More Fun With Starlin Castro Trade Proposals

I addressed the possibilities for Castro proposals back in July for Bleed Cubbie Blue. Castro had largely stagnated after a hot first half at that time, something that led to what now appear to be slightly underwhelming trade returns. It's amazing how much a few weeks can change perception.

Anyway, the rationale for trading Castro remains consistent. Arismendy Alcantara has been moved to centerfield for the foreseeable future and his skill set projects better in center than it does at second as his speed can play up. Just as importantly, the team has a major need in center with Alcantara ready to fulfill it. A decent chunk of my thought in this regard comes from a general pessimism regarding Albert Almora, something that has returned in earnest in the months since seeing him in person.

With Alcantara in center, that leaves the three non-first base infield spots for Javier Baez, Addison Russell, Starlin Castro, Kris Bryant, and Luis Valbuena. There's a reason I was so on board with flipping Valbuena at the deadline. I recognize his value as a reserve, but that's it.

Anyway, Bryant is going to get a year or two to prove that he can hack it at third, as well he should. That leaves the two middle infield spot for three guys. Baez has the highest offensive ceiling, Russell isn't far behind and has the best defensive game, and Castro has the worst combined game among the trio, even though he's a very good, non-star regular. He's on pace for his third year in the last four with a WAR just a hair over 3.0. That's good, but it isn't special. His walk rate has improved, but his strikeout rate has climbed too even though his power has largely leveld off with an ISO around .150; again, good but not special by any stretch.

Having watched a few dozen games of Russell in addition to every video I could find of him on the Internet after his acquisition, I think he's going to be in Chicago next summer even having missed two months with a hamstring injury this year. Russell is hitting for big power, getting on base very well, limiting strikeouts, and he has rather easily the most refined yet still loud defensive game among Cubs middle infield prospects. He looks like a .290/.370/.500 player with 20 homers and 15 steals complementing his superb shortstop defense; that's a mega-star.

All of this drives home one point: even though Castro isn't exactly expendable, he's something of a luxury item on a team that still needs pitching. He'd be among the most sought-after players on the trade market should the Cubs seek to make him available.

So, yet again, let's do just that. Time for Rob's fun with Castro trades! I'm going to propose a Castro deal to every team starting with the least likely/attractive offer and finishing with my favorite proposal.

HOUSTON: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Houston Astros for SP Dallas Keuchel and SP Lance McCullers
Keuchel is not exciting at all. The lefty averages just 89.5 mph on his fastball and comes with the pedigree of most seventh round picks. However, after a solid showing in 2013, he has been very good in 2014. I don't believe fully in the package so McCullers is an important addition. Regardless, a deal headlined by Keuchel just doesn't do it for me. I'd rather have Carlos Correa, but Houston won't move him. That leaves George Springer (24-year-old with tons of strikeouts and a mediocre glove), Mark Appel (yikes), Mike Foltynewicz (reliever), and Jon Singleton (1B). Just not a good match.

ANAHEIM: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro and SP Edwin Jackson to Anaheim Angels for SP Tyler Skaggs, SP Matt Shoemaker, OF Natanael Delgado, and SP Ricardo Sanchez
Obviously Skaggs is out for all of 2015 with his second Tommy John surgery, so his value is way down. Shoemaker is an organizational arm enjoying surprising success as a swingman. Delgado is a Rookie League bat with some thump and tons of strikeouts. Sanchez is a 17-year-old lefty pitching in instructional ball but holding his own. Every worthwhile prospect from the Angels system now plays in the Padres system. It's remarkable. It was not fun coming up with this package.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Chicago White Sox for OF Avisail Garcia, SS Tim Anderson, and SP Erik Johnson
You've got to love Garcia to sink your teeth into this deal. Me? Not so much.

MILWAUKEE: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Milwaukee Brewers for OF Tyrone Taylor, SP Jimmy Nelson, and SP Devin Williams
A weird package, to be sure. Nelson is an MLB-ready arm with a #4 starter ceiling, so he's hardly a huge get. Taylor and Williams are both really raw, guys with big tools but little track records.

