There are big updates since the last offseason update. Namely:
- The Bears earned the #1 overall pick from the Panthers and #9 from themselves.
- Dolphins C Connor Williams tore his ACL.
- Justin Fields stacked a strong stretch of play after returning from injury, compiling QBRs of 71.2, 40.4, 64.8, 18 (with two picks on Hail Marys skewing this number somewhat), 63, 64.9, and 56.5. Prior to his injury, he posted four QBRs under 20 in his six starts.
One more important note: this mock offseason is what I want to see, not what I think the Bears will do.
Internal Decisions
As with prior mocks, the big cuts are easy: S Eddie Jackson ($5.58M dead cap), G Cody Whitehair ($4.104M), and RB Travis Homer ($0.225M). Dead cap total after those cuts: $11.768M. I actually think that Velus Jones Jr. will stick around as a special teamer and converted RB. We'll see.
With an adjusted cap of $247.427M, allocating $4M to the practice squad, and accounting for $150.925M of current contracts outside of those described above, the Bears would enter next offseason with approximately $80.734M of salary cap space before their forays into free agency and the draft.
Justin Fields
Fields has surely improved his trade value dramatically over the past month or so. Whereas it might have been a couple of 3rds a month ago, it's likely a 2nd and a 3rd with the possibility of sniffing a 1st at this point.
But securing the #1 overall pick significantly complicates the decision with what to do with Fields.
If the decision was purely financial, Fields would remain the guy. The value offered by the bevy of picks attainable in a trade-down scenario would enable the Bears to litter the roster with cheap talent around Fields, even with his enhanced earnings in the coming years.
If the decision was about the locker room's preference, Fields would be the guy. He is clearly loved and has earned the respect of his teammates.
If, on the other hand, the decision is about the QB's ceiling...I'm not sure which direction this thing should go. Caleb Williams makes tons of plays, but he makes them in a way that is very similar to Fields, extending plays with his legs before looking downfield.
If Williams was the choice, any sensible team would move on from Matt Eberflus and let a new coach draft their own QB. The Bears...are not that team. Similarly, any sensible team that elects to keep their 3rd year coach would also then keep their QB. The Bears...might be that team? Who knows?
I'm keeping Fields. Even with the growing pains along the way and despite the fact that Fields' collegiate success was surely fueled in part by the outrageously talented rosters on which he played at Ohio State, I still think there is a second quartile QB in Fields and that's more than enough for sustained success. Fields has a plus NFL arm and an incredible physical profile that enables him to survive in chaotic situations, especially given his leg strength which makes him extremely difficult to sack. I'm sticking with Fields and sticking a big "For Sale" sign in the lawn at Halas Hall with the #1 overall pick on it.
Free Agency
Quick hits with projections from PFF:
- Franchise tag for CB Jaylon Johnson (1/$20M) while attempting to extend him
- Sign S Xavier McKinney (3/$25M with $17M guaranteed)
- Sign C Andre James (3/$24M with $13M guaranteed)
- Sign WR Curtis Samuel (2/$18M with $12M guaranteed)
- Sign DE Jadeveon Clowney (1/$9M, all guaranteed)
- Sign WR Equanimeous St. Brown (1/$2M)
The most important goals this offseason are (i) keeping a home-grown star, (ii) bringing in a veteran starting C for Fields after years of awful play at the pivot, and (iii) adding another boost to the pass rush. Johnson, James, and Clowney check those boxes.
Based purely on AAVs, the above spending spree would utilize $56.333M of cap space. This should leave plenty for the draft class.
Draft
The main purpose for this article, as it will be every time. The Bears have their own picks in the 1st-5th rounds, an extra 1st from Carolina, and an extra 4th from Philadelphia. This mock was completed using Pro Football Network's mock draft tool.
Here we go again.
CBS recently mocked the Bears moving back one spot to #2 in exchange for #41 and a 2025 1st from Washington. That'd be great. PFN suggests a trade from #1 to #3 with New England that brings back #34, #68, a 2025 1st, and a 2025 2nd. That's the winner for me...as a first deal...unless someone else ponies up a deal that is simply too good to pass up. And that's where the Atlanta Falcons could come into play. Atlanta has all of their own picks in the first five rounds for the next three drafts and have an extra 3rd incoming this year from Jacksonville for the Calvin Ridley trade. Atlanta has a decent roster in a mess of a division, so a move for a franchise QB could catapult them to the top. To make matters even better, they have a pair of recent DE draftees in Arnold Ebiketie and Zach Harrison that could be the sweeteners that the Bears desire, presuming that WR Drake London is off limits.
Bears trade #1 to Atlanta for #8, #43, #74, a 2025 1st, a 2025 2nd, a 2026 1st, and DE Zach Harrison
Atlanta makes their move for Williams and the Bears secure a bounty. Because Atlanta figures to be substantially better in 2024 than Carolina was in 2023, the Bears are able to extract that 2026 1st. Compared to last year's haul, the picks are of similar value while Harrison is surely less valuable than D.J. Moore, though his paltry contract comes with significant value.
