With the real start of NFL free agency looming, it's time for a look at what the Chicago Bears need to add this offseason in order to improve on last year's 10-6 mark.
*Note: I will rate the level of need on a scale of 0-10, with 0 representing the 2004 Philadelphia Phillies need for a first baseman (All-Star Jim Thome manning the spot with 2005 Rookie of the Year Ryan Howard knocking on the door) and 10 representing the 2003 Chicago Bears need to find a LT (Qasim Mitchell backing up Aaron Gibson).
1. Middle Linebacker
The reality of the Chicago Bears franchise is very simple: when a dominant middle linebacker is in the fold, the team experiences runs of success. When that player is lacking, the team struggles mightily. The Cover-2 defense - still the most common scheme employed by the team, a fact expected to continue under new defensive coordinator Mel Tucker - only functions with a middle linebacker who can cover wide swaths of the field. The player has to play sideline to sideline, make tackles, and get enough depth in passing situations to break up deep seam routes.
Brian Urlacher and Nick Roach, the two men who manned the spot in 2012, are both free agents. Urlacher is rapidly declining as his body is deteriorating at the end of a magnificent career. He should find himself in Canton in a few years. But his wonderful career history does not change the reality that he no longer resembles the strong force of the defense that he did for a decade. Roach, on the other hand, served as a capable replacement, but he seems likely to find a richer payday than this Bears team can afford.
Level of Need: 10
Possible Solutions: The Bears could choose to re-sign Urlacher or Roach, buying some time to the next long-term answer. If they choose free agency, Green Bay's Brad Jones appears to be the only viable solution as the other free agent middle linebackers tend to be old, run-stuffers, or both.
Should they look to the draft, Georgia's Alec Ogletree will likely be available with the team's top choice at #20. Notre Dame's Manti Te'o seemed like a potentially ideal fit, but his Combine showing has cast serious doubts on his ability to meet the pass coverage demands on the Cover-2. Even though the team does not have a third-round choice this year thanks to the Brandon Marshall acquisition, a fourth or even fifth-round pick could be used on a player like Oregon's Kiko Alonso or Florida's Jonathan Bostic.
Likeliest Outcome: The Bears find a way to fit Urlacher into the plan for another year. A mid-to-late draft choice is used on a depth player.
2. Left Tackle
Duh. The position has been a nightmare since John Tait retired. It's no secret that Jay Cutler's ability to survive a season intact has been significantly limited by a consistently porous offensive line. In the NFL, great lines start with great blindside protectors. While in many ways J'Marcus Webb is a success story as a seventh-round-pick from West Texas A&M, he is undeniably firmly entrenched in the bottom quartile of starting left tackles. It is clear that 2011's top pick Gabe Carimi will not be developing into a left tackle either, although that should not have been expected of the undersized former Badger.
The team is built to win now with a window that is rapidly closing as core defensive players push toward their mid-30s. It's time for an upgrade.
Level of Need: 9.5
Possible Solutions: It's possible to simply keep Webb in place, improving some of the other spots around him. Free agent Jake Long is the biggest fish on the market; interest from the Bears is a foregone conclusion. Two other top options - Denver's Ryan Clady and Kansas City's Branden Albert - were both slapped with the franchise tag, making them nearly untouchable. There are some adequate tackles that would probably represent an upgrade over Webb like Gosder Cherilus from the Lions and Jermon Bushrod of the Saints, but neither are worth the headache of the personnel change or worth the valuable cap space.
The draft offers a pair of elite names, both expected to go in the top-10: potential top pick Luke Joeckel from Texas A&M and Central Michigan's Eric Fisher. When the Bears draft twentieth, Oklahoma's Lane Johnson and Florida State's Manelik Watson should both be available, although Watson may be a bit of a reach. Mid-round prospects such as Oregon's Kyle Long and Virginia's Oday Aboushi represent longer term solutions, but either could slide inside to play guard immediately, an attractive feature for the needy Bears. LSU's Chris Faulk injured his knee at the beginning of the 2012 season, so he could slide and make for an interesting value selection, albeit one with injury concerns.
