No big updates since the earlier January mock, so away we go.
Internal Decisions
As with prior mocks, the big cuts are easy: S Eddie Jackson ($5.58M dead cap), G Cody Whitehair ($4.104M), and RB Travis Homer ($0.225M). Dead cap total after those cuts: $11.768M. I actually think that Velus Jones Jr. will stick around as a special teamer and converted RB or a bottom-of-the-chart WR. We'll see. Velus is a plus KR when it gets cold and kickoffs don't carry the endzone in Chicago. That's nice in December and could be clutch in January if the Bears ever play into January again.
With an adjusted cap of $247.427M, allocating $4M to the practice squad, and accounting for $150.925M of current contracts outside of those described above, the Bears would enter next offseason with approximately $80.734M of salary cap space before their forays into free agency and the draft.
Justin Fields
I've been somewhere in the neighborhood of 70/30 or 60/40 to keep Fields for a while now. But as I keep digging into the draft prep, it's tougher to maintain this position. I could be anywhere from 60/40 to 40/60 these days, depending on the individual day. So, let's try a mock taking Williams.
That brings up the matter of Fields' trade value. On one hand, Fields has never been a plus passer in the NFL, stunting his value. On the other hand, Fields is an ultra-elite runner and has improved as a passer each year as the supporting cast has improved around him. Further helping his value: numerous teams are in need of a QB upgrade and it's pretty easy to make the argument that Fields would be better in many other, non-Chicago offenses, especially having undergone plenty of NFL seasoning with the Bears. So, with that in mind, here are the trade packages I think that the Bears can get for Fields:
- From Pittsburgh: #20 overall and #119 OR #20 overall and a 2025 3rd
- From Seattle: #16 overall
- From Las Vegas: #13 overall
- From Atlanta: #8 overall; Chicago sends back #110 alongside Fields
- From New York Giants: #39 overall and #47 overall OR #6 overall with Chicago sending back #75 overall alongside Fields
- From New England: #34 overall and #68 overall
Denver would seemingly make sense as a trade partner, but they probably can't justify an additional significant draft outlay for a QB after making the disastrous Russell Wilson deal so recently.
There's a lot of rumors suggesting that the Bears would only get a 2nd or even perhaps a 3rd+4th back for Fields. I just don't buy it. The QB market is extremely rich. Sam Darnold fetched a 6th, plus a 2nd and a 4th in the next draft. Surely Fields is worth a good deal more than Darnold.
Free Agency
Quick hits with projections from PFF:
- Franchise tag for CB Jaylon Johnson (1/$20M) while attempting to extend him
- Sign S Xavier McKinney (3/$25M with $17M guaranteed)
- Sign C Andre James (3/$24M with $13M guaranteed)
- Sign WR Curtis Samuel (2/$18M with $12M guaranteed)
- Sign DE Jadeveon Clowney (1/$9M, all guaranteed)
- Sign WR Equanimeous St. Brown (1/$2M)
The most important goals this offseason are (i) keeping a home-grown star, (ii) bringing in a veteran starting C after years of awful play at the pivot, and (iii) adding another boost to the pass rush. Johnson, James, and Clowney check those boxes.
Based purely on AAVs, the above spending spree would utilize $56.333M of cap space. This should leave plenty for the draft class.
Draft
The main purpose for this article, as it will be every time. The Bears have their own picks in the 1st-5th rounds, an extra 1st from Carolina, and an extra 4th from Philadelphia. This mock was completed using Pro Football Network's mock draft tool.
Here we go again, this time with Williams leading the way.
Bears trade QB Justin Fields to Las Vegas for #13 overall
It's a terrible landing spot for Fields. I'd rather get a mid-round pick from Las Vegas this year and their 2025 1st. But this works.
#1: USC QB Caleb Williams
The Williams hype machine is in full force. Williams has a true #1 pick pedigree after half a decade of being the top player in his class dating to his time at Gonzaga HS in Washington, DC alongside star Penn State LT Olu Fashanu. Williams has every bit the arm that Fields has, and while his running ability is a tick below Fields, it's plenty helpful. Add in that Williams can grow with a young, improving offensive core in Chicago and the future is bright. I have no doubt that Williams will win over the Bears' locker room. He's a dynamic playmaker and those guys tend to win fans, even if the initial adjustment from the wildly-popular Fields is bumpy.
