Accordingly, I'm going to create this running post to analyze significant (and sometimes not so significant) free agent moves and trades made during this early free agency period. I'll post Bears moves in a separate piece as I have in previous years.
Important reminder: no grade inflation here! A "C" is average. A "D" is below average. An "F" is failing. A "B" is above-average. An "A" is peak value.
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Thursday April 12 @ 9:03pm
Saints Sign WR Cam Meredith for 2 years, $9.6M ($5.4M guaranteed)
Saints: B. I addressed this deal from the Bears' perspective elsewhere (note: it wasn't pretty), so it's unsurprising that I like this for the Saints. Meredith is a strong risk to take, a productive player coming off of a rough injury but one that was suffered in the preseason, offering additional recovery time. (The Saints really crushed this offseason in my eyes: I loved the deals for Brees and Okafor and really liked the deals for Meredith and Davis)
Panthers Sign CB Ross Cockrell for 2 years, $6.8M ($??? guaranteed)
Panthers: A-. Carolina negated Bashaud Breeland's deal due to a foot infection, but they came out even better when Cockrell fell into their laps on this modest deal. The whole thing could be guaranteed and it'd get a strong grade for a player coming off of a strong platform year in Buffalo (81.6 PFF).
Browns Sign CB E.J. Gaines for 1 year, $4M ($1.4M guaranteed)
Browns: A. Cleveland continues its run of "A" or "F" moves. This one is easy: Gaines was a star last year (86.6 PFF) and he just turned 26. I only wish Cleveland had bought more control.
Jaguars Sign WR Donte Moncrief for 1 year, $9.6M ($9.6M guaranteed)
Jaguars: F. A leading contender for worst deal of 2018, this signing is painful. The Jaguars let Aaron Colvin walk in free agency presumably due to concerns about his price. They also moved on from Allen Hurns and his one-year, $7M deal. Both moves are understandable in a vacuum. But as part of an offseason in which the club gave Moncrief nearly $10M, they're excruciating for Jacksonville fans. Moncrief was horrendous in 2017 (49.1 PFF). He has missed 11 games over the last two seasons. He had 56 catches for 698 yards in 2017, numbers that look solid and even good considering that Andrew Luck didn't throw him a pass all year...but they look a lot different when you realize that those are his aggregate totals from 2017 when combined with 2016. This contract is insane.
Raiders Sign ILB Tahir Whitehead for 3 years, $19M ($6.275M guaranteed)
Raiders: B+. I like these kinds of deals. Whitehead really emerged for the Lions in 2017 (79.6 PFF), and this deal pays him for that level of production. Why is it nice? First, many ILBs got paid quite a bit more this year. Second, Whitehead only has guarantees in Y1 in the event that his 2017 was a fluke. Good news for Oakland.
Jaguars Sign TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins for 2 years, $10M ($4M guaranteed)
Jaguars: D-. Seferian-Jenkins has the pedigree and athleticism to be good at football, but he's been consistently bad instead. Sure, he's only 25, but he's coming off of arguably his best year in 2017. How did he do? A 47.7 grade. And he'll be tough to cut with $1.605M of dead money in 2019. Bad deal.
Jets Sign C Spencer Long for 4 years, $27M ($6M guaranteed)
Jets: C-. Long isn't good (56.0 PFF), but this is truly a one-year deal with no dead money or guarantees beyond Y1. If the Jets catch lightning in a bottle, great! If not, they move on with no harm.
Buccaneers Sign DE Vinny Curry for 3 years, $23M ($11.5M guaranteed)
Buccaneers: A. Awesome deal for Tampa. Curry got caught in a Philadelphia cap crunch and Tampa was there to be the beneficiary, scooping up the highly-productive 30-year-old (84.8 PFF) on a deal that only guarantees money in Y1.
Cardinals Sign G Justin Pugh for 5 years, $45.025M ($13M guaranteed)
Cardinals: D. Pugh was a good and productive guard for a few years. But then 2017 happened and Pugh completely flopped as a right tackle (52.4 PFF). He's going to be 28 in August and his $10M signing bonus will make it nearly impossible to cut him prior to 2021. The Cardinals are paying Pugh as if only 2014-16 happened and/or as if Pugh was good in 2017. It's a bizarrely significant commitment.
Texans Sign CB Tyrann Mathieu for 1 year, $7M ($6.5M guaranteed)
Texans: A. Mathieu was cut loose from Arizona because of his contract and some injury issues, not because of his general production. Now, the Texans get a motivated 26-year-old coming off of a fine season (77.0 PFF) in a contract year. It doesn't get better than that.
Buccaneers Sign C Ryan Jensen for 4 years, $42M ($22M guaranteed)
Buccaneers: D-. Jensen is an average center (74.9 PFF) being paid like a superstar. The first two years of his deal are fully guaranteed with no dead money after that second year. That's the only thing that keeps this from being an F.
Patriots Sign OLB Adrian Clayborn for 2 years, $10M ($5.5M guaranteed)
Patriots: C+. Clayborn looked overwhelmingly likely to be overpaid by virtue of his six-sack performance against the Cowboys. Instead, the market overreacted and a plus 30-year-old coming off of a great season (85.5 PFF) got a small guarantee.
Ravens Sign WR Michael Crabtree for 3 years, $21M ($8M guaranteed)
Ravens: D. Crabtree used to be good and even possibly really good, but this deal is all about Baltimore being desperate, throwing big money at a 30-year-old receiver coming off of a subpar season (71.4 PFF).
Raiders Sign CB Rashaan Melvin for 1 year, $5.5M ($4.85M guaranteed)
Raiders: B+. Melvin was excellent for Indianapolis in 2017 (85.7 PFF) and he's young enough at 28 to produce again in 2018. Great move by Oakland.
Vikings Sign DE Sheldon Richardson for 1 year, $8M ($7.8M guaranteed)
Vikings: B+. Minnesota getting Richardson on a ring-chasing deal is a huge win for them.
