Chicago Bears Mock Offseason: OL Spending Spree Edition

No need for a lengthy introduction here. We're well into the offseason at this point. I've delved deeply into roster decisions, salary cap forecasting, and free agency prospecting in numerous mock offseasons, like this one here. The quick and dirty summary:

1. The Bears will cut TE Gerald Everett and S Jonathan Owens. This will utilize just $3.375M of dead cap space.
2. GM Ryan Poles will need to decide whether to allocate $4M of cap space to G Ryan Bates, who will hopefully be penciled into a reserve role. Bates has no guarantees left, but a year removed from paying a 5th rounder for him, the guess here is that Poles keeps Bates, possibly requesting that he take a modest pay cut that can be recouped by being active on gamedays.
3. Free agency offers numerous attractive starting options on the OL and at DE; it does not offer the same depth of options at DT.
4. The Bears will head into 2025 with a new coach. Here's hoping that Ben Johnson is better than the last four!

Free Agency

OK, there actually is one big change here that is undeniably negative for the Bears: the NFL salary cap increased a good bit more than expected. The Bears previously enjoyed top-five cap space as a significant marginal advantage over the rest of the league, but with the new cap projection, the Bears figure to lose some of their ability to win free agency battles now that so many other teams picked up about $5M of space.

Estimating the base cap at $279M and factoring in the Bears' $5.1M of rollover cap from 2024, the Bears start with a cap number of $284.1M. Their top-51 contracts following the releases of Everett and Owens total $207M with $3.8M of dead cap bringing the total hit to $210.8M. That leaves $73.3M. Keeping $20M dry for the draft class, practice squad, and in-season moves is plenty conservative, so let's say they enter free agency with $53.3M of net cap space available for spending.

Because they will surely let injury-prone LG Teven Jenkins walk, they'll be looking for at least three starters on the offensive line along with help on the defensive front. Given the troubling concussion issues that have appeared for S Jaquan Brisker, a S may be on the menu, too.

Now that PFF has published contract projections, I'll utilize those below. The big change for this mock: ESPN has named the Bears as the top fit for both Kansas City G Trey Smith and Atlanta C Drew Dalman. Could the Bears really go to the top of the market at two interior OL spots? Let's see what the offseason looks like if they do.

1. Sign OG Trey Smith to a 4-year, $82M deal with $50M guaranteed. Break the bank for the best player at a position of desperate need. This isn't complicated. Park Smith next to RT Darnell Wright and secure the right side as QB Caleb Williams develops. (I've long had Smith pegged at 4/$88M with $65M guaranteed. I think PFF is light.) It's worth noting that Smith has production and pedigree to fuel his free agency, but collegiate blood clots could scare some teams away just like they did during the Draft.
2. Sign C Drew Dalman to a 4-year, $46M deal with $27.5M guaranteed. This doesn't require the same level of bank breaking given Dalman's injury history.
3. Sign DT Levi Onwuzurike to a 2-year, $16.5M deal with $10M guaranteed. I have routinely mocked Philadelphia DT Milton Williams in this spot and PFF projects Williams for $21M on his next deal...per year! That'll be far too rich for Poles, so instead let's have Coach Johnson lure Onwuzurike to Chicago to join the rotation and add some pop. Onwuzurike is consistently productive, but he's got strikingly little game experience after sitting out his RS JR season at Washington during the pandemic and playing just 560 snaps in his first three NFL seasons combined. He's 27 and his 697 snaps in 2024 were really impressive, so perhaps his market ends up higher than this.
4. Sign DE Derek Barnett to a 1-year, $4.25M deal. Barnett isn't a difference maker, but he's a solid citizen along a defensive line in need of some.
5. Sign OT Jedrick Wills to a 1-year, $3M deal. A reunion with Kevin Zeitler would've made sense were it not for Smith. Unfortunately, almost all of the top free agent interior offensive linemen play RG, so we're going to take an unconventional approach and following the Mekhi Becton plan, signing Wills to try him at LG. If he flops, so be it.
6. Sign TE Austin Hooper to a 1-year, $3M deal. I do this one every year. That TE2 spot has been a disaster for years and, unfortunately, Gerald Everett has been a massive flop.
7. Sign S Quandre Diggs to a 1-year, $3M deal. Diggs is coming off of a Lisfranc injury and he's 32, but he should be ready for 2025. He's a nice insurance policy for Brisker.
8. Sign S Jaylon Jones to a 1-year, $1M deal. Keeping an RFA.

The above spending utilizes about $47.8M of net cap space, so this leaves a big chunk of dry powder in case extensions are advisable, especially for CB Kyler Gordon. If LT Braxton Jones and S Jaquan Brisker are able to stay healthy and produce, in-season extensions that utilize 2025 cap space could also be on the table.

NFL Draft

As I always do, I completed all of the above moves prior to running a mock draft on PFF. Entering the Draft, the needs are obvious: an impact DE, a potential LT (who doesn't have to start in 2025 but needs the ceiling of a star), another rotational DT, possibly a CB to step in for Tyrique Stevenson if Stevenson goes full pumpkin, a S to potentially follow Brisker and Byard, and a pass catcher, whether at WR or TE. If there's a developmental C, too, that's nice.

The Bears do have the tasty 39th pick from Carolina as the final piece from the Bryce Young trade, but this year's 4th rounder belongs to Buffalo thanks to the Austin Booker trade last year. With only four picks that can be reasonably counted on to produce 2025 starters, this is a tall task.

With that in mind, here we go!

Bears Trade #10 and #241 to Cincinnati for #17, #49, and #81

My rule at #10 remains the same as last month: if Penn State DE Abdul Carter or Michigan DT Mason Graham inexplicably slips to #10, make the pick and jump for joy. Otherwise, target a trade down. This is appropriate value as the additional 2nd and 3rd offer great value in spots where I really like this class.

#17: LSU OT Will Campbell

Huh. I did not see this coming. Texas LT Kelvin Banks Jr. was also available and I figured he stood a good chance to be the pick here. But someone always falls and, in this draft, it was Campbell. Perhaps teams didn't want to pick him higher than this if he's solidly a G on their board? Who cares! He's the perfect starter at LG who can project as a LT in year two and beyond.

#39: Ole Miss DE Princely Umanmielen

I'm very high on Umanmielen. He made a good choice to come back to school. He'd be a great fit on this roster.

