Back in December, I examined the Bears roster as it heads toward a critical year for Ryan Pace in 2018 (that post also contains a position-by-position look at roster needs, though it doesn't fully capture the recent string of cuts by Pace). With new coach Matt Nagy in house, Pace now has full control of the football operations to mold them in his image.
Free agency presents a key opportunity to add a difference maker or two to the roster as Pace searches for a path ahead as a contender. I won't rehash the entirety of that December article here, but suffice it to say, the Bears (1) have oodles of cap space, and (2) need to find a couple of long-term pieces in free agency, not mere patches. Pace attempted to do so with stud cornerback AJ Bouye last March, but despite outbidding the market for Bouye's services, the young defender wisely took a slightly lesser payday to join a contender in Jacksonville. Pace simply cannot whiff again this year. He has to find a few more Danny Trevathans, even at the risk of finding a few more Marcus Coopers along the way.
Speaking of Cooper, this look into free agency will include the final trimming of dead weight from the roster.
Here's a look at what I'd like to see from Pace consider over the next couple of weeks as he reshapes the roster. Not all of these moves will happen, and in fact, their likelihood decreases over the course of the article.
The Softies
These moves are easy, though none of them move the needle much in terms of expected wins or cap space spent.
1. Cut CB Marcus Cooper, WR Markus Wheaton, TE Dion Sims, and C Hroniss Grasu. Cooper is a no-brainer: he was a flop at corner, playing his way out of the rotation even when starters were injured, earning one of the lowest grades for a corner in the NFL (42.5 from PFF), and ignominously costing the team a regulation win over Pittsburgh by prancing toward the endzone, turning a touchdown into a fumble. Wheaton is a no-brainer, too: he caught three balls last year and graded as one of the worst receivers in the league (47.2). Grasu should also be a no-brainer, though it may be tough for Pace to pull the plug on the 71st pick in the 2015 draft, especially when Grasu's cap savings are so small ($0.7995K) compared to the likes of Cooper ($4.5M) and Wheaton ($5M). Still, a 31.5 grade from PFF is mind boggling. I have lots of bias in favor of Sims having watched him develop in high school and college, but his cap savings ($5.667M) far outpaces the value of taking an additional flyer on him. If the Bears can renegotiate his base salary from $6M to something south of $2M, fine, take another shot. But absent such a renegotiation, it should be curtains for him, too (44.4 from PFF).
***Following these cuts, the Bears would have a dead cap amount of $12,049,192. With $1.4M allotted to the practice squad, $7,557,070 allotted to their seven-pick draft pool, and $81,401,778 allotted to active roster spots between current players and cap holds, the Bears would have allocated $102,408,040 of their 2018 cap. Between the estimated 2018 cap and their rollover of unused space from 2017, the Bears' 2018 cap figure is expected to be approximately $184,683,039, yielding space of approximately $82.275M. Even leaving $10M+ for in-season moves and unexpected cuts, the Bears can safely spend around $70M against their 2018 cap.
2. Extend Second-Round Tender Offers to WR Cameron Meredith and CB Bryce Callahan, and Tender Exclusive Rights Free Agent S DeAndre Houston-Carson. Meredith (25 - 74.5 in 2016) and Callahan (26 - 82.9 from PFF) were both undrafted rookies who became productive restricted free agents. The second round tender amount figures to come in around $2.8M. That's a relatively meager sum for either of these players and it takes away the risk that the original round tender carries (namely, if some other team really likes one of these players, the Bears are left with no compensation draft pick if the player bolts). At two positions of extreme need, the Bears can ill-afford to take chances. Houston-Carson (25 - 53.5 from PFF in limited snaps) provides depth while the team sees if he has grown at all.
3. Sign DE Mitch Unrein to a two-year, $5M deal with $2.5M guaranteed. After floundering on the roster for a year or so, Unrein really emerged as a force last season, earning an eye-popping 83.9 grade from PFF. Working against him: Unrein is a 31-year-old who didn't earn consistent snaps until he was 28 and has never held a full-time gig. For a $1M signing bonus, a $500K Y1 roster bonus, and a $1M Y1 base salary, I think he stays. Further, bringing back Unrein for a part-time job makes lots of sense for the Bears as they see if Jonathan Bullard can take the next step after an encouraging 2017.
