For a number of years, I would do my own full NFL mock draft. We're talking 250+ picks. At some point in college, I realized that this was completely insane and an epic waste of time. Instead, I would read about prospects and imagine some of them becoming Bears. That was enough for me.
On the eve of the 2009 draft, I remember laying in bed one night, completely falling in love with an undersized receiver who ran impeccable routes, had tremendous quickness, excellent body control, and very strong hands. It's a shame that he wasn't a bit bigger: if Johnny Knox weighed even 20 lbs. more, perhaps his career wouldn't have ended two years ago. Regardless, I appreciate that such a stroke of luck - falling in love with a player before your team magically drafts him 140th overall - is unlikely to ever happen again, so what's the use in pressing destiny?
Instead, I like to take a look at the roster in advance of the draft, assessing which positions should be targeted for bodies. There's no sense in saying "the Bears must draft a defensive tackle in the first round!" The only player the Bears must draft in the first round if given the opportunity is Jadeveon Clowney. That's it. Otherwise, they must draft a good football player, wherever he plays. I'd like for them to do the same thing in each subsequent round.
With that in mind, here's a look at the players currently under contract with a look toward which positions could use some help late this week. The draft need will be on a scale of 0 to 10, with 0 representing the need to add another quarterback behind Joe Montana and Steve Young and 10 showing the need to add a left tackle to replace Aaron Gibson.
Quarterback
Players on Roster: Jay Cutler, Jordan Palmer, Jerrod Johnson
Roster Analysis: The Bears would be wise to add another quarterback at some point this offseason, if only to add some competition for Palmer, but they hardly need to add a big-time player here.
Draft Need: 2
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: Teddy Bridgewater (Louisville), Johnny Manziel (Texas A&M), Blake Bortles (Central Florida).
Draft Analysis: If one of these three falls to the Bears at #14, they should at least entertain the idea of drafting such a high caliber signal caller. I'm among the minority that will be surprised to see even one of this trio last to #14 with at least Houston, St. Louis, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Oakland, and Minnesota all desperately in need of a quarterback. How many of those GMs really want to get fired in the next two years if they run out Case Keenum or Brian Hoyer every game? Assuming they'd like to stay employed, someone will bite the bullet and draft a QB. After that trio, there's not much of a point in using a later-round pick on a quarterback. For every Tom Brady, there are 1,000 Nathan Enderles. There is much greater value available late in the draft at other positions.
Running Back
Players on Roster: Matt Forte, Michael Ford, Shaun Draughn, Tony Fiammetta (FB), Willie Carter (FB)
Roster Analysis: If there's one thing we've learned over the past few years, it is that NFL running backs come in all shapes and sizes and productive backs can be found as undrafted free agents nearly as well as top picks. Forte and Fiammetta will both make the roster while Draughn and Carter will not; Ford should return, but the question will be whether he comes back as the second or third back. I think the Bears will add someone, although that someone could very well be an undrafted free agent just like Ford.
Draft Need: 5
Potential Draft Targets: Rounds 3-4: Bishop Sankey (Washington), Jeremy Hill (LSU), Tre Mason (Auburn). Rounds 5-6: Charles Sims (West Virginia), Marion Grice (Arizona State)
Draft Analysis: These are all value picks as each players should be drafted a round or two higher. Hill, Sims, and Grice are in the same mold as Matt Forte: big, powerful runners who could be every-down backs. Sankey and Mason are more traditional change of pace backs who could contribute more right away. The only wrong place to draft a running back is in the first round.
Tight End
Players on Roster: Martellus Bennett, Dante Rosario, Zach Miller, Fendi Onobun, Matthew Mulligan
Roster Analysis: The Black Unicorn was a star last year. Rosario was useful enough, but he's hardly a special second tight end. The other three are all unlikely to make the final roster, though Onobun will undoubtedly make noise this offseason as he tends to do.
Draft Need: 8
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: Eric Ebron (North Carolina). Round 2: Jace Amaro (Texas Tech), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Washington). Rounds 3 and later: Troy Niklas (Notre Dame), Xavier Grimble (USC), Joe Don Duncan (Dixie State).
