Well, here we are again. Another Penn State-Michigan game is upon us and, yet again, the game comes with serious Big Ten and even national implications. Both teams are ranked in the top 10 of every meaningful ranking system. In both Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings and Jeff Sagarin's computer ratings, Michigan is 1st with Penn State 5th. Michigan is 3rd in the current College Football Playoff rankings with Penn State 10th. Both teams are one spot higher in both the AP and Coaches polls. Simply put, both teams are very highly regarded.
Of course, they've taken different paths to get here. Penn State has played what can be considered, more or less, a relatively standard Big Ten schedule thus far. In addition to a handful of cakewalks, Penn State has played the following teams with the following SP+ rankings:
- #3 Ohio State
- #34 Iowa
- #37 Maryland
- #49 West Virginia
Conversely, Michigan has played...ummm...well, here are their top four opponents thus far per SP+:
- #51 Minnesota
- #53 Rutgers
- #54 Nebraska
- #72 Michigan State
Michigan's schedule has been so egregiously bad so far that six of their nine opponents rank among the bottom half of all 128 FBS squads: #72 Michigan State, #73 UNLV, #88 Purdue, #95 Indiana, #105 Bowling Green, and #117 East Carolina. Sadly, the CFP committee has consistently held the same position with regard to teams with horrific schedules like Michigan's to date: no problem. Just don't lose more than once.
For most teams with such a schedule, the argument that "they haven't played anybody!" would hold lots of water. However, that just doesn't work here. Michigan is coming off of a combined 25-1 regular season record in the prior two seasons, and featured top-15 recruiting classes in 2020 (#10), 2021 (#13), and 2022 (#9). While Michigan is slipping on the recruiting trail -- they ranked 17th in 2023 and are currently 15th in 2024 -- that doesn't matter for this game. They're loaded and ultra productive.
Penn State, thankfully, is also extremely talented. The Nittany Lions are helmed by one of the greatest recruiting victories in recent memory: QB Drew Allar was 447th ranked player in the 247 Sports Composite when Penn State offered him a scholarship on January 30, 2021 and a low four-star recruit ranked 257th nationally when he committed a few weeks later on March 8. By the end of the 2022 recruiting cycle, Allar was the #29 player in the Composite and the #3 overall player per 247 Sports. Allar took exceptional care of the football to start his career, throwing 311 passes before his first interception, a brutal, backbreaking pick against a terrible Indiana team. Since that interception, Allar has played immaculate football, going 27/36 for 308 yards and 5 touchdowns to end the Indiana game and in a subsequent beatdown of Maryland last week. Allar looks different after the pick. He loves driving the ball to the outside of the field on curls and outs given his rocket arm, but attacking the middle of the field yielded his biggest success last week; he'll need to do that again against Michigan, even though the windows will be very tight.
Penn State's offensive line is led by arguably the best offensive tackle in the nation: LT Olu Fashanu. But more important that just Fashanu is the depth and high floor across the unit. RT Caedan Wallace has started for 3.5 years and is a fifth-year senior; after a wobbly 2022 that saw him supplanted by the athletically-limited Bryce Effner, Wallace has emerged as a fringy draftable player this year. Center Hunter Nourzad started for an entire career at Cornell before moving to Penn State last year; Nourzad turns 24 this month. RG Sal Wormley is in his second year as a starter and is a fifth-year senior. LG JB Nelson spent two years at Lackawanna Community College, then played in four games last year before taking over a starting gig this year. Top reserve OT Drew Shelton made five starts as a true freshman and has appeared in every game this year. Top reserve OG Vega Ioane is a redshirt freshman who has played in every game and started half of them this year. That top seven is both loaded and comes with about as much experience as you can possibly have on a collegiate line.
And yet, Penn State's offensive line struggled mightily against Ohio State and, given prior year performances against Michigan, it's hard to see them holding up in either the passing game against Michigan's stunts or in bully ball.
As for the pass catchers, Penn State's tight ends are tremendous with Tyler Warren leading the way, Ontario native Theo Johnson bringing the measurables, and third TE Khalil Dinkins contributing every time he gets on the field. Unfortunately, the wide receiver room after KeAndre Lambert-Smith has been hugely disappointing. KLS is a good receiver who should be able to get open enough against Michigan, though he struggles with physicality, something that will surely rear its head on Saturday. Unless Dante Cephas replicates his performance against Maryland this weekend (unlikely), Penn State lacks an obvious #2 option with Trey Wallace still sporting a sling. Florida State transfer Malik McClain flashed early but is now largely out of the rotation. Sean Clifford's younger brother, Liam, lacks the explosiveness necessary to create separation. Only former top recruit Kaden Saunders offers the athleticism necessary to compete against top defenders, but he has yet to grab a full-time role. Will OC Mike Yurcich roll with KLS, Cephas, and Saunders like he probably needs to do on Saturday? Doubtful. And sticking with rotations outside will likely cause problems for Allar as he searches for open men.
