Shortstop
2012 Overview: Whereas third base experienced abject failure in 2012, shortstop was mercifully a very different story. Unsurprisingly, it all begins with Starlin Castro. Castro stumbled through the worst season of his professional career, turning in a career low batting average and on-base percentage while simultaneously recording his highest strikeout rate since Rookie ball in 2008. Sounds like he was quite poor. In reality, Castro's underwhelming 2012 is just a testament to the absurd success of his 2010 and 2011 campaigns. Castro produced a .283/.323/.430/.753 line with 25 stolen bases, 14 home runs, and a .147 ISO. Put together, Castro managed a 99 wRC+, almost perfectly average among all MLB players. His defense continued to improve as he was just one run below average at shortstop. For an age-22 season, it was yet another rousing success.
Non-prospect Diory Hernandez manned the position for most of 2012 at Iowa and the 28-year-old was predictably awful. Jonathan Mota got a few cracks in at Iowa and at Tennessee, but he suffered an elbow injury and missed most of the year. He offers only organizational depth.
A much more exciting prospect, Junior Lake was the primary shortstop in Tennessee and he continued to polarize fans and scouts with his 2012 year. The knock on Lake has routinely been that his game is "noisy" in that he has a lot of unnecessary movement while at the plate and his mechanics while fielding at shortstop are messy. Regardless, Castro's friend spent his full 22-year-old season at Tennessee producing a .279/.341/.432/.773 line with 10 home runs, 21 stolen bases and a strong 117 wRC+. He kept on rolling in the Dominican Winter League with a .312/.382/.474/.856 line, 5 home runs, and 11 stolen bases in 44 games. The 6'3", 215 lbs. athlete was recently moved to third base moving forward and he will likely get some time in the outfield. Additionally, some have called for a move to the bullpen so that the team can utilize his electric arm. Regardless of his role, Lake is an intriguing player to watch in that he could just as easily spend a decade playing next to Castro as he could never make it to Chicago.
The run of interesting prospects continued at Daytona with Arismendy Alcantara. Alcantara played all of 2012 at just 20 years old and managed a very strong .302/.339/.447/.786 line with 7 home runs and 25 stolen bases in just 29 attempts. The lean switch-hitter should fill out his 5'10" frame a bit more, but he will likely never develop a power component to his game, so he will need to survive on strong batting average, some speed, and his glove.
2012 32nd-round-pick Timothy Saunders had an impressive debut as a professional. The Division III Marietta College star who led his college to back-to-back National Championships breezed through the Rookie League on his way to Peoria and even a couple of weeks at Daytona. He put together an explosive .381/.431/.536/.967 line with 5 home runs and 17 stolen bases in just 49 games. He will need to reproduce strong numbers to develop more believers, but a hot start is always encouraging.
The team's 2011 top choice, Javier Baez did not disappoint in his full-season league debut, obliterating Midwest League pitching to the tune of .333/.383/.596/.979 with 12 home runs and 20 steals in just 57 games. He struggled to close out his season at Daytona, but the strong showing from the then-19-year-old at Peoria did nothing to dim his very bright prospect star.
2012 7th-round-pick Stephen Bruno didn't make it out of the Northwest League, but he certainly made his time there count, winning the batting title with a .361/.442/.496/.938 showing in 67 games. Unfortunately, Bruno showed very little power and no speed, so he will need his batting average to carry him in his career.
Finally, after a great showing in the Rookie League in 2011, Marco Hernandez regressed dramatically in 2012 with only a .660 OPS to show for his efforts. Given the competition in the system, Hernandez's glove will need to be exceptional to advance.
Non-prospect Diory Hernandez manned the position for most of 2012 at Iowa and the 28-year-old was predictably awful. Jonathan Mota got a few cracks in at Iowa and at Tennessee, but he suffered an elbow injury and missed most of the year. He offers only organizational depth.