CINCINNATI: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Cincinnati Reds for SP Tony Cingrani, SP Robert Stephenson, and SP Ismael Guillon
Yet another trade I don't really like. This banks on 2014 being the fluke for Cingrani with 2013 being the norm. I don't buy that, at least not enough. Stephenson has top-of-the-rotation upside, but he also has multiple Double-A starts with seven walks. There's a lot of work to be done there. Guillon is a big-bodied lefty who requires lots of squinting to see as a big-time arm.

SAN FRANCISCO: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to San Francisco Giants for SP Kyle Crick, SP Adalberto Mejia, and C Andrew Susac
The Giants are a tough match. Crick has massive problems with walks, but he also has ace-caliber stuff. Mejia has plenty of stuff and the young lefty has had enough success to buy into his skills. Susac is the key in making this deal work. He draws plenty of walks and hits for solid power. If he can (1) stay a catcher and (2) project to hit .250 or better, he's a worthy starting catcher. If either of those factors falls short, he's not much of a target.

OAKLAND: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Oakland A's for SP Jeff Samardzija, C John Jaso, and SP Raul Alcantara
Well wouldn't that be funny? The A's have been looking for middle infield support, and this package coming back to the Cubs is nearly perfect with Samardzija filling an important rotation role, Jaso complementing Castillo at catcher, and Alcantara entering the ranks of the Cubs prospect arms once he returns from surgery next summer.

CLEVELAND: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Cleveland Indians for SP Trevor Bauer and OF Clint Frazier
Talk about a weird looking deal. Bauer is still totally boom-or-bust despite having reached the Majors, and Frazier appears to be much slower moving than many expected. Still, the ceilings here are immense.

ST. LOUIS: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to St. Louis Cardinals for SP Lance Lynn and SP Marco Gonzales
Castro-for-Lynn is a really interesting deal. Lynn is a cheap, productive starter, but he lacks ideal upside. Gonzales is a lefty changeup specialist who profiles as a back-end starter. This is probably the lowest ceiling package, but that's the nature of dealing with rivals; both teams would likely fear making a splashier move.

ARIZONA: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro and C Welington Castillo to Arizona Diamondbacks for C Miguel Montero, SP Braden Shipley, SP Aaron Blair, and SS Sergio Alcantara
The Cubs get a slight catching upgrade in exchange for absorbing the three years and $40M remaining on Montero's deal. Shipley is the prize as a big-time prospect arm. Blair has progressed nicely since being drafted, and Alcantara is an 18-year-old flyer in short-season ball. This trade looks a little funky, but in the end it offers the kind of upside plays and immediate improvement that you'd like to see.

KANSAS CITY: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Kansas City Royals for SP Kyle Zimmer, SP Sean Manaea, and SS Orlando Calixte
Zimmer's stock took a big hit in 2014 as injuries prevented him from making any starts. As such, he has just four starts above High-A to his credit. Manaea also comes with significant injury concerns given a hip labrum problem that caused a big draft drop. To Manaea's credit, he has really turned things up at High-A recently. Calixte figures to be a utility guy with a nice defensive game and some power offset by on-base struggles.

TORONTO: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Toronto Blue Jays for SP Daniel Norris, SP Roberto Osuna, and SP Jairo Labourt
Acquiring Castro enables the Jays to play Brett Lawrie at 3B and Castro at 2B on either side of Jose Reyes. That's a strong infield. Norris would have the right of way to a 2015 rotation job while Osuna may actually be the crown jewel in this deal; Labourt is a lottery ticket addition. The Cubs and Jays aren't a great match on Castro.

 

SEATTLE: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Seattle Mariners for SP James Paxton, SP Luiz Gohara, and SP Victor Sanchez

Paxton can pitch in the 2015 rotation, Gohara is the ultimate lottery ticket, and Sanchez has a terrible body with good results at a very young age.