4. Sign K Caleb Sturgis to a one-year deal. I won't estimate the dollars for Sturgis coming off of an injury that cost him 95 percent of the 2017 season. I'll just note that he's above replacement level, a marked improvement.
5. Re-sign P Pat O'Donnell to a four-year deal. O'Donnell has acquitted himself well with the Bears, though he shouldn't be resetting the punting market in free agency. Something like $10M over four years should be fine.
6. Re-sign RB Benny Cunningham to a one-year deal. Cunningham (28 - 57.2 from PFF) is a perfect fit in the running back room as a third/fourth option who contributes regularly on special teams. He's cheap and reliable (unless he's diving for a pylon).
7. Don't Tender ILB John Timu, but Re-Sign him to a one-year deal. Timu (26) surprisingly graded well at PFF in his limited role last year (74.7), and as NFL defenses transition to a pass-first scheme, investing heavily in another inside linebacker doesn't make much sense with Trevathan and Nick Kwiatkoski both playing well. Timu is a run-first defender, so he's limited in his role. I bet that the Bears could get him back for less than the original round tender of $1.8M. Let's say $1M and a roster spot does it with $250K guaranteed.
The Low-Risk, High-Rewards
This section includes a group of players that, for one reason or another, come with above-average risk profiles but could blossom into difference makers for the Bears.
8. Sign OLB Alex Okafor OR OLB Trent Murphy to a four-year deal with $9M guaranteed (but really a glorified one-year deal). Okafor is one of very few viable every down edge defenders in this free agent class. He enjoyed a splendid season with the Saints prior to tearing his Achilles in November. At 27, he should have plenty in the tank provided that his rehab progresses smoothly (84.7 PFF). Murphy (27) is in a similar boat having torn both his ACL and MCL in August after continually improving his PFF grade from average to above-average scores to start his career (81.7 in 2016). Having the injury occur so early in the year should give Murphy a full shot at training camp. Both players would need a decent payday to vacate preferable situations with their previous teams, but the Bears are well-positioned to use dollars to attract either in order to add a desperately needed starting-caliber edge rusher. Dee Ford could also fit in this bucket, but he seems destined to stay in Kansas City despite a 2017 back injury that sapped his effectiveness this year. For either player, a hefty Y1 roster bonus with a similarly hefty non-guaranteed Y2 roster bonus paid early in the league year should work. Let's say a $2M signing bonus and a $5M Y1 roster bonus.
9. Sign WR Sammy Watkins to a four-year, $40M deal with $12M guaranteed (but really a glorified one-year deal). I thought that Buffalo's trade for Watkins in the 2014 draft was one of the worst moves I'd ever seen, but that doesn't change the fact that Watkins, 25, is still dripping with talent (76.2 PFF). He lacks the frame of a traditional go-to receiver, but he'd give Mitch Trubisky an excellent security blanket with good hands, deep speed, and actual production. Again, he's just 25 and dripping with talent. Would Watkins go for a hoard of Y1 cash? I think so: $4M signing bonus, $6M Y1 roster bonus, and a $2M base salary.
10. Sign WR Albert Wilson to a three-year, $12M deal with $4M guaranteed (but really a glorified one-year deal). Wilson to the Bears isn't even a poorly kept secret anymore because, well, it's barely a secret anymore. When asked if he hoped to retain Wilson, Chiefs GM Brett Veach replied, "Well, Matt's in Chicago," referring to Coach Nagy. It's quite possible that the only issue to square away here is the financial guarantee. Wilson was an undrafted free agent out of Georgia State and comes with a diminutive frame at 5'9", but his average grade (77.7) and age (25) make him a valuable commodity for the Bears as they rebuild the wide receiver room. For a $1M signing bonus, a $2M Y1 roster bonus, and a $1M base salary, I bet that Wilson would jump to Chicago.