Finally, the backfield. The two-headed monster of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton has turned into a one-headed monster with Allen proving to be the only reliable ball carrier. Yurcich will need some creativity on Saturday with Singleton, including having him spend some time at wide receiver, not unlike how Michigan has employed Donovan Edwards out wide this year. Singleton just hasn't figured out how to create big runs between the tackles this year whereas Allen just drags bodies on every play.
In the end, Penn State's offense has to have some success running the ball to create throwing lanes for Allar. I simply don't think they can do it and won't believe it against the Wolverines until I see it. And for a team that has really struggled to generate explosive plays thus far in 2023, Saturday seems like a seriously unlikely day to start.
Thankfully for the Nittany Lions, the Penn State defense is elite and has the ability to keep the team in games where the offense struggles. Penn State's defense is coming off of a remarkable effort against the run last week against Maryland, holding Maryland to -2 yards on eight carries, excluding sacks. They did so without two of their top four defensive ends, though both of Amin Vanover and projected first-round pick Chop Robinson are expected back this weekend.
With Robinson and Vanover back, the top-four outside of Robinson, Adisa Isaac, Dani Dennis-Sutton, and Vanover offers an ideal combination of pedigree (both Robinson and DDS were 247 5-stars), experience, and athleticism. Zuriah Fisher remains a bit raw but contributes.
Moving inside, the defensive tackle rotation seems almost comical: Penn State has played five defensive tackles at least 109 snaps but none more than 226 snaps. Last year, Penn State gave a lot of snaps to undersized DT Hakeem Beamon in the Big House and the results were devastating. Both Beamon and fellow undersized DT Zane Durant have bulked up and now lead the way in snaps. For reference, Beamon was listed at 264 in 2022 and reportedly dipped as low as the 240s versus 290 this year. However, on Saturday, heftier options D'Von Ellies, Coziah Izzard, and especially 310-pound Jordan van den Berg will likely need to get run to cause congestion inside.
Are Penn State's defensive linemen big enough to cause problems for Michigan's elite offensive line? In my eyes, no. The Nittany DL still primarily succeeds based on athleticism, not power, despite improvements in the latter this year. Michigan's OL will create enough run lanes and they'll keep QB JJ McCarthy clean. McCarthy has played in such a way that the identity of the skill position players doesn't really matter. McCarthy reads the field well and finds open receivers, regardless of who they are. The only way to combat this is to hit him before he can throw the ball, and I don't see Penn State's defensive line getting home.
So the pressure will need to come from elsewhere. The Penn State linebacking corps offers a solution. Both Curtis Jacobs and Abdul Carter have played a lot of high-level snaps and can wreak havoc in the pass rush while covering backs and tight ends. They'll have a lot on their plate on Saturday, especially if the slippery McCarthy slithers out of the backfield. As great as his story is, former walk-on Dom DeLuca cannot keep up in this kind of game, and if DC Manny Diaz sticks the 6'1", 218 lbs. DeLuca in man-to-man matchups, McCarthy will exploit them. Ditto for Tyler Elsdon and thumper Kobe King in the middle of the defense. Thankfully, Penn State has a pair of solutions in house. Option #1: give true freshman Tony Rojas a lot of run. Rojas has top-level athleticism and has already shown tremendous football instincts in his 84 snaps to date.
Option #2: live in the nickel. Now, this only works if Penn State can contain Michigan's rushing attack with six box defenders, or perhaps with a safety pushing up in the box, leaving Cover 1 looks behind him. That will force Penn State to play man coverage. I'm confident that nickel corner DaeQuan Hardy will hold up in coverage; the lightly-recruited Pittsburgh native has been a revelation. Johnny Dixon has had a strong year on the outside. Sadly, Kalen King has underwhelmed. Saturday presents an opportunity for King to reenter the first-round conversation. (My girls and I met him and his family just before midnight on opening night; he was fantastic in person and we're pulling for him even more than we were before.) Fourth corner Cam Miller has the body and athleticism to hold up, though I suspect that the rotations will tighten up on Saturday.
Jaylen Reed and Kevin Winston Jr. are the clear top safeties with Zakee Wheatley and Keaton Ellis clearly behind them. I suspect we'll see very little of Wheatley on Saturday; he's springy and athletic, but he is quite slight.
I think that Penn State's secondary should match up reasonably well with Michigan's receivers. However, if McCarthy has too much time, the coverage won't hold up forever, especially if the defenders are forced to choose between stopping McCarthy's arm or his legs.