#9: Washington WR Rome Odunze
There are very few hard and fast rules in the draft. One of those rules: if you draft a rookie QB, give him an elite toy. With Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Brock Bowers off the board, I eschewed a future 1st from Tampa Bay in exchange for locking in Odunze.
Bears trade #13 to Cincinnati for #18, a 2025 2nd, and a 2025 3rd
All four of Illinois DT Jer'Zhan Newton, Florida State DE Jared Verse, Penn State DE Chop Robinson, and UCLA DE Laiatu Latu were on the board, so this trade offered too much to pass up.
#18: Penn State DE Chop Robinson
I would've loved to trade down again -- New England offered #68 and a 2025 2nd to drop from #18 to #34 -- but I couldn't risk missing out on a DE with Verse and Latu both off the board. So, even with Newton on the board, Chop comes to Chicago.
Bears trade #75 to Pittsburgh for #84 and #115
I regretted this deal as soon as I made it. West Virginia C Zach Frazier, Western Kentucky WR Malachi Corley, Oregon RB Bucky Irving, Utah S Cole Bishop, and North Carolina WR Tez Walker were all on the board when I made the deal. Almost all of them were picked before #84...but not actually all of them!
#84: West Virginia C Zach Frazier
Frazier is a great prospect and steps in immediately as the top interior OL backup.
#106: Washington State S Jaden Hicks
This is decent enough value for Hicks, but more than anything else, this pick was about need.
Bears trade #115 to Pittsburgh for #116 and #212
I'll take a free pick.
#116: Florida State DT Braden Fiske
The Western Michigan transfer likely won't overwhelm anyone at the Combine, but he's highly productive and his undersized nature won't hurt him in the Eberflus scheme.
#118: Florida WR Ricky Pearsall
I don't love Pearsall, but he is slowly growing on me. He does some nice things and would be a solid addition in the back of the WR room.
#137: Colorado State TE Dallin Holker
I'd love to find a complete TE to add behind Cole Kmet. Holker is not that TE. But he's a nice red zone receiving target and it's tougher to find receiving options in big bodies.
#212: Iowa P Tory Taylor
There's no way that Taylor makes it to the 7th. If that inexplicably happens, the Bears should absolutely upgrade over Trenton Gill.
Looking to 2025, the Bears would hold the following picks:
1st (CHI)
2nd (CAR)
2nd (CIN)
2nd (CHI)
3rd (CIN)
3rd (CHI)
4th (CHI)
5th (CHI)
6th (CHI)
6th (MIA)
And in 2026, the Bears would have their own full allotment plus a 1st from Atlanta.
Final Roster
New players added via free agency are underlined. Draftees are bolded (including Harrison). Here's the 53:
QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT
RB (4): Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, FREE AGENT, Khari Blasingame
TE (4): Cole Kmet, Dallin Holker, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT
WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Curtis Samuel, Tyler Scott, Equanimeous St. Brown, Ricky Pearsall
OT (3): Darnell Wright, Braxton Jones, Larry Borom
OG (3): Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, Ja'Tyre Carter
C (2): Andre James, Zach Frazier
DE (5): Montez Sweat, Jadeveon Clowney, Chop Robinson, DeMarcus Walker, Dominique Robinson
DT (5): Andrew Billings, Gervon Dexter, Zacch Pickens, Braden Fiske, FREE AGENT
ILB (1): Tremaine Edmunds
OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT
CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, FREE AGENT
S (5): Jaquan Brisker, Xavier McKinney, Jaden Hicks, Elijah Hicks, Jaylon Jones
ST (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, Patrick Scales
Taking Williams at #1 overall really stunts my ability to accrue numerous picks to fill holes. But, if Williams turns out to be an upgrade over Fields, it'll be worth it.
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