*NOTE: With the pitching staff, I am going to be much more selective with which players receive mention. While every offensive player who had more than 100 plate appearances was named in the prior posts, there are simply too many pitchers to go through all of them in one post. As such, I will focus on those with a more realistic chance to make the majors and those who produced big statistical seasons.
Starting Pitcher
2012 Overview: A look at the 2012 starting pitching statistics is the most accurate snapshot of the Cubs. Just two pitchers started more than 25 games. The first, new ace Jeff Samardzija, enjoyed an excellent campaign allowing 157 hits and 56 walks over 174.2 innings, good for a 1.22 WHIP and complemented by 180 strikeouts. His 2.9 WAR tied him for 34th among starting pitchers with Jered Weaver and Rick Porcello. However, his xFIP of 3.38 - xFIP is his expected ERA based on his other rate stats - ranks 14th, tied with Gio Gonzalez and just one spot behind Justin Verlander.
The second, lefty Travis Wood, proved to be a big acquisition from the Reds in the Sean Marshall trade. Wood issued more walks than is ideal over his 156 innings, totaling 54. However, he allowed just 133 hits and tallied 119 strikeouts, good for a strong 1.20 WHIP. Wood's potential fatal flaw could be his home runs allowed as he gave up 25 in 2012.
The rotation had a much different look at the beginning of the season with Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Paul Maholm, and Chris Volstad all slated for jobs. At the end of his long tenure with the Cubs, Dempster was superb, production that the team parlayed into a mid-season trade to the Rangers for a pair of minor leaguers, 3B Christian Villanueva and SP Kyle Hendricks. Many Cub fans will wonder what might have been after Dempster nixed a reported deal that would have sent him to the Braves for elite prospect SP Randall Delgado.
Garza again pitched very well when healthy, but the injury bug bit him hard in 2012, limiting him to 18 starts. The same elbow injury that ended his season has him on the disabled list to start 2013 and could seriously limit his trade market mid-season. Nonetheless, he remains arguably the best starter on the team and a key part of the franchise going forward, whether by himself or in the form of the players obtained in his trade.
Maholm was surprisingly excellent in 2012, using great command and throwing piles of strikes as a means of making up for his lack of strikeout stuff. In July, the team sent him to Atlanta along with Reed Johnson in exchange for SP Arodys Vizcaino and RP fodder Jaye Chapman. Vizcaino figures to be a key part of the future for the Cubs, be it as a starter or a high-leverage reliever. He is currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and should make a few appearances in Chicago in the last third of the season. Vizcaino's elite fastball and strong, power curveball should enable him to be an impact arm when he returns from injury.
Finally, Volstad suffered through a fantastically awful year. The former first-rounder managed just 61 strikeouts in 111.1 innings while allowing opponents to hit .306. His command was so poor that it called his career into question.
Randy Wells was also expected to compete for a rotation job, but the wheels came off for the steady righty in 2012. He was designated for assignment in July and signed by Texas in December.
In the second half of the season, the Cubs gave 29 starts to Justin Germano, Chris Rusin, Brooks Raley, Jason Berken, and Casey Coleman. Needless to say, those games ended poorly with Germano losing a stunning 10 games in 12 starts and Raley surrendering an 8.14 ERA.
Given the abject failure of spot starters in 2012, in comes as no surprise that Iowa's rotation was horrendous. Although Seth McClung mesmerized with his complete inability to get outs (3-15, 6.35 ERA, 1.81 WHIP), only Casey Coleman managed a WHIP below 1.40 among regular starters.
The story was not drastically better at Tennessee, but the Smokies did produce strong seasons from two starters. Nicholas Struck, a 39th-round-pick in the 2009 draft, continued his progression after struggling in his late-season call-up to Iowa in 2011. Struck threw 155.2 innings, allowing 140 hits and 44 walks with 123 strikeouts, good for a 1.18 WHIP. He also allowed only 14 home runs. He lacks a plus pitch, but features a low-90s fastball with sinking action, a decent slider, and a good change-up with solid command of all three pitches. Struck was joined by Eric Jokisch, a lanky lefty from Northwestern. Jokisch showed little strikeout ability at Tennessee, but managed to allow just 86 hits over 105 innings while issuing 33 walks after a mid-season call-up from Daytona. Jokisch's 1.13 WHIP was clearly the best among starters, although it's hard to project the soft-tossing lefty as anything more than a Doug Davis-type.
