Final Chicago Bears Pre-Draft Thoughts and First Round Prediction

This draft will always be remembered as the one where the Bears -- both current and past -- tanked their way to the #1 overall pick (thanks Lovie!)...which GM Ryan Poles subsequently dealt in a masterful deal for a massive haul of picks and new #1 WR D.J. Moore. How Poles uses the picks will determine the future of the franchise even more than how well Moore meshes with QB Justin Fields.

With the draft set to kick off in a few hours, here are my final thoughts about the Bears' approach this weekend along with one final mock draft.

1. Missing out on a 3 technique DT in free agency really stings. Georgia DT Jalen Carter is the only plug-and-play option at that spot in this draft. His off-the-field concerns are significant; at this point, I suspect that he's either atop the Bears' draft board or off of it entirely. But on the field, he's head-and-shoulders ahead of my other favorite possibilities in Northwestern's Adetomiwa Adebawore (undersized, never played DT), Pitt's Calijah Kancey (undersized, very short arms), and Bowling Green's Karl Brooks (poor competition, played DE, very raw). Signing Javon Hargrave or Dre'Mont Jones would have come with their own risks, but doing so would've opened the door for Poles to wheel and deal more freely tonight. If Carter is on the board at #9, I suspect that he's the pick without another trade.
2. Missing out on RT in free agency is just as perplexing. Not paying Mike McGlinchy at a market-setting rate? Totally fine. Not grabbing someone like Kaleb McGary on a modest, short-term deal? Baffling. Unless Poles really loves Larry Borom or Alex Leatherwood -- and that's doubtful -- he needs to find a starting OT this weekend. Desperation oftentimes yields bad results. I don't like the OT options in this draft after the top three of Ohio State's Paris Johnson Jr., Georgia's Broderick Jones, and Tennessee's Darnell Wright. Syracuse's Matthew Bergeron and BYU's Blake Freeland would be fine, projectable options, but neither inspires confidence starting in Week One.
3. I really like the C position in this draft and that's especially true with Wisconsin's Joe Tippmann, a huge, athletic pivot. I like Minnesota's John Michael Schmitz, though I much prefer Tippmann given the age gap between them. If either is there at #53, they'll get strong consideration. There should be good depth options in the third round (Ohio State's Luke Wypler) and later (Penn State's Juice Scruggs).
4. There's salary cap efficiency with drafting new starters at DT and C. Cutting Justin Jones saves $4.9M against the cap and Cody Whitehair's exodus would save $5.8M. The Bears don't need this cap space, but being efficient with the cap is the way that all quality organizations operate. If Jones is the starting 3 tech, this defense will struggle again despite the strength of its back seven.
5. I've long felt that the Bears need to add two starting DEs, but I no longer think that's the case. In fact, drafting only one DE could be sufficient. Poles added depth nicely adding DeMarcus Walker and Rasheem Green to Trevis Gipson and Dominque Robinson. Adding two DEs would be fine with Green and Gipson both heading to free agency, but adding only one DE would be fine.
6. I really like the depth of this draft at CB, but I don't want to see the Bears draft one of the top CBs in the first round. Oregon's Christian Gonzalez and Illinois' Devon Witherspoon are good prospects -- especially Gonzalez -- but the Eberflus defense doesn't prioritze CB play. They need long CBs who don't necessarily need top-end speed. There are options on that front. My favorite? Miami's Tyrique Stevenson.
7. There are a dozen quality RBs in this draft. There's absolutely no reason to take one before Saturday. I like Chase Brown (Illinois), Tyjae Spears (Tulane), Israel Abanikanda (Pitt - a fast riser in my eyes), Tank Bigsby (Auburn), and Devon Achane (Texas A&M). Do NOT draft Bijan Robinson. If the Bears don't draft a RB at all, that's fine! Or Tulsa's Deneric Prince at the end of the 7th round? Great!
8. The TE spot is unbelievably deep. I figure that Michael Mayer (Notre Dame) and Dalton Kincaid (Utah) both go in the first round. The second round options -- Georgia's Darnell Washington, Oregon State's Luke Musgrave, and Iowa's Sam LaPorta -- are incredibly attractive, too. If one is available at 61/64, I'd love to see him join the Bears. Later options like Tucker Kraft (South Dakota State), Luke Schoonmaker (Michigan), Zack Kuntz (Old Dominion), and Brenton Strange (Penn State) are also very attractive. In particular, if Schoonmaker is available in the fourth or fifth round, he'd be a great pick. I really want one of these TEs on the club.
9. Draft Michigan K Jake Moody. Cut Cairo Santos. Santos is fine, but it's time for the Bears to grab a kicker with a big leg. That's Moody. Hopefully in the seventh.

