No lengthy intro to this one. Here's my mock offseason as of November 2023.
Internal Decisions
The Bears have a few big salary cap decisions looming. The most notable decisions, along with my choice on each player, are as follows:
- S Eddie Jackson: $18.14M cap hit, $5.58M dead cap
- Decision: CUT
- C Cody Whitehair: $13.25M cap hit, $4.104M dead cap
- Decision: CUT
- DE DeMarcus Walker: $8.667M cap hit, $4.134M dead cap
- Decision: KEEP
- WR Velus Jones Jr.: $1.474M cap hit, $0.556M dead cap
- Decision: CUT
- RB Travis Homer: $2.125M cap hit, $0.225M dead cap
- Decision: CUT
The Bears currently have $1.859M in dead money for 2024, so adding in the cuts of Jackson, Whitehair, Jones, and Homer, that number grows to $12.324M.
With an adjusted cap of $245.830M, allocating $4M to the practice squad, and accounting for $145.396M of current contracts outside of those described above, the Bears would enter next offseason with approximately $96.434M of salary cap space before their forays into free agency and the draft.
Justin Fields
I remain all-in on Fields...but I think the writing is on the wall. Ryan Poles seems likely to move on from Matt Eberflus this offseason and any new coach will want a new quarterback. So, Poles gives his new coach that opportunity by creating a vacancy, trading Fields to the Falcons for Atlanta's 2025 2nd and Jacksonville's 2024 3rd from the Calvin Ridley trade. Fields becomes a star in Atlanta. The 2025 pick could have conditions on it that make it a 1st or a 3rd depending on certain outcomes, but this feels like the proper basic framework.
Free Agency
The Bears find themselves with a few glaring holes entering 2024. Thankfully, they line up quite well with the strength of the free agent class.
First, the easiest choice: franchise tag Jaylon Johnson, then try to work out an extension. Let's assume the tag is about $20 million on a one-year deal.
The most obvious: C. It's been a disaster for years. Thankfully, the best C in the league -- Miami's Connor Williams -- is a free agent and the Dolphins are more than $20 million over the cap with a bunch of key free agents. The Bears could also target Tyler Biadasz from Dallas or Lloyd Cushenberry from Denver, but go for the best. Bears sign Williams to a five-year, $65 million deal with $30 million guaranteed.
The previous most obvious spot: DE. But the acquisition of Montez Sweat changes the urgency here. The defense doesn't work when it's unable to get pressure by the defensive linemen. With Sweat in tow, the pass rush has improved. But it could certainly get even better. Here's my preference list for 2024:
- Josh Allen (Jacksonville)
- Chase Young (San Francisco)
- Brian Burns (Carolina)
- Danielle Hunter (Minnesota)
- Josh Uche (New England)
The franchise tag figures to take a bite out of that market, but some unexpected players reach free agency every year. We'll see who it is in 2024. The Bears will need to be at the top of the list for all free agents. If Allen reaches free agency, back up the Brinks truck. But he won't, so the Bears sign Danielle Hunter to a three-year, $60 million deal with $35 million guaranteed. It's a nice deal to bridge the Bears to their next edge who hopefully comes in via the draft.
After DE, the Bears need to find a new starting S opposite Jaquan Brisker. Eddie Jackson simply can't stay on the field. While he could be brought back on a dramatically reduced contract, it seems more likely that the Poles regime elects to go another way. Again, thankfully, free agency offers great options on the strength of the 2nd round of the 2020 draft:
- Antoine Winfield Jr. (Tampa Bay)
- Geno Stone (Baltimore)
- Grant Delpit (Cleveland)
- Kyle Dugger (New England)
- Jeremy Chinn (Carolina)
- Xavier McKinney (New York Giants)
I'll guess that the Bears avoid the top of that market and nab McKinney on a three-year, $36 million deal with $20 million guaranteed.
Finally, we get to the gaping hole in the wide receiver room left by Chase Claypool's, well, whatever that was and Darnell Mooney's flop of a walk year. The Bears likely don't need to find another star in free agency thanks to the overwhelming presence of D.J. Moore and the relative lack of stars in free agency. Still, they probably need to find another #2/3 before reaching draft day. The options:
- Michael Pittman (Indianapolis)
- Marquise Brown (Arizona)
- Calvin Ridley (Jacksonville)
- Curtis Samuel (Washington)
- Darnell Mooney (Chicago)
- Tee Higgins (Cincinnati)
- Tyler Boyd (Cincinnati)
I love Pittman, but he'll surely get slapped with the franchise tag. So, instead, let's say that the Bears bring back Mooney on a one-year, $10 million deal.
Regardless of coaching staff or scheme, I think WR Equanimeous St. Brown returns on a one-year, $2 million deal.