#41: Texas DT Alfred Collins

This will feel too early for Collins for some folks. For me, it's not. He is a potential star with a unique physique that plays an essential spot. Obviously I would've preferred getting him later, but I couldn't risk him coming off the board between here and #49.

#49: Notre Dame S Xavier Watts

Had Minnesota LT Aireontae Ersery made it here, he would've been the pick. But he didn't, so plug-and-play S Watts it is. He's a tremendous consolation prize for a safety room that has both Brisker and Byard in their walk years.

#72: West Virginia OT Wyatt Milum

I still think Milum is going to go in the 1st round by late April. Milum is so darn good and he's ready to be a plus player right away. There's talk of him kicking inside to G. Obviously he's only the pick if the Bears are confident that at least one of Campbell or Milum can play LT by 2026. Arizona LT Jonah Savaiinaea also warrants considerable consideration here.

For a team that has been so light on OL talent for so long, just get Milum in the building and figure it out later.

#81: Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr.

The options were voluminous: Savaiinaea, South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori, Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin Jr., and Kentucky DT Deone Walker are all very attractive options. But, ultimately, Winston is too good to pass up here. Winston had a 1st-round grade before a partial ACL tear ended his season in early September. The Bears can afford to bring him along slowly, if necessary, but he should be at full speed in camp.

Bears Trade S Kevin Byard to Las Vegas for #106

I don't know if this is fair value for Byard, but it seems a little rich to me. But, with Watts and Winston joining Brisker and with Diggs in house as a security blanket, Byard turns back into draft capital while also taking most of his cap hit to Vegas, leaving just $1.5M of dead cap behind and generating $7M of cap space.

#106: Kentucky DT Deone Walker

Nice! Walker would've been good at #81. At #106, this is tremendous. He's absolutely massive and is an ideal 1-tech if he continues to develop. In this DT room, he gets time to grow.

#148: Illinois WR Pat Bryant

Bryant doesn't have star potential, but he does bring solid citizen vibes. The Bears could use that in the WR room that desperately lacks depth behind Moore and Odunze.

#196: Texas Tech TE Jalin Conyers

Conyers is a great athlete in a somewhat undersized frame. He brings positional versatility playing in the backfield and on the edge, something that is ideal for a player in this spot on this roster.

#234: LSU WR Kyren Lacy

Important caveat: PFF is much lower on Lacy than most other services. It's fair to wonder why. Don't focus too much on Lacy specifically. Instead, think "possible WR/RB/TE contributor" in this spot.

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

TE (3): Cole Kmet, Austin Hooper, Jalin Conyers

WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Pat Bryant, Tyler Scott, Kyren Lacy, FREE AGENT

OT (3): Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Wyatt Milum

OG (4): Trey Smith, Will Campbell, Jedrick Wills, Kiran Amegadjie

C (2): Drew Dalman, Ryan Bates

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Prince Umanmielen, DeMarcus Walker, Austin Booker, Derek Barnett

DT (5): Gervon Dexter, Levi Onwuzurike, Andrew Billings, Zacch Pickens, Deone Walker

ILB (2): Tremaine Edmunds, FREE AGENT

OLB (3): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT

CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, FREE AGENT

S (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Quandre Diggs, Xavier Watts, Jaylon Jones

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

Here's my evidence that this was legitimately run through PFF's simulator:

As is always the case, this isn't a perfect roster. The WR room is in deep trouble with an injury to Moore or Odunze. The TE room needs Kmet to stay healthy and productive. The RB room is hilariously thin.

Despite all of that, this is a team that is dramatically better in the trenches on both sides of the ball. I say that every time, but this is the truest example. And the draft gets to be a true "Bears Draft" as it features five defensive players among the top seven picks.

This is definitely my new favorite mock; that would've been true even swapping out Campbell for Banks. I nailed my goals on both lines in this mock. That's a recipe for success.

Chicago Bears Mock Offseason: End of January 2025 Edition

The last time I ran a mock offseason, the Bears hadn't won since mid-October. They eventually did win again, but not until the calendar flipped to 2025. Yikes. Thankfully, there's only one football game left in the 2024 season before all 32 teams turn their focus to the offseason. We don't need to wait.

I've delved deeply into roster decisions, salary cap forecasting, and free agency prospecting in numerous mock offseasons, like this one here. The quick and dirty summary:

1. The Bears will cut TE Gerald Everett and S Jonathan Owens. This will utilize just $3.375M of dead cap space.
2. GM Ryan Poles will need to decide whether to allocate $4M of cap space to G Ryan Bates, who will hopefully be penciled into a reserve role. Bates has no guarantees left, but a year removed from paying a 5th rounder for him, the guess here is that Poles keeps Bates.
3. Free agency offers numerous attractive starting options on the OL and at DE; it does not offer the same depth of options at DT.
4. The Bears will head into 2025 with a new coach. Here's hoping that Ben Johnson is better than the last four!

Free Agency

The Bears figure to have about $66.2M of cap space to utilize in signing players after keeping $20M of their $86.2M dry for signing draft picks and making in-season moves. Because they will surely let injury-prone LG Teven Jenkins walk, they'll be looking for at least three starters on the offensive line along with help on the defensive front. Given the troubling concussion issues that have appeared for S Jaquan Brisker, a S may be on the menu, too.

Now that PFF has published contract projections, I'll utilize those below.