Here's my final, draft day mock draft for the Bears. This draft was run with Pro Football Network's mock draft simulator. All accepted trades were reviewed for reasonableness. For example, today's first mock featured three excellent trades for the Bears:

    Trade #1: Bears trade #9 to Tennessee for #11 and #72
    Trade #2: Bears trade #11 to New England for #14 and 2024 2nd
    Trade #3: Bears trade #14 and #72 to Washington for #16 and #47

But it's horribly unrealistic to trade down three times to get from #9 to #16. So that doesn't work.

Here goes:

Bears trade #9 to New York Jets for #15 and #43

#15: Bears select Tennessee OT Darnell Wright
I was tempted to trade down again with the Giants, sending #15 and #258 to New York for #25 and #57. But no. The desperate need at OT rears its head. And Wright is an ideal fit, so I kept the pick and made it.

#43: Bears select Pittsburgh DT Calijah Kancey
Kancey is a polarizing prospect. He's very small for a college DT, so he's positively miniscule for an NFL DT. His arms are multiple inches shorter than his nearest comp. But he's unbelievably quick and fast with a power body despite his stature. If he was two inches taller and his arms were two inches longer, he'd be a top-10 pick. At #43, it's worth the risk if he makes it this far.

#53: Bears select Wisconsin C Joe Tippmann
I'm a huge fan of Tippmann and this is a good spot for him. Unfortunately, the best pass rushing DEs were already gone by this point. Gulp.

#61: Bears select USC DE Tuli Tuipulotu
Tuipulotu is my least favorite of the top-100 edge rushers. I don't think he'll be quick enough to succeed as a pass rusher in the NFL. But he was quick enough for a 290-pounder last year and showed up at the Combine at 266. He'd be an intriguing option that should help in run defense. That's enough for me.

#64: Bears select Florida DT Gervon Dexter
I love so many of the players available in this range. But Dexter is the perfect combination of fit and roster need. Another starting-caliber DT is absolutely essential for this roster and the depth options in the draft won't likely get the job done.

#103: Bears select Mississippi WR Jonathan Mingo
I did not like this spot in the draft. I'm not a bing Mingo fan, but this is a solid spot for him. I'm surprised that Dante Pettis snagged $152,500 guaranteed from the Bears, but Mingo costs him his roster spot.

#133: Bears select Michigan TE Luke Schoonmaker
An easy call. Finally. I love Schoonmaker as a prospect despite his alma mater. He's a perfect addition to the TE room from a pro offense with plenty of athleticism and blocking skill.

#136: Bears select Illinois RB Chase Brown
If this pick comes down to Brown v. Tulane's Tyjae Spears, the Bears will be very happy with the outcome. I went with Brown.

#168: Bears select Iowa CB Riley Moss
I like Moss a ton and he's a perfect addition to the roster at this spot. I don't think he's necessarily a starter from the get-go, but he has good tape and a stellar Combine. (I don't like that he ruined the Penn State-Iowa game for me in 2021.)

#218: Bears select Bowling Green DT Karl Brooks
Brooks played DE in the MAC, so he'd have a way to go before becomming a useful NFL DT. But he's a perfect ball of clay and in this scenario, he'd fit in wonderfully behind Kancey, Dexter, and Andrew Billings as a developmental piece.

#258: Bears select Michigan K Jake Moody
Fulfilling the prophecy that I created.