Likeliest Outcome: Webb still has the left tackle job to start the 2013 season, but he has a youngster pushing him for the job. I would not be surprised if the Bears completed a trade with a team like the 49ers - flush with picks, desperate to win the Super Bowl now - to move down from their first or second round pick in order to acquire a third-rounder to use on Long, Aboushi, or a comparable player.
3. Cornerback
Although I do not expect the Bears to use a particularly valuable asset to acquire depth at cornerback behind Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings, it is definitely needed. D.J. Moore is a lock to leave via free agency. Kelvin Hayden is again a free agent and effectively rebuilt his value on the market with a strong 2012 showing; it's uncertain whether he returns to the team in 2013. While two elite starters makes this area of need less severe than some others, the Bears spend a tremendous amount of time with three non-safety defensive backs on the field, so the third cornerback is more of a starter than the strong side linebacker despite the Bears nominally remaining a 4-3 team.
Level of Need: 8.0
Possible Solutions: Hayden could absolutely be re-signed. The free agent market only features a couple of starters complemented by a number of fringe starters, a great sign for the Bears. Players like the Colts's Jerraud Powers and San Diego's Antoine Cason litter the market, athletes who have not been able to nail down a starting gig.
Alabama's Dee Milliner is headed for top-10 and possibly top-5 selection and Florida State's Xavier Rhodes should stick in the first round. While those two are the only strong bets to be grabbed in the first round, every subsequent round features a glut of cornerbacks including possibly Bears targets including David Amerson from N.C. State in the second round and Wake Forest's Kenny Okoro in the fifth or sixth.
Likeliest Outcome: Given the needs along the offensive line, I expect Emery to fight to keep Hayden, bring in a low-level free agent, and also invest at least one mid-to-late choice on a cornerback.
4. Right Guard
Despite being forced into action at right tackle, Lance Louis has developed into a fine NFL guard. He has become very reliable in the run game, and, while he struggles at tackle in pass protection, he is certainly an adequate pass-blocking right guard. With Roberto Garza nearing retirement at age 33, the interior offensive line needs some consistency and Louis can provide that. Unfortunately, Louis suffered a season-ending MCL injury after a cheap shot from Minnesota's Jared Allen. Louis is a free agent.
Level of Need: 8.0
Possible Solutions: The easiest and most sensible move is for the team to re-sign Louis, hoping that he can return to start the 2013 season. Buffalo's Andy Levitre represents the top guard in free agency; as a left guard in Buffalo, he could certainly play either guard spot with the Bears and represent an enormous upgrade. San Diego's Louis Vasquez is not far behind Levitre as a great but expensive free agent option. Alternatively, if looking for a less expensive choice, the Bears could look at older options like the Jets's Brandon Moore or find a blocked backup like the Patriots's Donald Thomas.
Alabama's Chance Warmack represents one of the draft's best guard prospects in years and he should be a lock for the first round. If Warmack is available at #20, Phil Emery will find it very hard to pass on the mauler. North Carolina's Jonathan Cooper could be an intriguing option in the second round. Although he is seen as a smaller prospect, his blocking is crisp and he could move inside to play center if need be. Warmack's teammate Barrett Jones is tougher to peg as his versatility - Jones was an All-SEC performer at tackle, guard, and center - could send his draft stock soaring up above his value. In the second round or later, however, Jones would be a strong addition. The later rounds offer slower developing prospects like Florida's James Wilson or Ivy League prospect J.C. Tretter from Cornell.
Likeliest Outcome: The Bears can likely re-sign Louis on the cheap side due to his injury, spending more heavily elsewhere while absorbing some risk that Louis is not ready for the start of the season.
5. Left Guard
All of the same issues as right guard, except that the revolving door in 2012 was filled by the likes of colossal disappointment Chris Spencer and undrafted fillers James Brown and Edwin Williams. The issues at the guard spots are interchangeable.
Level of Need: 8.0
Possible Solutions: See above.
Likeliest Outcome: Assuming that Louis is re-signed to cover the right guard position, I expect the Bears to find a very cheap veteran to man left guard, someone like Oakland's Cooper Carlisle or Eben Britton from the Jaguars. It is just as likely that the team grabs a big-time tackle prospect in free agency or the draft, setting about a game of musical chairs for the offensive line positions. For example, if Jake Long is miraculously brought to Chicago, I could see a line of Long-Webb-Garza-Louis-Carimi. However, if the teams chooses Alabama's DJ Fluker to play him at right tackle, the line could be Webb-Carimi-Garza-Louis-Fluker. There are tons of interchangeable parts here. As a result, somewhat ironically, the likeliest outcome at each individual position on the offensive line does not represent the likeliest outcome for the five positions working together.