Saints Sign DE Alex Okafor for 2 years, $6.7875M ($1.5M guaranteed)
Saints: A. One of my favorite deals of the offseason. Okafor is coming off of an Achilles tear, but somehow this is still a massive value for New Orleans. Okafor is only 27 and coming off of a huge year in 2017 (84.7 PFF). The market was seriously limited for edge defenders, yet Okafor came back on wildly understated terms. Wow!
Redskins Sign ILB Zach Brown for 3 years, $24M ($5.5M guaranteed)
Redskins: D-. This is some kind of bad deal. Brown was terrible in 2017 (61.8 PFF) and he's already 28, so it's not as if we can expect big improvement in the future. I don't get it.
Saints Sign ILB Demario Davis for 3 years, $24M ($16M guaranteed)
Saints: B. That guarantee is a nice haul for Davis. But in an offseason where every starting-caliber ILB got $8M+, Davis is the deal that I like the best because, well, I like Davis the best. He was stellar in 2017 (87.3 PFF) and he plays a position where he should be highly productive into his early 30s given the mental/leadership demands.
Raiders Sign WR Jordy Nelson for 2 years, $14.2M ($6.4M guaranteed)
Raiders: D-. What? Nelson was decently productive in his limited action in 2017 (74.9 PFF), but he's 33 and coming off of a barrage of injuries. This is really only a one-year deal (no dead money in 2019), but it still doesn't make sense.
Panthers Sign DT Dontari Poe for 3 years, $27M ($10.8M guaranteed)
Panthers: B-. The Poe signing on its own is a nice deal: Poe comes with a great pedigree, is close enough to his prime to produce (28), and played wonderfully in 2017 (81.5 PFF). Factoring in that Poe is a huge upgrade over Star Lotulelei and came to Carolina on a preferable contract, this has been a nice set of transactions for the team.
Titans Re-Sign DE DaQuan Jones for 3 years, $21M ($14M guaranteed)
Titans: B-. I'm solidly biased in favor of Jones after watching his splendid collegiate career at Penn State, but trying to turn that bias off, this is still a good deal for Jones. He's 26, coming off of a strong year (80.8 PFF), plays an important spot in the 3-4, and I like times finding continuity along their defensive line.
Browns Sign CB T.J. Carrie for 4 years, $31M ($8M guaranteed)
Browns: A. This is precisely the type of deal that the Browns should be hammering. Carrie was splendid in 2017 (84.3 PFF), he'll be just 28 in 2018, and they can cut him loose with $2.7M of dead money after 2018. If he hits, they've got a near-star on a good deal. If not, oh well, it's only money.
Bills Sign OLB Trent Murphy for 3 years, $22.5M ($7.875M guaranteed)
Bills: B. I really like this deal for Buffalo. Murphy carries plenty of risk after suffering a catastrophic knee injury last August in which he tore both his ACL and MCL. But doggone it, he was a highly productive, every-down edge defender for years before that injury and he'll be just 27 this year. There's plenty of reason to see lots of productivity in his future and the risk is relatively meager with the Bills able to get out of the deal for $3.5M of dead money after 2018.
Saints Sign CB Patrick Robinson for 4 years, $20M ($6M guaranteed)
Saints: C+. Robinson was spectacular in 2017 (89.8 PFF), a rare late-career breakout for a corner entering his 30s. He'll turn 31 right before the 2018 season begins, but I like this risk for the Saints. They can get out of the deal with $3.75M of dead money after Y1, but if Robinson continues to succeed, they'll possess him on an under-market deal. It's a strong move.
Giants Sign LT Nate Solder for 4 years, $62M ($34.8M guaranteed)
Giants: D+. Solder just turned 30 and is coming off of a decent -- but not great -- season (75.7 PFF), so this is a monstrous guarantee. He'll still have $8M of dead cap money on his deal for the 2020 season. However, he enjoyed a strong run with the Patriots prior to 2017, so it's possible that the Giants are going to be fine on this deal. Nevertheless, they get dinged a bit more given that they're in a strange spot in terms of their competitive window.
Texans Sign G Zach Fulton for 4 years, $28M ($13M guaranteed)
Texans: F+. The first F+ of free agency. Fulton just isn't good (68.8 PFF) and he's completely locked in for two years on this deal. He can be cut after 2019 with no cap hit and he's still young enough (26) to plausibly kick up near the average tier, but Fulton is being paid as a top-of-the-line guard with a multi-year guarantee. Gross.
Eagles Sign LB Nigel Bradham for 5 years, $40M ($6M guaranteed)
Eagles: B. The Bradham deal likely takes the cake for most deceptive deal this offseason. The productive, late-prime player (80.6 PFF, 29 years old) got a glorified one-year deal that comes with a cap hit of just $2M in 2018. If he's productive again next year, the hit jumps to $9M in 2019 with just $4M in dead money if he's cut after this upcoming season. That's quite the team-friendly deal.
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Sunday March 25 @ 9:45am
Jaguars Sign CB D.J. Hayden for 3 years, $19M ($9.45M guaranteed)
Jaguars: F. The Jaguars really missed the boat here. It's true that Hayden has been minimally better in the slot -- where he figures to play in Jacksonville -- than he has been outside, but entering 2017, his slot passer rating allowed (101.2) was only a hair better than it was outside (106.4). It was terrible either way. Hayden made the move from Oakland to Detroit and dropped a dud with a 50.7 grade. He's 28 this year. The Jaguars effectively guaranteed two years of his deal. There's no redeeming this move. They really screwed up their slot CB spot and should've found a couple extra million to keep Aaron Colvin around, who also got a glorified two-year deal.
49ers Sign RB Jerick McKinnon for 4 years, $30M ($12M guaranteed)
49ers: C+. The Niners have been pilloried all over he internet for this one, but I'm of the opinion that this is a plenty reasonable deal. McKinnon didn't stand out all that much in previous years, but he erupted in 2017 at 25 (84.6 PFF), especially catching passes out of the backfield, a skill that isn't particularly dependent on his offensive line. The Niners almost certainly know that they need to pair Jimmy Garoppolo with a strong pass-catching back, and McKinnon fits the bill. Plus, this is a glorified one-year deal: if they walk away after 2018, he leaves just $1.5M in dead money on their cap. If the deal is a smashing success, they keep McKinnon at less than half of his market rate in 2019 and at below-market rates in 2020 and 2021. Solid.
