In the final look toward 2015, we get to the most exciting portion of the organization right now: the minor leagues. Things aren't pretty in Chicago, but the organization has added an incredible amount of young talent since the middle of 2011.
Oftentimes the primary contribution a prospect makes to a team - especially a prospect of a major market team - is via the return he nets in a trade. While the Cubs don't figure to be spinning off young talent in the near future, nonetheless the best way to evaluate the contributions prospects might make to the 2015 Cubs is to investigate the entire system, realizing that some will still be Cubs property in two years while some will not. With that in mind, here is a look at the top prospects in the organization with an emphasis on their projection and development timeline. My sources for this writing include a number of written scouting reports, internet videos, and even firsthand viewing of some of the prospects. I will use the 20-80 scouting scale for tools, roughly defined as:
20-25: Very poor
30-35: Well below average
40-45: Below average
50: Average
55: Solid-average
60-65: Plus or above average
70-75: Plus-plus or well above average
80: Outstanding or elite
While most people use power, hit, arm, fielding, and run, I like the idea of throwing in a sixth category: plate discipline. As we have seen with Starlin Castro, a fantastic hit tool can actually be a player's downfall if it gets in the way of developing a mature approach at the plate.
1. SS JAVIER BAEZ
DOB: 12/1/1992 (Age 20)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'0", 195 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 9th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2011
2013 Stats: 76 Games @ Daytona (A+), 10 Games @ Tennessee (AA): 378 PA, .264/.328/.522, 6.3% BB%, 24.3% K%, 20 HR, 4 3B, 19 2B, 12 SB
Offensive Profile: Baez's power is extreme. He generates loud contact thanks to a explosive swing. His bat speed is leaps and bounds beyond that of any other minor league player I have ever seen and beyond that of all of the current Cubs major leaguers. His ability to use the entire field is well developed; in the three games I have seen him play, he has a pair of run-scoring hits to the right side. His approach at the plate, while imperfect, is far more advanced than expected for such a young player with a pronounced hitting ability. He has shown a good ability to lay off pitches off of the plate outside in order to get a more hittable pitch, although this skill is still developing. There is some movement in his plate approach, but there are not so many moving parts that it will cause a timing problem down the line and he does not compromise balance with his actions. If he gets pitches in the zone, the crack of the bat resonates throughout the ballpark.
Defensive Profile: Baez undoubtedly has the arm to play on the left side of the infield, regularly turning likely hits into outs with big throws. His fielding is fluid and he is quick enough to get in good position on most balls. Even with maturation of his body and game, he should be able to play an average shortstop.
Red Flags: Overall approach to the game. I expected this problem to be a lack of focus. It isn't. It's more so that he gets overexcited at times, leading to a wild throw or an overaggressive swing. It also isn't that he plays with that level of aggression at all times, with otherwise excellent plate appearances sometimes inexplicably including a horrible chase of a high fastball. As he gets burned on these at higher levels, hopefully he adjusts.
Path to the Majors: With Baez's bat, the path is wide open. He would be best served by completing a full season at Daytona followed by another full season at Tennessee. However, he could push that timeline a bit with better control of his actions. By 2015, Baez could enter spring training with a full-time job in Chicago on the line. I'm not a fan of his early July promotion to Tennessee, but it will present a great challenge to his strike zone judgment.
Overall Projection: Baez could combine 75 power with a 60 hit tool and 50 discipline. He should keep his 65 arm, although his fielding and run won't push much beyond 50. With that complete package, Baez is a middle-of-the-order hitter for a contender if his game continues to develop. His discipline and hit could be lower, but the power is going to carry him. At his peak, he could put up lines of .280/.350/.550 with 10 steals.
2. COF JORGE SOLER
DOB: 2/25/1992 (Age 21)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'4", 215 lbs.
Transactions: Signed as an international free agent by Chicago Cubs in 2012
2013 Stats: 55 Games @ Daytona (A+): 236 PA, .281/.343/.467, 8.9% BB%, 16.1% K%, 8 HR, 1 3B, 13 2B, 5 SB
Offensive Profile: Soler formerly employed a very pronounced load with quite a bit of movement with his hands and a sizable slide step. Thankfully, he has simplified his pre-pitch actions. He is regarded as having an advanced approach at the plate, but he was wildly overaggressive when I saw him, chasing poor pitches well out of the zone on numerous occasions despite assaulting mistake pitches. He already has the physique of a Major Leaguer, and his quick stroke generates very loud contact. His swing is oriented toward generating backspin, leading to plenty of power in his future as he harnesses his strength. He runs well enough that his baserunning should be a strength.
Defensive Profile: This should be a real strength for Soler. He has a huge arm with the chance to be a major asset in right field. He appeared a bit rickety at times while warming up in the field, but every time a ball headed his way, he had great jumps, exhibited good quickness, and took perfect paths.
Red Flags: Missed time and health. Soler missed almost a year of competitive baseball while defecting from Cuba. It was especially important for him to enjoy a full year in 2013. Instead, he is likely to miss the remainder of the minor league regular season with a stress fracture in his shin. As is the nature of a stress fracture, he was obviously playing hurt for some time before finally hitting the shelf. I have some additional concern about his pitch recognition, although the simplification of his approach at the plate should help his pitch recognition and tracking.
Path to the Majors: It seems a foregone conclusion that Soler will participate in the Arizona Fall League and possibly a winter league too. If so, depending on his results, he may find himself starting 2014 in Tennessee despite missed time at Daytona. Still, given the injury, I would be surprised if Soler gets even a cup of coffee in 2014 as he desperately needs the game experience he will miss due to injury in 2013. Unfortunately the gap between what he is and what he could be didn't close much in 2013.
Overall Projection: While the timeline has shifted for Soler, the projection remains largely the same. He should have 65 power, 55 hit, 65 arm, 55 speed, and a 60 glove. I'm hopeful that his discipline comes along for the ride, although it could be slower developing now; it should nonetheless be 50 at worst. If the discipline is real, Soler is a cleanup hitter with strong defense for a contender or a new age 2nd hitter in a lineup with more power but less on-base ability behind him. Soler's peak could be around .275/.370/.530 with 10 steals. Considering that he was playing hurt and still put up good numbers, Soler still has a monster ceiling.
