The 2014 Cubs have already proved to be a bit of an enigma. The club features a +4 run differential - better than the Padres, Dodgers, Pirates, Reds, Brewers, Phillies, Mets, Rangers, Indians, White Sox, Royals, Twins, Rays, Red Sox, Orioles, and Yankees - yet they are just 17-28, the third worst mark in baseball. If standings were completed by run differential instead of win-loss record, the Cubs would be second place in the NL Central, AL Central, and AL East.
This should be a cause for optimism. Russell Carleton over at Baseball Prospectus expertly explained that run differential at this point in the season is a better predictor of future record than current record itself (subscription required). There are a trio of ways to achieve an average run differential: excellent prevention/poor scoring, excellent scoring/poor prevention, or roughly average of both.
The Cubs have accomplished their run differential with excellent run prevention. The team's FIP ranks 4th in all of baseball at 3.36 with their starting pitching the best in all of baseball at 3.18; the bullpen's FIP of 3.73 is 16th. Their team defense rating of 12.4 runs above average (at Fangraphs) comes in at 9th in baseball. Superb starting pitching combined with average relief work and above-average defense yields strong run prevention results as the team has allowed the 8th fewest runs in baseball.
The offense is a different story as the team's wRC+ of 81 (normalized with 100 as average) ranks 29th in baseball, ahead of only the feckless Padres. They rank 25th in runs scored, 27th in on-base percentage (.301), and 21st in isolated power (.133). The club embarrassingly leads the majors in strikeout rate at 23.5% of all plate appearances. Through just 45 games, they have scored 35.6 fewer runs than an average offense. There's work to be done.
In a moment of sadness, I looked forward again to the 2015 club. For years, this has been the year in which the team is first expected to truly compete and make noise. With that in mind, here is a position-by-position look at next year's club. See if you can contain your excitement.
*Estimated salaries are italicized; guaranteed salaries are in standard print
Catcher
Incumbent Starter: Welington Castillo
Projected 2015 Starter: Welington Castillo
Projected 2015 Expense: $2.9M (Arbitration 1)
Analysis: Castillo is a solid, unspectacular contributor who brings value with his defense and bat. His on-base percentage has lagged behind due to only a decent walk rate and subpar batting averages. But there's enough power in his bat to be an average bat at the position, and his half splits suggest that he has the ability for even more: for his career, he's a .248/.304/.363 hitter in the first half compared to .285/.369/.468 in the second half. May is traditionally his worst month and this year is no exception. Regardless, Castillo remains a valuable asset for the near future provided that he can hit in the 8th or 7th spot of the lineup.
Reserve Catcher
Incumbent: John Baker
Projected 2015 Reserve: Anonymous replacement-level free agent (possibly Baker again)
Projected 2015 Expense: $1M or less
Analysis: When I projected the 40-man roster for 2015, I got to 36 players, yet Castillo was the only catcher. There is no organizational depth here although both Rafael Lopez and minor league Rule 5 pick Charles Cutler are playing well at AA. Still, I don't expect catcher to be addressed, especially not with Castillo still in his prime.
First Baseman
Incumbent Starter: Anthony Rizzo
Projected 2015 Starter: Anthony Rizzo
Projected 2015 Expense: $5M
Analysis: Rizzo is blossoming into the star that the front office hoped he would become. While his power seems to come and go at this point in his career, he is nonetheless hitting for adequate power (.188 ISO) and his 17.5% BB% is 5th in MLB. He looks like a fixture in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th spots of the lineup with a remote chance to be an unconventional #2 hitter a la Joey Votto. Regardless, Rizzo looks like a pre-prime star.
Second Baseman
Incumbent Starter: Luis Valbuena
Projected 2015 Starter: Javier Baez
Projected 2015 Expense: $0.510M
Analysis: Valbuena is a tricky player, one with plenty of glove for 2B and 3B and with enough bat to justify an every day job. He's also hardly a star and he has the organization's best prospects nipping at his heels. During the offseason, I thought Valbuena stood a good chance of finding himself with the Yankees or some other contender during 2014 and I think that possibility remains true. He has never shown the ability to regularly produce strong batting average, so it's hard to buy into his current .342 BABIP given his .266 career BABIP. He's plenty valuable; that value just makes more sense for another team.