If this trade isn't available, I'd prefer to see the Bears deal with the Raiders. They are a dumpster fire of an organization whose future picks figure to be exceptionally valuable. But the drop from #1 to #13 would require the kind of massive haul (picks + DE Maxx Crosby) that Vegas is unlikely to stomach.
#8: Washington WR Rome Odunze
I desperately want to come out of this draft with one of Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, or Odunze. Odunze and Nabers are neck-and-neck for me, so I'm ecstatic to get Odunze here. He's big, he's fast, he's fluid, and his catch radius is massive. I eschewed some excellent trade proposals, made easier by...
Bears trade #9 to New York Jets for #10 and #72
Free pick. Nice!
Bears trade #10 to Tampa Bay for #20, a 2025 1st, and a 2025 6th
Woah. This was the spot that gave me the most trouble. I had to pass on blue chippers like DE Dallas Turner, DT Jer'Zhan Newton, DE Chop Robinson, DE Laiatu Latu, and DE Jared Verse to make this deal. But that 2025 1st is just too juicy. The Bucs came up for LSU QB Jayden Daniels, as expected.
Bears trade #20 to Arizona for #21 and a 2025 3rd
Well, all three of Newton, Latu, and Verse were still on the board. Grab another pick!
#21: Florida State DE Jared Verse
Verse v. Latu is a fun decision to make! Both have good frames, tremendous motors, and spent a lot of time playing a stand-up DE role in college. Both are also age 23 already. Verse seems to play a bit bigger, so I went with him. But either would be a great addition for the Bears.
#43: South Carolina WR Xavier Legette
Legette shows up in a ton of my mocks. He's DK Metcalf 2.0. He would offer the Bears the kind of big-bodied receiver they haven't had since his fellow Gamecock, Alshon Jeffery, led the receiving room.
Bears trade #72 to Washington for #96 and a 2025 3rd
In this mock, Washington took MHJ in the first before nabbing Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders in the 2nd. Their 2025 3rd could be higher than #72, so getting that pick in addition to #96 was too good to pass up, especially with two more picks coming shortly thereafter. Unfortunately they did draft one of my favorites here in Oregon RB Bucky Irving.
#74: Utah S Cole Bishop
Bishop sure looks like an early-to-mid second rounder come draft day, but as of now, he's available here. Holy smokes, what a great looking, crazy athletic prospect.
#75: Michigan DT Kris Jenkins
Another plus addition to a burgeoning DT group.
#96: Oregon C Jackson Powers-Johnson
This pick was supposed to be Yale OT Kiran Amegadjie, but Pittsburgh nabbed him two picks earlier. Fortunately, Powers-Johnson is a great value here and immediately becomes the top interior OL backup.
#106: Kansas State TE Ben Sinnott
I didn't love any of the TEs in this spot, but I liked them considerably more than the TEs who figured to be available in the 5th. Sinnott appears to move much better than Ohio State's Cade Stover, so he is the pick.
#121: Oregon CB Khyree Jackson
Jackson has great length and good production. He's a good fit in this spot.
#137: Michigan RB Blake Corum
I don't know what Corum becomes as a pro. But there's a chance that his bowling ball physique and style of play works at the next level. This is a fine time to take that chance.
Looking to 2025, the Bears would hold the following picks:
1st (ATL)
1st (TB)
1st (CHI)
2nd (CAR)
2nd (ATL)
2nd (CHI)
3rd (ARZ)
3rd (WSH)
3rd (CHI)
4th (CHI)
5th (CHI)
6th (TB)
6th (CHI)
6th (MIA)
And in 2026, the Bears would have their own full allotment plus a 1st from Atlanta.
Final Roster
New players added via free agency are underlined. Draftees are bolded (including Harrison). Here's the 53:
QB (3): Justin Fields, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT
RB (4): Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, Blake Corum, Khari Blasingame
TE (4): Cole Kmet, Ben Sinnott, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT
WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Curtis Samuel, Xavier Legette, Tyler Scott, Equanimeous St. Brown
OT (3): Darnell Wright, Braxton Jones, Larry Borom
OG (3): Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, Ja'Tyre Carter
C (2): Andre James, Jackson Powers-Johnson
DE (5): Montez Sweat, Jadeveon Clowney, Jared Verse, DeMarcus Walker, Zach Harrison
DT (5): Andrew Billings, Gervon Dexter, Zacch Pickens, Kris Jenkins, FREE AGENT
ILB (1): Tremaine Edmunds
OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT
CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, Khyree Jackson
S (5): Jaquan Brisker, Xavier McKinney, Cole Bishop, Elijah Hicks, Jaylon Jones
ST (3): Cairo Santos, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales
Holy moly. This is an outrageous collection of talent. I would've liked a projectable 3rd TE and 3rd OT...but when those are my big concerns at the end, I think it speaks exceptionally well of the draft.
The added line talent on both sides is encouraging. But the biggest improvement here comes at the WR spot where Odunze, Samuel, and Legette breathe more life into the room than it's had in a decade. With Moore, Scott, and St. Brown all returning, Fields gets the right combination of continuity and new talent with which to work.
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