I already spilled 4,300 words on a complete mock offseason here and prepared an alternate draft using the Jimmy Johnson draft pick value chart here, intentionally losing every trade. Those were both very fun and I hope you check them out.
The toughest part of mocks remains putting together trades that don't yield rolling eyes. So, I'm going to try one more mock offseason that takes the same free agent deals, the same starting draft position, and then runs back the draft, utilizing the Rich Hill trade value chart and hunting for the fairest deals possible according to that chart, not relying on the PFF mock draft tool to determine trade fairness. For purposes of this mock, future picks will be assumed to be mid-round selections, discounted by 25%.
Let's do this.
Bears trade #1 to Texans for #2, #33, #65, and #104
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 1,000 for 1,009 (717 + 180 + 78 + 34)
This value feels just about right. I can see settling into this zone, though I could also see the Bears settling at #65, #73, and #104. The chart sure does like this deal.
You know the drill now: the Bears then turn to the Colts, Raiders, Falcons, Panthers, Commanders, Titans, and maybe even the Lions or Jets to see who most desperately wants the QB of their choice. And they take the highest offer. Given the public comments from Colts GM Chris Ballard, I think he'll ultimately be the one to pony up.
Bears trade #2 to Colts for #4, #35, and #79
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 717 for 718 (491 + 170 + 57)
Wow. The Hill and Johnson charts see this deal playing out very similarly. Much, much lighter than Bears fans hope and assume.
Thankfully, there's still tons of value on the board: Stroud, Anderson, Murphy, Wilson, Bresee, etc. all remain available. Somebody wants Stroud, right?
Bears trade #4 to Raiders for #7 and #70Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 491 for 496 (426 + 70)
I shared thoughts on Anderson earlier. He's too good not to draft here.
Bears trade #33 to Buccaneers for #50, #82, and #154
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 180 for 182 (115 + 54 + 13)
This feels like pretty decent value here. Admittedly, it's tough to swallow trading down so far here, but the extra picks are necessary and the best players on the board aren't a good match for the Bears' needs.
Bears trade #35 to Panthers for #39 and #146
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 170 for 170 (153 + 17)
I think that the Bears would get a 4th here in real life, not a 5th.
#39: Bears select Tennessee OT Darnell Wright
Glad to see Wright again. I like him.
#50: Bears select Minnesota C John Michael Schmitz
A perfect landing spot. Schmitz can start at LG and work his way to C as Pocic ages. Perfect.
#54: Bears select Penn State WR Parker Washington
I think Washington climbs in the draft process. He's deceptively athletic, has good hands, and a YAC machine. He looks like a RB but plays as a true WR. I think he'd be a great fit in the Bears offense.
I felt confident taking Washington because (i) he's the only WR I liked in this zone, (ii) there were half a dozen edge rushers that I liked in the next batch of players, and (iii) I picked again in 10 picks. So what happens? Five straight edges to end the 2nd. Argh.
Bears Trade #64 and #217 to Cardinals for #66 and #178
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 83 (80 + 3) for 83 (76 + 7)
I like this deal.
#65: Bears select Iowa TE Sam LaPorta
Iowa TEs are probably the safest bets in the world of football.
#66: Bears select Wisconsin DT Keeanu Benton
This may be high for Benton, but he's the classic run stuffer in the heart of a defense.
Bears Trade #70, #154, and #178 to Jets for #74 and #112
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 90 (70 + 13 + 7) for 94 (64 + 30)
Bears Trade #74 to Chiefs for #94 and #133
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 64 for 63 (41 + 22)
#79: Bears select Texas OLB DeMarvion Overshown
Overshown is undersized, but the Bears desperately need a fast OLB.
#82: Bears select Notre Dame DE Isaiah Foskey
Every draft has a guy who falls and in this PFF mock, Foskey is a guy who sinks. He should be able to contribute early and has a good, though not elite, ceiling.
#94: Bears select Florida DT Gervon Dexter
The Bears end another slide and get a rotational defensive lineman.
Bears Trade #134 and #146 to Eagles for #95
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 39 (22 + 17) for 40
I really liked two of the CBs on the board here -- Utah's Clark Phillips III and Texas A&M's Jaylon Jones -- as well as as pair of non-corners -- USC G Andrew Vorhees and Notre Dame S Brandon Joseph. This trade up was an easy choice.
#95: Bears select USC G Andrew Vorhees
Vorhees could be a plug-and-play starter. Easy pick.
Bears Trade #104 and #136 to Browns for #99 and #143
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 55 (34 + 21) for 55 (37 + 18)
#96: Bears select Utah CB Clark Phillips III
Did I need to come up for Phillips? I don't know. But I'm glad that I did. I like him despite the small stature.
#103: Bears select Ole Miss RB Zach Evans
Evans has the frame and skills to be an every-down back.
#112: Bears select Princeton WR Andrei Iosivas
Big, productive, and fast...but in the Ivy League. This is a great spot for the unknown Tiger.
Bears trade DE Trevis Gipson to Chiefs for #123
Gipson plateaued in 2022 and he has the unfortunate reality of having been brought in my the Ryan Pace regime. The Chiefs gladly trade a Day Three pick for a fringe starter during their window of contention.
#123: Bears select Auburn OLB Owen Pappoe
Pappoe was never particularly scary at Auburn, but all of the measurables are there to be a force. It's worth a shot.
#133: Bears select Iowa CB Riley Moss
Moss has a big enough body to be a versatile piece in the defensive backfield.
#143: Bears select Florida S Rashad Torrence II
Torrence plays a similar style to Jaquan Brisker, but he may also have just enough quickness to spend some time in the slot.
Bears Trade #149 to Buccaneers for #154 and #235
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 15 for 15 (13 + 2)
#154: Bears select Kansas State RB Deuce Vaughn
Vaughn is a complementary piece as a quick back who can be used as a pass catcher out of the backfield. Very different from Evans.
#235: Bears select Michigan K Jake Moody
Is it necessary to use this pick on Moody? Perhaps, perhaps not. But he represents a delightful upgrade over Cairo Santos on a cheaper deal, and I like getting control of Moody's rights via the selection.
Following the free agency and draft above, below is the final roster for 2023. Free agents signings are italicized and draftees are bolded.
QB: Justin Fields, Trevor Siemian
HB: Khalil Herbert, Zach Evans, Trestan Ebner, Deuce Vaughn
FB: __________
WR: Chase Claypool, Darnell Mooney, Parker Washington, Velus Jones Jr., Equanimeous St. Brown, Andrei Iosivas
TE: Cole Kmet, Sam LaPorta, ____________
OT: Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Larry Borom, Alex Leatherwood
OG: Teven Jenkins, Andrew Vorhees, Ja'Tyre Carter
C: Ethan Pocic, John Michael Schmitz Doug Kramer
DE: Marcus Davenport, Will Anderson Jr., Isaiah Foskey, Dominique Robinson, Clelin Ferrell Trevis Gipson
DT: Javon Hargrave, Sheldon Rankins, Keeanu Benton, Gervon Dexter
OLB: David Long, DeMarvion Overshown, Owen Pappoe
ILB: Jack Sanborn, ____________,
CB: Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Clark Phillips III, Kindle Vildor, Riley Moss, Jaylon Jones
S: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, Rashad Torrence II, DeAndre Houston-Carson, Elijah Hicks
ST: Jake Moody, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales, Cairo Santos
This mock represents a middle ground between the earliest mock and the losing mock: it does feel like most every position group is "fixed" yet, most notably, there aren't any additional picks added to the war chest for 2024 and beyond.
It's amazing how many holes can be filled with 17 draft picks!
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