There would surely be other free agent additions beyond these big three, but we're likely talking about depth options.
Draft
The main purpose for this article, as it will be every time. The Bears have their own picks in the 1st-5th rounds, an extra 1st from Carolina, an extra 3rd from Jacksonville (per the Fields trade above), and an extra 4th from Philadelphia. This mock was completed using Pro Football Network's mock draft tool. As of the time of publication, the Bears possess #1 overall from Carolina and #4 overall themselves.
Here we go again.
#1: USC QB Caleb Williams
The trade offers will be massive. There will be opportunities to add multiple 1sts, plus other Day Two picks.
I can't pretend to know how to evaluate QBs. I thought Patrick Mahomes was radioactive and wouldn't have touched him. Big whoops! Regardless, Williams has the pedigree and ludicrous production, despite the hilarious shortcomings of his collegiate defenses. Take the top prospect, reset the rookie salary at QB, and give the new coach his new QB.
Bears trade #4 to Tennessee for #10, #41, and a 2025 2nd
This is the most interesting and important decision for Poles to make assuming he consummates a Fields trade. In this mock, I received an idyllic offer from Tennesse that I ultimately took. But that only applies in a situation where the top three picks are Williams, North Carolina QB Drake Maye, and Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. If MHJ makes it to #4, I'm taking him. Passing on Penn State LT Olu Fashanu was tough, but Braxton Jones has really emerged.
Bears trade #10 and #100 to New Orleans for #12 and #49
Too many good players on the board still not to take this deal. In particular, I planned to take one of LSU WR Malik Nabers, Florida State WR Keon Coleman, or Florida State DE Jared Verse.
#12: LSU WR Malik Nabers
Well, Coleman and Verse went off at #10 and #11, so Nabers is the guy. He looks an awful lot like DJ Moore. He may turn into a psychopath if he doesn't get 200 targets a year, but the hit rate on #1 WRs from LSU is very high.
#41: Ohio State DE J.T. Tuimoloau
JTT has the physical traits of a monster star and the production of a solid regular. This is a great spot for him.
#49: Arizona OT Jordan Morgan
Morgan would've been a 1st-round-pick without an ACL tear in 2022. This is a great spot for him and adds an essential depth piece while providing insurance in case Braxton Jones backslides.
#68: Ohio State DT Michael Hall Jr.
Hall has been inconsistent but has the makings of a 3 technique to thrive in a 4-3 defense. This presumes that the basic structure of the defense remains without a formational shift to a 3-4.
#90: Washington WR Jalen McMillan
McMillan is a far cry from teammate Rome Odunze and he might just be a product of the Huskies' high-flying offense...but maybe not. He's worth a shot here.
#128: Iowa TE Luke Lachey
When Iowa TEs come available, just take them, especially when an injury causes them to drop about 50 slots lower than they should be.
#132: Arkansas S Hudson Clark
The former walk-on moves well with a big frame. It's a good time to add a body to the secondary.
Looking to 2025, the Bears would hold the following picks:
1st (CHI)
2nd (CAR)
2nd (CHI)
2nd (TEN)
3rd (CHI)
4th (CHI)
5th (CHI)
6th (CHI)
6th (MIA)
Final Roster
New players added via free agency are underlined. Draftees are bolded. Here's the 53:
QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT
RB (4): Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, FREE AGENT, Khari Blasingame
TE (4): Cole Kmet, Luke Lachey, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT
WR (6): D.J. Moore, Malik Nabers, Darnell Mooney, Tyler Scott, Jalen McMillan, Equanimeous St. Brown
OT (4): Darnell Wright, Braxton Jones, Jordan Morgan, Larry Borom
OG (3): Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, Ja'Tyre Carter
C (1): Connor Williams
DE (5): Montez Sweat, Danielle Hunter, J.T. Tuimoloau, DeMarcus Walker, Dominique Robinson
DT (5): Andrew Billings, Gervon Dexter, Zacch Pickens, Michael Hall Jr., FREE AGENT
ILB (1): Tremaine Edmunds
OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT
CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, Josh Blackwell
S (5): Jaquan Brisker, Xavier McKinney, Elijah Hicks, Hudson Clark, Jaylon Jones
ST (3): FREE AGENT, Gill, Scales
At the end of the mock, I found myself wishing that I had taken Minnesota S Tyler Nubin or Utah S Cole Bishop instead of Morgan...which is exactly what a Bears fan would say. No: add the offensive lineman to help your young QB by ensuring that you avoid nightmarish holes when injuries invariably arise.
The defense still feels like it is one impact DT short of being where I want it to be, but otherwise it's in good shape. The offense, on the other hand, has a chance to be special.
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