Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Chicago Cubs: The Corner Outfielders

Corner Outfield
2012 Overview: 2012 was a very respectable year in the corners for the Cubs. Alfonso Soriano enjoyed a resurgence in left field posting a solid .262/.322/.499/.821 line with 32 home runs while playing 151 games. In right, newcomer David DeJesus returned to his historically solid, unspectacular form with a .263/.350/.403/.753 line; he also led the team in innings played in center field despite starting twice as many games in right. Although the production was a far cry from the days when Sammy Sosa and Moises Alou manned the corners at Wrigley, it was nonetheless a middle-of-the-pack group.

The situation on the farm was much less encouraging. Acquired in the Sean Marshall trade and immediately added to the 40-man roster, Dave Sappelt played an underwhelming season at Iowa although it did end in Chicago. The athletic righty managed just a .266/.314/.376/.690 line with 7 home runs and 15 stolen bases in the full AAA season prior to an improved .275/.351/.449/.800 line over 69 major league at-bats. Sappelt's total line hardly tells the entire story: he has shown extreme splits over his career depending on whether he is facing a right-handed or left-handed pitcher. Since reaching AAA full-time in 2011, Sappelt has a .255/.310/.369/.679 line versus righties compared to .339/.393/.466/.859 versus righties; his walk rate is very similar for both, but he cuts his strikeout rate in half when facing righties. He should be able to carve out a career as a platoon corner outfielder, serving as an athletic reserve.

His companion at Iowa, Ty Wright, trodded through another decent but uninspiring year with a .295/.351/.451/.802 combined line between Iowa and Tennessee. Unfortunately, Wright turned 28 last month, so he hardly constitutes a prospect. Jim Aducci enjoyed basically the same year, split between Tennessee and Iowa with strong on-base skills but little power; Adduci is now in the Texas system.

The Tennessee lineup featured a trio of fringe prospects, two of whom could crack a major league roster in the next few years, none of whom project as regulars at the major league level. The group is led by Michael Burgess, a former supplemental first-round pick of the Nationals that came to the Cubs in the Tom Gorzelanny trade. Burgess is much like a mirror of Sappelt, though less athletic: he is a strong lefty with very good splits against right-handed pitching but an inability to hit left-handers. He produced a .267/.356/.450/.806 line against righties compared to .230/.329/.324/.654 versus lefties, almost perfectly in line with his career splits. Burgess turned 24 in October and has been a one-step-at-a-time player as a pro, but he had shown enough with his bat to stay in consideration as a platoon partner for Sappelt in the coming years. However, Houston selected him the AAA portion of the Rule 5 Draft.

Jae-Hoon Ha is a very different player, a wiry scrapper who projects as a major league caliber defender with an iffy bat. Ha has yet to show a discernable split over his career, producing very pedestrian offensive lines with a bit of speed, decent batting average, average on-base ability, and little power. However, he still has room to grow leaving his prospect star dim but alight.

The final member of Tennessee's outfield at the end of the season, Nelson Perez, a burly but stalled 25-year-old lefty, again enjoyed great success at Daytona before fumbling his time at Tennessee. His combined line shows a superb walk rate, great power, and a complete inability to make contact versus AA pitching.

Daytona's corners were manned by a pair of non-prospects. Powerless John Andreoli is nonetheless an on-base machine with prodigious speed. Despite his .289 batting average and just one home run on the year, Andreoli managed a .402 on-base percentage via 75 walks and amassed 55 stolen bases. Given his 6'1", 215 lbs. frame, power would be an expected part of his profile but it simply is not. He has the look of a base stealing specialist as the 25th man on a playoff roster. Elieser Bonne signed as a 24-year-old rookie from Cuba in 2011 and he struggled mightily in his full-season debut at Daytona with a .275/.293/.360/.652 line.

In Peoria, a revolving door of men occupied the corner spots. 20-year-old Oliver Zapata played the full season for the Chiefs, producing no useful results outside of his 19 stolen bases. The slight switch-hitter likely has no future. Big Yasiel Balaguert produced similar results, without the speed. He is unlikely to make an impact, even having just turned 20. Bijan Rademacher very quickly moved from the rookie league through Boise on his way to Peoria where he hit a wall in his debut season. He also has a non-prospect profile.

Unlike the trio listed above, the organization's best acquisition of 2012 ended his season in Peoria. Signed to a nine-year, $30M contract just before the new collective bargaining agreement's signing bonus penalties kicked in, Cuban Jorge Soler did not disappoint the Peoria viewers. After an up-and-down debut in Arizona, Soler jumped to Peoria and, in 20 games, put together a .338/.398/.463/.832 line with 3 home runs and 4 stolen bases. In just 34 professional games, Soler has 5 home runs and 12 stolen bases to go with his .369 on-base percentage and .164 ISO. Soler's prototype frame at 6'4", 215 lbs. and his big league approach at the plate has the Cubs thinking big.

Boise's outfield was comprised of a handful of unknown, underwhelming players. Dong-Yub Kim, a big righty from South Korea, showed good power, but had a preposterous 33/4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 112 at-bats. Big Xavier Batista showed a bit of power, but had an even more preposterous 54 strikeouts in 167 at-bats. Shawon Dunston, Jr. scuttled through his time at Boise with just a .254 on-base percentage, although he did begin his professional career with a solid showing in the rookie league where he showed good patience and some pop. Trey Martin played some good baseball between the rookie league and Boise, although he did little to give rise to much excitement as a 19-year-old with a .270/.318/.377/.696 line in Boise.

2013 and Beyond: Although Soriano has repeatedly stated his desire to close his career as a Cub, it is overwhelming more likely that his major contribution to the team comes in the form of a prospect or two that he brings to the organization in a mid-season trade. If Soriano is healthy, there is no reason he cannot produce another strong season with excellent power, little speed, and below-average on-base percentage. DeJesus may fit the same mold, although he will not be bringing back a return in a trade as a corner outfielder. With the club's addition of platoon mates Nate Schierholtz and Scott Hairston in right field, DeJesus will man center field full time. Schierholtz and Hairston are the ultimate platoon with both showing great offensive ability against opposite-handed pitching and futility against same-handed pitchers.

The most important development for the organization in 2013 will be that of Soler. If the athletic righty continue to shows the mature approach, strong defense, and good on-base ability that complements his powerful frame so well, he could push for a major league job in 2014. At just 20 in Daytona, he has room for error, but he does not appear to need it.

Overall Perception: This is an interesting if uninspiring position group. The major league corner outfielders complement each other nicely, even if none of them figure to be major contributors in a couple of years. Soler is an elite prospect, but beyond him the system is barren, save for Sappelt as a potential reserve.

Final Rating: 3.0

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Third Base
Shortstop
Second Base
First Base
Catcher

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