Browns Sign RB Carlos Hyde for 3 years, $15.25M ($16M guaranteed)
Browns: F. What are the Browns possibly thinking? Hyde began his career with strong results behind a strong San Francisco offensive line, but he slipped from a career high grade in 2015 (81.8) to an average grade in 2016 (73.2) and then tumbled to a putrid 51.6 in 2017. Hyde should've been looking at a one-year prove-it deal. Instead, the Browns swooped in with a deal that includes $2.333M in dead money if he is released after 2018. Insane.
Jets Sign ILB Avery Williamson for 3 years, $22.5M ($16M guaranteed)
Jets: B+. Williamson looked like a nice grab for the Jets at first glance. But upon further examination, he's a really nice get. Williamson posted an average grade as a 24-year-old third year player in 2016 (76.5 PFF), but he really emerged in his walk year as a key part of the Tennessee defense, posting a near-elite grade (85.6) in the middle of the unit. For a Jets team that figures to lean heavily on its defense when they employ a young quarterback, Williamson was a must.
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Tuesday March 13 @ 11:00pm
Titans Agree to Terms with G Josh Kline for 4 years, $26M ($9.25M guaranteed)
Titans: C-. Kline is expected to score in the $7-8M range on a multi-year deal. He's already 28 and coming off of a roughly average season (75.8 PFF). He's not a bad guy to retain for Tennessee, but the price is too high.
Titans Agree to Terms with RB Dion Lewis for 4 years, $20M ($11.5M guaranteed)
Titans: C. This is a serious risk for the Titans. Lewis missed all of 2013, couldn't find a job in 2014, missed half of 2015 waiting for a gig, and missed half of 2016 with injury. Lewis was a star at Pitt, but his NFL career was basically nothing through 2016.
But if you're going to take a risk, make sure it's for a player coming off of an elite season. That's Lewis, too, following his elite 87.2 grade. Does that make this a good move? No. But it keeps it from being a bad one.
Ravens Agree to Terms with WR Ryan Grant for 4 years, $29M ($14.5M guaranteed)
Ravens: D-. Woah boy. This one reeks. Grant peaked with a 72.9 PFF grade in 2017, but hadn't produced a grade above 51.1 in his first three years. He was a true one shot wonder...and his shot wasn't even that good.
Adding insult to injury: apparently this deal includes a $10M signing bonus, meaning that Grant is overwhelmingly likely to leave a significant chunk of dead money behind when he gets cut. That's a whiff.
Packers Agree to Terms with DE Muhammad Wilkerson for 1 year, $5M ($5M guaranteed)
Packers: A. This one hurts. Wilkerson was every 3-4 team's ideal flier this offseason after mailing it in for a year or two in New York...supposedly. In reality, Wilkerson turned in a 79.8 grade in 2017. If he only plays to that level again, this is a strong deal for the Packers. If he plays close to his 2011-15 upside, this is a grand slam.
Stinkin' Packers.
Jets Agree to Terms with QB Teddy Bridgewater for 1 year, $5M ($5M guaranteed)
Jets: A-. I have questions in light of this deal (are these actually the financial terms? has Bridgewater really fallen this far? Why sign McCown and Bridgewater on the same day?), but taken on its own, getting a player with Bridgewater's pedigree and recent NFL success for such a low commitment is a no-brainer.
Jets Agree to Terms with CB Trumaine Johnson for 5 years, $72.5M ($34M guaranteed)
Jets: C-. Terms aren't in yet, but reports have Johnson scoring $15M per year. This deal is almost certainly for four or five years, so let's evaluate it as such.
That's a lot of money for a player whose play slipped in 2017 (74.2 PFF) and who is now 28.
On the other hand, Johnson has prototype size (6-2, 205 pounds) and many years of plus production. It's a solid gamble for the Jets to take.
Lions Agree to Terms with CB Nevin Lawson for 2 years, $9.2M ($4.55M guaranteed)
Lions: D+. It's probably a glorified one year deal. It better be. Lawson was solid in 2016 with a 77.1 grade in full-time duty, so surely this deal looks good, right? No. In 2017, Lawson was healthy all year but relegated to reserve duty. The Lions rightly decided that they needed an upgrade, so they made a big play for Malcolm Butler...but struck out. Instead of formulating a new plan, they seemingly panic resigned Lawson.
Browns Agree to Terms with RT Chris Hubbard for 5 years, $37.5M ($18M guaranteed)
Browns: D-. Huh? Hubbard played to a low-average grade in limited snaps as a reserve in 2016 (71.7 PFF), but given a longer look of 780 snaps in 2017, he affirmed that he is best served as a swing tackle (69.6 PFF). It's not just that the Browns gave Hubbard an eye-popping financial total; it's much more that the alarming guarantee locks him into a multi-year look. Yeesh.
Titans Agree to Terms with CB Malcolm Butler for 5 years, $61M ($30M guaranteed)
Titans: C-. Butler is a really good player, so this move makes sense in that regard. Butler also came in around the very top of the free agent market despite a rather ho-hum season by his recent standards (79.0 PFF) and the fact that he's an older free agent (28). It's tough not to like what he has done in the past and it's always fair to wonder what's going on in Bill Belichik's head, but we're also talking about a player who got benched for the Super Bowl. Something is fishy here.
Rams Agree to Terms with CB Nickell Robey-Coleman for 3 years, $15.75M ($8M guaranteed)
Rams: A. How in the world did this deal happen? The Bills inexplicably cut Robey-Coleman last March after he emerged as a viable slot corner, then he shined brightly in his lone year in Los Angeles (84.9 PFF), continuing his ascent. His reward? One year's worth of Trumaine Johnson money...spread over three years. Brilliant move by the Rams.