A much more exciting prospect, Junior Lake was the primary shortstop in Tennessee and he continued to polarize fans and scouts with his 2012 year. The knock on Lake has routinely been that his game is "noisy" in that he has a lot of unnecessary movement while at the plate and his mechanics while fielding at shortstop are messy. Regardless, Castro's friend spent his full 22-year-old season at Tennessee producing a .279/.341/.432/.773 line with 10 home runs, 21 stolen bases and a strong 117 wRC+. He kept on rolling in the Dominican Winter League with a .312/.382/.474/.856 line, 5 home runs, and 11 stolen bases in 44 games. The 6'3", 215 lbs. athlete was recently moved to third base moving forward and he will likely get some time in the outfield. Additionally, some have called for a move to the bullpen so that the team can utilize his electric arm. Regardless of his role, Lake is an intriguing player to watch in that he could just as easily spend a decade playing next to Castro as he could never make it to Chicago.
The run of interesting prospects continued at Daytona with Arismendy Alcantara. Alcantara played all of 2012 at just 20 years old and managed a very strong .302/.339/.447/.786 line with 7 home runs and 25 stolen bases in just 29 attempts. The lean switch-hitter should fill out his 5'10" frame a bit more, but he will likely never develop a power component to his game, so he will need to survive on strong batting average, some speed, and his glove.
2012 32nd-round-pick Timothy Saunders had an impressive debut as a professional. The Division III Marietta College star who led his college to back-to-back National Championships breezed through the Rookie League on his way to Peoria and even a couple of weeks at Daytona. He put together an explosive .381/.431/.536/.967 line with 5 home runs and 17 stolen bases in just 49 games. He will need to reproduce strong numbers to develop more believers, but a hot start is always encouraging.
The team's 2011 top choice, Javier Baez did not disappoint in his full-season league debut, obliterating Midwest League pitching to the tune of .333/.383/.596/.979 with 12 home runs and 20 steals in just 57 games. He struggled to close out his season at Daytona, but the strong showing from the then-19-year-old at Peoria did nothing to dim his very bright prospect star.
2012 7th-round-pick Stephen Bruno didn't make it out of the Northwest League, but he certainly made his time there count, winning the batting title with a .361/.442/.496/.938 showing in 67 games. Unfortunately, Bruno showed very little power and no speed, so he will need his batting average to carry him in his career.
Finally, after a great showing in the Rookie League in 2011, Marco Hernandez regressed dramatically in 2012 with only a .660 OPS to show for his efforts. Given the competition in the system, Hernandez's glove will need to be exceptional to advance.
2013 and Beyond: Castro has showed yet again that his success is legitimate and he is here to stay. With a 7-year, $60M extension that keeps him under team control through at least 2019 (2020 club option), Cubs fans should get used to watching Castro blossom. Lake presents a more interesting follow as he has so many potential situations in which to find himself a year from now: preparing for a full-time infield role with the Cubs, fighting for a backup job, knocking on the door at AAA, or learning to pitch. There are so many possibilities. Saunders's debut was so strong that his 2013 bears monitoring to see if he truly is a diamond in the rough or simply enjoyed a hot pair of months as a collegiate rookie.
While the other names carry some interest, the most important player in the minors is Baez, certainly among the shortstops and possibly for the entire organization. His bat is extremely loud and could hold 25+ home run power in addition to high batting average. He will need to develop a more complete approach at the plate. If that part of his game comes along, he will remain on track to be a monstrous, middle-of-the-order bat from a non-first base infield position as early as 2015.
While the other names carry some interest, the most important player in the minors is Baez, certainly among the shortstops and possibly for the entire organization. His bat is extremely loud and could hold 25+ home run power in addition to high batting average. He will need to develop a more complete approach at the plate. If that part of his game comes along, he will remain on track to be a monstrous, middle-of-the-order bat from a non-first base infield position as early as 2015.
Overall Perception: An emerging young star in Chicago, an elite prospect at Daytona, and a couple of interesting raw prospects? This is about as good as it gets.
Final Rating: 9.5
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