At the trade deadline, the team acquired Jacob Brigham from the Rangers in a deal that was conditioned on the health of Brigham's elbow; when the elbow flared up in the off-season, the teams moved to Plan B in which Brigham was returned to Texas for Barret Loux. Loux's story is already a twisting saga. He nearly signed with the Detroit Tigers in 2007 but opted to attend Texas A&M instead. The move paid off as he was chosen sixth overall in the 2010 draft by the Arizona Diamondbacks. However, his physical revealed a torn labrum and elbow damage that would likely require surgery, so Arizona refused to offer him a contract. Major League Baseball declared Loux a free agent and he signed with Texas. Loux was exceptional for AA-Frisco, winning the Texas League Pitcher of the Year award by going 14-1 in 127 innings, allowing 120 hits and 41 walks with 100 strikeouts. The 6'5", 230 lbs. righty features a low-90s fastball complemented by a deep but uninspiring group of off-speed pitches in a curveball, slider, and change-up. Unfortunately, many reports indicate that his arm ailments have begun to zap his fastball of its life, rendering him a ticking time bomb with a middle relief projection. If the arm somehow stays healthy, he could still have some projection.
Down at Daytona, the rotation pumped out a couple more interesting names. Lefty Austin Kirk, a 3rd-rounder in 2009, allowed just 138 hits across 152.2 innings at Daytona and Tennessee although he struggled with control in issuing 60 walks. At 22, he represents the club's best left-handed prospect. After being stretched across three levels in 2011, Matt Loosen spent all of 2012 in Daytona and delivered a fine year in 112.2 innings, with 83 hits and 46 walks allowed and 110 strikeouts. However, the fly ball pitcher figures to struggle as he climbs the organizational ladder and encounters more power hitters. 2010 40th-rounder P.J. Francescon enjoyed an excellent start to the year at Peoria which he followed with a solid performance at Daytona in the second half. Over 137.1 innings, he allowed just 111 hits and 38 walks, although his 95 strikeouts suggest that his stuff has a very low ceiling. Finally, signed as a 22-year-old Cuban free agent in 2011, Frank Del Valle features an explosive fastball in a 5'11" frame that he used to avoid hits in 2012. In his full-season debut in the US, Del Valle allowed a stunning 70 hits in 99.1 innings and while his 30 walks are more than ideal, the total is not frightening either. He should be pushed to remain in the rotation in 2013, but, at the very least, he may have a future as a reliever with a mid-90s fastball and hard curveball from the left side.
Two other pitchers who spent only a short time with the Daytona Cubs nonetheless deserve mention and could be parts of the future. The first, Kyle Hendricks, was acquired from the Rangers in the Ryan Dempster deadline trade. An 8th-round pick in 2011, the 6'3" righty has showed tremendous control as a professional. Since making his debut, Hendricks has issued just 24 walks in 183.1 innings while allowed 164 hits over the same span. Hendricks lacks a sexy arsenal with a high-80s fastball, developing cutter, and three solid off-speed pitches: a change-up, slider, and curveball. Despite a relatively low ceiling, his command thus far indicates that Hendricks may be a back-of-the-rotation option for a few years. He will play 2013 at 23 years old, so Tennessee presents a key challenge in his career. Joining him at Tennessee but having made his 2012 appearances at Daytona, Rob Whitenack exploded onto the prospect scene with an excellent 2011 that was cut short for Tommy John surgery. Prior to the procedure, Whitenack lacked a high-strikeout armory, but consistently limited hits with a low walk rate. Perhaps his best ability is inducing ground ball contact, thus avoiding home runs. Over four minor league seasons, Whitenack has allowed just 13 home runs in 309.1 innings. Unfortunately, his return from surgery went horribly in 2012, so the hope here is that Whitenack - who may never recover his mid-90s fastball - can get his fastball moving well again and reach his back-of-the-rotation projection.
Peoria lacked any truly inspiring starting pitching in 2012 with only a pair of arms deserving mention. The first, Gerardo Concepcion, is notable mostly because it is widely believed that his signing helped the team to sign fellow defector Jorge Soler. Concepcion was fantastically awful in 2012 with a 1.91 WHIP. The other starter, Ben Wells, was a 7th-round selection in 2011 and threw just 44 innings at Peoria. Nonetheless, in a system lacking projectible arms, Wells is near the top of the group. He has shown good control of a solid group of pitches featuring a low-90s sinking fastball, slider, splitter, and change-up. Wells's calling card is the sinking action on the fastball and he induced plenty of ground outs in 2012. He did have some elbow issues in 2012, so he needs to stay healthy in 2013 to log innings. His development is a bit more important than most pitchers due to a bizarre contractual clause that requires the Cubs to add him to their 40-man roster in 2013 despite his not being eligible for the Rule 5 Draft until December 2014. Hopefully he enjoys a strong year and makes that decision easier.
