Most predictions come out before the season starts. Now one week deep into the six month baseball season, fans have had a chance to see some games and get a sense for what each team has to offer. With that background, let's take a look at how each team can expect to do in 2013.
We'll begin with the National League West, a division that has captured two of the past three World Series titles.
* - Denotes wild card
NL West
1. Arizona
Projected Wins: 91
Explanation: Picking any team ahead of the Dodgers may be surprising to folks. Picking a team over the Dodgers and the defending champions just seems crazy. However, a deeper inquiry shows that the Diamondbacks have very strong pitching with a deep rotation and an even deeper bullpen. The offense is similarly deep with solid player following solid player, even if the unit lacks a big bat after the Justin Upton trade. These types of teams tend to thrive in 162-game seasons.
Player to Watch: Shortstop Cliff Pennington. Pennington has the fielding ability to stick in the major leagues as a decent starter, but his offense was dreadful in 2012. If he can return to his 2009-11 levels, the Arizona lineup would be without a hole.
2. *Los Angeles
Projected Wins: 90
Explanation: The Dodgers have spent like crazy and on mostly good talent. But paychecks don't equal wins. The rotation features a pair of true aces at the top in Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, complemented by the very good Chad Billingsley. However, that trio is followed by a number of key question marks. Hyun-jin Ryu comes over from South Korea with no big league experience, Josh Beckett appears to be at a career crossroads, and there is frustration among Ted Lilly and Aaron Harang that they need to compete for starting spots. Dissension could be an issue. The offense is a much, much larger problem. While Matt Kemp-Adrian Gonzalez-Andre Ethier is an enviable heart of the order, they are surrounded by the unreliable, injury-prone Carl Crawford and the truly dreadful Nick Punto and Luis Cruz. The Dodgers are plenty willing to spend, but they're going to have a hard time buying a left side of the infield mid-season.
Player to Watch: Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez is expected to return in late May and with Punto holding down third base, he cannot get back soon enough for the Dodgers. Hanley has not been an impact player over the last two seasons so it is unlikely that he will be tremendous upon his return. But even solid production could be the difference for the Dodgers making it to October.
3. San Francisco
Projected Wins: 85
Explanation: The Giants will still pitch well in 2013 with Matt Cain, Ryan Vogelsong, and Madison Bumgarner leading a rotation that includes contract-year former aces Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito. The bullpen looks solid too. But the offense just won't be enough in the 2013 NL West given the improved rosters in Arizona and Los Angeles.
Player to Watch: Lincecum. Remember the last time a two-time Cy Young Award winner hit free agency with so much uncertainty about his future?
4. Colorado
Projected Wins: 71
Explanation: The Rockies have a playoff-caliber lineup with a pair of stars, Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, surrounded by a pair of good outfielders, Dexter Fowler and Michael Cuddyer. Unfortunately for the offense, the pitching may be the worst in the league with only closer Rafael Betancourt having any real value.
Player to Watch: Jorge de la Rosa. The 32-year-old de la Rosa put together a pair of nice years in 2008 and 2009, but he has made just 33 starts over the last three years. An impending free agent, he has a tremendous amount at stake for a middling team. Those players are interesting to track.
5. San Diego
Projected Wins: 67
Explanation: San Diego lacks impact talent. Between the rotation and the lineup, only third baseman Jedd Gyorko and center fielder Cameron Maybin have loud tools. There are a couple of decent prospects in the system but no big players expected to impact the big league club this season. Huston Street may want to keep his bags packed.
Player to Watch: Maybin. The former elite prospect is a valuable defender in San Diego's voluminous center field, but his offensive game took a step back in 2012. At 26, Maybin needs a power spike or on-base bump to round out as a player.
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