In the first part of my look into the future, I focused on the current Chicago Cubs and their expected contributions to the 2015 squad, be they as a member of the team, as a trade candidate returning value to the organization, or by simply vacating a roster spot to be occupied by a superior player. In this part, I'll take a look at the two free agent classes between now and Opening Day in 2015, evaluating the two classes separately first, then speculating as to how they might function in concert with each other. Installment one will focus on the 2014 class while installment two will cover the 2015 class and how the two offseasons will work in concert.
Generally speaking, free agency functions best as a means for a team to plug a hole, as a supplement to an almost-complete roster. However, free agency can also be the spur that kicks an otherwise dormant club into contention, much like it did with the worst-to-first 2007 Cubs which acquired Alfonso Soriano, Ted Lilly, and Jason Marquis in the same offseason. Much more generally speaking, free agency is a way to add talent at the cost of only one resource: cash. While trades require surrendering talent in order to obtain talent, free agency - be it domestic or international (in particular, for those over 23 who do not count against a team's international bonus pool allotment) - represents an incredible opportunity, especially for wealthy clubs, to acquire talent for only their most plentiful resource.
Finally, it is important to remember that the Cubs are unlikely to contend in 2014. While a team with lofty aspirations in 2014 could justify paying the price on the back end of a long-term contract - much like the 2007 Cubs did with Alfonso Soriano in an extreme fashion - a non-contender has a difficult time justifying such a move. As a result, older free agents are much less likely to figure into the equation, even if they represent the best value on the market. For example, a player like Roy Oswalt is likely to offer a lot of value at a low cost, but Oswalt and the Cubs are a poor fit. With that in mind, here is a look at the 2014 class.
2014 MLB Free Agency
Although the 2014 class is notable for the elite pitchers that will not reach the market, including Cole Hamels and Adam Wainwright, a handful of prime players will nonetheless negotiate their way to generational wealth. Here is a position-by-position look at the Cubs' interest in possible new players.
Catcher
Interest Level: Low. With Welington Castillo entrenched as the everyday man and with all indications suggesting that he will have another year to prove himself worthy of the distinction, the team will be on the lookout only for a Dioner Navarro-type, a decent defender with a bat on which to dream a bit who can be flipped if successful.
The Market: Ironically, Geovany Soto could fit the bill, as could Miguel Olivo.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <5%. There is room for a notable improvement, but the market is lacking.
First Base
Interest Level: None. Anthony Rizzo just signed a nine-year extension. It's really low.
The Market: Milwaukee's Corey Hart is coming off an injury but he can produce well if healthy enough to play. Mike Napoli doesn't have a true defensive position. Kendrys Morales has a well-rounded but unspectacular offensive game. The big fish would have been Justin Morneau had injuries not sapped his game.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <1%. Rizzo has the keys.
Second Base
Interest Level: High. I am very confident that the front office would like to upgrade the second base position. Darwin Barney is a useful player, an ideal backup middle infielder. However, he is overmatched as a full-time starter as evidenced by a putrid career .303 OBP and no power. Even though his defense is genuinely elite, the club needs to find some offense.
The Market: Robinson Cano is technically the biggest catch on the whole market. I say technically because very few people believe that the Yankees will actually allow him to remain free into the free agency period. However, it is possible that the sides are far enough apart that he could remain unattached into November. 32-year-old Omar Infante looks to have a couple of strong seasons left with average offense and strong defense. 35-year-old Chase Utley is an intriguing possibility showing great defense and very good offense. However, Utley seems unlikely to depart Philadelphia as a career-long Phillie, and his price tag could make him too risky given his age and extensive injury history.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 25%. Cano would obviously be the biggest name, but I expect the Cubs to pass on him even if he is available. Rumors have his number closer to Alex Rodriguez's 10-year, $275M deal than David Wright's 8-year, $136M pact. Even Wright's contract would be much too rich for Cano, a low-walk, no speed, horrible defensive middle infielder. Infante makes a ton of sense for the club and could serve as a strong mentor to Starlin Castro, although likely back-to-back postseason trips with the Tigers may leave him predisposed to stay in the Motor City. Utley is a very interesting possibility, a former elite talent with enough skills to be a very good regular. However, the injury history and age make him an unlikely target. I think it is Infante or bust, and I imagine Infante stays in Detroit.
