A Post-Blockbuster Look Toward Competing in 2015

Back in June, I wondered in these spaces about what it would take to build a 2015 contender in Wrigleyville. Naturally, since then, a whole boatload has changed. Of the moves I proposed, only two of the five proposed moves are still possible after Jeff Samardzija was traded to Oakland (and not extended), Jason Hammel was traded to Oakland (and not Milwaukee), and Seth Smith was extended by San Diego (thus avoiding free agency after the season). With the Oakland blockbuster in our rearview mirror and team spending down to Sandberg-era levels, here's another proposed plan for the next few months to make the 2015 (and beyond) Cubs into serious players. This is all contingent on General Manager Jed Hoyer having spoken the truth when commenting that the team is ready to spend on veteran talent this winter, returning the payroll at least to the $100M range where it lived for over a decade.

Again, just like last time, I'm thinking big but nonetheless within the realm of reason. Every player is on the table.

 

Smaller Transactions: Cubs trade UTIL Emilio Bonifacio, IF Luis Valbuena, RP Wesley Wright, and RP James Russell to various contending teams

Why the Cubs Do It: Because none of those players are key contributors and all have some value to contenders. They should generate some kind of return. 2B Darwin Barney has already moved to the Los Angeles bench. OF Justin Ruggiano is the one tricky guy to me as he could be kept as a bridge starter/excellent reserve. As always, dealing him is predicated on the expected return. Any return for Bonifacio is a good return given his complete nosedive after early April, Valbuena is about to lose his regular playing time, and non-impact relievers almost always return more via trade than they should. The Cubs should take advantage of that. I'd throw Chris Coghlan in this boat, but it looks like the club believes in his bat, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

Transaction #1: Cubs sign SP Jon Lester to a 6-year, $135M contract covering 2015-2020

Why Lester Does It: The Cubs are on the upswing, he is familiar with the championship-building front office, and there's a whole lot of cash helping him make his decision.

Why the Cubs Do It: Yes, this is a boatload of money, but Lester costs only cash (and probably a 2nd round pick) with remarkable consistency from a lefty who produces at star levels. These kinds of players are rarely available and the ability to acquire one for only money at a time when the Cubs should have plenty of it makes too much sense, even if they pay the loser's tax in the form of the sixth year.

Closing Thought: Finding a top-of-the-rotation starter is rather obviously the biggest need for the team this winter.

Transaction #2: Cubs sign C Russell Martin to a 4-year, $52M contract covering 2015-2018

Why Martin Does It: As a catcher in his 30s, this is probably his last shot at a big deal. Pittsburgh is well-positioned to contend through his useful years, but the Cubs are too while offering more cash.

Why the Cubs Do It: Because (1) Martin is either a very good player or a star, depending on the year, and (2) it addresses what remains the organization's biggest position of weakness. Martin's defense alone should cover the cost of this deal, and he has shown big power and big on-base ability in the past, though rarely at the same time. They don't need him to be a star.

Closing Thought: Hurting a division rival is helpful too. Especially when it frees you up to make additional big moves.

Transaction #3: Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro, CF Albert Almora, SP Travis Wood, and SP Tyler Skulina to New York Mets for SP Zack Wheeler, SP Noah Syndergaard, SP Rafael Montero, SP Steven Matz, and SP Robert Whalen

Why the Mets Do It: After the trade, their rotation features some combination of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Bartolo Colon, Wood, Jon Niese, and Dillon Gee. Plus, they've got the financial flexibility to add a premier starter such as Max Scherzer. They've needed a shortstop since Jose Reyes left and a center fielder for just as long. With one deal, they address all of their needs while moving the fly ball-leaning Wood into a better home park.

Why the Cubs Do It: The Almora-for-Montero portion is largely a positional flip of players with comparable value. Skulina and Whalen are both A-ball pitchers albeit with different skill sets as Skulina has the big body to support a power arsenal while Whalen uses a power sinker to throw ground balls. The rest of the deal breaks down to Castro and Wood for Wheeler, Syndergaard, and Matz. I think Wheeler and Syndergaard is too much for Castro while acknowledging that a handful of folks - including some of whom I trust - think that Castro is more valuable than the pitching pair. Regardless, grabbing two arms for the 2015 (and beyond) rotation that both have top-of-the-rotation ability is just too much for me to pass up. Even for folks on the fence, converting the middling Wood into power-lefty Matz should tip the scales.

Closing Thought: The Cubs likely make this move only if they believe that SS Addison Russell is (1) a better defender than Castro, and (2) likely to be ready for a Major League job by early-to-mid-2015. I'm in that camp.