6. Tight End
As a Michigan-born, Michigan-raised Bears fan with numerous friends who cheer for Michigan State, I was excited to see what the extremely athletic Kellen Davis could do for the Bears. His first two years in Chicago were replete with moments of brightness, instilling only confidence about what he could do in a more open scheme and a full-time job. Unfortunately, KD was a horrendous flop last year, committing fumbles, dropping passes, and whiffing on blocks. A great tight end can be an integral piece of both the passing and rushing attacks; a poor tight end can stifle both. The Bears face a tough decision on Davis. They can let him play out the final year of his contract in 2013 with a cap hit of $3.85M and hope that the contract-year phenomenon works in their favor with a productive season. Or they can cut bait, suffering only a $1.35M cap hit (for $2.5M savings) and enjoying a chance to start over at the position. Matt Spaeth will likely continue to serve as a reliable backup, although he could also be cut ($333K hit; $1.625M savings) to free up some cash. The Bears gave fourth-rounder Evan Rodriguez almost no looks at tight end, but that could be part of his future even though he proved quite adept as a pulling fullback.
Level of Need: 7.5
*Note: 7.5 assumes that the Bears do not bring in an additional wide receiver to play the slot between Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. If they do bring in a third receiver, this drops to a 3.0.
Possible Solutions: Thankfully for the Bears, they will have a choice to make as free agency offers a quartet of viable options: the Giants's Martellus Bennett, the Jets's Dustin Keller, Oakland's Brandon Myers, and, the most intriguing, Tennessee's Jared Cook. The Bears have been linked to Cook already. At just 26 and with some dreadful quarterback play hurting his resume, Cook may be pricier than the Bears would like. However, if the tag is right, he could replace Davis immediately.
The draft likewise offers a few intriguing options. Two northerners, Notre Dame's Tyler Eifert and Michigan State's Dion Sims, could be early round selections, although Eifert is much more of a receiver while Sims is a blocker. Stanford's Zach Ertz is the top name available; he could start immediately as a three-down player. Finally, Florida's Jordan Reed represents the most wide receiver-esque option in the draft. He is essentially the tight end version of Percy Harvin, a tremendous athlete who may not thrive fully in a conventional scheme but excels on broken plays and in space.
Likeliest Outcome: I expect this to be the offensive position with the most turnover. I believe new GM Emery will cut Davis - a holdover from the Angelo regime - and make a splash, most likely with Cook. It's possible that, even with a new starter, Emery could use a later pick on a receiving-only player like UCLA's Joseph Fauria.
7. Quarterback
The Bears are married to Jay Cutler. In my view, that is a good thing as roughly half of the teams in the NFL would prefer Cutler to their own quarterback. Unfortunately, Cutler has taken quite a beating in Chicago, rendering his backup a disproportionately important player. Caleb Hanie failed fantastically in 2011 and Jason Campbell hardly thrilled Bears fans, particularly with his horrendous showing in San Francisco. Currently Cutler is the only quarterback on the roster.
Level of Need: 6.0
Possible Solutions: The Bears could re-sign Campbell who is likely resigned to his role as a backup now. Incredibly, Campbell appears to be the cream of the free agent quarterback crop. Uninspiring names like Brady Quinn are floating on the market, but no free agent backup inspires any confidence.
The draft's top quarterback, West Virginia's Geno Smith, could be available for the Bears at #20, but selecting him would be stunning. A number of less inspiring prospects like USC's Matt Barkley and Syracuse's Ryan Nassib are likely to come off the board in the second or third round, but it is possible that one of that tier could fall to the fourth or fifth.
Likeliest Outcome: There is a good chance that Campbell is re-signed, although the negotiations could be awkward as he deserves a pay cut. The likeliest individual move is the signing of a developmental rookie free agent.
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Let's also take a quick look at positions where need is low.