1. Sign OG Trey Smith to a 4-year, $82M deal with $50M guaranteed. Break the bank for the best player at a position of desperate need. This isn't complicated. Park Smith next to RT Darnell Wright and secure the right side as QB Caleb Williams develops. (I've long had Smith pegged at 4/$88M with $65M guaranteed. I think PFF is light.)
2. Sign DT Levi Onwuzurike to a 2-year, $16.5M deal with $10M guaranteed. I have routinely mocked Philadelphia DT Milton Williams in this spot and PFF projects Williams for $21M on his next deal...per year! That'll be far too rich for Poles, so instead let's have Coach Johnson lure Onwuzurike to Chicago to join the rotation and add some pop.
3. Sign OG James Daniels to a 1-year, $5.5M deal with $3M guaranteed. A reunion with Kevin Zeitler would've made sense were it not for Smith. Unfortunately, almost all of the top free agent interior offensive linemen play RG, so the Bears bring Daniels back after a few years in Pittsburgh. Daniels admittedly played RG for the Steelers, but he began his career at LG and C in Chicago, performing well. He's still just 27, so this is a nice flyer as he returns from an Achilles injury and allows players to develop behind him without being forced into action.
4. Sign C Coleman Shelton to a 2-year, $10M deal with $6M guaranteed. I'm not sure exactly where Shelton's market is at the moment, and he's already 29. However, after a truly dreadful September, he improved significantly at the pivot in Chicago. While I've previously hunted for Drew Dalman here, I can see the value in keeping Shelton given his continuity and modest expected price tag, especially given the hefty payday likely coming Dalman's way.
5. Sign DE Derek Barnett to a 1-year, $4.25M deal. Barnett isn't a difference maker, but he's a solid citizen along a defensive line in need of some.
6. Sign TE Austin Hooper to a 1-year, $3M deal. I do this one every year. That TE2 spot has been a disaster for years and, unfortunately, Gerald Everett has been a massive flop.
7. Sign S Quandre Diggs to a 1-year, $3M deal. Diggs is coming off of a Lisfranc injury and he's 32, but he should be ready for 2025. He's a nice insurance policy for Brisker.
8. Sign S Jaylon Jones to a 1-year, $1M deal. Keeping an RFA.

The above spending utilizes about $50.5M of net cap space, so this leaves a big chunk of dry powder in case extensions are advisable, especially for CB Kyler Gordon. If LT Braxton Jones and S Jaquan Brisker are able to stay healthy and produce, in-season extensions that utilize 2025 cap space could also be on the table.

NFL Draft

As I always do, I completed all of the above moves prior to running a mock draft on PFF. Entering the Draft, the needs are obvious: an impact DE, a potential LT (who doesn't have to start in 2025 but needs the ceiling of a star), another rotational DT, possibly a CB to step in for Tyrique Stevenson if Stevenson goes full pumpkin, a S to potentially follow Brisker and Byard, and a pass catcher, whether at WR or TE. If there's a developmental C, too, that's nice.

The Bears do have the tasty 39th pick from Carolina as the final piece from the Bryce Young trade, but this year's 4th rounder belongs to Buffalo thanks to the Austin Booker trade last year. With only four picks that can be reasonably counted on to produce 2025 starters, this is a tall task.

With that in mind, here we go!

Bears Trade #10 and a 2026 5th to Seattle for #18, #50, and a 2026 2nd

My rule at #10 remains the same as last month: if Penn State DE Abdul Carter or Michigan DT Mason Graham inexplicably slips to #10, make the pick and jump for joy. Otherwise, target a trade down. This is appropriate value as the additional 2nds are quite attractive.

#18: Georgia DE Mykel Williams

Williams is a perfect addition to this roster. A 4-3 DE that fits the roster well and offers top-flight projection.

#39: South Carolina DT T.J. Sanders

I really like Sanders. He's got a tremendous first step and a class 3-technique body.

#41: East Carolina CB Shavon Revel

I really hated how the board broke in this draft. There was a huge early run on OL, leaving none of my favorite targets in the 1st or 2nd rounds. So, Revel it is!

Bears Trade CB Tyrique Stevenson to Pittsburgh for #85

Stevenson is Dan Quinn in Atlanta after 28-3. It's not going to work for him in Chicago. So, especially with Revel on board, Stevenson ships out.

Bears Trade #50 to Pittsburgh for #53 and #121

It's a small drop and my targets should be there still. That said, I was hoping that Penn State S Kevin Winston would be one of my options; he didn't make it.

#53: Minnesota OT Aireontae Ersery

Ersery is slipping some in PFF's eyes. I don't care. I love him as a prospect, enough to take Ersery over a bevy of other prospects I like even more like Iowa S Sebastian Castro, Texas DT Alfred Collins, and especially Notre Dame S Xavier Watts.

Oh well: the Bears need a big-time developmental OL option.

#72: Iowa State WR Jayden Higgins

Georgia LB Jalon Walker was still on the board; if that was remotely possible, he'd be the pick here.

Instead, though, it's Higgins. A young replacement for Keenan Allen with whom Williams can develop rapport over the coming years.

#85: Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson

I'm not hunting for a back in this draft, but I can't pass up Henderson at this point given the quality players added before him. Had either of the two players drafted ahead of him made it here -- South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori and Georgia OG Tate Ratledge -- they would've been the pick instead.

#121: Oregon TE Terrance Ferguson

This is an easy choice in this spot. Ferguson can play a meaningful role right away, and Hooper isn't a long-term fit for the squad, so it's essential to find a plausible TE2 in this draft at this point. Ferguson and Ole Miss TE Caden Prieskorn would both work.

#148: Iowa OG Connor Colby

Colby can reach and run, but he's undersized. So, give him a year to put on another 10 pounds and see if he can bulk up to hold up enough in pass protection. He adds another body with Daniels and Amegadjie to raise the floor in the interior.

#197: Tennessee WR Dont'e Thornton

A key recruiting loss for Penn State a few years ago, Thornton has a great frame and little chance to stick as a long-term NFL option. But there's a good starter kit here.

#235: Kansas CB Cobee Bryant

Bryant is ludicrously light in the 170s, but it's worth a shot here to see if he can bulk up enough to stay on the field.

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, TreVeyon Henderson, FREE AGENT

TE (3): Cole Kmet, Austin Hooper, Terrance Ferguson

WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Jayden Higgins, Tyler Scott, Dont'e Thornton, FREE AGENT

OT (3): Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Aireontae Ersery

OG (4): Trey Smith, James Daniels, Kiran Amegadjie, Connor Colby

C (2): Coleman Shelton, Ryan Bates

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Mykel Williams, DeMarcus Walker, Austin Booker, Derek Barnett

DT (5): Gervon Dexter, Levi Onwuzurike, T.J. Sanders, Andrew Billings, Zacch Pickens

ILB (2): Tremaine Edmunds, FREE AGENT

OLB (3): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT

CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Shavon Revel, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, Cobee Bryant

S (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Quandre Diggs, Jaylon Jones, FREE AGENT

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

Here's my evidence that this was legitimately run through PFF's simulator:

As is always the case, this isn't a perfect roster. The WR room is in deep trouble with an injury to Moore or Odunze. The OL is riddled with injury histories. There are a lot of players who need to develop.