Browns Agree to Terms with DE Chris Smith for 3 years, $14M ($4.5M guaranteed)
Browns: C-. The Browns are using their ample cap space in search of viable starters. Smith fits the bill as a below-average rusher from Cincinnati. He's only 26 and was drafted at #159 overall in 2014, so there could be something here.
It's tough to get excited -- I'd rather see the Browns trying to reclaim some former elite athlete -- but it's tough to be upset with what is almost surely a glorified one year deal.
Packers Agree to Terms with TE Jimmy Graham for 3 years, $30M ($11M guaranteed)
Packers: D+. Initial rumors pegged Graham's annual price tag in the neighborhood of $9-10M per year, so we'll use that as a baseline for evaluation.
At that price point, this deal is ludicrous. Graham comes with strong red zone skills thanks to his leaping ability and he has big name recognition. Those appear to be his primary attributes. In spite of the former fueling 10 touchdown grabs in 2017, Graham graded out at a putrid 54.1 in 2017. To be fair, Graham isn't that far removed from a strong 85.1 grade in 2016. Then again, he's also not that far removed from a knee injury that cost him half of the 2015 season.
It's entirely possible that Aaron Rodgers will toss 40 touchdowns to Graham over the life of this contract, but it's also possible that Graham's down-up-down tenure in Seattle and especially Seattle's decision not to apply the franchise tag to Graham are more telling predictors of his tenure to come in Green Bay.
Panthers Agree to Terms with CB Bashaud Breeland for 3 years, $24M ($11M guaranteed)
Panthers: C+. Breeland is a solid pickup for Carolina. He played well in his walk year (79.0 PFF) and quite well as a sophomore in 2015 (80.5), but a disastrous year in the middle (48.0) likely hurt his value, especially when he was eaten alive on the outside. He has consistently played much better in the slot, so it will be interesting to see if Carolina attempts to funnel his snaps to that spot on the defense.
Jets Agree to Terms with QB Josh McCown for 1 year, $10M ($10M guaranteed)
Jets: C. The Jets could do much worse than bringing back McCown to hold the keys for another year while they look for a future franchise quarterback. They also could've done much better with the likes of AJ McCarron and Teddy Bridgewater offering much more long-term upside.
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Tuesday March 13 @ 4:01pm
Texans Agree to Terms with CB Aaron Colvin for 4 years, $34M ($18M guaranteed)
Texans: B. I'm a big Colvin fan. He had an excellent pedigree before a Senior Bowl injury dropped him to the fourth round in the draft. From there, he worked his way into the Jacksonville rotation and reached a new peak in 2017, forming an elite trio with Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. Ironically, he's moving to Houston to fill the hole that Bouye's departure created a year ago.
Will he be overmatched on the outside after excelling in the slot? Who knows? We do know that Colvin played splendidly in the slot, so the fall back option is a strong one in an era where the nickel is the new base defense.
Jaguars Agree to Terms with WR Marqise Lee for 4 years, $38M ($18.5M guaranteed)
Jaguars: C+. Solid deal. Lee began his career living in the trainer's room due to lingering hamstring injuries, but he has missed just two games in the last two years, suggesting that he has turned a corner with his health. While he hasn't produced like a #1 option and likely never will, Lee's production (77.1 PFF), age (26), and pedigree (39th overall pick in 2014) all point to a solid #2 option. Now his contract matches that characterization.
Cardinals Agree to Terms with QB Sam Bradford for 1 year, $20M ($15M guaranteed)
Cardinals: D-. I...I...I just don't understand.
Arizona looks more and more like a rebuilding team every day, yet here they are, pouring $20M into a bottom-quartile quarterback. I can't wrap my head around it. If Arizona is rebuilding, a subpar veteran QB makes some sense but certainly not at this price point. If Arizona is going for it, Bradford makes no sense as an acquisition: he has literally been replaced everywhere he has played with his prior team enjoying massive leaps in productivity within a year. Bradford appears to be making his name power work. Kudos to him...and shrugs to the Arizona front office.
Dolphins Agree to Terms with WR Danny Amendola for 2 years, $12M ($8.25M guaranteed)
Dolphins: B+. Amendola isn't going to make it through the full season healthy. Everybody, including Dolphins brass, knows this. Yet this is still a strong addition.
Between Kenny Stills, the newly acquired Albert Wilson, and DeVante Parker, Miami has plenty of talented receivers but also a group that struggled in the absence of Ryan Tannehill in 2017. The franchise desperately needs Stills and Parker, in particular, to regain their form. Amendola should push them hard, stealing snaps if the other receivers aren't producing. And oh yeah: Amendola earned a strong grade (80.1) for 2017. There's plenty left in the tank. Strong move.
Redskins Agree to Terms with WR Paul Richardson for 5 years, $40M ($20M guaranteed)
Redskins: C-. Richardson is a solid receiving option. His strong PFF grade in 2016 (77.3) dropped somewhat when pushed into a bigger role in 2017 (72.4), something that should concern a team handing him cash on par with a starting gig. Richardson also suffered back-to-back significant injuries with an ACL tear in late 2014 and a hamstring injury upon his return in 2015.
Nevertheless, he remains young and fast. That can work in just about any offense. With receiver prices skyrocketing across the league this offseason, this is a mostly reasonable deal, if a bit pricey.
Lions Agree to Terms with OLB Devon Kennard for 3 years, $18.75M ($7.5M guaranteed)
Lions: B+. This is a strong signing for Detroit. Kennard is coming off a bit of a down season in 2017 (71.0 PFF), but that came on the heels of a very strong 2016 campaign (79.1 PFF). Kennard may not have extreme prowess in either run support or pass rushing, but he's a good player in both facets of the game and one of the league's most reliable tacklers, routinely grading with elite marks in that regard. Finding a steady player to stick in the linebacking corps is key as the Lions presumably watch Paul Worrilow and Tahir Whitehead walk in free agency and try to groom Jarrad Davis after a nightmarish rookie year (46.1 PFF).