1. Safety
Chris Conte has grown into a very strong, well above-average NFL safety, showing prowess as a big hitter in the passing game and improving his tackling dramatically. Major Wright has proved to be a solid, average contributor. But safety is not an area of need thanks to last year's third-round pick, Brandon Hardin, returning from a year on Injured Reserve. Long an area of desperate need, safety is finally a position of strength.
2. Kicker
Robbie Gould is a free agent following the 2013 season, but he has been a reliably strong kicker for his entire Bears career and it seems unlikely that the team will be looking for a new kicker any time soon.
3. Punter
Adam Podlesh has been inconsistent in his time in Chicago, but he has shown a solid ability to kick in the cold months along Lake Michigan. While he certainly lacks a booming leg, his angled kicks with great hang time have resulted in very few punts being returned at all, let alone punts being returned for large gains.
4. Defensive End
The Bears will likely need to find another defensive end next offseason, but even with the constant rotating of players along the defensive front, the teams should be just fine in 2013 with the current crop. Julius Peppers continued his stellar play in 2012, although his 2013 cap number of $16.2M climbs to $17.2M in 2014 and finally $19.7M in 2015. It's difficult to envision Peppers sticking around to see that 2015 payday. Thankfully, Corey Wootton finally showed the form that had many thinking he would be a first-round draft pick before injuring his knee in college. Shea McClellin showed plenty of pass rushing flashes, although he looks increasingly like an ideal 3-4 outside linebacker more so than a good fit anywhere in a 4-3. It's possible that his pass rushing will be good enough that he can play every down, but improvements in rush defense are still needed. Israel Idonije was a great contributor in 2012, but he can probably get himself one more solid guaranteed sum in a contract, a deal likely to come from a team outside of Chicago due to the Bears's cap situation.
5. Defensive Tackle
Henry Melton finally played the explosive season I had been hoping to see in 2012. The team wisely applied the franchise tag to Melton, a move that was only necessary after it foolishly allowed him to play out the final year of his rookie contract while simultaneously on the cusp of the elite tier of NFL defensive tackles. 2011 second-rounder Stephen Paea showed nice improvements as a sophomore and can likely be counted on to bring more to the table in 2013. The 1-2 punch certainly needs a third tackle to spell them, but compared to the other areas of need on the team, third defensive tackle is exceptionally low.
6. Outside Linebacker
The Bears definitely need somebody who can play alongside Lance Briggs and whoever mans middle linebacker. It's just that this player is decreasingly important in a league where nickel packages have become the norm. This is also true for the Bears. Briggs continues to be a dominant force on the weak side and the team has adequately filled the strong side role for the last decade with a revolving door of players like Hunter Hillenmeyer, Pisa Tinoisamoa, Nick Roach, and even Geno Hayes. This kind of player just is not terribly difficult to find.
7. Wide Receiver
A position of need for my entire life, Emery decided that, to be a functioning offense in the 21st century, the Bears needed a couple of new, big receivers. With Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall manning the outside and Earl Bennett fitting into the correct role as a great #3 receiver instead of overmatched as a #2 receiver, the corps is in great shape. Eric Weems can fill in from time to time, but mostly focuses on being a special teams ace. The team could take a late flyer on an athlete like Michigan's Denard Robinson or TCU's Josh Boyce, but there is no need here.
8. Center
Although Roberto Garza is on the down slope of his career and acquiring a center-of-the-future certainly makes sense this offseason, he is still solid enough that replacing him is not necessary. It is possible that Garza will not be brought back when his contract expires after this season, but he will have a starting job waiting for him in August.
9. Right Tackle
It seems strange to have this position listed in the "low need" section, but it is the proper rating. If (when) the team acquires a new left tackle, J'Marcus Webb should be moved to right tackle where he should be more of an asset than a liability. With Gabe Carimi also in the fold, right tackle would be set. This is not to say that I would be upset if the team added a strong right tackle by signing Minnesota's Phil Loadholt or drafting Alabama's DJ Fluker; either addition would be fantastic. I just do not expect this situation to play out this way.
10. Running Back
Matt Forte just signed a long-term extension and backup Michael Bush looked strong in the first year of a four-year deal prior to an injury last season. Nothing more than the minimum should be spent on the third back here.
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