Ryan Pace gets an "F" for this offseason so far. He needed to use some of his massive cap space to secure some elite talent for his improving roster, yet he only managed to acquire a group of space-fillers in QB Mike Glennon, TE Dion Sims, CB Prince Amukamara, SS Quintin Demps, CB Marcus Cooper, and WR Markus Wheaton. It's particularly telling that none of these players secured anything in excess of a glorified one-year deal: Glennon is the only player signed by the Bears with more than $1M of dead money on his contract should he be released next offseason, and even Glennon got far less guaranteed money than I expected, perhaps a result of the dearth of a market for him.
Some of the players listed above may turn out to be good fits. Some may stick around for the subsequent year(s) on their contracts. But none were brought in to significantly alter the talent level of the roster, hence Pace's failing free agency grade.
Alas, the draft offers a shot at redemption. Last year, Pace executed every draft fan's dream when he traded the 41st pick to Buffalo for picks 49 and 117 in addition to a 2017 fourth-round pick. Then he doubled down on the dream, spinning and trading 49 to Seattle for 56 and 124 before ultimately selecting a player with the look of a long-term solution in lineman Cody Whitehair. He undid some of this good work when he traded 117 along with 206 to the Rams for 113, but at least Nick Kwiatkoski looked like a possible rotation player as a rookie.
Pace enters the 2017 draft with a full allotment of seven selections, though the Bears have a pair of fourth rounders and no sixth rounder (as a result of the misguided Khari Lee trade - trading a sixth-round pick for a player that was available as an undrafted free agent six months earlier is a tough pill to swallow).
In 2017, the mantra remains the same: trade down, almost without regard to the package coming back. The Bears roster is still a couple of churns away from having enough talent to compete for a championship, so adding a depth of useful bodies is key. Trading down - or even trading away the club's top pick entirely for future considerations - should be the goal. If the Bears can get their hands on the type of package that the Titans or Browns got last year in exchange for trading halfway down in the first round, they should do it in an instant. The top quarterbacks in this draft class all figure to be available in the middle portion of the first round (possibly excepting Mitch Trubisky), and both DeShone Kizer and Deshuan Watson are likely to take a couple of years to be ready to lead a playoff push. If the Bears can trade down to the middle of the round with a team in search of a key upgrade like the Colts, Bucs, or Titans, it's a slam dunk move.
Caveat: if Myles Garrett is inexplicably available at #3, he has to be the pick. But he won't be, so that's irrelevant.
Of course, every team wants to trade down, so let's assume that the Bears keep their full allotment of picks. I don't want to go too in-depth on a bunch of players right now, so instead I'll bunch the possibilities into three groups: good picks, neutral picks, and bad picks. Here goes:
GOOD
OLB Myles Garrett: elite player
S Malik Hooker: I don't love a safety at #3, but Hooker is an impact talent as an incredible athlete with sideline-to-sideline speed and excellent ball skills. Sign me up.
QB Mitch Trubisky: if the front office believes that he's the guy, he's a fine pick at #3
NEUTRAL
DE Soloman Thomas: great player, poor 3-4 fit
DE Jonathan Allen: good player, lots of injuries
CB Marshon Lattimore: great player, lots of injuries
OLB Derek Barnett: he'd be overdrafted at #3, but you can never have too much of a pass rush
QB DeShone Kizer: I love Kizer, but most seem to have him in the mid-to-late first round. #3 is much too rich.
BAD
QB Patrick Mahomes: Jay Cutler 2.0
QB Deshaun Watson: an intriguing player but one who should be available 30 picks later
SS Jamal Adams: drafting a SS at #3 is a whiff, particularly in a pass-first league
WR Mike Williams: letting Alshon walk then drafting Williams would be an indictment of Pace's sensibility
RB Leonard Fournette: no RB this high
RB Christian McCaffrey: ditto Fournette
DE Taco Charlton: nowhere near productive enough on the actual football field
Most of the same targets that I've written about in previous pieces are attractive elsewhere in the draft, though some have moved up a round or so (like Washington CB Kevin King) while others have dropped a round (like Michigan State DE Malik McDowell).
In the end, there are really only two ways for Pace to mess up this draft. First, he can stay at #3 and draft one of Mahomes, Watson, Adams, Williams, Fournette, McCaffrey, or Charlton. Second, he can trade up, an inexcusable move for a team so light on talent. That's it. Just about anything else will be a good result for a franchise desperately in need of a talent infusion.
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