Friday, April 28, 2023

Bears Thoughts in Advance of Day Two of the 2023 NFL Draft

I'm pleased with what the Bears did in the first round. But as with anything in life, there's more to it than that. So here goes:

  1. Admittedly, I hoped that the Bears would acquire significantly more draft capital if they traded down from #9, but to be fair, I didn't envision the trade only sliding back one spot. An extra 2024 4th from a Super Bowl contender is technically something.
  2. Not drafting Jalen Carter makes plenty of sense at this point. I'm sure that we'll hear in the coming years that the Bears took Carter off of their board entirely, hence the smokescreens in recent days that Carter would be the pick at #9 if he made it.
  3. I'm happy that Peter Skoronski wasn't the pick. He was a great college player, but the value proposition for a G simply isn't there in the top-10.
  4. Darnell Wright is a premium athlete at a premium spot that fills a massive need. That's good. It's not a perfect outcome, but it's very good.
  5. Carter-Wright-Skoronski will be inextricably linked when fans evaluate this Bears draft class. Carter was the one chance for a plug-and-play 3 tech DT. With him off to Philly, the Bears defense has a low ceiling in 2023. Skoronski was the can't miss local kid. But the Bears went with Wright, eschewing those two. We'll see how it looks when they approach free agency near the end of the decade.

With the first round all wrapped up, I ran a Day Two mock draft for the Bears today. This draft was run with Pro Football Network's mock draft simulator. All accepted trades were reviewed for reasonableness.

To say that this represents a best-case scenario understates just how ideal this outcome would be.

Here goes:

Bears trade #53 to Tampa Bay for #81, #82, and #196
All of my favorite DEs and my top two Cs were gone, so...trade down!

#61: Bears select Auburn DE Derick Hall
Hall isn't a prototype, but he possesses plenty of the necessary characteristics to be a plus starter in the future and a day one contributor. That'll work.

Bears trade #64 to Houston for #65, #259, and a 2024 5th

#65: Bears select Florida DT Gervon Dexter
I love so many of the players available in this range. But Dexter is the perfect combination of fit and roster need. A starting-caliber DT is absolutely essential for this roster and the depth options in the draft won't likely get the job done. I think that Dexter can be at least a serviceable 3 tech to start his career.

#81: Bears select Wisconsin DT Keeanu Benton
There's no way Benton will last this long...but if he does, wow! I had a very difficult time choosing between Dexter and Benton, so getting both really changes the feel of this class.

#82: Bears select Iowa TE Sam LaPorta
LaPorta could be a mid-2nd or he could last until the end of day two. This would be a wonderful spot for the Bears to add my favorite TE.

#103: Bears select Ohio State DE Zach Harrison
Harrison never emerged as the star many expected him to be at Ohio State, but there's plenty to work with here.

#133: Bears select Illinois RB Chase Brown
If this pick comes down to Brown v. Tulane's Tyjae Spears, the Bears will be very happy with the outcome. I went with Brown.

#136: Bears select Purdue CB Corey Trice Jr.
I like Trice and he's a perfect addition to the roster at this spot. I don't think he's necessarily a starter from the get-go, but he has good tape and a stellar Combine. Extreme length plays well in this defense.

#148: Bears select Purdue WR Charlie Jones
This is a good spot for a receiver given the construction of the Bears roster. Jones is my favorite target. He's incredibly quick, plenty fast, and was insanely productive despite his slight frame. He's a security blanket in the making.

#196: Bears select Penn State C Juice Scruggs
Incredible value here. Scruggs and Doug Kramer might leave the Bears a little light at C, but if the club thinks he can start, this would be idyllic timing.

#218: Bears select Duke LB Shaka Heyward
Heyward should be able to make the roster and contribute on special teams. That's the right target here.

#258: Bears select Penn State TE Brenton Strange
Strange is extremely polarizing in draft circles. I loved watching him at Penn State, but never thought he had much of an NFL future. But at 258? Sure!

#259: Bears select Michigan K Jake Moody
Fulfilling the prophecy that I created.

If the Bears completed the simulated draft above, they'd enter 2023 with the following roster, assuming cuts of Jones, Whitehair, and Lucas Patrick:

QB: Justin Fields, P.J. Walker
RB: Khalil Herbert, D'Onta ForemanChase BrownTravis Homer
FBKhari Blasingame
WRDJ Moore, Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, Charlie Jones, Velus Jones Jr., Equanimeous St. Brown
TE: Cole Kmet, Robert TonyanSam LaPorta, Brenton Strange
OT: Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Alex Leatherwood
G: Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, Larry Borom
CJuice Scruggs, Doug Kramer

DEDeMarcus Walker, Derick HallZach HarrisonRasheem Green, Trevis Gipson, Dominique Robinson
DTGervon Dexter, Keeanu BentonAndrew Billings, Donovan Jeter
ILBTremaine Edmunds
OLBT.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Dylan Cole, Shaka Heyward
CB: Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Kindle Vildor, Corey Trice Jr., Josh Blackwell
S: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, Jaylon Jones, Elijah Hicks

ST: Jake Moody, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales 

Adding all four of Hall, Dexter, Benton, and Harrison is such an outrageous haul that I'm still surprised there's any combination of picks ahead of them that enabled the draft to fall that way. But I'll take it!

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