Despite all of that, this is a team that is dramatically better in the trenches on both sides of the ball. And the draft gets to be a true "Bears Draft" as it features three straight defensive players to start before throwing the QB a bone (he got some help via free agency, too).

This is not my favorite mock. I nailed my goals on the defensive line, but I'm bummed to have missed on the 1st round OTs. But Ersery really takes the edge off.

Previewing Penn State and Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl

JFF's tenure sure has been a whirlwind. In the sanctions years of 2014 and 2015, Nittany was spunky but crappy, yielding a pair of 7-6 seasons led by future NFL Draft mega-bust Christian Hackenberg. 2016 got off to a brutal start with a close loss at Pitt and a 39-point loss at the Big House. Then they won nine straight, including a win over Ohio State and a Big Ten championship. Two losses in 2017 by a combined four points en route to an 11-2 season capped by a New Year's Six win. Two tight losses in 2019 en route to another 11-2 season capped by a NY6 win. 2020 was...whatever. 2021 was brutal disappointment after brutal disappointment: losses by 3 (Iowa), 2 (Illinois in 9OT), 9 (@ OSU), 4 (Michigan), and 3 (@ MSU) before a bowl season full of opt-outs.

2016-19 featured a bevy of big upset wins, but also a few losses as solid favorites; here's looking at you, Sparty.

2022-24 has been the opposite. Nittany is 34-1 as a favorite, with the lone loss coming in last year's Peach Bowl with a shell roster full of opt-outs. Conversely, they're 0-6 as underdogs.

That 0-6 record is bad news for me, given that Notre Dame is a 1.5-point favorite. But it's good news for TV viewers: only 2022 Michigan was a blowout (24-point loss) whereas the other five games were tight. A 13-point loss v. OSU where Nittany led with 10 minutes left, an 8-point loss @ OSU, a 9-point loss v. Michigan (the infamous 32 straight runs game), a 7-point loss v. OSU, and an 8-point loss v. Oregon.

It got me thinking: how did Nittany do against the spread in these matchups? Well...

• 2022 @ Michigan: Spread: +7. Result: 17-41. Result v. spread: -17
• 2022 v. OSU: Spread: +15.5. Result: 31-44. Result v. spread: +2
• 2023 @ OSU: Spread: +4.5. Result: 12-20. Result v. spread: -3.5
• 2023 v. Michigan: Spread +5.5. Result: 15-24. Result v. spread: -3.5
• 2024 v. OSU: Spread: +3. Result: 13-20. Result v. spread: -4
• 2024 v. Oregon: Spread: +3. Result: 37-45. Result v. spread: -5

Not great, Bob! They failed to cover in five of the six games despite only getting blown out in one of those six losses.

Speaking of not getting blown out...

Franklin got absolutely walloped by the first four top-10 ranked opponents he faced at PSU, losing to 2014 MSU, 2015 OSU, 2015 MSU, and 2016 Michigan by a combined 176-46. Non-competitive. Since then, Nittany has faced 19 top-10 opponents. Nittany is just 5-14 straight up with 40% of those wins coming in the last two weeks...but they're 11-8 against the spread. And, among those 8 non-covers, they were within 5 points of the spread six times. The only two times they failed to cover by more than 5 were a pair of shellackings at the Big House in 2018 and 2022.

The Orange Bowl is not the Big House and Notre Dame is not Michigan. Add it all up and the odds are pretty darn clear: Nittany should lose a close game by between 2 and 8 points.

Prepare for heartbreak, Nittany Nation!

But wait a minute. Is it possible that Drew Allar and the Penn State offense can flip the script, propelling Penn State to victory? Sure! It's possible. And there's two players that I see as most likely to fuel the win if it happens, the guys that everyone is talking about:

Khalil Dinkins and Luke Reynolds.

Huh? It's really quite simple. Penn State lives in 12 personnel with either Dinkins or Reynolds joining Tyler Warren on the field, and even leans into 13 personnel with regularity, featuring all three on the field at the same time. If this sounds like what Michigan, Iowa, and Illinois have tried to do to Penn State over recent years, that's because this is precisely the type of gameplan that Penn State has been on the receiving end of recently.

So, lean into it. Penn State's WRs stand basically no chance of getting open against Notre Dame's secondary, and even when Drew Allar throws them dimes on 50/50 balls, they catch almost none of them. So take them out of the gameplan. Run an offense that features Trey Wallace out wide with one of Omari Evans/Julian Fleming/Liam Clifford rotating on the other side to keep the defense honest. That frees up a TE to block a S or even a CB. This is surely Penn State's best path to victory. Notre Dame is an independent team that is really an ACC team -- their scheduled featured 5 ACC teams, 2 Big Ten teams, 2 MAC teams, 2 service academies, and 1 SEC team -- and their Big Ten opponents (Purdue and USC) don't play "Big Ten" football. Notre Dame hasn't had to face a team that lives in 12 personnel until facing Georgia with their backup QB. Notre Dame's win last week was arguably the most impressive win that any team has had in the CFP this season, Penn State should absolutely make them do it again. If Penn State avoids handing ND touchdowns via turnover and special teams, this game can turn into a rock fight. Penn State's offensive line and rushing attack give them the best chance to win a rock fight.

I'm going to stick with my original prediction from earlier this week and say that Penn State suffers an excruciating loss with a weird score: 17-15 Irish.

But, if I had a little more courage, I'd pick Allar to heavily feature Dinkins and Reynolds in a surprisingly aggressive passing day that effectively ignores the WR room. Come on, Nittany. We Are!

Chicago Bears Mock Offseason: End of 2024 Edition

The Bears haven't won since mid-October. Yikes. Let's move back to the offseason. I've delved deeply into roster decisions, salary cap forecasting, and free agency prospecting in numerous mock offseasons, like the most recent detailed one here. The quick and dirty summary:

1. The Bears will cut G Nate Davis (already gone!), TE Gerald Everett, and S Jonathan Owens. This will utilize just $3.375M of dead cap space.
2. The GM -- whether Ryan Poles or his replacement -- will need to decide whether to allocate $4M of cap space to G Ryan Bates, who will hopefully be penciled into a reserve role. Bates has no guarantees left. Given his numerous injury issues this year and the likelihood of a new regime entering the picture, let's assume that Bates is gone.
3. Free agency offers numerous attractive starting options on the OL and at DE; it does not offer the same opportunities at DT.
4. The Bears will head into 2025 with a new coach. Here's hoping he's better than the last four.