 

Transaction #4: Cubs trade C Welington Castillo and OF Justin Ruggiano to Boston Red Sox for SP Brian Johnson and OF Bryce Brentz

Why Boston Does It: Unless Brock Holt's .373 BABIP is real (it isn't), their outfield is in a really bad spot. Unless they're ready to give Christian Vazquez the everyday catching job (they're not), they need someone to bridge the gap to Blake Swihart. Castillo and Ruggiano fill two holes quite nicely for Boston.

Why the Cubs Do It: Castillo is superfluous with Martin on board and Ruggiano is homeless in the new Cubs outfield when the barrage of kids show up. Both would have plenty of value to the 2015 Cubs, but they'd have a longer term impact if they turned into Johnson and Brentz. Brentz has big righty power but contact issues at AAA; he projects as a reserve bat. Johnson was a supplemental first round choice in 2012, and the 6'3", 225 lbs. lefty has zoomed through the Boston system thanks to a polished approach to pitching. He's probably a 5th starter/swingman and the Cubs need a few more of those.

Closing Thought: This also saves about $6M in 2015 payroll and obviously more in the future.

That's four big transactions this time: two trades and two free agent splashes. Here's the revised 2015 roster by May or June, depending on when all the kids show up:

Starting Pitchers

Jon Lester - $22.5M

Jake Arrieta - $4.5M (approximately)

Zack Wheeler - $0.52M

Noah Syndergaard - $0.52M

Edwin Jackson - $11M

Analysis: That rotation features two stalwarts at the top with a pair of big-name, big-armed kids. And then Edwin the rebound candidate. The rotation costs $39.04M in 2015 with an arbitration raise for Arrieta the only expense increase for 2016; as an aside, Arrieta's arbitration salary is exceptionally difficult to project. Those are five massive arms with all of the Cubs pitching prospects ready to fill in the gaps as Kyle Hendricks and Dallas Beeler are the most likely names to find starts. The Cubs could certainly deal Edwin if an acceptable offer came their way.

Relief Pitchers

Hector Rondon - $0.52M

Neil Ramirez - $0.52M

Justin Grimm - $0.52M

Arodys Vizcaino - $0.53M

Pedro Strop - $1.9M (approximately)

Zac Rosscup - $0.52M

Brian Schlitter - $0.52M

Dallas Beeler - $0.52M

Analysis: No change here. Still an exciting bullpen for an absurd $5.55M. Armando Rivero and Blake Parker are still lurking for jobs in this scenario with Beeler living as the Villanueva-style long man. We've got plenty of arms and with Rondon and Ramirez both looking incredibly sharp, the arrow is decidedly pointing up.

Catchers

Russell Martin - $13M

Rafael Lopez - $0.52M

Analysis: Martin fills in the previous weak link, converting it to a position of strength. Lopez would definitely not be handed the backup job as he hits for no power, although his on-base skills have translated reasonably well from AA to AAA.

Infielders

Anthony Rizzo - $5M

Addison Russell - $0.52M

Kris Bryant - $0.52M

Javier Baez - $0.52M

Logan Watkins - $0.52M

Analysis: If Valbuena isn't dealt, he figures to stick around as the primary infield reserve. If he is dealt, the team could opt for an all-bat, no-glove reserve given the defensive flexibility of Russell, Baez, Watkins, and OF Arismendy Alcantara. This infield should go, from right to left, Rizzo, Baez, Russell, and Bryant. Holy smokes, it got even better since June (thanks Addison!). $7.08M gets the group in 2015.

Outfielders

Jorge Soler - $2M

Arismendy Alcantara - $0.52M

Chris Coghlan - $1.75M (approximately)

Junior Lake - $0.53M

Ryan Sweeney - $1.5M

Analysis: I said a few months ago that I thought Alcantara was bound for CF given his skill set and roster construction. Obviously that proved prescient. This projected outfield is a bit aggressive given Coghlan's relatively recent offensive emergence and his horrendous defensive production thus far as well as pushing Soler into a full-time MLB job. The club has been mentioned as players for Rusney Castillo, and depending on price/evaluation, Castillo makes tons of sense here, especially given that the group costs just $6.3M so far.

Given a $39.04M rotation, $5.55M bullpen, $13.52M catchers, $7.08M infield, and $6.3M outfield, the total spending for 2015 would be $71.49M on the 25-man roster, remarkably and almost impossibly under 2014's Opening Day total without even including nearly $15M of dead money for Alfonso Soriano and Scott Hairston. Filling the remainder of the 2015 40-man roster with minimum salary players, the 40-man number would reach approximately $79.29. Adding in contract buyouts for Kyuji Fujikawa and Jose Veras gets the number to just $80.09M.