Vikings Agree to Terms with QB Kirk Cousins for 3 years, $84M ($84M guaranteed)
Vikings: C. This is a weird deal to evaluate. On one hand, Cousins has been consistently above average in Washington, playing for different offenses and with a supporting cast that has turned over. He's in his prime.
On the other hand, Minnesota found lightning in a bottle with Case Keenum whose 2017 season was as productive as any year Cousins has had.
I understand the value of buying more certainty in the form of Cousins. That makes sense. On the other hand, Minnesota obtained no potential back-end value on the deal as Cousins was able to demand and secure a fully-guaranteed deal. This deal should work out fine for both parties, but there's no value to be had living at the top of the market, hence the average grade.
49ers Agree to Terms with C Weston Richburg for 5 years, $47.5M ($16.5M guaranteed)
49ers: D+. Richburg looked like something of a free agent land mine to me -- I didn't even include him on my Bears free agency preview despite their need for an interior lineman -- given his injury history and declining play in recent years: he exploded onto the scene as a sophomore in 2015 with an 87.2 grade and followed up with a strong 82.0 grade in 2016. This year, he stumbled to a 71.3 and missed most of the season with a concussion.
He has regularly been a much better pass blocker than a run blocker, so San Francisco shouldn't get killed for this deal as they move toward a more pass-happy offense with Jimmy Garoppolo in tow. But this is nevertheless likely to be an overpay when the dollars get reported.
Dophins Agree to Terms with WR Albert Wilson for 3 years, $24M ($??? guaranteed)
Dolphins: B+. The guarantee here will be interesting as it figures to dictate whether this is a glorified one or two year deal. Regardless, it's a nice move for a Miami team that was unwilling to pony up for Jarvis Landry. Wilson was elite at making defenders miss tackles in 2017, and he's an ascending player (77.7 PFF) entering his prime. While he's undersized at 5'9", he's also 200 pounds. Plus, New England never seems to struggle with undersized receivers who run good routes and Wilson will learn from one of the best with Julian Edelman joining him in teal.
Bills Agree to Terms with DT Star Lotulelei for 5 years, $50M ($18.5M guaranteed)
Bills: F. We don't need to see the terms to evaluate this deal: if Lotulelei got a nominal five year deal, he got north of $10M guaranteed and probably more like $20M. That's laughable.
He was a premium talent coming out of Utah and produced well as a rookie (81.3) and again as a sophomore (80.4). But the wheels completely fell off for him over the last couple of years as he bottomed out at 46.9 in 2016 before "recovering" to 49.5 in 2017. Lotulelei got a big chunk of the snaps in 2016, but it went so poorly that he was relegated to just over half of Carolina's defensive snaps in 2017 despite playing in every game both seasons. This is just terrible.
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Tuesday March 13 @ 9:17am
Chiefs Agree to Terms with ILB Anthony Hitchens for 5 years, $45M ($21.29M guaranteed)
Chiefs: C. This deal has been reported as being for approximately $9M per year, so we'll evaluate it as such, assuming that this is a glorified two-year deal.
That's a lot to play for a part-time player. Hitchens has played between 50% and 55% of Dallas' snaps for each of his four years as a professional. Hitchens graded out as a scrub in each of his first two seasons before improving as a junior and posting a strong 80.8 grade last year. He'll be 26 in 2017, so Kansas City is buying his prime given his ascension.
I like it when teams buy improving players. On the other hand, $9M per year (or thereabouts) is a hefty sum for a 3-4 inside linebacker.
Jaguars Agree to Terms with OG Andrew Norwell for 5 years, $66.5M ($30M guaranteed)
Jaguars: B+. Contrary to popular belief, the Jags do not have salary cap issues. They've got plenty of space and can make more of it rather easily if need be. Well, need officially be.
Norwell was the premier offensive lineman on the market this March and Jacksonville did well to bring him in on what looks exactly like a market-price deal. After years of ponying up over-the-top cash to lure free agents south, the Jacksonville appears to have been a preferred destination for Norwell, who likely spurned overtures from the sexier markets of New York (Giants) and the Bay Area (49ers) to join a contender. Getting a star player (88.8 PFF) in his prime (26) on a glorified two or three year deal makes sense for every team but it's especially true for Jacksonville who got positively putrid guard play from Patrick Omameh (53.6 PFF) and A.J. Cann (52.5 PFF) last year. Norwell gets the chance to form an elite unit up front with star center Brandon Linder (84.7 PFF), RT Jeremy Parnell (79.0 PFF) and project LT Cam Robinson (37.6 PFF).
For a team rolling with Blake Bortles for the foreseeable future, having an elite line paired with an elite back in Leonard Fournette makes tons of sense.
Saints Agree to Terms with QB Drew Brees for 2 years, $50M ($27M guaranteed)
Saints: C. They didn't screw it up. (UPDATED 3/13/18 with financials - they got a hefty discount, too)
Chiefs Agree to Terms with WR Sammy Watkins for 3 years, $48M ($30M guaranteed)
Chiefs: C-. Woah. That's a lot of dough for Watkins. The Allen Robinson deal also proved quite a bit pricier than expected -- turns out it's nice to hit free agency at 24! -- but Watkins has kicked that up a notch. The Chiefs clearly wanted a top option to pair with Patrick Mahomes and the combination of Mahomes' arm strength and Watkins' big-play ability must have been enticing. Watkins is young and despite middling production to date, I like the upside here.
So why the C-? The Chiefs are in a tighter cap spot than most big spenders in free agency and Watkins is a really risky buy for them. Most folks talked about Robinson coming off of a major injury, and while that's true, Watkins is the player with the lengthier and more concerning injury ledger. He has only played a full slate of games once (as a rookie in 2014) and his injury history is littered with concerning nuggets, such as:
- Hip labrum surgery following 2014;
- Calf strain in 2015 that cost him two games;
- Ankle sprain in 2015 that cost him two games;
- Broken foot in 2016 that cost him eight games; and
- Additional follow-up surgery on same broken foot following 2016 season.
Watkins may have suffered a concussion during the 2017 season, but he otherwise made it through unscathed and didn't miss any games, save for a Week 17 breather when the Rams rested their starters. Still, the risk here is significant and, in my eyes, the upside isn't as high as it is with Robinson.