If the Bears completed the simulated draft above, they'd enter 2023 with the following roster, assuming cuts of Jones, Whitehair, and Lucas Patrick:

QB: Justin Fields, P.J. Walker
RB: Khalil Herbert, D'Onta Foreman, Chase Brown, Travis Homer
FB: Khari Blasingame
WR: DJ Moore, Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, Jonathan Mingo, Velus Jones Jr., Equanimeous St. Brown
TE: Cole Kmet, Robert Tonyan, Luke Schoonmaker, Jake Tonges
OT: Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Alex Leatherwood
G: Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, Larry Borom
C: Joe Tippmann, Doug Kramer

DE: DeMarcus Walker, Tuli Tuipulotu, Rasheem Green, Trevis Gipson, Dominique Robinson
DT: Calijah Kancey, Gervon Dexter, Andrew Billings, Karl Brooks
ILB: Tremaine Edmunds
OLB: T.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Dylan Cole
CB: Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Kindle Vildor, Riley Moss, Josh Blackwell
S: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, Jaylon Jones, Elijah Hicks

ST: Jake Moody, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales

MOCK DRAFT - 1ST ROUND

1. Carolina: QB Bryce Young (Alabama)
2. Houston: QB C.J. Stroud (Ohio State)
3. Las Vegas: QB Anthony Richardson (Florida)
----- Las Vegas trades #7, #38, and #70 to Arizona for #3
4. Indianapolis: QB Will Levis (Kentucky)
5. Seattle: DE Will Anderson Jr. (Alabama)
6. Detroit: DT Jalen Carter (Georgia)
7. Arizona: OT Paris Johnson Jr. (Ohio State)
8. Atlanta: DE Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech)
9. New York Jets: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State)
----- New York Jets trade #15 and #43 to Chicago for #9 and #133 (I wrote this before PFN offered nearly the same deal without #133 going back to New York - ha!)
10. Philadelphia: CB Christian Gonzalez (Oregon)
11. Tennessee: OT Broderick Jones (Georgia)
12. Houston: WR Jordan Addison (USC)
13. Green Bay: TE Michael Mayer (Notre Dame)
14. New England: CB Devon Witherspoon (Illinois)
15. Chicago: OT Darnell Wright (Tennessee)
16. Washington: G Peter Skoronski (Northwestern)
17. Dallas: TE Dalton Kincaid (Utah)
----- Dallas trades #26 and #58 to Pittsburgh for #17
18. Detroit: RB Bijan Robinson (Texas)
19. New York Giants: CB Joey Porter Jr. (Penn State)
----- New York Giants trade #25 and #89 to Tampa Bay for #19
20. Philadelphia: DE Nolan Smith (Georgia)
----- Philadelphia trades #30 and #62 to Seattle for #20 and #154
21. Los Angeles Chargers: S Brian Branch (Alabama)
22. Baltimore: DE Lukas Van Ness (Iowa)
23. Minnesota: WR Quentin Johnston (TCU)
24. Jacksonville: DE Myles Murphy (Clemson)
25. Tampa Bay: DT Calijah Kancey (Pitt)
26. Pittsburgh: OT Anton Harrison (Oklahoma)
27. Buffalo: LB Drew Sanders (Arkansas)
28. Carolina: WR Zay Flowers (Boston College)
----- Carolina trades #39, #93, and a 2024 4th to Cincinnati for #28
29. New Orleans: DE Will McDonald IV (Iowa State)
30. Seattle: DT Bryan Bresee (Clemson)
31. Arizona: CB Deonte Banks (Maryland)
----- Arizona trades #34 and #105 to Kansas City for #31 and #178

There's a ton of smoke suggesting that the Texans don't like any of the quarterbacks other than Young, but I simply don't buy that. I think that GM Nick Caserio desperately needs a QB or he's getting fired. Stroud's S2 Cognition test apparently scared many teams...but I suspect they'll feel much more comfortable when they throw on his tape against Georgia from December.

The proposed Bears trade would be a massive win on the trade charts, but I think Poles can pull it off given the Jets' likely desperation with an incredibly small window with QB Aaron Rodgers. Maybe he has to throw in a 2024 5th to get it done; fine.