As for the Cubs, they genuinely have three solid options for 2B in 2015: Valbuena, Baez, or Arismendy Alcantara. I think Alcantara will get a crack at an every day job, just not at 2B (see more below). That leaves Baez to man second, and he should have plenty of defensive chops for the spot, even coming off a bit overqualified given his strong arm. Nonetheless, the reemerging top prospect is back to torturing minor league pitchers, and he should be in line for a regular job by either mid-April or early-June 2015, depending on whether the Cubs just want the seventh year of team control or if they also want to avoid the Super Two cutoff. Whenever he arrives, Baez will do so as a 3rd, 4th, or 5th hole masher.
Third Baseman
Incumbent Starter: Mike Olt
Projected 2015 Starter: Kris Bryant
Projected 2015 Expense: $0.510M
Analysis: Olt should still get a shot to play each day, but I think that opportunity will come in an outfield corner where his big arm can play. He's currently a better defender than Bryant, though Bryant has the best infield arm in the system that I've seen. Bryant is the future and he's going to get his chance to man 3B at the top level. Bryant has yet to be truly challenged in the minors despite sizable strikeout rates at every level; when I have seen him, he makes such hard contact when he puts the ball in play that it makes a high-.300s BABIP believable. The man is going to be a 3rd, 4th, or 5th hitting beast in the very near future.
Shortstop
Incumbent Starter: Starlin Castro
Projected 2015 Starter: Starlin Castro
Projected 2015 Expense: $6M
Analysis: Although currently mired in an 0-for-14 slump, Castro is still proving that 2013 was just a bad dream. He makes his living lining balls to right and right-center while whipping his bat around to put offspeed pitches down the left-field line. Castro isn't likely destined for stardom as he still rarely walks and his power looks good, not great, but he's an extremely valuable asset as a good-fielding shortstop who can still push for .300 batting averages. Expect to see him batting 2nd or 6th by this time next year, his ideal lineup spots.
Reserve Infielders
Incumbents: Darwin Barney, Emilio Bonifacio (sort of)
Projected 2015 Reserves: Logan Watkins, Josh Vitters
Projected 2015 Expense: $1.02M
Analysis: These reserve spots will more likely be filled by outsiders, but given that Watkins appears ready for a utility reserve spot, he makes sense. Vitters is trickier; he'd make the team only if his bat returns to form as a righty bench bat. The rest of the roster is full of infielders who can cover 2B (Baez, Alcantara), SS (Castro, Baez), and 3B (Bryant, Baez, Olt), so a pure bat could very well make the roster.
Leftfielder
Incumbent Starter: Junior Lake
Projected 2015 Starter: Mike Olt
Projected 2015 Expense: $0.51M
Analysis: Although I think Olt will get bumped from his 3B job, I think he's still going to get a chance to play and LF should be his best bet. After a truly dreadful April, Olt has rebounded with a strong May thus far (.200/.300/.520) on the strength of his powerful bat; he has also proved surprisingly adept at cashing in runs via the sacrifice fly, a welcome development given his very high strikeout rate. It remains to be seen if he will be a long-term piece, but for now it's worth getting his bat in the lineup to find out.
Centerfielder
Incumbent Starter: Emilio Bonifacio
Projected 2015 Starter: Arismendy Alcantara
Projected 2015 Expense: $0.51M
Analysis: And here he is. Alcantara came up as a shortstop, forced to 2B with Javier Baez behind him and Starlin Castro in front. Nonetheless, his skill set is well-suited for centerfield given his plus-plus speed and an adequate arm (some scouts like his arm, but I haven't been terribly impressed with it). Alcantara continues to hit for big power with stolen bases and a strong batting average, although the 22-year-old switch-hitter has struggled to draw walks at AAA. His game certainly isn't as pretty as some of the other names on this list, but he has a chance to bat 1st, 2nd, or 7th in a great lineup if his maturation continues.
Rightfielder
Incumbent Starter: Nate Schierholtz
Projected 2015 Starter: Junior Lake
Projected 2015 Expense: $0.51M
Analysis: The Cubs are wasting developmental time with Lake in LF; he is ideally suited for CF given a big arm and good speed, but he would also play better in RF where nobody is blocking him. Like Olt, Lake has rebounded from a poor April but his improvement has been far more pronounced: after stumbling through a .221/.254/.382 opening month, Lake has exploded for a .344/.354/.574 May. He brings value on the basepaths already and he figures to do so in the field given his athletic skills; if some of his offensive growth proves sustainable, we're looking at a really nice piece. Lake should hit 6th or 7th next year with an outside shot at hitting 5th if the power continues to show up in games. It's unlikely to ever look like a masterpiece with Lake, but his high-variance, high-energy approach does have considerable skills backing it up.