Draft Analysis: I will be surprised if the Bears don't draft a tight end in the draft, but I will be surprised if they grab one in the first round that isn't Ebron. He is the one player in this group who has the athleticism and the production to justify such a pick. The Bears goal-line offense would be otherworldly with Marshall, Jeffery, Bennett, and Ebron. Any of the other names would be useful enough later on.
Wide Receiver
Players on Roster: Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Marquess Wilson, Josh Morgan, Domenik Hixon, Eric Weems, Josh Bellamy, Chris Williams
Roster Analysis: Emery has done a nice job creating competition for Wilson at the #3 spot with Morgan and Hixon both featuring extensive NFL experience. Weems recently took a pay cut, something that should ensure that he returns as a core special teamer. Either one of Morgan or Hixon will get cut or the team will carry six receivers.
Draft Need: 0
Potential Draft Targets: Round 4 or later: Allen Robinson (Penn State), Martavis Bryant (Clemson), Jordan Matthews (Vanderbilt), Dri Archer (Kent State)
Draft Analysis: If one of that trio slips into the fourth round or later, the Bears should consider pouncing. Otherwise, stay away from the true receivers. Now, time for an exception: Archer. He's a scat-back in the mold of Darren Sproles, a blazingly fast undersized utility back. If Archer remains on the board in the fourth round or later, the Bears should go for it.
Offensive Tackle
Players on Roster: Jermon Bushrod, Jordan Mills, Eben Britton, James Brown, Joe Long, Rogers Gaines
Roster Analysis: Bushrod was excellent in 2013 and while Mills struggled at times, he was nonetheless a solidifying addition. There's reason to hope for some improvement there. Britton was a nice depth addition and played regularly as a sixth lineman; Brown has been around for a few years now.
Draft Need: 4
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: Jake Matthews (Texas A&M), Taylor Lewan (Michigan). Rounds 3 or later: Morgan Moses (Virginia), Cyrus Kouandjio (Alabama), Seantrel Henderson (Miami).
Draft Analysis: Matthews would be tempting at #14; I have to mention Lewan because everybody else loves him, even though I'm not all that impressed. Moses is a massive prospect who generates conflicting reviews. Kouandjio and Henderson receive mention because they are former top prospects who showed flashes in college while also exhibiting significant red flags. The team that drafts Henderson will either obtain a massive value or release him within 15 months.
Interior Offensive Line
Players on Roster: Kyle Long (G), Matt Slauson (G), Roberto Garza (C), Brian de la Puente (C), Taylor Boggs (C)
Roster Analysis: The starting lineup inside looks very strong with Long an immediate hit, Slauson a revelation after coming over from the Jets, and Garza remaining steady as his career winds down. de la Puente was a huge get late in free agency given his years of starting experience with current Bears Offensive Coordinator Aaron Kromer.
Draft Need: 1
Potential Draft Targets: Rounds 4 or later: Brandon Thomas (Clemson), Trai Turner (LSU).
Draft Analysis: Drafting a center is completely unnecessary given the presence of Garza and de la Puente. de la Puente is probably the top interior reserve right now, and given the presence of a long snapper on the roster as well, bringing in another lineman who needs to make the roster seems foolish. If Thomas plummets after tearing his ACL this spring or Turner drops after entering the draft too soon, the Bears could scoop up one of the pair in the later rounds, effectively giving the prospect a redshirt year in 2014 before expecting some contribution in 2015. That likely requires an assumption that Long will bump outside in 2015. Grabbing an interior lineman just isn't a good use of scarce resources.
Defensive End
Players on Roster: Jared Allen, Lamarr Houston, Willie Young, Cornelius Washington, David Bass, Austen Lane, Tracy Robertson, Trevor Scott
Roster Analysis: How quickly things change. Allen, Houston, and Young should all receive significant snaps. Washington and Bass both showed some flashes last year in limited opportunities while the final trio will serve as camp bodies.
