I already spilled 4,300 words on a complete mock offseason here. It was very fun and I hope you check it out.
The toughest part of that mock, as with any mock: putting together trades that don't yield rolling eyes. So, I'm going to try another mock offseason that takes the same free agent deals, the same starting draft position, and then runs back the draft, intentionally losing each deal on the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart. For purposes of this mock, future picks will be assumed to be mid-round selections, discounted by 25%.
Let's do this.
Bears trade #1 to Texans for #2, #65, and #104
Jimmy Johnson chart evaluation: Bears trade 3,000 for 2,951 (2,600 + 265 + 86)
This value feels low, especially in light of the Bears-49ers trade in 2017 to move from #3 to #2 that cost two 3rds and a 4th. But I'm losing every deal. Good start.
The Bears then turn to the Colts, Raiders, Falcons, Panthers, Commanders, Titans, and maybe even the Lions or Jets to see who most desperately wants the QB of their choice. And they take the highest offer. Given the public comments from Colts GM Chris Ballard, I think he'll ultimately be the one to pony up.
Bears trade #2 to Colts for #4, #35, and #79
Jimmy Johnson chart evaluation: Bears trade 2,600 for 2,545 (1,800 + 550 + 195)
Getting one 3rd instead of a 2024 1st and 2nd is much less fun. But I lost again, per the rules.
Thankfully, there's still tons of value on the board: Stroud, Carter, Murphy, Wilson, Bresee, etc. all remain available. Somebody wants Stroud, right?
Bears trade #4, #79, and #149 to Raiders for #7 and #38
Jimmy Johnson chart evaluation: Bears trade 2,025.2 (1,800 + 195 + 30.2) for 2,020 (1,500 + 520)
This deal seems downright unrealistic, though it does still kick Stroud to a non-Lions team (though in this mock, the Raiders took Carter and the Lions got Stroud anyway).
#7: Bears select Clemson DT Bryan Bresee
The centerpiece of the defensive line rebuild better come in free agency. The capstone, however, comes here as Bresee is an explosive force from day one. I still prefer Clemson DE Myles Murphy, but I don't think he gets out of the top five. Bresee is disruptive, though it renders my free agent acquisitions less than ideal. Tyree Wilson could've been the pick, but Bresee is too good in a draft shallow on impact DTs.
Bears trade #35 to Saints for #40, #147, and #186
Jimmy Johnson chart evaluation: Bears trade 550 for 546.4 (500 + 31 + 15.4)
Still plenty of good players on the board, but this trade down is less fun than getting #71.
Bears trade #38 and #186 to Falcons for #44 and #110
Jimmy Johnson chart evaluation: Bears trade 535.4 (520 + 15.4) for 534 (460 + 74)
#40: Bears select Arkansas LB Drew Sanders
OLB definitely isn't the biggest need, especially in an era where the nickel is the base defense. But Sanders justifies deviating from linemen here for me. I'm a huge fan of his and think that he'd be a plug and play three-down starter.
#44: Bears select Tennessee North Dakota State OT Cody Mauch
Mauch might be the most different lineman in the entire draft as compared to Darnell Wright, my earlier pick. But he's a nice, athletic RT prospect.
#54: Bears select Kansas State DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah
This is great value, just like it was earlier. Anudike-Uzomah is very strong with an NFL body. His selection is bad news for Trevis Gipson.
Bears Trade #64 to Rams for #69, #170, and #254
Jimmy Johnson chart evaluation: Bears trade 270 for 267.8 (245 + 21.8 + 1)
This was a bad trade, as the Rams jumped me for Jalin Hyatt.
Bears Trade #65 to Packers for #78 and #116
Jimmy Johnson chart evaluation: Bears trade 265 for 262 (200 + 62)
#69: Bears select Iowa TE Sam LaPorta
Iowa TEs are probably the safest bets in the world of football.
#78: Bears select Maryland CB Deonte Banks
Banks is a great fit in a zone-heavy scheme with a long frame and long arms. I'm always on the lookout for the next Peanut Tillman, and Banks has the body to get there, though he also lacks the speed to get drafted much higher than this. Drafting Banks enables Kyler Gordon to spend even more time in the slot.