Free Agency

The Bears figure to have about $70.2M of cap space to utilize in signing players after keeping $20M of their $86.2M dry for signing draft picks and making in-season moves. Because they will surely let injury-prone LG Teven Jenkins walk, they'll be looking for at least three starters on the offensive line along with help on the defensive front. Given the troubling concussion issues that have appeared for S Jaquan Brisker, a S may be on the menu, too.

1. Sign OG Trey Smith to a 4-year, $88M deal with $65M guaranteed. Break the bank for the best player at a position of need. This isn't complicated.
2. Sign S Tre'Von Moehrig to a 3-year, $24M deal with $15M guaranteed. Moehrig is a reliable starter who has played at least 900 snaps in every season of his career while producing roughly league-average results. There's value here in his run defense even though his coverage will likely be a liability.
3. Sign DT Milton Williams to a 3-year, $21M deal with $15M guaranteed. Williams has grown into a nice complementary piece in Philadelphia. With this deal, the Bears kick him up into a top-three rotational job.
4. Sign OG Kevin Zeitler to a 1-year, $8M deal guaranteed. This is a bet that Kiran Amegadjie improves significantly with a full offseason to round back into form and settles into a long-term home at G. If he doesn't, former Bear James Daniels makes considerably more sense as the target here. Zeitler instead comes in as a placeholder to help Amegadjie along.
5. Sign C Coleman Shelton to a 2-year, $10M deal with $5M guaranteed. I'm not sure exactly where Shelton's market is at the moment, and he's already 29. However, after a truly dreadful September, he has changed the story at the pivot in Chicago. While I've previously hunted for Drew Dalman here, I can see the value in keeping Shelton given his continuity and modest expected price tag.
6. Sign DE Darrell Taylor to a 1-year, $3M deal. Taylor has been a solid addition who isn't good enough to command even a low-level starting gig in free agency.
7. Sign TE Austin Hooper to a 1-year, $3M deal. I do this one every year. That TE2 spot has been a disaster for years and, unfortunately, Gerald Everett has been a massive flop.

The above spending utilizes about $56M of net cap space, so this leaves a big chunk of dry powder in case extensions are advisable, especially for CB Kyler Gordon. If LT Braxton Jones and S Jaquan Brisker are able to stay healthy and produce, in-season extensions that utilize 2025 cap space could also be on the table.

NFL Draft

As I always do, I completed all of the above moves prior to running a mock draft on PFF. I only made one edit to PFF's draft tool and it's a big one: the draft order. It's a bad year to be a (likely) 4-13 team as the Bears will end up drafting 7th, 8th, or 9th with that record. For reference, the 4-13 squad in the worst draft position over the three years of the 17-game schedule era selected 4th, 3rd, and 5th. Oh boy. Given that the Panthers and Jets each have two games remaining against desperate teams, I dropped the Bears to 9th in the draft order.

Entering the Draft, the needs are obvious: an impact DE, a potential LT (who doesn't have to start in 2025 but needs the ceiling of a star), another rotational DT, possibly a CB to step in for Tyrique Stevenson if Stevenson goes full pumpkin, a S to potentially follow Brisker and Byard (along with Moehrig), and a pass catcher, whether at WR or TE. If there's a developmental C, too, that's nice.

With that in mind, here we go!

#9: Penn State DE Abdul Carter

I have my concerns about Carter. He was wiped out by West Virginia's Wyatt Milum and, to a less extent, by Minnesota's Aireontae Ersery. But he was the best DE in the country in spite of those performances, and he's the kind of jet-powered explosive rusher that the Bears so desperately need. Carter is the choice.

Carter and Michigan DT Mason Graham are the only two players here for whom I wouldn't consider trading down.

Bears Trade #39 to Denver for #54, #86, and #123

The best players are the board here were DEs that I liked, especially Ole Miss DE Princely Umanmielen. Having drafted Carter, however, the value of a trade was far higher than double-dipping at DE. So, a trade that brings back additional starters.

Unfortunately, in securing the value of the trade, the guy that I really wanted -- Ole Miss DT Walter Nolen -- went at #40. Ugh. So...

Bears Trade #41 to Buffalo for #61, #62, and #130

I don't like this trade at all. But so it goes. No more pick trades now; this roster needs players!

#54: Ole Miss DE Princely Umanmielen

Huh? I just finished explaining why I didn't draft Umanmielen at #39. At #54 though? Yes please! Because of this pick...

Bears Trade DE Darrell Taylor to Seattle for #183

PFF's algorithm would've netted a much better return, but I find that unrealistic. So, instead, I traded back for the pick that the Bears sent Seattle for Taylor in the first place. That seems fair enough.

While we're dealing players from the roster, there's one guy that needs a fresh start...

Bears Trade CB Tyrique Stevenson to Los Angeles Rams for #87

Stevenson's Bears tenure ended on the infamous Hail Mary against Washington. This recoups decent value for him given that he's a reasonably productive corner when he isn't being a doofus.

#61: Texas CB Jahdae Barron

Barron is the modern NFL corner: supremely confident, aggressive, and with his hands on the ball all the time. He slides right into Stevenson's role for the new regime.

#62: Kentucky DT Deone Walker

There are four 2nd round DTs I like: Texas' Alfred Collins, Walker, Nolen, and Tennessee's Omar Norman-Lott. I like them in that order relative to their expected draft slot. Collins is really interesting...but I just missed out on him. So, Walker it is. He's not particularly good, yet, but he is 6'6", 345 lbs. How do you let that go?

#73: Iowa S Sebastian Castro

Castro is far from my favorite S and he lacks prototype size and athleticism. He is productive, however, and he should be able to play early. There's value in that, especially if Brisker is unable to return. Penn State's Kevin Winston Jr. almost made it here; that would've been awesome.

#86: Ohio State G Donovan Jackson

Jackson looks like a G to many folks, but some still see him as a LT. Who cares? He's a good OL who can come play for the Bears!