Reserve Outfielders
Incumbents: Justin Ruggiano, Ryan Sweeney, Ryan Kalish
Projected 2015 Reserves: Ruggiano, Sweeney
Projected 2015 Expense: $3.0M (Ruggiano - Arbitration 2), $1.5M (Sweeney)
Analysis: Remarkably, Ruggiano and Sweeney project as the fourth and fifth most expensive position players on the roster. Ruggiano profiles as a nice bench bat who can be a short-side platoon starter while Sweeney fulfills the defensive replacement role. It also wouldn't be stunning to see the club designate Ruggiano for assignment this offseason, figuring that he doesn't project to start and his role can be filled for 20% of the cost.
A Brief Recap of the Offense
While the 2014 offense has been putrid thus far, the group looks to get massive boosts throughout the lineup by this time next year highlighted by two of baseball's premier offensive prospects joining the fray. Though highly unlikely to be the lineup on Opening Day 2015, the June 1st lineup could very well be:
1. CF Alcantara
2. SS Castro
3. 1B Rizzo
4. 3B Bryant
5. 2B Baez
6. RF Lake
7. LF Olt
8. C Castillo
Now, this group is not without its flaws and it is entirely possible that any number of these names could flame out. But how much more exciting is it to watch a lineup comprised of those players than the Nate Schierholtzes and David DeJesuses of the baseball world? All of those players have impact tools: hit (Castro, Bryant, Baez), power (Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Lake, Olt), speed (Alcantara), and defense (Castillo). We keep hearing about the core of the next great Cubs team. That's it, even with top prospects like Jorge Soler and Albert Almora not yet a part of the action. The above roster is extremely cheap with the catchers ($3.9M), infielders ($14.04M), and outfielders ($6.03M) costing a grand total of $23.97M. Incredible.
Starting Pitcher #1
Incumbent Starter: Jeff Samardzija
Projected 2015 Starter: Jeff Samardzija
Projected 2015 Expense: $10M (Arbitration 3)
Analysis: Well, Shark turned into an ace. The club's decision with Samardzija will be among the biggest choices the team has to make on any player during this massive, drawn-out rebuilding process. Given that lineup above, the Cubs offense should be able to be a league-average group as early as the second half of 2015 with the sky as the limit thereafter. If that's true, at least some pitching needs to be in Chicago by 2015. Samardzija is controllable through 2015, but the Cubs rightly recognize that a decision should be made on the ace in the next two months. If he's going to be the ace of the team, the Homer Bailey extension (6 years, $105M guaranteed) is likely a floor. I think a 6 year, $115M offer would likely get Samardzija's signature and such a deal could be structured as follows:
Signing Bonus: $12M
Y1 (replacing Arbitration 3): $15M
Y2: $19M
Y3: $18M
Y4: $17M
Y5: $16M
Y6: $15M
Y7: $22M club option with $3M buyout
That structure may seem bizarre, but the deal is structured as such to enable the Cubs to meet their financing obligations in the later portion of his contract when the Castro and Rizzo extensions get pricier and the current wave of prospects are moving into the arbitration system. This year's payroll can certainly absorb the huge signing bonus given the earmarked funds for Masahiro Tanaka, and Samardzija would have an enormous incentive to sign the contract given such a substantial upfront bonus; he'd be in line to make an extra $17M over 2014-15 by signing this extension.
Starting Pitcher #2
Incumbent Starter: Jason Hammel
Projected 2015 Starter: From most likely to least likely: James Shields, Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, or Ervin Santana
Projected 2015 Expense: $23M
Analysis: Hammel has been excellent thus far with his 3.22 FIP placing him 37th in baseball directly behind Rick Porcello, Justin Verlander, and David Price. However, his .222 BABIP is bound to come up such that, even if he maintains his excellent 1.99 BB/9, he's settling in as a mid-rotation arm.
The Cubs are well-positioned to fill their offensive needs internally and, as noted above, their rotation has been among baseball's best. Unfortunately, their top-tier pitching prospects are a few years away (Paul Blackburn, Jen-Ho Tseng, possibly the #4 pick in next month's draft), struggling with the injury bug (C.J. Edwards (I think he's a reliever), Pierce Johnson, Ivan Pineyro), or lack a top-of-the-rotation ceiling (Kyle Hendricks). That's where money comes in. The Cubs certainly have some, although it's unclear just how much. Regardless, if they had $40M to spend this year on Tanaka ($20M posting fee + $20M salary), I'm confident that they can afford one of the top tier guys in next year's class.
