1. Detroit
Projected Wins: 101
Explanation: The Tigers were the most talented team in the 2012 A.L. Central even though they had to hold off a furious charge from the surprising White Sox to win the division crown. 2013 should be much easier. They feature MLB's best starting pitching with a true ace - reigning MVP Justin Verlander - followed by three well above-average starters in Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez. Youngsters Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly bring up the rear in more than acceptable fashion. As for the position players, only left fielder Andy Dirks figures to be below average at his position and even Dirks will face some competition from within the organization as Avisail Garcia made some noise last year. The heart of the order is elite and the lineup depth is baseball's best with the return of Victor Martinez, a full season of Omar Infante, and the addition of Torii Hunter. 2013 will not be tense until October.
Player to Watch: I have one player for the other 29 teams. For the Tigers, the "player" to watch is the closer, whoever that is. After prospect Bruce Rondon was clearly overmatched in spring training, the team decided to go by committee in the closer's role. While that was the right decision given the team's personnel, uncertainty in the bullpen has been the Achilles heel for a number of teams. If Detroit is to avoid the same fate, one of Al Albuquerque, Joaquin Benoit, Phil Coke, or Octavio Dotel will need to grab the reins.
2. Cleveland
Projected Wins: 83
Explanation: When the Indians traded away Shin-Soo Choo, conventional wisdom was that the team was giving up on the 2013 season. However, they quickly snapped up Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn to supplement a lineup that already included good regulars in Jason Kipnis, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Carlos Santana. The lineup should be an above-average group, especially considering the enormous defensive upgrade of Bourn replacing Choo in the outfield. The pitching staff features a bunch of good names, but as a group, they are likely to be slightly below-average. Ubaldo Jimenez has been a tremendous disappointment since the Indians acquired him from Colorado, and Justin Masterson is miscast as an ace. Super prospect Trevor Bauer could be that missing ace if he reaches Cleveland this year, but he likely needs some more seasoning and needs to get past the personality issues that got him shipped out of Arizona just a year and a half after being drafted third overall.
Player to Watch: Scott Kazmir. The former prized Mets prospect and Rays ace fell off the baseball map when he completely lost his ability to throw strikes. Kazmir won the fifth starting job in spring training, and a productive season from him could keep Cleveland in contention. Unfortunately, it is likelier that he will not be able to keep his job.
3. Chicago
Projected Wins: 79
Explanation: The White Sox could very well contend in 2013. They have enough offensive depth to win lots of games with a roster full of players who could be above-average or better. Unfortunately, the roster is also full of risk. Soul-of-the-team Paul Konerko is 37. Adam Dunn and Alex Rios were both horrendous in 2011. Jeff Keppinger and Alejandro de Aza both enjoyed career years in 2012. Tyler Flowers is unproven and Gordon Beckham's career could fall apart at a moment's notice. Chris Sale looks like an ace, but his delivery screams of elbow trouble. Jake Peavy has a well chronicled history of back issues that nearly forced his retirement. Gavin Floyd and John Danks have both been disappointments since emerging as possible top-of-the-rotation starters. While the bullpen looks very good, the farm system lacks the prospects needed to pull off a big move. Without that trading ability, the odds of a flop or injury that cripples the team is just too great.
Player to Watch: de Aza. The center fielder played wonderfully in limited action in 2011, then posted a strong full season in 2012. However, he showed very little in his career before 2011, so his age-29 season in 2013 is essential maintaining a solid career trajectory.
4. Kansas City
Projected Wins: 71
Explanation: I have been very critical of the James Shields trade from Kansas City's perspective. Shields is a very good starting pitcher, far and away the best Kansas City has had since Zack Greinke departed via trade. However, at the cost of middle-of-the-order, MLB-ready bat Wil Myers, two years of Shields just doesn't make sense given that the rest of the Royals roster isn't close enough to competing for the playoffs. To be fair, the lineup is very solid. Given the potential for breakout campaigns from Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Lorenzo Cain, the offense could be above-average even with Chris Getz and Jeff Francouer getting too many plate appearances. Unfortunately for Royals fans, Shields is the only average starter in the group. The horribly overpaid Jeremy Guthrie is a subpar second option and Ervin Santana is at a career crossroads, hardly an ideal option as a third banana for a playoff team. There just isn't enough pitching here to justify the high cost of the Shields trade.
Player to Watch: Cain. The 27-year-old center fielder flashed some special skills as a rookie in 2010, skills that made him a key part of the Greinke trade. He finally has his shot at a full-time major league job this year and has the skills to be an impact contributor. The team cannot compete without a big year from him.
5. Minnesota
Projected Wins: 59
Explanation: The heart of the Twins lineup could resemble that of many playoff teams with Joe Mauer followed by Josh Willingham and Justin Morneau. The rest of the lineup is uninspiring, although Ryan Doumit could blast his fair share of home runs. Unfortunately for the Twins, pitching is essential and the team has no even average starters. It is possible that Mike Pelfrey or Vance Worley could rediscover some of their magic from a few years ago, but outside of that pair, there are not even arms for dreaming.
Player to Watch: Aaron Hicks. The Twins aggressively gave the 23-year-old the everyday center field job to start the season and promptly watched him start the season an incredible 2-for-43 with 20 strikeouts. The 20 strikeouts tied the Cubs' Brett Jackson's major league record, just ahead of a quartet of very good ballplayers: Matt Williams, Russell Branyan, Ray Durham, and Giancarlo Stanton. It is far too early to throw in the towel for Hicks, but some signs of life would be welcome for a team expected to be mired in years of losing.
No comments:
Post a Comment