Penn State's special teams got off to a brutal start in early September, but they have found their way. Columbia transfer K Alex Felkins has a stranglehold on the placekicking job, Gabe Nwosu is bombing kickoffs, Aussie Riley Thompson has excelled at punter, Hardy has added an explosive element to the punt return game, and Singleton remains a solid kickoff returner. Nittany's coverage units have also been stingy. This section would've looked a lot different six weeks ago, so kudos to STC Stacy Collins for getting things cleaned up.
The refrain surrounding Penn State football's trip to Ohio State last month was "if not now, when?" I'm afraid that the question is largely the same this week and, unfortunately, the sobering answer is this: "never...absent a fluke."
But there are reasons for hope. First and foremost, the story on Jim Harbaugh's tenure at Michigan was that he never got over the hump and never would as recently as 25 months ago. Then, Harbaugh got over the hump. Storylines change in a hurry when a 60-minute tilt goes your way.
Much has been made of James Franklin's results against top-10 opponents. It turns out that Franklin's teams don't win much against elite competition, as is the case for all but a tiny handful of coaches nationally, but they are routinely a tough out. Looking at Franklin's actual results against that elite competition yields a few interesting nuggets. Here are the 18 games to date, excluding whatever the 2020 season was (I'm sure Michigan fans won't protest that):
For reference and to show how exceptional this is for a non-elite squad, Michigan has been blown out seven times from 2016 through today, also excluding the COVID season; the run of blowouts was, rather ironically, started by Penn State:
- 2017 Penn State (29)
- 2018 Ohio State (23)
- 2018 Florida (26)
- 2019 Wisconsin (21)
- 2019 Ohio State (29)
- 2019 Alabama (19)
- 2021 Georgia (23)
Looking back to the chart above, Penn State has continuously overperformed expectations against top-10 teams from 2016 onward and that is especially true when playing at home. This isn't surprising: many of these games featured Whiteouts or other full-stadium themes, and most of those games were under the Beaver Stadium lights.
When we dig a little deeper, some cracks do emerge in this argument. Although 14 of the top-10 opponents were from the Big Ten East, only one of Franklin's three wins against top-10 teams came against a Big Ten East opponent: the memorable Ohio State Whiteout in 2016. Franklin's other two wins came against Wisconsin in Indianapolis in 2016 and versus Utah in the Rose Bowl last year, fueled by Sean Clifford's virtuoso finale. Big Ten East competition has been uniquely devastating for Penn State football.
But that understates exactly how this has played out: the problem is Michigan. Penn State has consistently outperformed against Ohio State in large part because Franklin has built Penn State to challenge Ohio State specifically. Michigan, on the other hand, plays an entirely different style of play, one that Penn State isn't built to contest. As a result, Michigan largely gets to do what they want to do on both sides of the ball.
And the numbers bear this out. Nittany fans, shield your eyes before looking below. Here are Penn State's results versus Michigan during James Franklin's tenure:
Yikes. Big yikes. Michigan absolutely owns Penn State again under Franklin. It isn't quite as bad as it was during Lloyd Carr's run in Ann Arbor, but it's close.
The ownership isn't just straight up either. For 2016 onward, Penn State has outperformed the spread against non-Michigan top-10 opponents by 6.9 points per game. Conversely, from 2016 onward, Penn State has underperformed against the spread against all Michigan teams -- top 10 or otherwise -- by 7.6 points per game.
Finally, Penn State has done a tremendous job against the spread this season, covering in seven of nine contests. Of course, two of the losses against the spread came in the last three games, so who knows where this team is right now?
So, what does it all mean? Nobody knows for sure. A Penn State win would invite delightful chaos into the Big Ten picture. A subsequent Ohio State victory in Ann Arbor would leave an 11-1 Penn State whose only loss was to undefeated and top-ranked Ohio State; on the other hand, a future Michigan victory in The Game would see Big Ten East self-cannibalization fully realized with three nearly identical squads at the top. In that scenario, the Big Ten East champion would then be decided by the conference records of the Big Ten West opponents played by these three. Yes, that's no joke. The results of games like Indiana @ Illinois, Rutgers @ Iowa, Northwestern @ Wisconsin, Purdue @ Northwestern, Iowa @ Nebraska, and Indiana @ Purdue would determine which of Penn State, Michigan, or Ohio State likely makes the College Football Playoff. What a world.
Sadly, I don't think we live in that world. When I consider the styles of play employed by the two teams, James Franklin's historical underperformance against Michigan, and Penn State's inability to generate big plays, this game has the look of a soul-crushing descent into demoralized defeat written all over it.
Michigan 24, Penn State 10
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