PITTSBURGH: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Pittsburgh Pirates for SP Jameson Taillon and OF Harold Ramirez
Taillon is the huge get, although he comes with the massive red flag of 2014 Tommy John surgery. He likely will struggle as he returns in 2015, but the top-end ceiling remains. Ramirez is a nice, five-tool guy with no plus tool who has a relatively long developmental path ahead of him. This is all about Taillon and it's probably more risk than the Cubs brain trust is willing to accept.

BALTIMORE: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Baltimore Orioles for SP Kevin Gausman and C Chance Sisco
This deal is all about Gausman, an MLB-ready mid-to-top-of-the-rotation arm. Sisco and Victor Caratini could fight for years to be the successor to Welington Castillo.

DETROIT: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Detroit Tigers for SP Rick Porcello, SP Jonathon Crawford, OF Steven Moya, and C James McCann
The Tigers system alone can't pull this deal together, but Porcello makes for an interesting headliner. He's a year from free agency, but he could likely be extended. The prospect package coming back is truly underwhelming: a 22-year-old with 65 strikeouts in 99 innings in the Midwest League, a 22-year-old with a sub-.300 OBP despite big power, and a backup catcher. Porcello is good and that makes this deal palatable.

SAN DIEGO: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to San Diego Padres for SP Tyson Ross and SP Max Fried
This return also involves a lot of risk. Ross is in his first year as a full-time MLB starter even though he's already 27. His results have been very strong and his groundball tendencies make him attractive in Wrigley Field. Fried was among the top pitching prospects in baseball last year, but a year of elbow pain has limited him to five very poor appearances; Tommy John surgery appears inevitable. However, the chance to get a talent like Fried's and a productive, cheap starter like Ross makes the deal worthwhile.

COLORADO: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro and OF Jacob Hannemann to Colorado Rockies for SP Eddie Butler and OF David Dahl
I assume that Jon Gray is totally off limits. If that's the case, this is about as well as the Cubs could hope to do. The Rockies could easily trade Troy Tulowitzki this winter, finding themselves in need of a new shortstop. Dahl probably won't ever draw a lot of walks, but his game is diverse with value coming via every facet.

MIAMI: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Miami Marlins for SP Andrew Heaney and SP Nathan Eovaldi
Heaney has pitched exceptionally well in the minors but the 23-year-old's first taste of the Bigs went very poorly. Adeiny Hechavarria isn't going to last at SS in Miami, so Castro finds a long-term home. Eovaldi is a mid-to-back-of-the-rotation guy with a massive arm. He's certainly shown enough to be a valuable addition.

BOSTON: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Boston Red Sox for SP Henry Owens and C Blake Swihart
It's been a while since the Cubs acquired a switch-hitting catcher. Swihart would have a shot at the Opening Day 2015 starting job and he would profile as a plus catcher from mid-summer onward. Owens has been out of his mind this year and his value is certainly inflated thanks to that success. Still, this would be a solid haul for the Cubs.

WASHINGTON: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro and SP Juan Paniagua to Washington Nationals for SP Jordan Zimmermann and SP A.J. Cole
Zimmermann is a really solid starter, but he's never been great and he does have 2009 Tommy John surgery on his resume. He's also only controlled for 2015 at a market rate of $16.5M. This deal is about the chance to get Zimmermann in house and acquire the near-ready Cole to throw into the rotation as well. It certainly isn't as sexy as the other packages discussed, but it still gives the Cubs two arms for the 2015 rotation.

ATLANTA: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Atlanta Braves for SP Mike Minor and SP Lucas Sims
The Cubs take a chance on Minor returning to form after a BABIP-driven disappointment in 2014. He's already into arbitration, something that could lead the Braves to seek out an alternative use of his projected salary. Sims is their top prospect, although he has had his fair share of struggles in High-A this year and clearly needs a couple of years of additional development. The upside play for the Cubs is significant, but this is among the riskiest deals.