#87: Georgia G Tate Ratledge

OK, bear with me. You're probably looking at Jackson and Ratledge going back-to-back after the spending spree that netted Trey Smith and thinking "Rob, you know that you only play two Gs at a time, right???" And that's fair. So here's my thinking: this means that (i) Amegadjie develops at OT instead of G, (ii) Jackson and Ratledge both get time to develop, and, most notably, (iii) this is a bet that Ratledge (or perhaps Jackson) can become the heir apparent to Shelton at C. Ratledge has the demeanor to immediately become the centerpiece of the revamped OL. Get him in the building and figure it out.

Bears Trade #123 to Kansas City for #133 and a 2026 5th

OK.

#130: Kansas RB Devin Neal

Neal is a nice fit for what D'Andre Swift does: catch passes and juke. Cool.

#133: Oklahoma LB Danny Stutsman

I don't know if Stutsman is good, but he's big and could plausibly step into Tremaine Edmunds' shoes when he departs, likely after 2025.

#145: Oregon WR Evan Stewart

Whew. This is tricky. Stewart is a great college player, but it seems unlikely that he'll survive in the NFL. He is extremely slight and gets easily blown off of his routes. However, he tends to get open and creates plenty of separation; if he's open, who cares that he doesn't break tackles?

#183: Iowa TE Luke Lachey

Lachey wasn't good this year. But he's an Iowa TE who is available here. Duh.

#199: Iowa S Xavier Nwankpa

Yes, a third Hawkeye and a second Hawkeye S! I love Nwankpa; I like him the best of these three options. He doesn't run that well, but he's good at football.

#228: Penn State RB Nicholas Singleton

PFF hates Singleton. I don't get it. He looks like an NFL starter to me. But I expect him to return to Penn State next year, so this isn't the most relevant pick. Michigan's Kalel Mullings was also available and he'd do nicely here, too.

My last mock went unreasonably well. This one, on the other hand, was a complicated mess. It's not bad, per se, but there's an outrageous amount of complication here.

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, Devin Neal, Nicholas Singleton

TE (3): Cole Kmet, Austin Hooper, Luke Lachey

WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Evan Stewart, Tyler Scott, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

OT (3): Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Kiran Amegadjie

OG (3): Trey Smith, Kevin Zeitler, Donovan Jackson

C (2): Coleman Shelton, Tate Ratledge

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Abdul Carter, DeMarcus Walker, Austin Booker, Princely Umanmielen

DT (5): Gervon Dexter, Milton Williams, Andrew Billings, Zacch Pickens, Deone Walker

ILB (2): Tremaine Edmunds, Danny Stutsman

OLB (3): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT

CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Jahdae Barron, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, FREE AGENT

S (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Tre'Von Moehrig, Sebastian Castro, Xavier Nwankpa

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

Here's my evidence that this was legitimately run through PFF's simulator:

As is always the case, this isn't a perfect roster. The WR depth chart isn't good; an injury to Moore or Odunze really scuttles the room. The RB room is fine. There are a lot of players who need to develop. Mostly notably, this is way too many picks!

Despite all of that, this is a team that is dramatically better in the trenches on both sides of the ball. And the draft gets to be a true "Bears Draft" as it features five straight defensive players to start before throwing the QB a bone (he got some help via free agency, too).

This is not my favorite mock. I nailed my first goal with Carter, but whiffed on #2 -- there's no plausible LT added to this roster, so the pressure remains on Jones and Amegadjie. But it'd be good enough.

Chicago Bears 2025 Mock Offseason: Thanksgiving Week Edition

As the Bears prepare to head to Detroit so the Lions can cook them for Thanksgiving dinner on Thursday, it's time for another look at what this winter and spring could have in store for the Bears. I've delved deeply into roster decisions, salary cap forecasting, and free agency prospecting in numerous mock offseasons, like the most recent one here. The quick and dirty summary:

1. The Bears will cut G Nate Davis (already gone!), TE Gerald Everett, and S Jonathan Owens. This will utilize just $3.375M of dead cap space.
2. The GM -- whether Ryan Poles or his replacement -- will need to decide whether to allocate $4M of cap space to G Ryan Bates, who will hopefully be penciled into a reserve role. Bates has no guarantees left.
3. Free agency offers numerous attractive starting options on the OL and at DE; it does not offer the same opportunities at DT.
4. The Bears will head into 2025 with a new coach. Here's hoping he's better than the last four.

Free Agency

The Bears figure to have about $66.2M of cap space to utilize in signing players after keeping $20M of their $86.2M dry for signing draft picks and making in-season moves. Because they will likely let injury-prone LG Teven Jenkins walk, they'll be looking for a couple of starters on the interior offensive line along with help on the defensive front. Given the troubling concussion issues that have appeared for S Jaquan Brisker, a S may be on the menu, too.

1. Sign OG Trey Smith to a 4-year, $88M deal with $65M guaranteed. Break the bank for the best player at a position of need. This isn't complicated.
2. Sign DE Josh Sweat to a 2-year, $28M deal with $15M guaranteed. DeMarcus Walker has turned into a decent DE2 who offers nice value on his current deal, but he's nice the pass rusher that a guy like Sweat is. The defense needs an infusion up front. Actually, Walker is such decent value that...
3. Trade DE DeMarcus Walker to Miami for #98 overall. After signing Sweat, retaining Taylor (below), and moving into year two with Booker, converting Walker into draft capital makes a whole lot of sense.
4. Sign WR Diontae Johnson to a 2-year, $24M deal with $10M guaranteed. This probably still seems a bit heavy for Johnson given how disastrous his stay in Baltimore has been thus far, but it protects the Bears against a scenario where they don't find a good third option in the draft.
5. Sign C Coleman Shelton to a 2-year, $10M deal with $5M guaranteed. I'm not sure exactly where Shelton's market is at the moment, and he's already 29. However, after a truly dreadful September, he has changed the story at the pivot in Chicago. While I've previously hunted for Drew Dalman here, I can see the value in keeping Shelton given his continuity and modest expected price tag.
6. Sign DE Darrell Taylor to a 2-year, $8M deal with $4M guaranteed. Taylor has been a solid addition who isn't good enough to command even a low-level starting gig in free agency.
7. Sign TE Austin Hooper to a 1-year, $3M deal. I do this one every team. That TE2 spot has been a disaster for years and, unfortunately, Gerald Everett has been a massive flop.