3. CF ALBERT ALMORA
DOB: 4/16/1994 (Age 19)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'2", 180 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 6th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2012
2013 Stats: 46 Games @ Kane County (A): 207 PA, .328/.364/.474, 4.3% BB%, 12.1% K%, 3 HR, 3 3B, 13 2B, 4 SB
Offensive Profile: Almora has good skills throughout his offensive toolbox. His hands are very good, leading to great bat speed. He starts with a high leg kick to get to his smooth, line-drive oriented stroke that lacks big power projection but should lead to consistently high batting averages. He has enough speed to steal some bases, but his projection is driven by batting average and an advanced overall feel for the game that offers hope for his ability to develop discipline in his approach.
Defensive Profile: Almora looks to be a center fielder if he progresses as hoped, but he does not have enough speed to be an impact defender there. If the lack of speed forces him to a corner, he should be an elite defender albeit with underwhelming offense.
Red Flags: Athleticism. Whereas Baez has loud, game-changing tools, Almora derives his value from his instincts and understanding of the game. As he climbs through the system, he may struggle to keep up with bigger, faster, and stronger players.
Path to the Majors: Much like Baez, Almora's path is wide open. He will need seasoning to see enough pitches to develop the necessary discipline at the plate. Still, given his advanced game and his presence in a full-season league at 19, Almora could spend 2014 in Daytona, 2015 in Tennessee, and be ready to reach Chicago in late 2015 or early 2016.
Overall Projection: Almora could have a 65 hit, 55 power, 50 run, and a 55 glove. His discipline is a complete wild card at this point as he has shown no ability to walk, but his batting averages have been extreme and he has limited strikeouts. Almora could be an above-average center fielder who is a very good leadoff or 2nd hitter for a contender. He could peak around .300/.355/.460 with 15 stolen bases while playing a good center field.
4. 3B KRIS BRYANT
DOB: 1/4/1992 (Age 21)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'5", 218 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 2nd overall by Chicago Cubs in 2013
2013 Stats: N/A
Offensive Profile: It's all power, all the time. Bryant has an eerily quiet approach at the plate for such a menacing power hitter with a wide base and a minimal load. His smooth, simple actions empower his quick, loft-oriented swing to pack a huge punch. Bryant does not run particularly well and he likely will not hit for a ton of average. While that all may be disappointing, the tradeoff is some of the best power in the game out of a big, strong, and athletic frame.
Defensive Profile: This is trickier o figure. Bryant has a strong arm, but his lack of speed and huge frame limit him to the corners of both the infield and outfield. The hope remains that Bryant's hands make up for any inflexibility and lack of quickness as his body fills out a bit more. If they cannot, he should move well enough to provide average production in an outfield corner.
Red Flags: Collegiate level of competition. Bryant made the right moves outside of his college baseball, making appearances with Team USA. Unfortunately, the level of competition in the West Coast Conference leaves plenty to be desired. As such, Bryant's plate discipline and hit tool may be underdeveloped at his stage. There will also be a ton of strikeouts in his game, so his ability to limit strikeouts will be important.
Path to the Majors: Bryant's path isn't quite as clear as most other prospects. He will spend some time in Boise this year and might even make his way to Kane County if things go well. Given the front office's desire to fully develop prospects before pushing them to the major leagues - Boston's Jacoby Ellsbury (1,155) and Dustin Pedroia (1,216) both receiving over 1,100 minor league plate appearances despite their advanced status - Bryant will likely begin 2014 in Kane County for a brief stint before spending most of the year in Daytona. 2015 is the larger question as his approach at the plate determines whether he spends more time at High-A ball or makes the jump to Tennessee. If his production dictates the latter option, Bryant can reach Chicago by the end of the summer in 2015. The reason for the lack of clarity: if Bryant shows more advanced discipline than expected, he could move very, very quickly, reaching Tennessee by the summer of 2014 and pushing for an MLB job shortly thereafter.
Overall Projection: Bryant's level of athleticism limits his overall potential in that contributions with the glove and on the basepaths are unlikely. Depending on the development of his discipline, Bryant could be a power-hitting machine in the middle-of-the-order for a contender in the 4th or 5th spot of the lineup. At his peak, Bryant could produce .270/.360/.560 lines from third base or a corner outfield spot. His 75+ power could form a power trio with Anthony Rizzo and Baez.
5. SP PAUL BLACKBURN
DOB: 12/4/1993 (Age 19)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'2", 190 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 56th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2012
2013 Stats: 6 Games/6 Starts @ Boise (A-): 26.0 IP, 19 H, 12 BB (4.15 BB/9), 25 SO (8.65 SO/9), 0 HR, 12 R, 2.42 ERA, 1.94 GO/AO
Physical Profile: Blackburn was drafted as a wiry 160 pounder. In the year since being drafted, Blackburn packed on 30 lbs., significantly improving his ability to handle a starter's workload, and there still figures to be a bit more room to grow. Blackburn absolutely has the size to stick as a starter, maintaining velocity deep into games as he develops. He uses a high leg kick before compacting his body to explode forward.
Pitch Profile: Blackburn's fastball works in the low-90s and, given his age and size, could improve a bit more. He also works with a curveball and a changeup.
Red Flags: Age. Blackburn does not currently have any glaring weaknesses to his game, but at 19, he has all of his professional development standing between him and Chicago. There are so many things that need to go well.
Path to the Majors: Blackburn is the top pitching prospect in a system bereft of high-end arms. As such, the organization is begging for him to develop. He will get his first full season of game action in 2014. Seeing as his body will probably be filled out by then, he could move a bit more quickly than most high schoolers. He could be in Chicago by late 2016.
