager has the job by then.

I had considered a big deal with New England, but it doesn't really make sense. At some point, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are going to decide to move on from football. That time could well be in the next two years. Making a big move and mortgaging a future pick only makes sense if the Patriots are going to face a rebuild in the coming years. Here's hoping that the time is now and that the Bears are involved. Unfortunately, it won't be for Vea after the Pats sent their 2019 3rd rounder to Cleveland for Danny Shelton.

At #26, the Bears could hope to land Boston College OLB Harold Landry, Iowa CB Joshua Jackson, UCLA OT Kolton Miller, Michigan DE Maurice Hurst, or Georgia G Isaiah Wynn, among others. Any of those picks would be fine.

In the end, the Bears would be dropping all the way from #8 to #26, a drop of 700 points on the Jimmy Johnson chart (equivalent of the #26 pick itself) and 7.5 points on the Chase Stuart chart (equivalent of the #70 overall pick). That's a lot of value. In exchange for their troubles, they'd pick up #65 overall, #200 overall, and a future 1st rounder. That's the kind of talent influx that the Bears need to fill out the roster: lots of bodies. That'd wrap things up for the team.

Unless...

What if the Jaguars decide that Lamar Jackson is an ideal successor at quarterback, especially in a run-first attack, who just needs another year or two to develop? What if New Orleans agrees? Well, then...

Chicago trades #26 overall (13.9, 700) to Jacksonville for #29 overall (13.2, 640) and #129 overall (3.7, 43)

The Bears would target the same players, scooping up a pick at the end of the 4th round for their troubles as Jacksonville jumps the Saints to get their man. That extra 4th round pick would likely give them plenty of ammunition with which to trade back into the mid-to-late 3rd round if necessary should a favorite prospect slip to the 80s or 90s like Penn State WR DaeSean Hamilton, Alabama CB Anthony Averett, USC OLB Uchenna Nwosu, or Kansas OLB Dorance Armstrong, to say nothing of extreme boom-or-bust candidate LSU OLB Arden Key.

This post is relatively straightforward: unlike most rebuilding teams, the Bears have shed picks instead of acquiring picks in recent years. It's time to acquire some extra picks, Ryan.

And please, oh please, don't draft a collegiate interior offensive lineman at #8.

Scenarios for the Bears in the First Round of the 2018 NFL Draft

Last year, I wrote a similar post on draft night. Despite the fact that the Bears were picking third overall, the actual outcome -- trading up to #2 overall for Mitch Trubisky -- wasn't on my list of possibilities. Had it been, it would have rated in the bottom third of 15 possible outcomes.

This year, the range of possibilities is enormous. The difference from picking eighth and picking third encompasses so many additional outcomes as to make touching on all of them nearly impossible. So, instead, I'll focus on the most likely scenarios, preemptively grading them so as to avoid claims of hot-take grading.

But first, a few general rules. For every scenario listed below, trading down/adding extra picks would make each scenario move up a few spots. For example, drafting versatile Virginia Tech LB Tremaine Edmunds at #8 is currently the eighth ranked outcome (it's also the top-ranked likely scenario). But if Pace trades down a spot or three and still nabs Edmunds, that's clearly preferable. Similarly, trading up/surrendering extra picks to get a player always moves that choice down on this list.

1. A whole bunch of teams love the quarterbacks in this class, and at least three of Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield, and Lamar Jackson go in the top four picks, creating a mad scramble among teams to get into the top ten in order to secure their quarterback of the future. The Patriots find this to be an ideal time to purchase Tom Brady's successor but they want to hold onto at least one 2018 first rounder in order to help their quarterback, so Pace nabs three New England selections: #31 overall, #43 overall, and their 2019 first-round pick. The Bears would surrender 1,400 points on the Jimmy Johnson chart in exchange for 1,070 2018 points and at least 590 2019 points, before any discounting. That's a nice haul and perhaps the Patriots are willing to pay such a premium in order to keep that 23rd overall pick with which to help Brady this year. On the Chase Stuart chart, the Bears would surrender 21.4 points but acquire a staggering 35.8 at a minimum. NFL trades tend to follow the Johnson chart, more or less, while the Stuart chart conveys the actual value of extra draft picks. Teams should almost always seek to acquire extra picks. Trading a top-ten pick for three top-50 picks certainly qualifies. Pace likely only makes a deal like this one because of his extra job security by virtue of his recent extension.

2. Almost everything as set out above, except it is the Bills that make the move to #8, surrendering either #12 and #65 (1,465 JJ; 26.8 CS), or #22, #56, and #65 (1,415 JJ; 31.9 CS). At #12, the Bears still get LB Edmunds or Georgia ILB Roquan Smith. At #22, the Bears get OLB Harold Landry or OLB Marcus Davenport.

3. Almost everything as set out above, except it is the Cardinals that make the move to #8, surrendering #15 and #47 (1,480 JJ; 27.5). At #15, the Bears still get LB Edmunds, ILB Smith, OLB Landry, OLB Davenport, or Notre Dame OT Mike McGlinchy.

4. Chaos ensues at the top of the board, inexplicably landing OLB Bradley Chubb in Chicago at #8.

5. Chaos ensues at the top of the board, inexplicably landing RB Saquon Barkley in Chicago at #8. Pace then flips RB Jordan Howard for a third rounder (this scenario slides up or down depending on the Howard compensation).