The above spending utilizes about $55M of net cap space, so this leaves a big chunk of dry powder in case extensions are advisable, especially for LT Braxton Jones and CB Kyler Gordon.

NFL Draft

As I always do, I completed all of the above moves prior to running a mock draft on PFF. I only made one edit to PFF's draft tool and it's a big one: the draft order. While the Bears are currently slated to pick 12th based on the standings, they're headed for no better than 7-10 this year. The best 7-10 team picked at #11 in last year's draft, the 7-10 Bears picked 9th, and the best 6-11 team picked 7th. Given the prevalence of truly dreadful teams with records worse than Chicago's at the moment -- here's looking at you, Panthers, Giants, Raiders, Jaguars, Titans, Browns, and Patriots -- but the lack of teams projected to be just a tick worse than the Bears, I'll split the difference and put the Bears at #8.

With that in mind, here we go!

Bears Trade #8 to Los Angeles Chargers for #25, #57, #126, and a 2025 2nd round pick

The options here are tough. The top two DEs were on the board in Penn State's Abdul Carter and Texas A&M's Nic Scourton. The top five OTs were also there in LSU's Will Campbell, Texas's Kelvin Banks Jr., Ohio State's Josh Simmons, Minnesota's Aireontae Ersery (who devoured Carter yesterday), and West Virginia's Wyatt Milum. The trade-down options were enticing, but they all represented big drops. In the end, however, it came down to two options: Carter or the trade. As much as I love him, I have cold feet on Carter after watching him get swallowed up by both Ersery and Milum this year. So, the trade won the day.

#25: Minnesota OT Aireontae Ersery

I didn't want to take Ersery at #8, and I figured that meant saying goodbye to all five OTs...but that wasn't the case. At #25, this is an easy choice, even with other favorites on the board. Ersery probably doesn't start from the jump, but he offers a ceiling for this OL that is impossible to pass up. He also enables Kiran Amegadjie to kick to OG opposite Trey Smith, strengthening the interior.

Bears Trade #40 and #126 to Los Angeles Chargers for #33

I turned around and sent that 4th rounder back to the Chargers to move up to the top of the second round. With a chance to change the status quo at DT, I had to do it...

#33: Michigan DT Kenneth Grant

Grant is a unicorn: a 6'3", 340 lbs. NT who moves well enough to stay on the field in passing sets while forming the foundational anchor of a run defense. This is a no-brainer if he lasts this long. I hate trading up on principle, but sometimes it's the obvious choice.

#39: Georgia DE Mykel Williams

I was really hoping Ole Miss DE Princely Umanmielen would make it here -- he went at #36 -- but Williams is one heck of a consolation prize. Despite his twitched-up body and imposing frame at 6'5", 265 lbs., he hasn't been much of a pass rusher thus far. This is a bet on his athletic profile and age, as Williams was the #6 overall recruit in the class of 2022.

#57: Arizona OG Jonah Savaiinaea

The extra Chargers pick let me get my hands on one of my favorite players in this class. Savaiinaea will be announced as an OT, but given the makeup of this Bears roster at this point, he'll immediately kick inside and compete with Amegadjie to start. Savaiinaea is gigantic at 6'5", 336 lbs., and he spent half of his collegiate career at RG before kicking out to OT. I'm not sure if he helps the rushing attack, but I'm extremely confident that Savaiinaea helps keep the pocket clean against interior rushers for the rest of Caleb Williams' rookie deal.

#80: Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin Jr.

This is getting silly. With all due respect to Michigan TE Colston Loveland, Fannin is the only TE I've seen this year that made me wonder whether Tyler Warren was the best TE in the country. Fannin's frame is slight, especially for an NFL TE, but he absolutely embarrassed both Texas A&M and Penn State defenders (13 grabs for 281 yards and a pair of scores) in his premier opportunities. There will be a lot of discussion about what Fannin can't do as the draft approaches...but at #80 overall, focus instead on what he can do. Is this an overreaction to Gerald Everett? No. It might be a reaction to Everett, but Fannin is just that good.

Bears Trade #98, #182, and #187 to Arizona for #85

Again, my good luck continues, so I trade up twice for the first time in...maybe ever? It's an easy choice, because...

#85: South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori

Have you ever wondered what it would be like if former Notre Dame and current Ravens S Kyle Hamilton was somehow even faster...but also much worse at football coming out of college? Meet Nick Emmanwori! I don't think he'll make it out of the 2nd round and he could sneak into the 1st round, so nabbing him here is the easiest choice in the whole draft.

#153: Illinois WR Pat Bryant

Bryant is a really nice get here. He's been very productive, has good size, and brings enough athleticism to the table. 

To be perfectly honest, the draft went unreasonably well. Between the initial Chargers trade and getting Ersery-Grant-Williams in the same class, this is beyond a dream scenario. Here's the roster at the end:

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

TE (3): Cole Kmet, Austin Hooper, Harold Fannin Jr.

WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Diontae Johnson, Tyler Scott, Pat Bryant, FREE AGENT

OT (3): Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Aireontae Ersery

OG (3): Trey Smith, Kiran Amegadjie, Jonah Savaiinaea

C (2): Coleman Shelton, Ryan Bates

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Josh Sweat, Mykel Williams, Austin Booker, Darrell Taylor

DT (5): Gervon Dexter, Kenneth Grant, Andrew Billings, Zacch Pickens, FREE AGENT

ILB (1): Tremaine Edmunds

OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, FREE AGENT

S (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Nick Emmanwori, Elijah Hicks, FREE AGENT

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

Here's my evidence that this was legitimately run through PFF's simulator:

(PFF incorrectly lists the Bears as holding the Rams' 5th rounder -- I'm not sure why, so I always send it back to LA)

As is always the case, this isn't a perfect roster. The WR depth chart isn't terribly deep. The RB room is halfway empty! There is no succession plan at LB. The CB group lacks a compelling option if Tyrique Stevenson can't bounce back from his Hail Mary gaffe in Washington, something he is yet to do. And there's no viable reserve 3T at the moment unless something wild happens with Pickens.

Despite all of that, this is a team that is dramatically better in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and Caleb Williams gets a new explosive toy in Fannin.

This is my favorite mock offseason thus far by a mile.