So there it is. The Cubs could field a strong, exciting rotation with a similarly explosive lineup and excellent bullpen for $80M. Wow. While I did deal away Albert Almora (who I'm not high on to begin with, even though he faked me out for a bit at Spring Training), I built this roster holding onto every other useful youngster including Jacob Hannemann, Kyle Schwarber, Billy McKinney, Dan Vogelbach, Pierce Johnson, C.J. Edwards, Jen-Ho Tseng, Paul Blackburn, Juan Paniagua, etc.

Given the transactions above, the lineup would be as follows:

CF Alcantara

SS Russell

1B Rizzo

3B Bryant

2B Baez

RF Soler

C   Martin

LF Coghlan

There would be growing pains with the youngsters and injuries are always a risk. But come on, that's nasty. That octet playing behind a rotation of...

SP1 Lester

SP2 Arrieta

SP3 Wheeler

SP4 Syndergaard

SP5 Jackson

SP6 Hendricks

SP7 Beeler
SP8 Montero

...is basically the dream. I know that this world will never exist, but I don't care. I'd love it so darn much.

This also maintains plenty of payroll flexibility by operating with a low payroll and talent flexibility by holding onto every non-Almora prospect. The projected expenses through 2017 remain eminently reasonable:

2016

Rotation: $43.58M (Lester ($22.5M), Arrieta ($9M), Wheeler ($0.55M), Syndergaard ($0.53M), Jackson ($11M))

Bullpen: $11.28M (Rondon ($4M), Ramirez ($0.53M), Grimm ($0.54M), Vizcaino ($2M), Strop ($2.6M), Rivero ($0.53M), Rosscup ($0.54M), Beeler ($0.54M))

Catchers: $13.53M (Martin ($13M), Lopez ($0.53M))

Infield: $7.13M (Rizzo ($5M), Baez ($0.53M), Bryant ($0.53M), Russell ($0.53M), Watkins ($0.54M))

Outfield: $7.61M (Soler ($3M), Alcantara ($0.54M), Schwarber ($0.53M), Coghlan ($3M), Lake ($0.54M))

TOTAL: $83.13M

2017

Rotation: $44.62M (Lester ($22.5M), Arrieta ($15M), Wheeler ($6M), Syndergaard ($0.56M), Hendricks ($0.56M))

Bullpen: $17.42M (Rondon ($7M), Ramirez ($0.55M), Grimm ($0.56M), Vizcaino ($3M), Strop ($3.5M), Rivero ($0.55M), Rosscup ($1.7M), Beeler ($0.56M))

Catchers: $13.55M (Martin ($13M), Lopez ($0.55M))

Infield: $9.21M (Rizzo ($7M), Baez ($0.55M), Bryant ($0.55M), Russell ($0.55M), Watkins ($0.56M))

Outfield: $10.61M (Soler ($3M), Alcantara ($0.56M), Schwarber ($0.55M), Coghlan ($5M), Lake ($1.5M))

TOTAL: $95.41M

There would still be plenty left on the farm for 2015 even if we assume that Alcantara, Baez, Russell, Bryant, Soler, Syndergaard, Hendricks, Montero, and Beeler all lose their prospect elgibility. The top remaining prospects after this series of transactions with their expected 2015 starting point in parentheses:

1. OF Kyle Schwarber (AA)
2. SP Jen-Ho Tseng (A+)
3. SP Steven Matz (AAA)
4. CF Jacob Hannemann (A+)
5. SP Paul Blackburn (A+)
6. OF Eloy Jimenez (SS)
7. SP Brian Johnson (AAA)
8. SP Pierce Johnson (AAA)
9. SP Duane Underwood (A+)
10. OF Billy McKinney (AA)
11. RP C.J. Edwards (AAA)
12. SP Rob Zastryzny (AA)
13. SP Dylan Cease (Rk)
14. SP Jeferson Mejia (A)
15. SP Erling Moreno (SS)
16. SP Carson Sands (A)
17. 1B Dan Vogelbach (AA)
18. SP Jake Stinnett (A)
19. SS Gleyber Torres (SS)
20. OF Mark Zagunis (A)
21. RP Juan Paniagua (AA)
22. SP Robert Whalen (A+)
23. RP Corey Black (AAA)

Plus I'm just not sure what to do with Dan Straily. The Cubs would also add a top-ten draft pick to this group.

Theo, if you're reading, let's do this. You can even save some cash by punting on Edwin and giving Hendricks his job!