The High-Risk, High-Rewards
This group includes the real draws of a free agency preview: the players who figure to get multi-year guarantees with big money attached. These are the players likely to make or break a team's record and cap sheet in the coming years.
11. Sign RT Ja'Wuan James to a five-year, $40M deal with $20M guaranteed (but really a glorified two-year deal) and Release RT Bobby Massie...but only if this is accomplished immediately. Massie leaves just $500K of dead money on the Bears' cap if he is released before the third day of the league year when he has a $1M roster bonus due. Massie is a below-average tackle, even after his massive improvment in the last 25 games or so. If the Bears can snag James, possibly set to hit free agency at 26 with a top pedigree and an above-average grade from PFF (80.0) due to Miami's salary cap woes, to man the right side, it's a clear upgrade with a long-term piece and one that isn't likely to cost much in terms of cash or cap space. A $5M signing bonus, guaranteed roster bonuses of $5M in Y1 and $3M in Y2, and base salaries of $2M in Y1 and $5M in Y2 should get it done. The last three years are gravy, but if James continues to produce, he'd be a bargain at that point.
12. Sign TE Trey Burton to a four-year, $24M deal with $11M guaranteed (but really a glorified two-year deal). Burton is what Sims was supposed to be: a younger, up-and-coming tight end who helps solidify the position. With the Bears targeting a run-heavy attack, having multiple playable tight ends is a must. Sims was a massive disappointment in Y1 of his deal, and given his history as an undrafted free agent and a part-time player, the Bears should be able to slide Burton into Sims' cap slot with ease. At 26 and coming off of a solid 75.6 PFF season, Burton would bring that much-needed additional big-bodied receiving target who can block. A $2M signing bonus, a $2M Y1 roster bonus, a $2M Y1 salary, and a guaranteed $5M in Y2 works. Annual salaries of $6M and $7M in Y3 and Y4, respectively, all make sense. The Bears could also consider taking a run at Buccaneers restricted free agent Cameron Brate, a huge red zone target coming off of a grade 80.0 season and still only 27, but I suspect Tampa Bay will match a Brate offer when forced to decide.
13. Sign CB Aaron Colvin to a five-year, $40M deal with $16M guaranteed (but really a glorified two-year deal). This one is a no-brainer to me. Colvin was a first-round talent who slipped to the fourth round in 2014 after tearing his ACL at the Senior Bowl. Colvin has proved to be an invaluable slot cornerback, and in 2018, that position is as valuable as an inside linebacker. He's likely to get squeezed out in Jacksonville due to a looming cap crunch, and the Bears should pounce. Colvin has a real shot to be next year's A.J. Bouye as a 26-year-old coming off of a strong season (80.0) ready to take another step. It's true that Colvin and Callahan likely occupy the same spot on the field, but having too many quality defensive backs never hurt anyone. I bet he'd be able to command a heftier signing bonus than most, so let's say a $5M signing bonus, a $4M Y1 roster bonus, $2M Y1 salary, and $4M Y2 salary are all guaranteed with annual salaries kicking up thereafter.
14. Sign CB Kyle Fuller to a five-year, $60M deal with $30M guaranteed (but really a glorified three-year deal). This is the big one. Fuller played well as a rookie, OK as a sophomore, not at all as a junior, and splendidly in his contract year in 2017. Fuller played like a top-of-the-market with a sterling 84.3 grade, and he'll be just 26 in 2018. It wasn't the smoothest process that got him to this point, but he's here. His final amount and guarantee should accordingly fall short of the elite recent free agents like Stephon Gilmore and Xavier Rhodes, but not by a ton. The $30M guarantee would be comprised of a $10M signing bonus, a $6M Y1 roster bonus, and guaranteed salaries of $5M in Y1 and $8M in Y2 with a $1M partial guarantee in Y3. Base salaries of $9M, $10M, and $12M over the last three years complete the deal.
***I'm going to stop here because, well, I like this roster a lot. There are numerous other players worth pursuing who I'll deteail below, but for now, here's the roster that the Bears would possess heading into the draft:
QB: Trubisky, ?????