Shields should be the easiest to sign given that, at 33 in December, he can likely be signed to something like a 4 year, $80M deal. He's risky given his age, but older players are nearly the new market inefficiency.
Scherzer appears likely to jump for a huge payday given his reportedly turning down a 6 year, $144M offer from Detroit, and if the Cubs are willing to shell out the cash, he could probably be had for something like 7 years, $175M. Scherzer is a flyball pitcher, but his huge strikeout rate, good command, and strong track record make him extremely appealing.
Lester is peaking in his age-30 season, but this front office was with him for much of his career, so there could be something there. Given that he has earned "just" $44.5M so far in his career and he will turn 31 this winter, Lester likely knows that this is his only shot at a huge deal. I think he'll ultimately get something like 6 years, $140M. I'd be on board with the Cubs giving him that cash, but I'll surprised if he actually leaves Boston.
Masterson finds himself in the unenviable position of tanking in his contract year as command woes and some bad lucky have led to poor results. He also lacks the track record of the three listed above. I think he'll either look for a one year "prove it" deal or look for something in the 6 year, $90M range. Masterson is in a tough spot as he will turn 30 before next season begins and his platform year has been a disaster thus far. He is obviously much less attractive than the three names listed above him.
Finally, Santana has pitched splendidly this year although his career averages suggest that he is pitching a bit over his head right now. He's not a #2 starter for a contender unless such time has three #3s right behind him in an untraditional rotation format.
My solid preference is for Scherzer with Lester just a bit behind him. After that, it's basically Shields or bust as it is tough to justify big bucks on Masterson or Santana at this point.
Starting Pitcher #3
Incumbent Starter: Travis Wood
Projected 2015 Starter: Travis Wood
Projected 2015 Expense: $5.75M (Arbitration 2)
Analysis: Wood has won me over. I thought his 2013 was largely a mirage thanks to underwhelming rate stats, but he has been even better thus far in 2014 with a huge jump in BABIP and drop in his strand rate to blame for less impressive results in spite of a major uptick in strikeout rate. Wood is proving to be a reliable workhorse who challenges us to consider what comprises valuable "stuff" as his movement and ability to command his arsenal makes him far better than his velocity ever could.
Wood may also be looking at an extension. He will be 28 next year with the Cubs controlling his services through 2016; perhaps a 4 year, $40M deal would work for both sides, covering his last two arbitration years and two free agent years while allowing him to hit free agency at age-32 with nearly $50M in his back pocket.
Starting Pitcher #4
Incumbent Starter: Edwin Jackson
Projected 2015 Starter: Jake Arrieta
Projected 2015 Expense: $1.8M (Arbitration 1)
Analysis: Arrieta narrowly missed being a Super Two yet his years of injuries and struggles should keep his arbitration wages down. Still, it's possible that his starting arbitration salary could be notably higher than this. Regardless, he has the arrows in his quiver to be a very good starter and, at 28, the time is now. The early returns have been promising in 2014 despite his being slowed by injury and continuing to struggle with the free pass. The Cubs don't need him to be a star, but if he can be productive in the Edwin Jackson mold of starters with better stuff than results but solid results nonetheless, that's still plenty useful.
Starting Pitcher #5
Incumbent Starter(s): Jake Arrieta
Projected 2015 Starter: Edwin Jackson
Projected 2015 Expense: $11M
Analysis: Currently slated to be the highest paid Cub in 2015, Edwin has pulled a Starlin and put 2013 in his rearview mirror. As of today, his 3.01 FIP ranks 21st in baseball among qualified starting pitchers. He has the look of a true asset, a starter who throws tons of innings with plenty of strikeouts and a manageable amount of walks. Edwin is a good #4; he's a tremendous #5.
Closer
Incumbent Starter: Hector Rondon
Projected 2015 Starter: Hector Rondon
Projected 2015 Expense: $0.51M
Analysis: As I wrote to my brother last week, every great team has a couple of guys with whom they got very lucky. For the Cubs, that player appears to be Rondon. A former top prospect in the Cleveland system, Rondon suffered back-to-back elbow injuries that enabled him to find his way to the Cubs via the Rule 5 draft. He has proved to be a monumental steal. Rondon's 1.86 FIP ranks 14th among qualified relievers and he has achieved that success with a massive fastball complemented by a slider and cutter. His 94.8 mph average fastball ranks 18th among relievers. He has the look of a keeper.