Overall Projection: Blackburn lacks any elite offerings, but he has the other tools necessary to be a mid-rotation starter. He has quite a gap between his current status and that projection, and, as a 19-year-old, there is a tremendous amount to learn about pitchability, sequencing, and command. If things come together, Blackburn can be a good 3rd starter for a playoff team. Blackburn could have a few 30 start seasons with 7-8 K/9 and low walk rates.
6. SS ARISMENDY ALCANTARA
DOB: 10/29/1991 (Age 21)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: S/R. 5'10", 160 lbs.
Transactions: Signed as an international free agent by Chicago Cubs in 2008
2013 Stats: 92 Games @ Tennessee (AA): 394 PA, .277/.352/.469, 9.9% BB%, 21.8% K%, 13 HR, 2 3B, 23 2B, 22 SB
Offensive Profile: Alcantara lacks a powerful frame, yet that hasn't stopped him from hitting for good power. He has consistently hit for a solid batting average and shown a bit of speed. However, his base stealing ability has erupted in the last year and a half, as has his discipline. Alcantara has shown an increasingly well-rounded game as he continues to climb through the system. He has an absurd amount of pre-pitch movement, bending both knees, wagging the bat a bit, and performing a bizarre, pronounced back-shoulder shrug.
Defensive Profile: Although technically still listed as a shortstop, Alcantara's future is at the keystone. He lacks the profile of Darwin Barney - as does every other second base prospect in the game - but he is athletic enough to cover plenty of ground on the right side.
Red Flags: Size and platoon splits. It is difficult for most 160 pounders to make it in the Majors. Alcantara moves well enough to survive, but it is very hard to generate powerful contact from that frame. Perhaps more frightening, Alcantara has an outrageous platoon split, punishing right-handed pitching and flailing versus lefties. Scrapping hitting from the right side would be an enormous change.
Path to the Majors: With Starlin Castro seemingly immovable at shortstop despite big struggles and Darwin Barney an everyday starter, Alcantara will likely be allowed to finish this year at Tennessee before jumping to Iowa for 2014. Barney figures to move on in the next year, so Alcantara will likely get his shot if he keeps producing.
Overall Projection: As a relative newcomer on the prospect scene, Alcantara is a bit tougher to peg. He has shown such improvement over the past 15 months at higher levels, it would be a quite a surprise if he didn't get a chance to perform at the highest level. With limited information, I think Alcantara could be an average second baseman with 50 power, 50 hit, 50 discipline, 60 speed, and 55 glove. As such, he could be an adequate 2nd hitter on a good team or a tremendous option in the 7th or 8th spot of an excellent lineup. He isn't going to be a great player, but he does so many things well that he could be a nice piece out of a less traditional frame. He could peak at .270/.330/.425 with 20 steals.
7. COF ELOY JIMENEZ
DOB: 11/27/1996 (Age 16)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'4", 200 lbs.
Transactions: Signed as an international free agent by Chicago Cubs in 2013
2013 Stats: N/A
Offensive Profile: Jimenez has a pretty, compact stroke as a 16-year-old. He already has the athletic build to develop into a good producer who hits for power and a good average. Although he currently runs well, he may not do so if he adds 20-30 pounds to his frame, even if it is good weight.
Defensive Profile: His arm is strong currently and should play well enough for him to man right field very effectively. Again, his speed is currently such that he could play center field but he figures to end up in a corner in the future. As he adds weight, his defensive profile will take a hit although his arm should remain an asset.
Red Flags: Age, identity, and contract. Jimenez is only 16, so there is a chasm between him now and his Major League version. Coming from the wild west of Latin America, there are always identity verification concerns. Finally, Jimenez is yet to formally sign, likely a formality as the Cubs seek to obtain more international bonus pool space. Still, the lack of a contract left me reluctant to include him on this list.
Path to the Majors: Jimenez cannot begin playing professionally until the 2014 season. I expect that he will make his U.S. debut in 2015, followed by a full season debut in 2016. Beyond that, any projection seems ridiculous. For reference sake, assuming one level at a time once playing full season ball, Jimenez would spend 2017 in Daytona, 2018 in Tennessee, and 2019 in Iowa/Chicago.
Overall Projection: Jimenez very much elicits thoughts of Soler, albeit with a bit less power in his projection. He can reach a 60 power, 60 hit, 50 run, 60 throw, and 50 field. Discipline is rare among Latin American teenagers, so a 40 seems cautiously optimistic there. If Jimenez pans out, he can be a good option in the 4th or 5th spot of a contending lineup where his power and hit are more valuable and any lacking on-base skills are less problematic. Jimenez has the kind of projection to hit .285/.345/.500 with 10 stolen bases and strong defense.
8. SP BEN WELLS
DOB: 9/10/1992 (Age 20)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'2", 220 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 220th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2010
2013 Stats: 18 Games/18 Starts @ Daytona (A+): 97.2 IP, 82 H, 30 BB (2.76 BB/9), 63 SO (5.81 SO/9), 6 HR (0.55 HR/9), 43 R, 3.32 ERA, 2.41 GO/AO
Physical Profile: Wells has the classic sinkerballer frame as the 220 lbs. listing weight is almost certainly a bit light. He still has some baby fat on his frame, but he definitely has the kind of frame that can handle a big workload.
Pitch Profile: Like the physique, Wells has the classic sinkerballer's arsenal. He features a low-90s, hard-sinking fastball that generates tons of ground balls. He throws a low-80s slider, and complements the pair with a sinking changeup as well. Although Wells does not generate strikeouts with his pitches, he successfully generates the ground ball contact he seeks and limits home runs.
Red Flags: Health and contract. Wells suffered an elbow injury that limited him to just eight starts in the Midwest League in 2012. More frightening, Wells has a contractual clause requiring him to be added to the team's 40-man roster in 2013. His success thus far should make this decision an easy one.
Path to the Majors: Wells received a very aggressive assignment in 2013, moving to Daytona after just 44 innings at A ball. He hasn't disappointed, continuing to limit walks and home runs while generating on-the-ground contact. He may reach Tennessee late in 2013, and he should certainly spend the 2014 campaign there. If things continue to go well, he just might find himself in Chicago at some point in 2014 and very likely will attend spring training in 2015 with an MLB job on the line.