RB: Howard, Cohen, Cunningham, Mizzell, Burton
WR: Watkins, Meredith, Wilson, White, ?????
TE: Burton, Shaheen, ?????, ?????
OT: James, Leno, ?????
OG: Long, Kush, Morgan
C: Whitehair, ?????
NT: Goldman, ?????
DE: Hicks, Bullard, Unrein, Robertson-Harris, ?????
ILB: Trevathan, Kwiatkoski, Timu, ?????
OLB: Okafor, Floyd, ?????, ?????
CB: Fuller, Colvin, Callahan, LeBlanc, Hall, ?????
S: Amos, Jackson, Bush, Houston-Carson, ?????
SP: Sturgis, O'Donnell, ?????
Is that roster perfect? Of course not. Does it still desperately need a playmaker at OLB? Absolutely. Is the wide receiver group elite? No way! Should you be concerned about the lack of quarterback depth? Sure, go for it!
On the whole, however, I like the look of the group. The Bears add a couple of capable starting wide receivers, a pass rusher, a new body to the cornerback group, and otherwise focus on keeping the defense strong and the quarterback upright. Most importantly, the signings give the Bears control over a slew of free agents in their mid-20s, buying upside in future years as the team grows without locking in unsightly deals. The moves suggested above use $58.578M of net cap space, leaving room for an additional impact signing without crossing the $70M threshold and leaving even more room from the full cap.
I've believed for months that the Bears will work to shore up the receiving group via free agency and entrust the pass rushing influx to their draft class. Tremaine Edmunds, Bradley Chubb, or Arden Key would seem to fit the bill.
Finally, here's the quick-hitting part of the exercise: other players of note by position throughout the roster:
QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick (35 - 73.2 from PFF) and Mark Sanchez (31) both seem like viable backup candidates. There's also plenty of sense in spending a mid-to-late-round pick on a project much like Washington did when they added Kirk Cousins to the fold in the fourth round after spending a bounty of Robert Griffin III. Obviously it's Trubisky or bust at QB, so I wouldn't expect major assets to be allocated to his backup.
WR: There are numerous options here, but the most attractive possibility in my book is Allen Robinson (25). Like Sims, I'm biased having watching Robinson in high school and cheered for him at Penn State, but there's little denying that he'd immediately become the team's best receiver if he came aboard. He is coming off of a knee injury that cost him all of 2017 -- save for three snaps -- but he's worth the risk. Taking a one-year shot on Terrelle Pryor (29) could make sense (43.1 PFF), as could targeting a trio of younger receivers with limited upside and some injury woes who nevertheless are of starting caliber: T.J. Jones (26 - 77.5 PFF), Marqise Lee (26 - 77.1 PFF), and Paul Richardson (26 - 72.4 PFF). A reunion with Kendall Wright (28 - 76.3 PFF) wouldn't be out of the question.
TE: The tight end crop is thin, hence attacking Burton above and mentioning Brate at the same time. I suppose that taking a shot at Jimmy Graham (31 - 54.1 PFF) could work, but he certainly doesn't fit the long-term angle.
OG: This is a spot where the team could make some noise, especially if they elect to stick with Massie at RT instead of going after James. Justin Pugh (28) had a nightmarish season in 2017 after being forced into service at RT (52.4 PFF), but his pedigree at LG is strong and he figures to have plenty of good years left (83.2 in 2016). I'm less excited about setting the top of the market with Andrew Norwell (26 - 88.8 PFF!) only because I don't like setting the market. Norwell would be a tremendous addition to any line.
DE: There are three really attractive options here that I didn't mention above. Former Jet Sheldon Richardson (27 - 83.3 PFF) really shined in Seattle, and he'd make the line much more ferocious than Bullard and Unrein, especially in passing situations. More recent former Jet Muhammad Wilkerson (28 - 79.8 PFF) really mailed it in after inking his massive extension, but there's no denying that the skill remains. He'd be a tremendous flyer on a prove-it deal, especially if Ryan Pace could attach a team option to it. Finally, former Nittany lineman DaQuan Jones (26 - 80.6 PFF) has grown into a nice two-way player on the line, though he's coming off of biceps surgery and may need some time to recover.
