At least we have the Cubs.
Tonight marks the beginning of the end of Ryan Pace's tenure as general manager. It's possible that QB Mitch Trubisky becomes the long-awaited savior at the game's most important position. But if he does so, it won't happen for a number of years by which point Pace will be long gone.
It was a tough night to be a Bears fan. Earlier today, I posted a series of 15 possible outcomes for the Bears in the first round ranked from best to worst. A trade with San Francisco to select Trubisky wasn't on the list, but it would have come in around 13th, even if Trubisky turns out to be a viable NFL starting quarterback. The Bears are largely bereft of impact talent on their roster, yet armed with upwards of $70M of cap space this spring, Pace whiffed on the available impact players. Naturally he still spent most of his money, but for all of his acquisitions, only Mike Glennon carries more than $1M of dead cap space should he be released following the season. Pace wasn't able to get an impact player to Chicago in free agency, thus needing to build the entire roster through the draft. Trading away two third-round picks and a fourth-round selection to boot isn't going to help with that process.
In my eyes, Pace gets an F minus for his effort tonight. I often point to the inexplicably terrible trade that the Browns made with the Vikings in the 2012 draft as reference point for inept draft maneuvering, but Pace has a chance to rival the Browns. In 2012, the Browns moved up for Trent Richardson, allowing the Vikings to drop a slot while still selecting desperately-needed tackle Matt Kalil. Every team in the league knew that Minnesota needed to get their hands on Kalil to fill a gaping hole. They couldn't afford the risk of dropping below the fourth slot given that any number of teams could move up and snatch Kalil out from under their noses (Kalil was the only offensive tackle taken in the top 20 of the draft). Instead of calling Minnesota's bluff, Cleveland paid fourth, fifth, and seventh round choices to lock-in Richardson.
Tonight, Pace followed in their footsteps.
The draft's worst-kept secret was that Cleveland would take Myles Garrett. The draft's second worst-kept secret was that San Francisco's new regime was head over heels for Solomon Thomas. Unless they picked up a massive bounty, they weren't leaving Philadelphia without Thomas on board. Accordingly, they had the choice of either taking him at #2 or trading down to a spot where they could be reasonably certain that Thomas was available. Obviously #3 would qualify, provided that whoever they traded with didn't take Thomas themselves. However, anything lower than #3 opened up the possibility that Thomas ended up elsewhere. Accordingly, San Francisco couldn't afford to drop below #3. But the Bears also reportedly loved Thomas and could have utilized his pass rushing prowess up front. If San Francisco either took Trubisky or traded their pick to another team that would, they'd likely lose out to the Bears for Thomas. As a result, San Francisco couldn't deal with any non-Bears team without likely missing out on Thomas. Pace needed to stand firm and call John Lynch's bluff, forcing Lynch to take Trubisky himself, take Thomas, or give up the Thomas dream. Instead, Pace paid a huge price for the certainty of bringing Trubisky on board.
But why? Trubisky looks like an interesting prospect. He's got a good arm, a solid body, good mobility, and seemingly possesses many of the intangibles that teams love. But he's a prospect, not a relative sure-thing in the mold of Eli Manning, Cam Newton, and the like. Paying a premium to move up for a dynamite talent like Garrett -- one that comes with a very high floor -- makes good sense to me. Paying a premium to move up for a wild card like Trubisky is reckless.
Then there's the value. According to the old, outdated draft pick value chart, the Bears acquired 400 points of value in moving from #3 to #2. They surrendered 255 points in the #67 choice and 72 more points with #111, a total of 327 points. But then they threw in their 2018 third-round pick, a pick whose value has a floor of 116 points. Even factoring in that the 2018 pick is slightly less valuable as a future selection, San Francisco did well for themselves. There is, of course, one additional tiny matter: the Bears aren't winning the 2017 Super Bowl. They're not making the playoffs. They're likely living in the bottom of the barrel again, meaning that the 49ers likely acquired an additional pick in the 65-75 range, picks with an average value of 240 points. Pace got fleeced.
It looks even worse if we use Chase Stuart's updated value chart. For Stuart, the gap between #2 and #3 is all of 2.6 points (30.2 - 27.6). Pick #67 alone is worth 7.8 points. Pick #111 adds another 4.6. Factor in that the average of picks #65-75 is 7.5 more, and Pace got 30.2 points in exchange for 47.5 points. Ouch.
Here's a sobering thought for Bears fans: no only is Trubisky unlikely to play as a rookie, he's unlikely to dress on game days to start his professional tenure, instead watching Mike Glennon and Mark Sanchez take reps. Trubisky is raw having only 13 collegiate starts under his belt. More importantly, the Bears have one of the worst left tackles in the NFL (Charles Leno, Jr.) and their receiving options are either risky or terrible, depending on your outlook. It'd be outrageous to throw Trubisky into the fire for a team without dynamic weapons on the outside and with a putrid blind side protection scheme. The Bears have surprised me a lot over the past year or so, but I don't expect a coach fighting for his job to break in a particularly green rookie.
So if the Bears traded away a bunch of picks and they're not even going to play the guy that they acquired, what's going to happen? That's right: Tankapalooza 2017. The Bears are going to be dreadfully bad in 2017. Sure, they spent money to plug holes, but the did so with sub-par players. Given what should be the league's worst passing offense and some of the worst special teams, and the Bears appear headed for something in the neighborhood of two to four wins. This might be a bit easier to take had the Bears not included their 2018 third-round pick in the Trubisky deal.
It is particularly difficult to watch Pace's downfall after his first two offseasons were so wildly successful with both free agency and the draft paying dividends. That success ran out seven weeks ago and it hasn't returned.
One implication of tonight's deal is that Pace is almost certainly not going to pick at #36 tomorrow night. He needs to acquire some extra picks, so expect to see something along the lines of last year's Cody Whitehair double-trade-down with Pace looking to recoup one of the third rounders that he surrendered to get Trubisky.
Mike Glennon: he was brought in to be a one-year starter and now that's definitely what he'll be. If he's superb in 2017, the Bears will be ecstatic as they flip him to Cleveland, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, the Jets, or some other QB-needy teams this time next year. If he flops, oh well. It was only cash and some short-term cap space.
Finally, strangely, I suppose that some kudos are in order for Pace. Pace very clearly believes that Trubisky is a franchise quarterback capable of leading the Bears to football glory. He believes it so fully that he was willing to mortgage the next couple of seasons in order to acquire Trubisky, a decision that is all but certain to cost Pace his job in 2019 or 2020. In some sense, that's noble.
Of course, it also means that the Bears are in for a ton of losses in 2017 and 2018. Buckle up. It's going to be a painful ride.
No comments:
Post a Comment