Overall Projection: Still true to the sinkerballer mold, Wells doesn't have the sexiest projection. He won't strike out many Major League hitters and he isn't going to light up the radar gun. What he will do is throw a boatload of average innings, requiring strong infield defense behind him. Wells can be a good 4th or superb 5th starter for a contender, eating regular season innings but not figuring into a playoff rotation. He should have some 200 inning seasons where he limits walks and home runs while rolling boatloads of double plays.
9. UTIL JUNIOR LAKE
DOB: 3/27/1990 (Age 23)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'3", 215 lbs.
Transactions: Signed as an international free agent by Chicago Cubs in 2007
2013 Stats: 40 Games @ Iowa (AAA): 170 PA, .295/.341/.462, 5.9% BB%, 19.4% K%, 4 HR, 2 3B, 10 2B, 14 SB
Offensive Profile: Lake has quieted his approach some at the plate, although he still holds his bat over his shoulder at a downward angle pointing toward the ground before cocking the bat to load for his swing. This kind of unnecessary movement can make his timing appear off. Regardless, Lake has shown an improved hit tool over the last few years in addition to showing solid power, decent discipline, and great speed. A slowly developing prospect, Lake appears to have put his game together offensively.
Defensive Profile: Defense is another story. Lake is a mess with the glove and he is yet to find a defensive home. The former shortstop was nominally moved to third base this offseason but seems destined for an outfield location where his athleticism and big arm can make up for whatever fluidity issues are present in his game.
Red Flags: Defense. Lake has already shown enough with the bat and on the basepaths to warrant a look at the next level. His glove may be his downfall.
Path to the Majors: A stress fracture of the rib delayed Lake's start to the 2013 campaign, but he made the jump to Iowa and kept on hitting and running. Lake should reach Chicago in August or September this year with a shot to win a bench job next year.
Overall Projection: It's hard to project a homeless player. Lake should look to Tampa Bay's Ben Zobrist for inspiration, a player without a true defensive home whose offensive abilities and athleticism enable him to be one of the great assets in the game. Lake could have a 55 hit, 50 power, 65 run, 30 glove, 55 arm, and a 30 discipline. The holes in his game are pronounced. But so are the pluses. As a result, Lake figures to be a great utilityman and bench bat on a contending team who gets between 300 and 400 plate appearances each year. He will get his first crack at proving that tonight.
10. SP PIERCE JOHNSON
DOB: 5/10/1991 (Age 22)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'3", 170 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 43rd overall by Chicago Cubs in 2012
2013 Stats: 13 Games/13 Starts @ Kane County (A), 4 Games/4 Starts @ Daytona (A+): 91.2 IP, 89 H, 30 BB (2.95 BB/9), 92 SO (9.03 SO/9), 5 HR (0.49 HR/9), 36 R, 3.04 ERA, 1.08 GO/AO
Physical Profile: Johnson's wiry frame is currently a liability. He has the ability to add some weight to his body, but at 22, it seems doubtful that he will ever push his way up near 200 lbs. As he currently stands, his frame wears down quickly in games with his fastball velocity dropping three miles per hour just four innings deep when I saw him. His fastball command similarly begins to waver. There just aren't a lot of 170 lbs. starting pitchers at the highest level, so Johnson desperately needs to add weight to his frame to avoid a shift to the bullpen.
Pitch Profile: He has a very smooth, repeatable delivery that enables him to easily work at 92 with a bit of arm-side run. He doesn't appear to have much more velocity on the pitch, although he has been clocked as high as 95. While his fastball is good but not special, his 11-to-5 curveball has a chance to be a big pitch for him. Thrown in the low-80s, Johnson is fearless with the offering working it in all counts to all hitters in all locations. His changeup clearly lags behind the first two offerings, and he currently lacks the confidence to use it versus left-handed batters in key situations.
Red Flags: Size and health. As mentioned above, Johnson needs to find a way to add size to his frame so he can last deeper into outings. As for his health, the Cubs were only able to select him in the 2012 draft because he fell due to concerns about a forearm injury. He has been healthy as a professional and he needs his innings to work on the changeup and to build arm strength.
Path to the Majors: Although he is already 22, Johnson looks to need quite a bit more seasoning. I expect him to start 2014 at Daytona before a mid-season jump to Tennessee. Then in 2015, he will likely spend most of the year in a minor leagues before a late-season look in Chicago. The timeline changes drastically if he is moved to the bullpen.
Overall Projection: Johnson is very difficult for me to peg right now. His fastball-curveball combination is enough to make him an average Major League starter provided that he develops a usable changeup and packs on some pounds. But the frame is not built for him to add much size and the changeup isn't close. He could end up with a 55 fastball, 60 curveball, and a 45 changeup. As such, I think the goofy righty who hops over the foul line and wears his socks up high has an equal chance of being a great 4th starter or ending up in the bullpen as a nice setup arm who relies a bit more on pitchability and a bit less on stuff than most of his relief peers.
11. SP KYLE HENDRICKS
DOB: 12/7/1989 (Age 23)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'3", 190 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 264th overall by Texas Rangers in 2011; traded with 3B Christian Villanueva to Chicago Cubs for SP Ryan Dempster in 2012
2013 Stats: 18 Games/18 Starts @ Tennessee (AA): 106.1 IP, 90 H, 24 BB (2.03 BB/9), 85 SO (7.19 SO/9), 3 HR (0.25 HR/9), 29 R, 2.03 ERA, 1.74 GO/AO
Physical Profile: The Professor, a Dartmouth alumnus, has a lanky frame with just enough meat on it to stick as a starter. His simple, classic, overhand delivery places very little stress on his body.
Pitch Profile: None of Hendricks's pitches inspire much confidence. He works in the high-80s with his fastball and complements the heater with a diverse arsenal including a strong changeup, a relatively new cutter, and a curveball. Again, by themselves, none of the pitches stand out. But Hendricks's command and control are among the best around. Repeatable mechanics and well-placed offerings are his calling card.
