Last month, I outlined my case for the four candidates I'd like for the Cubs to consider at 1.4 in tomorrow's draft. You can read the full post above or this simple recap:
1. Brady Aiken is the class of this class;
2. Carlos Rodon's slider alone makes him a 1.1 candidate and a low-to-mid-90s fastball is excellent too; he gets dinged a bit for pitching in college (where coaches want to ride his arm) instead of the pros for the last three years, but he's still an ace/#2 caliber pitcher;
3. Tyler Kolek throws 102 with a massive body; there are problems to work on but if you can't make that skill set into a big-time starter, there's no hope for your franchise; and
4. Alex Jackson has the power and hit tool to justify a top-five pick and plenty of athleticism to make that play in RF/LF; if he stays a C, he's a 1.1 candidate.
For as difficult as the MLB draft may be, it's really very simple: find good players, draft them, develop them, and reap the benefits.
If the Cubs call another name, I'm going to think that they made a poor choice. If it's Nick Gordon, they overvalued his athleticism and forgot to appreciate the need to get a big bat in the top five. If it's Max Pentecost, they goofily decided to load up on a player who falls to the second round for signability reasons. Diversifying risk is a good idea; punting on a top-five talent to take advantage of a faller later in the draft is a poor idea. It just is.
Part of the problem with the underslot approach is that this method makes significantly more sense for teams with lots of highish picks. The Cubs are not such a team. By the time the fourth round shows up on Friday afternoon, the Cubs will have made three picks while every other divisional foe will have made at least four; the Cardinals and Pirates will both have made five selections apiece. With so many picks, those teams can far better absorb the risk of saving for a draft-day slider knowing that they will add plenty of talent nonetheless.
On the contrary, if the Cubs select Pentecost and sign him for $2M under slot, they would absolutely require a later pick to agree to a deal for approximately $2M over slot, a player that has been passed on at least 44 times in favor of other, mostly superior prospects. If they can't find a taker for their later cash, drafting Pentecost is a total waste. Don't do it.
And don't draft Michael Conforto at 1.4. Conforto looks like a guy with a nice bat and a good approach. He's the right kind of bat to have in the middle of a lineup for a few years with more power and less batting average. But he's a poor outfield defender without much/any projection out there, portending a move to 1B or dreadful defensive value if he stays in the outfield with his weak arm. He doesn't run well either. Drafting Conforto at 1.4 is like drafting Tim Jennings with a top five pick in the NFL draft: you'd be getting a useful, starting-caliber player, but you can do significantly better in the top five.
So, all that to say this: please oh please draft one of those top four players. Grab a future rotation piece or middle-of-the-order bat.
In 2008, the Rays decided to save money at the top of the draft and selected SS Tim Beckham over the more highly rated C Buster Posey. In 2007, the Royals (3B Mike Moustakas), Cubs (3B Josh Vitters), and Pirates (LHP Daniel Moskos) all decided to avoid a massive payout in passing on the draft's second best player, C Matt Wieters. Wieters signed the largest bonus of any player in the draft, even larger than #1 overall pick LHP David Price, but the teams that passed on him categorically regret the terrible decision.
Not to pick on the Rays, but 2005 represented arguably the worst violation of the "Best Player Available" rule; it's difficult not to wonder what might have been. The Rays went substantially under slot with injured righty Wade Townsend at #8 for just $1.5M; the next 12 picks all received larger bonuses. The next four players chosen? RHP Mike Pelfrey, OF Cameron Maybin, OF Andrew McCutchen, and OF Jay Bruce. Pelfrey (9.6), Maybin (8.7), McCutchen (29.0), and Bruce (16.1) have combined to produce 63.4 WAR since 2005 with Maybin, Bruce, and McCutchen all in their primes as strong contributors. Townsend never made it past AA. But at least the Rays saved a couple hundred grand.
Don't get cute by going under slot. Not unless the Cubs really need something else to regret for decades. In my relatively short lifetime, Greg Maddux the Brave and the 8th inning of Game 6 are plenty for me.
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