Relief Pitchers
Incumbent Starter(s): Carlos Villanueva, Neil Ramirez, Brian Schlitter, Justin Grimm, Pedro Strop, James Russell, Jose Veras, Zac Rosscup, Wesley Wright
Projected 2015 Starter(s): Neil Ramirez, Justin Grimm, Wesley Wright, Zac Rosscup, Brian Schlitter, Arodys Vizcaino, Pedro Strop
Projected 2015 Expense: $6.25M Total: $1.9M (Strop - Arbitration 2 as Super Two), $1.8M (Wright - Arbitration 3), $0.51M (Ramirez), $0.51M (Grimm), $0.51M (Rosscup), $0.51M (Schlitter), $0.51M (Vizcaino)
Analysis: Armando Rivero could also get in on the action. This group is the incarnated version of a plan. Strop, Vizcaino, Ramirez, Grimm, and Rosscup were all acquired via trade and Rivero came in as an amateur free agent from Cuba. Grimm has struggled with his command but shows big strikeout stuff. Ramirez has been superb. Rosscup was strong before suffering an injury while Strop struggled significantly with his command too.
Veras will not be missed and, unfortunately, the overwork of the past two years appears to have caught up with Russell. Regardless, there are plenty of quality bullpen options here, many of whom are a part of 2014's solid group.
A Brief Recap of the Pitching
After spending just $23.97M on the position players, there's a lot of cash left for the pitching. Given the number of relief options, the club should be able to put together an above-average bullpen for just the $6.76M proposed above. Leaving only the five starters, this proposal would cover 21 spots (I'm not deciding between an eighth reliever and a fifth bench player - I'm just going with 26 guys, so sue me) for just $30.73M. Holy Freezerburn Batman!
Of course, I've taken that space and spent big...kind of. I think rolling with Wood-Arrieta-Edwin as the 3-4-5 is plenty reasonable, especially with Kyle Hendricks ready as the sixth starter/possible long man. $51.55M for a starting rotation is hardly crazy; this does presume Samardzija's third arbitration year instead of his first year in a new extension and the above-listed $23M proposal for Scherzer/Lester/Shields. The rotation of Samardzija-Scherzer-Wood-Arrieta-Jackson would be superb, probably just a notch below the fantastic rotation in Detroit this year. With great young arms in the bullpen and a barrage of pitching a year or two away to push Wood, Arrieta, and Jackson, one big acquisition makes tons of sense, even if it costs a lot of cash.
What Does It All Mean?
The excitement that is already present when watching Cubs games this year is about to increase exponentially. The pitching has already turned in a strong performance in 2014, and while the young relievers figure to struggle some as the season wears on, they should also face enough internal competition to enable the franchise to determine which ones are keepers. With so many arms pushing up internally, the bullpen should be a true strength for years to come.
There is a bizarre misconception that the Cubs desperately need pitching. It's true that they lack a big-time pitching prospect that projects as a top-of-the-rotation arm; I won't argue that they do. I will argue that they already have (1) an ace (Samardzija), (2) a solid mid-rotation arm (Wood), (3) a great back-of-the-rotation arm (Edwin), and (4) a possible mid-rotation guy whose floor is as a back-of-the-rotation arm (Arrieta). They need another top-of-the-rotation arm and with it, they've got a rotation built for the long haul and a short series where Samardzija and Scherzer/Lester/Shields would both throw twice with the other game handled by the hottest guy among the remaining trio. That's excellent pitching.
The depressing 2014 offense is going to look substantially different in 2015 not just because there will be new faces but because the new faces project to hit 1st, 4th, and 5th, three of the most important lineup spots. While some of those guys won't last, the late-May/early-June 2015 lineup will be extremely exciting and will enable the club to field an offense with the upside to complement potentially excellent pitching.
It's hard to believe just how plausible everything I just wrote truly is, but what makes it just as incredible is that, for the 26 players listed above, the total cost is as follows:
Position Players (13): $23.97M
Starting Pitchers (5): $51.55M
Relief Pitchers (8): $6.76M
TOTAL: $82.28M
$82.28M. The last time the Cubs had an Opening Day payroll that low? 2003. I'd certainly go for a repeat of 2003. Team revenue was approximately $156M in 2003; it has been at least $266M since 2011. If the Cubs can't handle an $82.28M payroll (yes, it will escalate a bit each year thereafter, but so should the club's revenue), well, let's just assume that they can.
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