Red Flags: Velocity. By working in the high-80s, Hendricks severely limits his margin for error. In order to make it at the highest level, his command and control both need to remain superb against tougher competition.
Path to the Majors: Hendricks is in the midst of a marvelous campaign at AA Tennessee. As openings arise in the Chicago rotation, he could get a look as soon as September to see if he has enough command to make his game work in the Show. At the very worst, he should get a look at the end of the summer of 2014.
Overall Projection: While command and control aren't sexy like velocity and movement, Hendricks may actually be the best bet of any Cubs pitching prospect to find his way into a Major League rotation. Hendricks owns an incredible 1.45 BB/9 over the first 279.2 innings of his professional career. Despite skipping full-season A ball, Hendricks hasn't missed a beat, enjoying great results at every level while issuing few walks and limiting home runs against increasingly advanced hitters. While the lack of power stuff limits his ceiling, Hendricks should be a good 4th starter or an excellent 5th option for a contender.
12. 1B DAN VOGELBACH
DOB: 12/17/1992 (Age 20)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: L/R. 6'0", 250 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 68th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2011
2013 Stats: 91 Games @ Kane County (A): 401 PA, .284/.352/.449, 10.0% BB%, 15.2% K%, 14 HR, 0 3B, 17 2B, 4 SB
Offensive Profile: Vogelbach has huge power, arguably among the best in the minor leagues. Everything in his game is oriented toward generating big contact with plenty of extra-base hits flowing as a result. His hitting approach is advanced enough that he should hit for high average and draw plenty of walks. The offensive upside is immense. His pre-pitch motions are numerous with a pronounced stride and a huge load with his hands. He is among the slowest professional players.
Defensive Profile: He doesn't have one. Nominally a first baseman, Vogelbach is a pure designated hitter at the highest level. He is too big to make even the limited athletic plays required by a first baseman.
Red Flags: Body and defense. Vogelbach seems to have done a very nice job converting fat into muscle as a professional, and he already looks more athletic than just large. However, his conditioning will always be a concern. More importantly, his defensive profile will limit him to the 15 American League teams assuming the bat develops.
Path to the Majors: Vogelbach will be a methodically developed prospect, going one level at a time. As such, he should spend 2014 in Daytona, 2015 in Tennessee, and 2016 figuring out where to play in the Major Leagues.
Overall Projection: Vogelbach is the rare player that lives on the extremes of the scouting scale with future 75 power, 65 hit, and 70 discipline offset by 20 run, 30 glove, and an arm that won't matter. At his peak, Vogelbach can be among the best designated hitters in baseball. His makeup is highly regarded to the extent that, even with his body, he can headline a trade for a big player.
13. SP DUANE UNDERWOOD
DOB: 7/20/1994 (Age 18)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'2", 205 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 67th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2012
2013 Stats: 6 Games/6 Starts @ Boise (A-): 25.0 IP, 34 H, 13 BB (4.68 BB/9), 19 SO (6.84 SO/9), 3 HR (1.08 HR/9), 23 R, 6.12 ERA, 1.64 GO/AO
Physical Profile: Underwood is still maturing physically, but at his peak, he should settle around 220 lbs., giving him a classic power physique. His delivery involves a lot of effort and likely puts a good amount of stress on his arm. With some mechanical refinement and additional strength, he should be well equipped to handle a starter's load.
Pitch Profile: It all starts with Underwood's huge fastball that features a bit of sink and hits in the mid-90s. As he develops, the fastball should settle in the low-to-mid-90s making it a true plus-plus offering. His curveball and changeup, on the other hand, have a long way to go. His only breaking pitch works in the mid-70s, something that professional hitters will exploit. As such, he may need to add a slider in order to stick as a rotation possibility. His pitches have a long way to go, but the fastball is real.
Red Flags: Age and experience. While it is a good thing that Underwood was drafted at 17, it also means that he is a long way from reaching physical maturity. Further, the young righty has only a few dozen innings of professional experience, leaving him with hundreds of innings of minor league pitching ahead of him. There's just a lot that can go wrong, especially with a high intensity delivery.
Path to the Majors: It will be long and slow. Underwood will go one step at a time spending 2014 in Kane County, 2015 in Daytona, 2016 in Tennessee, and finally pushing for a job in Chicago in 2017 assuming everything goes as planned. Any hiccups along the way will postpone that arrival date.
Overall Projection: Like most teenagers, Underwood is extremely difficult to project given the limited body of information and the immense growth still to come. He really just needs to pitch a lot and develop consistency with his offerings. His ceiling is through the roof, but the most likely positive outcome for Underwood is that of an excellent 3rd starter for a contender or a back-of-the-bullpen reliever.
14. SS GLEYBER TORRES
DOB: 12/3/1996 (Age 16)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'0", 170 lbs.
Transactions: Signed as an international free agent by Chicago Cubs in 2013
2013 Stats: N/A
Offensive Profile: Torres features a big leg kick and plenty of hand movement to get into hitting position. However, once he gets there, he has a strong, compact stroke that enables him to spray hard contact all over the field. He doesn't run well now, and as he adds weight, it is highly unlikely that he gets any quicker.
Defensive Profile: Torres has a strong arm, certainly strong enough to play on the left side of the infield. Unfortunately, he has a strange throwing motion that engages the entire right side of his torso in one connected motion to generate this power, leaving me to question his ability to maintain his power with a quick release. I believe Torres ultimately ends up at second base where he should be a plus defender.
Red Flags: Age and advancement. Torres is only 16, so he has a long development in front of him. Strangely, because his game is so advanced for his age, some scouts worry that he may not have as much room to grow as a number of his peers. Torres has already signed his contract, so that is not a concern.
Path to the Majors: Like Jimenez, Torres will not start his professional career until 2014. Given his level of advancement, he will likely make his U.S. debut to end 2014 with a full season league in 2015. If his ceiling drops but his game adds polish, he could move very quickly, pushing for a Major League job around 2017.