The Nail Is In the Matt Eberflus Coffin, But Outside of the Eberflus Family, Who Cares?

As my brother and I sat in Soldier Field last Sunday with the Bears' season on life support, something amazing happened: facing a 3rd and 19, budding star rookie QB Caleb Williams ad-libbed a 16-yard dart to WR Rome Odunze to set up a very manageable 4th and 3, which Williams then converted with another gorgeous throw to Odunze. One easy out to Keenan Allen later and Williams had done the unthinkable: he led a comeback against the unsurmountable force that is the Green Bay Packers, formerly the club's biggest rival. I turned to my brother, wrapped my arm around him, and told him that there was a world where this is the beginning of a wild turn in the Matt Eberflus story. Alas, it was not to be...

...but not all is lost, Bears fans! In fact, the Bears are finally in an idyllic spot with their quarterback and, just as importantly, their failure of a head coach has finally failed enough that there's no plausible way to keep him. While it was fairly obvious to numerous Bears fans that Flus should've been fired last January, there's no longer a decision to be made this January: Flus will be gone, uncoupling Williams from his floundering coach. In fact, if the Bears were a more competent organization, Flus wouldn't make it home from Detroit on Thursday afternoon. But the Halas/McCaskey family has never fired a coach during a season; it's hard to have hope that they'll start now.

The reason for keeping Flus appears to be continuity, though I struggle to see the value in continuing to fail. The reasons to fire Flus are...well, they're too voluminous to list. A few that jump out:

1. Flus hired Shane Waldron as OC. I liked the Waldron hiring seeing what I could see from the outside, but his tenure was an unmitigated disaster that got him fired two weeks. Only two NFL OCs have been fired this year: Waldron and Luke Getsy, the other OC hired by Eberflus. Good grief. Through two weeks of OC Thomas Brown, the offense in general and Williams specifically look dramatically better.
2. Flus is wildly conservative despite routinely coaching as an underdog. This was clearest last week when Flus decided to sit on the ball with 30+ seconds remaining in order to try a 46-yard field goal...in Chicago...in November...with a kicker who always kicks low line drives. It was an unforgiveable error that speaks to Flus' illogical conservatism and general approach to make decisions governed by fear of what could go wrong instead of confidence about what could go right. Add it all up and he's 5-18 in one-score games. No other current NFL head coach is under .400, but Flus is coming in strong at .217.
3. The team quit after the Washington Hail Mary. The Arizona game that followed was embarrassing. More on that below.
4. The most damning issue, even worse than those listed above: the Matt Eberflus defense stinks. There are two key injuries with budding star (and personal favorite) S Jaquan Brisker and NT Andrew Billings both presumably out for the season, but the unit is still about as healthy as an NFL defense can be at midseason. This is Flus's third season at the helm with incredible resources poured into that side of the ball. The results?
1. After forcing a pair of punts from the Cardinals to start that game, the Bears allowed three touchdown drives in the last 16 minutes of the first half to let that game get out of hand.
2. Needing to right the ship the following week back at home against the woeful Patriots, the defense allowed five scoring drives -- admittedly only one that reached the endzone -- in a game where the offense no-showed. That marked just the second time in 33 games since Thanksgiving 2022 that the New England offense generated five scores.
3. On life support the following week against the dreaded Packers, Thomas Brown's offense enjoyed a successful day of ball control, and the Flus defense responded by shutting down Green Bay once...and allowing the Packers to reach at least the Chicago 5 on their five other possessions.
4. That brings us to today, where Minnesota doubled Green Bay's output with 12 possessions. Minnesota only reached the 5 or farther four times. That's huge improvement, right? Technically, sure, but that overlooks the following possessions:
1. A field goal drive that reached the 8.
2. A field goal drive that reached the 7.
3. A field goal drive that reached the 9.
4. Two other possessions that crossed midfield.

The pass rush is non-existent, yet Flus refuses to send numbers in key spots. The results are as expected.

It seems that the defensive shortcomings started to weigh on Williams, especially in dreadful showings against Arizona and New England. It's part of what makes his explosive outings against Green Bay and Minnesota since so much more impressive.

Also speaking to the incredible nature of Williams' explosion? The complete lack of a rushing attack to take some weight off of his shoulders.

I'm surrounded by Lions fans who get to enjoy the NFL's best offensive line with a pair of plus backs. They'd probably lose their lunch if their running backs turned in these four consecutive games as has been the case for D'Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson (keep in mind that this includes a 39-yard touchdown from Swift against Green Bay):

1. 19 carries for 64 yards @ Arizona
2. 17 carries for 55 yards v. New England
3. 24 carries for 104 yards v. Green Bay
4. 15 carries for 32 yards v. Minnesota

The total tally is alarming: 75 rushes for just 255 yards. That's 3.4 yards per carry. Yuck. Williams himself is masking the dereliction of duty from the rushing attack by contributing big rushing totals himself:

1. 4 carries for 5 yards @ Arizona
2. 2 carries for 15 yards v. New England
3. 9 carries for 70 yards v. Green Bay
4. 6 carries for 33 yards v. Minnesota

Williams has added 123 yards on 21 carries, nearly half as many yards as Swift+Johnson despite the backs having 3.5x attempts. Yuck yuck yuck.

Back before the season started, I worried most about the Bears improving just a little -- to something like 8-9 or even 9-8 -- without being good. It would ensure that the club stayed in the Flus-infused purgatory for at least another year, wasting another year on the Williams rookie contract. That ship has sailed. Flus is toast. Williams is now thriving without his albatross of a coach holding him down.

While I'd still love to see management put on their big-boy pants and jettison Flus before the season is over, I'm confident that Williams can survive six more games with his overmatched head coach. The continued failure of the head man should even give GM Ryan Poles -- or, possibly, his replacement -- yet another top-10 draft pick with which to add to the roster. While there are significant needs to address before the 2025 season begins, especially in the interior of the offensive line and along the defensive front, the Bears have sufficient assets to put toward the roster to make this an eminently enticing opportunity for the 2025 head coach.

That 2025 head coach will not be Matt Eberflus. And outside of the emergence of Caleb Williams as a budding star, that's the best thing that could come out of the 2024 season at this point. For a team that struggles to get wins on the field, Bears fans will have to settle for this "win" instead. For now, anyway.