Draft Need: 2
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: Jadeveon Clowney (South Carolina - I wish). Round 2: Kony Ealy (Missouri), Stephon Tuitt (Notre Dame). Round 3: Scott Crichton (Oregon State), Dominique Easley (Florida), Kareem Martin (North Carolina).
Draft Analysis: If Clowney slips to even #4, I'd be extremely tempted to offer our 2014 and 2015 #1 picks to get him. It won't happen, but it's a nice dream. Ealy, Crichton, Easley, and Martin are all quicker pass rushers who could develop into every-down players. Tuitt is the anomaly, a very large DE similar to Houston. Emery has shown a willingness to bring in big athletes on the defense as opposed to guys who fit one particular spot. Drafting an oversized defensive end in the Houston mold would give the Bears tons of flexibility in pass rushing situations, enabling the team to move Houston and Tuitt inside on obvious throwing downs with Allen, Young, and even new linebacker Shea McClellin rushing from the outside. The flexibility could be attractive. I'd be surprised if a later-round selection was used on a DE as it would represent punting on Washington just one year after using a sixth-round choice on him.
Defensive Tackle
Players on Roster: Stephen Paea, Jeremiah Ratliff, Nate Collins, Israel Idonije
Roster Analysis: I still like Paea quite a bit, in spite of his injury concerns, and he is primed to have a nice season in his contract year, particularly with improved play from the ends next to him. Ratliff was a pleasant addition last year, although he is clearly on his last legs. Collins and Idonije are merely depth.
Draft Need: 9
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: Aaron Donald (Pittsburgh). Round 2: Ra'Shede Hageman (Minnesota), Louis Nix (Notre Dame), Timmy Jernigan (Florida State), Ego Ferguson (LSU), Anthony Johnson (LSU). Round 4 or later: DaQuan Jones (Penn State), George Uko (USC)
Draft Analysis: The Bears might survive 2014 without adding a starting-caliber DT to the roster in the draft, but I'd be absolutely floored if they attempted to do so especially given major health concerns for all of the top three on the depth chart. Donald has skyrocketed up draft boards and may be gone before the Bears pick. If that's the case, expect the Bears to either trade down in Round 1 or draft elsewhere. Round 2 appears to be the place to look for a DT with as many as six prospects possibly available in the round. The club really should add a DT, but thanks to an active offseason, only one DT is needed.
Outside Linebacker
Players on Roster: Lance Briggs, Shea McClellin, Khaseem Greene, Jordan Senn, Jerry Franklin, Lawrence Wilson
Roster Analysis: Briggs is at the end of an illustrious career and he's really the only thing holding this group together. Having said that, McClellin is a lock to make the team given his contract, Greene was last year's fourth-round-pick, and Senn was brought in to be a special teams ace. The Bears need to get better at OLB, yet four jobs appear relatively safe.
Draft Need: 2
Potential Draft Targets: Round 2: C.J. Mosley (Alabama)
Draft Analysis: It makes little sense to use a late-round pick on an OLB with Greene and Senn both on the roster. As such, only a slipping Mosley is truly attractive as he could replace Briggs in the long-term while being a situational player as a rookie. Insert generic warning about banged-up Alabama prospects here.
Middle Linebacker
Players on Roster: D.J. Williams, Jon Bostic
Roster Analysis: Williams was a solid starter before tearing his pectoral last year whereas Bostic appeared overmatched at times despite superior athleticism. The hope here is that Bostic can wrestle the job away from Williams at some point this year, perhaps even in camp.
Draft Need: 0
Potential Draft Targets: N/A
Draft Analysis: There just isn't a true MLB worth taking.
Cornerback
Players on Roster: Charles Tillman, Tim Jennings, Kelvin Hayden, Isaiah Frey, Sherrick McManis, Derrick Martin, C.J. Wilson, Sean Cattouse, Derricus Purdy, Demontre Hurst
Roster Analysis: Tillman is back for a victory lap (makes me happy!), Jennings is a solid #2, Hayden and Frey provide good depth, and the rest of the guys are likely to be forced out.