Third Base
Interest Level: High. Luis Valbuena is probably not a long-term solution and Cody Ransom is 37. Kris Bryant will need a few years of seasoning assuming that he signs.
The Market: Pathetic. Slick-fielding 35-year-old Juan Uribe looks like the best option.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 0%. It's impossible when there isn't any talent there to acquire.
Shortstop
Interest Level: None. Castro has the job.
The Market: It's solidly better than the third base market. Jhonny Peralta will be 32 and should have a few more good years in front of himself. Yunel Escobar has had some Major League success, although his bat appears to have failed him. Stephen Drew is roughly the same.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 0%. Again, this is Castro's spot.
Left Field
Interest Level: Extreme. The current left fielder is deplorable at this point after a successful career.
The Market: Non-existent. 39-year-old Mark DeRosa and rejuvenated 32-year-old Nate McLouth are the entire market. Michael Morse's defense is unplayable in the outfield.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <5%. I'm sure that the front office would love to replace Soriano, but given his contract and the market, he will get another shot in year eight.
Center Field
Interest Level: Extreme. Right fielder David DeJesus is playing out of position in 2013. Provided that Ryan Sweeney isn't the real deal, this is the spot in the lineup with the greatest chance for improvement.
The Market: Thankfully, finally, there are some real options. Two in particular jump out. First, the likeliest target: Boston's Jacoby Ellsbury. Drafted by the Epstein regime in 2005, Ellsbury has proved to be a sensational defender in his career. Unfortunately, he has been inconsistent offensively and struggled with injuries, missing huge chunks of 2010 and 2012. He is an excellent base stealer and holds a .296/.350/.437/.787 line for his career, numbers that are propped up on the strength of an MVP-caliber 2011 year in which he bashed 32 home runs; he has just 25 in the rest of his career combined. Given his complicated history and age (30), Ellsbury's financial demands will be difficult to predict. Second, Chicagoan Curtis Granderson will hit the market at 33. Granderson has also struggled with some inconsistency and injuries, but his extreme power (.305 career ISO) and decent on-base ability are very intriguing. After suffering two injuries being hit by pitches this year, his price tag could be lower than expected.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 80%. If the Cubs make an offensive splash, this is the likeliest spot with two strong options.
Right Field
Interest Level: Medium. Since I expect DeJesus to be retained via his option, this spot is occupied.
The Market: There are five decent options. First, the aforementioned Corey Hart could return to the outfield. Second, Hunter Pence has shown enough staying power to merit consideration. Third, 37-year-old Carlos Beltran is good enough to justify the age risk. But the fourth option is the jewel: Cincinnati's Shin-Soo Choo. Choo is an on-base master who should hit the market as too pricey for the Reds. Unfortunately, his game is so poor defensively that he needs to maintain his extreme walk rate and good power to be an impact talent.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 35%. Center field is much likelier but Choo is a strong option even with his defensive shortcomings. He would be ideal atop the batting order.
Starting Pitcher
Interest Level: High. You always need pitching.
The Market: With so many starting pitchers, I will divide this into two camps: the impact starters and the filler starters. The impact group never contains a ton of options, and this year's group features only a pair. First, the Cubs' own Matt Garza will hit the market, regardless of whether he is traded. At 30 and with a couple of excellent seasons to his name, Garza figures to receive a four or five year deal worth at least $15M annually. As he has in his time with the Cubs, he would slot in as a good second banana or a great third option. Toronto's Josh Johnson is eerily similar to Garza and figures to earn a similar deal. Both pitchers come with significant injury concerns, but the upside is high enough that some team will justify the risk. The non-impact group is much larger and does feature some intriguing options. The team will likely grab at least one starter. They could go after a solid, unspectacular arm in his early 30s like Scott Feldman, Jason Hammel, Shaun Marcum, or Ricky Nolasco. They could take a riskier approach on an injury-prone player with higher upside like Scott Baker, Jorge de la Rosa, Gavin Floyd, or Chien-Ming Wang, although Floyd will likely miss most or all of 2014. They could nab an older, safer workhorse like Aaron Harang or Wandy Rodriguez. Or they could roll the dice with a former ace struggling through tougher times in Ubaldo Jimenez or Tim Lincecum. Finally, they could take a shot with Roberto Hernandez (the former Fausto Carmona), buying into his rate stats other than his home run rate.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 25% (Garza or Johnson); 90% (anyone else). The club needs arms, has cash, and doesn't have pipeline starting pitching talent. I think that the likeliest scenario is Baker returning on a goodwill deal after missing most of 2013, although a post-trade reunion with Garza is most certainly not out of the question.