6. The most chaotic scenario: Cleveland takes their new franchise quarterback at #1 overall, but after the Giants pass on a QB in favor of someone else (likely Barkley), Cleveland is berated with phone calls at #4. They make a deal with Buffalo (#12), acquiring extra picks in the process. The Browns are floored when OT McGlinchy is on the board at #8, so they send #12 and #64 (1,470 JJ; 26.9 CS) to the Bears for #8. At #12, the hope remains that LB Edmunds or ILB Smith is around.

7. Chaos ensues at the top of the board, inexplicably landing RB Barkley in Chicago at #8. Pace confusingly holds onto RB Howard, leaving the roster overloaded with Barkley, Howard, and Tarik Cohen.

8. Pace lands LB Edmunds at #8. This is still a very good outcome. Edmunds is an exceptional athlete who should be able to be a force both in coverage and run defense as he grows into his role as a pass rusher from the outside. I love his prospect status, even if I have a slight concern that he's the next Amobi Okoye (a guy who's easy to dream on as a 19-year-old in the draft, but who peaks as a solid starter and take a few years to get there).

9. Pace lands ILB Smith at #8. This is still a good outcome even though I prefer Edmunds to Smith.

10. The most chaotic scenario, part deux: Cleveland takes their new franchise quarterback at #1 overall, but after the Giants pass on a QB in favor of someone else (likely Barkley), Cleveland is berated with phone calls at #4. They make a deal with Baltimore (#16), acquiring extra picks in the process. The Browns are floored when OT McGlinchy is on the board at #8, so they send #16 and #35 (1,550 JJ; 28.9 CS) to the Bears for #8 and #105 (1,484 JJ; 26.4 CS). I don't love wheeling and dealing without adding at least one extra pick in the first four rounds, but there's value in this deal. At #16, the hopes are probably OLB Landry, OLB Davenport, WR Calvin Ridley, CB Denzel Ward, or DB Minkah Fitzpatrick.

11. Pace lands Ohio State CB Ward at #8. This is an OK outcome. Ward is a good corner prospect. He's not huge (5'11", 183 lbs.) but he runs like a NFL corner and has strong ball skills with the footwork to pull it all together. I wouldn't love this pick but I'd like it.

12. Pace lands Alabama DB Fitzpatrick at #8. This is also an OK outcome, which surprises me. Some of Fitzpatrick's value comes from his ability to play in the slot, a spot where he'd figure to get most of his early time with the Bears. I don't like the idea of drafting a safety so highly given the presence of strong young duo Adrian Amos and Eddie Jackson, but Fitzpatrick has enough versatility to play 800+ snaps. That makes his selection OK, even if it isn't tremendous value. Side note: I'm squeamish about Alabama defensive backs thanks to Dee Milliner. I thought he'd be a star, he tested wonderfully, and he flamed out of the league in three years anyway. Man, the draft is tough.

13. Pace lands Florida State S Derwin James at #8. I like James better as a prospect than Fitzpatrick, but I sense that James is a true safety, despite his apparent scheme versatility in college. This is both high for a safety and doesn't fill a need. I wouldn't like this outcome all that much.

14. Pace lands Iowa CB Joshua Jackson at #8. This is much too high for Jackson, who has good size but failed to quiet concerns about his speed at the Combine (though his Pro Day was better). Big bodies who don't run that well --> second day picks, not top-ten picks.

15. Pace picks Alabama WR Ridley, SMU WR Courtland Sutton, or Maryland WR D.J. Moore at #8. This would sting. Letting Cam Meredith walk is over and done with, though the move gnaws at me even though I don't have access to Meredith's medicals. Drafting the solid-but-unspectacular looking Ridley in the top-ten would pour salt in the wound; ditto Sutton and Moore.

16. Pace lands seemingly everybody's favorite fit as G Quenton Nelson falls to #8. I dislike this move in general: the Bears had an above-average starter in-house, let him go to clear cap space (presumably) that they didn't use, then invest a premium pick in his replacement. Gross. Sure, Harry Hiestand is happy, but the team isn't much better off, if at all. This is much too high for a guard anyway. The supposed "can't miss" guard prospects of the last 20 years have all overwhelmingly disappointed.

17. Pace panics in his desire for a linebacker with Edmunds and Smith both surprisingly off the board and reaches in a big way for Boise State ILB Leighton Vander Esch. Vander Esch shouldn't have to carry the burden of Shea McClellin, but he does, at least a little bit in my mind. Vander Esch plays faster than he tested, has a good build, and looks like he'll be a plus pass defender in the NFL. I'm not sure about his run defense, but he'd be a viable target in a trade down scenario.

18. Pace settles on Nelson...who gets snapped up from under his nose at #6/#7. Pace panics. Like, really panics, and drafts Georgia G Isaiah Wynn after 15 spots too soon. Ugh.

19. Pace falls in love with somebody other than G Nelson, trading up to #6 or #7 to get his man. This likely means Edmunds, Fitzpatrick, James, or Ward.

20. Pace falls in love with Chubb or Barkley, trading up into the top-five to get his man.

21. Pace falls in love with G Nelson, trading up to #6 or #7 to get his man.

22. Pace falls in love with G Nelson, trading up into the top-five to get his man.

***The above doesn't include the true top scenario for the Bears, which is obviously that Notre Dame WR Equanimeous St. Brown slips to the fourth round where Pace gobbles him up, adding a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver at a muted draft cost, simply because Brandon Wimbush couldn't throw.