Draft Need: 10
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: Justin Gilbert (Oklahoma State), Darqueze Dennard (Michigan State), Kyle Fuller (Virginia Tech), Bradley Roby (Ohio State), Jason Verrett (TCU). Rounds 2-3: Keith McGill (Utah), Stanley Jean-Baptiste (Nebraska), Dontae Johnson (N.C. State), Philip Gaines (Rice), Marcus Roberson (Florida), Jaylen Watkins (Florida).
Draft Analysis: McGill and Jean-Baptiste both have the kind of size the Bears have traditionally preferred from their corners (both 6'3", over 210 lbs.), but Gilbert, Dennard, Fuller, and Roby all have plenty of size too. Verrett is the one truly small prospect worth of consideration given his excellent skill set, although the size would be enough to keep me away. Regardless, there is a heaping pile of cornerback depth in this draft, depth that should be the strongest factor pushing Emery to consider trading down. The Bears should be able to grab a 2015 starter in one of the first three rounds and perhaps even later.
Safety
Players on Roster: Chris Conte, Ryan Mundy, M.D. Jennings, Craig Steltz, Danny McCray
Roster Analysis: I still love Conte. Then again, I thought that Brandon Hardin was a bigger, stronger, faster version of Conte; shows what I know. Anyway, the Bears need to count on a rejuvenated Conte playing as a starter and they're likely planning on Mundy doing the same even though he seems like a tweener. There is experienced depth here, although it's hardly comforting.
Draft Need: 7
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: HaHa Clinton-Dix (Alabama), Calvin Pryor (Louisville). Round 3 or later: Deone Bucannon (Washington State), Dion Bailey (USC), Ahmad Dixon (Baylor), Ed Reynolds (Stanford), Tre Boston (UNC), Antone Exum (Virginia Tech).
Draft Analysis: There's plenty of depth here as well, although Clinton-Dix and Pryor both have their flaws. Clinton-Dix doesn't have ideal speed for a centerfielder while Pryor is a bit undersized. Still, it certainly seems like the Bears can and should find a mid-round prospect here.
Specialists
Players on Roster: Robbie Gould (K), Tress Way (P), Drew Butler (P), Brandon Hartson (LS), Chad Rempel (LS)
Roster Analysis: Gould is a stud. The team is likely going to open up the punting job for a competition while the long snappers are keeping Patrick Mannelly's seat warm should he desire to return.
Draft Need: 0
Potential Draft Targets: N/A
Draft Analysis: There's no sense in drafting a specialist.
Summary
Based on the above, I have ranked the team needs in the following order:
Cornerback (10)
Defensive Tackle (9)
Tight End (8)
Safety (7)
Running Back (5)
Offensive Tackle (4)
Defensive End (2)
Outside Linebacker (2)
Quarterback (2)
Interior Offensive Line (1)
Wide Receiver (0)
Middle Linebacker (0)
Specialists (0)
None of this surprises me as it jives largely with what I've thought for months: the team needs a starting-caliber DT and more help in the secondary. With that in mind, here's what I'd like to see at each pick assuming the club holds on to all of their selections:
#14: CB Kyle Fuller (Virginia Tech)
#51: DT Timmy Jernigan (Florida State)
#82: CB Dontae Johnson (N.C. State)
#117: TE Xavier Grimble (USC)
#156: OT Seantrel Henderson (Miami)
#183: S Antone Exum (Virginia Tech)
#191: RB Marion Grice (Arizona State)
Truth be told, I'd prefer that the Bears spend more value on linemen, but this is just how it broke down for me. The secondary gets a major infusion that is much needed. Jernigan should be a rotation piece from Day One. Grimble, Henderson, and Grice are challenge pieces for Aaron Kromer and Marc Trestman to develop. Exum would probably need something like a redshirt season, but that's fine given some useful depth at safety. Fuller and Jernigan would be a nice haul up top and that's most important.
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