2015 MLB Free Agency
In the second of two looks at free agent classes that will impact the 2015 Cubs, we now turn to the winter of 2014-15. 2014 will be a much different year for the club than 2013 with a number of high impact minor leaguers pushing for a September call to the Majors. As a result, the team will have a greater incentive to push for complementary players in view of contending in the 2015 season. With that in mind, here's a look at the targets.
Catcher
Interest Level: Low-to-medium. After the 2014 season, it should be clear whether Welington Castillo can be a competent starter. If he is, a veteran reserve will likely be added. If not, a starter will need to be found given the dearth of catching talent in the system.
The Market: Russell Martin is the big - and only - name. Among the reserves, only David Ross offers much offensive ability and he will be 38 in 2015.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <10%. Castillo should show enough to keep the job.
First Base
Interest Level: None. Did I mention Rizzo's nine year deal in the previous post?
The Market: Kansas City's Billy Butler and Washington's Adam LaRoche both have hefty options for 2015, so at least one of the potential stopgaps should hit the market.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <1%. Something catastrophic would need to happen to Rizzo for the Cubs to consider a big move here.
Second Base
Interest Level: High. Provided that the team passes on Robinson Cano and Darwin Barney maintains a sub-.300 OBP, the position needs to be addressed.
The Market: Two big names could hit the market, although the odds are that neither actually does. Dustin Pedroia has a relatively team-friendly option while Rickie Weeks has a slightly pricier mutual option. Barring a hugely disappointing year or a substantial injury, neither player is likely to reach the marketplace.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <5%. I do believe that the second base position will be manned by someone other than Darwin Barney in 2015, but the improvement will be internal.
Third Base
Interest Level: Medium. The hope here is that this spot is also filled internally, be it with continued progress from current third baseman Luis Valbuena or the development of one of the many projectable internal options.
The Market: If the organization can't fill the spot internally, there should be some solid free agent possibilities. San Diego's Chase Headley is currently slated to become a free agent. His combination of superb defense and solid offense will be in high demand. The Dodgers' Hanley Ramirez will hit the market at 31; if he maintains his health and decent production between now and then, he figures to earn a pretty penny. Finally, San Francisco's Kung Fu Panda, Pablo Sandoval, will be a free agent at just 28. Sandoval's offensive game has stagnated a bit in recent years, but his solid defensive reputation makes him a good, complete option.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 35%. Given the team's struggles in developing talent at the hot corner since Ran Santo's departure, it is hard to rely on the bevy of internal possibilities. This could be a spot worth watching.
Shortstop
Interest Level: Low. Unless Starlin Castro's .260 OBP persists for the next 15 months - a highly unlikely occurrence - the team simply won't be looking.
The Market: Asdrubal Cabrera, J.J. Hardy, and Jed Lowrie all figure to be in search of long-term commitments when they hit the market. At 29, Cabrera is the most likely candidate to receive such an offer, although Hardy's power bat will have him in high demand.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <1%. Even if Castro struggles, the team is committed to him.
Left Field
Interest Level: Extreme. With Alfonso Soriano finally off the books, the team will need to fill the spot he will hold down for eight years.
The Market: Unless the light-hitting, speedy Brett Gardner is your type of left fielder, the free agent marketplace just isn't inspiring. Post-steroids Melky Cabrera and 36-year-old Josh Willingham highlight the group.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <5%. There just isn't a name on which spending makes sense.
Center Field
Interest Level: Medium. It's high at some point in 2014-15, but I think the solution comes a year earlier.
The Market: There are a pair of rather interesting options. First, the mercurial Colby Rasmus hits the market at just 28. Rasmus has wildly underachieved and is regarded as a negative in the clubhouse, but he still has plenty of tools to make an impact and appears to be putting things together. Denard Span has a $9M club option. If the option isn't exercised, he's likely just a reclamation project.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: <20%. Rasmus is intriguing, but the clubhouse concern is real.
Right Field
Interest Level: Low. Hopefully this position is handled internally.
The Market: Two players immediately jump out as both have essentially club options that could lead to solid producers nonetheless hitting the market. The Orioles hold a $15.5M net mutual option - almost surely to be exercised by the player - on Nick Markakis, a former on-base machine with a bit of pop and speed whose game has settled down a tier. The White Sox hold a $12.5M net option on Alex Rios, he of excellent defense, great speed, good power, and poor on-base ability. The third intriguing option is Milwaukee's Norichika Aoki. Aoki offers tremendous defense, good speed, strong on-base skills, but little power. None of the options are franchise changing options, but all three should be able to hold down the position if needed.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 35%. If Jorge Soler develops as hoped, he will have the keys to the position by 2015. But if Soler stumbles along the way, any of the free agent option could be appealing to bridge the gap.