Broncos Agree to Terms with QB Case Keenum for 2 years, $36M ($25M guaranteed)
Broncos: C. Those terms aren't terribly detailed right now. All we know at this point is that Keenum has agreed to terms with Denver and will be heading there for something in the neighborhood of $18-20M per year. I'm evaluating this deal as if it is a glorified two-year deal with approximately $40M guaranteed.
At that price point, this makes good sense. Normally I lambaste teams for giving big money to players who were previously available on cheap deals within the last year, but, well, Keenum is a quarterback. The rules simply don't apply in this facet of the marketplace.
Keenum is likely being signed to be a bridge quarterback to whomever Denver drafts with the fifth pick in April's draft. Thing is, unlike other bridge quarterbacks in the vein of Josh McCown or, gulp, Mike Glennon, Keenum is coming off of an absolutely fabulous season in which he posted a sparkling 85.3 PFF grade and he's only 30, middle aged in quarterback years. Keenum also comes with a prolific background at the collegiate level, for whatever that's worth eight years later. In Denver's dream scenario, Keenum posts prodigious numbers for two years and they enter the 2020 offseason trying to figure out if they should double down on Keenum and trade Darnold/Rosen/Allen/Mayfield or if it's time to hand he kiddo the reins, flipping Keenum for some tasty draft assets. If, on the other hand, the Keenum deal goes south, they likely have an overpriced backup in 2019 and they're out of the deal following that season with <$5M in dead cap space for 2020. Perfectly fine.
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Monday March 12 @ 8:55pm
Bills Trade LT Cordy Glenn, 1st round pick (#21), and 5th round pick (#158) to Bengals for 1st round pick (#12) and 6th round pick (#187)
Bills: B-. Buffalo handed Glenn a five year, $60M deal before the 2016 season, securing their left tackle for the long haul. Glenn produced a strong 82.8 PFF grade that year, but he did miss five games due to injury. 2017 was an unmitigated disaster with Glenn playing just 275 snaps to the tune of a below-average 68.1 grade. With a looming $8.5M guarantee in the coming week, Buffalo had a choice to make: keep Glenn and hope for the best, or move on from home, eating $9.6M in dead cap space attributable to his signing bonus. By trading Tyrod Taylor this week, the Bills seem to have announced their intention to rebuild the offense, seemingly committing themselves to punting Glenn. This move does leave a $9.6M stinkbomb on their cap sheet, but at least it disappears after this year. Incredibly, for their troubles, Buffalo acquired net draft capital of 2.5 points (20.1 minus 17.6), equivalent to a mid 5th round pick. The Glenn contract aged terribly and quickly so, but Buffalo made the best of a bad situation in this deal.
Bengals: C-. Despite preferring this deal for Buffalo, it's not a disaster for Cincinnati. By virtue of leaving Glenn's signing bonus in Buffalo, the Bengals get Glenn on a one year, $11.25M deal. If he flops, they have no dead money going forward. If Glenn does return to form, they control him for $9.25M in 2019 and $9.5M in 2020, both years at well under market rates. It's a good risk to take. I don't love that Cincinnati had to give away some draft capital to take the risk, but it's certainly justifiable.
Buccaneers Re-Sign TE Cameron Brate for 6 years, $41M ($18M guaranteed)
Buccaneers: D+. This is the first case this offseason where I really like the player (80.0 PFF) but the contract is so onerous as to sour the deal. Much has been made of Brate's red zone prowess and understandably so: he's a big target and Jameis Winston likes throwing him the deal. On the other hand...
- Tampa Bay just invested a first-round pick in O.J. Howard, whose usage kicked up notably in the second half;
- Brate was an undrafted rookie;
- Brate will be 27 in 2018, so he's not exactly the youngest free agent; and
- Brate's snap rate actually decreased in the second half of the season: he played 57.6% of Tampa's snaps in the first half but just 49.6% in the second half.
I'm perplexed. This is a huge deal for a good player but it could look really ugly by November, even on a team where two tight end sets are common.
Ravens Re-Sign LG James Hurst for 4 years, $17.5M ($8M guaranteed)
Ravens: D-. What? Huh? Hurst was a sub-replacement level player in 2017 (42.4 PFF) while playing all 1,085 Baltimore snaps. He'll be just 26 next year, but that type of grade doesn't happen by accident. I have no idea what the Ravens are thinking. This is probably a glorified two-year deal, not just a one-year deal, so they get dinged a little extra for that, even if the deal doesn't feature big-time money.
Seahawks Re-Sign S Bradley McDougald for 3 years, $13.95M ($5.5M guaranteed)
Seahawks: C+. I'm grading this deal as if its a glorified one-year deal for McDougald. He worked out beautifully as a cheap signing last year, filling in for Kam Chancellor. With Chancellor's career looking wobbly, bringing back the 27-year-old who performed well (77.3 PFF) on a modest deal makes sense, even if he ultimately gets kicked to the bench. It's possible that 2017 was a mirage, but this contract is unlikely to lock Seattle into a long-term agreement.
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Sunday March 11 @ 9:48pm
Chargers Extend CB Casey Heyward for 3 years, $36M ($20M guaranteed)
Chargers: B. Normally I pillory teams for doing early extensions in football. There's so much risk for injury or quality slippage and there's no competitive market for a player under contract, especially when the franchise tag is in play for the following year. So how does this get a "B?" Simple: Heyward is PFF's #1 corner (96.4), and this extension covers his ages 29-31 seasons. That's a perfectly reasonable time period to cover and the Chargers got a notable discount by doing the extension early. Put it all together and this looks fine to me, even with the risk that Heyward could go belly up this year and leave
49ers Sign CB Richard Sherman for 3 years, $39M (~$18M guaranteed)
49ers: B-. This is a good move in my eyes. Sherman (30, 82.7 PFF) fell off a bit from his elite status last year, but it's fair to wonder how much of that was due to Achilles injuries that required surgery on both feet. He's expected to be ready for camp, so taking the optimistic view, this would be an A- or so. Taking the pessimistic view, it's probably a C. Thus, split the difference. (UPDATE: I guessed on the guarantee when writing this up. Turns out that only the $3M signing bonus is guaranteed, but functionally, $8.175M is guaranteed. Nevertheless, that's a paltry guarantee for a player of Sherman's caliber. Let's kick this up to a B for the Niners.)