Overall Projection: Torres could be a non-first base infielder with 60 power and 60 hit. Without game experience, evaluating his discipline is essentially impossible, although his advanced approach suggests that this will come. With below-average speed but as an above-average fielder with plus offense, Torres can be an excellent 2nd or 6th hitter for a contender.
15. RP ARODYS VIZCAINO
DOB: 11/13/1990 (Age 22)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'0", 190 lbs.
Transactions: Signed as an international free agent by New York Yankees in 2007; traded with Melky Cabrera and Mike Dunn to Atlanta Braves for Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan in 2009; traded with Jaye Chapman to Chicago Cubs for Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson in 2012
2013 Stats: N/A
Physical Profile: Vizcaino's main problem. While he has the stuff of a very good starting pitcher, his body has been unable to handle the amount of force his arsenal generates with multiple elbow surgeries in the past two years. Given his stature, Vizcaino is realistically limited to a bullpen role.
Pitch Profile: His pitches are still exciting with his electric fastball routinely coming in above 95 in relief appearances. In addition to his plus-plus fastball, he owns a plus power curveball. While he has thrown a changeup and a slider in the past and could still work to develop the offerings, the excellent fastball-curveball combination is his calling card.
Red Flags: Injury. Vizcaino was on the fast track to stardom, reaching the Major Leagues at 20 as a top-50 prospect in baseball. Since then, he hasn't thrown a pitch in a game.
Path to the Majors: There are two very different paths for Vizcaino, although both involve him participating in fall and winter leagues this year. If the Cubs are committed to stretching him out as a starter and developing his changeup, he will spend most or all of 2014 in Iowa. If they seek to use his power arsenal to fill the voids in the back end of the bullpen, Vizcaino may very well reach Chicago very early in 2014 despite having missed consecutive seasons.
Overall Projection: Even with the injury history, Vizcaino still has a big future. Any time a pitcher combines a 75 fastball with a 65 curveball, things are looking good. While his command will need time to return, Vizcaino should be a good closing option for a contender or at worst an excellent setup reliever.
16. CF BRETT JACKSON
DOB: 8/2/1988 (Age 24)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: L/R. 6'2", 220 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 31st overall by Chicago Cubs in 2009
2013 Stats: 61 Games @ Iowa (AAA): 242 PA, .223/.300/.367, 8.7% BB%, 31.8% K%, 6 HR, 3 3B, 7 2B, 7 SB
Offensive Profile: Any evaluation of Jackson comes with the caveat that he revamped his swing and approach in the offseason. As of the end of 2012, he had a quiet stance with his hands near the uniform logo before a complicated load into the hitting position with a noticeable leg kick and hand load. Jackson has been the poster child for athletic three true outcomes hitters with an extremely high number of strikeouts, buckets of walks, and good power. Despite having consistently strong BABIPs, Jackson's strikeouts will always limit his batting average and thus his on-base ceiling. His speed and base stealing ability are above-average.
Defensive Profile: Jackson has a very similar defensive profile to David DeJesus, although Jackson's is better thanks to his speed. He covers enough ground to play center field, although not an elite level. He also has enough of an arm to be a good corner outfielder, but it isn't a plus tool in a corner. Wherever he plays, Jackson is above-average with a chance for a bit more but no chance to be elite.
Red Flags: Strikeouts and disappearance. The strikeouts have stalled Jackson's career with a chance to kill it. More alarmingly, he appears to have disappeared from the Iowa Cubs for a number of weeks this year. Although the Chicago Tribune reported that he will report to Arizona to rehabilitate a leg injury before regaining confidence at Tennessee, the Iowa manager did not know of Jackson's whereabouts for a few weeks before the report. Clearly there is some concern about his relations with Iowa management.
Path to the Majors: Despite having already reached the Majors, Jackson actually has a good bit of development in front of him. He is athletic enough with plenty of baseball skills to be an above-average MLB starter. However, his strikeouts necessitated a revised approach at the plate and he needs repetitions. Even if the Cubs bring in a big free agent outfielder this offseason, Jackson should get a crack at winning a job if he can prove that he is still mentally engaged.
Overall Projection: Jackson's ceiling has plummeted over the last 12 months, tumbling from a likely above-average starter into the unknown. He still shows 55 power, 60 speed, 60 glove, and 60 discipline, but his hit tool may be in the 30 range. At this point, Jackson will probably be a strikeout-heavy reserve outfielder who adds extra value with his speed and defense. He's still likely a nice player to have around; it's just that the star ceiling that seemed reachable just two years ago is now a forgotten dream.
17. CF JACOB HANNEMANN
DOB: 4/29/1991 (Age 22)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: L/L. 6'1", 190 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 75th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2013
2013 Stats: 11 Games @ Boise (A-): 51 PA, .280/.294/.480, 2.0% BB%, 13.7% K%, 1 HR, 2 3B, 3 2B, 1 SB
Offensive Profile: Hannemann is very smooth and fluid at the plate. He has a compact stroke that enables him to make consistent contact while limiting his power. However, his frame and physicality are such that I wouldn't be surprised if the team elongated his swing a tiny bit in order to take advantage of his power potential. He is a great runner who should steal plenty of bases.
Defensive Profile: Hannemann's glove and his arm are diametrically opposed. He has more than enough speed to be a plus defender in center field, yet he has a subpar arm so he'll need to stay there.
Red Flags: Age and experience. Hannemann is already 22 in short-season A ball. While his reason is plenty understandable - he spent two years immediately after graduating high school on his Mormon mission - it nonetheless puts him well behind the developmental curve. He also missed offseason baseball workouts last year while on scholarship with the BYU football team. While reasonable, it is still lost developmental time.
Path to the Majors: It will be slow. I expect Hannemann to spend full seasons over the next three years at Kane County, Daytona, and Tennessee. He needs the repetitions. Depending on how his age-25 season goes at Tennessee, he could push for some playing time at the end of that year, 2016.