ILB: Given the need for defensive backs and outside linebackers, the abilities of Trevathan and Kwiatkoski, and the likely ability to bring Timu back at a modest cost, this position is unlikely to be addressed in a meaningful way. Nevertheless, NaVorro Bowman (30 - 84.8 PFF) has been ravaged by injuries but he remains a star level player when healthy. He also grew up in Vic Fangio's defense, and yes, I'm biased in his favor after his stellar career in blue and white. The Jets' Demario Davis (29) came out of nowhere to produce a strong season in 2017 (87.3 PFF), but he's probably looking for a bigger payday than the Bears can justify.
OLB: This is a real weak spot in free agency. Kony Ealy (26 - 74.6 PFF) had to fight for a roster spot in 2017, but he turned in a strong season that has folks rethinking his career. Seattle's Dion Jordan (28) was one of the more epic draft busts in recent memory, but he shined in a limited role last year (83.6). He could be worth a look. Atlanta's Adrian Clayborn (30) is too old and he's going to get paid for one game in which he racked up six sacks when Dallas refused to figure out what to do in Tyron Smith's absence (85.5 PFF though).
CB: Finally, we reach the juiciest spot. The cornerback marketplace is littered with starting-caliber options, a welcome sight for a Bears team in desperate need of multiple starters. Trumaine Johnson (28) has long been a favorite of mine, but after back-to-back seasons subject to the franchise tag, he'll hit free agency coming off of a down year for him (74.2 per PFF). Still, he's young enough and big enough to be an impact addition. The Bears' own Prince Amukamara (28) acquitted himself nicely in his lone season in Chicago (81.2), though he's older than the other targets on this list with more mileage on his body and a lengthier injury history. Darqueze Dennard (26) took some time to adjust to the NFL, but he reached a peak in 2017 (82.8), suggesting that he has made the adjustment (EDIT 3/9/18 @ 2:57pm: at the time of writing, reports indicated that the Bengals planned to rescind their fifth-year option on Dennard, making him a free agent. That appears to be inaccurate as he appears likely to stick in Cincinnati. Cross him off the list.). Malcolm Butler (28) infamously found himself on the Patriots bench during the Super Bowl while Nick Foles torched his team, but it wasn't because Butler struggled this year. On the contrary, he enjoyed another strong season (79.2). The last three options all come with quite different career paths. Oakland's T.J. Carrie (28) shined in 2017, posting an excellent season (84.3) as others struggled around him. His resume is light, however. Ross Cockrell (27) was similarly successful (81.6) but he was available for a conditional seventh-round pick as recently as eight months ago. Bizarre. Finally, Nickell Robey-Coleman (26) was the beneficiary of some extra playing time in the Rams' secondary and he excelled (84.9) given his opportunity. However, his resume is imperfect: an undrafted free agent, Robey-Coleman was solid in 2014, awful in 2015, strong in the slot in 2016, and superb in 2017. At 5'8", 165, it's possible that Robey-Coleman's size limitations scare away interested teams.
To close out the piece, there's one big name on the market that was suspiciously absent in this piece thus far: Dolphins' WR Jarvis Landry. Trading for Landry, just 25 and coming off of an 82.0 graded season, is fine provided that the Bears don't give up a terribly meaningful pick in order to give him a top-of-the-market extension. If they blow a quality pick and a serious chunk of cap space, well....just don't. This is a team that remains short on assets, so using valuable draft and financial capital on one player doesn't work.
(UPDATE 3/9/18 @ 9:08am: If Ndamukong Suh actually gets released by the Dolphins, Pace should lose his mind trying to get Suh to Chicago. He's a game-changing force in any defense, and though he has spent his entire career in a 4-3, I have no doubt that he'd be a force as a 3-4 DE. He's one of the truly elite linemen in the league and the Bears have plenty of cash and cap space to lure him back north.)
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