Browns Trade DT Danny Shelton and 5th round pick (#158) to Patriots for 2019 3rd round pick
Browns: F. This feels like a broken record. What in the world are the Browns doing? Shelton is a 25-year-old above-average (81.5 PFF) defensive lineman on his rookie deal and with his fifth-year option available. Sure, he's primarily a two-down player who lacks pass rushing prowess, but young, stud lineman are among the most valuable commodity in the sport. The Browns shipped him out for moving up about 60 spots in the draft. Assuming that the Patriots get the 95th pick (a safe bet given their last two decades of football), the Browns pick up the equivalent of the 138th pick worth of value, an early fifth rounder. In what world does that make sense? The fact that Larry Ogunjobi excelled as a rookie doesn't change Shelton's value in the marketplace.
Patriots: A. For all of the reasons stated above.
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Friday March 9 @ 9:49pm
Browns Trade QB DeShone Kizer, 4th round pick (#101), and 5th round pick (#138) to Packers for CB Damarious Randall, 4th round pick (#114), and 5th round pick (#150)
Browns: D-. I get that the Browns were moving on from Kizer between Tyrod Taylor and their future draftee. But good grief, what a price to unload him. Randall was barely average (70.9 PFF) in his third season in 2017. I have a tough time imagining that a 26-year-old cornerback with average production would garner more than $3M on the open market, so he does offer a hair of value at $1.5M on a one-year deal. Is that enough for Kizer? No way (see below). To make matters worse, the value of the Browns picks (8.4 points) exceeds the value of the Packers picks (7.1 points) by the equivalent of an early sixth-round pick. Why did Cleveland send extra value to Green Bay to get this deal done? They must really love Randall. That seems unwise.
Packers: A. The rich get richer. Kizer was my top quarterback for much of the 2017 pre-draft process, and while he slipped to the 52nd overall pick, he gained lots of gametime experience as a rookie and he just turned 22 in January. There's plenty to work with there, even if his ceiling is as a borderline starter. Getting the picks on top is a tremendous bonus, one that I fail to understand the reasoning behind.
Browns Trade 3rd round pick (#65) to Bills for QB Tyrod Taylor
Browns: F. Acquiring all of those extra draft picks only works if you use them efficiently. Using the 65th overall pick -- a highly valuable selection -- to acquire a player overwhelmingly likely to be available in the coming weeks/months for cash only is a terrible move. I happen to like Taylor (83.0 PFF) plenty and think he represents a nice bridge QB for the Browns, who appear overwhelmingly likely to draft a quarterback with a top-four pick in April. But they just threw away a tasty draft pick.
Bills: A+. This will be the deal of the spring. The Bills had telegraphed their hand on Taylor for months, benching him in favor of subpar rookie Nathan Peterman despite being in the midst of a playoff push. Furthermore, Taylor had no guaranteed money on his deal for 2018 and would have left no dead money on the Buffalo cap had they released him. Instead of releasing him, the Bills scored the top pick in the third round. Brilliant.
Browns Trade 4th round pick (#123) and 2019 7th round pick to Dolphins for WR Jarvis Landry
Browns: C. Despite preferring this deal for Miami, this isn't a bad move from the Browns. They've regularly had a hard time attracting free agents, so using a mid-round pick to gain meaningful control of an above-average 25-year-old makes sense. I'll like it better for them provided that they're able to secure Landry (82.0 PFF) on a long-term deal, further minimizing the cost of the pick.
Dolphins: B. The Dolphins handled the Landry situation beautifully: they got something (a couple of picks, one of which is nothing to sneeze at) for nothing (a player that they weren't going to keep). I also like that they decided to avoid going to the top of the market for a slow-footed slot receiver, even if he routinely catches a bunch of passes.
Buccaneers Extend WR Mike Evans for 5 years, $82.5M ($55M guaranteed)
Buccaneers: D. The reporting on this deal is tricky, but it seems as though this deal is an extension to follow Evans' fifth-year option in 2018. Put together, that'd make the deal $96M over six years with about $68M guaranteed. Needless to say, there's no discount there. The Bucs could've used the option year and the franchise tag to hang onto Evans for about $30M over the next two seasons, valuable evaluation time in which they could have determined whether the club's struggles in 2017 were an aberration or a sign of things to come. I don't like accelerating guarantees like this (but kudos to Evans and his agent).
Raiders Extend NT Justin Ellis for 3 years, $15M ($6M guaranteed)
Raiders: C+. It's a solid move. Ellis is an average or slightly above-average run plugger (80.6 PFF), he's in his prime at 27, and run defense doesn't grow on trees. He doesn't provide amazing value here, but it's a slightly above-average deal.
Panthers Trade CB Daryl Worley to Eagles for WR Torrey Smith
Eagles: A. It doesn't get much better than this. Worley isn't much right now, but he was the 77th pick in the 2016 draft and has some game experience under his belt. Smith, on the other hand, is nothing at this point in his career. Trading nothing for something is a great deal...and it's an even better one when the something is cheaper.
Panthers: F. Likewise, it doesn't get worse than this.
Rams Trade 5th round pick (#160) to Broncos for CB Aqib Talib
Rams: B+. This deal is not without risk for the Rams: Talib is a 32-year-old cornerback and corners often fall off a cliff at some point in their early 30s. That said, Talib is about as good of a risk as a team can take, coming off of a marvelous year (86.2 PFF) preceded by a decade of stellar play. Talib brings the added bonus of cost savings for the Rams: he's a better player than Trumaine Johnson and comes for $11M in 2018 and $8M in 2019 with no guaranteed money in either year. Splendid.