Overall Projection: Let's get one thing out of the way: Hannemann is not Matt Szczur. That isn't intended as a slight of Szczur; the two are just different types of players. Hannemann doesn't run quite as well as Szczur, but there should be much more power in his game. He could end up with a 60 hit, 55 power, 65 run, and 60 glove despite a 40 arm. It's almost impossible to project his discipline given how little baseball he has played, but he seems like a good kid and student, so this facet has a decent chance to develop. If that all comes to fruition, Hannemann will be an above-average center fielder who hits 2nd or 7th for a contender.
18. SP ALBERTO CABRERA
DOB: 10/25/1988 (Age 24)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'4", 210 lbs.
Transactions: Signed as an international free agent by Chicago Cubs in 2005
2013 Stats: 18 Games/18 Starts @ Tennessee (AA): 112.2 IP, 102 H, 39 BB (3.12 BB/9), 107 SO (8.55 SO/9), 10 HR (0.80 HR/9), 41 R, 3.20 ERA, 1.55 GO/AO
Physical Profile: Cabrera has the perfect build and the simple delivery needed to log serious innings. He can get a bit wild at times when reaching back for a little extra, but his frame is ideal.
Pitch Profile: Cabrera's fastball has been his calling card and with good reason. In the bullpen, he works in the mid-90s while he hangs around 92 in the rotation. His slider is a good pitch with the chance to be above-average and he also uses a changeup.
Red Flags: Changed projection. After spending all of 2012 in the bullpen, the organization apparently saw something in Cabrera that warranted another look in a starting job. Although it has been a tremendous success this year, it is bizarre that the team has changed their outlook on him so substantially.
Path to the Majors: After an excellent first half in Tennessee, Cabrera will get a shot to make plenty of starts in Iowa with the possibility of a look in Chicago given that he is already on the 40-man roster. He will have a chance to win a Major League job in Spring Training 2014.
Overall Projection: Cabrera is brutally difficult to peg. He probably ends up in the bullpen thanks to his ability to dial up his fastball, but his success as a starter could still give him a shot to be a swingman. With his arsenal and his developing pitchability, Cabrera should be able to carve out a career in the mold of Carlos Villanueva with more stuff, making plenty of starts but shifting to the bullpen when there is a surplus of starting pitching.
19. SP DILLON MAPLES
DOB: 5/9/1992 (Age 21)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'2", 195 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 429th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2011
2013 Stats: 11 Games/7 Starts @ Kane County (A), 1 Game @ Boise (A-): 34.2 IP, 33 H, 34 BB (8.05 BB/9), 34 SO (8.83 SO/9), 1 HR (0.26 HR/9), 37 R, 8.31 ERA, 1.88 GO/AO
Physical Profile: Maples has enough size to stick in a rotation, although he doesn't appear to have added much size since being drafted two summers ago. More troubling, Maples has struggled to make it to the mound, dealing with generic arm injuries thus far.
Pitch Profile: Maples works with a two pitch mix at this point with command lacking on both. He complements a low-90s straight fastball with a sweeping mid-70s curveball.
Red Flags: Injury and experience. Maples needed to pitch to develop his offerings, but vague arm troubles prevented him from doing so for almost two years. As a result, his is still effectively a high schooler on the development curve inching toward Rule V draft eligibility where some team may take a flyer on him.
Path to the Majors: It's a long one still. Despite signing for top-10 money, Maples needs to pitch a ton, so he will finish 2013 back at Boise before a return to Kane County in 2014. Maples is not going to move quickly, so 2015 will be spent in Daytona at which team the team must decide whether to protect him.
Overall Projection: Given the stunted nature of his development thus far, Maples may shift to the bullpen where he can add a few ticks to his fastball and enjoy an uptick in his curveball power as well. His current inability to control either delivery makes projecting him more difficult, but if everything comes together, Maples is a strong back-of-the-bullpen arm.
20. RP JUAN CARLOS PANIAGUA
DOB: 4/4/1990 (Age 23)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'1", 175 lbs.
Transactions: Signed as an international free agent by Arizona Diamondbacks in 2009 - contract terminated due to fraudulent paperwork; signed as an international free agent by New York Yankees in 2011 - contract terminated due to falsified documents; signed as an international free agent by Chicago Cubs in 2012.
2013 Stats: 4 Games/4 Starts @ Dominican Summer League Cubs (DSL), 1 Game/1 Start @ Arizona League Cubs (AZL), 1 Game/1 Start @ Kane County (A): 17.2 IP, 8 H, 6 BB (3.06 BB/9), 19 SO (9.68 SO/9), 0 HR, 3 R, 1.02 ERA, 1.06 GO/AO
Physical Profile: Despite having reached 23 years old due to numerous documentation fiascos, Paniagua still checks in at just 175 lbs. As such, it is nearly impossible to project him as a starting pitching option. He should be able to add a bit of weight and settle into his relief role.
Pitch Profile: It's a shame that Paniagua is of such a slight build because his pitches suggest a starting future. He has a low-90s fastball well complemented by a strong low-80s slider and a similarly useful mid-80s changeup. With command and control, he has a strong starting repertoire.
Red Flags: Identity and experience. Being the third team to sign a player who has twice had his contract voided for identity issues hardly inspires confidence. Plus, as a result of the prior terminations, Paniagua has missed out on years of development time.
Path to the Majors: Despite being 23, Paniagua needs to log lots of innings. While it is possible that he could move relatively quickly, I expect that he will finish out this year in Kane County before spending all of 2014 starting in Daytona. At that point the decision will be made as to his future role with that decision driving the timeline. If he is moved to the bullpen, he could be an in-house addition as early as late 2015.
Overall Projection: Without the identity crisis, might have already worked his way onto an MLB roster. However, because he missed out on years of development and he is undersized, I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs are content with developing him as a reliever. If so, Paniagua has the arsenal to be an excellent back-of-the-bullpen arm.
30 MORE IN ONE SENTENCE
21. SP ROB ZASTRYZNY: The 2nd round pick has a lively fastball and an advanced feel for pitching, BUT his curveball has a long way to go.