Sadly, no pitchers of note emerged from Boise and the season in Arizona is so short, any performances there are hard to evaluate.
Fortunately, a handful of names from the 2012 draft and one from the 2011 draft offer some hope. Drafted in the 14-round and signed away from a University of North Carolina football commitment for $2.5M, Dillon Maples has arguably the best stuff of any prospect in the system. He has a boring low-to-mid-90s fastball in his 6'2" frame complemented by a power curveball. His command is very poor at this point due to a couple of injuries that have delayed his development. However, he is still only 21 this year, so a healthy season of logging innings can ignite his prospect star.
After drafting just two pitchers in the first 11 rounds of the 2011 draft - reliever Tony Zych and South African starter Tayler Scott - the new regime saw the desperate need to add pitching talent to the system and responded by following Albert Almora's selection with seven consecutive pitchers in the 2012 draft. Two high schoolers grabbed with the later of those picks - big righty Ryan McNeil and soft-tossing lefty Anthony Prieto - figure to have long development curves and mid-level ceilings. Unsurprisingly, the first three pitchers selected, two of them high schoolers as well, offer much higher projections.
Taken in the first compensation round, California teen Paul Blackburn has a nice three pitch mix with a mid-90s fastball supplemented by a good change-up and curveball. While Blackburn is raw, his ceiling is very high. With an even higher ceiling but even rawer, Duane Underwood came to the Cubs from a Georgia high school featuring a huge fastball and a pair of developing off-speed pitches. Underwood will not move quickly, but his development could be fun to follow as his fastball has big potential with a relatively fluid delivery. Finally, the team's top pitching pick, Missouri State's Pierce Johnson scared some teams with a pre-draft forearm strain, but he was healthy enough to make 6 post-draft starts for the Cubs with good results, showing strikeout ability while inducing lots of ground balls. Johnson also has a high ceiling and could move quickly as a collegiate arm.
2013 and Beyond: 2013 figures to be another year of transition for the team. The front office completely revamped the rotation in the off-season, bringing in Scott Feldman, Carlos Villanueva, and injury reclamation project Scott Baker to fill out the group. The centerpiece acquisition, fireballer Edwin Jackson, figures to slide into the middle of the rotation and hold down a solid spot for the next four years. It seems likely that, yet again, the team will look to sell off useful parts at the trade deadline with most of the baseball world focused on Garza. The main problem for the Cubs is that, depending on how soon the team hopes to compete for the postseason, very few impact arms are available in free agency. Garza will likely be the most sought after player on the market this year, so the decision to trade or extend him likely speaks volumes about the team's 2014 outlook.
The team recently nabbed another mid-level prospect in Cuban Armando Rivero. Rivero throws a low-to-mid-90s fastball with some downward movement complemented well by a splitter and a slurvey breaking ball. A key issue: because he is 25 and has already played in the top Cuban league for four seasons, his $3.1M bonus was exempt from the team's bonus pool.
Overall Perception: Starting rotations are a fickle beast. Because of this, the value of a top-of-the-rotation stud has been made clear over the past few months with multiple $25M annual commitments made to aces. Samardzija - to the surprise of many - has the chance to enter that elite group, although it will require more improvement this year. Garza figures to remain a tier below that group, although his pitches are good enough for him to play up. Jackson is solidly a tier below as a slightly above-average innings eater. The remaining crop of Wood, Feldman, Villanueva, and Baker all figure to be solid, unspectacular arms. The team's rotation screams average this year, but a lengthy injury to or trade of Garza knocks it down a level.
The minor league situation is hardly inspiring, but there are finally some arms to dream on. Hurlers like Struck, Whitenack, Loux, Kirk, Hendricks, and Wells have lower ceilings but could combine to produce a back-end starter or two. But Vizcaino, Underwood, Johnson, Blackburn, and Maples have ceilings rarely seen in the Cubs system. Just as importantly, given the top prospects available in the 2013 draft, it seems likely that the team will bring in another arm with an enormous ceiling, be it Indiana State's Sean Manaea, Stanford's Mark Appel, or Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray. With one truly elite potential arm in tow, the minor league situation looks solid. Health remains a big concern - particularly for Vizcaino, Johnson, and Maples - but healthy seasons could have this group looking very good, albeit mostly in the lower minor leagues.
Final Rating: 5.5
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Previous entries
Relief Pitcher
Center Field
Corner Outfield
Shortstop
Third Base
Second Base
First Base
Catcher
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