Relief Pitcher
Interest Level: Extreme. With Carlos Marmol designated for assignment and Kyuji Fujikawa going under the knife, the Cubs need a number of relief arms.
The Market: The list of available relievers is enormous. If the team decides to go after a closer, injury-prone Ryan Madson and recovering Joel Hanrahan both make sense as the club can afford to wait out their return from injury. The other closers available are all in their late 30s. Non-closer targets could include Matt Capps, Joba Chamberlain, Jesse Crain, J.P. Howell, Jesse Litsch, Eric O'Flaherty, Juan Oviedo (the former Leo Nunez), and most notably, Edward Mujica.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 90%. The team so desperately needs good bullpen arms. I expect one to come this offseason and another to come next year. Relievers in particular follow the dollars, so I would not be surprised if Marmol's $9.8M from 2013 is split between a pair of newcomers.
A Note on International Free Agents
I could devote an entire blog to the new rules for international free agents. For these purposes, suffice it to say that there is a certain amount that teams can spend before losing the ability to sign international rookie free agents in future years. A team's pool is relative to their record the previous year, meaning that the Cubs have the second largest bonus pool for this year's July 2nd signing period, the first day players can sign. Teams can also trade for up to an additional 50% of their pool space.
Interest Level: Extreme. Given the club's willingness to spend on developmental talent and the large bonus pool, the Cubs are expected to be major players on the top international prospects. Thus, it is unsurprising that the team has been linked to the top Dominican player and the top Venezuelan.
The Market: Eloy Jimenez, a 6'4", 200 lbs. outfielder from Santo Domingo is the consensus top player on the international market. Jimenez lacks monster tools in the mold of Miguel Sano or Michael Ynoa. However, he already has a developed defensive game with a strong arm, good fielding skills, and very good speed. The offense has plenty of room for growth, but scouts project him to use his simple swing to be an average hitter with above-average power. Jimenez is built much like injured Daytona Cubs right fielder Jorge Soler, and should follow Soler's development path as his body fills out. Rumors have his bonus coming in somewhere north of $2.6M, a figure that is larger than the entire pool for all but ten teams. The top Venezuelan prospect, SS Gleyber Torres, is also 16 with a well-rounded projection. Torres figures to run poorly, but the rest of his game projects as average or better with the possibility of a completely above-average offensive profile. His swing is compact, fluid, and beautiful. Although currently a shortstop, given his slighter frame at 6'0", 170 lbs. and a rather violent throwing motion, Torres could be a second baseman five years from now. Torres is also expected to receive more than $1M, although his demand is said to be much lower than that of Jimenez. The Cubs are believed to be heavy favorites to sign both talented teenagers. Unfortunately for the Cubs, none of the teenage pitching prospects from Latin America come with the lofty projections the team would like to see, although Dominican 16-year-old Mayky Perez throws in the mid-90s from a 6'4", 190 lbs. frame, so he could be a name to watch. One other name jumps out on the international market because of his unique service time status: Cuban right-hander Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez. Because he is over 23 years old and has played at least three seasons in Cuba's top league, his bonus will not count against the signing team's bonus pool. At 26, Gonzalez could reach the Majors very quickly. He works with a four pitch mix including a mid-90s fastball, a big curveball, and a pair of complimentary pitches in a changeup and forkball. One writer reports that teams might be willing to fork over more than $10M per year for Gonzalez.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: >99%. My instincts tell me that the Cubs will have a very, very difficult time landing both Jimenez and Torres. Moreover, I imagine that Gonzalez will end up with either the Dodgers or the Red Sox given their interest in the starter. However, I will be stunned if the Cubs don't come away with at least one of the top three international talents given their $4.557M bonus pool.
Likeliest Outcome
The Cubs are going to be players internationally given their emphasis on player development and their bonus pool. I think that Jimenez is the likeliest player to join the franchise the offseason. Torres also has a very good chance of becoming a Cub.
At the Major League level, I think that the Cubs will aggressively pursue one of the big three free agent outfielders, coming away with one of Ellsbury, Choo, or Granderson (in that order of probability). I think the team also grabs a second tier starting pitcher and at least one non-closing relief pitcher. I would be very surprised if the team made a trade to acquire a big time Major League player, such as the Rays' David Price.
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