22. SP TREVOR CLIFTON: The 12th round pick signed for 3rd round money on the strength of a mid-90s fastball, BUT his is very raw, needing to add lots of size.
23. 3B CHRISTIAN VILLANUEVA: Acquired in the Ryan Dempster trade, Villanueva has MLB-caliber defensive chops and good power, BUT his hit tool renders him only a decent prospect.
24. 2B LOGAN WATKINS: A one-level-at-a-time prospect, Watkins has elite discipline and stunning power for a tiny frame, BUT his hit tool is poor and he doesn't bring enough on the basepaths or in the field to make up for it.
25. RP ZACH ROSSCUP: Acquired in the Matt Garza trade, Rosscup has the look of a good lefty reliever, BUT that is also his ceiling.
26. SP ERLING MORENO: Another July 2nd signing, Moreno has a great pitcher's body with a developing repertoire, BUT a tremendously long way to go.
27. 3B JEIMER CANDELARIO: The 19-year-old switch hitter is worth monitoring while holding his own at Kane County, BUT he also hasn't shown any plus tools.
28. COF JOHN ANDREOLI: He can run like the wind and makes regular strong contact, BUT there is no power to his game whatsoever and his speed is probably only a 70 or 75, not 80.
29. SP BARRET LOUX: The former 6th overall selection in 2010 has managed only middling results despite a strong track record, BUT injuries appear to have sapped him of most of his velocity.
30. SP TYLER SKULINA: The imposing 6'6" righty has a strong fastball-curveball combination, BUT his lacking changeup probably limits him to the bullpen.
31. SP JEFFERSON MEJIA: The rare 18-year-old who signed on July 2nd, Mejia already works in the low-90s, BUT his arsenal is underdeveloped and his mechanics need an overhaul.
32. RP FRANK DEL VALLE: The Cuban lefty closer at Daytona has serious heat and a useful curveball, BUT he has largely foundered despite his move from the rotation to the bullpen.
33. RP TREY MCNUTT: The big righty burst onto the prospect scene with a huge 2010 spanning three levels, BUT he hasn't made it past Tennessee despite three full season cracks.
34. RP TONY ZYCH: He has a mid-90s tailing fastball and a good mid-80s slider that should have him pitching in the 7th inning, BUT he is destined for some injury troubles given the violence in his delivery and the 7th inning role is also his ceiling.
35. CF MATT SZCZUR: The former football star at Villanova still runs very well, hits well, and plays a good center field, BUT he brings absolutely no power to the table and doesn't draw enough walks to make up for it.
36. SP AUSTIN KIRK: Dylan Bundy's high school teammate has filled out his lefty frame and features a usable arsenal, BUT he has been pummeled upon reaching Tennessee as a 23-year-old.
37. COF REGGIE GOLDEN: After struggling to get his professional career going, the 21-year-old former 2nd round choice enjoyed an explosive June at Kane County flashing good power and solid hitting ability, BUT he still has numerous holes in his game with an inability to make contact threatening to knock him out completely.
38. 2B WES DARVILL: The lanky Canadian finally enjoyed some success and has flashed some good secondary skills, BUT none of his tools are loud and his power remains absent.
39. 3B JOSH VITTERS: The former 3rd overall selection crushed the Pacific Coast League in 2012 en route to his Major League call up, BUT he never developed his discipline, has middling power, and has been injured for most of his age-23 season.
40. 1B ROCK SHOULDERS: A poor man's Dan Vogelbach with an even better name, Shoulders has big power, an adequate hit tool, and excellent discipline, BUT he strikes out way too much for a bat only player and has no value on defense or the basepaths.
41. RP P.J. FRANCESCON: An intriguing player to me, Francescon has borderline MLB stuff and has produced solid results, BUT his frame is slight and none of his pitches can carry him putting immense pressure on his command.
42. COF ZEKE DEVOSS: DeVoss has superb speed, otherworldly discipline and great defense, BUT he cannot hit and lacks power, especially for a corner outfielder.
43. RP ARMANDO RIVERO: The Cuban bonus baby came with a big arsenal, BUT the results have been horrific thus far for the 25-year-old in A ball.
44. SP ERIC JOKISCH: The big lefty Northwestern alum has climbed the organizational ladder well without much in the way of stuff, BUT he appears to have stalled out at Tennessee.
45. 2B GIOSKAR AMAYA: The 20-year-old Venezuelan has shown across-the-board average skills at Kane County, BUT his strikeout total is off the charts and will stomp out his career without an explosion of power.
46. COF YASIEL BALAGUERT: The hefty Dominican has crushed Northwest League pitching showing power, hit, and discipline, BUT he is a bat-only outfielder without hugely projectable offensive skills.
47. SP JAMES PUGLIESE: The tall righty has shown great improvement during his second attempt at Boise, BUT he is slow on the development curve and does not have an exciting arsenal.
48. 1B DUSTIN GEIGER: Geiger has a pretty well developed offensive approach that enables him to draw walks and make consistent solid contact, BUT his bat will have to carry him with little defensive value and no speed and the bat isn't special enough to do so.
49. RP KYLER BURKE: The former outfielder has succeeded in his transition to the Daytona starting rotation and he has enough with his high-80s fastball to make it as a relief option, BUT his pitches are not special and quickly developing command is his only hope.
50. RP LUIS LIRIA: Liria has a huge, mid-90s fastball, BUT he has never produced and has no command whatsoever.
*NOTE: Since I wrote this list last month and only touched it up to publish, I failed to mention the three players the Cubs have acquired via trade. SP Jake Arrieta isn't a prospect with 63 MLB starts under his belt. RP Pedro Strop also wouldn't make the list due to extensive MLB experience. However, Ivan Pineyro would. So here's a bonus entry that would slot in 36th (after Szczur and before Kirk):
RP IVAN PINEYRO: Currently a starter, the diminutive Pineyro has a strong fastball-changeup combination, BUT his curveball is lacking and his size will prevent him from sticking as a starting pitching possibility.
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