#103: Bears select Texas A&M CB Jaylon Jones
Very much not a position of need, but Jones represents marvelous value here.
#104: Bears select Wake Forest WR A.T. Perry
Not the ideal outcome for the WR upgrade, but that's not Perry's fault. He's plenty interesting in his own right. Long, lanky, and extremely productive even against Clemson, Perry is a strong addition to the club.
#110: Bears select Notre Dame S Brandon Joseph
No need to trade for Joseph here. He's a nice addition to the roster.
#116: Bears select South Carolina DT Zacch Pickens
Pickens isn't a great fit on the roster at the moment either, but as a productive five-star in a big frame, he's strong value here.
Bears trade DE Trevis Gipson to Chiefs for #123
Gipson plateaued in 2022 and he has the unfortunate reality of having been brought in my the Ryan Pace regime. The Chiefs gladly trade a Day Three pick for a fringe starter during their window of contention.
#123: Bears select Tulane RB Tyjae Spears
I was high on him before the Cotton Bowl. Now everyone is high on Spears. I take Spears in every mock.
Bears trade #147 and #170 to Bengals for #130 and #203
Jimmy Johnson chart evaluation: Bears trade 52.8 (31 + 21.8) for 50.6 (42 +8.6)
#130: Bears select Princeton WR Andrei Iosivas
Big, productive, and fast...but in the Ivy League. This is a great spot for the unknown Tiger.
#134: Bears select Michigan C Olusegun Oluwatimi
I don't understand why his profile is so low. Perhaps we'll find out in the coming months. For now, I'll take my chances with a Michigan interior offensive lineman.
#145: Bears select Eastern Michigan DE Jose Ramirez
This is the perfect spot for a twitchy pass rusher, albeit one in need of more development.
#203: Bears select Alabama TE Cameron Latu
Latu is raw and will need serious development. That's what the late 6th round is for, right?
#217: Bears select Pittsburgh LB SirVocea Dennis
Dennis isn't a tremendous athlete, but what do you expect here?
#254: Bears select Michigan K Jake Moody
Is it necessary to use this pick on Moody? Perhaps, perhaps not. But he represents a delightful upgrade over Cairo Santos on a cheaper deal, and I like getting control of Moody's rights via the selection.
Following the free agency and draft above, below is the final roster for 2023. Free agents signings are italicized and draftees are bolded.
QB: Justin Fields, Trevor Siemian
HB: Khalil Herbert, Tyjae Spears, Trestan Ebner, __________
FB: __________
WR: Chase Claypool, Darnell Mooney, A.T. Perry, Velus Jones Jr., Equanimeous St. Brown, Andrei Iosivas
TE: Cole Kmet, Sam LaPorta, Cameron Latu
OT: Braxton Jones, Cody Mauch, Larry Borom, Alex Leatherwood
OG: Teven Jenkins, Ja'Tyre Carter
C: Ethan Pocic, Olusegun Oluwatimi, Doug Kramer
DE: Marcus Davenport, Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Jose Ramirez, Dominique Robinson, Clelin Ferrell Trevis Gipson
DT: Javon Hargrave, Sheldon Rankins, Bryan Bresee, Zacch Pickens
OLB: David Long, Drew Sanders, ____________
ILB: Jack Sanborn, SirVocea Dennis
CB: Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Deonte Banks, Jaylon Jones (A&M), Kindle Vildor, Elijah Hicks, Jaylon Jones (Ole Miss)
S: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, Brandon Joseph, DeAndre Houston-Carson, ___________
ST: Jake Moody, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales, Cairo Santos
There are some really obvious changes from the earlier mock: the wide receiver additions are far less captivating, the offensive line got a boost but doesn't feel fixed in the same way, and, most notably, there aren't any additional picks added to the war chest for 2024 and beyond.
On the other hand, the DT group is comically better than at present and the defensive backfield looks fantastic. The open competition for the LG spot to fill the 5th job on the line with Jones-?????-Pocic-Jenkins-Mauch has five viable candidates, and that's not a bad thing. But this mock draft leaves the Bears hoping that Claypool is a revelation when healthy, Perry and/or Iosivas emerge immediately, or Velus Jones takes a leap in year two.
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