Broncos: C. The Broncos are paying their bills for extended so much of their Super Bowl core. Given the options, Talib is probably the right guy to move. Not ideal, but understandable.
Rams Trade ILB Alec Ogletree and 2019 7th round pick to Giants for a 4th round pick (#135) and 6th round pick (#176)
Rams: B+. The Rams took a justifiable risk on Alec Ogletree, signing him to a gaudy extension early in the 2017 season that functionally locked the team in to Ogletree's $10M 2018 cap number while keeping his cap hits from 2019 onward clean. Had the former first-round pick shined in Wade Phillips' new 3-4 defense, the move would've looked shrewd. Instead, he busted, and the Rams were on the hook for a gnarly deal. Instead, the Giants came calling and the Rams recouped same of the draft capital that they spent in remaking their secondary while shedding an unwanted deal at a time when big money needs to be made available for Aaron Donald and Marcus Peters. Nice.
Giants: D+. I'm not a fan of this deal from the Giants' perspective, but I'm also not going to kill them here. Ogletree comes with a first round pedigree and he has produced in the NFL in a 4-3, albeit only in his rookie season. The cost here is too high -- ILBs aren't making this much in free agency, there's plenty of risk that Ogletree doesn't work out, and the draft capital is surprisingly hefty. The downside risk on the back end is low -- Ogletree has no dead money as of 2019 -- but I still can't love this move.
Rams Trade 4th round pick (#124) and 2019 2nd round pick to Chiefs for CB Marcus Peters and 6th round pick (#196)
Rams: A-. Dang. It's tough to find a young, premium player like Peters (25, 85.7 PFF) period, let alone this cheaply. Peters has a reputation for causing some headaches, but at this price point, it's worth a shot for sure. A fun nugget: the Rams hold picks 194, 195, and 196 in the sixth round. Ha!
Chiefs: C-. This isn't exactly a nightmare haul for Peters, but the Chiefs traded Peters on a 2-year, $11M contract (provided that his fifty year option is exercised). They had to be expecting a first rounder in return. They're going to need to find a way to replace the premium outside talent, even if they find the move to be some addition by subtraction in the locker room.
Seahawks Trade DE Michael Bennett and 7th round pick (#248 - could be #226 or #250 instead) to Eagles for 5th round pick (#156 - could be #169 instead) and WR Marcus Johnson
Seahawks: D+. This simply isn't good value for Bennett (32, 80.6 PFF). Even if the Seahawks expect Bennett to falter in the coming year or years, his contract is extremely team friendly (early-year roster bonuses but no guaranteed money remaining) and his production suggests that he should have been worth at least a fourth rounder. And that's before we add in positional scarcity. There's just not much on the market this spring in terms of quality edge players. Bennett should've brought more.
Eagles: B+. This is a strong move for the Eagles. At the same time, nothing happens in a vacuum and $6.65M for Bennett is going to be tricky given that Philadelphia is nearly $10M over the cap already. Still: get the talent, then figure out how it all fits.
Bills Sign RB Chris Ivory for 2 years, $5.5M ($3.5M guaranteed)
Bills: F. This isn't tough, guys. Ivory is 30 and he was one of the NFL's worst backs in 2017 (50.4 PFF) after being one of the NFL's worst backs in 2016 (54.2 PFF). How is there any guaranteed money in his deal?
Rams Trade DE Robert Quinn and 6th round pick (#198) to Dolphins for 4th round pick (#111) and 6th round pick (#183)
Rams: A. This would've been at least a "B" had the Rams and Dolphins only flipped sixth rounders. Nabbing a fourth rounder for Quinn is remarkable. After an explosive start to his career (98.8 PFF in 2013!), Quinn has fallen apart in recent years, posting a poor 60.6 PFF in 2016 and then an even worse 58.1 in 2017 in a 3-4. Moving back to a 4-3 might help Quinn, but the Rams weren't changing their defense and his $11.4M cap figure is laughable for them. Getting a real asset in return is a coup.
Dolphins: D. There's something to be said for taking a gamble. There's nothing to be said for paying so much for the chance to take that gamble. This is an overpayment, plain as day.
Bills Sign CB Vontae Davis for 1 year, $5M ($3.5M guaranteed)
Bills: F. Again, Buffalo, what are you doing? There's no sense in paying such a premium to take a flyer on a 30-year-old corner coming off of a dreadful season (45.2 PFF). The miserable Colts parted with Davis after his awful 2016 (47.3 PFF). Why is Buffalo paying so much and paying so much for a possible headache at that?
Chiefs Trade QB Alex Smith to Redskins for 3rd round pick (#78) and CB Kendall Fuller
Chiefs: C. The Chiefs acquired two assets for Smith: a mid-third rounder and Kendall Fuller (23, 90.0 PFF!) on a 2-year, $1.4M deal. That looks incredible. But then, (i) the quarterback market is always bizarre, and (ii) Smith has reached near-elite levels despite his advanced age (34, 87.2 PFF). Obviously Kansas City was comfortable moving on from Smith with Patrick Mahomes in house, but I'm not a Mahomes fan and Smith has grown into the force that the Chiefs hoped he would be. Taken together, I like the pieces that they brought back and they avoid paying a QB until he's 37, but it's tough to love a deal where a franchise QB goes out the door.
Redskins: D-. The Smith contract is plenty reasonable (4 years, $94M with $71M guaranteed), and there's plenty of reason to believe that he'll be plenty competent for Washington. The problem, of course, is that Washington had a younger and cheaper (if slightly less effective) version of Smith in house already in the form of Kirk Cousins (30, 78.8 PFF). All they had to do was sign him to a reasonable extension at some point in the past three years...and they screwed it up. The cost to the franchise is overwhelming: a quality draft pick, a star corner on a rookie deal, and a bigger chunk of cap space than it would have required to keep Cousins even a year ago. Furthermore, as recently as 2016, Cousins (83.9 PFF) graded higher than Smith (76.8 PFF) by about the same split as they had in 2017. Both are above-average, non-elite QBs. Washington really screwed this one up.
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