Starting Pitcher
Interest Level: Extreme. The system is largely barren, despite my optimism for the uninspiring group that will appear in the next post.
The Market: Even though many of them figure to sign extensions in the next year, as of now a bevy of strong options are slated to hit the market after the 2014 season. The headliner, Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw, will be just 27 in 15 months, so he will command something north of $25M annually if Los Angeles stuns the baseball world by letting him reach free agency. Beyond Kershaw, Detroit's Max Scherzer, Cincinnati's Homer Bailey, and Cleveland's Justin Masterson figure to set the market. Four less exciting but still solid starters in their 30s figure to seek their last big contracts: Jeff Niemann, Kyle Kendrick, Brandon McCarthy, and Jake Peavy. A quartet of strong but non-elite hurlers have club options for 2015 that will probably be exercised, but might not: Brandon Morrow ($9M net), Johnny Cueto ($9.2M net), Chad Billingsley ($11M net), and Yovani Gallardo ($12.4M). All four come with serious injury concerns yet very high ceilings. Finally, one intriguing reclamation project could interest the Cubs: Oakland's Brett Anderson. Anderson burst onto the scene with 30 strong starts as a 21-year-old in 2009. Since then, he has appeared in just 44 major league games. He does have a $10.5M net club option for 2015, so a strong 2014 likely keeps him in Oakland. If the injuries persist, he could be available at 27.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 90%. The Cubs need pitching and they lack high-level starting pitching prospects in their own system. The willingness of the top names - Kershaw, Scherzer, Bailey, and Masterson - to postpone generational wealth determines what caliber of pitcher the team brings on board.
Relief Pitcher
Interest Level: High. The team still lacks pitching. Many teams fill their bullpen with failed starters; the Cubs don't have enough starting prospects for that route to succeed.
The Market: As is generally the case, plenty of good arms will be on the market. A few solid closing options will be available in Sergio Romo, Jim Johnson, and the mercurial Chris Perez. Other good pitchers like David Robertson, Franklin Morales, and Andrew Bailey will join them. As always, the relief pitching market will be flooded with only a couple of strong closing options.
Likelihood of a Major Acquisition: 80%. The Cubs still need pitching and they figure to add an arm or two again in the 2015 offseason.
A Note on International Free Agents
In light of the Cubs's huge acquisitions in this year's international market, it remains to be seen if they will have enough international bonus pool money for the 2013-14 year to avoid being seriously limited in their ability to make big name signings next summer. I fully expect that the team will acquire at least enough additional pool space for this year to avoid having spending restrictions next year after agreeing to terms with Dominican OF Eloy Jimenez ($2.8M), Venezuelan SS Gleyber Torres ($1.7M), Dominican righty Jefferson Mejia ($850K), Colombian righty Erling Moreno ($650K), and Dominican catcher Johan Matos ($270K) for $6.27M. After trades with Houston, Baltimore, and the Dodgers, the team currently has a pool of $5,520,300. In order to be within 5% of their amount spent - the cutoff where the penalty is only a tax and not restricted spending next year - the team needs to acquire an additional $451,200 of pool space, an eminently achievable feat given the likelihood of multiple remaining marquee trades this month. Regardless of the reality that the Cubs will likely have a top-10 bonus pool again next year, it is extremely difficult for any team to reign in the top two talents from Latin American, let alone to do it back-to-back years. The Cubs will be players again next summer; I just don't expect a haul nearly on par with this year.
Two Free Agent Classes, One Team
Given the team's areas of need and the relative strengths of the free agent classes, I would be very surprised if the team didn't ink at least one of the more prominent starting pitchers and I expect them to grab a pair over those two years. I think there is a decent possibility of the team flipping Matt Garza at this year's trade deadline, then signing him to a new contract in the offseason. If Cincinnati allows Homer Bailey to reach free agency, I think the Cubs will aggressively pursue him in an attempt to strip a rival of a major talent. They will certainly grab at least one relief pitcher over the two classes. There is also a decent possibility of the team grabbing a third baseman, although Luis Valbuena continues to challenge that assumption with strong play. However, the big move will come in the outfield. I expect that the Cubs will sign one of the three big lefties over the two classes: Jacoby Ellsbury, Colby Rasmus, or Shin-Soo Choo. Curtis Granderson represents a risky yet cheaper fallback option. With the major improvements to the offense expected to come from within (see the exciting prospect post that is sitting in my drafts, waiting for me to press "publish" in about a week), multiple offensive additions would be a surprise but one big splash seems likely given the available payroll space and the relatively young talent on which to use it.
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