NEW YORK YANKEES: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro and 1B Dan Vogelbach to New York Yankees for SP Ian Clarkin, C Gary Sanchez, OF Mason Williams, and OF Brett Gardner
I'm an unabashed Clarkin supporter; I have no shame admitting it. I think he's going to be really good. He's also new to the Florida State League, so he has a long way to go. Sanchez still has plenty of raw tools, but his stock has fallen mightily to the point that he can't be the centerpiece of this deal. Gardner is an ideal fit for the current Cubs as a leadoff-hitting left fielder while the Yankees would covet Vogelbach's lefty offense in Yankee Stadium. The Cubs take a flyer on Williams too. This would be a stunning deal, but I certainly expect the Yankees to come calling this winter.

PHILADELPHIA: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Philadelphia Phillies for SP Cole Hamels, SP Cliff Lee, and $15M
Boom! The Cubs would absorb massive salary commitments in this deal, but Hamels immediately becomes the staff ace while the Cubs take a shot on Lee returning to health. If he does so, he could very easily be the best pitcher on the team considering his dominant run from 2008-2013 in which he posted between 4.8 and 7.1 WAR every season. When healthy in 2014, his FIP has been every bit as good.

The contract situation is the driver of this deal. The duo is owed $47.5M in 2015. In 2016, the Phillies hold a club option on Lee for $27.5M that carries a $12.5M buyout making its exercise quite likely; Hamels is owed $22.5M for the year, bringing the pair's total to $50M. The $15M included in the deal covers Lee's $15M net option price. The Cubs would owe Hamels $22.5M in 2017, $22.5M in 2018, and (likely) $20M in 2019. While these salary figures are massive, they represent an opportunity for the Cubs to nab two excellent starters to plug in immediately. This simultaneously improves the team dramatically in 2015 and enables them to be more open-minded when it comes to trading other pitchers. If the Cubs sought to push their payroll back to 2009 levels (there's no indication that this is the case), they could still fit Jon Lester into the fold.

Disclaimer: the above deal would require Ruben Amaro to be a logical person, so there is a 0% chance of it happening.

TAMPA BAY: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro, CF Albert Almora, and 1B Dan Vogelbach to Tampa Bay Rays for SP Chris Archer, SP Jake Odorizzi, and UTIL Ben Zobrist
The Cubs immediately plug Archer and Odorizzi into the rotation behind Jake Arrieta and (presumably) Jon Lester giving the club four extremely strong starting options with Kyle Hendricks in the driver's seat for the fifth job and Edwin Jackson and Travis Wood fighting for employment. Zobrist is only under contract for 2015 via a club option and he turns 34 in May, so he's on the back-end of his usefulness.

MINNESOTA: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro and SP Paul Blackburn to Minnesota Twins for SP Alex Meyer, SP Kohl Stewart, and Competitive Balance Round B Pick #4 in 2015
I'm sure even throwing this trade proposal out in the universe has given Twins fans heart palpitations, but it feels like genuinely appropriate value for Castro. Meyer would step into the 2015 rotation while Stewart immediately becomes the ace prospect of the organization. Surrendering the emerging Blackburn is tough for the Cubs, but it's worth it to grab Stewart's ceiling.

LOS ANGELES: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro and RP Corey Black to Los Angeles Dodgers for OF Joc Pederson and SP Zach Lee
This one is easy to propose and unlikely to be accepted by the Dodgers. However, if Hanley Ramirez bolts in free agency, Los Angeles could make a very attractive trade partner for the Cubs.

NEW YORK METS: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro and SP Juan Paniagua to New York Mets for SP Zach Wheeler and SP Noah Syndergaard
I'll just keep proposing this deal until it happens.

TEXAS: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Texas Rangers for C Jorge Alfaro and SP Alex Gonzalez
Gonzalez has motored through the Texas system and has the look of a mid-rotation arm. But Alfaro is as big of a prize as any listed in this entire post. He's got the body to stick behind the plate, and his arm is Molina-esque. Throw in big power and decent on-base ability, and you've got a star in the making.

Closing Thoughts
I'm ready for a Castro deal. It's that simple. The Cubs can capitalize on his value this offseason to infuse even more talent to help the 2015 and especially the 2016-18 clubs as they chase some flags. I'd certainly like to see a deal before Castro's salary inflates and some of the smaller market teams drop out as players.